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Christine Michael (1 Viewer)

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I commented on it in another thread, but there's been a pretty steady positive buzz out of Seahawks training camp about Christine Michael.

This is hot off the presses from an observer at today's practice:

Michael had another really nice day. I like to refer to him as Chrstine "The Future" Michael. You can tell this guy is going to be special, has the power of Lynch and the speed of a guy like Leon. Caught the ball well and ran with authority, very exciting guy.
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I've heard nothing but good things about him so far. If you still have the chance to acquire him for a modest price, I'd look into it.

I mentioned earlier in the thread that I recommend grabbing Spencer Ware off waivers as an insurance policy if you have Michael and as a deep stash even if you don't. There was a lot of talk about Seattle trying him at fullback and I know that he got some snaps there earlier this past week, but it seems like they're shifting him back to RB. Another quote from the same observer:

Ware took primarily running back snaps, and is a thumper when he runs. He displays solid hands and vision as well. Definitely see him more as a running back than a fullback.
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From what I gather, Ware didn't fare too well at FB. No surprise really given his size. He's only about 220 pounds when he's in shape. Not heavy enough to take on linebackers as a lead blocker in the running game. This is good news for FF owners, as he'll obviously have more value at this position. He's a deep league special because his immediate prospects are nonexistent with Lynch/Michael/Turbin on the roster, but it will be interesting to see if he can claw his way onto this roster.

 
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I consider Michael a top 5 talent in rookie drafts, but I still don't like his situation. He can become a star in the NFL, so there's value in that for sure. He's better than Turbin and Lynch if his head is on straight.. that's a big if. Too much has to go right for him to be a stud. It's a shame I have to bet against him. I'm not waiting 3 years just to get three good games from him.

 
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EBF said:
I commented on it in another thread, but there's been a pretty steady positive buzz out of Seahawks training camp about Christine Michael.

This is hot off the presses from an observer at today's practice:

Michael had another really nice day. I like to refer to him as Chrstine "The Future" Michael. You can tell this guy is going to be special, has the power of Lynch and the speed of a guy like Leon. Caught the ball well and ran with authority, very exciting guy.
Click to expand...
I've heard nothing but good things about him so far. If you still have the chance to acquire him for a modest price, I'd look into it.

I mentioned earlier in the thread that I recommend grabbing Spencer Ware off waivers as an insurance policy if you have Michael and as a deep stash even if you don't. There was a lot of talk about Seattle trying him at fullback and I know that he got some snaps there earlier this past week, but it seems like they're shifting him back to RB. Another quote from the same observer:

Ware took primarily running back snaps, and is a thumper when he runs. He displays solid hands and vision as well. Definitely see him more as a running back than a fullback.
Click to expand...
From what I gather, Ware didn't fare too well at FB. No surprise really given his size. He's only about 220 pounds when he's in shape. Not heavy enough to take on linebackers as a lead blocker in the running game. This is good news for FF owners, as he'll obviously have more value at this position. He's a deep league special because his immediate prospects are nonexistent with Lynch/Michael/Turbin on the roster, but it will be interesting to see if he can claw his way onto this roster.
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Saw him in person and he is the most impressive back in camp and the most impressive I have seen in a hawks uniform since Ahman green.

 
Just went at pick 7.08 in my 14 team PPR dynasty start-up. I'm not happy about it, I had been trying to trade up for half a round to snag him earlier than I thought anyone else would consider him. I just knew that the minute the last startable RB went off the board (Mendenhall) people would start reaching as deep as they had to for the young talent with 3-down potential (Michael, Pierce, Lattimore, Brown, Tate).

The rest of those guys are all still on the board, but I was set on Michael. Pissed.

 
I like taking risk on talent despite knuckleheadedness, and I am thinking about him at 1.7 in a rookie draft.

Doubt he will be there at 2.7 with the hype growing.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Just went at pick 7.08 in my 14 team PPR dynasty start-up. I'm not happy about it, I had been trying to trade up for half a round to snag him earlier than I thought anyone else would consider him. I just knew that the minute the last startable RB went off the board (Mendenhall) people would start reaching as deep as they had to for the young talent with 3-down potential (Michael, Pierce, Lattimore, Brown, Tate).

The rest of those guys are all still on the board, but I was set on Michael. Pissed.
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That's why god invented tiers. Keep your head up.
 
I own him in all my dynasty leagues. Love hearing the good buzz. I drafted him because he was the very pick after Eddie Lacy. I think he holds his own against any back in this class. I think it's pretty obvious that character concerns held him back. If he can keep his head on straight he'll be something. If he can't he won't. But the talent is there.

 
ImTheScientist said:
EBF said:
I commented on it in another thread, but there's been a pretty steady positive buzz out of Seahawks training camp about Christine Michael.

This is hot off the presses from an observer at today's practice:

Michael had another really nice day. I like to refer to him as Chrstine "The Future" Michael. You can tell this guy is going to be special, has the power of Lynch and the speed of a guy like Leon. Caught the ball well and ran with authority, very exciting guy.
Click to expand...
I've heard nothing but good things about him so far. If you still have the chance to acquire him for a modest price, I'd look into it.

I mentioned earlier in the thread that I recommend grabbing Spencer Ware off waivers as an insurance policy if you have Michael and as a deep stash even if you don't. There was a lot of talk about Seattle trying him at fullback and I know that he got some snaps there earlier this past week, but it seems like they're shifting him back to RB. Another quote from the same observer:

Ware took primarily running back snaps, and is a thumper when he runs. He displays solid hands and vision as well. Definitely see him more as a running back than a fullback.
Click to expand...
From what I gather, Ware didn't fare too well at FB. No surprise really given his size. He's only about 220 pounds when he's in shape. Not heavy enough to take on linebackers as a lead blocker in the running game. This is good news for FF owners, as he'll obviously have more value at this position. He's a deep league special because his immediate prospects are nonexistent with Lynch/Michael/Turbin on the roster, but it will be interesting to see if he can claw his way onto this roster.
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Saw him in person and he is the most impressive back in camp and the most impressive I have seen in a hawks uniform since Ahman green.
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High praise, and while I am also bullish on his dynasty potential, there was also a very impressive play by another 'Hawks back that comes to mind:

Seahawks RB Lynch ends Saints’ title run

 
Daru99 said:
I like taking risk on talent despite knuckleheadedness, and I am thinking about him at 1.7 in a rookie draft.

Doubt he will be there at 2.7 with the hype growing.
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Yeah his buzz is killing his value. I got him at 2.12 on May 30th and 3.10 on May 22nd in a different league.

That ship has sailed.

 
Faust said:
ImTheScientist said:
EBF said:
I commented on it in another thread, but there's been a pretty steady positive buzz out of Seahawks training camp about Christine Michael.

This is hot off the presses from an observer at today's practice:

Michael had another really nice day. I like to refer to him as Chrstine "The Future" Michael. You can tell this guy is going to be special, has the power of Lynch and the speed of a guy like Leon. Caught the ball well and ran with authority, very exciting guy.
Click to expand...
I've heard nothing but good things about him so far. If you still have the chance to acquire him for a modest price, I'd look into it.

I mentioned earlier in the thread that I recommend grabbing Spencer Ware off waivers as an insurance policy if you have Michael and as a deep stash even if you don't. There was a lot of talk about Seattle trying him at fullback and I know that he got some snaps there earlier this past week, but it seems like they're shifting him back to RB. Another quote from the same observer:

Ware took primarily running back snaps, and is a thumper when he runs. He displays solid hands and vision as well. Definitely see him more as a running back than a fullback.
Click to expand...
From what I gather, Ware didn't fare too well at FB. No surprise really given his size. He's only about 220 pounds when he's in shape. Not heavy enough to take on linebackers as a lead blocker in the running game. This is good news for FF owners, as he'll obviously have more value at this position. He's a deep league special because his immediate prospects are nonexistent with Lynch/Michael/Turbin on the roster, but it will be interesting to see if he can claw his way onto this roster.
Click to expand...
Saw him in person and he is the most impressive back in camp and the most impressive I have seen in a hawks uniform since Ahman green.
Click to expand...
High praise, and while I am also bullish on his dynasty potential, there was also a very impressive play by another 'Hawks back that comes to mind:

Seahawks RB Lynch ends Saints’ title run
Click to expand...
BEAST MODE engaged

 
Faust said:
ImTheScientist said:
EBF said:
I commented on it in another thread, but there's been a pretty steady positive buzz out of Seahawks training camp about Christine Michael.

This is hot off the presses from an observer at today's practice:

Michael had another really nice day. I like to refer to him as Chrstine "The Future" Michael. You can tell this guy is going to be special, has the power of Lynch and the speed of a guy like Leon. Caught the ball well and ran with authority, very exciting guy.
Click to expand...
I've heard nothing but good things about him so far. If you still have the chance to acquire him for a modest price, I'd look into it.

I mentioned earlier in the thread that I recommend grabbing Spencer Ware off waivers as an insurance policy if you have Michael and as a deep stash even if you don't. There was a lot of talk about Seattle trying him at fullback and I know that he got some snaps there earlier this past week, but it seems like they're shifting him back to RB. Another quote from the same observer:

Ware took primarily running back snaps, and is a thumper when he runs. He displays solid hands and vision as well. Definitely see him more as a running back than a fullback.
Click to expand...
From what I gather, Ware didn't fare too well at FB. No surprise really given his size. He's only about 220 pounds when he's in shape. Not heavy enough to take on linebackers as a lead blocker in the running game. This is good news for FF owners, as he'll obviously have more value at this position. He's a deep league special because his immediate prospects are nonexistent with Lynch/Michael/Turbin on the roster, but it will be interesting to see if he can claw his way onto this roster.
Click to expand...
Saw him in person and he is the most impressive back in camp and the most impressive I have seen in a hawks uniform since Ahman green.
Click to expand...
High praise, and while I am also bullish on his dynasty potential, there was also a very impressive play by another 'Hawks back that comes to mind:

Seahawks RB Lynch ends Saints’ title run
Click to expand...
Don't get me wrong....I love beast mode.... just feel that Michael is more physically talented.

 
I read about Seahawks TC reports every day and am reading nothing but huge praise for Michael. I'm hoping he can land the starting KR role in Harvin's absence. Also, Turbin better get healthy quickly, because if Michael proves he can be a reliable pass blocker, he could become the backup. Although I wouldn't bet on that just yet for this year.

 
I really need to get back around and update some of my pre-draft profiles. Michael's 40 was upgraded from 4.54 to 4.43 after the draft and I have a better grip now on what to make of his other-worldly explosion. I undersold him in March when I wrote him up.

But the bottom line is that he's an absolutely top drawer prospect. There are only four players who qualify as Big, Fast and Explosive, and have a positive rushing metric. Two of the other three are Ladanian and Doug Martin. If he keeps his head on straight I think he's an uber stud in the making.

Own him in almost every league, but with his value skyrocketing it's gotten much tougher to get him.

 
I've got him in a couple leagues. If things had broken differently, I might have ended up with him in a couple others.

Love the workout numbers. My big issue is the lack of durability and production in college.

He wasn't a bad college player, but no 1000+ yard seasons despite playing four years. That's a bit disappointing.

The good news is that his poor production is what pushed him down in the NFL draft and made him available in the late 1st round of rookie drafts.

Don't think I'd trade him for Bell/Ball/Bernard/Lacy at this point. Those guys have much better immediate prospects, but Michael might be the best talent of the lot. He's certainly the best combine athlete of the group and the early buzz has been tremendous. Some people expect him to lead the NFL in preseason rushing yards, for whatever that's worth.

 
EBF said:
I've got him in a couple leagues. If things had broken differently, I might have ended up with him in a couple others.

Love the workout numbers. My big issue is the lack of durability and production in college.

He wasn't a bad college player, but no 1000+ yard seasons despite playing four years. That's a bit disappointing.

The good news is that his poor production is what pushed him down in the NFL draft and made him available in the late 1st round of rookie drafts.

Don't think I'd trade him for Bell/Ball/Bernard/Lacy at this point. Those guys have much better immediate prospects, but Michael might be the best talent of the lot. He's certainly the best combine athlete of the group and the early buzz has been tremendous. Some people expect him to lead the NFL in preseason rushing yards, for whatever that's worth.
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Fantastic points. Michael ran afoul of the coaches in his final year at Texas A&M, and slept in at the NFL combine, missing at least two team meetings. Character related issues are a bit of a concern with him, and I think one other concern was relating to his ability in pass protection (not that he doesn't have the physical talent to perform, just that his technique is very raw).

There are a few keys to success in the NFL (and to be valuable for fantasy football purposes):

1. Talent: No concerns here, Michael has incredible talent.

2. Opportunity: Short-term his path is blocked by the presence of Lynch, but the NFL landscape changes quickly as we all know. Michael could easily become the Seahawks top RB after Lynch moves on. (I don't think Turbin will play ahead of Michael)

3. Character: I know that this has become increasingly important with the issues surround Hernadez and other players this off-season, and while there are some questions here with Michael, I would place these question in the yellow flag category for the moment, as opposed to a red flag.

4. Attitude/Work ethic: I will acknowledge that this is one of the hardest areas to evaluate NFL players on, as it isn't always clear who has the drive and desire to win a job and then keep it. I do like what I am hearing so far, as it sounds like Michael is working hard to earn playing time with the Seahawks.

5. Health and avoiding injuries: Good luck predicting this, but as far as I am aware Michael didn't come into the NFL with any major injury/health concerns.

6. Fit within the offensive scheme and overall team talent. No concerns here, as the Seahawks are a team with a strong rushing foundation and they are talented on both the offensive side of the ball and especially on defense.

 
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Was hoping to get this guy late in the first of my ridiculously late rookie draft, but I'm not sure it's going to happen. Pretty sure I'll need to trade up to pull that one off...

 
I know Turbin is banged up at the moment, but if Lynch were to get hurt during this season, what is the best guess on touch splits between Turbin and Michael?

 
Kenny Powers said:
I know Turbin is banged up at the moment, but if Lynch were to get hurt during this season, what is the best guess on touch splits between Turbin and Michael?
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I would guess that Michael would get 1st and 2nd down as well as the goal-line carries, and Turbin would work 3rd downs.

 
Faust said:
EBF said:
I've got him in a couple leagues. If things had broken differently, I might have ended up with him in a couple others.

Love the workout numbers. My big issue is the lack of durability and production in college.

He wasn't a bad college player, but no 1000+ yard seasons despite playing four years. That's a bit disappointing.

The good news is that his poor production is what pushed him down in the NFL draft and made him available in the late 1st round of rookie drafts.

Don't think I'd trade him for Bell/Ball/Bernard/Lacy at this point. Those guys have much better immediate prospects, but Michael might be the best talent of the lot. He's certainly the best combine athlete of the group and the early buzz has been tremendous. Some people expect him to lead the NFL in preseason rushing yards, for whatever that's worth.
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Fantastic points. Michael ran afoul of the coaches in his final year at Texas A&M, and slept in at the NFL combine, missing at least two team meetings. Character related issues are a bit of a concern with him, and I think one other concern was relating to his ability in pass protection (not that he doesn't have the physical talent to perform, just that his technique is very raw).

There are a few keys to success in the NFL (and to be valuable for fantasy football purposes):

1. Talent: No concerns here, Michael has incredible talent.

2. Opportunity: Short-term his path is blocked by the presence of Lynch, but the NFL landscape changes quickly as we all know. Michael could easily become the Seahawks top RB after Lynch moves on. (I don't think Turbin will play ahead of Michael)

3. Character: I know that this has become increasingly important with the issues surround Hernadez and other players this off-season, and while there are some questions here with Michael, I would place these question in the yellow flag category for the moment, as opposed to a red flag.

4. Attitude/Work ethic: I will acknowledge that this is one of the hardest areas to evaluate NFL players on, as it isn't always clear who has the drive and desire to win a job and then keep it. I do like what I am hearing so far, as it sounds like Michael is working hard to earn playing time with the Seahawks.

5. Health and avoiding injuries: Good luck predicting this, but as far as I am aware Michael didn't come into the NFL with any major injury/health concerns.

6. Fit within the offensive scheme and overall team talent. No concerns here, as the Seahawks are a team with a strong rushing foundation and they are talented on both the offensive side of the ball and especially on defense.
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This is a very good post Faust. I agree with your take of Michaels issues being a yellow flag rather than a red one. That is a nice metaphor. Just wanted to expand on that there are concerns that deserve more investigation.

ESPN's Todd McShay says Texas A&M RB Christine Michael is the biggest risk at the RB position in the draft. "You look at him on tape, you see explosiveness, quickness... So what’s the problem? Baggage," McShay said. "Durability baggage, you go back to 2010 a season ending injury. The same in 2011 and then there a lot of character issues you have to wade through. He’s a big time risk and he’s probably going to go in the second round." Source: Sports Day
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Perhaps we should unpack this baggage a bit?

 
Beat writers saying he is mowing defenders down in training camp. Grabbing him late wherever possible.

 
BearsFan4Life said:
On pick 1.12 in our 14 team league ...hoping he drops to 2.2 but unfortunately the Lynch owner has 2.1 ..keeping fingers crossed
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Seems like a classic trade to move up position.

 
I have had him over Stacy since day one based on draft position alone. A very good front office selected him almost 100 spots before anyone decided to jump on Stacy. I can see throwing that out if it was a 15 or 20 spot difference, but 100 speaks volumes (98 actually but 100 sounds a lot better).

 
I think he has early first round talent, but was drafted 25-30 spots late for the injuries, and dinged about the same for the character stuff. IOW, if he had his head on straight and had 800 collegiate touches he'd have been a top-10 pick.

For fantasy drafts he was going 10-15 in most drafts before this round of hype, so I'd be surprised if you can get him with a pick outside the first 10 going forward.

 
wdcrob said:
I really need to get back around and update some of my pre-draft profiles. Michael's 40 was upgraded from 4.54 to 4.43 after the draft and I have a better grip now on what to make of his other-worldly explosion. I undersold him in March when I wrote him up.

But the bottom line is that he's an absolutely top drawer prospect. There are only four players who qualify as Big, Fast and Explosive, and have a positive rushing metric. Two of the other three are Ladanian and Doug Martin. If he keeps his head on straight I think he's an uber stud in the making.

Own him in almost every league, but with his value skyrocketing it's gotten much tougher to get him.
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How come you always find movements in combine times? What sites to you refer to?
 
NFL Draft Scout updates their 40s anywhere from a few days to a few weeks after the combine. Except for 2012 when they waited something like 11 months.

Michael was listed as 4.54, but was then updated to 4.43.

 
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Very intriguing guy. The problem is, you'll likely have to wait 3+ years to get anything of value from him. That's an eternity.

Unless you believe he will replace Lynch and his brand new giant conract, which is a hard sell. I own the guy in a few leagues, but that's the reason I wouldn't go crazy on him. Anything can happen at any time, but there is no "natural" path for reasonable production for a long time.

 
Sabertooth said:
Lots can happen in the NFL. Lynch could get traded or hurt, might go to jail.
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Recent events and all joking aside, long term jail is not likely. Sure, he could get suspended for some games, but you can't really bank on that. A trade is even less likely. Too much investment at this point.

Anybody can get hurt, but again, it's hard to rely on that as your sole "likely" path to production.

Lots of great looking prospects have minor roadblocks to starting production. But it's actually fairly rare for a really promising guy to fall into a situation where he is behind a stud in his prime who JUST signed a big long term deal. A lot of times a guy will be behind an aging stud, or a guy with only a year or two on a his current contract, or a mediocre starter etc. It's easy enough to roll with those scenarios and bide your time. But this scenario is brutal - I can't think of any other recent "big name" prospect who was in the same boat.

So his value suffers, rightfully so IMO.

 
Holy Schneikes said:
Very intriguing guy. The problem is, you'll likely have to wait 3+ years to get anything of value from him. That's an eternity.

Unless you believe he will replace Lynch and his brand new giant conract, which is a hard sell. I own the guy in a few leagues, but that's the reason I wouldn't go crazy on him. Anything can happen at any time, but there is no "natural" path for reasonable production for a long time.
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Most of the time really good players find a way onto the field. Sometimes you get Michael Turner or Jonathan Stewart but usually things work out one way or another.

 
A few more items from Rotoworld:

Texas A&M senior RB Christine Michael took 11 carries for 50 yards and two touchdowns Saturday against Mississippi State.
This is just the second game Michael has been awarded double digit carries this season. We really like the senior's talent, but he has been in the doghouse all season for unspecified reasons. That and his medical history may concern NFL evaluators.

Sat, Nov 3, 2012 04:09:00 PM
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Texas A&M senior RB Christine Michael will continue to come off the bench in a backup role.
Instead, junior Ben Malena will draw his second straight start. Michael started the season opener against Florida but was suspended for the game against SMU for violating team rules. He only touched the ball eight times against South Carolina State while Malena has rushed for 6.4 yards per carry in that time. Along with Malena being a smaller, faster back to fit the Aggies' air raid offense, there are likely ulterior circumstances that have not been disclosed keeping Michael from seeing more touches.

Source: Aggie Sports

Wed, Sep 26, 2012 07:17:00 PM
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Through three games, Texas A&M senior RB Christine Michael has only received 24 touches and amassed 80 yards in 2012.
Michael was suspended for the SMU game for a violation of team rules and it has been rumored that the senior missed the first half of this past weekend's game against South Carolina State for tweet during that game against the Mustangs. He is not a perfect fit for head coach Kevin Sumlin Air-Raid offense, and coupled with Michael's injury history, we could see a dip in production this season.

Mon, Sep 24, 2012 01:18:00 PM
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Texas A&M senior RB Christine Michael has been suspended for Saturday's game against SMU for a violation of team rules.
Senior safety Steven Campbell will also be suspended for Saturday's game. No specifics were disclosed in terms of which rules the two players broke, but it may have been in the last 24 hours. Freshman back Trey Williams had a great game last week and could see the majority of the carries.


Source: Brent Zwerneman on Twitter

Sat, Sep 15, 2012 03:21:00 PM
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Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin said at Monday's SEC media day that senior RB Christine Michael will be ready to play opening weekend.
Michael tore his left ACL in Novemeber after breaking his right tibia in 2010, so he certainly has a checkered injury history. Sumlin added that Michael is "way ahead" of his expected recovery time. Any positives are great to read about Michael, and we consider him the top senior talent at running back. A new offensive scheme is in place, but the Aggies would be foolish not to take advantage of Michael's talent in 2012.


Source: CollegeFootballTalk on NBC Sports
Tue, Jul 17, 2012 05:18:00 PM
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wdcrob said:
Holy Schneikes said:
Very intriguing guy. The problem is, you'll likely have to wait 3+ years to get anything of value from him. That's an eternity.

Unless you believe he will replace Lynch and his brand new giant conract, which is a hard sell. I own the guy in a few leagues, but that's the reason I wouldn't go crazy on him. Anything can happen at any time, but there is no "natural" path for reasonable production for a long time.
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Most of the time really good players find a way onto the field. Sometimes you get Michael Turner or Jonathan Stewart but usually things work out one way or another.
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I'm not sure there is a "most of the time" for this scenario. It just doesn't happen very often. I can't think of one example actually where a young promising player moved a true RB stud in his prime out of the way no matter HOW good they were. Not trying to be snarky here, but can you think of any?

Faulk was over 30 when Jackson showed up. Turner had to move teams before he got any play because of Tomlinson. How old (and healthy) will Stewart be when he gets a shot?

It's not like WR, where two guys can produce (White, Jones for ex).

I'm not saying the guy is worthless because of his situation. Just that it is (and should be) factored in. Would you take a 50/50 bet he will produce a 1200 yard rushing season (roughly what it takes to be a decent starter) over the next three years? I wouldn't. For me to want to invest HEAVILY in a guy, I want to be able to answer yes to that question.

 
Holy Schneikes said:
wdcrob said:
Holy Schneikes said:
Very intriguing guy. The problem is, you'll likely have to wait 3+ years to get anything of value from him. That's an eternity.

Unless you believe he will replace Lynch and his brand new giant conract, which is a hard sell. I own the guy in a few leagues, but that's the reason I wouldn't go crazy on him. Anything can happen at any time, but there is no "natural" path for reasonable production for a long time.
Click to expand...
Most of the time really good players find a way onto the field. Sometimes you get Michael Turner or Jonathan Stewart but usually things work out one way or another.
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I'm not sure there is a "most of the time" for this scenario. It just doesn't happen very often. I can't think of one example actually where a young promising player moved a true RB stud in his prime out of the way no matter HOW good they were. Not trying to be snarky here, but can you think of any?

Faulk was over 30 when Jackson showed up. Turner had to move teams before he got any play because of Tomlinson. How old (and healthy) will Stewart be when he gets a shot?

It's not like WR, where two guys can produce (White, Jones for ex).

I'm not saying the guy is worthless because of his situation. Just that it is (and should be) factored in. Would you take a 50/50 bet he will produce a 1200 yard rushing season (roughly what it takes to be a decent starter) over the next three years? I wouldn't. For me to want to invest HEAVILY in a guy, I want to be able to answer yes to that question.
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YES, 100% I would take that bet. (and Im a Seahawks fan)

Lynch will either be cut next year or the year after that. Personally I think this is going to be the last year you see Lynch in a Hawks uniform. I love Lynch, but looking at the roster, considering the age of Lynch, his salary, and who you have to pay next year and the year after that....all points to Lynch's days as being numbered.

http://www.hawkblogger.com/p/untitled-document.html

List of contracts.

 
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All I know is true talent has a way of getting on the field. Randall Cobb had three current or former Pro Bowlers ahead ahead of him when he was drafted. 2 Years later he is arguably the #1 wideout. Talent rises.

 
Sabertooth said:
All I know is true talent has a way of getting on the field. Randall Cobb had three current or former Pro Bowlers ahead ahead of him when he was drafted. 2 Years later he is arguably the #1 wideout. Talent rises.
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1) Nobody sane is arguing that Cobb is the #1 WR

2) He's a WR. The 3rd best WR on the team could be on the field for half the snaps. Not the same for RB.

3) It still took him 2+ years.

Michael obviously has character issues. His college coach obviously hated him. His character issues might not show yet, he's still new to the NFL. Some people are able to change once they hit the NFL, but I feel like most people are just able to mask it for a little while then they go back to being who they are.

 
I was using him as an example. Are you saying talent doesn't rise up depth charts?

I agree with you on your second point. A tiger does not generally change his stripes. They can mask it for a while and some grow through it. Some get issues diagnosed as well. Remember when Brandon Marshall was the biggest head case in the NFL just 3 seasons ago? Now nobody worries about him. Dez too.

I heard an interesting thing in Sig's On The Couch podcast and I forget who said it but it was basically that life happens and some guys have a change occur in them, be it maturity or having a kid or whatever and it finally clicks for them. You don't see too many T.O. type of guys that make it in the NFL for years and then go goofy. Usually those guys flare out pretty quickly.

 
Holy Schneikes said:
Sabertooth said:
Lots can happen in the NFL. Lynch could get traded or hurt, might go to jail.
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Recent events and all joking aside, long term jail is not likely. Sure, he could get suspended for some games, but you can't really bank on that. A trade is even less likely. Too much investment at this point.

Anybody can get hurt, but again, it's hard to rely on that as your sole "likely" path to production.

Lots of great looking prospects have minor roadblocks to starting production. But it's actually fairly rare for a really promising guy to fall into a situation where he is behind a stud in his prime who JUST signed a big long term deal. A lot of times a guy will be behind an aging stud, or a guy with only a year or two on a his current contract, or a mediocre starter etc. It's easy enough to roll with those scenarios and bide your time. But this scenario is brutal - I can't think of any other recent "big name" prospect who was in the same boat.

So his value suffers, rightfully so IMO.
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What is the structure of Lynch's contract? He's 27 years old, 1 year younger than MJD, and people act like MJD is such an old man that he should be out of the league. (yeah, I know that injuries are a big part of that.....but the point is that Lynch isn't young) Do we even expect Lynch to play out this contract, as written?

It's a tough situation, no doubt. Lynch has been playing extremely well in Seattle. So does Michael's value suffer, relative to if he had been drafted by the Jets, Colts, Steelers, etc? Sure.

On the flip side, as Lynch continues to age, the Hawks will likely give Michael an opportunity to tote the rock. If he looks great, even in limited time, it's hard to see him losing value. Think of Bernard Pierce - that might one of the worst situations a RB can land in, even worse than this. Yet Pierce has value, if anything increasing value, because he looked really good when he got touches.

 
steveski said:
Sabertooth said:
All I know is true talent has a way of getting on the field. Randall Cobb had three current or former Pro Bowlers ahead ahead of him when he was drafted. 2 Years later he is arguably the #1 wideout. Talent rises.
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1) Nobody sane is arguing that Cobb is the #1 WR

2) He's a WR. The 3rd best WR on the team could be on the field for half the snaps. Not the same for RB.

3) It still took him 2+ years.

Michael obviously has character issues. His college coach obviously hated him. His character issues might not show yet, he's still new to the NFL. Some people are able to change once they hit the NFL, but I feel like most people are just able to mask it for a little while then they go back to being who they are.
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Regarding #3, how did it take Randall Cobb 2+ years? He had 954 yds receiving and 8 TDs last year. To go along with another 132 yards rushing. Despite missing a game. So 1086 yards and 8 TDs in his 2nd year. Despite playing behind a bunch of Pro Bowlers, and having a supposedly great TE as a barrier to more targets. Yet he still managed a very good pro and fantasy season.

 
Holy Schneikes said:
Sabertooth said:
Lots can happen in the NFL. Lynch could get traded or hurt, might go to jail.
Click to expand...
Recent events and all joking aside, long term jail is not likely. Sure, he could get suspended for some games, but you can't really bank on that. A trade is even less likely. Too much investment at this point.

Anybody can get hurt, but again, it's hard to rely on that as your sole "likely" path to production.

Lots of great looking prospects have minor roadblocks to starting production. But it's actually fairly rare for a really promising guy to fall into a situation where he is behind a stud in his prime who JUST signed a big long term deal. A lot of times a guy will be behind an aging stud, or a guy with only a year or two on a his current contract, or a mediocre starter etc. It's easy enough to roll with those scenarios and bide your time. But this scenario is brutal - I can't think of any other recent "big name" prospect who was in the same boat.

So his value suffers, rightfully so IMO.
Click to expand...
How about his running style and age leading to a scenario where he is not as impactful as Michael in ,say, two years? I think most people are willing to hold prospects they feel good about for that long.

 
ImTheScientist said:
Holy Schneikes said:
wdcrob said:
Holy Schneikes said:
Very intriguing guy. The problem is, you'll likely have to wait 3+ years to get anything of value from him. That's an eternity.

Unless you believe he will replace Lynch and his brand new giant conract, which is a hard sell. I own the guy in a few leagues, but that's the reason I wouldn't go crazy on him. Anything can happen at any time, but there is no "natural" path for reasonable production for a long time.
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Most of the time really good players find a way onto the field. Sometimes you get Michael Turner or Jonathan Stewart but usually things work out one way or another.
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I'm not sure there is a "most of the time" for this scenario. It just doesn't happen very often. I can't think of one example actually where a young promising player moved a true RB stud in his prime out of the way no matter HOW good they were. Not trying to be snarky here, but can you think of any?

Faulk was over 30 when Jackson showed up. Turner had to move teams before he got any play because of Tomlinson. How old (and healthy) will Stewart be when he gets a shot?

It's not like WR, where two guys can produce (White, Jones for ex).

I'm not saying the guy is worthless because of his situation. Just that it is (and should be) factored in. Would you take a 50/50 bet he will produce a 1200 yard rushing season (roughly what it takes to be a decent starter) over the next three years? I wouldn't. For me to want to invest HEAVILY in a guy, I want to be able to answer yes to that question.
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YES, 100% I would take that bet. (and Im a Seahawks fan)

Lynch will either be cut next year or the year after that. Personally I think this is going to be the last year you see Lynch in a Hawks uniform. I love Lynch, but looking at the roster, considering the age of Lynch, his salary, and who you have to pay next year and the year after that....all points to Lynch's days as being numbered.

http://www.hawkblogger.com/p/untitled-document.html

List of contracts.
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Fair enough. Maybe I am not giving enough likelihood to Lynch being cut at the back end of his deal. I don't really see the big advantage to that, but it could happen.

Obviously, they are not cutting him this year, so that's likely to be a wash for Michael.

Next year he's due 5M, (would be 4M in cap savings). Do you cut a guy like Lynch in his prime for 4M in cap savings? Don't know, doesn't seem likely to me.

Cutting him in 2015 makes more sense - it would be 7.5M in savings at that point. So maybe. You could have a point there in that there is a reasonable chance for Michael to produce after two dead seasons as opposed to three. One if you really stretch it (which I don't buy, but who knows...).

 
Shutout said:
Holy Schneikes said:
Sabertooth said:
Lots can happen in the NFL. Lynch could get traded or hurt, might go to jail.
Click to expand...
Recent events and all joking aside, long term jail is not likely. Sure, he could get suspended for some games, but you can't really bank on that. A trade is even less likely. Too much investment at this point.

Anybody can get hurt, but again, it's hard to rely on that as your sole "likely" path to production.

Lots of great looking prospects have minor roadblocks to starting production. But it's actually fairly rare for a really promising guy to fall into a situation where he is behind a stud in his prime who JUST signed a big long term deal. A lot of times a guy will be behind an aging stud, or a guy with only a year or two on a his current contract, or a mediocre starter etc. It's easy enough to roll with those scenarios and bide your time. But this scenario is brutal - I can't think of any other recent "big name" prospect who was in the same boat.

So his value suffers, rightfully so IMO.
Click to expand...
How about his running style and age leading to a scenario where he is not as impactful as Michael in ,say, two years? I think most people are willing to hold prospects they feel good about for that long.
Click to expand...
Most guys who have shown what Lynch has shown are pretty impactful at age 28/29. That's part of my problem. The scenario would be a lot easier for me to digest if Lynch were going to be 31/32 in those years.

Of course, Lynch could get hurt, could get cut, could lose a step, etc and get Michael on the field as a starter earlier. But there is ALSO the possibility Seattle does really well, Lynch does really well, and the team secures him for another couple of years. Maybe Lynch restructures prior to 2015 and adds a couple of years instead of getting cut?

Again, broken record here, but I don't think Michael is OVER valued at all. He's definitely worth having and hanging on to. I'm just saying he has way more significant roadblocks than a lot of guys, and while I love his apparent talent, the team does not have a ton invested in him so there is less pressure for the team to even give him a legit opportunity if things don't break that way.

 
Michael being drafted to the Seahawks just screams the situation when the Bills drafted CJ Spiller, while having Lynch and Jackson on the roster. I would argue that Michael is close to being just as talented as Spiller was coming out. The Bills obviously moved on from Lynch, went with Jackson with the occasional Spiller sighting and now he is one of the most sought after dynasty assets to own. Now Spiller didn't have the character concerns that Michael has but the situation seems oddly similar, and we could be talking about Michael being a top5 dynasty asset in 2 years

 
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