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Alfred Morris, why is he rated so low (1 Viewer)

KellysHeroes

Footballguy
:confused:

I know were all afraid of Shanahan's shenanigans, but for this kid to not be anyone's top 10 RB rankings is ridiculous. If the Morris owner is selling him below RB top 10 I think you gotta act fast.

 
There's a lot of good RBs, and this year - unlike last - many of them arent coming off injuries. I can see him outside of the Top 10. I think he has a high floor but low ceiling. Shanny isnt helping him.

 
The perception is that RG3 and the read-option opens up the running lanes, and with RG3's future partially up in the air, it makes people pause.

They're partially right, but Morris is also a talented runner. The way he finishes runs is impressive. Very good football player. I could see the Skins bringing in a passing down specialist if he doesn't continue to progress in that area. But while healthy, I don't see anyone else touching 1st and 2nd down, short yardage, or goal line work, other than to spell him.

 
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Shanahingans works in his favor. Egomaniac Shanahan surely cherishes the perception that he discovered another 6th rd feature back. As with TD, because he's an average talent with a great work ethic, his value is tied more to the OL and health than anything else.

 
People are idiots, thats why. Even after Shanny gives him 315 plus touches, they still think he is holding him back. He doesnt catch passes? Yet still managed to rack up 1600 plus yards. He find the endzone?

So what is the problem? People like McFadden over this guy, and McFadden has never stayed healthy or sniffed the production Morris has.

Just plain hype of others I guess and he is slippin. Get him on the cheap if you can.

I couldnt move him for Murray or McFadden straight up according tot he other owners in my league.

 
I wouldn't even be slightly surprised if Wash drafted a RB in the first 3 rounds, signed a guy like Bradshaw or traded for a couple decent ones. Or did all of the above

 
I wouldn't even be slightly surprised if Wash drafted a RB in the first 3 rounds, signed a guy like Bradshaw or traded for a couple decent ones. Or did all of the above
I wouldn't be surprised by any of this but I would be surprised if Morris wasn't the starter throughout the season. He's a young stud.
 
I wouldn't even be slightly surprised if Wash drafted a RB in the first 3 rounds, signed a guy like Bradshaw or traded for a couple decent ones. Or did all of the above
I would bet we'll draft a passing-down back, quick and dangerous in the receiving game, in the 4th or later.I'd be very surprised if we used a pick in the first three rounds on a RB though. Veteran competition isn't out of the question, but a guy like Bradshaw is likely to be way out of our price range. We're right up against the cap and still haven't made any further cuts/restructures to make room for our draft picks even.
 
I am not very interested in him because I see him as a replaceable NFL player. If he goes down or starts to fumble, Royster will step in and have no problem running the ball. Once that happens, we are right back to the 2012 offseason situation. Being a good running back does not translate into being a good zone running back (dmac last year) and vice versa (alfred last year). If anything goes wrong with him this season, you can stick a fork in him. imo

 
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People are slow to accept "non-pedigree" studs. If Alfred Morris was a first round pick and put up the numbers he did last year he would be in everyone's top ten. Since Morris was a sixth round pick, however, people are slow to accept what Morris did last year as something he's capable of year-in and year-out. People were similarly slow to accept the late round pick Tom Brady as a legitimate talent at the beginning of his career.

 
People are slow to accept "non-pedigree" studs. If Alfred Morris was a first round pick and put up the numbers he did last year he would be in everyone's top ten. Since Morris was a sixth round pick, however, people are slow to accept what Morris did last year as something he's capable of year-in and year-out. People were similarly slow to accept the late round pick Tom Brady as a legitimate talent at the beginning of his career.
This is true. I think many people have an inaccurate perception of Shanny. If/when he finds a guy he can rely on, he'll ride him out. That hasn't been the case since he's been in Washington until now. I think it's clear that Morris is the guy barring injury of course. 1600 yards as a rookie isn't normal and Shanny understands that better than any of us.
 
People are slow to accept "non-pedigree" studs. If Alfred Morris was a first round pick and put up the numbers he did last year he would be in everyone's top ten. Since Morris was a sixth round pick, however, people are slow to accept what Morris did last year as something he's capable of year-in and year-out. People were similarly slow to accept the late round pick Tom Brady as a legitimate talent at the beginning of his career.
I wouldn't say that. People were all in on Foster after 3 games and the season opener. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Portis, Charles...They were all drafted late and value highly after their first successful season.Slaton was valued very highly after his rookie season. He was is a very similar situation, actually. He was drafted late. Was labeled a 3rd down back (vs alfred's goal line back label). Zone scheme. Slaton had 1619 total yards, 10 TDs and 50 rec. Alf had 1683, 13 and 7.

After Slaton's rookie season, he was being drafted in the 1.09-1.12 range in both dyno and redraft leagues.

Tom Brady had the same kind of initial season Sad Bradford did (Brady won the SB, Braford won ROY) and they were both valued about the same the following year.

 
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'Phenix said:
People are idiots, thats why. Even after Shanny gives him 315 plus touches, they still think he is holding him back. He doesnt catch passes? Yet still managed to rack up 1600 plus yards. He find the endzone?

So what is the problem? People like McFadden over this guy, and McFadden has never stayed healthy or sniffed the production Morris has.
I am no longer a McFadden apologist, I think his injuries have taken away his elite speed... HOWEVER...He had 1664 yards from scrimmage and 10 TDs in 13 games in 2010. That is most certainly "sniffing the production Morris has."

Just saying.

 
'ConnSKINS26 said:
'Shane Falco said:
I wouldn't even be slightly surprised if Wash drafted a RB in the first 3 rounds, signed a guy like Bradshaw or traded for a couple decent ones. Or did all of the above
I would bet we'll draft a passing-down back, quick and dangerous in the receiving game, in the 4th or later.I'd be very surprised if we used a pick in the first three rounds on a RB though. Veteran competition isn't out of the question, but a guy like Bradshaw is likely to be way out of our price range. We're right up against the cap and still haven't made any further cuts/restructures to make room for our draft picks even.
They already have Roy Helu Jr. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_HeluOn November 6, 2011, in a game against the 49ers, Helu set the Redskins' franchise record of most receptions in single game with 14 catches.

 
'ConnSKINS26 said:
Portis was a 2nd round pick and Charles a 3rd.
'n20 said:
... and Larry Johnson was a 1st rounder (27th overall).
LJ put up a total of 85 yards his rookie year. A lot of people saw him in the same way we see pead right now (not saying pead is good). Charles was sitting on ff waivers for his first few seasons. I remember picking up kolby smith over charles because i saw an opportunity at RB in KC.To add another: People bought into D Murray pretty quickly. He was on track to be a 1st round ff pick until he got hurt. Colston, Boldin, Tampa Mike Williams, marshall, finley, pierre thomasDespite thier late round pedegree, we bought into these guys pretty quickly
 
I'm a big Morris fan who thinks anyone who mentions Mike Shanahan is guilty of underrating him. Alfred Morris is a substantially better RB than Olandis Gary, Reuben Droughns, Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, Selvin Young, what-have-you. He's not as good as Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis, but he's probably as good as Mike Anderson, a tremendously underrated back who would have been a perennial fantasy stud if not for Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis (and an unfortunate injury in preseason 2004). Given Washington's lack of draft picks, I don't see Shanahan making a luxury pick of an RB in the second round, even if a Portis-like talent falls like it did in 2002, and there's no Terrell Davis already on the roster, so I think Morris has that job on lockdown, even if he fumbles or starts slowly next year.

With that said, I can easily see an argument for having Morris 10th at RB. I think Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, and C.J. Spiller are all better talents. Trent Richardson probably is, as well. Martin, Rice, and McCoy are workhorses like Morris, but they get involved in the passing game, too. Arian Foster is the biggest TD machine in the league today. I think you can be a big Morris believer and still prefer those 9 names in Dynasty or Redraft. I think once you start getting beyond that, it starts getting a little bit silly, though. There's no way I'd pass on Alfred Morris to grab Darren McFadden or Demarco Murray at this point.

 
'ConnSKINS26 said:
Portis was a 2nd round pick and Charles a 3rd.
'n20 said:
... and Larry Johnson was a 1st rounder (27th overall).
LJ put up a total of 85 yards his rookie year. A lot of people saw him in the same way we see pead right now (not saying pead is good). Charles was sitting on ff waivers for his first few seasons. I remember picking up kolby smith over charles because i saw an opportunity at RB in KC.To add another: People bought into D Murray pretty quickly. He was on track to be a 1st round ff pick until he got hurt. Colston, Boldin, Tampa Mike Williams, marshall, finley, pierre thomasDespite thier late round pedegree, we bought into these guys pretty quickly
Anquan Boldin was a 2nd rounder. Demarco Murray was a 3rd. Mike Williams was a 4th rounder, but he fell that far due to character concerns- he had a huge bandwagon and hype thread before he'd ever played a single meaningful snap. Brandon Marshall was a 4th as well, but he also fell due to character concerns and had a big following- he was nicknamed "EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE" after the excited shriek Sigmund Bloom uttered whenever his name was mentioned.I think Foster and Colston are interesting analogies. Very weak pedigree, very little hype before they started producing. Probably the closest match to Alfred Morris in terms of perception immediately before their big season. I think it's interesting to ask why everyone warmed so quickly to Foster and Colston and so slowly to Morris- is it all the Shanahan effect? Is it all a result of the eyeball test? Were Foster and Colston perceived to be in a better situation? Some combination of the three?
 
'ConnSKINS26 said:
Portis was a 2nd round pick and Charles a 3rd.
'n20 said:
... and Larry Johnson was a 1st rounder (27th overall).
LJ put up a total of 85 yards his rookie year. A lot of people saw him in the same way we see pead right now (not saying pead is good). Charles was sitting on ff waivers for his first few seasons. I remember picking up kolby smith over charles because i saw an opportunity at RB in KC.To add another: People bought into D Murray pretty quickly. He was on track to be a 1st round ff pick until he got hurt.

Colston, Boldin, Tampa Mike Williams, marshall, finley, pierre thomas

Despite thier late round pedegree, we bought into these guys pretty quickly
Charles came on strong at the end of his rookie year and was very good in his second year, I'm not sure where this is coming from.
 
'Phenix said:
People are idiots, thats why. Even after Shanny gives him 315 plus touches, they still think he is holding him back. He doesnt catch passes? Yet still managed to rack up 1600 plus yards. He find the endzone?

So what is the problem? People like McFadden over this guy, and McFadden has never stayed healthy or sniffed the production Morris has.

Just plain hype of others I guess and he is slippin. Get him on the cheap if you can.

I couldnt move him for Murray or McFadden straight up according tot he other owners in my league.
They do? Maybe in your leagues.
 
'ConnSKINS26 said:
Portis was a 2nd round pick and Charles a 3rd.
'n20 said:
... and Larry Johnson was a 1st rounder (27th overall).
LJ put up a total of 85 yards his rookie year. A lot of people saw him in the same way we see pead right now (not saying pead is good). Charles was sitting on ff waivers for his first few seasons. I remember picking up kolby smith over charles because i saw an opportunity at RB in KC.To add another: People bought into D Murray pretty quickly. He was on track to be a 1st round ff pick until he got hurt. Colston, Boldin, Tampa Mike Williams, marshall, finley, pierre thomasDespite thier late round pedegree, we bought into these guys pretty quickly
Wow... I thought you might come back and say something like, "Oh, well, maybe I don't know what I'm talking about".... but you followed it up with that.
 
'Phenix said:
People are idiots, thats why. Even after Shanny gives him 315 plus touches, they still think he is holding him back. He doesnt catch passes? Yet still managed to rack up 1600 plus yards. He find the endzone?

So what is the problem? People like McFadden over this guy, and McFadden has never stayed healthy or sniffed the production Morris has.

Just plain hype of others I guess and he is slippin. Get him on the cheap if you can.

I couldnt move him for Murray or McFadden straight up according tot he other owners in my league.
They do? Maybe in your leagues.
Yes, Tiberas on this board to be exact. Says he would not do McFadden for Morris straight. But then again, I'm the champ of the league, maybe people thinking like that is why.
 
'Jewell said:
People are slow to accept "non-pedigree" studs. If Alfred Morris was a first round pick and put up the numbers he did last year he would be in everyone's top ten. Since Morris was a sixth round pick, however, people are slow to accept what Morris did last year as something he's capable of year-in and year-out. People were similarly slow to accept the late round pick Tom Brady as a legitimate talent at the beginning of his career.
Many of us accepted Brady as a good NFL QB while not seeing his potential to be a stud FF QB. People can forget that the difference in talent between most 1st round picks and late picks is very small (the few elite talents being the exception - and they still need to have the work ethic and attention to detail many people lack). But I disagree with the premise that his draft pedigree is the issue for Morris. Just anecdotally, in our franchise draft, the backs taken in order were ADP, Richardson, Spiller, Martin, McCoy, Rice, Morris, Charles, Foster, Forte; so at least in that draft which is based on talent and future potential without much regard to situation, he's clearly a top 10 back.

 
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'Phenix said:
People are idiots, thats why. Even after Shanny gives him 315 plus touches, they still think he is holding him back. He doesnt catch passes? Yet still managed to rack up 1600 plus yards. He find the endzone?

So what is the problem? People like McFadden over this guy, and McFadden has never stayed healthy or sniffed the production Morris has.

Just plain hype of others I guess and he is slippin. Get him on the cheap if you can.

I couldnt move him for Murray or McFadden straight up according tot he other owners in my league.
They do? Maybe in your leagues.
Yes, Tiberas on this board to be exact. Says he would not do McFadden for Morris straight. But then again, I'm the champ of the league, maybe people thinking like that is why.
:lol: good for you. But yes, taking McFadden over Morris seems silly and based only in perceived talent.

 
'flc735 said:
I am not very interested in him because I see him as a replaceable NFL player. If he goes down or starts to fumble, Royster will step in and have no problem running the ball. Once that happens, we are right back to the 2012 offseason situation. Being a good running back does not translate into being a good zone running back (dmac last year) and vice versa (alfred last year). If anything goes wrong with him this season, you can stick a fork in him. imo
That would be an uneducated opinion, as the education shows that many 1600 yard back who tote the ball 300 times are not easily replaceable.In this post you brought up Royster, that Morris will fumble and he is not a good RB. LOL, do you believe your own crap?
 
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'flc735 said:
'Jewell said:
People are slow to accept "non-pedigree" studs. If Alfred Morris was a first round pick and put up the numbers he did last year he would be in everyone's top ten. Since Morris was a sixth round pick, however, people are slow to accept what Morris did last year as something he's capable of year-in and year-out. People were similarly slow to accept the late round pick Tom Brady as a legitimate talent at the beginning of his career.
I wouldn't say that. People were all in on Foster after 3 games and the season opener. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Portis, Charles...They were all drafted late and value highly after their first successful season.Slaton was valued very highly after his rookie season. He was is a very similar situation, actually. He was drafted late. Was labeled a 3rd down back (vs alfred's goal line back label). Zone scheme. Slaton had 1619 total yards, 10 TDs and 50 rec. Alf had 1683, 13 and 7.

After Slaton's rookie season, he was being drafted in the 1.09-1.12 range in both dyno and redraft leagues.

Tom Brady had the same kind of initial season Sad Bradford did (Brady won the SB, Braford won ROY) and they were both valued about the same the following year.
Sad indeed
 
'flc735 said:
I wouldn't say that. People were all in on Foster after 3 games and the season opener. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Portis, Charles...They were all drafted late and value highly after their first successful season.
Johnson was a first round pick, Portis was a second round pick and Charles was a third round pick and many called Foster a "system" back well into his success.
 
'Shane Falco said:
I wouldn't even be slightly surprised if Wash drafted a RB in the first 3 rounds, signed a guy like Bradshaw or traded for a couple decent ones. Or did all of the above
I would be shocked if the Redskins signed a free agent RB. They have no cap space.
 
'ConnSKINS26 said:
'Shane Falco said:
I wouldn't even be slightly surprised if Wash drafted a RB in the first 3 rounds, signed a guy like Bradshaw or traded for a couple decent ones. Or did all of the above
I would bet we'll draft a passing-down back, quick and dangerous in the receiving game, in the 4th or later.I'd be very surprised if we used a pick in the first three rounds on a RB though. Veteran competition isn't out of the question, but a guy like Bradshaw is likely to be way out of our price range. We're right up against the cap and still haven't made any further cuts/restructures to make room for our draft picks even.
They already have Roy Helu Jr. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_HeluOn November 6, 2011, in a game against the 49ers, Helu set the Redskins' franchise record of most receptions in single game with 14 catches.
The Redskins were definately looking at Helu as the 3rd down back early in training camp. But he got injured very early and was not healing up as the season progressed. Royster ended up being the 3rd down back. The Redskins did not throw the ball his way that often and did not have him run much either.
 
'ConnSKINS26 said:
'Shane Falco said:
I wouldn't even be slightly surprised if Wash drafted a RB in the first 3 rounds, signed a guy like Bradshaw or traded for a couple decent ones. Or did all of the above
I would bet we'll draft a passing-down back, quick and dangerous in the receiving game, in the 4th or later.I'd be very surprised if we used a pick in the first three rounds on a RB though. Veteran competition isn't out of the question, but a guy like Bradshaw is likely to be way out of our price range. We're right up against the cap and still haven't made any further cuts/restructures to make room for our draft picks even.
They already have Roy Helu Jr. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_HeluOn November 6, 2011, in a game against the 49ers, Helu set the Redskins' franchise record of most receptions in single game with 14 catches.
Helu still can't even run, coming off a major turf toe injury and Achilles problems. And he should be further ahead in his recovery, but he's not. It's worrisome.
 
'flc735 said:
'Jewell said:
People are slow to accept "non-pedigree" studs. If Alfred Morris was a first round pick and put up the numbers he did last year he would be in everyone's top ten. Since Morris was a sixth round pick, however, people are slow to accept what Morris did last year as something he's capable of year-in and year-out. People were similarly slow to accept the late round pick Tom Brady as a legitimate talent at the beginning of his career.
I wouldn't say that. People were all in on Foster after 3 games and the season opener. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Portis, Charles...They were all drafted late and value highly after their first successful season.Slaton was valued very highly after his rookie season. He was is a very similar situation, actually. He was drafted late. Was labeled a 3rd down back (vs alfred's goal line back label). Zone scheme. Slaton had 1619 total yards, 10 TDs and 50 rec. Alf had 1683, 13 and 7.

After Slaton's rookie season, he was being drafted in the 1.09-1.12 range in both dyno and redraft leagues.

Tom Brady had the same kind of initial season Sad Bradford did (Brady won the SB, Braford won ROY) and they were both valued about the same the following year.
Sad indeed
:rolleyes:
'flc735 said:
I wouldn't say that. People were all in on Foster after 3 games and the season opener. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Portis, Charles...They were all drafted late and value highly after their first successful season.
Johnson was a first round pick, Portis was a second round pick and Charles was a third round pick and many called Foster a "system" back well into his success.
Right, they thought he might just be a system back as they took him with the 1.1 or 1.2 startup selection...All those guys I mentioned were not expected to be top 10 ff players at their position coming into the league (our non "pedigrees")...and all of those players were valued and drafted as studs after only 1 season (or less) of production.

 
'flc735 said:
I am not very interested in him because I see him as a replaceable NFL player. If he goes down or starts to fumble, Royster will step in and have no problem running the ball. Once that happens, we are right back to the 2012 offseason situation. Being a good running back does not translate into being a good zone running back (dmac last year) and vice versa (alfred last year). If anything goes wrong with him this season, you can stick a fork in him. imo
That would be an uneducated opinion, as the education shows that many 1600 yard back who tote the ball 300 times are not easily replaceable.

In this post you brought up Royster, that Morris will fumble and he is not a good RB. LOL, do you believe your own crap?
:lmao: I am sorry you don't understand the zone running scheme or the English langue. I will go over an easy to read summary for you:

[*]I didn't say Alf will fumble.

[*]Royster did run the ball successfully when he had the chance.

[*]Alf is a good zone running back.

[*]Alf is just a body in any other running scheme. Likely a Tony Hunt fullback tweeter that never catches on anywhere.

It is a completely different ball game than a man blocking scheme. That is why Dmac, one of the most talented running backs in the league, completely flopped in the Raiders new zone scheme last season. The skills from a traditional running back just do not translate into a zone running back.

That's why the zone scheme has produced so many productive running backs that came from nowhere (and did nothing elsewhere). Off the top of my head: Orlandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Terrell Davis, Alf, Slaton and Foster.

Tell me what the difference is between Alf and Mike Anderson?

[*]Both were drafted in the 6th round

[*]Both played for Shanny

[*]Both racked up 1600 yards in thier rookie season

[*]Both were RB/FB tweeners

[*]Both put up double digit TDs

So, what is it with Alf that is going to give him the job security that Mike Anderson didn't have?

as the education shows that many 1600 yard back who tote the ball 300 times are not easily replaceable.Nope. Not in the zone scheme. Because it requires a specialize skill that most teams are not after. These 1500+ yard running backs kind of fall into the laps of zone running teams because no one else is after them.It is easy to say these players would have been just as good elsewhere but you know what? You can't say that. None of them have. Before you take me out of context, I do think Foster and Davis would have been good on other teams, but not nearly as good as they were/are in their zone schemes. The rest of them, including Alf would be and will be career journeymen in any other system.

I can only think of 1 "successful" example. Portis had back to back seasons averaging 108 yards rushing per game, 5.5 YPC and 15 TDs. The next 2 years in Washington, he averaged 91 yards rushing per game, 4 YPC and 9 TDs.

That's just my "uneducated" opinion.

 
'Jewell said:
People are slow to accept "non-pedigree" studs. If Alfred Morris was a first round pick and put up the numbers he did last year he would be in everyone's top ten. Since Morris was a sixth round pick, however, people are slow to accept what Morris did last year as something he's capable of year-in and year-out. People were similarly slow to accept the late round pick Tom Brady as a legitimate talent at the beginning of his career.
I don't think that's it at all. Look at Arian Foster. Universally accepted as one of the best RB in the game for fantasy purposes. And he was un drafted. BUT, put him under shanny and his stock would drop immediately.
 
'flc735 said:
I wouldn't say that. People were all in on Foster after 3 games and the season opener. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Portis, Charles...They were all drafted late and value highly after their first successful season.
Johnson was a first round pick, Portis was a second round pick and Charles was a third round pick and many called Foster a "system" back well into his success.
I think he was meaning drafted late in start ups during their rookie years prior to their explosions
 
'Jewell said:
People are slow to accept "non-pedigree" studs. If Alfred Morris was a first round pick and put up the numbers he did last year he would be in everyone's top ten. Since Morris was a sixth round pick, however, people are slow to accept what Morris did last year as something he's capable of year-in and year-out. People were similarly slow to accept the late round pick Tom Brady as a legitimate talent at the beginning of his career.
I don't think that's it at all. Look at Arian Foster. Universally accepted as one of the best RB in the game for fantasy purposes. And he was un drafted. BUT, put him under shanny and his stock would drop immediately.
why? its shanny's system (ran by Kub) that makes Foster so great.
 
'flc735 said:
I wouldn't say that. People were all in on Foster after 3 games and the season opener. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Portis, Charles...They were all drafted late and value highly after their first successful season.
Johnson was a first round pick, Portis was a second round pick and Charles was a third round pick and many called Foster a "system" back well into his success.
I think he was meaning drafted late in start ups during their rookie years prior to their explosions
You would think since he was so off the mark, but he was responding to someone talking about Morris' being underrated due to his pedigree.
 
In PPR leagues, I wouldn't have Morris in my top 10. In nonPPR leagues, Morris would be around 8-9. My concerns are:

1) he doesn't catch passes

2) his production hinges directly on RGIII and his ability to run. Hard to defend Morris when defenders need to worry about RGIII keeping the ball.

3) TDs are volatile. I prefer seeing another 13 TD season before it will become an expectation.

4) I don't consider him an elite talent......just a good talent.

He's still a solid option, but I would be a little worried about him as my RB1. He has a fairly high floor but lacks upside....he has zero chance IMO of cracking the top 5 RBs. Anyone drafting him to repeat a 1600/13 season may be in for a disappointment.

 
I put together a really long detailed post, but my machine crashed before I could post it.

The bottom line is he had 335 carries and 11 receptions last seasons.

335 carries in today's NFL is unsustainable. Even 300 for multiple seasons in a row rarely happens anymore (ADP has had 3 300 carry seasons in 6 years; Ray Rice has 1 in 5; Steven Jackson has 3 in 9). One has to think his carries will regress to the norm; maybe 275-300.

11 receptions is really low for a top-20 non PPR RB and almost unheard of for a PPR RB. Of the top-20 (non-PPR) fantasy RBs last year, the average catches per player was 33, with a low of 6 for Steven Ridley and 2nd low of 11 for Morris. Morris was 22 receptions below the average.

A couple of things have to come together for Morris to repeat his FF fantasy numbers from last year.

1. He has to truly be a rare workhorse and go for another 325+ carries, 1500+ rushing yards and 12+ TDs. If he does that, then he could not catch a single pass and finish top-10.

2. He will have to become a significantly larger factor in the passing game; especially for PPR leagues, if he regresses in his rushing numbers.

Think Michael Turner, he's finished top-10 RB 3 times in his career (average 6 finish). In those seasons, he's averaged 337 carries, 1470 rushing yards, 14 TDs, 12 receptions and 100 receiving yards.

I like the guy, but I have a feeling we might have seen his max. He could have a long and illustrious career putting up 1100-1200 rushing seasons for the next decade and never crack the top-10 again if he doesn't produce massive TD numbers or improve on that catch rate.

 
Tell me what the difference is between Alf and Mike Anderson?

[*]Both were drafted in the 6th round

[*]Both played for Shanny

[*]Both racked up 1600 yards in thier rookie season

[*]Both were RB/FB tweeners

[*]Both put up double digit TDs

So, what is it with Alf that is going to give him the job security that Mike Anderson didn't have?
Mike Anderson didn't have job security because he was on the same team as a 2000 yard rusher and former league and SB MVP who had recently led Denver to back-to-back superbowl championships. He also got hurt by the fact that a back his team had rated as a high first-round talent fell to the late second round, and the fact that when those two people were finally out of the backfield, Anderson was poised to retake the starting job but got hurt during preseason and lost for the year. Despite all of that, Anderson still came back and put up one of the top 5 fantasy seasons by a 32+ year old back in league history. The only guys to have a better fantasy season at that advanced age are Walter Peyton, John Riggins, Ricky Williams, and Ottis Anderson. That's some pretty talented company to be keeping.Alfred Morris doesn't share the backfield with a former league MVP. His team is strapped for cap space and draft picks, so they won't be making a "luxury" pick of an elite RB prospect, even if this draft offered one, even if one happened to fall. I expect him to perform as well as Mike Anderson would have performed had he never had to contend with Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis. Of course, "as well as Anderson would have performed", in this case, is more than enough to justify a top-10 ranking. Anderson would have been one of the best fantasy backs of the 2000s had Portis and Davis not stood in his way. I firmly believe this.

It is easy to say these players would have been just as good elsewhere but you know what? You can't say that. None of them have. Before you take me out of context, I do think Foster and Davis would have been good on other teams, but not nearly as good as they were/are in their zone schemes. The rest of them, including Alf would be and will be career journeymen in any other system.
You can say that Reuben Droughns, Olandis Gary, Selvin Young, Mike Bell, and Tatum Bell would have been career journeymen outside of the ZBS. I don't disagree at all, largely because those guys were career journeymen INSIDE of the ZBS. The only one of those guys to get 75+ carries in more than one season for Denver was Tatum Bell. He had two seasons of 75+ carries (none of 200+) before Denver showed him the door. And most of those guys were about as good outside of Denver as they were in Denver- Droughns had 1481 YFS in Denver, and then 1600 YFS the next year in Cleveland. Mike Bell had 835/8 as part of a committee in Denver, and 666/5 as part of a committee in New Orleans. There was nothing magical about Denver that turned mediocre players into studs, it just turned mediocre players into mediocre players getting a high usage volume in a great offense. That's the key- it's not the fact that Denver ran a different scheme that made the backs so effective, it's that Denver had the highest-paid offensive line in the entire NFL. The ZBS isn't some magical cure-all that turns nobodies into studs. The quality of the production was tied to the quality of the line, not the scheme. Witness what happened to Denver's rushing game after 2005 as key contributors Matt Lepsis, Tom Nalen, Ben Hamilton, and Cooper Carlisle got old, injured, or signed away with no great replacements on deck (Denver went from 2539/25 rushing, to 2152/12 rushing, to 1957/10 rushing, to 1862/15 rushing). Witness what happened to Houston's rushing game last year after losing key contributors on the line (a 300 yard drop in rushing yardage, and Arian Foster fell to a barely-respectable 4.1 ypc). That's the big problem with comparing Alfred Morris to Olandis Gary. Morris had much better production behind a much worse line (although Morris was aided immensely by the presence of Griffin). And even this is a bit of a diversion- even if we decide that 100% of Morris's value is tied to his scheme, isn't that irrelevant unless and until Morris is changing schemes?At the end of the day, as someone who watched a lot of Denver football, I don't think any Denver fans ever thought guys like Bell, Bell, Young, Droughns, or Gary were really that great. They produced solid counting stats because of a huge usage volume (Droughns and Gary were both getting well north of 20 carries a game) and a fantastic supporting cast. Despite this, their efficiency wasn't all that impressive- YPCs in the low 4s, average success rates. Everyone knew that these guys were journeymen, that they were just a shadow of the talent of a Davis or a Portis (who were both MUCH more efficient with their carries, and occupied a much larger portion of the defense's attention). Even the team knew it- it never entered a season intending to give one of these guys the ball. Not once. It always had its hand forced. Now, is Alfred Morris as good as Davis or Portis? No, not really- but he's a long sight better than Olandis Gary, Reuben Droughns, Mike Bell, or the rest of the placeholders Denver was forced to trot out due to injury. Washington chose Morris, rather than were forced into him by circumstance. As I mentioned earlier, I think Mike Anderson is a very good comparison, talent-wise... but while many would view that as an insult, I view that as a complement. Anderson gets kind of lumped in with the rest of the journeymen and placeholders to pass through Denver, but he really was different. Mike Shanahan moved him to FB because Anderson was talented enough that Shanahan WANTED to get him on the field more (rather than being forced to do so by injury). Mike Anderson actually won the starting job outright twice (although, as I mentioned, he got injured before 2004 and never got the chance). He wasn't a Davis or a Portis, but he was a very good back in his own right, and he would have been incredibly productive if circumstances hadn't conspired against him. And I think that holds true for Morris, too- he's a very good back who will continue to be very productive as long as circumstances don't conspire against him. And Washington's dearth of cap space and draft picks serve to ensure that circumstances won't.

 
'flc735 said:
'Jewell said:
People are slow to accept "non-pedigree" studs. If Alfred Morris was a first round pick and put up the numbers he did last year he would be in everyone's top ten. Since Morris was a sixth round pick, however, people are slow to accept what Morris did last year as something he's capable of year-in and year-out. People were similarly slow to accept the late round pick Tom Brady as a legitimate talent at the beginning of his career.
I wouldn't say that. People were all in on Foster after 3 games and the season opener. Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Portis, Charles...They were all drafted late and value highly after their first successful season.Slaton was valued very highly after his rookie season. He was is a very similar situation, actually. He was drafted late. Was labeled a 3rd down back (vs alfred's goal line back label). Zone scheme. Slaton had 1619 total yards, 10 TDs and 50 rec. Alf had 1683, 13 and 7.

After Slaton's rookie season, he was being drafted in the 1.09-1.12 range in both dyno and redraft leagues.

Tom Brady had the same kind of initial season Sad Bradford did (Brady won the SB, Braford won ROY) and they were both valued about the same the following year.
I don't think that is true at all. even AFTER Foster tore it up that first full-time season, there were tons of people out there doubting. I can recall a LOT of posts in these forums when Foster had the hamstring problems where people where saying "Nice knowking you Foster, there's your 15 minutes." People were still trying their best to put Tate in there above foster even after two great seasons. Maybe the Slaton comments answer the question. In general, people are leery to accept the next big thing at RB unless they come into the league with a lot of fanfare. When a guy comes in with a name like ADP or TRICH, people are ON BOARD. When they come in with a name and don't deliver (Ingram, Matthews), people try to stay on board. When they come out of nowhere and Do deliver, people always say "show it to me again to prove you're not a fluke".

 
Heres FBG top 15

1 RB Trent Richardson, CLE 5 4 1 1 2.8 2.5 2.5

1 RB Arian Foster, HOU 2 1 6 2 2.8 2.0 2.0

3 RB Adrian Peterson, MIN 1 2 5 4 3.0 3.0 3.0

4 RB Ray Rice, BAL 3 5 2 3 3.2 3.0 3.0

5 RB LeSean McCoy, PHI 8 3 3 6 5.0 4.5 4.5

6 RB Doug Martin, TB 6 7 4 5 5.5 5.5 5.5

7 RB Jamaal Charles, KC 4 8 8 8 7.0 8.0 8.0

8 RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA 7 6 9 7 7.2 7.0 7.0

9 RB C.J. Spiller, BUF 9 11 7 9 9.0 9.0 9.0

10 RB Matt Forte, CHI 12 9 10 10 10.2 10.0 10.0

11 RB DeMarco Murray, DAL 10 14 11 13 12.0 12.0 12.0

12 RB Alfred Morris, WAS 15 12 12 11 12.5 12.0 12.0

13 RB Chris Johnson, TEN 11 10 18 14 13.2 12.5 12.5

13 RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX 13 15 13 12 13.2 13.0 13.0

15 RB Darren McFadden, OAK 17 13 14 15 14.8 14.5 14.5

Right off the bat I would take Morris over Forte due to his injury history and TD vulture Bush being in Chi

Next I would surely take him Murray again due to his injury history and he did not look good at all last yr.

Lastly, it would be a tough call but I slight have Spiller higher due to CJ being a more talented player; but its close

 
Heres FBG top 151 RB Trent Richardson, CLE 5 4 1 1 2.8 2.5 2.51 RB Arian Foster, HOU 2 1 6 2 2.8 2.0 2.03 RB Adrian Peterson, MIN 1 2 5 4 3.0 3.0 3.04 RB Ray Rice, BAL 3 5 2 3 3.2 3.0 3.05 RB LeSean McCoy, PHI 8 3 3 6 5.0 4.5 4.56 RB Doug Martin, TB 6 7 4 5 5.5 5.5 5.57 RB Jamaal Charles, KC 4 8 8 8 7.0 8.0 8.08 RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA 7 6 9 7 7.2 7.0 7.09 RB C.J. Spiller, BUF 9 11 7 9 9.0 9.0 9.010 RB Matt Forte, CHI 12 9 10 10 10.2 10.0 10.011 RB DeMarco Murray, DAL 10 14 11 13 12.0 12.0 12.012 RB Alfred Morris, WAS 15 12 12 11 12.5 12.0 12.013 RB Chris Johnson, TEN 11 10 18 14 13.2 12.5 12.513 RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX 13 15 13 12 13.2 13.0 13.015 RB Darren McFadden, OAK 17 13 14 15 14.8 14.5 14.5Right off the bat I would take Morris over Forte due to his injury history and TD vulture Bush being in ChiNext I would surely take him Murray again due to his injury history and he did not look good at all last yr.Lastly, it would be a tough call but I slight have Spiller higher due to CJ being a more talented player; but its close
I hadn't looked at this yet, but wow, Richardson #1?! I agree that Morris should be in the top 10. I can't believe Murray is ahead of him. Murray is pretty much on my DND list. Spiller is hard not to like, but who is his QB going to be? Charles was hit or miss last year and his o-line is going to be in flux. How the hell is Lynch so low? In a redraft, I'd take him over Richardson. It wouldn't even be close b/w Lynch and McCoy. This is a bad list. I wouldn't put too much stock in it. Wait until the season gets closer to worry about the rankings.
 

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