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Alfred Morris, why is he rated so low


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  • 2 weeks later...

Rotoworld:

Alfred Morris managed 41 yards on 13 carries and secured 1-of-3 targets for 14 yards in the Redskins' Week 6 loss to the Cardinals.

The Cardinals' run defense held up despite the critical losses of RE Calais Campbell and OLB Matt Shaughnessy, forcing Washington to lean on its pass game to generate ball movement. Morris didn't help in that area, dropping a first-quarter target. Morris can be a frustrating fantasy player to own because he is essentially touchdown dependent. He'll be an RB2 in Week 7 against the Titans.

Oct 12 - 8:45 PM

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Early in the thread, I saw Morris as a sell-high candidate who was unlikely to replicate 355/1613/13 again. In 2013, he went 276/1275/7 and drifted down into that 10-15 range.

At this point, he's a buy-low guy to me. The Washington offense has not been consistent (and at times outright terrible) and Morris is still 6th in rushing attempts, 8th in rushing yards and 5th in rushing touchdowns for a 97/386/3 line. He's likely to hit 259/1029/8 this year if nothing gets better. But RGIII has been out, Jordan Reed has been out, Niles Paul got concussed and was out in one game and Cousins has been erratic. They're also in a new offense with a new WR in Desean Jackson that they're still figuring out.

I see no reason why Morris can't improve on his current RB2 line and even if he does not, he is probably available more cheaply as a RB2 than he has ever been.

I'd buy him at this point with last season as an expectation.

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Early in the thread, I saw Morris as a sell-high candidate who was unlikely to replicate 355/1613/13 again. In 2013, he went 276/1275/7 and drifted down into that 10-15 range.

At this point, he's a buy-low guy to me. The Washington offense has not been consistent (and at times outright terrible) and Morris is still 6th in rushing attempts, 8th in rushing yards and 5th in rushing touchdowns for a 97/386/3 line. He's likely to hit 259/1029/8 this year if nothing gets better. But RGIII has been out, Jordan Reed has been out, Niles Paul got concussed and was out in one game and Cousins has been erratic. They're also in a new offense with a new WR in Desean Jackson that they're still figuring out.

I see no reason why Morris can't improve on his current RB2 line and even if he does not, he is probably available more cheaply as a RB2 than he has ever been.

I'd buy him at this point with last season as an expectation.

Good points but I fear the flaw is all the Morris owners still see him as that 2012 guy.

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I agree his schedule looks better the rest of the way but my league has tight roster limits and I'm bailing. He's my RB4 and WRs like Colston, Torrey Smith, Beckham and Adams are all on the WW. I'm gonna go after one of those guys this week and move on. I'm done with a RB who's almost totally dependent upon touchdowns for his value.

I do think he has a good chance to score this week for what it's worth. But I'm still moving on.

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My concerns are dynasty related. Gruden's system (from his time as Cinci OC) utilizes two backs, and usually one of them is a passing-down maven. With Helu's contract up, I'd question whether or not Morris has much stiffer competition for carries next year.

He's on pace for about 260 carries this year - he'll likely top 1,000 yards and 8 TDs. That makes him an RB2, but where's it go from here? And does that make him a buy low or does it make him a sell if someone is chasing that borderline RB1 guy?

If Gruden drafts his Gio for this offense next season, the bottom could fall out here. Morris could easily become BJGE all over again, albeit more talented. Morris is also already 26, so I'm not sure there's enough time for a big late-career renaissance elsewhere. And the league is clearly changing to passing-down backs.

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2011 Cincinnati - Cedric Benson - 273/1067/6

2012 Cincinnati - BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 278/1094/6

2013 Cincinnati - Green-Ellis - 220/756/7

That probably gives you the idea on Morris going forward. He's clearly more talented than Benson and BJGE at the end of their careers, and so you would expect him to get around 275-300 touches this year. He's likely to do more with those touches than Benson and BJGE did and even if he does not, that keeps him on his current pace.

For dynasty, only when BJGE got older and more pedestrian and a dynamic talent in Geo Bernard arrived did his role diminish severely. Even then, he got 220 runs. At Morris' career ratios, that would give him a season of 220/1012/7, which is still at his current levels.

It's realistic to be worried about it, but if Gruden truly likes the two-back system, the bruiser back is still going to see a volume of touches. 220 is probably the floor, and it's BJGE's lack of skill that had him doing so little with it in 2013.

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If Morris isn't going to start catching passes (and there's no reason to think he'll get more than 1-2 most games), I think he needs to be on a team with a good defense so he can see second half/fourth-quarter volume as his team plays from the front. Unless you think the Washington defense is going to dramatically improve the rest of the season then I think you have to factor that into whatever projections you make for Morris going forward. If he's not getting volume then he becomes entirely dependent on his potential to score each week.

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If Morris isn't going to start catching passes (and there's no reason to think he'll get more than 1-2 most games), I think he needs to be on a team with a good defense so he can see second half/fourth-quarter volume as his team plays from the front. Unless you think the Washington defense is going to dramatically improve the rest of the season then I think you have to factor that into whatever projections you make for Morris going forward. If he's not getting volume then he becomes entirely dependent on his potential to score each week.

Just start him against easy-to-medium run defenses (most of his matchups) and avoid the tough ones and he's a top 15 RB. If you think the waiver flavor at WR is more valuable to your team, then... well that's your prerogative.

Edited by Pots
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If Morris isn't going to start catching passes (and there's no reason to think he'll get more than 1-2 most games), I think he needs to be on a team with a good defense so he can see second half/fourth-quarter volume as his team plays from the front. Unless you think the Washington defense is going to dramatically improve the rest of the season then I think you have to factor that into whatever projections you make for Morris going forward. If he's not getting volume then he becomes entirely dependent on his potential to score each week.

Just start him against easy-to-medium run defenses (most of his matchups) and avoid the tough ones and he's a top 15 RB. If you think the waiver flavor at WR is more valuable to your team, then... well that's your prerogative.

Not to turn this into an AC deal because it's not. Bottom line in my league's scoring Morris has had two good games out of six. Granted, the last two weeks were positively brutal matchups and the production reflected that. But even if you remove those two as outliers, you're looking at someone who to this point could only be started 50% of the time with quality results.

The reasons for this are simple - he doesn't catch passes, his team's defense is bad and if he's not scoring touchdowns he's near worthless in a fantasy lineup. With Washington having to play from behind a lot, that removes Morris from the game plan for large chunks of the game (how many carries did he have in the second half on Sunday? Three?) and that means he now becomes entirely dependent upon touchdowns to generate positive value. Given how volatile touchdowns can be, that sounds like an extremely risky proposition to me. But that's where Morris is at.

I like Morris as a talent. I just think he's in a bad situation and his inability to be a part of the passing game lowers his fantasy upside considerably. So I'm going to bolster my strong WR corps with either someone with a much higher floor whose situation I like a lot better (i.e. Colston), a boom/bust guy with a crazy good matchup this week (Smith) or a young ascending player in a position to potentially thrive the rest of the season (Beckham, Adams or maybe even Andre Holmes). That's my thought process at the moment. Again, my situation is unique because my league has very tight roster limits so you sometimes have to drop a decent player to get someone you might really want.

Edited by packersfan
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If Morris isn't going to start catching passes (and there's no reason to think he'll get more than 1-2 most games), I think he needs to be on a team with a good defense so he can see second half/fourth-quarter volume as his team plays from the front. Unless you think the Washington defense is going to dramatically improve the rest of the season then I think you have to factor that into whatever projections you make for Morris going forward. If he's not getting volume then he becomes entirely dependent on his potential to score each week.

Just start him against easy-to-medium run defenses (most of his matchups) and avoid the tough ones and he's a top 15 RB. If you think the waiver flavor at WR is more valuable to your team, then... well that's your prerogative.

Not to turn this into an AC deal because it's not. Bottom line in my league's scoring Morris has had two good games out of six. Granted, the last two weeks were positively brutal matchups and the production reflected that. But even if you remove those two as outliers, you're looking at someone who to this point could only be started 50% of the time with quality results.

The reasons for this are simple - he doesn't catch passes, his team's defense is bad and if he's not scoring touchdowns he's near worthless in a fantasy lineup. With Washington having to play from behind a lot, that removes Morris from the game plan for large chunks of the game (how many carries did he have in the second half on Sunday? Three?) and that means he now becomes entirely dependent upon touchdowns to generate positive value. Given how volatile touchdowns can be, that sounds like an extremely risky proposition to me. But that's where Morris is at.

I like Morris as a talent. I just think he's in a bad situation and his inability to be a part of the passing game lowers his fantasy upside considerably. So I'm going to bolster my strong WR corps with either someone with a much higher floor whose situation I like a lot better (i.e. Colston), a boom/bust guy with a crazy good matchup this week (Smith) or a young ascending player in a position to potentially thrive the rest of the season (Beckham, Adams or maybe even Andre Holmes). That's my thought process at the moment. Again, my situation is unique because my league has very tight roster limits so you sometimes have to drop a decent player to get someone you might really want.

Some people think that leagues where players get a full point for just catching a football is kind of silly. :shrug: That seems to be the bigger factor in your decision than Morris himself. He's had 2 solid games, 2 great games, and 2 predictably bad games in my league. In the one league I have him, I benched him the last 2 weeks and am confidently starting him this week.

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True, my discussion of Morris' value relates to PPR leagues. His lack of a role in the passing game isn't as much of a factor in standard leagues. In PPR he's RB28. That's flex territory which does equate to my analysis of him. Again, though, I do agree with the point made earlier that his schedule looks better going forward. So if you're still believing in him, I think you can use that as the foundation.

Edited by packersfan
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Rotoworld:

Speaking Monday, Redskins coach Jay Gruden said Alfred Morris "missed some cuts" in Sunday's win over the Titans, and isn't working "in concert" with the offensive line.

Morris is averaging just 3.82 yards per carry, and has yet to have a 100-yard day on the ground this season. He's averaging 63 weekly yards. Although the absence of Robert Griffin III (ankle) has been an obvious hindrance for the Redskins' ground attack, it doesn't fully explain Morris losing nearly an entire yard off his YPC. Morris is just a mid-range to low-end RB2, and could eventually start losing more touches to Roy Helu.
Related: Roy Helu
Oct 20 - 3:37 PM
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Rotoworld:

Alfred Morris rushed for 73 yards and one touchdown on 18 carries in Washington's Week 8 overtime win over Dallas.

Morris added one catch for 12 yards. Morris got off to a bad start, rushing for just 11 yards on five carries in the first half, and at one point riding the bench in favor of Silas Redd and Roy Helu on a second-quarter possession. But Morris immediately came out of the half and picked up chunk gains, ending a third-quarter drive with a five-yard touchdown run. Through eight games, Morris is on pace for a 266-1,026-8 rushing line. He's been more of a mid-to-low RB2 this season. Morris gets the Vikings next.

Oct 27 - 11:59 PM

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Rotoworld:

Alfred Morris - RB - Redskins

The Redskins hope the return of Robert Griffin III will spark their struggling running game.

The Redskins have been a bottom-half rushing attack this season after finishing in the top five each of the last two years. Alfred Morris has yet to reach the 100-yard mark in a game this season and is averaging 3.9 yards per carry after averaging 4.7 through his first two years in the league. With Griffin on the field, Washington hopes opposing defenses will not be able to commit as many defenders to the run, which will open up lanes for Morris. Morris is a solid RB2 this week.

Source: Washington Post

Nov 1 - 10:38 AM

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  • 4 weeks later...

Could the QB situation hurt Morris ROS? RG3 will be the backup this week (not deactivated) and I'm not convinced Gruden will stick with McCoy if he's performing poorly. This could be a QB carousel ROS.

Will Morris do better, worse, or the same?

Will the rushing game be better (run more to offset poor QB play) or worse (defenses focus on Morris because the the WAS QB doesn't scare them)?

Will the WAS secondary fold and put WAS in deep holes, forcing them to run less? (not QB related, I know)

I'm seeing red flags for Morris. What say ye?

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Could the QB situation hurt Morris ROS? RG3 will be the backup this week (not deactivated) and I'm not convinced Gruden will stick with McCoy if he's performing poorly. This could be a QB carousel ROS.

Will Morris do better, worse, or the same?

Will the rushing game be better (run more to offset poor QB play) or worse (defenses focus on Morris because the the WAS QB doesn't scare them)?

Will the WAS secondary fold and put WAS in deep holes, forcing them to run less? (not QB related, I know)

I'm seeing red flags for Morris. What say ye?

Honestly this week is a must win for me to get into the playoffs and I'm debating on benching him for L. Murray. Morris has struggled with any qb beside rg3 and I prefer Murrays upside compared to morris floor

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Some of us are already locked in, but need to prepare for weeks 15 thru 17. That's why I'm focusing on ROS and not immediate impact. My trade deadline is today, so I'm taking a deep look at every option, and considering trading FOR Morris.

Anyone with ROS outlook for Morris - especially considering the QB situation, secondary, and schedule - please chime in.

Edited by VandyMan
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  • 2 months later...

Rotoworld:

ESPN Redskins reporter John Keim says Alfred Morris fits well with new offensive line coach Bill Callahan.

Callahan isn't just any offensive line coach. He brings plenty of influence as a former NFL head coach and arguably the best line coach around today. We saw it last year as he took a talented group in Dallas and turned them into a dominating group. Morris, entering a contract year at age 26, should bounce back off last year's career-worst 4.05 YPC. Expect Callahan to install plenty of power runs that fit Alf's bruising style.
Source: ESPN.com
Feb 10 - 9:53 AM
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  • 1 month later...

Rotoworld:

Coach Jay Gruden raved about Alfred Morris last week.

Morris posted a career-worst 4.05 YPC while playing in Gruden's West Coast offense for the first time. But it was more than good enough for him to keep a stranglehold on the starting job heading into 2015. Now Morris gets a boost with the arrival of Bill Callahan, the game's premier offensive line coach and the one who spearheaded DeMarco Murray's massive season in Dallas last year. "Alfred will be happy," Gruden said. "There will be some different styles of runs for him, so for the most part, Alfred’s got great vision and did a great job protecting the football last year, so I think Alfred will be happy with some of the changes."

Source: ESPN.com
Mar 30 - 8:50 AM

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  • 2 weeks later...

Rotoworld:

ESPN Redskins reporter John Keim believes there's a "50-percent chance" the team extends Alfred Morris' contract.

The Skins are currently trying to extend OLB Ryan Kerrigan and LT Trent Williams. Although Morris has been durable and largely productive, he is a two-down grinder only, and was not drafted by Washington's current regime, which did invest a second-day pick into Florida RB Matt Jones. We'd go as far as to guess there's a less than 50 percent chance the Redskins lock up Morris.
Source: ESPN.com
May 14 - 9:35 AM
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Rotoworld:

Third-round RB Matt Jones said he knows Alfred Morris is "going to be the starter."

The question isn't if Alf will start -- it's how much of the work Jones will be able to siphon off. The Washington Post says the 6'2/231 Jones "certainly could see the field often as a rookie" and coach Jay Gruden has already left room for some kind of RBBC. Morris losing any early-down work will be devastating to his value because he is already a non-factor on passing downs.
Related: Matt Jones
May 18 - 9:18 AM
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Drafted Matt Jones on the '50% chance' the Redskins let Morris go. The Redskins used a top 100 pick (#95) on Matt Jones and he has 3 down ability.

Do I dare say he has a little Le'Veon Bell in him being 231 lbs. and a 6.84 3 cone time?

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Rotoworld:

Alfred Morris - RB - Redskins

Alfred Morris said he feels more refreshed heading into this season because he didn't lift weights as much as he had in previous offseasons.

Morris averaged a career-low 4.05 YPC last season. "The last couple offseasons I'd wear myself out," he said. "I decided what's best is to rest a lot more. I feel a lot better. I feel recovered." Morris will lose passing-down work to third-round RB Matt Jones, but should remain the bellcow in the Redskins' backfield on early downs like he's been in the past. There's still RB1/2 value here.

Source: ESPN.com

May 27 - 8:53 AM

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  • 4 weeks later...

Rotoworld:

Alfred Morris - RB - Redskins

New Redskins offensive line coach Bill Callahan has coached four top-9 rushing attacks in the last six years.

Three of those units were the Jets (2008, 2009, 2010) and one was last year's Cowboys. Those teams had more offensive line talent and more run-committed coaches than this year's Redskins, but Callahan's arrival can only mean good things for Alfred Morris. He should be able to reach 1,000 yards for the fourth straight season and will maintain goal-line work.

Source: NFL.com
Jun 23 - 10:22 AM

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Evan Silva ‏@evansilva 15m15 minutes ago

.@PFF charted #Redskins RB Alfred Morris with 5 drops on 26 targets last season. 54th of 57 qualified RBs in catch rate (65.4%).

That is a silly stat. 26 targets is way too small a sample size. Sort of like the great receiving game in the Pro-Bowl. 26 targets is less than 2 a game. Each reception is almost 4%. So 1 or 2 less drops on the entire season (I am sure RG3/Cousins/whoever threw a couple less than great passes) and he would pass/tie 6 more (including Charles and Vereen) or 20 more. So, 1 less drop he is at 41 of 57* and 2 less drops he is at 27 of 57. The cutoff for targets was 25, or 1 below what he had. Hard to compare bad passes/drops to guys who had up to 4-5 times as many targets.

*Note in looking at Football Outsiders, he appears to have 10 RBs at or below his catch rate out of 57, not just 3, including Foster and Sproles. Not sure where the 54 of 57 came from since the rate quoted/number of RBs is identical.

Edited by stbugs
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I can answer question of this thread then we can close it. He is rated so low because he doesn't catch passes and he was a one year wonder. PERIOD. CLOSE THREAD :ph34r: thread hijacked.

Your one year wonder has ranked in the Top 15 fantasy running backs in 0 ppr leagues for three straight years.

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I can answer question of this thread then we can close it. He is rated so low because he doesn't catch passes and he was a one year wonder. PERIOD. CLOSE THREAD :ph34r: thread hijacked.

Your one year wonder has ranked in the Top 15 fantasy running backs in 0 ppr leagues for three straight years.

Get out of here with your facts

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