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TE Rob Gronkowski, TB (6 Viewers)
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I swear, I knew someone would post something pointless like that.Concept Coop said:
Plus, if he has that back surgery, good luck lifting to stay as strong as usual and getting in football shape while you are recovering from that. Granted, he is such a physical freak that he could still be a huge red zone target while slowly getting into football shape, so touchdowns could still be had early, but it is still dicey.Jene Bramel said:
gianmarco
Footballguy
This is one of the stupidest trades I've ever seen. And that's saying a lot.
ETA--Even better, if you click on the link, it's a salary league and Gronk's salary is $2 through 2014.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Schtick, sure. But he's a physical freak; what would need to happen for him not to put up top 3 numbers, assuming he's on the field? In my opinion - more than some rust and lack of a training camp. Again, dude, he's The Gronk.I swear, I knew someone would post something pointless like that.Concept Coop said:
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I don't care if he is The Gronk. Five surgeries (assuming he has that back surgery) in a 7-8 month span is a major concern, no matter who you are. But feel free to overspend on him and think that just him being The Gronk will get you a championship.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
There is concern, but I don't think it's him being out of shape. I think the concern is future complications with the arm. My understanding is that his doctors are optimistic, so I am too.
I place him in a category with Peterson and Calvin, physically, in that they're in my lineup if they're on the field, and on my team if others discount them.
I don’t expect everyone to agree. But, dude…
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Well, sure, if he is on your team and he is playing, you start him, without question, but again, I am not saying he will be out of shape. Re-read what I said. I questioned whether or not he will be in game shape when the season starts. There is a big difference between being in shape and being in game shape. It's why holdouts who report right before the start of the season often struggle early in the season; they simply are not in game shape. And if Gronk is not in game shape AND is getting over several major injuries, odds are that he will struggle early in the season (if he recovers in time to play Week 1).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I agree with this for the most part. I simply think an out-of-game-shape Gronk is a top 15 re-draft player, still, in most formats. I could very well be wrong, and we'll see.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
For gronk (1.25 PPR TE / bonus 3 pts at 75 yards) and A Brown/D Wilson I'm asking for T-Rich / S Lee 2.11 / 3.03 / 2014 2ndConcept Coop said:
Shutout
Footballguy
This entire thread suddenly reminds me of about 2 1/2 years ago and Hakeem Nicks. Nicks was absolutely untouchable in dynasty unless you were willing to trade children and plasma. All these people were in threads talking it up and every time someone would post what they traded Nicks away from, the reactions were like "SHOCK! APPAUL! I Can't belive you traded Nicks for That! He's Young! There is Nothing like him!" and on and on.
But what we saw was that his cummulative injuries (and I think that is the key here) led to missed practice, missed time staying in shape, over compensation of one area and suddenly another is ailing and, before you knew it, despite people still hanging on and hanging on, he's been a relative disappointment for two years now.
And in the end we DID see that even the young and great Nicks was able to be replaced by other young and great WRS. The people that sold Nicks back then got more than you can dream of getting for him. I think the same is true for Gronk (and don't get me wrong, he is awesome). But when the bar that has been set is not just a great season, but an all-time perfect storm of productivity that rivals the ages, AND he has these cummulative injuries, AND his HOF QB can't possibly be around for the next ten years, I think you sell Gronk and RELATIVELY speaking, you will be better off when you look back on it.
But what we saw was that his cummulative injuries (and I think that is the key here) led to missed practice, missed time staying in shape, over compensation of one area and suddenly another is ailing and, before you knew it, despite people still hanging on and hanging on, he's been a relative disappointment for two years now.
And in the end we DID see that even the young and great Nicks was able to be replaced by other young and great WRS. The people that sold Nicks back then got more than you can dream of getting for him. I think the same is true for Gronk (and don't get me wrong, he is awesome). But when the bar that has been set is not just a great season, but an all-time perfect storm of productivity that rivals the ages, AND he has these cummulative injuries, AND his HOF QB can't possibly be around for the next ten years, I think you sell Gronk and RELATIVELY speaking, you will be better off when you look back on it.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You could be right. But I think it's worth pointing out that he was on pace to have another all-time great fantasy season before the last injury. He's the only TE in history to open their career with 3 double digit TD seasons. He's averaged a TD a game over the last 2 years, and just under that when we include his rookie year. The hype might have been there with Nicks, but his actual value never matched Gronk's.
The hobby is so low on Gronk right now that I don’t think you can sell him, in general. I haven’t seen a deal in which I like the non-Gronk side in quite some time. I personally wouldn’t pass up Gronk’s freaky potential for any reasonable offer, given his market. And – not a doctor – but I’ll take Gronk and his injury history over someone like Nicks or DMC whose injuries all seem to be related to the same portion of the body.
Banger
Footballguy
Nicks was never a rare talent, gronk is. His production on that offense for his position is like having 2 players on your roster. I think with the fact that NE just lost their best wr even bodes better for gronk.
2 years ago he went for 90-1327-17 (241 pts) and last year he was on pace for 80-1150-16 (211).
2 years ago he went for 90-1327-17 (241 pts) and last year he was on pace for 80-1150-16 (211).
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
It will considering league playoffs dont start week 1. Plenty of time to get all Gronked up.
Also, all these arm surgeries have not kept him from running. He wont be in "football shape", but he will be in good enough shape to be able to get into football shape a few weeks into the season
ghostguy123
Footballguy
most people said Adrian Peterson would have a very down year in 2012 also. Lot of people sold him very cheap.
My point is the elite of the elite athletes are different than other people. Nicks doesnt fit that category.
So what exactly is your point?
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Shutout
Footballguy
You can only lead a horse to water I suppose. It's real easy to sit back and make a sly remark and reference a great success story after the fact but those stories are far and few between. Terrell Davis was the greatest fantasy force of his time and people held him after his injuries. Why don't you reference that one? Doesn't fit your quip? The point is you either see it or you don't. If you are too scared to let a guy go because you don't want to risk being "that guy" that lost on a trade then just accept that and say so. But don't ignore the facts listed above. The situation has changed and will continue to change in New England. Gronk is great but it's silly to ignore all that surrounds him and keep assuming he is going to just give more seasons like the one two years ago
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
There is no such thing as minor back surgery. Anyone who has ever had back problems can testify to that.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I agree, but as I was saying, the arm has NOT. He is in good enough shape right now to weather that storm and get himself back into good football shape fairly early on in the season.
So as I said in my post, he will be in football shape a few weeks into the season.
Lot of people are stuck on his week 1 performance for some reason, like it is your leagues championship or something
Shutout
Footballguy
Nicks picked right up where he left off too. I think there was one game last year where he hung 40 on the bucs. It's easy to see it in a vacuum but the bigger question now is can gronkowski come back AND sustain? That's a legitimate question because the injuries are starting to accumulate and they are not small ones.It's somewhat like Jarvis best. We all know he is flat out electric when he plays. But can he play 16? Fr best, sadly, it's obviously no. For gronkowski, his supporters win this argument easily if he can but that's the rub: he hasn't been able to lately and when you start having back surgeries that wipe out your off season training, it at the very least should compel you to think on it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
For one, Gronk didnt have a major injury. He had a nagging annoying injury that lasted a long time and should not affect his future.
ALso, I never said he is going to do what he did two years ago (though he sure could). He doesn't ever need to approach that again to be an elite TE and lead a team to some championships as the TE-1 or TE-2 every year. And even in the years he does miss games his "points per game" are always going to be very high.
Of course Brady wont play forever, but I am not gonna sell low on Gronk because Brady might be done playing in 4-5 years, and because he MIGHT play with a crappy QB some day.
And as already stated, I am not referencing a success story. I was referencing an ELITE ATHLETIC SPECIMEN in Peterson. Gronk fits that mold. Those are the kinds of guys who tend to have a higher rate of success stories than the rest of the league.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Isn't Romo's surgery minor?? Kidding, different kind of surgery. I would call that more of a "surgery on his back" than "back surgery".
I would agree with the no such thing as minor back surgery for the most part, but NFL players are not the general public. The general public generally needs a much more significant back issue to be able to get surgery. We aren't sure if Gronk even needs back surgery yet, and won't know for a few weeks.
When we know what it is and what it's for, we can talk about it I guess. Until then, just pissing in the wind.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
That trade belongs in the "worst trade you have ever been offered" thread.
The fact that it was accepted almost sparks the need for it's own thread entirely called "how offseason news can ruin a dynasty team if you let it"
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Agreed. Gronk missed 5 games last year and was still the #2 TE (very nearly the #1!). If you got just 6 points a game out of your backup (about TE20 performance levels), then you got about as much VBD from your TE position (77 points) as you would have gotten from Demaryius Thomas (79 points). And that's with a zero in five weeks. Gronk could skip the entire first month of the season working himself into shape and still justify a 2nd round pick in redraft leagues.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
In leagues that have playoffs, absolutely.
Value goes down in total points leagues though. BUt there is still a lot of value even there cause like you said, the weeks he doesnt play a backup will get SOMETHING. That is of course assuming he doesnt play week 1, which I think he will.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Your examples aren't holding much water either. His situation is nothing like Jahvid Best's or Terrell Davis'. Surely not enough to suggest we are ingoring facts. You didn't really present facts for us to ignore if we wanted to.
Dez Bryant was injury prone until he wasn't, just like Stafford, Taylor, Gore, etc. Players get hurt in the NFL. Maybe Gronk more than others. But the payoff is much greater with Gronk than the very large majority of the hobby.
ETA: And what situation is changing around Gronk? He was on pace for 16 TDs last season, too.
He might not ever repeat 2011, just like Adrian Peterson is not likely to repeat 2012. They're still elite and as likely as anyone else to turn in future historic seasons.
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Offered Gronk / 3.11 for Bowe / l Miller / 2014 1st and got rejected w/ no counter. So people are scared
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
It wouldn't take much for Gronk to go from elite to merely very good. His massive value is based on those extra 6 PPG he had over the TE3 in 2011. If he starts averaging 13-14 PPG instead of 20 PPG then he's just another good TE.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Going to 13-14 PPG from 20 PPG is a 6-7 point drop. That's what would happen if he didnt' score a single TD. I guess if that were to happen he'd be just another TE. But he's the best redzone threat in the NFL on a team who scores as many TDs as anyone. I don't know why we would project that.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Heh, Gronk's been so good the last two years that you could apply "Gretzky Rules" (separate "Gronk's TD Catches" and "Gronk's non-TD Catches" into two players and have them drafted/started independently) and he'd still be a quality fantasy TE. Or, in this case, two quality fantasy TEs.
cstu
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
The point was, he is saying the guy was scared since he didnt accept it.........................I am just saying the poster was also scared considering he OFFERED it.I'd rather have the Bowe/Miller/1st side personally.
The deal itself, I prefer Gronk, but I can't call it bad or anything
Faust
MVP
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Shorter Rappaport: I don't have any new information, but I have this column to fill and I like to speculate.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I agree. The back surgery was reported to be very minor in nature and come with a shorter recovery time than the forearm. If he ends up needing it, that is.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
The point I was making was that owners out there are scaried to take the risk, the guy had placed Bowe on his trade block and is looking to get a little younger. Should of been an easy accept or atleast counter followed afterwards.ghostguy123 said:
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
The point I was making was that owners out there are scaried to take the risk, the guy had placed Bowe on his trade block and is looking to get a little younger. Should of been an easy accept or atleast counter followed afterwards.ghostguy123 said:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
And again, my point was, YOU seem to also be scared, but for some reason you are acting surprised about the other guy turning down your offer.
Clearly you prefer the other side of it otherwise you would not be offering it. Apparently he does, too. Why are you surprised he agrees with you??
I HOPE HOPE HOPE Gronk does in fact need back surgery, and even goes on the PUP list. The way people value players in the "now" has helped me get players/picks much cheaper when they don't provide an immediate return, and helps me greatly not too long after.
cstu
Footballguy
I don't view asking for Bowe, Miller and a 1st as being scared, more like being smart. Anything could happen between now and the start of the season. Maybe that isn't a good offer to you but to act like Gronk has 0% risk and is untradeable sounds like denial.
Just traded for Gronk. Now might be the only time you can land him at a semi discounted price. Traded Michael Crabtree (post injury), Jared Cook, Alshon Jeffery, and Rookie Pick 12 for Gronk. I am happy!
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