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[DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low?


EBF

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ebf - time to pull the plug

His value drops with each passing injury, but at the end of the day he's 27 years old with a dirt cheap dynasty price tag. If he stays healthy for even one of the next three seasons and is reasonably close to his peak talent level, he'll still provide a positive return on the investment required to get him right now. It would be one thing if he were still being valued like a top 20-25 dynasty RB, but that's no longer the case. Many of the guys in his ADP range are equally unlikely to do anything, but for different reasons. I'd rather have the hyper-talented guy with durability problems than the dime-a-dozen talent with a clean bill of health. It's more conceivable for Stewart to stay out of the training room for 3-4 months than it is for someone like Lance Dunbar or James White to suddenly become a viable NFL talent overnight.

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ebf - time to pull the plug

His value drops with each passing injury, but at the end of the day he's 27 years old with a dirt cheap dynasty price tag. If he stays healthy for even one of the next three seasons and is reasonably close to his peak talent level, he'll still provide a positive return on the investment required to get him right now. It would be one thing if he were still being valued like a top 20-25 dynasty RB, but that's no longer the case. Many of the guys in his ADP range are equally unlikely to do anything, but for different reasons. I'd rather have the hyper-talented guy with durability problems than the dime-a-dozen talent with a clean bill of health. It's more conceivable for Stewart to stay out of the training room for 3-4 months than it is for someone like Lance Dunbar or James White to suddenly become a viable NFL talent overnight.

You post a lot of good stuff but your stance on Stewart makes me question every other thing you write. Stewart just isn't built to withstand the NFL.

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ebf - time to pull the plug

His value drops with each passing injury, but at the end of the day he's 27 years old with a dirt cheap dynasty price tag. If he stays healthy for even one of the next three seasons and is reasonably close to his peak talent level, he'll still provide a positive return on the investment required to get him right now. It would be one thing if he were still being valued like a top 20-25 dynasty RB, but that's no longer the case. Many of the guys in his ADP range are equally unlikely to do anything, but for different reasons. I'd rather have the hyper-talented guy with durability problems than the dime-a-dozen talent with a clean bill of health. It's more conceivable for Stewart to stay out of the training room for 3-4 months than it is for someone like Lance Dunbar or James White to suddenly become a viable NFL talent overnight.

You post a lot of good stuff but your stance on Stewart makes me question every other thing you write. Stewart just isn't built to withstand the NFL.

I've steadily downgraded Stewart over the past two seasons as his durability issues have continued to limit his playing time, but that doesn't mean I need to write him off permanently. There are maybe 10-15 backs in the league with similar talent level, so if I can get him around RB55-RB60 then I'll happily take the gamble and hope that he can right the ship. I'm usually forgiving when it comes to players with top shelf talent, whether they're struggling with limited opportunity, a bad situation, injuries, or off-field stuff. I've gotten some good seasons from guys like Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones long after an impatient person would've thrown them back onto the scrap heap. Likewise, I'm happy to find a spot at the end of my bench for Stewart if the price is right. With a July ADP of 171st overall, I think it definitely is.

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ebf - time to pull the plug

His value drops with each passing injury, but at the end of the day he's 27 years old with a dirt cheap dynasty price tag. If he stays healthy for even one of the next three seasons and is reasonably close to his peak talent level, he'll still provide a positive return on the investment required to get him right now. It would be one thing if he were still being valued like a top 20-25 dynasty RB, but that's no longer the case. Many of the guys in his ADP range are equally unlikely to do anything, but for different reasons. I'd rather have the hyper-talented guy with durability problems than the dime-a-dozen talent with a clean bill of health. It's more conceivable for Stewart to stay out of the training room for 3-4 months than it is for someone like Lance Dunbar or James White to suddenly become a viable NFL talent overnight.

You post a lot of good stuff but your stance on Stewart makes me question every other thing you write. Stewart just isn't built to withstand the NFL.

:whoosh:

This guy is now on the level of LHUCKS, timscooch, etc with his dynasty league trolling and his "analysis".

Just one of the Shark Pool's worst posters overall.

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I have learned more from EBF than I ever have from HUCKS.

That is not a fair criticism.

We all make bad calls. EBF may be more stubborn about sticking to his guns on a call that he should be. At the same time I have seen him grow and learn from past mistakes as well.

It is pretty easy to criticize from the peanut gallery when no one cares or listens to what you have to say enough to put your nutz in a sling.

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Not sure why people are piling on except to pile on. I've been one of the biggest Stewart critics in this thread (and possibly the only one to question his actual talent on top of the injury/playing time concerns) but I think EBF is pretty spot on here.

Stewart's value is so low (he's on waivers in a lot of leagues) that he generally falls into a tier where I'd much prefer him to the muck that's available as an alternative. He's a longshot at this point but his cost/upside ratio has finally swung around the other way. If he never amounts to anything then you haven't lost anything more than a roster spot, but I think he's more likely to amount to something than many of the guys you'd be getting in that spot instead.

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ebf - time to pull the plug

His value drops with each passing injury, but at the end of the day he's 27 years old with a dirt cheap dynasty price tag. If he stays healthy for even one of the next three seasons and is reasonably close to his peak talent level, he'll still provide a positive return on the investment required to get him right now. It would be one thing if he were still being valued like a top 20-25 dynasty RB, but that's no longer the case. Many of the guys in his ADP range are equally unlikely to do anything, but for different reasons. I'd rather have the hyper-talented guy with durability problems than the dime-a-dozen talent with a clean bill of health. It's more conceivable for Stewart to stay out of the training room for 3-4 months than it is for someone like Lance Dunbar or James White to suddenly become a viable NFL talent overnight.

You post a lot of good stuff but your stance on Stewart makes me question every other thing you write. Stewart just isn't built to withstand the NFL.

:whoosh:

This guy is now on the level of LHUCKS, timscooch, etc with his dynasty league trolling and his "analysis".

Just one of the Shark Pool's worst posters overall.

I couldn't disagree with you more. I have learned more from EBG on here than anyone else with the possible exception of Adam Harstad.

Right now Stewart's value is probably a third round rookie pick. And he is pointing out that the odds of Stewart having some meaningful games for you are better than the odds of most rookies you would draft in the third round or most other guys valued around him. When he plays, Stewart is still quite capable of putting up big numbers.

Some people make decisions about a player and never adjust. They owned Stewart in the past, he got hurt, and they vow to never own him again. You need to adjust player value but it should be Gold or Fool's Gold--there are many degrees of value in between.

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There have been 3 years worth of "buy low" opportunities for Stewart. If you haven't taken advantage of them by now, you probably just don't like him. If you did, then you are probably going down with the ship regardless. He's now a 27 year old RB who is still in a backup role, already injured again and has amassed only 61 yds and 0.22 TDs per game the past 4 years. He more than likely won't do much again this year, given his backup status and being injured already. So you're basically looking at next year for any real return. Next year he will be 28 and essentially only have a window of, at best, 3 years to produce anything significant. I'd say a 3rd round rookie price tag is adequate. He will surely do better than some of those guys but also do worse than others.

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On XM radio this morning a Carolina beat reported (missed his name) suggested the team plans on D. Williams being the starting back, despite being 31, and would like to work Stewart and Tolbert heavily into the mix as compliments.

So basically the same story as always - a RBBC that saps all three backs of any real value outside of bye week fillers or until one of them gets injured. Stewart at least, has more longevity than the 31 year old Williams for dynasty purposes.

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Does he though? You'd think but Stewart cant get out of bed without getting hurt. Not sure he's long for the NFL. I am actually looking at the "other guys" they are bringing in.

I don't think the dynasty "Buy" for Carolina is necessarily on the roster at this point.

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The Carolina backfield has forever been the lost city of Elderado. I just can't take it anymore. Even If DWIL was out for the season, what would probably happen is Tolbert would steal each and every TD or JSTEW would simply play a game, mis a game, or something. There is simply no way to buy into the idea that there is value for this guy because he simply can't stay on the field.

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Not sure why people are piling on except to pile on. I've been one of the biggest Stewart critics in this thread (and possibly the only one to question his actual talent on top of the injury/playing time concerns) but I think EBF is pretty spot on here.

Stewart's value is so low (he's on waivers in a lot of leagues) that he generally falls into a tier where I'd much prefer him to the muck that's available as an alternative. He's a longshot at this point but his cost/upside ratio has finally swung around the other way. If he never amounts to anything then you haven't lost anything more than a roster spot, but I think he's more likely to amount to something than many of the guys you'd be getting in that spot instead.

Um, that's one of the most revered past times of the shark pool. Contrarian opinions are not welcome here and serve only as fodder for the masses to pile on.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) still hasn't practiced at Panthers camp.

Stewart pulled his hamstring in July. It was a very frustrating development after J-Stew reportedly showed "great burst" at spring practices. Stewart is still only 27 years old and will be a player to monitor once he gets back on the practice field, but right now isn't worth drafting in 12-team leagues.

Aug 7 - 12:20 PM

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) still hasn't practiced at Panthers camp.

Stewart pulled his hamstring in July. It was a very frustrating development after J-Stew reportedly showed "great burst" at spring practices. Stewart is still only 27 years old and will be a player to monitor once he gets back on the practice field, but right now isn't worth drafting in 12-team leagues.

Aug 7 - 12:20 PM

Is there any chance the Panthers bite the bullet and release this guy? Anyone know the cap ramifications and/or if it would save the team any real money, or is this season guaranteed?

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart - RB - Panthers

Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) has resumed running in a straight line.

Stewart reportedly "looked good" doing so on a side field during Thursday's practice. The Panthers will work out Stewart before Friday night's preseason opener, and evaluate him again on Sunday. He still has not practiced in camp.

Source: Charlotte Observer

Aug 8 - 2:51 PM

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Is there any chance the Panthers bite the bullet and release this guy? Anyone know the cap ramifications and/or if it would save the team any real money, or is this season guaranteed?

Not until after next season. They need him to retire. His contract is Alfonso Soriano bad.

Edited by BroadwayG
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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) still hasn't practiced at Panthers camp.

Stewart pulled his hamstring in July. It was a very frustrating development after J-Stew reportedly showed "great burst" at spring practices. Stewart is still only 27 years old and will be a player to monitor once he gets back on the practice field, but right now isn't worth drafting in 12-team leagues.

Aug 7 - 12:20 PM

Is there any chance the Panthers bite the bullet and release this guy? Anyone know the cap ramifications and/or if it would save the team any real money, or is this season guaranteed?

Over $17M in dead money.

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Regarding buy low, I got him in a startup at 19.11, which is mid 3rd rookie pick territory.

RB's who went the 19th round before him: Blount, Riddick, Storm Johnson, Lattimore, and Bradshaw.

I'm already assuming he's not going to produce anything, but if he does it will be more than all of those guys.

Edited by cstu
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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart - RB - Panthers

Jonathan Stewart rushed four times for 26 yards and two touchdowns in the Panthers' second preseason game Sunday night.

The second back through Carolina's tailback rotation, Stewart busted a weaving 15-yard gain on his first carry, showing superior burst and wiggle to starter DeAngelo Williams. Stewart got action with the first-team offense, operating as Carolina's primary back on their fourth and fifth drives after Williams handled each of the first three. Williams beat first contact on his initial touchdown run, plowing in from two yards out, and executed from three yards out on the second. Stewart, 27, currently has an ADP of undrafted.

Aug 17 - 9:52 PM

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I knew this thread would pop up. Should be interesting discussion.

This is the first time in literally 5 years where he actually looked like what reminds us of what he was in 2009.

The Rotoworld blurb says something about his ADP currently being "undrafted". That will change by the end of today, I imagine.

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Man, between the hate in here and the hate in the Richardson thread, I honestly think a dynasty owner could make a pretty decent squad betting on the league lepers for pennies on the dollar.

IMO there's plausible explanations for the results we've seen the last few years.

1) 2011 - Chud came to town with his pass happy ways -- it certainly paid off for Carolina and for Cam expecially, but it didn't really bode well for the RBs. Chud should have run the ball more... likely a lot more given the poor D Carolina put on the field, but they were often trailing. Stewart averaged 5.4 YPC for the season, his career best, but lacked the volume as Carolina split carries between Stew and DW nearly down the middle (142 for Stewart; 155 for DW; 126 for Cam) and they didn't exactly pound opponents, finishing 14th in rushing attempts despite their investments in the guys toting the rock. Hard to blame Stewart for a lack of volume.

2) 2012 - Chud does what he always does in his second year... go all mad scientist. And Hurney being Hurney didn't help either -- knowing they didn't run the ball a ton, he goes out and brings in Tolbert. Stewart actually severly injured his ankle in the first preseason game against Tampa, and wasn't right all year. After attempting to rehab, he injures the other ankle and eventually is forced to shut it down. Still, he played in 9 games, but his YPC fell to 3.6. The running game was a wreck with the team switching between zone read, zone blocking, and power blocking schemes. They also couldn't settle on a lead back, rotating DW, Stew, and Tolbert to the extent that none of them could find any sort of rhythm. Stew wasn't the only back to drop off in effectiveness; DW dropped to 4.3 YPC after averaging 5.4 in 2011, but all the running game struggles were masqued by Cam's dominance running from the QB position. For the first time in his career, Stew missed significant action -- 7 games. Prior to 2012 he had played in 62 of 64 career games.

3) 2013 - New OC, a recommitment to the running game, turning the reins over to Stew as a lead back, only Stew couldn't get healthy... lingering issues from both ankle injuries in 2012 forced him to have offseason surgery on both, with his recovery lingering long into the season. Williams, in turn, topped 200 carries for the first time in four years, Cam kept on keeping on, and Tolbert stepped into a complimentary role with 100+ carries of his own. Stewart finally returned to health, but with the team rolling, wasn't really given a ton of opportunity to take the reins. Only 48 attempts on the season for Stew.

Now we enter 2014... Stew is fully healthy for the first time in years. DW is 31 years old, and we've seen the cliff for RBs come completely out of nowhere... father time catches everyone eventually. Tolbert still lingers, as does Cam, but there's opportunity for Stew to get 200+ carries in this offense, and when healthy, he's an athletic freak.

The vitriol in here seems to suggest he's not worth the price of a roster spot, much less his acquisition cost. I find that hard to believe. There's just not a lot of borderline fliers available that have a clear path to playing time as well as the incredibly rare talent we've seen from Stew in the past. He wasn't fully health in 2012, and the recovery bled into 2013. Before that he had never averaged less than 4.3 per carry and twice had topped 5 YPC. He can also catch the ball with a 47 reception season on the ledger. Why not throw a roster spot and a few pennies at this guy? I simply don't get the hate... if he gets hurt, you move on. If he sucks, you move on. If he hits, like he's certainly capable of, you've likely won money assuming you can halfway manage the rest of your roster.

I appreciate your thoughts. My vitriol isn't with anything you said about him, just the facts of the situation.

1. DW was a HOF caliber RB and still not too far off that level. JS will not send him to the bench.

2. Tolbert is a short yardage boll dozier, a huge red zone threat, and can catch out of the back field.

3. Cam Kent is hanging out in the phone booth waiting to emerge for 8-60 any given week. Beyond that, Superman is 3rd in the league in rushing TDs over the last three years, only surpassed by ADP and Lynch.

4. G-man has drafted two other RBs, Barner and someone else this year.

5. The OL is in shambles.

Bottom line is that you have a Barbie Mini Bake Oven sized pie available and JS is just getting a shot at the crumbs left behind.

I disagree with a lot of what you're saying here. But that's the fun part about this game… even fans of the same team see situations completely differently.

1) Perhaps at one time… a 31-YO DW isn't the same guy. People said the same thing about Steven Jackson, and gushed when he went to ATL… that cliff is a #####. DW missed plays last year that a mid-20s DW makes. He's not the same guy anymore. Stew could absolutely become the lead back here.

2) Tolbert is still there… that's true.

3) So is Cam… can't argue that. Neither one of those things stopped DW last year from 200 carries… look no further than his month-by-month splits to see his effectiveness wasn't the same - 4.7 YPC in September; 3.6 in each of October and November; 4.7 again in December. I'm not sure honestly where December came from in terms of his production, but October and November were the red flags for those betting on him continuing to be the same guy he's been in the past.

4) Two 6th round picks are supposed to scare someone off of JStew? Both are likely intended to be core special team guys. Stewart missed most of last year and Barner still wasn't able to get on the field. Gaffney could surprise I suppose, but I highly doubt either guy pushes Stew and DW aside, barring injury.

5) The OL is a concern, agreed. But I'm more concerned about the pass blocking of the OL than the run blocking. Khalil, Silatolu, and Trai Turner are a mauling core of the line that specialize in run blocking. Bell actually had a positive grade in run blocking, as did Nate Chandler (currently they project as the starting OTs). And what's the best way to masque your deficiencies in pass blocking? Run, run, run, then run some screens, then run some more.

It's not as if the receiving corps is set to lead this team to the promised land. They need their running game...

Someone sure looked healthy for the first time since the end of 2011. I'll say it again - two major ankle injuries that they tried to fix with rehab instead of surgery... Fully healthy offseason allowing him to focus on football and training, not rehabbing.

Last night was EXACTLY what I wanted to see -- he still has it. Workload concerns are what they are, but the guy that showed up on the field last night will demand the ball.

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I've held him in a dynasty for 5 years. At this point, he's staying as last on my bench until he files retirement papers. I'm not dropping because I'm too stubborn, and I won't trade him off for pennies.

Right on bro. I've had him since startup and I don't see myself dropping him any time soon.

Now, if someone wanted to throw some rookie picks my way for him, well....

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If Tolbert or DeAngelo had a significant injury, then I think Stewart becomes a really good weekly play. Lets be honest though, if someone in the Panther backfield is getting hurt, it is probably Stewart.

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