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[DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low?


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I am looking for him to have one or two good games so I can jettison him. I bought into the hype and that's all he is. I would take a rookie second rounder for him right now. I have considered releasing him but kept him over Ryan Williams, which I already regret. He is the 24th man on my 24 man roster. Under guys like Vick Ballard (although I do have Bradshaw), Julian Edelman, and Shane Vereen.

I am strongly considering cutting him for Travis Kelce

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Long time Carolina fan here, and I've been a Stew believer for a long time as well. Been away from the dynasty game for a few months as our league requires the league site to be open for any activity (which I suppose, in essence, may eliminate it from being a 'dynasty' league in the truest sense of the word). Regardless, I keep an eye on the sport year round (as we all do), despite the league format I play.

First, before reading what I have to say, go read this from the DLF guys (several of whom post on this site) - http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2013/07/02/in-defense-of-jonathan-stewart/

Regardling Stewart, I've re-read this entire thread, and I'm quite frankly shocked that absolutely NO ONE mentioned the departure of Chudzinski as a factor in Stewart's prospects. First, Carolina ditched the incompetent GM. Then Cleveland hires Chud away, while Panthers fans danced in the streets utterly shocked. If we think back to 2011, the offense Chud brought to Carolina was beneficial for Stewart. In the previously referenced article, you'll he was ultra-productive with his touches - averaging 0.89 Points Per Touch in 2011. That was 13.6% higher than the aggregate average of the top 10 PPR RBs.

As any Carolina fan can tell you, or likely any Cleveland fans from Chud's tenure as their OC, the guy has a LOT of Mad Scientist to his offensive play calling. From 2011-2012, Carolina simply needed to improve the defense and maintain status quo on offense. They were already a top-5 unit, but Chud decided to get more "creative." He installs numerous option runs, and revamps half the offense from a top-5 unit. Worse, his play calling in-game was positively atrocious. I alluded to this fact in the Carolina Panthers 2012 Thread, but numerous times, Stewart would bust a play for 6 or 7 yards, and be pulled from the game, or DW would do the same. Neither was allowed to get into a rhythm. And on multiple occasions, Stew would receive the ball with a guy right in his face off a zone read hand-off that Newton read incorrectly. Suffice to say, the play-calling was so terrible that Rivera was being pushed to fire Chud. Without going further down the rabbit hole, it never made it back, and they never gave one back a fair shot at a rhythm until Stew was injured late in the year (coincidentally when DWill took off).

What's also not been mentioned from 2012 were the injuries sustained across the O-line, from pro-bowl Center Ryan Khalil, pro-bowl LT Jordan Gross, and a revolving door at RG with sub-par Byron Bell playing RT. Suffice to say that the line situation has improved simply with a healthy Khalil and Gross, and should Kigbula represent any sort of upgrade at RG, perhaps substantially improved.

Stew battled injuries all last year, and true he's been nicked up his whole career. But prior to 2012 he had always played and played well through those nicks. The fact that he didn't play for such a substantial period in 2012 suggests to me he was actually injured far worse than the team led on - likely a high ankle sprain in the preseason that caused him to miss week 1, and caused future ineffectiveness, followed by the late-season ankle injury that ended his year. Surgey on both ankles should (in theory) rectify the problems, and while I'm not encouraged by the slow recovery, I'll assume they're being supremely cautious with him knowing there's no reason to push him into OTAs or early camp.

Given the hate spewed in this thread, I would be buying ALL DAY LONG. I already own the guy, so perhaps I fit the label of the rose-colored glasses wearing believer, but I simply don't see anyone else at a comparable price offering near the upside. Chud is gone, replaced by a conservative Mike Shula who said they needed to return to the things that worked well for the offense in 2011. Assuming a return to health for Stewart, he's likely a safe flex play on 12 touches per game, a number I feel is easily achieved. If Williams fully hits the wall, and Stew gets 15+ touches per game, watch out.

IMO, the guy is being crucified for an injury-plagued, poorly coached, decimated o-line season in 2012. Look at the rest of his career on efficiency metrics and performance on a per touch basis. Don't let the outlier determine your course of action.

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Long time Carolina fan here, and I've been a Stew believer for a long time as well. Been away from the dynasty game for a few months as our league requires the league site to be open for any activity (which I suppose, in essence, may eliminate it from being a 'dynasty' league in the truest sense of the word). Regardless, I keep an eye on the sport year round (as we all do), despite the league format I play.

First, before reading what I have to say, go read this from the DLF guys (several of whom post on this site) - http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2013/07/02/in-defense-of-jonathan-stewart/

Regardling Stewart, I've re-read this entire thread, and I'm quite frankly shocked that absolutely NO ONE mentioned the departure of Chudzinski as a factor in Stewart's prospects. First, Carolina ditched the incompetent GM. Then Cleveland hires Chud away, while Panthers fans danced in the streets utterly shocked. If we think back to 2011, the offense Chud brought to Carolina was beneficial for Stewart. In the previously referenced article, you'll he was ultra-productive with his touches - averaging 0.89 Points Per Touch in 2011. That was 13.6% higher than the aggregate average of the top 10 PPR RBs.

As any Carolina fan can tell you, or likely any Cleveland fans from Chud's tenure as their OC, the guy has a LOT of Mad Scientist to his offensive play calling. From 2011-2012, Carolina simply needed to improve the defense and maintain status quo on offense. They were already a top-5 unit, but Chud decided to get more "creative." He installs numerous option runs, and revamps half the offense from a top-5 unit. Worse, his play calling in-game was positively atrocious. I alluded to this fact in the Carolina Panthers 2012 Thread, but numerous times, Stewart would bust a play for 6 or 7 yards, and be pulled from the game, or DW would do the same. Neither was allowed to get into a rhythm. And on multiple occasions, Stew would receive the ball with a guy right in his face off a zone read hand-off that Newton read incorrectly. Suffice to say, the play-calling was so terrible that Rivera was being pushed to fire Chud. Without going further down the rabbit hole, it never made it back, and they never gave one back a fair shot at a rhythm until Stew was injured late in the year (coincidentally when DWill took off).

What's also not been mentioned from 2012 were the injuries sustained across the O-line, from pro-bowl Center Ryan Khalil, pro-bowl LT Jordan Gross, and a revolving door at RG with sub-par Byron Bell playing RT. Suffice to say that the line situation has improved simply with a healthy Khalil and Gross, and should Kigbula represent any sort of upgrade at RG, perhaps substantially improved.

Stew battled injuries all last year, and true he's been nicked up his whole career. But prior to 2012 he had always played and played well through those nicks. The fact that he didn't play for such a substantial period in 2012 suggests to me he was actually injured far worse than the team led on - likely a high ankle sprain in the preseason that caused him to miss week 1, and caused future ineffectiveness, followed by the late-season ankle injury that ended his year. Surgey on both ankles should (in theory) rectify the problems, and while I'm not encouraged by the slow recovery, I'll assume they're being supremely cautious with him knowing there's no reason to push him into OTAs or early camp.

Given the hate spewed in this thread, I would be buying ALL DAY LONG. I already own the guy, so perhaps I fit the label of the rose-colored glasses wearing believer, but I simply don't see anyone else at a comparable price offering near the upside. Chud is gone, replaced by a conservative Mike Shula who said they needed to return to the things that worked well for the offense in 2011. Assuming a return to health for Stewart, he's likely a safe flex play on 12 touches per game, a number I feel is easily achieved. If Williams fully hits the wall, and Stew gets 15+ touches per game, watch out.

IMO, the guy is being crucified for an injury-plagued, poorly coached, decimated o-line season in 2012. Look at the rest of his career on efficiency metrics and performance on a per touch basis. Don't let the outlier determine your course of action.

Bolded the important parts.

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JFS171 you added some very nice points and I appreciate your post. I too think Stewart is a good buy low right now. Supposedly Cam is going to do more pocket passing and less running, including the goal line packages, and that should help Stewart's numbers. Tolbert is honestly my biggest concern. I hope the new OC uses him exclusively as a blocker instead of a goal line vulture. I know I'd be okay if Stewart OR D-Will got the goal line carries, it helps a lot of us in FF. But when Tolbert gets them...ughh.

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Per touch numbers mean little without volume. He just isn't going to be able to get 250+ touches.

Only if you are assuming injury.

Stewart has never had 250 touches. He's only had 200 once in five years, and last year is the only time he's missed significant time due to injury. Stewart < 250 touches looks like a pretty safe bet to me, unless Williams and / or Tolbert get hurt.

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True, but DeAngleo is now rapidly approaching 30. And the Panthers gave Stewart a big contract. I think its pretty clear they see him as the lead back now. Might have taken a while to get there, but he is expected to be the starter when healthy.

There is absolutely nothing at all "clear" about the backfield in Carolina. The "rapidly approaching 30" DeAngelo was actually given slightly more carries / game than Stewart over the course of last season (10.8 to 10.3), and was significantly more effective with those carries (4.3 vs 3.6 YPC). Cam and Tolbert both had more TDs than either. Tolbert led the RBs in catches. The situation is about as clear as mud.

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart was forced to withdraw from a recent golf tournament due to ankle issues.

It does not sound like Stewart had suffered a setback because he was spotted working out at Bank of America Stadium last Wednesday and coach Ron Rivera said he was pleased with what he saw. Still, the inability to even play golf suggests that Stewart won't be ready when the Panthers open training camp on July 25.
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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart was forced to withdraw from a recent golf tournament due to ankle issues.

It does not sound like Stewart had suffered a setback because he was spotted working out at Bank of America Stadium last Wednesday and coach Ron Rivera said he was pleased with what he saw. Still, the inability to even play golf suggests that Stewart won't be ready when the Panthers open training camp on July 25.

Those who finally cleansed themselves of this guy feel so much better. I know I do.

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Quite frankly, I couldn't care less if he skips a golf tournament. The quotes from Rivera are that he's progressing quite nicely and they're excited about having him back at full health. That he's been diligent with his rehab and working with the trainers.

I don't get points for appearances in celebrity golf tournaments.

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Quite frankly, I couldn't care less if he skips a golf tournament. The quotes from Rivera are that he's progressing quite nicely and they're excited about having him back at full health. That he's been diligent with his rehab and working with the trainers.

I don't get points for appearances in celebrity golf tournaments.

Golf is the #1 sport of old men, sitting on benches was a close 2nd. If Jstew had to not golf, it's not a good sign. Of course Ron Rivera is going to say positive things, what else is he going to say? "Yeah, Jonathan Stewart has bad ankles/Achilles. So bad in fact, that my father lasted longer than him on the golf course the other day."

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart was forced to withdraw from a recent golf tournament due to ankle issues.

It does not sound like Stewart had suffered a setback because he was spotted working out at Bank of America Stadium last Wednesday and coach Ron Rivera said he was pleased with what he saw. Still, the inability to even play golf suggests that Stewart won't be ready when the Panthers open training camp on July 25.

What a hilariously drawn conclusion. Dude didn't feel like playing golf. If I had an excuse to not play golf, I'd play that card, too. Maybe he spent his time doing something fun like riding go-karts. Whatever the case, nothing from that fact indicates he won't be ready for training camp. Wowzers.

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart was forced to withdraw from a recent golf tournament due to ankle issues.

It does not sound like Stewart had suffered a setback because he was spotted working out at Bank of America Stadium last Wednesday and coach Ron Rivera said he was pleased with what he saw. Still, the inability to even play golf suggests that Stewart won't be ready when the Panthers open training camp on July 25.

What a hilariously drawn conclusion. Dude didn't feel like playing golf. If I had an excuse to not play golf, I'd play that card, too. Maybe he spent his time doing something fun like riding go-karts. Whatever the case, nothing from that fact indicates he won't be ready for training camp. Wowzers.

Jonathan Stewart was forced to withdraw from a recent golf tournament due to ankle issues.

If the bolded was in fact true - and I don't know if it is or isn't - wouldn't their conclusion be logical since training camp is less thantwo weeks away?

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Long time Carolina fan here, and I've been a Stew believer for a long time as well. Been away from the dynasty game for a few months as our league requires the league site to be open for any activity (which I suppose, in essence, may eliminate it from being a 'dynasty' league in the truest sense of the word). Regardless, I keep an eye on the sport year round (as we all do), despite the league format I play.

First, before reading what I have to say, go read this from the DLF guys (several of whom post on this site) - http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2013/07/02/in-defense-of-jonathan-stewart/

Regardling Stewart, I've re-read this entire thread, and I'm quite frankly shocked that absolutely NO ONE mentioned the departure of Chudzinski as a factor in Stewart's prospects. First, Carolina ditched the incompetent GM. Then Cleveland hires Chud away, while Panthers fans danced in the streets utterly shocked. If we think back to 2011, the offense Chud brought to Carolina was beneficial for Stewart. In the previously referenced article, you'll he was ultra-productive with his touches - averaging 0.89 Points Per Touch in 2011. That was 13.6% higher than the aggregate average of the top 10 PPR RBs.

As any Carolina fan can tell you, or likely any Cleveland fans from Chud's tenure as their OC, the guy has a LOT of Mad Scientist to his offensive play calling. From 2011-2012, Carolina simply needed to improve the defense and maintain status quo on offense. They were already a top-5 unit, but Chud decided to get more "creative." He installs numerous option runs, and revamps half the offense from a top-5 unit. Worse, his play calling in-game was positively atrocious. I alluded to this fact in the Carolina Panthers 2012 Thread, but numerous times, Stewart would bust a play for 6 or 7 yards, and be pulled from the game, or DW would do the same. Neither was allowed to get into a rhythm. And on multiple occasions, Stew would receive the ball with a guy right in his face off a zone read hand-off that Newton read incorrectly. Suffice to say, the play-calling was so terrible that Rivera was being pushed to fire Chud. Without going further down the rabbit hole, it never made it back, and they never gave one back a fair shot at a rhythm until Stew was injured late in the year (coincidentally when DWill took off).

What's also not been mentioned from 2012 were the injuries sustained across the O-line, from pro-bowl Center Ryan Khalil, pro-bowl LT Jordan Gross, and a revolving door at RG with sub-par Byron Bell playing RT. Suffice to say that the line situation has improved simply with a healthy Khalil and Gross, and should Kigbula represent any sort of upgrade at RG, perhaps substantially improved.

Stew battled injuries all last year, and true he's been nicked up his whole career. But prior to 2012 he had always played and played well through those nicks. The fact that he didn't play for such a substantial period in 2012 suggests to me he was actually injured far worse than the team led on - likely a high ankle sprain in the preseason that caused him to miss week 1, and caused future ineffectiveness, followed by the late-season ankle injury that ended his year. Surgey on both ankles should (in theory) rectify the problems, and while I'm not encouraged by the slow recovery, I'll assume they're being supremely cautious with him knowing there's no reason to push him into OTAs or early camp.

Given the hate spewed in this thread, I would be buying ALL DAY LONG. I already own the guy, so perhaps I fit the label of the rose-colored glasses wearing believer, but I simply don't see anyone else at a comparable price offering near the upside. Chud is gone, replaced by a conservative Mike Shula who said they needed to return to the things that worked well for the offense in 2011. Assuming a return to health for Stewart, he's likely a safe flex play on 12 touches per game, a number I feel is easily achieved. If Williams fully hits the wall, and Stew gets 15+ touches per game, watch out.

IMO, the guy is being crucified for an injury-plagued, poorly coached, decimated o-line season in 2012. Look at the rest of his career on efficiency metrics and performance on a per touch basis. Don't let the outlier determine your course of action.

This is a great post. The linked article was a good inclusion. That last line is so very true. See also Mathews, Ryan. Fantasy footballers are fickle. A few years ago Beanie Wells was going to be king of the world. Then two seasons later Ryan Williams was going to kick Beanie to the curb. Two years later Ryan Williams is dead to fantasy owners. But specific to Stewart, everyone has now been jilted by Stewart at least once - drafted him as an RB2 expecting RB1 numbers - so an injury riddled season with bad coaching is all it takes to drive a stake in him. Thus, he's great value.

I bought him cheap last year and am really looking forward to this season. Will definitely be looking to snag him in redrafts. His ADP is 84th overall (RB34). Very low cost gamble.

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart was forced to withdraw from a recent golf tournament due to ankle issues.

It does not sound like Stewart had suffered a setback because he was spotted working out at Bank of America Stadium last Wednesday and coach Ron Rivera said he was pleased with what he saw. Still, the inability to even play golf suggests that Stewart won't be ready when the Panthers open training camp on July 25.

What a hilariously drawn conclusion. Dude didn't feel like playing golf. If I had an excuse to not play golf, I'd play that card, too. Maybe he spent his time doing something fun like riding go-karts. Whatever the case, nothing from that fact indicates he won't be ready for training camp. Wowzers.

Jonathan Stewart was forced to withdraw from a recent golf tournament due to ankle issues.

If the bolded was in fact true - and I don't know if it is or isn't - wouldn't their conclusion be logical since training camp is less thantwo weeks away?

I've been "forced" to withdraw from baby/wedding showers due to unforeseen circumstances. Don't take the wording too literally.

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart was forced to withdraw from a recent golf tournament due to ankle issues.

It does not sound like Stewart had suffered a setback because he was spotted working out at Bank of America Stadium last Wednesday and coach Ron Rivera said he was pleased with what he saw. Still, the inability to even play golf suggests that Stewart won't be ready when the Panthers open training camp on July 25.

What a hilariously drawn conclusion. Dude didn't feel like playing golf. If I had an excuse to not play golf, I'd play that card, too. Maybe he spent his time doing something fun like riding go-karts. Whatever the case, nothing from that fact indicates he won't be ready for training camp. Wowzers.

Jonathan Stewart was forced to withdraw from a recent golf tournament due to ankle issues.

If the bolded was in fact true - and I don't know if it is or isn't - wouldn't their conclusion be logical since training camp is less thantwo weeks away?

I've been "forced" to withdraw from baby/wedding showers due to unforeseen circumstances. Don't take the wording too literally.

You own Jstew, obviously you have a horse in the race. But if that was the blurb and I was reading it, I wouldn't assume he changed his mind and went go carting or other activity you listed. I would assume it's due to the ankle...because it says "ankle issues"

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart was forced to withdraw from a recent golf tournament due to ankle issues.

It does not sound like Stewart had suffered a setback because he was spotted working out at Bank of America Stadium last Wednesday and coach Ron Rivera said he was pleased with what he saw. Still, the inability to even play golf suggests that Stewart won't be ready when the Panthers open training camp on July 25.

What a hilariously drawn conclusion. Dude didn't feel like playing golf. If I had an excuse to not play golf, I'd play that card, too. Maybe he spent his time doing something fun like riding go-karts. Whatever the case, nothing from that fact indicates he won't be ready for training camp. Wowzers.

Jonathan Stewart was forced to withdraw from a recent golf tournament due to ankle issues.

If the bolded was in fact true - and I don't know if it is or isn't - wouldn't their conclusion be logical since training camp is less thantwo weeks away?

I've been "forced" to withdraw from baby/wedding showers due to unforeseen circumstances. Don't take the wording too literally.

It's been widely reported that his recovery from offseason ankle surgery has been going slowly. It seems odd that he would just decide to withdraw from a golf tournament that he planned on playing in all along. Do you really thinks he agreed to play in a golf tournament at one point and now equates doing so to going to a baby shower?

Maybe you're not taking it literally enough.

In the end it may not matter since missing a week or two of camp probably doesn't do him any harm.

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One problem with Stewart is that he always seems to be so hit and miss. Even going back to his 2011 campaign you couldn't really use him.

In my PPR he went

6.0

18.5

11.5

12.5

4.3

16.5

11.8

7.9

BYE

8.5

16.9

11.2

17.9

9.6

7.1

16.9

16.6

That's tough sledding trying to pick out when to use him. Looking at that risk and knowing how hard it is to play a guy in a slump. I can see starting him in the bolded games only. By his very nature of being so hit and miss you miss a lot more than you should. I won't start a healthy player coming off a week where he scored less than 10 PPR points if I have other options. His Week 16 and 17 seasons are useless because nobody is going to put a player coming off consecutive <10 games into the lineup unless that absolutely have to.

You start him in Week 1 and he flops. How confident are you for week 2? Then he goes off and you kick yourself for not starting him only to insert him back in week 3 where he puts in a yeoman 11.5 followed by a decent 12.5 in week 4. Trending up right? Nope, you play him week 5 and he loses your week for you with a 4.5 outing. Stung from that you miss out on the 16.5 point game in Week 6. Rinse and repeat. Hopefully benched him coming off that 17.9 point week 13 romp because if you started him in Week 14 for your playoff wildcard game, you probably lost because of it.

He had decent aggregate stats in 2011, but it didn't do much good if you were simply trying to guess when he'd show up.

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Per touch numbers mean little without volume. He just isn't going to be able to get 250+ touches.

Only if you are assuming injury.

Stewart has never had 250 touches. He's only had 200 once in five years, and last year is the only time he's missed significant time due to injury. Stewart < 250 touches looks like a pretty safe bet to me, unless Williams and / or Tolbert get hurt.

I know the anti-Stewart crowd has somehow dismissed this, but Stewart landed in a situation with an excellent RB in DeAngelo Williams. That was the main reason for several years that Stewart didn't see starter touches. 2011 was a RBBC with Williams. 2012 seemed like it was Stewart's time to assume to lead back role... and he promptly had a preseason high ankle sprain and another high ankle sprain on the other ankle later in the year, both of which required surgery.

250 touches is not a huge number to obtain. 14 carries/g and 2 receptions/g > 250 total touches. I just don't see that as a target worthy of saying definitively "he just isn't going to get", unless you are assuming injury.

I get the injury risk. I get the RBBC risk. I get the loss of GL carries risk. Nobody is advocating taking Stewart as your RB1 or even RB2.

I don't get the certainty so many posters have that Stewart CANNOT succeed. I don't get anti-Stewart circle jerk.

Its all about risk tolerance and probabilities of output. There are a wide range of possible outcomes with Jonathon Stewart, it isn't nearly as easy as the circle jerkers indicate to peg down the probabilities of his output.

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True, but DeAngleo is now rapidly approaching 30. And the Panthers gave Stewart a big contract. I think its pretty clear they see him as the lead back now. Might have taken a while to get there, but he is expected to be the starter when healthy.

There is absolutely nothing at all "clear" about the backfield in Carolina. The "rapidly approaching 30" DeAngelo was actually given slightly more carries / game than Stewart over the course of last season (10.8 to 10.3), and was significantly more effective with those carries (4.3 vs 3.6 YPC). Cam and Tolbert both had more TDs than either. Tolbert led the RBs in catches. The situation is about as clear as mud.

Do you believe that a year that Stewart was healthy in ZERO games and had two ankle injuries that were bad enough to require surgery is a reliable indicator of future RB usage? Do you believe that Stewart's injuries might have had something to do with his going from 5.4 ypc in 2011 to 3.6 ypc in 2012?

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One problem with Stewart is that he always seems to be so hit and miss. Even going back to his 2011 campaign you couldn't really use him.

In my PPR he went

6.0

18.5

11.5

12.5

4.3

16.5

11.8

7.9

BYE

8.5

16.9

11.2

17.9

9.6

7.1

16.9

16.6

That's tough sledding trying to pick out when to use him. Looking at that risk and knowing how hard it is to play a guy in a slump. I can see starting him in the bolded games only. By his very nature of being so hit and miss you miss a lot more than you should. I won't start a healthy player coming off a week where he scored less than 10 PPR points if I have other options. His Week 16 and 17 seasons are useless because nobody is going to put a player coming off consecutive <10 games into the lineup unless that absolutely have to.

You start him in Week 1 and he flops. How confident are you for week 2? Then he goes off and you kick yourself for not starting him only to insert him back in week 3 where he puts in a yeoman 11.5 followed by a decent 12.5 in week 4. Trending up right? Nope, you play him week 5 and he loses your week for you with a 4.5 outing. Stung from that you miss out on the 16.5 point game in Week 6. Rinse and repeat. Hopefully benched him coming off that 17.9 point week 13 romp because if you started him in Week 14 for your playoff wildcard game, you probably lost because of it.

He had decent aggregate stats in 2011, but it didn't do much good if you were simply trying to guess when he'd show up.

Great posting! That is why it is never as simple as saying, "Look at his season total." Unless you are seen as a surefire every week starter, it doesn't do FF owners a lot of good if you suck one week in their starting lineup, and then produce the following week on their bench. That is why I don't put a ton of stock in Stewart's one very good season, because how many owners were actually starting him every week, much less late in the season, when he did produce, but when you cannot risk going with someone as inconsistent as Stewart?

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Romo isn't playing golf either....supposedly dedicated himself to getting ready for football. Maybe that's what JStew is doing....dedicating himself to his rehab and recovery instead of goofing off. There are a gazillion reasons for not playing in a tournament. Maybe his sponsors or agents had him signed up for it all along and he was just looking for an excuse.

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To clarify: I'm a huge believer in Stewart's talent. But Williams is equally talented and doesn't appear to be going anywhere since the restructure. And Tolbert gets goal-line and 3rd down work. And Cam will likely lead the team in rushing TDs for the forseeable future.

Almost anywhere else Stewart is a fantasy RB1 IMO. But in Carolina I see no reason to expect anything other than a muddled 4 way mess.

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One problem with Stewart is that he always seems to be so hit and miss. Even going back to his 2011 campaign you couldn't really use him.

In my PPR he went

6.0

18.5

11.5

12.5

4.3

16.5

11.8

7.9

BYE

8.5

16.9

11.2

17.9

9.6

7.1

16.9

16.6

That's tough sledding trying to pick out when to use him. Looking at that risk and knowing how hard it is to play a guy in a slump. I can see starting him in the bolded games only. By his very nature of being so hit and miss you miss a lot more than you should. I won't start a healthy player coming off a week where he scored less than 10 PPR points if I have other options. His Week 16 and 17 seasons are useless because nobody is going to put a player coming off consecutive <10 games into the lineup unless that absolutely have to.

You start him in Week 1 and he flops. How confident are you for week 2? Then he goes off and you kick yourself for not starting him only to insert him back in week 3 where he puts in a yeoman 11.5 followed by a decent 12.5 in week 4. Trending up right? Nope, you play him week 5 and he loses your week for you with a 4.5 outing. Stung from that you miss out on the 16.5 point game in Week 6. Rinse and repeat. Hopefully benched him coming off that 17.9 point week 13 romp because if you started him in Week 14 for your playoff wildcard game, you probably lost because of it.

He had decent aggregate stats in 2011, but it didn't do much good if you were simply trying to guess when he'd show up.

Great posting! That is why it is never as simple as saying, "Look at his season total." Unless you are seen as a surefire every week starter, it doesn't do FF owners a lot of good if you suck one week in their starting lineup, and then produce the following week on their bench. That is why I don't put a ton of stock in Stewart's one very good season, because how many owners were actually starting him every week, much less late in the season, when he did produce, but when you cannot risk going with someone as inconsistent as Stewart?

Chris Johnson is this way too. Just when you need him, he trots out a Week 16 point total of 6.1 against the Packers of all teams, a historically bad defense.

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To clarify: I'm a huge believer in Stewart's talent. But Williams is equally talented and doesn't appear to be going anywhere since the restructure. And Tolbert gets goal-line and 3rd down work. And Cam will likely lead the team in rushing TDs for the forseeable future.

Almost anywhere else Stewart is a fantasy RB1 IMO. But in Carolina I see no reason to expect anything other than a muddled 4 way mess.

I can agree with your point to an extent, though I believe the situation references are slightly overblown. Considering the team was wanting to give him the feature back role last season until he was injured in the first game in the preseason, and that they came to the brink of cutting DW this offseason before he restructured into what ammounted to a massive pay cut, I still believe they want Stew to be the lead back (e.g. they didn't ask him to take a pay cut).

[As an aside, for a snapshot of Chud's Mad Scientist approach, someone tell me why DW only had 6 carries in Week 1 with Stew out, where Carolina lost by 6]

And while the consistency hawks clamor on about his lack of consistency, name me 5 RBs drafted in the 25-35 range that provided, or will provide, consistent scoring.... Better yet, which one of you is going to raise his hand and admit to counting on or needing consistent scoring from your RB3 to win week-in and week-out?

Plus, as I've argued previously, the offense that's been installed in Carolina under the Rivera regime was a good thing for Stew until Chud went crazy. In the last 8 games of 2012 (post Week 9 bye), his scoring production in a standard PPR was as follows:

Week 10 - 9.5 pts

Week 11 - 16.9 pts

Week 12 - 11.2 pts

Week 13 - 17.9 pts

Week 14 - 9.6 pts

Week 15 - 7.1 pts

Week 16 - 16.9 pts

Week 17 - 16.6 pts'

That's the last time he was healthy in this offense, and he was still in a true timeshare given that his high touches during that stretch was 16, which happened once. In fact, he AVERAGED 11.9 touches per game during that stretch.

I believe he can average 12-15 touches per game this season, if not 15+, and I believe he can produce RB2 level production given those touches. I simply cannot fathom, outside of simple spite, why you wouldn't want that on your team given the cost of acquisition.

Edited by JFS171
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So basically if you made it into the fantasy playoffs, you need to win despite starting him instead of because you started him.

Look I know everyone puts up clunkers but realistically there is no way I'd have the stones to start him in Week 16 there. No way. Weeks 10 and 14 aren :yawn: So from weeks 10-17 you have three weeks where you have a shot at starting him with any kind of confidence. Assuming you make the playoffs, he lays two eggs in a row.

He's one of a handfull of wildcards. Chances of hitting are no better than a Woodhead or Ingram.

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Per touch numbers mean little without volume. He just isn't going to be able to get 250+ touches.

Only if you are assuming injury.

Stewart has never had 250 touches. He's only had 200 once in five years, and last year is the only time he's missed significant time due to injury. Stewart < 250 touches looks like a pretty safe bet to me, unless Williams and / or Tolbert get hurt.

I know the anti-Stewart crowd has somehow dismissed this, but Stewart landed in a situation with an excellent RB in DeAngelo Williams. That was the main reason for several years that Stewart didn't see starter touches. 2011 was a RBBC with Williams. 2012 seemed like it was Stewart's time to assume to lead back role... and he promptly had a preseason high ankle sprain and another high ankle sprain on the other ankle later in the year, both of which required surgery.

250 touches is not a huge number to obtain. 14 carries/g and 2 receptions/g > 250 total touches. I just don't see that as a target worthy of saying definitively "he just isn't going to get", unless you are assuming injury.

I get the injury risk. I get the RBBC risk. I get the loss of GL carries risk. Nobody is advocating taking Stewart as your RB1 or even RB2.

I don't get the certainty so many posters have that Stewart CANNOT succeed. I don't get anti-Stewart circle jerk.

Its all about risk tolerance and probabilities of output. There are a wide range of possible outcomes with Jonathon Stewart, it isn't nearly as easy as the circle jerkers indicate to peg down the probabilities of his output.

I don't really see much difference between Stewart and McFadden, yet McFadden continues to be ranked in the Rb 10-20 range. They are both talented and have shown it on the field; IMO Stewart has shown more talent. They have both been oft injured and there continues to be injury risk for both. The only difference is that Stewart had to compete against a great back for touches whereas McFadden has had very little competition and still hasn't had more than one solid season. So why are the two treated so differently?

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Per touch numbers mean little without volume. He just isn't going to be able to get 250+ touches.

Only if you are assuming injury.
Stewart has never had 250 touches. He's only had 200 once in five years, and last year is the only time he's missed significant time due to injury. Stewart < 250 touches looks like a pretty safe bet to me, unless Williams and / or Tolbert get hurt.

I know the anti-Stewart crowd has somehow dismissed this, but Stewart landed in a situation with an excellent RB in DeAngelo Williams. That was the main reason for several years that Stewart didn't see starter touches. 2011 was a RBBC with Williams. 2012 seemed like it was Stewart's time to assume to lead back role... and he promptly had a preseason high ankle sprain and another high ankle sprain on the other ankle later in the year, both of which required surgery.

250 touches is not a huge number to obtain. 14 carries/g and 2 receptions/g > 250 total touches. I just don't see that as a target worthy of saying definitively "he just isn't going to get", unless you

are assuming injury.

I get the injury risk. I get the RBBC risk. I get the loss of GL carries risk. Nobody is advocating taking Stewart as your RB1 or even RB2.

I don't get the certainty so many posters have that Stewart CANNOT succeed. I don't get anti-Stewart circle jerk.

Its all about risk tolerance and probabilities of

output. There are a wide range of possible outcomes with Jonathon Stewart, it isn't nearly as easy as the circle jerkers indicate to peg down the probabilities of his output.

I don't really see much difference between Stewart and McFadden, yet McFadden continues to be ranked in the Rb 10-20 range. They are both talented and have shown it on the field; IMO Stewart has shown more talent. They have both been oft injured and there continues to be injury risk for both. The only difference is that Stewart had to compete against a great back for touches whereas McFadden has had very little competition and still hasn't had more than one solid season. So why are the two treated so differently?

All about the touches. When McFadden is healthy, he gets about 20 touches / game. Stewart not so much. I agree that Stewart is as good a RB as is DMC though.

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Per touch numbers mean little without volume. He just isn't going to be able to get 250+ touches.

Only if you are assuming injury.

Stewart has never had 250 touches. He's only had 200 once in five years, and last year is the only time he's missed significant time due to injury. Stewart < 250 touches looks like a pretty safe bet to me, unless Williams and / or Tolbert get hurt.

I know the anti-Stewart crowd has somehow dismissed this, but Stewart landed in a situation with an excellent RB in DeAngelo Williams. That was the main reason for several years that Stewart didn't see starter touches. 2011 was a RBBC with Williams. 2012 seemed like it was Stewart's time to assume to lead back role... and he promptly had a preseason high ankle sprain and another high ankle sprain on the other ankle later in the year, both of which required surgery.

250 touches is not a huge number to obtain. 14 carries/g and 2 receptions/g > 250 total touches. I just don't see that as a target worthy of saying definitively "he just isn't going to get", unless you are assuming injury.

I get the injury risk. I get the RBBC risk. I get the loss of GL carries risk. Nobody is advocating taking Stewart as your RB1 or even RB2.

I don't get the certainty so many posters have that Stewart CANNOT succeed. I don't get anti-Stewart circle jerk.

Its all about risk tolerance and probabilities of output. There are a wide range of possible outcomes with Jonathon Stewart, it isn't nearly as easy as the circle jerkers indicate to peg down the probabilities of his output.

I don't really see much difference between Stewart and McFadden, yet McFadden continues to be ranked in the Rb 10-20 range. They are both talented and have shown it on the field; IMO Stewart has shown more talent. They have both been oft injured and there continues to be injury risk for both. The only difference is that Stewart had to compete against a great back for touches whereas McFadden has had very little competition and still hasn't had more than one solid season. So why are the two treated so differently?

Probably a fair general comp but I don't understand why anyone would spend a relatively high pick (1st 5 rounds) on either of these guys. They're both major fantasy headaches with armies of apologists, which takes us back to headaches. Personally, I love when owners spend picks this way.

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Probably a fair general comp but I don't understand why anyone would spend a relatively high pick (1st 5 rounds) on either of these guys. They're both major fantasy headaches with armies of apologists, which takes us back to headaches. Personally, I love when owners spend picks this way.

According to MFL.com, Stewart is going off the board (in keeper leagues, no dynasty option) at an average of pick 88/89, as the RB42.

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Per touch numbers mean little without volume. He just isn't going to be able to get 250+ touches.

Only if you are assuming injury.

Stewart has never had 250 touches. He's only had 200 once in five years, and last year is the only time he's missed significant time due to injury. Stewart < 250 touches looks like a pretty safe bet to me, unless Williams and / or Tolbert get hurt.

I know the anti-Stewart crowd has somehow dismissed this, but Stewart landed in a situation with an excellent RB in DeAngelo Williams. That was the main reason for several years that Stewart didn't see starter touches. 2011 was a RBBC with Williams. 2012 seemed like it was Stewart's time to assume to lead back role... and he promptly had a preseason high ankle sprain and another high ankle sprain on the other ankle later in the year, both of which required surgery.

250 touches is not a huge number to obtain. 14 carries/g and 2 receptions/g > 250 total touches. I just don't see that as a target worthy of saying definitively "he just isn't going to get", unless you are assuming injury.

I get the injury risk. I get the RBBC risk. I get the loss of GL carries risk. Nobody is advocating taking Stewart as your RB1 or even RB2.

I don't get the certainty so many posters have that Stewart CANNOT succeed. I don't get anti-Stewart circle jerk.

Its all about risk tolerance and probabilities of output. There are a wide range of possible outcomes with Jonathon Stewart, it isn't nearly as easy as the circle jerkers indicate to peg down the probabilities of his output.

I don't really see much difference between Stewart and McFadden, yet McFadden continues to be ranked in the Rb 10-20 range. They are both talented and have shown it on the field; IMO Stewart has shown more talent. They have both been oft injured and there continues to be injury risk for both. The only difference is that Stewart had to compete against a great back for touches whereas McFadden has had very little competition and still hasn't had more than one solid season. So why are the two treated so differently?

their QB (Carolina has a pretty good rushing QB that isnt going anywhere) and the fact that McFadden if healthy wont share touches with any RB.

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Rotoworld:

ESPN's Pat Yasinskas "gets the sense" Jonathan Stewart (ankle surgeries) won't practice before the "middle or end" of training camp.

Yasinskas is an ex-Panthers beat writer. Stewart has been maddeningly slow to recover from offseason surgery on both ankles, and recently couldn't even play golf at a July tournament in which he'd been enrolled. Stewart will be an extremely dicey fantasy pick. DeAngelo Williams' arrow is quietly pointing up.
Source: ESPN.com
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One problem with Stewart is that he always seems to be so hit and miss. Even going back to his 2011 campaign you couldn't really use him.

In my PPR he went

6.0

18.5

11.5

12.5

4.3

16.5

11.8

7.9

BYE

8.5

16.9

11.2

17.9

9.6

7.1

16.9

16.6

That's tough sledding trying to pick out when to use him. Looking at that risk and knowing how hard it is to play a guy in a slump. I can see starting him in the bolded games only. By his very nature of being so hit and miss you miss a lot more than you should. I won't start a healthy player coming off a week where he scored less than 10 PPR points if I have other options. His Week 16 and 17 seasons are useless because nobody is going to put a player coming off consecutive <10 games into the lineup unless that absolutely have to.

You start him in Week 1 and he flops. How confident are you for week 2? Then he goes off and you kick yourself for not starting him only to insert him back in week 3 where he puts in a yeoman 11.5 followed by a decent 12.5 in week 4. Trending up right? Nope, you play him week 5 and he loses your week for you with a 4.5 outing. Stung from that you miss out on the 16.5 point game in Week 6. Rinse and repeat. Hopefully benched him coming off that 17.9 point week 13 romp because if you started him in Week 14 for your playoff wildcard game, you probably lost because of it.

He had decent aggregate stats in 2011, but it didn't do much good if you were simply trying to guess when he'd show up.

Had you not listed the player's name, I think I would have guessed that is a Chris Johnson stat line. Mr. "7 or 27"'s handy work. I only bring this up to illustrate something in relation to JSTEW. Similar to Chris Johnson, those who believe in JSTEW or want to believe in him do so largely out of the fact that he has shown that he can be a very dynamic player in ff. The people who don't believe in him or don't want to do so largely because they are the people that have owned him and pulled their hair out because while he may have helped them feast one month, he starved them the next year.

But overall, regardless of where you stand on him (and that is likely largely due to your experience with him), he really is no different than a lot of players like Chris Johnson, Nicks, McFadden, and others that tantilize you when healthy but always seems to disappoint in one way or another. But JSTEW gets the lionshare of the criticism because he was annointed when he came out. he was supposed to be one of the next big things and people tend to turn on the ones that burn them when they invested a lot into them. In essence, people hate being wrong.

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No offense to the raving pro-Stewart crowd, but if he were really that head-and-shoulders above the rest über talented, there'd be absolutely no question he would be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield. This is the NFL, not pee-wee football where the coach is going to start his son no matter what. Even poor coaches in the NFL can recognize and utilize such alleged superior physical talent.

I get a much greater feeling that this is just another case of people being fooled by the measurables and refusing to admit their mistake.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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No offense to the raving pro-Stewart crowd, but if he were really that head-and-shoulders above the rest über talented, there'd be absolutely no question he would be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield. This is the NFL, not pee-wee football where the coach is going to start his son no matter what. Even poor coaches in the NFL can recognize and utilize such alleged superior physical talent.

I get a much greater feeling that this is just another case of people being fooled by the measurables and refusing to admit their mistake.

Or it's a case that the Panthers have 2 REALLY good RBs. If you look at DeAngelo's career numbers, he's pretty damn good himself. Don't have the stats handy but want to say he has a 5.+ yard per carry average.

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No offense to the raving pro-Stewart crowd, but if he were really that head-and-shoulders above the rest über talented, there'd be absolutely no question he would be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield. This is the NFL, not pee-wee football where the coach is going to start his son no matter what. Even poor coaches in the NFL can recognize and utilize such alleged superior physical talent.

I get a much greater feeling that this is just another case of people being fooled by the measurables and refusing to admit their mistake.

Or it's a case that the Panthers have 2 REALLY good RBs. If you look at DeAngelo's career numbers, he's pretty damn good himself. Don't have the stats handy but want to say he has a 5.+ yard per carry average.

If DeAngelo was really good he would be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield.

If Michael Turner was really good he'd be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield.

If Tiki Barber was really good he'd be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield.

If Charlie Garner was really good he'd be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield.

Some people can't imagine anything that hasn't already happened.

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No offense to the raving pro-Stewart crowd, but if he were really that head-and-shoulders above the rest über talented, there'd be absolutely no question he would be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield. This is the NFL, not pee-wee football where the coach is going to start his son no matter what. Even poor coaches in the NFL can recognize and utilize such alleged superior physical talent.

I get a much greater feeling that this is just another case of people being fooled by the measurables and refusing to admit their mistake.

Or it's a case that the Panthers have 2 REALLY good RBs. If you look at DeAngelo's career numbers, he's pretty damn good himself. Don't have the stats handy but want to say he has a 5.+ yard per carry average.

If DeAngelo was really good he would be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield.

If Michael Turner was really good he'd be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield.

If Tiki Barber was really good he'd be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield.

If Charlie Garner was really good he'd be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield.

Some people can't imagine anything that hasn't already happened.

I don't see you naming anyone who was as physically dominant as Stewart is purported to be.

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Williams has been a victim of circumstance just as much as Stewart. His 4.9 career YPC is one of the best in the league. Stick him on another team and he probably would've had a Ray Rice type of career. It just wasn't in the cards for him. You can blame that on him, or you can recognize that it's the result of several factors that are mostly unrelated to his ability.

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No offense to the raving pro-Stewart crowd, but if he were really that head-and-shoulders above the rest über talented, there'd be absolutely no question he would be getting the lion's share of the work no matter who else was in the backfield. This is the NFL, not pee-wee football where the coach is going to start his son no matter what. Even poor coaches in the NFL can recognize and utilize such alleged superior physical talent.

I get a much greater feeling that this is just another case of people being fooled by the measurables and refusing to admit their mistake.

Tell that to Todd Haley and Jamaal Charles.

The Stewart/Williams situation has been the exception to the way the NFL usually works. Sucks for fantasy owners.

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Well, I could certainly be wrong, but it's been my experience that great players don't require multitudes of people making excuses for their underwhelming careers, and that great players at a point in their careers that they should be optimizing production that there isn't a need for discussions about buying low.

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