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[DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low?


EBF

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Well, I could certainly be wrong, but it's been my experience that great players don't require multitudes of people making excuses for their underwhelming careers, and that great players at a point in their careers that they should be optimizing production that there isn't a need for discussions about buying low.

I think the problem is that he's no longer a "great" player. I think his lower leg injuries have sapped him of much of his explosiveness. Having bilateral ankle surgey may help - but it could also make it worse.

At one point he did possess a rare size/speed combo, and showed what he could do when Williams was out - but unfortunately he was stuck in a timeshare and then a poor offense during his prime, while continuing to get nicked up more and more over time. I can't imagine he's going to get much better during the downslope of his career either.

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I think the problem is that he's no longer a "great" player. I think his lower leg injuries have sapped him of much of his explosiveness.

Maybe. Maybe not. Last season was the first time in his career when he has averaged below 4.3 YPC. Presumably the injuries played a role in his poor performance and presumably the surgeries will help him get back to his old level. He's a few months older than Michael Crabtree, who has also been hampered by foot injuries throughout his career and who is also recovering from a surgery. Most people retain some optimism that Crabtree will get back to his best. I don't know that Stewart should be viewed differently.

As FF players, we're prone to thinking that players who score FF points = good and players who don't score FF points = bad. The fact that Stewart has been a perennial disappointment in FF terms is driving a lot of the negativity about his future outlook. He has been relatively useless in recent seasons, therefore he's judged as automatic crap who will never have value in the future. Crabtree (who scored a lot of FF points last season) is thought by many to be a good buy low opportunity. Stewart (who was useless in FF last season) is thought by many to be hopeless junk. That's not a coincidence, as the immediate past tends to dictate the way that most FF owners estimate future value. Whoever was good yesterday = will be good tomorrow. Whoever was bad yesterday = will be bad tomorrow.

The problem with such a simplistic approach is that you're going to miss out on good players who are mired in adversity for reasons not entirely related to their talent level. How many people gave up on Thomas Jones when he washed out of Arizona as a failure? How many people gave up on Cedric Benson when he washed out of Chicago? How many people gave up on Marshawn Lynch when he lost his vice grip on the starting job in Buffalo and was traded for a song? Sometimes a bust is just a bust, but other times a good player suffering through adversity will be confused with a bust. If you can recognize the distinction, it will create buy low opportunities. That's what I've attempted to do with my RB acquisitions over the past 12 months. Virtually everyone that I've acquired in multiple leagues fits the mold of "talented player who has fallen out of fashion." Mendenhall. Stewart. Mathews. Mike Dyer in my dev leagues. I'm on the lookout for reclamation projects because it's a proven and reliable way to get good players for below their actual worth.

As far as Stewart goes, I don't have much to add to the discussion that I haven't already said. He's already proven himself to be a very good NFL RB. The main issues going forward are whether or not he can eventually get healthy and get the opportunity needed to produce consistent FF results. It's not a certainty, but it's not a huge stretch either. I think the long term outlook justifies his current price tag in most leagues. The fact that the herd mentality is trampling all over him right now is part of what makes him a compelling buy low candidate. Like Thomas Jones pre-Tampa or Cedric Benson pre-Bengals. Low optimism = low price tag = more upside and more margin for error. That's what I look for in an investment.

Edited by EBF
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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart (ankle surgeries) will undergo an "extensive" physical Thursday at Panthers headquarters.

The physical will determine whether Stewart is cleared for the beginning of training camp. "Thursday is when we'll get the definitive (answer)," coach Ron Rivera said. "Kind of hoping he's ready to go, or ready to go in a limited capacity, once we get there on Thursday." Stewart's health status remains a major concern. His Average Draft Position is the early- to mid-eighth round.
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The problem with such a simplistic approach is that you're going to miss out on good players who are mired in adversity for reasons not entirely related to their talent level. How many people gave up on Thomas Jones when he washed out of Arizona as a failure? How many people gave up on Cedric Benson when he washed out of Chicago? How many people gave up on Marshawn Lynch when he lost his vice grip on the starting job in Buffalo and was traded for a song? Sometimes a bust is just a bust, but other times a good player suffering through adversity will be confused with a bust. If you can recognize the distinction, it will create buy low opportunities.

Those guys got out of their bad situation and into their new ones relatively early in their careers. Had Stewart (or Williams) moved to a new team, everyone would be all over him. But, Stewart is still in Carolina, entering his 6th season, coming off an injury, and still with the same teammate who has out gained him over the last two seasons. At some point, he may finally have a great season, but when will that be? This year doesn't appear likely. Is it really worth burning a roster spot waiting for that possibility?

Edited by Hoosier16
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I think the problem is that he's no longer a "great" player. I think his lower leg injuries have sapped him of much of his explosiveness.

Maybe. Maybe not. Last season was the first time in his career when he has averaged below 4.3 YPC. Presumably the injuries played a role in his poor performance and presumably the surgeries will help him get back to his old level. He's a few months older than Michael Crabtree, who has also been hampered by foot injuries throughout his career and who is also recovering from a surgery. Most people retain some optimism that Crabtree will get back to his best. I don't know that Stewart should be viewed differently.

As FF players, we're prone to thinking that players who score FF points = good and players who don't score FF points = bad. The fact that Stewart has been a perennial disappointment in FF terms is driving a lot of the negativity about his future outlook. He has been relatively useless in recent seasons, therefore he's judged as automatic crap who will never have value in the future. Crabtree (who scored a lot of FF points last season) is thought by many to be a good buy low opportunity. Stewart (who was useless in FF last season) is thought by many to be hopeless junk. That's not a coincidence, as the immediate past tends to dictate the way that most FF owners estimate future value. Whoever was good yesterday = will be good tomorrow. Whoever was bad yesterday = will be bad tomorrow.

The problem with such a simplistic approach is that you're going to miss out on good players who are mired in adversity for reasons not entirely related to their talent level. How many people gave up on Thomas Jones when he washed out of Arizona as a failure? How many people gave up on Cedric Benson when he washed out of Chicago? How many people gave up on Marshawn Lynch when he lost his vice grip on the starting job in Buffalo and was traded for a song? Sometimes a bust is just a bust, but other times a good player suffering through adversity will be confused with a bust. If you can recognize the distinction, it will create buy low opportunities. That's what I've attempted to do with my RB acquisitions over the past 12 months. Virtually everyone that I've acquired in multiple leagues fits the mold of "talented player who has fallen out of fashion." Mendenhall. Stewart. Mathews. Mike Dyer in my dev leagues. I'm on the lookout for reclamation projects because it's a proven and reliable way to get good players for below their actual worth.

As far as Stewart goes, I don't have much to add to the discussion that I haven't already said. He's already proven himself to be a very good NFL RB. The main issues going forward are whether or not he can eventually get healthy and get the opportunity needed to produce consistent FF results. It's not a certainty, but it's not a huge stretch either. I think the long term outlook justifies his current price tag in most leagues. The fact that the herd mentality is trampling all over him right now is part of what makes him a compelling buy low candidate. Like Thomas Jones pre-Tampa or Cedric Benson pre-Bengals. Low optimism = low price tag = more upside and more margin for error. That's what I look for in an investment.

First off, you're really going to compare a WR and RB at the same age? RB's maybe make it to age 30, WR's maybe make it to age 35. It's not even a contest as to why Crabtree should be valued higher.

Next, you're going to compare Jstew to Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson/Marshawn Lynch?

At their 5th year in the NFL(what Jstew has had)

Thomas Jones is coming off of a 948 yard rushing effort his 1st year in Chicago.

Cedric Benson is coming off of a 1,251 yard rushing effort his 2nd year in Cinci.

Marshawn Lynch is coming off a 737 yard rushing effort between Buffalo/Seattle.

Jonathan Stewart is coming off a 336 yard rushing effort his 5th season with Carolina.

-one of these doesn't look like the other. None of them resurrected their career on the team they started magically in season 6.

-Also none of them had a huge injury list like Jstew(see below)

Lets look at the ankle/lower leg injuries:

-Sophomore in HS, missed almost half the season due to an ankle injury

-Freshman year of college, missed 2 games and was limited in others due to an ankle injury

-Sophomore season, missed time due to lingering ankle issues

-March 2008(after combine), surgery on big toe

-2009 battled Achilles/heel/toe injuries and was listed as questionable for 9 games/probably for 6 more games

-2010 listed as probably due to a foot injury(missed 2 games due to a concussion as well)

-2012 right ankle injury, misses 7 games, listed as questionable/doubtful/probable on pretty much every other game and hurt ankle in preseason

-2013 surgery on both ankles

Are you really trusting his ankles on that 235 pound frame?

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart (ankles) will not participate in the Panthers' first practice of training camp.

Officially, Stewart is considered day to day. But given his history and the fact that he's coming off dual ankle surgeries, we wouldn't be surprised if he missed a good chunk of camp. The Panthers have repeatedly said that they have no real timetable on exactly when he'll be able to suit up. DeAngelo Williams is listed on top of the depth chart for now and will rightfully see his stock begin to rise in fantasy circles. Stewart is currently going two or three rounds ahead of Williams.
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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart (ankles) will not participate in the Panthers' first practice of training camp.

Officially, Stewart is considered day to day. But given his history and the fact that he's coming off dual ankle surgeries, we wouldn't be surprised if he missed a good chunk of camp. The Panthers have repeatedly said that they have no real timetable on exactly when he'll be able to suit up. DeAngelo Williams is listed on top of the depth chart for now and will rightfully see his stock begin to rise in fantasy circles. Stewart is currently going two or three rounds ahead of Williams.

Add this to the list of ankle issues I listed above

-Missed at least day one of training camp

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart said his left ankle has healed well but his right one is "still an issue."

Stewart underwent surgery on both of his ankles early in the offseason and is not ready for the start of training camp. He says the surgery on the left side was a "tightening up" while the right side cleaned out loose bodies. Stewart added that he plans to be ready for Week 1, but that's far from a certainty right now. Fantasy owners will be sprinting away from a running back with two bad wheels playing in a committee.
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I think the problem is that he's no longer a "great" player. I think his lower leg injuries have sapped him of much of his explosiveness.

Maybe. Maybe not. Last season was the first time in his career when he has averaged below 4.3 YPC. Presumably the injuries played a role in his poor performance and presumably the surgeries will help him get back to his old level.

I did say he was a great back at one point. The last two seasons however he hasn't looked the same to me. He's suffered a lot of lower leg injuries over the years and it may have caught up to him.

It is also possible that he comes back refreshed and runs pain free following the surgery as you say. It's probably just as likely however that he doesn't get back to his old level after surgeries on both ankles this offseason and with his legs growing yet another year older. You orginal premise of this thread likely still stands if you can buy low - but the risks of not gaining a return on your investment is increasing, you'd have to admit that at least.

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart said his left ankle has healed well but his right one is "still an issue."

Stewart underwent surgery on both of his ankles early in the offseason and is not ready for the start of training camp. He says the surgery on the left side was a "tightening up" while the right side cleaned out loose bodies. Stewart added that he plans to be ready for Week 1, but that's far from a certainty right now. Fantasy owners will be sprinting away from a running back with two bad wheels playing in a committee.

Of course it is....why would a veteran run around in the heat of training camp when he can use his ankle as an excuse. Veteran move.

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart said his left ankle has healed well but his right one is "still an issue."

Stewart underwent surgery on both of his ankles early in the offseason and is not ready for the start of training camp. He says the surgery on the left side was a "tightening up" while the right side cleaned out loose bodies. Stewart added that he plans to be ready for Week 1, but that's far from a certainty right now. Fantasy owners will be sprinting away from a running back with two bad wheels playing in a committee.

Of course it is....why would a veteran run around in the heat of training camp when he can use his ankle as an excuse. Veteran move.

Right, he's probably out golfing....oh wait.

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I think the problem is that he's no longer a "great" player. I think his lower leg injuries have sapped him of much of his explosiveness.

Maybe. Maybe not. Last season was the first time in his career when he has averaged below 4.3 YPC. Presumably the injuries played a role in his poor performance and presumably the surgeries will help him get back to his old level.

I did say he was a great back at one point. The last two seasons however he hasn't looked the same to me. He's suffered a lot of lower leg injuries over the years and it may have caught up to him.

It is also possible that he comes back refreshed and runs pain free following the surgery as you say. It's probably just as likely however that he doesn't get back to his old level after surgeries on both ankles this offseason and with his legs growing yet another year older. You orginal premise of this thread likely still stands if you can buy low - but the risks of not gaining a return on your investment is increasing, you'd have to admit that at least.

He averaged 5.4 YPC in 2011, so while he might not have looked the same to you, it doesn't seem like his effectiveness was down at all.

Last season was his first objectively "bad" year.

As for the nagging injuries, prior to last season he had missed just two games in his first three years in the league. That's not a particularly troubling injury history. You can say that he was banged up during some of those early seasons, but if he was healthy enough to play and perform well then I'm not sure how much it matters. Playing with pain and minor injuries is part of the job description for a running back. One season-ending injury in four seasons is probably about average for the position.

There's a chance that he'll never get back to his old level, but I think that outcome is being overblown because it fits the trendy narrative that Stewart is a bust and a waste of space. As I said earlier, his disappointing 2012 season and his lifelong RBBC status are driving that negativity. It's understandable why people have become frustrated with him, but at the same time his career isn't necessarily over. He's not an old guy and, compared to a lot NFL backs his age, doesn't have a great deal of mileage on his body. Assuming that the surgeries will accomplish what they were intended to accomplish, there's little reason why he can't eventually return and be relevant for several more years. I also think he's a guy who could surrender a little bit of speed/burst and still be effective. When you have the kind of athletic gifts that Stewart has, you can lose a fraction of your speed/quickness and still be average in those categories relative to a typical 220+ pound NFL starter.

As for his risk increasing, that's reflected in his price tag. In past seasons you likely would've needed to spend a high pick to get Stewart. At this point his price has fallen to an all-time low. Nobody is saying that he should be a top 10 dynasty RB. Only that he makes sense for what he'll cost in a typical league. If you have the roster space and you don't need instant impact, I think he's a nice player to hold in hopes that he'll come back at a high level. The 4 year age gap between him and Williams means the indefinite RBBC that has plagued their FF careers can't go on forever. The window of opportunity when Williams fades and Stewart takes over is what you're banking on if you buy/hold him now.

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart said his left ankle has healed well but his right one is "still an issue."

Stewart underwent surgery on both of his ankles early in the offseason and is not ready for the start of training camp. He says the surgery on the left side was a "tightening up" while the right side cleaned out loose bodies. Stewart added that he plans to be ready for Week 1, but that's far from a certainty right now. Fantasy owners will be sprinting away from a running back with two bad wheels playing in a committee.

Of course it is....why would a veteran run around in the heat of training camp when he can use his ankle as an excuse. Veteran move.

Right, he's probably out golfing....oh wait.

Thats right...why would he go out golfing when he knows he wants to use his ankle for an excuse to skip most of camp. Again veteran move.

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I think the problem is that he's no longer a "great" player. I think his lower leg injuries have sapped him of much of his explosiveness.

Maybe. Maybe not. Last season was the first time in his career when he has averaged below 4.3 YPC. Presumably the injuries played a role in his poor performance and presumably the surgeries will help him get back to his old level.

I did say he was a great back at one point. The last two seasons however he hasn't looked the same to me. He's suffered a lot of lower leg injuries over the years and it may have caught up to him.

It is also possible that he comes back refreshed and runs pain free following the surgery as you say. It's probably just as likely however that he doesn't get back to his old level after surgeries on both ankles this offseason and with his legs growing yet another year older. You orginal premise of this thread likely still stands if you can buy low - but the risks of not gaining a return on your investment is increasing, you'd have to admit that at least.

He averaged 5.4 YPC in 2011, so while he might not have looked the same to you, it doesn't seem like his effectiveness was down at all.

Last season was his first objectively "bad" year.

As for the nagging injuries, prior to last season he had missed just two games in his first three years in the league. That's not a particularly troubling injury history. You can say that he was banged up during some of those early seasons, but if he was healthy enough to play and perform well then I'm not sure how much it matters. Playing with pain and minor injuries is part of the job description for a running back. One season-ending injury in four seasons is probably about average for the position.

There's a chance that he'll never get back to his old level, but I think that outcome is being overblown because it fits the trendy narrative that Stewart is a bust and a waste of space. As I said earlier, his disappointing 2012 season and his lifelong RBBC status are driving that negativity. It's understandable why people have become frustrated with him, but at the same time his career isn't necessarily over. He's not an old guy and, compared to a lot NFL backs his age, doesn't have a great deal of mileage on his body. Assuming that the surgeries will accomplish what they were intended to accomplish, there's little reason why he can't eventually return and be relevant for several more years. I also think he's a guy who could surrender a little bit of speed/burst and still be effective. When you have the kind of athletic gifts that Stewart has, you can lose a fraction of your speed/quickness and still be average in those categories relative to a typical 220+ pound NFL starter.

As for his risk increasing, that's reflected in his price tag. In past seasons you likely would've needed to spend a high pick to get Stewart. At this point his price has fallen to an all-time low. Nobody is saying that he should be a top 10 dynasty RB. Only that he makes sense for what he'll cost in a typical league. If you have the roster space and you don't need instant impact, I think he's a nice player to hold in hopes that he'll come back at a high level. The 4 year age gap between him and Williams means the indefinite RBBC that has plagued their FF careers can't go on forever. The window of opportunity when Williams fades and Stewart takes over is what you're banking on if you buy/hold him now.

I'm still waiting your reply above.

If the surgeries do what they're supposed to...that only works to a point. At some point the Force/Pressure placed on those ankles/feet/Achilles/toes can only take so much. They've all caused him problems in his football career.

Stewart also costs a roster spot every year and I can't think of one RB that's become FF dominant entering his 6th season with the same team.

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Rotoworld:

Panthers placed Jonathan Stewart (ankles) on the active/PUP list.

As expected. Stewart underwent an "extensive" physical Thursday, and he acknowledged that his left ankle has healed well but the right one is "still an issue." He's out indefinitely, and DeAngelo Williams has a chance to run away with the job as the lead dog in the Carolina backfield this summer.
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Referencing his combine numbers at this point isn't the best argument.

Exactly. On top of that, this guy is chronically nicked up and that just gets worse as you get older too. And now he's on the PUP list after offseason surgery on both ankles. I would put his value in the RB40-45 range. So around 8/9 turn in a 12 team league at the earliest. I would also rank DeAngelo at least one spot ahead of him, but honestly will go out of my way to avoid both of them.

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he has had over 80 yards rushing twice in 2 years and he's already hurt. Deangelo is the only back on this team you want so you can at least play him against the Saints. Deangelo kills the Saints. Past 5 years:

2012) 14/69/1 12.9

21/210/2 33.3

2011) 9/115/1 17.5

7/53/0 7.3

2010) 13/86/1 16.0

2009) 21/149/2 28.1

2008) 18/66/0 13.0

25/178/0 17.8

Stewart is practically useless. for a rb3-4 Deangelo might get in your lineup for a couple games.

Edited by mastergg
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Update: Dumped him for Martellus Bennett. I feel much better now. Guy is another Cadillac Williams. Good Riddance.

One a side note, if he's ever going to take off, it will be now after I've cut him. So you owners have that going for you.

Edited by Sabertooth
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i always love the draft because someone will take him and then be mad in a couple of months that it did not work and it is nice to see my opposition using picks on guys that do not work out that is what the name of the game is all about in winnerville brohans take that to the bank

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Can't get it to cut-n-paste but story on CBS but apparently the Panthers have "no idea" when he might return.

"It could be any day or it could carry into the regular season"

My own speculation, he's gonna need another scope on the right ankle that didn't heal right.

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Can't get it to cut-n-paste but story on CBS but apparently the Panthers have "no idea" when he might return.

"It could be any day or it could carry into the regular season"

My own speculation, he's gonna need another scope on the right ankle that didn't heal right.

Source: 'No idea' when Jonathan Stewart will be back
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

Jonathan Stewart remains on the PUP list at Panthers training camp as a source with knowledge of the situation tells CBSSports.com there's "no idea" when he'll be ready to return.

Stewart had surgery on both of his ankles this offseason, one in January, one in February. According to the source, doctors don't know why one ankle healed properly while the other, his right ankle, is still giving him trouble. He continues to rehab in hopes of getting back on the field but the situation remains fluid.

"It could be any day or it could carry on into the regular season," the source said.

DeAngelo Williams has taken most of the first-team reps with the offense while Stewart sits out.

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Stewart is the textbook case of why you need to consider more than talent and natural ability when drafting players.

IF Stewart could stay healthy and IF he played as the clear lead back on a team and IF he received GL carries, then he could be a top 10 back, possibly top five due to his talent and natural ability.

However none of those IFs have ever come true and there is absolutely no reason to believe they ever will. If you see things changing any time in the near future you are just seeing what you want to see and not what the objective situation is telling you.

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Williams has been a victim of circumstance just as much as Stewart. His 4.9 career YPC is one of the best in the league. Stick him on another team and he probably would've had a Ray Rice type of career. It just wasn't in the cards for him. You can blame that on him, or you can recognize that it's the result of several factors that are mostly unrelated to his ability.

Except that Ray Rice has been able to stay healthy season after season while getting 20+ touches a game, while Stewart cannot stay healthy even when getting limited touches.

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Stewart is the textbook case of why you need to consider more than talent and natural ability when drafting players.

IF Stewart could stay healthy and IF he played as the clear lead back on a team and IF he received GL carries, then he could be a top 10 back, possibly top five due to his talent and natural ability.

However none of those IFs have ever come true and there is absolutely no reason to believe they ever will. If you see things changing any time in the near future you are just seeing what you want to see and not what the objective situation is telling you.

I agree with your statement but you know how it is in fantasy forums. 90% of the people in the forums spend two months talking up 40 times, vertical leaps and short shuttle times. The other 10% talk about BMI indexes, vision, and appropriate body build as it relates to position X.

Again, I think you're right but it is counter to almost all of us to not put the vast majority of the weight on these aspects.

Think of it this way: If a guy like LamIchael James was on a waiver wire and Gore went down in Week 4 and they said James was the new guy, you know he is going to be the pickup of the week year in fantasy. I think its been an annual occurrence in green bay for the past three years where some no-name becomes the guy everyone talks about. So, with JSTEW, a guy that we have seen some things from, there is simply nothing you can do but hold him and day dream or think you're clever and buy him because as much as is true about him from the negative aspet, it is also true that this is one of those guys that could, in the right situation, be picked up and literally carry you to a league title.

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Stewart is the textbook case of why you need to consider more than talent and natural ability when drafting players.

IF Stewart could stay healthy and IF he played as the clear lead back on a team and IF he received GL carries, then he could be a top 10 back, possibly top five due to his talent and natural ability.

However none of those IFs have ever come true and there is absolutely no reason to believe they ever will. If you see things changing any time in the near future you are just seeing what you want to see and not what the objective situation is telling you.

He missed two games in his first three NFL seasons. I think the idea that he can't stay healthy mainly comes from last season/this offseason. I think some players are more injury prone than others, but almost every starting RB in the NFL has had a season-ending injury at some point in his career. Comes with the territory. So maybe Stewart really is a guy who can't stay healthy, but I think that argument gets too much play and is a convenient rationalization owners use to justify their negative first instinct wrt to this player.

That's why I used the Crabtree comparison. The two players are pretty similar in terms of age/injury history. Yet most people hold out hope for Crabtree while dismissing Stewart's chances. When someone has been producing good FF stats, we tend to be more optimistic about their chances of overcoming adversity because we have a more positive overall impression of the player. When someone has been a bust in FF, we tend to be more pessimistic about their chances of overcoming adversity because we already have a negative impression of the player. Hence why Crabtree's injury is viewed as a mere setback whereas Stewart's injury is viewed as definitive proof that he's done.

I can't argue about the lack of opportunity. I blame that more on Carolina's management than Stewart though. They had two franchise backs and kept both of them. You don't see that very often. I think it was a mistake. They should've let one of them walk and spent the money to strengthen other areas. Decisions like this are part of the reason why Carolina has been a losing team the last several years.

The main thing I want to see is whether or not Stewart can get back to 100%. I think that's the most important variable. The "if" is a lot more important than the "when" to me. If he doesn't come back until week 6, but he looks good and plays well, that will be a good outcome. If he comes back in week 1, but looks slow and ineffective, that will be troubling.

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Everything is a bet. You are betting that your pick at the round (price) they are taken outperforms or performs up to that slot.

When making a bet you should consider everything.

You could make the case that everything at his ADP is a longshot, but that's simply not true. D-WIll, who has had a much more productive season than Stewart, and who is currently uninjured and practicing exclusively with the firs team, has a lower ADP:

http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/2013/cheatsheets.cfm?Player_Pos=RB&page=2

All I'm saying is, if you are just looking at talent and ignoring durability, role, and team, you are probably making a lot of bad bets in fantasy. Stewart is a textbook case of how that can lead one down the wrong path.

IOW

Positives

Natural talent and ability

Negatives

Current team situation

Future team outlook

Past performances

Current injury situation

Past injury history

This is easy folks

Edited by Clifford
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Stewart is the textbook case of why you need to consider more than talent and natural ability when drafting players.

IF Stewart could stay healthy and IF he played as the clear lead back on a team and IF he received GL carries, then he could be a top 10 back, possibly top five due to his talent and natural ability.

However none of those IFs have ever come true and there is absolutely no reason to believe they ever will. If you see things changing any time in the near future you are just seeing what you want to see and not what the objective situation is telling you.

I can't argue about the lack of opportunity. I blame that more on Carolina's management than Stewart though. They had two franchise backs and kept both of them. You don't see that very often. I think it was a mistake. They should've let one of them walk and spent the money to strengthen other areas. Decisions like this are part of the reason why Carolina has been a losing team the last several years.

Have to comment on this: what, in your opinion, would have been the right move?

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Stewart is the textbook case of why you need to consider more than talent and natural ability when drafting players.

IF Stewart could stay healthy and IF he played as the clear lead back on a team and IF he received GL carries, then he could be a top 10 back, possibly top five due to his talent and natural ability.

However none of those IFs have ever come true and there is absolutely no reason to believe they ever will. If you see things changing any time in the near future you are just seeing what you want to see and not what the objective situation is telling you.

I can't argue about the lack of opportunity. I blame that more on Carolina's management than Stewart though. They had two franchise backs and kept both of them. You don't see that very often. I think it was a mistake. They should've let one of them walk and spent the money to strengthen other areas. Decisions like this are part of the reason why Carolina has been a losing team the last several years.

Have to comment on this: what, in your opinion, would have been the right move?

RB is a non-premium position. I think you can always find serviceable players there in the mid rounds of the NFL draft. With that being the case, I'd be reluctant to give a second contract to one veteran RB, much less two. Even if they're two of the best players on your roster, you really only need one elite back. Better to spend the money on a starter at a different position.

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If you've come up with a way to predict, before a player is drafted, which ones will be stuck behind other elite talent or have chronic injury problems get the hell out of here and go get rich.

I hear ya, but these foot problems date back to his high school days. Definition of chronic

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If you've come up with a way to predict, before a player is drafted, which ones will be stuck behind other elite talent or have chronic injury problems get the hell out of here and go get rich.

I hear ya, but these foot problems date back to his high school days. Definition of chronic

The deal is worth $37.811 million and includes $23 million in guaranteed money. Stewart received a $9 million signing bonus and his salary-cap figure for 2012 jumped $1 million to $4.78 million. In 2013, Stewart will make $1 million in base salary and his cap figure will be $2.8 million.

That is a crap load of money to tie up on a guy that was known to have chronic foot problems back to his high school days.

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Not only that, they drafted him fresh off of a foot surgery and gave him a top 12 contract back when rookies where still getting monster contracts. So that's two sizable contracts they gave him. Either theirmedical staff is incompetent or they have no feel for risk management.

Edited by Steed
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As FF players, we're prone to thinking that players who score FF points = good and players who don't score FF points = bad. Whoever was good yesterday = will be good tomorrow. Whoever was bad yesterday = will be bad tomorrow.

The problem with such a simplistic approach is that you're going to miss out on good players who are mired in adversity for reasons not entirely related to their talent level. ...I'm on the lookout for reclamation projects because it's a proven and reliable way to get good players for below their actual worth.

This is not true at all. You're arguing against a strawman that doesn't exist.

It's pretty cocky and simplistic to believe that you're the only one who looks for 'buy low' opportunities while everyone else only judges future value 100% based on past performance.

Trust me, you're not special just because you're "on the lookout for reclamation projects"...you're doing the same things that we all do.

Or maybe you need to leave the Yahoo public leagues and find some real competition if that's been your past experience.

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If you've come up with a way to predict, before a player is drafted, which ones will be stuck behind other elite talent or have chronic injury problems get the hell out of here and go get rich.

I hear ya, but these foot problems date back to his high school days. Definition of chronic

The deal is worth $37.811 million and includes $23 million in guaranteed money. Stewart received a $9 million signing bonus and his salary-cap figure for 2012 jumped $1 million to $4.78 million. In 2013, Stewart will make $1 million in base salary and his cap figure will be $2.8 million.

That is a crap load of money to tie up on a guy that was known to have chronic foot problems back to his high school days.

Was it the same regime that gave DWill his big contract. I sense a trend...

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Not only that, they drafted him fresh off of a foot surgery and gave him a top 12 contract back when rookies where still getting monster contracts. So that's two sizable contracts they gave him. Either theirmedical staff is incompetent or they have no feel for risk management.

I hear ya...Though I didn't see where he missed a game in college. Which makes it appear he may be a I'll take my money and sit on my a** type player.

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We've been through the contract stuff before. The Panthers came out of the lock out well below the mandated salary floor under the new CBA, so they had to spend money. They stupidly spent it on the key players from a team that just finished 2-14, but they HAD to spend money.

DW benefitted from that situation. Stewart, on the other hand, is the one they signed based largely on merit, not because they HAD to spend the money, but rather because they WANTED to keep him. Then you see them restructure DW this year under the new regime, essentially once again saying (if you believe the money shows the true thoughts of the team) that Stewart is more highly valued than DW.

Prior to his draft, the surgeon that performed his ankle surgery was the Panthers' team doctor (I'm 99% sure of this). There was talk in Charlotte about how the team wasn't concerned about the ankles because their own team physician was the one that had been Stew's doctor. If he's not healing right now, then I'm not sure how that could have been predicted, but it's obviously a positive sign that the left ankle DID heal properly.

This may take a scope to rectify the right ankle, but I'd rather them get on with it so he just misses camp and the first few weeks, as opposed to dragging it out. I'm personally still betting on talent.

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Stewart is the textbook case of why you need to consider more than talent and natural ability when drafting players.

IF Stewart could stay healthy and IF he played as the clear lead back on a team and IF he received GL carries, then he could be a top 10 back, possibly top five due to his talent and natural ability.

However none of those IFs have ever come true and there is absolutely no reason to believe they ever will. If you see things changing any time in the near future you are just seeing what you want to see and not what the objective situation is telling you.

I can't argue about the lack of opportunity. I blame that more on Carolina's management than Stewart though. They had two franchise backs and kept both of them. You don't see that very often. I think it was a mistake. They should've let one of them walk and spent the money to strengthen other areas. Decisions like this are part of the reason why Carolina has been a losing team the last several years.

Have to comment on this: what, in your opinion, would have been the right move?

RB is a non-premium position. I think you can always find serviceable players there in the mid rounds of the NFL draft. With that being the case, I'd be reluctant to give a second contract to one veteran RB, much less two. Even if they're two of the best players on your roster, you really only need one elite back. Better to spend the money on a starter at a different position.

No I meant who should they have kept?

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No I meant who should they have kept?

I don't really think that's the point here. Perhaps there really wasn't anyone to keep in favor of DW or Stewart on the current roster, but the money could have been better allocated.

If DW's contract wasn't constricting the books, they could have done a helluva lot more in FA to rebuild the secondary. How about a Brent Grimes, or a better S than the current mess they roll out there? Instead, since they're strapped for cash, they bring in Drayton Florence, DJ Moore, and resign Captain Munnerlyn.

Poorly spent funds are poorly spent, regardless of if you can point immediately to someone else they should have gone to. The point is that they were stupid to spend so much on both guys -- the entire football world thought the DW contract was ridiculous, and it's handicapped them in FA the past several years.

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He missed two games in his first three NFL seasons. I think the idea that he can't stay healthy mainly comes from last season/this offseason. I think some players are more injury prone than others, but almost every starting RB in the NFL has had a season-ending injury at some point in his career. Comes with the territory. So maybe Stewart really is a guy who can't stay healthy, but I think that argument gets too much play and is a convenient rationalization owners use to justify their negative first instinct wrt to this player.

That's why I used the Crabtree comparison. The two players are pretty similar in terms of age/injury history. Yet most people hold out hope for Crabtree while dismissing Stewart's chances. When someone has been producing good FF stats, we tend to be more optimistic about their chances of overcoming adversity because we have a more positive overall impression of the player. When someone has been a bust in FF, we tend to be more pessimistic about their chances of overcoming adversity because we already have a negative impression of the player. Hence why Crabtree's injury is viewed as a mere setback whereas Stewart's injury is viewed as definitive proof that he's done.

I can't argue about the lack of opportunity. I blame that more on Carolina's management than Stewart though. They had two franchise backs and kept both of them. You don't see that very often. I think it was a mistake. They should've let one of them walk and spent the money to strengthen other areas. Decisions like this are part of the reason why Carolina has been a losing team the last several years.

The main thing I want to see is whether or not Stewart can get back to 100%. I think that's the most important variable. The "if" is a lot more important than the "when" to me. If he doesn't come back until week 6, but he looks good and plays well, that will be a good outcome. If he comes back in week 1, but looks slow and ineffective, that will be troubling.

This has been pointed out to you over and over, but games missed shouldn't be the only variable you look at when it comes to injuries.

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He missed two games in his first three NFL seasons. I think the idea that he can't stay healthy mainly comes from last season/this offseason. I think some players are more injury prone than others, but almost every starting RB in the NFL has had a season-ending injury at some point in his career. Comes with the territory. So maybe Stewart really is a guy who can't stay healthy, but I think that argument gets too much play and is a convenient rationalization owners use to justify their negative first instinct wrt to this player.

That's why I used the Crabtree comparison. The two players are pretty similar in terms of age/injury history. Yet most people hold out hope for Crabtree while dismissing Stewart's chances. When someone has been producing good FF stats, we tend to be more optimistic about their chances of overcoming adversity because we have a more positive overall impression of the player. When someone has been a bust in FF, we tend to be more pessimistic about their chances of overcoming adversity because we already have a negative impression of the player. Hence why Crabtree's injury is viewed as a mere setback whereas Stewart's injury is viewed as definitive proof that he's done.

I can't argue about the lack of opportunity. I blame that more on Carolina's management than Stewart though. They had two franchise backs and kept both of them. You don't see that very often. I think it was a mistake. They should've let one of them walk and spent the money to strengthen other areas. Decisions like this are part of the reason why Carolina has been a losing team the last several years.

The main thing I want to see is whether or not Stewart can get back to 100%. I think that's the most important variable. The "if" is a lot more important than the "when" to me. If he doesn't come back until week 6, but he looks good and plays well, that will be a good outcome. If he comes back in week 1, but looks slow and ineffective, that will be troubling.

This has been pointed out to you over and over, but games missed shouldn't be the only variable you look at when it comes to injuries.

Games missed seems like the best measure of durability. It's tough to say that a guy has massive durability problems when he's been healthy enough to play (and play well) for the overwhelming majority of his career. I'm not sure how helpful it is to point out all the times he was "dinged" or "almost" missed a game. Playing with pain and minor injuries is something that almost every NFL player has to deal with throughout his career. As long as you suit up and deliver on gameday, that's all that really matters.

Now maybe this recent injury really does represent the beginning of the end for Stewart. Maybe he has chronic ankle/foot problems that will hamper him forever. It's a possibility. It's also possible that he'll come back at 100% and play several more years at a high level. The overall sentiment about him is so negative that I don't think enough weight is being given to the latter outcome. People think of him as a bust, so they automatically lean towards the pessimistic reading of his current prospects instead of looking at the whole spectrum of possible outcomes.

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As FF players, we're prone to thinking that players who score FF points = good and players who don't score FF points = bad. Whoever was good yesterday = will be good tomorrow. Whoever was bad yesterday = will be bad tomorrow.

The problem with such a simplistic approach is that you're going to miss out on good players who are mired in adversity for reasons not entirely related to their talent level. ...I'm on the lookout for reclamation projects because it's a proven and reliable way to get good players for below their actual worth.

This is not true at all. You're arguing against a strawman that doesn't exist.

It's pretty cocky and simplistic to believe that you're the only one who looks for 'buy low' opportunities while everyone else only judges future value 100% based on past performance.

Trust me, you're not special just because you're "on the lookout for reclamation projects"...you're doing the same things that we all do.

Or maybe you need to leave the Yahoo public leagues and find some real competition if that's been your past experience.

I never said that I'm the only one who looks for buy low opportunities. However, I've been playing in dynasty leagues for 10+ years now and I've definitely noticed recurring mistakes in the way that the average owner values players. One of those mistakes is premature dismissal of/excessive pessimism towards disappointing players. This is especially true when the player in question entered the league with high expectations, but has been a disappointment. I've cited many examples. Thomas Jones. Cedric Benson. Marshawn Lynch. Larry Johnson. Reggie Bush. CJ Spiller. When the hard times hit, popular sentiment turned against those players. Not every single owner panicked, but a lot of them did. That created an exploitable situation for owners with a longer perspective who were open-minded enough to recognize the upside in these unfashionable players.

This is just one general principle. It won't necessarily apply to every single owner. So when I say that most owners are prone to overvaluing the immediate past and the immediate future, this doesn't mean that every owner is some kind of a clueless fool. Just that the tendency to overvalue immediate results is common and recurrent. If you start to recognize these general patterns and you're able to make good assessments, I think you can exploit them to your advantage. That's what good owners do. They try to recognize inefficiencies in the way the other owners in their league value players and they try to use those to their advantage. I never said that I'm the best at this or that I'm the only one who does it. It's definitely something that I try to do though, for better or worse.

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As FF players, we're prone to thinking that players who score FF points = good and players who don't score FF points = bad. Whoever was good yesterday = will be good tomorrow. Whoever was bad yesterday = will be bad tomorrow.

The problem with such a simplistic approach is that you're going to miss out on good players who are mired in adversity for reasons not entirely related to their talent level. ...I'm on the lookout for reclamation projects because it's a proven and reliable way to get good players for below their actual worth.

This is not true at all. You're arguing against a strawman that doesn't exist.

It's pretty cocky and simplistic to believe that you're the only one who looks for 'buy low' opportunities while everyone else only judges future value 100% based on past performance.

Trust me, you're not special just because you're "on the lookout for reclamation projects"...you're doing the same things that we all do.

Or maybe you need to leave the Yahoo public leagues and find some real competition if that's been your past experience.

I never said that I'm the only one who looks for buy low opportunities. However, I've been playing in dynasty leagues for 10+ years now and I've definitely noticed recurring mistakes in the way that the average owner values players. One of those mistakes is premature dismissal of/excessive pessimism towards disappointing players. This is especially true when the player in question entered the league with high expectations, but has been a disappointment. I've cited many examples. Thomas Jones. Cedric Benson. Marshawn Lynch. Larry Johnson. Reggie Bush. CJ Spiller. When the hard times hit, popular sentiment turned against those players. Not every single owner panicked, but a lot of them did. That created an exploitable situation for owners with a longer perspective who were open-minded enough to recognize the upside in these unfashionable players.

I responded to this previously, but you must've missed it.

Here's when these RBs broke out again:

Thomas Jones-Switched teams

Cedric Benson-Switched teams

Marshawn Lynch-Switched teams

Reggie Bush-Switched teams

Larry Johnson-3rd year with drafted team

CJ Spiller- 3rd year with drafted team

Jonathan Stewart- entering 6th year with drafted team

One of these doesn't look like the others

Edited by tdmills
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He missed two games in his first three NFL seasons. I think the idea that he can't stay healthy mainly comes from last season/this offseason. I think some players are more injury prone than others, but almost every starting RB in the NFL has had a season-ending injury at some point in his career. Comes with the territory. So maybe Stewart really is a guy who can't stay healthy, but I think that argument gets too much play and is a convenient rationalization owners use to justify their negative first instinct wrt to this player.

That's why I used the Crabtree comparison. The two players are pretty similar in terms of age/injury history. Yet most people hold out hope for Crabtree while dismissing Stewart's chances. When someone has been producing good FF stats, we tend to be more optimistic about their chances of overcoming adversity because we have a more positive overall impression of the player. When someone has been a bust in FF, we tend to be more pessimistic about their chances of overcoming adversity because we already have a negative impression of the player. Hence why Crabtree's injury is viewed as a mere setback whereas Stewart's injury is viewed as definitive proof that he's done.

I can't argue about the lack of opportunity. I blame that more on Carolina's management than Stewart though. They had two franchise backs and kept both of them. You don't see that very often. I think it was a mistake. They should've let one of them walk and spent the money to strengthen other areas. Decisions like this are part of the reason why Carolina has been a losing team the last several years.

The main thing I want to see is whether or not Stewart can get back to 100%. I think that's the most important variable. The "if" is a lot more important than the "when" to me. If he doesn't come back until week 6, but he looks good and plays well, that will be a good outcome. If he comes back in week 1, but looks slow and ineffective, that will be troubling.

This has been pointed out to you over and over, but games missed shouldn't be the only variable you look at when it comes to injuries.

Games missed seems like the best measure of durability. It's tough to say that a guy has massive durability problems when he's been healthy enough to play (and play well) for the overwhelming majority of his career. I'm not sure how helpful it is to point out all the times he was "dinged" or "almost" missed a game. Playing with pain and minor injuries is something that almost every NFL player has to deal with throughout his career. As long as you suit up and deliver on gameday, that's all that really matters.

Now maybe this recent injury really does represent the beginning of the end for Stewart. Maybe he has chronic ankle/foot problems that will hamper him forever. It's a possibility. It's also possible that he'll come back at 100% and play several more years at a high level. The overall sentiment about him is so negative that I don't think enough weight is being given to the latter outcome. People think of him as a bust, so they automatically lean towards the pessimistic reading of his current prospects instead of looking at the whole spectrum of possible outcomes.

We're talking fantasy football here, correct? I don't know of any leagues that get points for games played. When has he "suited up and delivered" for fantasy owners? He's been a bust for the overwhelming majority of his career, and injuries have played a big part of that IMO. These aren't the same "minor" injuries almost every NFL player has to deal with.

This isn't a fluke, this is an every single year issue, including college. I like the guy and I'm rooting for him, I do think he's very talented, but to try and act as if he's no more injury prone than anyone else is ridiculous.

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We're talking fantasy football here, correct? I don't know of any leagues that get points for games played. When has he "suited up and delivered" for fantasy owners? He's been a bust for the overwhelming majority of his career, and injuries have played a big part of that IMO. These aren't the same "minor" injuries almost every NFL player has to deal with.

This isn't a fluke, this is an every single year issue, including college. I like the guy and I'm rooting for him, I do think he's very talented, but to try and act as if he's no more injury prone than anyone else is ridiculous.

The reason he hasn't "suited up and delivered" for FF owners is mostly unrelated to his injuries. The lack of carries is the main culprit there and that owes more to DeAngelo's presence than Stewart's inability to stay on the field. He has been healthy for most of the games in his career. He hasn't been a productive FF player because the volume of work hasn't been there. Using his lack of production as proof that his injuries have held him back is misguided.

Through five years he's played in 71 out of a possible 80 games. That's 88.75%. I'm not going to do the math for every notable RB in the NFL, but I'd venture to guess that it's a pretty decent ratio. So while the "he can't stay healthy" line of thinking definitely applies to his 2012 season, it doesn't apply to his career to date. As I've said many times, I think many people are latching onto that narrative because it's a convenient and immediate explanation. That doesn't mean it's a particularly good one. He's recovering from injury. So were Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson last year. Didn't mean their careers were over.

My take on Stewart'ss NFL career is that he's a very good player whose production has been limited by the presence of another very good player at his position. Williams has killed Stewart's FF value, and vice versa. Durability might be a problem for him going forward, but it hasn't been a massive problem to date. Saying otherwise is putting too much emphasis on the immediate past and not enough on the bigger picture. He actually played in 62 out of 64 possible games in his first four years, so the idea that he'll never be able to stay healthy is pretty suspect. The 2012 injury definitely changes the equation and raises some questions about his fitness going forward, but this is not a player who has been a constant presence on the injury report throughout his NFL career.

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