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[DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low?


EBF

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Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart rushed 13 times for 41 yards in Sunday's Week 10 win at San Francisco.

Stewart shared the early down work with DeAngelo Williams for much of the game, but was asked to be the fourth-quarter clock-killer. He almost blew that chance when he fumbled as the Panthers were salting the game away. Luckily for him, Mike Tolbert alertly jumped on the ball. The Panthers staff does appear to favor J-Stew, but this is going to be a three-headed monster indefinitely. He'll just be a weak flex against the Patriots in Week 11.
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Since this is the Stewart dynasty thread, what are the thoughts on 2014? DeAngelo will be 31 and likely still around since he's looked decent so far this year and is only scheduled to make $2 million thanks to this year's restructure. Tolbert I think is around $2.3 million. Stewart's cap figure will be $5.5 million next year.

It feels like he's been around forever, but he's about a year younger than Charles and half a year older than Spiller.

In 2014, Stewart can pick up a $9 million option bonus, his base salary will be $1.5 million and his cap figure rises to $5.5 million.

In 2015, Stewart’s base salary will be $4.25 million and his cap figure increases to $8.55 million.
In 2016, Stewart has a $5 million base salary and a $9.8 million cap figure. In the final year of the deal, the base salary is $5.5 million and the cap figure drops a bit to $8.5 million.

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I've long been a believer in the talent, but I think his days of being a worthwhile fantasy investment are gone.

A.) Is he the same player he was from 2008 - 2011? I don't know, and don't think it's a given at this point. He definitely hasn't looked like the same "wow" RB the past two years. Obviously the sample size is too small to offer a definitive answer, even combining 2012 and 2013, but I'd rather proceed with caution until I see the old version on the field for a multi-game stretch at this point.

B.) The situation just sucks, and at this point I'm just not willing to bet that it will change. Might it? Sure. But I'll believe it when I see it. Two way RBBC I could deal with, but this is essentially a four way split with Cam, Tolbert, Williams, and Stewart. Even with Stewart out most of the year, Williams wasn't a real fantasy factor, so I'm just not seeing a ton of upside beyond a meh RB2 / flex for any individual RB there.

3.) All that said, I still wouldn't mind stashing the guy if the price was right. But it's not, and it probably never will be. Stewart's owners aren't moving him at "middle-aged RB2 / RB3 with injury concerns" prices. They're heavily invested in the guy, and in my leagues at least, seem to be thinking that holding and hoping for the best is better than moving on at a significant loss, even if they think it's pretty likely that he'll never fulfill his once great promise. As a multiple owner of Kenny Britt, I agree with them too. Even a tiny chance at a return to difference-making form is worth more than cashing out for peanuts with guys like this, even if it means going down with the ship...

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I have no idea why Carolina invests so much money in their running game when none of the backs are utilized fully. They could get similar production with less money and really improve the rest of the team.

Agree 100%. They have some talent in the backfield, but 1) it's way too crowded and 2) they can't just stick with one guy.

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I have no idea why Carolina invests so much money in their running game when none of the backs are utilized fully. They could get similar production with less money and really improve the rest of the team.

Agree 100%. They have some talent in the backfield, but 1) it's way too crowded and 2) they can't just stick with one guy.

In hindsight, it looks worse than it actually was at the time. They signed Tolbert and extended Williams before they had any idea what they had in Cam Newton. Still a misuse of cap dollars, but less egregious then as opposed to how it looks now with the offense built around a dynamic young stud QB.

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I'm only keeping him in the hopes Carolina releases him and he gets the chance to be featured elsewhere. Is this even a possibility? Based on the cap numbers, it looks like he would be their highest paid back and really isn't worth the investment to the team.

Does not look like a possibility. Cap hit of a release would be incredible.

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I'm only keeping him in the hopes Carolina releases him and he gets the chance to be featured elsewhere. Is this even a possibility? Based on the cap numbers, it looks like he would be their highest paid back and really isn't worth the investment to the team.

Does not look like a possibility. Cap hit of a release would be incredible.

That's a painful contract.

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I've long been a believer in the talent, but I think his days of being a worthwhile fantasy investment are gone.

A.) Is he the same player he was from 2008 - 2011? I don't know, and don't think it's a given at this point. He definitely hasn't looked like the same "wow" RB the past two years. Obviously the sample size is too small to offer a definitive answer, even combining 2012 and 2013, but I'd rather proceed with caution until I see the old version on the field for a multi-game stretch at this point.

As much abuse as EBF takes over Stewart, he is correct that at one time there wasn't a RB that had the size/speed combo possessed by Stewart. He was a rare talent, and showed how productive he could be when given the lion's share of the carries.

Like you, I just don't think he's that back anymore. I think the years and years of lower leg injuries have caught up to him and sapped him of the burst he once had. He looks very oridinary now.

Williams and Tolbert aren't going anywhere and neither is Stewart - Stewart has become more of a "take what you can get" player than a "buy low" imo. Like Shutout, I traded him away during the offseason, and it felt like a tremendous burden had been lifted - and if he does go on to accomplish some great things I will not feel cheated and will also say "good for him". I'm not expecting that to happen though.

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I've long been a believer in the talent, but I think his days of being a worthwhile fantasy investment are gone.

A.) Is he the same player he was from 2008 - 2011? I don't know, and don't think it's a given at this point. He definitely hasn't looked like the same "wow" RB the past two years. Obviously the sample size is too small to offer a definitive answer, even combining 2012 and 2013, but I'd rather proceed with caution until I see the old version on the field for a multi-game stretch at this point.

As much abuse as EBF takes over Stewart, he is correct that at one time there wasn't a RB that had the size/speed combo possessed by Stewart. He was a rare talent, and showed how productive he could be when given the lion's share of the carries.

Like you, I just don't think he's that back anymore. I think the years and years of lower leg injuries have caught up to him and sapped him of the burst he once had. He looks very oridinary now.

Williams and Tolbert aren't going anywhere and neither is Stewart - Stewart has become more of a "take what you can get" player than a "buy low" imo. Like Shutout, I traded him away during the offseason, and it felt like a tremendous burden had been lifted - and if he does go on to accomplish some great things I will not feel cheated and will also say "good for him". I'm not expecting that to happen though.

Based on what? His injury plagued 2012 year where he started the season with a high ankle sprain, went on the IR with an ankle injury, and then had surgery on both ankles? Or based on the 29 touches he's had since returning to football 3 weeks ago?

Tempering expectations is fully understandable (based on his bad situation) but not because he looks ordinary to you now. Eyeball tests on forums are generally worthless, but an eyeball test of Stewart based on 3 games of limited duty after a year off recovering from injuries is even sillier than normal eyeball tests.

If people are writing him off after 3 games this year then maybe the current owners are ready to give up (part 3 of CdL's post).

He's younger and has less mileage than Jamaal Charles. If he can be had, it is worth considering buying a lottery ticket. I am pretty sure DeAngelo and Tolbert will be around next year, but if Stewart is back to 80% of what he used to be then Carolina will be hard pressed not to give him the majority of the carries and backfield receptions.

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Based on what? His injury plagued 2012 year where he started the season with a high ankle sprain, went on the IR with an ankle injury, and then had surgery on both ankles? Or based on the 29 touches he's had since returning to football 3 weeks ago?

Tempering expectations is fully understandable (based on his bad situation) but not because he looks ordinary to you now. Eyeball tests on forums are generally worthless, but an eyeball test of Stewart based on 3 games of limited duty after a year off recovering from injuries is even sillier than normal eyeball tests.

If people are writing him off after 3 games this year then maybe the current owners are ready to give up (part 3 of CdL's post).

He's younger and has less mileage than Jamaal Charles. If he can be had, it is worth considering buying a lottery ticket. I am pretty sure DeAngelo and Tolbert will be around next year, but if Stewart is back to 80% of what he used to be then Carolina will be hard pressed not to give him the majority of the carries and backfield receptions.

That's mostly how I feel. The clock is ticking on D-Will's prime since he'll be 31 next season. At some point his skills have to start eroding. This situation is almost like a sick joke though, with not only Williams on the roster, but also Tolbert and Newton. You could see last night that there just weren't enough carries to go around. I've got Stewart ranked as a low end dynasty RB2, but I might need to bump him down to RB3. Basically a bye week guy with upside if the situation clears up.

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Man, you guys are gluttons for punishment. Even on a 7-3 Panthers team, a healthy Stewart still cannot produce, unless 26 carries for 94 yards for a dazzling YPC of 3.6 over three games excites you. I know, I know, "he'll be better when he gets more touches!" Sure. Keep telling yourselves that. I will say it for the 94th time: cut bait on Stewart and every other Carolina RB. It's a liberating feeling. :cool:

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I've long been a believer in the talent, but I think his days of being a worthwhile fantasy investment are gone.

A.) Is he the same player he was from 2008 - 2011? I don't know, and don't think it's a given at this point. He definitely hasn't looked like the same "wow" RB the past two years. Obviously the sample size is too small to offer a definitive answer, even combining 2012 and 2013, but I'd rather proceed with caution until I see the old version on the field for a multi-game stretch at this point.

As much abuse as EBF takes over Stewart, he is correct that at one time there wasn't a RB that had the size/speed combo possessed by Stewart. He was a rare talent, and showed how productive he could be when given the lion's share of the carries.

Like you, I just don't think he's that back anymore. I think the years and years of lower leg injuries have caught up to him and sapped him of the burst he once had. He looks very oridinary now.

Williams and Tolbert aren't going anywhere and neither is Stewart - Stewart has become more of a "take what you can get" player than a "buy low" imo. Like Shutout, I traded him away during the offseason, and it felt like a tremendous burden had been lifted - and if he does go on to accomplish some great things I will not feel cheated and will also say "good for him". I'm not expecting that to happen though.

Based on what? His injury plagued 2012 year where he started the season with a high ankle sprain, went on the IR with an ankle injury, and then had surgery on both ankles? Or based on the 29 touches he's had since returning to football 3 weeks ago?

Yes - what else should I base it on?

Since my premise was that the injuries have caught up to him, should I disregard the injuries when I make that assessment?

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Just seems rather pointless to use an eyeball test when the guy hasn't even had a preseason's amount of touches yet. I will agree that the injuries had caught up to him last year. That's why he went under the knife. To think you can determine whether the surgeries were effective after just his first 3 games back is kind of silly, no?

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Just seems rather pointless to use an eyeball test when the guy hasn't even had a preseason's amount of touches yet. I will agree that the injuries had caught up to him last year. That's why he went under the knife. To think you can determine whether the surgeries were effective after just his first 3 games back is kind of silly, no?

I was talking about last year and this year.

As far as this year, generally RBs with "fresh legs" at this time of year tend to actually look better than they are. He has not looked good. How many games does it take, if 3 isn't enough? After next week's game can I pass judgment?

This is a thread discussing Jonathan Stewart. I gave my opinion. I guess maybe its "silly", but there have been far more silly opinions given throughout this thread. Maybe you should go back a few pages and get some real good laughs.

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Man, you guys are gluttons for punishment. Even on a 7-3 Panthers team, a healthy Stewart still cannot produce, unless 26 carries for 94 yards for a dazzling YPC of 3.6 over three games excites you. I know, I know, "he'll be better when he gets more touches!" Sure. Keep telling yourselves that. I will say it for the 94th time: cut bait on Stewart and every other Carolina RB. It's a liberating feeling. :cool:

don't even try to reason with um man they're straight delusional, "but what if" is their whole story and the constant, "he has the talent to do it" blah blah blah, how long people how long can you keep doing this. never own a panther rb never and that means never my goodness do it for your sanity.

Edited by Peeps Inc.
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A couple of worries I have with Stewart, as someone that owns him.

I don't think he was quite as good even pre-injury as people thought he was. People go nuts over his production at the time, but ignore that he was on one of those rare monster running teams at the time. He never, at any point in his career, has stood out compared to his peers on his team. It's true that part of that is that DeAngelo Williams is pretty darn good himself, but even in the season where DeAngelo was out injured Mike Goodson pretty much went step for step with Stewart. This isn't, and never has been, a case like we saw in KC where a guy like Charles was totally outproducing his teammates. Still a good, maybe even great player, but I'm not convinced he was ever a top 3 talented back in the league.

Secondly, I don't see that guy anymore anyway. Dr Octopus has touched on it, but he just doesn't look nearly as explosive as he used to. He reminds me of Antonio Gates when he fell off. Physically top heavy and slow to get started. It doesn't seem like his coaches disagree as he's not losing touches to DeAngelo Williams in his prime anymore. He's losing touches to an over the hill DeAngelo Williams that is clearly two steps slower than he used to be and, of course, Mike Tolbert. If he was still some kind of uber special back there's no way he'd be losing touches to Tolbert. And it's not like Tolbert is just in there to pass block or play short yardage. Tolbert spent plenty of time running the ball last night on 1st and 10 from typical rushing formations.

I think it's possible that Stewart is out of shape because he's been staying off his legs, and a full offseason will do him wonders, but that's what we thought at the end of last season. His clock is ticking fast and the situation doesn't look like it's ever going to get better. Even if it does, his upside is a shell of what it once was based both on his own physical limitations compared to the way he used to look as well as the long-term outlook of the situation. At least before we had "DeAngelo is getting older and is a FA soon". However, Cam isn't going anywhere until after Stewart is retired and I'm not sure Tolbert will either.

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Just seems rather pointless to use an eyeball test when the guy hasn't even had a preseason's amount of touches yet. I will agree that the injuries had caught up to him last year. That's why he went under the knife. To think you can determine whether the surgeries were effective after just his first 3 games back is kind of silly, no?

I was talking about last year and this year.

As far as this year, generally RBs with "fresh legs" at this time of year tend to actually look better than they are. He has not looked good. How many games does it take, if 3 isn't enough? After next week's game can I pass judgment?

This is a thread discussing Jonathan Stewart. I gave my opinion. I guess maybe its "silly", but there have been far more silly opinions given throughout this thread. Maybe you should go back a few pages and get some real good laughs.

Yeah, using last year is even worse. He missed week 1 with a high ankle sprain IIRC and came back too quickly. Ended up going on the IR about 12 months ago. Why would you use an injury riddled year to determine his ability? Should we judge Roddy White going forward based on his performance this year? How about Andre Johnson's 2011 year?

I don't know what kind of sample size you prefer to see from a player, but I'd like to see at least 100 touches before I write off a guy after surgery as having had his injuries catch up to him. Because, like I already said, he opted for surgery because the injuries had caught up to him. Let's wait and see if his injuries were remedied or not.

Personally, I'm eying him as a 2014 redraft target. Seems like a great choice for an upside down draft. He'll be 28, about a year recovered from surgery, and on a strong defensive team. The presence of 31 year old Williams and fatty Tolbert are surely deterrents, but he'll probably be very cheap and is the kind of talent you hope for in an upside down draft.

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Just seems rather pointless to use an eyeball test when the guy hasn't even had a preseason's amount of touches yet. I will agree that the injuries had caught up to him last year. That's why he went under the knife. To think you can determine whether the surgeries were effective after just his first 3 games back is kind of silly, no?

I was talking about last year and this year.

As far as this year, generally RBs with "fresh legs" at this time of year tend to actually look better than they are. He has not looked good. How many games does it take, if 3 isn't enough? After next week's game can I pass judgment?

This is a thread discussing Jonathan Stewart. I gave my opinion. I guess maybe its "silly", but there have been far more silly opinions given throughout this thread. Maybe you should go back a few pages and get some real good laughs.

Yeah, using last year is even worse. He missed week 1 with a high ankle sprain IIRC and came back too quickly. Ended up going on the IR about 12 months ago. Why would you use an injury riddled year to determine his ability?

Just seems rather pointless to use an eyeball test when the guy hasn't even had a preseason's amount of touches yet. I will agree that the injuries had caught up to him last year. That's why he went under the knife. To think you can determine whether the surgeries were effective after just his first 3 games back is kind of silly, no?

I was talking about last year and this year.

As far as this year, generally RBs with "fresh legs" at this time of year tend to actually look better than they are. He has not looked good. How many games does it take, if 3 isn't enough? After next week's game can I pass judgment?

This is a thread discussing Jonathan Stewart. I gave my opinion. I guess maybe its "silly", but there have been far more silly opinions given throughout this thread. Maybe you should go back a few pages and get some real good laughs.

Yeah, using last year is even worse. He missed week 1 with a high ankle sprain IIRC and came back too quickly. Ended up going on the IR about 12 months ago. Why would you use an injury riddled year to determine his ability? Should we judge Roddy White going forward based on his performance this year? How about Andre Johnson's 2011 year?

I don't know what kind of sample size you prefer to see from a player, but I'd like to see at least 100 touches before I write off a guy after surgery as having had his injuries catch up to him. Because, like I already said, he opted for surgery because the injuries had caught up to him. Let's wait and see if his injuries were remedied or not.

Personally, I'm eying him as a 2014 redraft target. Seems like a great choice for an upside down draft. He'll be 28, about a year recovered from surgery, and on a strong defensive team. The presence of 31 year old Williams and fatty Tolbert are surely deterrents, but he'll probably be very cheap and is the kind of talent you hope for in an upside down draft.

Well, when I'm assessing how he's looked recently, I go by all the carries that I've seen recently. Apparently I should have closed my eyes and imagined what he should be looking like after multiple years of lower leg injuries and bilateral offseason ankle surgeries that forced him to miss more time than expected.

I guess I should also ignore the fact that the team is still giving meaningful carries to a 30 year old RB and a "fatty" over him?

I don't blame anyone that thinks he could be a good "buy low" this year or next year, but most players are "buy low" for a reason and more times than not the reason follows them after the purchase.

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I don't know what kind of sample size you prefer to see from a player, but I'd like to see at least 100 touches before I write off a guy after surgery as having had his injuries catch up to him.

..and by the way he's had 97 touches this season, so I guess after three more any assessments of how he's looked will be valid.

26 carries + 3 catches = 97 touches?

The argument in favor of Stew has always been pretty straightforward. IF he can get back to his old level and IF he can ever get a consistent workload, he would easily outproduce his price tag. Whether or not those things are likely is definitely questionable. I wouldn't really blame someone for taking the pessimistic side at this point, but I also don't think it requires any huge stretch of logic to have some optimism. Especially as his price tag keeps dropping.

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I don't know what kind of sample size you prefer to see from a player, but I'd like to see at least 100 touches before I write off a guy after surgery as having had his injuries catch up to him.

..and by the way he's had 97 touches this season, so I guess after three more any assessments of how he's looked will be valid.

26 carries + 3 catches = 97 touches?

The argument in favor of Stew has always been pretty straightforward. IF he can get back to his old level and IF he can ever get a consistent workload, he would easily outproduce his price tag. Whether or not those things are likely is definitely questionable. I wouldn't really blame someone for taking the pessimistic side at this point, but I also don't think it requires any huge stretch of logic to have some optimism. Especially as his price tag keeps dropping.

I added his yards instead of carries. My bad.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart (ankle) remained out of Panthers practice Thursday, but coach Ron Rivera is "not concerned," and expects J-Stew to return on Friday.

It sounds like the Panthers are just managing Stewart's rep after he notched 16 touches in Sunday's win. His status will be updated on Friday. With DeAngelo Williams (quad) appearing likely to return, J-Stew won't be on the FLEX radar against the Saints.
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Rotowiorld:

Jonathan Stewart left Sunday night's Week 14 game against the Saints with a knee injury.

Stewart limped off the field after a 16-yard screen pass in the third quarter and is listed as questionable to return. He had just two touches for 32 yards before exiting and is likely done for the night. DeAngelo Williams will pick up his vacated snaps, with Mike Tolbert remaining in a short-yardage role.
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Report: Jonathan Stewart's injury is serious

According to the Charlotte Observer, the knee injury Jonathan Stewart sustained on Sunday night is serious.

Stewart took a low hit from Saints CB Keenan Lewis at the end of a 16-yard catch and never returned. He's headed for a Monday MRI to determine the extent of the damage. If Stewart were to miss time, DeAngelo Williams would reemerge as the clear-cut feature back for Carolina. During the first seven games of the year (while Stewart was on PUP), Williams averaged 16.2 carries and 1.8 catches per game. The concern with using him as a potential plug-n-play flex is that he gets the Jets No. 2 run defense in Week 15.

Source: Charlotte Observer Dec 9 - 8:32 AM

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  • 1 month later...

Rotoworld:

The Panthers guaranteed Jonathan Stewart's $1.5 million base salary for 2014 when they reworked his contract in the 2013 offseason.

The base salary is only $1.5 million, however, and Stewart's $6.875 million option bonus doesn't appear to be guaranteed. $2.5 million of his $4.25 million salary in 2015 is additionally guaranteed. The bottom line for GM Dave Gettleman will be that Stewart is owed $8.375 million in 2014 salary and bonuses, and he isn't worth half that much at this stage of his career. He'll almost certainly have to accept a pay cut to stay in Carolina.
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Rotoworld:

Updating a previous item, Jonathan Stewart's base salary spikes to $8.285 million and becomes fully guaranteed if the Panthers decline his $6.875 million offseason option bonus.

These running back contracts signed off on by former GM Marty Hurney continue to haunt the Panthers' franchise, even as "new" GM Dave Gettleman enters year two. Stewart is going to be back with Carolina in 2014. Gettleman would surely love for Stewart to take a pay cut, but J-Stew has leverage and there would be little or nothing the Panthers could do in the event Stewart balked.
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  • 1 month later...

Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart tweaked his deal, as well. $1.5M base reduced to $785k. Remainder ($715k) was added to his $6.785M option bonus

So Stewart gets $7.5M signing bonus, prorated over 5 years. Renegotiation lowers 2014 cap number by $911,250

Edited by Steed
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Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart tweaked his deal, as well. $1.5M base reduced to $785k. Remainder ($715k) was added to his $6.785M option bonus

So Stewart gets $7.5M signing bonus, prorated over 5 years. Renegotiation lowers 2014 cap number by $911,250

They have to be close to $30M under the cap now but most of that has to go to Hardy.

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  • 2 months later...

Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart is doing yoga and stretching more in an effort to improve his durability.

Over the last two seasons, Stewart has missed 17 games and averaged just 3.65 YPC when while battling ankle and knee issues. He's still just 27 years old and expects to participate fully in late-May OTAs, so we're not throwing in the towel on such a talented natural runner just yet. But the presence of DeAngelo Williams and massive holes on Carolina's offensive line keep the ceiling capped.
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  • 3 weeks later...

@evansilva

Has been left for dead by most, but Jonathan Stewart in midst of his healthiest offseason in a long time. Still only 27 yrs old. D-Will 31.

Until people start trying to tackle him.

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I was googling DeAngelo Williams to see if that guy is planning on actually getting old any time soon, and I came across this funny nugget.

"I joked with people that my fantasy value went up after we got rid of our four receivers, but it’s the truth," Williams said. "I went from probably being drafted in the fifth and sixth round to being in the first round, me and Jonathan (Stewart) alike because we have no receivers." We found this more humorous than helpful, but it's a slow news day. Williams rushed 201 times for 843 yards (4.19 YPC) and three touchdowns last season. He turns 31 in two weeks.

I'd like to see the league where DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are 1st round picks.

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I was googling DeAngelo Williams to see if that guy is planning on actually getting old any time soon, and I came across this funny nugget.

"I joked with people that my fantasy value went up after we got rid of our four receivers, but it’s the truth," Williams said. "I went from probably being drafted in the fifth and sixth round to being in the first round, me and Jonathan (Stewart) alike because we have no receivers." We found this more humorous than helpful, but it's a slow news day. Williams rushed 201 times for 843 yards (4.19 YPC) and three touchdowns last season. He turns 31 in two weeks.

I'd like to see the league where DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are 1st round picks.

They wouldn't be a 1st round pick if you got both of them with it.

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Warm up the bus.

:drive:

Tol-dozier's diesel has be idling all off season. Given that the Panther's may carry 5 backs this year, you'd be better off throwing a dart at the NFL depth charts rather than wasting a spot on Stewart.

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