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Lamar Miller, 2016, Infinity and beyond


Evil G

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  • 4 weeks later...

Rotoworld:

Lamar Miller said he's up to 225 pounds.

Miller weighed in at 212 at the 2012 Combine and played last season at 218. Entering a contract year, Miller may be looking to add weight in order to handle a bigger workload. His numbers noticeably dipped after he crossed the 15-carry threshold in games last season. The Dolphins are expected to add another back to pair with Miller. He'll likely play close to 220 this season.

Source: Adam Beasley on Twitter
Apr 1 - 12:39 PM

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  • 3 weeks later...

From To Draft Tm Lg G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch%

Tatum Bell 2004 2006 2-41 DEN NFL 43 14 481 2342 4.87 13 54.5 66 47 299 6.36 0 7.0 71.2

Lamar Miller 2012 2014 4-97 MIA NFL 45 32 444 2058 4.64 11 45.7 95 70 490 7.00 1 10.9 73.7

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From 	To 	Draft 	Tm 	Lg 	G 	GS 	Att 	Yds 	Y/A 	TD 	Y/G 	Tgt 	Rec 	Yds 	Y/R 	TD 	Y/G 	Ctch%Tatum Bell 	2004 	2006 	2-41 	DEN 	NFL 	43 	14 	481 	2342 	4.87 	13 	54.5 	66 	47 	299 	6.36 	0 	7.0 	71.2Lamar Miller 	2012 	2014 	4-97 	MIA 	NFL 	45 	32 	444 	2058 	4.64 	11 	45.7 	95 	70 	490 	7.00 	1 	10.9 	73.7

Comparing Lamar to Tatum is way off. While Tatum benefitted from the Shanahan/zone blocking that took the league by surprise back when any back in Denver was great, Lamar is doing his today on an ok team with nothing special going.

Edited by Slider
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  • 1 month later...

Rotoworld:

ESPN Dolphins reporter James Walker does not expect Lamar Miller's usage to change this season.

Despite having zero talent behind him on the depth chart, the Dolphins have consistently limited Miller's workload. He has been given more than 20 carries only once in his three-year career, and he has seen more than 15 carries only eight times. With rookie Jay Ajayi now in town, it is unlikely Miller suddenly transforms into a 250-carry back.
Source: ESPN.com
May 23 - 10:32 AM
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The heat needs to be firmly on Philbin. it's criminal that he doesn't get Miller the ball 20+ times a game. Fortunately the articles are pouring in about it so maybe the ####### will read them. He certainly hasn't figured it out by himself.

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Just following the authors analysis.

Miller was third in the league amongst rushers in “Win Probability Added”. WPA measures the impact that the play has on the outcome of the game. This means, proportion-wise, plays that directly involve Miller increase the odds that the Dolphins will win the game. Only Demarco Murray and Bell had a higher WPA.

Looking at the list provided sorted by WPA also shows that Damien Williams was 7th overall in 2014 in WPA with .62 compared to Millers 3rd overall of .78

This suggests to me that Miami's rushing offense was very effective in Win Probability Added in 2014 because it had two RB finish in the top 10 of this metric. If by this measurement Miller is elite then I guess Damien Williams is close to elite too.

Miller led all running backs with over 100 rushes and 30 receptions in plays that would be considered successful and result in positive EPA. He was the only back in 2014 with a success rate over 50% among those rushers.

When I sort the list by success rate at AFA without the arbitrary cut off of 100 rushes and 30 receptions, I found that Damien Williams is 4th overall on this list with a 50.7% success rate, Miller is 6th overall with a 50.4% success rate.

The main thing I take away from this is that Miami's rushing offense was very effective last season. Either that or Damien Williams is a better player than I thought. Either way the Miami offense did not lose much effectiveness by playing Williams compared to Miller by these measurements.

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Is this guy the next Rudi Johnson or Frank Gore? A guy that puts up top 12 seasons year after year, but always seems to be under valued. I am just playing the other side of the fence.

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Is this guy the next Rudi Johnson or Frank Gore? A guy that puts up top 12 seasons year after year, but always seems to be under valued. I am just playing the other side of the fence.

No respect.
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Stud. Starting weekly with confidence.

He gets the tough yards without taking punishment.

Nice situational decision-making and execution in the play that starts at 1:08. The first priority is getting out of bounds, but he gets whatever yards are possible without putting his first priority at risk. I like it.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Pro Football Focus @PFF 4m4 minutes ago

Lamar Miller was the best 3rd and 1 back in 2014, his success rate was 82%. (10+ attempts)

Yes, so lets have him on a snap count, bring in a 2nd string hack and punt instead. MIA coaching staff is full of geniuses.

You know, I said this to my buddy 3 years ago, and this preseason it looks to be more of the same.

(he is a die hard Dolphins fan, through thick and thin)

I told him "It seems as though Miami is just content now, year after year, to try and sign and field a bunch of mediocre talent".

Its like they just want to dole out money in a bunch of directions, acquiring and putting on the field a bunch of so-so talent.

Then every time they get someone in a good position, and he seems to be doing well, they "put him on a count", or they just don't really cut them loose. Or worse yet, they get rid of him.

Letting Charles Clay go, was not a brilliant move in my opinion. I know the guy was hoping for a huge payday, which he eventually got, but Clay was familiar with the system and did a good job considering what was around him.

The continuous signing of Brian Hartline (up until this year), last year getting Knowshon Moreno, this year getting Greg Jennings....etc. etc. the list goes on.

(I will never understand the Greg Jennings signing, especially after they got Stills, and ALSO Parker in the draft)

I know the draft was later, but are you telling me they weren't intending on signing a WR?

Lamar Miller was pretty good last year, when given the chance.

I don't know how Ajayai will work out, but I see no reason not to let Miller run hard and often again this season, and see what develops.

I do think the Suh signing may have been a step in the right direction though. Who knows, are they trying to turn the organization around?

Personally, I like underdogs but some of their moves in the last number of years look right on par with Cleveland.

TZM

Edited by TZMarkie
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Pro Football Focus @PFF 4m4 minutes ago

Lamar Miller was the best 3rd and 1 back in 2014, his success rate was 82%. (10+ attempts)

This is exactly the lazy analysis that I've come to expect from Pro Football Focus. No context at all. How many attempts? Sample size is important. And how did this compare to the other running backs?

So what counts as a succesfull run? Here's their definition:

  • "In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
  • If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
  • If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%."

In this case, since it is third down, a successfull play would be a first down. So success rate would be first down percentage. The lowest number that can give an 82% figure would be 17 attempts. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that that 82% comes from success on 14 of 17 attempts, which is very good even if it statistically is insignificant. I don't subscribe to Pro Football Focus, so I cannot interpret exactly how they came up with that number, but I did check the splits at profootballreference.com, and they have a similar but slightly different statistic: performance on 3rd/4th & short. And they have Lamar Miller with a 12 for 17 (71%) first down percentage in those situations, so one of the two is incorrect. Miller was also a passing target 4 times on 3rd/4th down and short and on only one of these did he catch the ball. Thus if we add passes to the equation, Miller's run and pass success rate last year would be 62%. For his career, Miller has a 60% 1st down conversion rate on on 3rd/4th & short and is 2 for 6 for 22 yards on passes. Thus, including passes, Miller's 1st down conversion rate on 3rd/4th and short is 55%. These are based off of a small sample size, but these percentages are far from elite.

Here are the career 1st down conversion running rates on 3rd/4th & short for other prominent running backs:

Le'Veon Bell - 77%

DeMarco Murray - 72%

LeSean McCoy - 73%

Marshawn Lynch - 58%, 17 of 20 for an 85% success rate last year

Matt Forte - 58%

Adrian Peterson - 71%

Jamaal Charles - 67%

Arian Foster - 66%

Frank Gore - 56%

Joique Bell - 81% (21 for 26)

Trent Richardson - 63%

Tatum Bell - 50%

None of this indicates that Miller is a bad running back. That 60% success rate (only 15 of 25) places him ahead of some very good running backs. It's just not very meaningful.

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Pro Football Focus @PFF 4m4 minutes ago

Lamar Miller was the best 3rd and 1 back in 2014, his success rate was 82%. (10+ attempts)

Yes, so lets have him on a snap count, bring in a 2nd string hack and punt instead. MIA coaching staff is full of geniuses.

You know, I said this to my buddy 3 years ago, and this preseason it looks to be more of the same.

(he is a die hard Dolphins fan, through thick and thin)

I told him "It seems as though Miami is just content now, year after year, to try and sign and field a bunch of mediocre talent".

Its like they just want to dole out money in a bunch of directions, acquiring and putting on the field a bunch of so-so talent.

Then every time they get someone in a good position, and he seems to be doing well, they "put him on a count", or they just don't really cut them loose. Or worse yet, they get rid of him.

Letting Charles Clay go, was not a brilliant move in my opinion. I know the guy was hoping for a huge payday, which he eventually got, but Clay was familiar with the system and did a good job considering what was around him.

The continuous signing of Brian Hartline (up until this year), last year getting Knowshon Moreno, this year getting Greg Jennings....etc. etc. the list goes on.

(I will never understand the Greg Jennings signing, especially after they got Stills, and ALSO Parker in the draft)

I know the draft was later, but are you telling me they weren't intending on signing a WR?

Lamar Miller was pretty good last year, when given the chance.

I don't know how Ajayai will work out, but I see no reason not to let Miller run hard and often again this season, and see what develops.

I do think the Suh signing may have been a step in the right direction though. Who knows, are they trying to turn the organization around?

Personally, I like underdogs but some of their moves in the last number of years look right on par with Cleveland.

TZM

I've found the Dolphins to be interesting from a fantasy perspective for the past few years as they have potential to produce several undervalued FF players ever year and seem to do so, although never producing anyone elite. So I've kind of followed them closely. They did a good job getting the most out of Reggie Bush. What they're doing with Lamar Miller doesn't seem that odd to me. Knowshon looked pretty solid last year. I think Damien Williams could be a better RB than Miller. Rolling the dice on a 5th round RB isn't crazy. That stuff all makes sense. If I was a Miller owner, I'd be pretty annoyed, but luckily I'm not.

I thought the Greg Jennings signing made sense. Stills and Jennings on the outside with the slow and small Landry playing the slot. I didn't understand the Parker draft pick, but I'm guessing it was a BPA kind of thing or maybe they plan to let Jennings go after this year - I know rookie WRs have produced recently, but grooming them for a year is the prudent way to go rather than banking on them producing in week 1. Regardless, things look good for them this year. Jennings isn't actually old yet for a WR so he should have a good season left in the tank. I don't think you can draft any Miami WR with confidence due to all the mouths to feed, but if you get one not named Landry that somehow gets 120 targets, you'll do very well for yourself. And if Tannehill runs a little bit more, he'll be a very good pick.

Letting Clay go made sense. He's not an elite TE and they apparently/hopefully knew that when they went out looking for a replacement. They didn't let him go until they signed Jordan Cameron, who is a better receiving TE, although he carries an obvious injury risk. I guess they are comfortable with Dion Sims who was a serviceable replacement player. Plus, you say Clay was familiar with the system, but the system was only in place for one year. Maybe Lazor thought Cameron was a better fit for what he was trying to do. So they get him for 2/$15M while Clay signs 5/$38M.

So I disagree that they are just randomly throwing money around. They aren't the best run organization, but they aren't the worst. Keeping Philbin around for so damn long was terrible. And I wouldn't have paid Suh that much money, but I guess time will tell if that signing pays off.

This year I think Miller is an interesting FF player. Going around RB15 he sure appears to be quite a good value after finishing 9th last year. I'd definitely handcuff him with Williams if he's able to hold off Ajayi for the #2 spot in camp.

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I think Damien Williams could be a better RB than Miller. Rolling the dice on a 5th round RB isn't crazy. That stuff all makes sense. If I was a Miller owner, I'd be pretty annoyed, but luckily I'm not.

This year I think Miller is an interesting FF player. Going around RB15 he sure appears to be quite a good value after finishing 9th last year. I'd definitely handcuff him with Williams if he's able to hold off Ajayi for the #2 spot in camp.

This is very interesting, as I haven't heard anyone talking about Williams this year. Obviously you're high on him, but what do you think are his realistic chances of being the #2? I feel like he's approaching afterthought status with Ajayi in the fold.

Edited by tangfoot
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Pro Football Focus @PFF 4m4 minutes ago

Lamar Miller was the best 3rd and 1 back in 2014, his success rate was 82%. (10+ attempts)

This is exactly the lazy analysis that I've come to expect from Pro Football Focus. No context at all. How many attempts? Sample size is important. And how did this compare to the other running backs?

So what counts as a succesfull run? Here's their definition:

  • "In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
  • If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
  • If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%."

In this case, since it is third down, a successfull play would be a first down. So success rate would be first down percentage. The lowest number that can give an 82% figure would be 17 attempts. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that that 82% comes from success on 14 of 17 attempts, which is very good even if it statistically is insignificant. I don't subscribe to Pro Football Focus, so I cannot interpret exactly how they came up with that number, but I did check the splits at profootballreference.com, and they have a similar but slightly different statistic: performance on 3rd/4th & short. And they have Lamar Miller with a 12 for 17 (71%) first down percentage in those situations, so one of the two is incorrect. Miller was also a passing target 4 times on 3rd/4th down and short and on only one of these did he catch the ball. Thus if we add passes to the equation, Miller's run and pass success rate last year would be 62%. For his career, Miller has a 60% 1st down conversion rate on on 3rd/4th & short and is 2 for 6 for 22 yards on passes. Thus, including passes, Miller's 1st down conversion rate on 3rd/4th and short is 55%. These are based off of a small sample size, but these percentages are far from elite.

Here are the career 1st down conversion running rates on 3rd/4th & short for other prominent running backs:

Le'Veon Bell - 77%

DeMarco Murray - 72%

LeSean McCoy - 73%

Marshawn Lynch - 58%, 17 of 20 for an 85% success rate last year

Matt Forte - 58%

Adrian Peterson - 71%

Jamaal Charles - 67%

Arian Foster - 66%

Frank Gore - 56%

Joique Bell - 81% (21 for 26)

Trent Richardson - 63%

Tatum Bell - 50%

None of this indicates that Miller is a bad running back. That 60% success rate (only 15 of 25) places him ahead of some very good running backs. It's just not very meaningful.

You may not have access to that info, but you made some assumptions based on that % and unfortunately it's just wrong. If you have a subscription here, you can pull the play-by-play for Miller and see all the 3rd and 1 situations. Here they are.

1 12:27 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 6 rushed for 2 yards (first down)

2 13:51 7 - 10 3rd-and-1 opp 38 rushed for 1 yards (first down)

2 0:12 0 - 9 3rd-and-1 own 35 rushed for 6 yards (first down)

4 6:16 24 - 14 3rd-and-1 own 43 rushed for 6 yards (first down)

2 2:33 7 - 3 3rd-and-1 own 45 rushed for 6 yards (first down)

3 3:06 17 - 6 3rd-and-1 opp 33 rushed for 30 yards (first down)

1 10:23 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 28 rushed for 0 yards

2 10:34 0 - 14 3rd-and-1 own 17 rushed for 2 yards (first down)

4 14:59 14 - 17 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN

1 6:42 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 18 rushed for -1 yards

2 12:17 3 - 7 3rd-and-1 opp 12 rushed for 10 yards (first down)

Out of 11 attempts, he converted on 9 of them.

9 / 11 = 81.8%, or 82%.

Apparently that was highest in the NFL.

Looking at 3rd and 4th downs as you did is helpful and is another metric, but for the metric that they specifically described, there was wrong about it. I'm sure they have the #'s for other RBs as well. It wouldn't be that hard to pick the RBs you listed there and look at their play logs and see what their %'s were as well, but I would assume that they are correct that Miller was highest in the league in that specific metric.

Edited by gianmarco
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Very late third right now accord to this: http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=standard&year=2015&teams=12&view=graph&pos=rb

I can't vouch for the accuracy, but thanks to overreaction to Ajay, Miller represents pretty good value at that price

Current MFL ADP has him at 28 overall, an early 3rd, but I've often seen him as early as 2.11 or 2.12.

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I think Damien Williams could be a better RB than Miller. Rolling the dice on a 5th round RB isn't crazy. That stuff all makes sense. If I was a Miller owner, I'd be pretty annoyed, but luckily I'm not.

This year I think Miller is an interesting FF player. Going around RB15 he sure appears to be quite a good value after finishing 9th last year. I'd definitely handcuff him with Williams if he's able to hold off Ajayi for the #2 spot in camp.

This is very interesting, as I haven't heard anyone talking about Williams this year. Obviously you're high on him, but what do you think are his realistic chances of being the #2? I feel like he's approaching afterthought status with Ajayi in the fold.

I've posted a few comments on him and am holding him in some deeper dynasty leagues. I'm a Phins homer and was impressed with Williams last year, particularly as a receiver. As a runner his YPC was low, but in my memory that wasn't all on him and I think he was used a bit in short yardage situations. I also posted in the Adjayi thread a while back that I don't think it's a given that he beats out Williams as the primary backup for 2015, but I'm in the vast minority on that one.

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  • 4 weeks later...

UM alum here, Dolphin fan, I loved Miller when he was at UM and have enjoyed watching him progress. I don't view him as a complete back. He disappears in games, now whether that is due to coaching is up for debate but people who draft him get very frustrated in games when he isn't on the field or getting many touches.

That could change but in his last 31 starts over the last 2 seasons(pretty good from inj standpoint) he is avg right about 12-13 carries per game. And when you look at the game logs http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MillLa01/gamelog// you see he is very consistent. The Phins don't view him as a guy who will close games out for them and they want to have that in their arsenal. Enter the Ajayi who despite an injury riddled past is going to be given a good shot to carry the ball somewhere in the range of what Miller is currently getting as the RB2. I don't see more touches by Miller but I also don't see him losing touches.

People will say that Ajayi is likely to get hurt leaving Miller alone...well he kind of had that last season when Moreno went down who btw looked better than Miller and Miami was eager to have him pound the ball in the 2nd half, go back and watch early film last year before the injury. I think folks need to be realistic about the amount of touches Miller will get and how many subpar games to boot. I have seen him go in as early as the 2nd round, that seems awful high IMHO.

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Not sure Miller is a 20+ touch type of guy.

And if Ajayi is any good, he will eat into that workload.

Miami gave touches to Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas last year because it knows Miller is not a workhorse.

I wouldn't say this staff is full of geniuses. They just resigned that Freeman turd.

At 5-10, 224 he easily fits the mold of a 20+ RB. They are just too stupid to figure that out.

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Not sure Miller is a 20+ touch type of guy.

And if Ajayi is any good, he will eat into that workload.

Miami gave touches to Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas last year because it knows Miller is not a workhorse.

I wouldn't say this staff is full of geniuses. They just resigned that Freeman turd.

At 5-10, 224 he easily fits the mold of a 20+ RB. They are just too stupid to figure that out.

So now there have been two coaching staffs in Miami who don't view him as a workhorse.

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Not sure Miller is a 20+ touch type of guy.

And if Ajayi is any good, he will eat into that workload.

Miami gave touches to Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas last year because it knows Miller is not a workhorse.

I wouldn't say this staff is full of geniuses. They just resigned that Freeman turd.

At 5-10, 224 he easily fits the mold of a 20+ RB. They are just too stupid to figure that out.

We will have to see if 224 is a good playing weight for him. Players that add weight sometimes lose some quickness or burst.

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It seems silly to me that everyone is piling on Miller's workload, where there is nothing concrete coming from anywhere on it and it's all just speculation at this point. If it remains the same, he's shown he can put up low end RB1 numbers. And I for one expect his usage to rise at least slightly. In year two of Lazor's offense, the pace and total snaps should increase, and I'd expect more running plays in total. Miami was bottom 10 in rushing attempts last year, and middle of the pack in total plays. Meanwhile Miller's going in to his first year as the uncontested starter, coming off a great performance in 2014, entering a contract year, and the both the passing game and defense in Miami should be improved. I think both total offensive snaps and rushing attempts go up for Miami this year. Everyone points to Ajayi as a huge knock on Miller's value, but we haven't seen anything from him yet nor do we know what sort of role he'll have.

Here were Miami's 2014 rushing stats (sorry for the terrible formatting):

att yds ypc TD

Lamar Miller 216 1,099 5.1 8

Ryan Tannehill 56 311 5.6 1

Daniel Thomas 44 168 3.8 2

Knowshon Moreno 31 148 4.8 1

Damien Williams 36 122 3.4 0

Mike Wallace 4 16 4 0

LaMichael James 3 9 3 0

Rishard Matthews 1 3 3 0

Orleans Darkwa 4 2 0.5 0

Matt Moore 2 -2 -1 0

Jarvis Landry 2 -4 -2 0

399 1872 12

If total rushing plays increased to a modest 445 (which would have only been 12th most in the NFL last year), things could be divided something like this:

Lamar Miller 230 1,127 4.9 8

Ryan Tannehill 55 302 5.5 1

Jay Ajayi 110 462 4.2 2

Damien Williams 35 161 4.6 1

Other RBs 10 35 3.5 0

WRs 5 15 5 0

445 2102 12

In this last projection, to keep things modest, I dropped efficiency numbers for the top four rushers (while they could just as easily increase) and kept TDs the same (ditto). This obviously hinges on projecting Ajayi for just 110 carries, much less than I suppose many think he'll total, but there just doesn't seem to be much evidence for such an outcome. To me it looks like a case of 'rookie fever', hyping up Ajayi. With Miller's ADP at somewhere between RB15-18 in the mid 3rd, Miller is the kind of player that I'll gamble on, as if he turns out to be a low end RB1 (or better if the O makes big strides) that I paid a middling RB2 price for, that's a big win. Anyway, my two cents...

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