does anyone know about michael hill - rb from western missouri (1 Viewer)

Looking to know more about him. thinking he could be a surprise in round 2.......

5'10 205lb

4.6 40

37.5 vert

311/2168/16 in 2012 Div II (14 games)

12/148/3 in Raycom All-Star game

Is Danny Woodhead the only Division II running back in the NFL right now?

I work with a guy whose real name is Michael Hill and he hasn't even heard of Michael Hill...I think you may be reaching deep here.

Shutout said:

I work with a guy whose real name is Michael Hill and he hasn't even heard of Michael Hill...I think you may be reaching deep here.

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He's on the radar for anyone in deep leagues. Just like there's been some Treavor Scales talk around here lately...and he played for Harvard.

a_rackowski said:

Looking to know more about him. thinking he could be a surprise in round 2.......

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Joique Bell was also Div-II.Out of the FCS/D2 RBs, I like Hill (and Rayon Simmons) better than Miguel Maysonet.Hill reminds me a lot of Chris Polk/Ryan Mathews.

Shutout said:

I work with a guy whose real name is Michael Hill and he hasn't even heard of Michael Hill...I think you may be reaching deep here.

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I'm from Missouri and I had no idea there's a school named Western Missouri.

ConnSKINS26 said:

Shutout said:

I work with a guy whose real name is Michael Hill and he hasn't even heard of Michael Hill...I think you may be reaching deep here.

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He's on the radar for anyone in deep leagues. Just like there's been some Treavor Scales talk around here lately...and he played for Harvard.

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I really posted that in jest and while I 'm sure there ARE hidden lumps of coal out there that might be diamonds in the future, the real message in this one is that's a pretty far reach to be digging at where energy could be better spent elsewhere.

In this particular draft, there is SO much uncertainty even at the top that IMO your energy would be better placed trying to distinguish the Stacys from the Ellington and the Wheatons from the Allens much more than trying to dig up a tater that isn't generating any sprouts anywhere. I know everyone wants to find the next Foster or Colston but you have to remember that even with those guys, those weren't guys that a concentrated consensus of people were talking about that were deep in the shadows of the lists; those were guys who people went and looked up after they were given a role in the league.

Shutout said:

ConnSKINS26 said:

Shutout said:

I work with a guy whose real name is Michael Hill and he hasn't even heard of Michael Hill...I think you may be reaching deep here.

Click to expand...

He's on the radar for anyone in deep leagues. Just like there's been some Treavor Scales talk around here lately...and he played for Harvard.

Click to expand...

I really posted that in jest and while I 'm sure there ARE hidden lumps of coal out there that might be diamonds in the future, the real message in this one is that's a pretty far reach to be digging at where energy could be better spent elsewhere. In this particular draft, there is SO much uncertainty even at the top that IMO your energy would be better placed trying to distinguish the Stacys from the Ellington and the Wheatons from the Allens much more than trying to dig up a tater that isn't generating any sprouts anywhere. I know everyone wants to find the next Foster or Colston but you have to remember that even with those guys, those weren't guys that a concentrated consensus of people were talking about that were deep in the shadows of the lists; those were guys who people went and looked up after they were given a role in the league.

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I think you are wrong about hill. i aldo think he is much better than ellingtons and wheatens and stacys and will be DRAFTED before them. i think we SHOULD be talking about him in 12 team leagues

a_rackowski said:

Shutout said:

ConnSKINS26 said:

Shutout said:

I work with a guy whose real name is Michael Hill and he hasn't even heard of Michael Hill...I think you may be reaching deep here.

Click to expand...

He's on the radar for anyone in deep leagues. Just like there's been some Treavor Scales talk around here lately...and he played for Harvard.

Click to expand...

I really posted that in jest and while I 'm sure there ARE hidden lumps of coal out there that might be diamonds in the future, the real message in this one is that's a pretty far reach to be digging at where energy could be better spent elsewhere. In this particular draft, there is SO much uncertainty even at the top that IMO your energy would be better placed trying to distinguish the Stacys from the Ellington and the Wheatons from the Allens much more than trying to dig up a tater that isn't generating any sprouts anywhere. I know everyone wants to find the next Foster or Colston but you have to remember that even with those guys, those weren't guys that a concentrated consensus of people were talking about that were deep in the shadows of the lists; those were guys who people went and looked up after they were given a role in the league.

Click to expand...

I think you are wrong about hill. i aldo think he is much better than ellingtons and wheatens and stacys and will be DRAFTED before them. i think we SHOULD be talking about him in 12 team leagues

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I guess we will see but, generally speaking, when a guy gets completely overlooked all the way up to the draft, there is a reason for it. At this time of the process almost anyone who has generated a buzz in some scout's mind has an article somewhere. Again, you may be right and if you are, that will be quite a feather in your cap. I just don't think you will be.

Either way, some of us play in 32-team leagues and like getting information on anyone.

I think looking for guys like this is probably worth the time. Here's why:

There is a difference between what a fantasy team is looking for in a sleeper and what an NFL team might be looking for in the late rounds of a draft. NFL teams need role players. They can get decent value out of a guy in the late rounds if he does good special teams work and is a solid camp/backup/COP type guy. They look at D1 guys who they KNOW aren't ever going to be top-shelf O/D starters and are sometimes OK with that.

But to us, those guys don't really buy you anything. You are really trying to focus on guys who DO have a shot at being a starter. You are better off with a guy who has a 98% chance of being cut by his NFL team and a 2% chance of being an eventual starter than you are with a guy who has only a 30% chance of being cut but a 1% chance of being a starter. The first guy might provide more value to an NFL team and be drafted slightly higher than the second guy, but I'd rather have that 2nd guy.

PlasmaDogPlasma said:

Either way, some of us play in 32-team leagues and like getting information on anyone.

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Why "anyone"? Wouldn't you want to limit the informaiton you are deciding on to reasonable prospects? I mean, Someone could give you literally 1000 names of Wrs from various College programs. All that does is waste your time. Regardless of the league size, the idea is to roster players that have impact, not just any warm body. There is nothing worse than wasting roster spots on a guy who never does anything.

Holy Schneikes said:

I think looking for guys like this is probably worth the time. Here's why:

There is a difference between what a fantasy team is looking for in a sleeper and what an NFL team might be looking for in the late rounds of a draft. NFL teams need role players. They can get decent value out of a guy in the late rounds if he does good special teams work and is a solid camp/backup/COP type guy. They look at D1 guys who they KNOW aren't ever going to be top-shelf O/D starters and are sometimes OK with that.

But to us, those guys don't really buy you anything. You are really trying to focus on guys who DO have a shot at being a starter. You are better off with a guy who has a 98% chance of being cut by his NFL team and a 2% chance of being an eventual starter than you are with a guy who has only a 30% chance of being cut but a 1% chance of being a starter. The first guy might provide more value to an NFL team and be drafted slightly higher than the second guy, but I'd rather have that 2nd guy.

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The issue in all that though is understanding what happens in real life to these late round selections. The VAST majority of players taken in late rounds aren't even in the league in a couple of years.

Take 2010. Just three years ago:

-The percentage of players taken in Rounds 4-7 that are still in the NFL is 24-31%.

-The vast majority of those that are still on teams and playing are defensive players.

-The number of players taken in Rounds 4-7 who are still on rosters is 2 and those guys are Jonathan Dwyer and Joe Mcknight, neither of which are exactly leading anyone to fantasy titles.

-Historically, the number of players selected in rounds 4-7 who are retained on the teams that draft them following their initial contract is 28%.

So in real life, yes, there are always stories of guys who make it and stories of guys who come from nowhere to have significant impact but these guys are SO far and few between that you really have to weigh whether it is worth your time to spend the time researching these guys AND burning a roster spot for them AND (in most cases) waiting for that perfect storm set of events to break their way so that they can be relevant.

So, just three years after a draft, we have almost none of these players still in the league, only 2 Rbs, and we know that historically there is a far greater chance that the player will not be on the team that drafted them should they still be in the league, which means there is a much larger chance than not that the team that used the resource to draft them did not think enough to keep them and that they are likely filling a ST or depth position for a new team.

The best example I can think of that suggests that you just shouldn't put the energy into fighting the historic trend on this is Bernard Scott. We all know that talent opens many doors in the NFL. This guy had it in spades. In a two year span he rushed fro over 4300 yards and scored 73 TDs. That is not a typo; AVERAGED 2000 yards per year and put up 73 freaking TDs. He ran a 4.4, he was an ideal RB size. His negatives were he played in D-II and he had character baggage. Well, we all know that talent can make bad character concerns check their baggage at the door; if you can help a team, teams will overlook A LOT. Well, Scott gets drafted in the 6th round. IF ever there was a case to be made about a guy who was being overlooked for one reason or another but could be a real gem, it was this guy. But regardless of whether you want to say he was cursed by the Bengals and their way of using him or whatever else, the facts are he has been almost useless in fantasy and as a free agent this year, nobody wanted him, not even as a steady backup vet. Not even the Raiders, who would have been ideal for him.

We sit in these forums and play talent scout in our spare time and like to say we watch these guys and we know something.

But meanwhile, there are REAL people with REAL jobs that are making their livelihoods by scouting these guys. And there are LOTS of them.. And while, yes, people overlook players sometimes, it doesn't happen to occur enough to justify digging through every single player every year with a RB designation next to their name. So, that 1-2% chance of being a meaningful player is actually closer to .05% or something. I mean, in the last 15 years, how many players out of the thousands each and every year have turned out to be Colston or Foster or Terrell Davis or Tom Brady? It very very few and far between.

RBs in general are overdrafted. The guys getting drafted earlier get more opportunity to justify their draft slot. If someone like Shonn Greene came from FCS/D2, he'd have a shorter leash.

Bernard Scott is just one example of a guy who didn't have it on the field.

Isaac Redman, Joique Bell, Daryl Richardson, Chris Ivory are D2 guys who have worked out. Though, Abilene Christian moved up to FCS for 2013. I know, Ivory started his college career at Washington State. And Fred Jackson was D3.

I prefer to focus on each player individually. Michael Hill probably isn't any less talented than someone like Montee Ball. You can say Hill isn't talented based on what you've seen or read, but don't based it on a generality.