Good luck starting Hill. Gus has done very well against the Steelers the past two seasons. Even against a stout D, Gus is a must start
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2024 Outlook for Ravens RBs - Does the arrival of King Henry signal the end of the perpetual RBBC ? (2 Viewers)
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dcgangstas
Footballguy
We just can't have nice things, can we?
Just when it appeared that John Harbaugh woke up and turned up his rookie RB loose to be a bellcow RB.
rockaction
Footballguy
I would imagine it’s do or die time for a lot of teams this week and considering what A Gibson did to Dallas on Thanksgiving Dobbins is going to be a very popular flex consideration. Add to this Dobbins got nearly all the work previously in week 11 with a healthy Ingram and Edwards standing on the sideline.Any guess at this is begging for
rockaction
Footballguy
Okay, you win. I will say that Dobbins is the most talented back they have right now, but is brutal in pass pro which, as much as fantasy guys hate it, will keep you off the field and hurt one's PPR volume from the two-three inevitable checkdowns per game that come from pressure.
And I wasn't laughing at your question from a football or fantasy perspective. I was laughing about the impossibility of speculation. Sorry if that came across wrong. I think it's absolutely futile to try and guess. The OC has said himself all year that they'll go with whatever the game plan and situation bring. They have four guys that can carry the ball. We saw both Edwards and Hill effective in fits and starts today. If pressed, I'd guess Ingram gets the start, Dobbins is your feature, Edwards your battering ram/spell for Ingram and Hill your third-down back. That's my guess.
rockaction
Footballguy
And my guess is pretty much worthless.
Is this where we talk Justice Hill and his dynasty future? Couldn’t find a thread just for him. He’s got talent (balance, speed, hands, elusiveness) and I think is a fantasy asset at some point. Hard to say when though. Next year Ingram and Edwards could be gone but Dobbins will step into a larger role and he overlaps a lot of what Hill brings to the table along with a bit more between the tackles. Have to think a cheap banger type is brought in as well and that type of back seems to be have a role in the offense as a guy who can hit the hole hard to complement Lamar getting wide. Or maybe that guy is Dobbins and Hill spells him in the COP role.
As you can see more of variables and Hill’s been bouncing around the edge of rosters and waiver wires in my leagues. Anyone given this some thought?
As you can see more of variables and Hill’s been bouncing around the edge of rosters and waiver wires in my leagues. Anyone given this some thought?
jtd13
Footballguy
I thought Hill had a nice audition yesterday. I added him in a couple deeper leagues, mostly in hopes of an off-season trade. He's 2 years from free agency though, so if he's not traded I probably won't hold him.
I think Edwards is a RFA, so he's almost sure to be back in 2021 since they can retain him for pretty cheap.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I have, actually. Like I was writing in the game thread and in one of the trade threads back a while ago, I rostered him because I have a pretty big roster and it's a deeper league. (51 man rosters during the year, cut down to 48 at end, need 10 restricted free agents to cut down to 40 for auction pool period.) So he's on my roster via a trade for Devine Ozigbo and him for Matt Breida. So you can tell his value right there to the average dynasty player. Nil.
But he's, to my eyes, a really good running back who isn't necessarily a between-the-tackles every down back, like you noticed. I can say that Baltimore drafting and signing Dobbins appears to be the end of his career as a fantasy asset unless Dobbins gets hurt or Justice gets traded. He lacks the draft capital and isn't a free agent until 2023. That's a ways off. He'll also be twenty-five then, which is when most running backs begin to lose their fantasy usefulness.
So let's look at who might not be there next year among the backs. Ingram is older and probably is not retained by the club to be their primary back. That's sort of industry consensus, though I could see him returning to captain the club in some way in an understanding that he'll have a reduced role and reduced salary. So there's that to consider. But likely gone. Gus Edwards is a RFA in 2021. I'm not sure what sort of interest he'll bring in the market. He makes about $750,000 this year. Can you think of anyone that wants to sign a back like Edwards to more than that? I have a tough time seeing it. Dobbins is clearly ahead of Hill and signed through 2023. So for Hill to have fantasy relevance, he'd have to leapfrog one of the two backs, or get freed up by trade or free agency. A trade is his best hope because if it's free agency, then it's a steep decline from twenty-five, and it often comes at twenty-six.
So the long and the short of it is now matter how enticing he looks he's a waste of a roster spot, really. There's no sense holding him unless injuries happen. That actually hurt to type, but unless things really break right for him, you might be better off taking a flyer on someone else. That's all I got.
rockaction
Footballguy
I should say I can't help but roster guys I think have talent to succeed in the NFL, regardless of situation. That said, sometimes situation never works out due to circumstances. This looks to be one of those times.
BoerumHill
Footballguy
I took Ingram as an RB3 around the 6th - he fell a bit below his ADP in our draft IIRC - and regretted every week of owning him. Even started him the Flex 3 times due to injuries. When I cut him Oct 21 he was still 90% owned, nobody picked him up (46% now.)
If the Ravens went belly up and their players were dispersed in a supplemental draft, I could see four landing somewhere they’d be a starter or a Flexible 1B. But like the Rams, they’re all trash bc of the way they are utilized.
rockaction
Footballguy
For redraft and this year, you're right. For dynasty, I think Dobbins is a solid acquisition and likely carries a first-round price, at least. He went 1.03 in most rookie drafts and everybody knew it would be a year.
BoerumHill
Footballguy
My gf has him on her team and IIRC she did well Flexing him late Oct/early Nov. Looks like he has a good future to me but I haven’t watched enough tape - I wanted no part of this backfield.
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Huh I looked at Edwards contract a couple weeks ago and swore I saw UFA but you guys are right, RFA. He’s likely back as a between the tackles option if thats not Dobbins and at a minimum probably spells Dobbins there so he can keep more of the passing/space stuff from Hill. That probably pushes this conversation to next year as Hill is then a year away from FA and Edwards is possibly gone giving him a shot at a role. Would agree with holding into the offseason if you can in hopes of a trade.
I do think he’s got a future somewhere. I don’t know if I agree (respectfully) that most backs lose fantasy usefulness at 25. This would be due to wear and tear? Or if they do happen to hit that age without many miles it’s probably because they weren’t considered good enough to get carries anyways? I’m not sure either of these scenarios will apply to Justice. I truly think the Ravens had big plans for him as their “space” back, receiving threat but he wasn’t quite ready as a rookie and Ingram excelled and then Dobbins fell late second and they said they liked him as a first rounder.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I think he's going to be a unique bird but the question becomes how long can you hold him considering the question of whether a space back is worthy of that roster spot you're going for as a home run. As far as the twenty-five year old thing goes, that's my new(er) rule of thumb because of some work done printed up and modeled on the DLF website back about three months or so ago. It is indeed due to the two things you mention. They found that, in general, the true fantasy point accumulators above the age of twenty-five are real outliers. There are some at twenty-six, but not many, and the number falls further at twenty-seven. Others have argued that this is due to the lack of good backs in the NFL and that this will change once Elliott, Barkley, Henry, Kamara, et. al age, but the writer at DLF makes a compelling case that 21-25 are the prime ages and they seem to be right when they talk about divesting yourself of anyone twenty-six or over if you want to get their maximal value. It's a rough truth, but if you're not hitting it at twenty-three and you've got this kind of situation around you, you might just be buried. Of course, if someone signs Hill to be the man at 25 and 26 then you've got yourself a potential gold mine, but it's again something that needs to break right for him. I'm not sure the league is really that attuned to the fourth back in Baltimore. Who knows? Maybe he's coveted somewhere. His audition yesterday went swimmingly against a tough opponent. Rushed nicely, and should have had a score but for an offensive lineman.
And that's really what I've got.
I think we’re mostly on the same page and captured it pretty well. My error on the status of Gus probably pushes this off for a year. Fringe roster guy again most of next year. Add at the end and see what happens. I agree there isn’t much of a chance he’s signed into a role as the man when he’s a FA. Best case would be an Edmonds like role on a fast paced offense. And then if he’s good enough maybe he can be more. That’s tough to hold for too long on my rosters (14 team 24 man roster, 16 team 20 man roster) but hoping to have him enough of the time that I’ll be holding when he does get an expanded role.rockaction said:
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
What a mess.... I'm still thinking Ingram is due one last monster game but who knows which one.... avoiding.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
This shouldn't be a shock to anyone.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I was going to cut him from my dynasty team but with Ingram gone, He's going to get some run if someone gets hurt I think. Deep rosters so why not keep him?
MAC_32
Footballguy
I just finished a 55 round (w idp) startup. Justice Hill was not drafted.
jtd13
Footballguy
Best case without injury is probably Gus Edwards numbers when Ingram was healthy last season, but I like the talent, and he'll get some run on a run-heavy offense.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
Normally I’d say he’s a top tier handcuff, but not sure you can even call him a handcuff. If only he caught passes for PPR leagues.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Agreed, he only had two weekly top 25 finishes over that 7 game stretch in 2018 when he was the lead guy sharing with Kenneth Dixon and Ty Montgomery. I'm not going to argue Justice Hill is better than them, but I'm sure not going to make a case he's worse. Regardless, that leaves me thinking we've already seen his weekly ceiling - a flex play that could put up RB2 numbers if he scores. I don't consider him a priority backup. Good bet he outproduces several players I prefer to him and I'm okay with that because the unknown and upside is what I covet on my bench.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
If you're drafting no rb then you're looking for a guy like him who you know will give you at least some yards every week on the off chance that all your late round dart throws miss. I don't see a week where he doesn't get 5-10 carries, and any points are better than a goose egg.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I like Hill a lot but I am not sure he would make a top 300 list or not and I would estimate that a league like this drafted 300 or more offensive players.
MAC_32
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
I'm sure. Me personally, I generally don't care about most non-rookie RB's that lack a non-injury path to RB2 before September. Guys like Justice Hill and Joshua Kelley do nothing for me even though I think one is clearly better than the other. So I see that Kelley was drafted in the 38th round and if you told me to pick one then I'd pick Hill, but we also went 17 more rounds without me considering that. But I also picked someone not currently on a NFL roster, so what do I know.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree with preferring Hill over Josh Kelly and likely a lot of players that were drafted ahead of him.
That said if I tried to rank 300 offensive players I'm not sure Hill would make the list.
That said if I tried to rank 300 offensive players I'm not sure Hill would make the list.
rockaction
Footballguy
Still holding Hill in hopes of maybe some usage. He's buried in Baltimore. I think that when our league has cut-downs, which is right after camp and before the season, Hill might have to go.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Anyone read what Matt Waldman had to say about Ty’son Williams is his Gut Check? Found it quite interesting and I always pay attention to what Waldman has to say.
“Williams could be that type of option this year if J.K. Dobbinsgets hurt. Williams was a vaunted prospect at North Carolina who transferred to South Carolina as a sophomore. He flashed big-time skills but found himself mired on a depth chart carousel and left for BYU. Williams made a great impression at BYU and earned the starting gig as a senior before suffering an ACL tear.
This is a well-built back with the burst, efficient footwork, and contact balance to earn significant touches in the NFL. If he had put together the performances he had at BYU for a longer period of time, he would have been drafted.”
“Williams could be that type of option this year if J.K. Dobbinsgets hurt. Williams was a vaunted prospect at North Carolina who transferred to South Carolina as a sophomore. He flashed big-time skills but found himself mired on a depth chart carousel and left for BYU. Williams made a great impression at BYU and earned the starting gig as a senior before suffering an ACL tear.
This is a well-built back with the burst, efficient footwork, and contact balance to earn significant touches in the NFL. If he had put together the performances he had at BYU for a longer period of time, he would have been drafted.”
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, he wrote about him last November around Thanksgiving with virtually the same report because of COVID. I remember it.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
(FantasyPros) ESPN's Jamison Hensley writes that Ty'Son Williams has "leapfrogged" Justice Hill as the Ravens' No. 2 running back. Analysis: Williams is an undrafted free agent who rushed 24 times for 130 yards and a score during the preseason. It's also noteworthy that Baltimore rested him for the final three quarters of their third preseason game. Gus Edwards is positioned to become the team's starter sans J.K. Dobbins (ACL), but Williams could slide into Edwards' former change-of-pace role. He's worth adding in deeper and/or dynasty leagues.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Gus is good. But Williams looking strong. Ty'Son would have been drafted out of BYU if not for his ACL injury so the UDFA label doesn't seem to fit well even though technically true. Losing Dobbins' skill set just opens the door wider for Williams/Hill. Gus has never taken the job and run with it even with old Ingram in tow.
He isn't a complete back so he will never be the sole guy in this offense. He is good at the battering ram which is needed but will always need a complimentary back. Expecting Gus to "take the job" is the wrong way to look at it. He has a role that is useful and he is good at. it has value in fantasy but he won't ever be a RB1
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Agreed, that's my point. Dobbins WAS more complete, so there is meat on the Baltimore bone to gnaw on.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I'm just doing this from memory, but I don't recall Justice Hill doing anything spectacular whenever he's had a chance in the spotlight.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Edwards one of 3 ppl in nfl history to avg over 5 yards per carry in each of his first 3 seasons. he's going to eat this year. why can't ppl just accept that? this guy is going to absolutely kill it.
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