Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Ingram, Dobbins, Edwards & Hill: Outlook for Ravens RBs


Recommended Posts

  • 3 weeks later...
  • Replies 773
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Best quote from this article Forsett managed 11 yards on five carries in one forgettable game. Buck Allen has nearly as many yards receiving (19) as he does rushing (20). Terrance West has scored

I'm going to assume JK gets some good burn this week with Lamar not being able to practice for a while. The passing game always needs more practice reps than the run game.

I thought Hill had a nice audition yesterday. I added him in a couple deeper leagues, mostly in hopes of an off-season trade. He's 2 years from free agency though, so if he's not traded I probably won


 

Quote

Ravens placed J.K. Dobbins on the COVID list.

It's very convenient that both Mark Ingram and Dobbins tested positive on Sunday night rather than pre-game Sunday morning. Both will sit for Thursday's (pending) contest against the Steelers, vaulting Gus Edwards and Justice Hill up the team's depth chart. Edwards in particular averaged 5.44 yards per carry against Pittsburgh's daunting front-seven in Week 8 and is expected to lead Baltimore's backfield in touches since Hill has played 17 snaps all year. Expect Edwards to headline John Daigle's Waiver Wire column on Tuesday.

RELATED: 

Gus Edwards

, Justice Hill

SOURCE: Mike Garafolo on Twitter

Nov 23, 2020, 2:43 PM ET

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BoerumHill said:

Justice Hill seems like a no-brainer $1 pickup this week. I could see the Bus having a 12-35 game facing all the 7 and 8 man fronts, with Hill getting all the fun parts of the playbook snaps. 

Good luck starting Hill. Gus has done very well against the Steelers the past two seasons. Even against a stout D, Gus is a must start

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Faust said:

Ravens placed J.K. Dobbins on the COVID list.

It's very convenient that both Mark Ingram and Dobbins tested positive on Sunday night rather than pre-game Sunday morning. Both will sit for Thursday's (pending) contest against the Steelers, vaulting Gus Edwards and Justice Hill up the team's depth chart. Edwards in particular averaged 5.44 yards per carry against Pittsburgh's daunting front-seven in Week 8 and is expected to lead Baltimore's backfield in touches since Hill has played 17 snaps all year. Expect Edwards to headline John Daigle's Waiver Wire column on Tuesday.

RELATED: 

Gus Edwards

, Justice Hill

SOURCE: Mike Garafolo on Twitter

Nov 23, 2020, 2:43 PM ET

 

We just can't have nice things, can we? 

Just when it appeared that John Harbaugh woke up and turned up his rookie RB loose to be a bellcow RB.   

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
6 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Any guess at this is begging for :lmao:

I would imagine it’s do or die time for a lot of teams this week and considering what A Gibson did to Dallas on Thanksgiving Dobbins is going to be a very popular flex consideration. Add to this Dobbins got nearly all the work previously in week 11 with a healthy Ingram and Edwards standing on the sideline. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, The Show said:

I would imagine it’s do or die time for a lot of teams this week and considering what A Gibson did to Dallas on Thanksgiving Dobbins is going to be a very popular flex consideration. Add to this Dobbins got nearly all the work previously in week 11 with a healthy Ingram and Edwards standing on the sideline. 

Okay, you win. I will say that Dobbins is the most talented back they have right now, but is brutal in pass pro which, as much as fantasy guys hate it, will keep you off the field and hurt one's PPR volume from the two-three inevitable checkdowns per game that come from pressure.

And I wasn't laughing at your question from a football or fantasy perspective. I was laughing about the impossibility of speculation. Sorry if that came across wrong. I think it's absolutely futile to try and guess. The OC has said himself all year that they'll go with whatever the game plan and situation bring. They have four guys that can carry the ball. We saw both Edwards and Hill effective in fits and starts today. If pressed, I'd guess Ingram gets the start, Dobbins is your feature, Edwards your battering ram/spell for Ingram and Hill your third-down back. That's my guess.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Okay, you win. I will say that Dobbins is the most talented back they have right now, but is brutal in pass pro which, as much as fantasy guys hate it, will keep you off the field and hurt one's PPR volume from the two-three inevitable checkdowns per game that come from pressure.

And I wasn't laughing at your question from a football or fantasy perspective. I was laughing about the impossibility of speculation. Sorry if that came across wrong. I think it's absolutely futile to try and guess. The OC has said himself all year that they'll go with whatever the game plan and situation bring. They have four guys that can carry the ball. We saw both Edwards and Hill effective in fits and starts today. If pressed, I'd guess Ingram gets the start, Dobbins is your feature, Edwards your battering ram/spell for Ingram and Hill your third-down back. That's my guess.

I’m afraid of this scenario too. I think you may be right. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Is this where we talk Justice Hill and his dynasty future? Couldn’t find a thread just for him. He’s got talent (balance, speed, hands, elusiveness) and I think is a fantasy asset at some point. Hard to say when though. Next year Ingram and Edwards could be gone but Dobbins will step into a larger role and he overlaps a lot of what Hill brings to the table along with a bit more between the tackles. Have to think a cheap banger type is brought in as well and that type of back seems to be have a role in the offense as a guy who can hit the hole hard to complement Lamar getting wide. Or maybe that guy is Dobbins and Hill spells him in the COP role.

 

As you can see more of variables and Hill’s been bouncing around the edge of rosters and waiver wires in my leagues. Anyone given this some thought?

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Cobbler1 said:

Is this where we talk Justice Hill and his dynasty future? Couldn’t find a thread just for him. He’s got talent (balance, speed, hands, elusiveness) and I think is a fantasy asset at some point. Hard to say when though. Next year Ingram and Edwards could be gone but Dobbins will step into a larger role and he overlaps a lot of what Hill brings to the table along with a bit more between the tackles. Have to think a cheap banger type is brought in as well and that type of back seems to be have a role in the offense as a guy who can hit the hole hard to complement Lamar getting wide. Or maybe that guy is Dobbins and Hill spells him in the COP role.

 

As you can see more of variables and Hill’s been bouncing around the edge of rosters and waiver wires in my leagues. Anyone given this some thought?

I thought Hill had a nice audition yesterday. I added him in a couple deeper leagues, mostly in hopes of an off-season trade. He's 2 years from free agency though, so if he's not traded I probably won't hold him. 

I think Edwards is a RFA, so he's almost sure to be back in 2021 since they can retain him for pretty cheap. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Cobbler1 said:

As you can see more of variables and Hill’s been bouncing around the edge of rosters and waiver wires in my leagues. Anyone given this some thought?

Yeah, I have, actually. Like I was writing in the game thread and in one of the trade threads back a while ago, I rostered him because I have a pretty big roster and it's a deeper league. (51 man rosters during the year, cut down to 48 at end, need 10 restricted free agents to cut down to 40 for auction pool period.) So he's on my roster via a trade for Devine Ozigbo and him for Matt Breida. So you can tell his value right there to the average dynasty player. Nil.

But he's, to my eyes, a really good running back who isn't necessarily a between-the-tackles every down back, like you noticed. I can say that Baltimore drafting and signing Dobbins appears to be the end of his career as a fantasy asset unless Dobbins gets hurt or Justice gets traded. He lacks the draft capital and isn't a free agent until 2023. That's a ways off. He'll also be twenty-five then, which is when most running backs begin to lose their fantasy usefulness.

So let's look at who might not be there next year among the backs. Ingram is older and probably is not retained by the club to be their primary back. That's sort of industry consensus, though I could see him returning to captain the club in some way in an understanding that he'll have a reduced role and reduced salary. So there's that to consider. But likely gone. Gus Edwards is a RFA in 2021. I'm not sure what sort of interest he'll bring in the market. He makes about $750,000 this year. Can you think of anyone that wants to sign a back like Edwards to more than that? I have a tough time seeing it. Dobbins is clearly ahead of Hill and signed through 2023. So for Hill to have fantasy relevance, he'd have to leapfrog one of the two backs, or get freed up by trade or free agency. A trade is his best hope because if it's free agency, then it's a steep decline from twenty-five, and it often comes at twenty-six.

So the long and the short of it is now matter how enticing he looks he's a waste of a roster spot, really. There's no sense holding him unless injuries happen. That actually hurt to type, but unless things really break right for him, you might be better off taking a flyer on someone else. That's all I got.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I should say I can't help but roster guys I think have talent to succeed in the NFL, regardless of situation. That said, sometimes situation never works out due to circumstances. This looks to be one of those times.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, rockaction said:

I should say I can't help but roster guys I think have talent to succeed in the NFL, regardless of situation. That said, sometimes situation never works out due to circumstances. This looks to be one of those times.

I took Ingram as an RB3 around the 6th - he fell a bit below his ADP in our draft IIRC - and regretted every week of owning him. Even started him the Flex 3 times due to injuries. When I cut him Oct 21 he was still 90% owned, nobody picked him up (46% now.)

If the Ravens went belly up and their players were dispersed in a supplemental draft, I could see four landing somewhere they’d be a starter or a Flexible 1B. But like the Rams, they’re all trash bc of the way they are utilized.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BoerumHill said:

I took Ingram as an RB3 around the 6th - he fell a bit below his ADP in our draft IIRC - and regretted every week of owning him. Even started him the Flex 3 times due to injuries. When I cut him Oct 21 he was still 90% owned, nobody picked him up (46% now.)

If the Ravens went belly up and their players were dispersed in a supplemental draft, I could see four landing somewhere they’d be a starter or a Flexible 1B. But like the Rams, they’re all trash bc of the way they are utilized.

For redraft and this year, you're right. For dynasty, I think Dobbins is a solid acquisition and likely carries a first-round price, at least. He went 1.03 in most rookie drafts and everybody knew it would be a year. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

For redraft and this year, you're right. For dynasty, I think Dobbins is a solid acquisition and likely carries a first-round price, at least. He went 1.03 in most rookie drafts and everybody knew it would be a year. 

My gf has him on her team and IIRC she did well Flexing him late Oct/early Nov. Looks like he has a good future to me but I haven’t watched enough tape - I wanted no part of this backfield.

Edited by BoerumHill
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jtd13 said:

I thought Hill had a nice audition yesterday. I added him in a couple deeper leagues, mostly in hopes of an off-season trade. He's 2 years from free agency though, so if he's not traded I probably won't hold him. 

I think Edwards is a RFA, so he's almost sure to be back in 2021 since they can retain him for pretty cheap. 

 

2 hours ago, rockaction said:

I should say I can't help but roster guys I think have talent to succeed in the NFL, regardless of situation. That said, sometimes situation never works out due to circumstances. This looks to be one of those times.

Huh I looked at Edwards contract a couple weeks ago and swore I saw UFA but you guys are right, RFA. He’s likely back as a between the tackles option if thats not Dobbins and at a minimum probably spells Dobbins there so he can keep more of the passing/space stuff  from Hill. That probably pushes this conversation to next year as Hill is then a year away from FA and Edwards is possibly gone giving him a shot at a role. Would agree with holding into the offseason if you can in hopes of a trade.

 

I do think he’s got a future somewhere. I don’t know if I agree (respectfully) that most backs lose fantasy usefulness at 25. This would be due to wear and tear? Or if they do happen to hit that age without many miles it’s probably because they weren’t considered good enough to get carries anyways? I’m not sure either of these scenarios will apply to Justice. I truly think the Ravens had big plans for him as their “space” back, receiving threat but he wasn’t quite ready as a rookie and Ingram excelled and then Dobbins fell late second and they said they liked him as a first rounder. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

I do think he’s got a future somewhere. I don’t know if I agree (respectfully) that most backs lose fantasy usefulness at 25. This would be due to wear and tear? Or if they do happen to hit that age without many miles it’s probably because they weren’t considered good enough to get carries anyways? I’m not sure either of these scenarios will apply to Justice. I truly think the Ravens had big plans for him as their “space” back, receiving threat but he wasn’t quite ready as a rookie and Ingram excelled and then Dobbins fell late second and they said they liked him as a first rounder. 

Yeah, I think he's going to be a unique bird but the question becomes how long can you hold him considering the question of whether a space back is worthy of that roster spot you're going for as a home run. As far as the twenty-five year old thing goes, that's my new(er) rule of thumb because of some work done printed up and modeled on the DLF website back about three months or so ago. It is indeed due to the two things you mention. They found that, in general, the true fantasy point accumulators above the age of twenty-five are real outliers. There are some at twenty-six, but not many, and the number falls further at twenty-seven. Others have argued that this is due to the lack of good backs in the NFL and that this will change once Elliott, Barkley, Henry, Kamara, et. al age, but the writer at DLF makes a compelling case that 21-25 are the prime ages and they seem to be right when they talk about divesting yourself of anyone twenty-six or over if you want to get their maximal value. It's a rough truth, but if you're not hitting it at twenty-three and you've got this kind of situation around you, you might just be buried. Of course, if someone signs Hill to be the man at 25 and 26 then you've got yourself a potential gold mine, but it's again something that needs to break right for him. I'm not sure the league is really that attuned to the fourth back in Baltimore. Who knows? Maybe he's coveted somewhere. His audition yesterday went swimmingly against a tough opponent. Rushed nicely, and should have had a score but for an offensive lineman. 

And that's really what I've got.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, I think he's going to be a unique bird but the question becomes how long can you hold him considering the question of whether a space back is worthy of that roster spot you're going for as a home run. As far as the twenty-five year old thing goes, that's my new(er) rule of thumb because of some work done printed up and modeled on the DLF website back about three months or so ago. It is indeed due to the two things you mention. They found that, in general, the true fantasy point accumulators above the age of twenty-five are real outliers. There are some at twenty-six, but not many, and the number falls further at twenty-seven. Others have argued that this is due to the lack of good backs in the NFL and that this will change once Elliott, Barkley, Henry, Kamara, et. al age, but the writer at DLF makes a compelling case that 21-25 are the prime ages and they seem to be right when they talk about divesting yourself of anyone twenty-six or over if you want to get their maximal value. It's a rough truth, but if you're not hitting it at twenty-three and you've got this kind of situation around you, you might just be buried. Of course, if someone signs Hill to be the man at 25 and 26 then you've got yourself a potential gold mine, but it's again something that needs to break right for him. I'm not sure the league is really that attuned to the fourth back in Baltimore. Who knows? Maybe he's coveted somewhere. His audition yesterday went swimmingly against a tough opponent. Rushed nicely, and should have had a score but for an offensive lineman. 

And that's really what I've got.

I think we’re mostly on the same page and captured it pretty well. My error on the status of Gus probably pushes this off for a year. Fringe roster guy again most of next year. Add at the end and see what happens. I agree there isn’t much of a chance he’s signed into a role as the man when he’s a FA. Best case would be an Edmonds like role on a fast paced offense. And then if he’s good enough maybe he can be more. That’s tough to hold for too long on my rosters (14 team 24 man roster, 16 team 20 man roster) but hoping to have him enough of the time that I’ll be holding when he does get an expanded role.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...