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QB Tom Brady, TB (2 Viewers)

Yes, younger guys will bounce back faster from the same injury.

Yes, Brady plays a "minimal risk" way. Tosses it away. Folds like a blanket when needed.

Josh Allen/Murray types are at much higher risk due to trusting their rushing abilities. They rush more and therefore put themselves at more risk more often.

Also, water is wet. But I wanted to toss that in there since I'm just re-stating the obvious. LOL

 
Scooby1974 said:
Yes, younger guys will bounce back faster from the same injury.

Yes, Brady plays a "minimal risk" way. Tosses it away. Folds like a blanket when needed.

Josh Allen/Murray types are at much higher risk due to trusting their rushing abilities. They rush more and therefore put themselves at more risk more often.

Also, water is wet. But I wanted to toss that in there since I'm just re-stating the obvious. LOL
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I mean, yeah - this is obvious stuff, but it bears repeating when folks are talking about 50+ TDs and dominating the league. Just a little reality check that things went extremely well for the Bucs last year both internally & externally. 

Hey, remember way back when Mahomes threw 50 & everyone said the Chiefs would be an unstoppable force in the NFL and would win the next several Super Bowls, and Mahomes could throw for 70 TDs and it didn't matter that their defense wasn't that great because of how ridiculously amazing their offense was? 

Mahomes still only has 1 ring, and missed some time due to a sprained knee. He hasn't had a season as dominant since. 

Sometimes the hype gets a little out of control is all I'm saying. Maybe after all is said & done it will be justified. 

But this time last year, pretty much only @Joe Bryant & a very small handful of others were here saying Brady & the Bucs would be a magical fit & should be considered favorites for the SB. I also recall a window of time early on where that same group appeared to waiver a bit with their slow start. 

A lot can change over the course of a season. I'm not trying to rain on the parade of optimists. The hype is just getting a little out of control for my tastes, and I'm a "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" kinda guy.  

 
zoonation said:
50 TD's this year.  Book it.  Tampa is going to dominate the league.
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In that year, he had 4,806 yards and 50 TD's.  Obviously his best season ever.  398 completions in 578 attempts.

In 2020 he had 401 completions in 610 attempts.  4,633 yards and 40 TDs.  I think we can expect the volume to be somewhat similar in 2021.  Also, Tampa RB's accounted for 15! drops last year.  They've added Giovanni Bernard.  So, it's doable if his efficiency numbers improve. 

A historic season isn't out of the question.  I think it will depend on how things look toward the end of the season and if they want to go for it or not.  They had several games last year where they sat on the ball late with big leads.  The 2007 Patriots did not operate that way.

 
Grahamburn said:
They had several games last year where they sat on the ball late with big leads.  The 2007 Patriots did not operate that way.
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This is an excellent point. The Bucs have an elite D. And Arians likes to run the ball. 

Hoodie could be up 5 scores and still send Brady out to throw another 50 & a TD. The Bucs don't really operate that way. 

If people in here are right about the Bucs defense, then I don't see a 50 TD season for Brady. Also many point to the weak schedule - which also plays strongly towards some games where the Bucs win with running  & defense. 

 
After last season I'm all aboard the codger train!  His supporting cast is so good, it mitigates much of the risk, and allows him to be Tom Terrific.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
This is an excellent point. The Bucs have an elite D. And Arians likes to run the ball. 

Hoodie could be up 5 scores and still send Brady out to throw another 50 & a TD. The Bucs don't really operate that way. 

If people in here are right about the Bucs defense, then I don't see a 50 TD season for Brady. Also many point to the weak schedule - which also plays strongly towards some games where the Bucs win with running  & defense. 
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Quality over quantity.  He may not throw for 50 TD's but I'd bet his floor is 35 or so.....I mean, it's not like they can just run every down......if they are clickin like they were last season, Tom's gonna drops some bombs.....gotta lotta mouths to feed on that offense

 
Manster said:
Quality over quantity.  He may not throw for 50 TD's but I'd bet his floor is 35 or so.....I mean, it's not like they can just run every down......if they are clickin like they were last season, Tom's gonna drops some bombs.....gotta lotta mouths to feed on that offense
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Don't forget a few QB sneaks for TDs when Tom calls his own number. Or a few 1 to 2-yard TD  passes when Brady calls an audible. No hyperbole, TB has the greatest cast of receivers ever assembled, playing at or near their peak. He has the highest floor and ceiling. 

 
Manster said:
Quality over quantity.  He may not throw for 50 TD's but I'd bet his floor is 35 or so.....I mean, it's not like they can just run every down......if they are clickin like they were last season, Tom's gonna drops some bombs.....gotta lotta mouths to feed on that offense
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Sure - I never suggested his floor wasn't elite.

But when it comes to FF points I'd take an ugly 40 TDs out of Stafford over a pretty 35 out of Brady. 

Then math doesn't seem to favor quality over quantity is all I'm sayin. 

:)  

 
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I'm curious, with these lofty expectations, what does a "bust" season for Brady look like for fantasy purposes? 

3,800 yards, 30 PaTD, 10 Int? 

His ADP isn't unreasonable for his ceiling, but what floor would he have to hit for shareholders to be disappointed in him for 2021? 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I would suggest he is at greater risk due to age. Now of course that depends on which other QBs we're comparing him to. Big Ben or Fitzmagic? Probably about equal risk. 

Josh Allen? Probably greater risk. 

I'm not talking about some devastating injury like Burrow's knee last year. That can happen to anyone on any play (knock on wood). I'm talking more about something like Kyler Murray's shoulder or nagging injuries like a sprain  or bone bruise. 

Maybe it's not necessarily missed time either, and more diminished performance as a result. Like, Brady could play through a sprained ankle - he's hardly a mobile QB. But would it effect his ability to step into his passes? Would it linger longer in a 44 y/o than it might in a 24 y/o? 

Again, not predicting anything. Just being mindful of his age in considering the Bucs as a slam dunk Super Bowl team. A lot has to go right getting from here to there, and age is certainly a consideration. 
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Josh Allen? That guy is running fullback dives into a linebacker every goal line situation the Bills get. He’s WAY more likely to get hurt. Brady is the best ever at diagnosing the blitz and even when the line gets beat, he just turtles. 
 

Of course he could get hurt but I’d say he’s way less likely to than many (most?) other QBs. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Sure - I never suggested his floor wasn't elite.

But when it comes to FF points I'd take an ugly 40 TDs out of Stafford over a pretty 35 out of Brady. 

Then math doesn't seem to favor quality over quantity is all I'm sayin. 

:)  
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I like Staff in LA too, but Im a fair bit more leery of that sitch than TB.

 
Capella said:
Josh Allen? That guy is running fullback dives into a linebacker every goal line situation the Bills get. He’s WAY more likely to get hurt. Brady is the best ever at diagnosing the blitz and even when the line gets beat, he just turtles. 
 

Of course he could get hurt but I’d say he’s way less likely to than many (most?) other QBs. 
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But Allen is also way more likely to recover from bumps and bruises due to age. That's my only point there. 

Injuries aren't a binary where it's either season-ending or brush it off. There are degrees, like anything. It's the 'tweener injuries I'm concerned about where a younger player might shake off a minor sprain faster than Brady at 44. 

I also don't mean to make a mountain out of a molehill here, since I'm certainly not predicting an injury, as I've said a few times. 

It's not a major concern. But it's not nothing, either.  

 
Grahamburn said:
In that year, he had 4,806 yards and 50 TD's.  Obviously his best season ever.  398 completions in 578 attempts.

In 2020 he had 401 completions in 610 attempts.  4,633 yards and 40 TDs.  I think we can expect the volume to be somewhat similar in 2021.  Also, Tampa RB's accounted for 15! drops last year.  They've added Giovanni Bernard.  So, it's doable if his efficiency numbers improve. 

A historic season isn't out of the question.  I think it will depend on how things look toward the end of the season and if they want to go for it or not.  They had several games last year where they sat on the ball late with big leads.  The 2007 Patriots did not operate that way.
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Great post.  

I know it’s a long shot and, frankly, TB may be blowing teams out early this year if that d stays healthy, further reducing pass attempts.  

 
Has anybody noticed that the VBD projections for TB have him at 5,011 passing yards, 41 TDs???  😳

He's the no.2 ranked QB which seems absurd.  

 
blue42 said:
Has anybody noticed that the VBD projections for TB have him at 5,011 passing yards, 41 TDs???  😳

He's the no.2 ranked QB which seems absurd.  
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I know right?  Clearly he should be no.1.

Think of it like a momentum stock that the market fully caught up with yet, like if Amazon had a bad year 2 years ago but restored earnings growth last year after a change in management.   Would it be appropriate for that stock to have anything less than a market leading P/E multiple?

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
I know right?  Clearly he should be no.1.

Think of it like a momentum stock that the market fully caught up with yet, like if Amazon had a bad year 2 years ago but restored earnings growth last year after a change in management.   Would it be appropriate for that stock to have anything less than a market leading P/E multiple?
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Yes.  If it has reached maturity and its nearest competitors are about the same size and have higher growth potential.

 
You don't tug on superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off that old lone ranger
And you don't mess around with Tom

 
Scooby1974 said:
You don't tug on superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off that old lone ranger
And you don't mess around with Tom
Click to expand...


This very well may be true.   I first thought that the projections / VBD ranking were just plain wrong.  After reviewing, the consensus stats are what they are...In my league, he's the no.2 QB (6pt passing TDs) above Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, etc....Guys that appear to have a big upside.  

Further, the Draft Dominator (using the same stat projections) had him 10th.  That's a huge difference.  Was just trying to understand if I was missing something.  

Looks like there's a possibility that no.2 ranking is right.  Only time will tell... 

 
blue42 said:
This very well may be true.   I first thought that the projections / VBD ranking were just plain wrong.  After reviewing, the consensus stats are what they are...In my league, he's the no.2 QB (6pt passing TDs) above Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, etc....Guys that appear to have a big upside.  

Further, the Draft Dominator (using the same stat projections) had him 10th.  That's a huge difference.  Was just trying to understand if I was missing something.  

Looks like there's a possibility that no.2 ranking is right.  Only time will tell... 
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Passing TD's worth 6pts will certainly up his value.

 
Thanks.  This makes me feel better for taking TB when other big names were available. I passed on Jackson, Wilson and Dak to grab him.  Was having a bit of buyers remorse...

 
blue42 said:
Thanks.  This makes me feel better for taking TB when other big names were available. I passed on Jackson, Wilson and Dak to grab him.  Was having a bit of buyers remorse...
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You'll be fine.  I personally don't think he has near the risk those 3 have either.  If they have a hot start to the season he could start record chasing too.

 
Tom Brady completed 32-of-50 passes for 379 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions in the Bucs' 31-29, Week 1 win over the Cowboys. 

It's Week 1, but tonight will go down as one of the fantasy games of the year, with both the Bucs and Cowboys simply exploding the box score. The 379 yards were Brady's third most as a Buc during the regular season, though he has now reached that mark in three of his past four games, never compiling fewer than 348 in that span. He relentlessly worked his connections with Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, and could have had an even bigger night had Godwin not dropped a 46-yard touchdown on a somewhat difficult play. Neither of Brady's "interceptions" were his fault, with the first clanging off of Leonard Fournette's stone hands and the second coming on a first half Hail Mary. The biggest play of the night was Brady's 47-yard touchdown strike to AB in the second quarter, where AB stole Anthony Brown's soul and Brady found him along the sideline. Brady's arm looked as strong as it has his entire time in Tampa. The man is simply a freak at 44 years of age. He's going to immolate the Falcons on 10 days rest in Week 2.
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While true that neither of the interceptions were his fault, he also had a couple of panicky about to get sacked falling down, WTF, fling it to nobody plays - one hit the ground harmlessly the other Leonard Fournette managed to get a hold of near the sideline.

that was a pretty mixed bag from Brady tonight. He looked pretty rough early on but obviously picked it up as the game went on.

Dallas has no secondary. That’s my biggest takeaway.

Overall, Bucs couldn’t run the ball, which is shocking against that Dallas D, and neither team looked great. 

Finally, I’m not sure if TB wins without a blatant hand to the middle of the chest, full extension push-off that miraculously wasn’t called to put them in FG range. I’m as happy to see the Cowboys lose as anyone, but that was completely egregious. I can’t imagine what the refs were looking at on that play, but it wasn’t the receiver. 

I’m interested to see TB play against a team with a defense. 

 
I disagree.  I think Brady looked great.  Godwin had a huge drop and, as you say, neither INT was his fault.  How much more do you want him to light up a defence?  In week 1?

 
Really glad that I got Brady in one of my two leagues and seriously bummed that he was grabbed one pick before I was planning on taking him in the other. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
While true that neither of the interceptions were his fault, he also had a couple of panicky about to get sacked falling down, WTF, fling it to nobody plays - one hit the ground harmlessly the other Leonard Fournette managed to get a hold of near the sideline.

that was a pretty mixed bag from Brady tonight. He looked pretty rough early on but obviously picked it up as the game went on.

Dallas has no secondary. That’s my biggest takeaway.

Overall, Bucs couldn’t run the ball, which is shocking against that Dallas D, and neither team looked great. 

Finally, I’m not sure if TB wins without a blatant hand to the middle of the chest, full extension push-off that miraculously wasn’t called to put them in FG range. I’m as happy to see the Cowboys lose as anyone, but that was completely egregious. I can’t imagine what the refs were looking at on that play, but it wasn’t the receiver. 

I’m interested to see TB play against a team with a defense. 
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I guess you'd prefer he stand in there and take hits so the injury prediction you made a few days ago could come to fruition?  That's how he plays.  That's how he's always played.  He doesn't hold the ball and take hits. At this point you just don't like Tom Brady if you can't see how amazingly precise he was last night.

Bucs didn't really try to run the ball because, well, they have Tom Brady and amazing receivers. 

That game also isn't remotely close without a RoJo fumble, Fournette clank INT, and Godwin's pair of gaffes.  Brady was fantastic last night.  My goodness.

 
Mingooch said:
Was it just me or did Brady's throws look a bit more dart like with better velocity than usual?  I am not saying all were perfect by any means, but it seemed like he had something extra on the ball most of the night.
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Those throws were just like last year when he threw for 40 TDs. After a slow start in 2020 on deep throws, he became more accurate, and his great accuracy on deep throws last night was just a continuation. He had several throws into the dirt, which looked to me like Brady getting rid of the ball quickly. He's doing what Tua and Mac did at Alabama, making very good throws to an all-star cast. And lots of football smarts, like on the 2nd TD to Gronk. At age 44 which is remarkable. 

 
Mingooch said:
Was it just me or did Brady's throws look a bit more dart like with better velocity than usual?  I am not saying all were perfect by any means, but it seemed like he had something extra on the ball most of the night.
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I was thinking the same thing.  His arm looked better than the last few years to me.  It does seem like as he gets older it looks better early and then fades a bit towards seasons end.  But it looked live last night.  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
While true that neither of the interceptions were his fault, he also had a couple of panicky about to get sacked falling down, WTF, fling it to nobody plays - one hit the ground harmlessly the other Leonard Fournette managed to get a hold of near the sideline.

that was a pretty mixed bag from Brady tonight. He looked pretty rough early on but obviously picked it up as the game went on.

Dallas has no secondary. That’s my biggest takeaway.

Overall, Bucs couldn’t run the ball, which is shocking against that Dallas D, and neither team looked great. 

Finally, I’m not sure if TB wins without a blatant hand to the middle of the chest, full extension push-off that miraculously wasn’t called to put them in FG range. I’m as happy to see the Cowboys lose as anyone, but that was completely egregious. I can’t imagine what the refs were looking at on that play, but it wasn’t the receiver. 

I’m interested to see TB play against a team with a defense. 
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lollllllllllllll 

dude he looked objectively great. Come on. You’re not going to be on the right side of this. 

 
Capella said:
lollllllllllllll 

dude he looked objectively great. Come on. You’re not going to be on the right side of this. 
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Eh. 

I saw quite a few plays that weren’t great by any measure.

being objective means looking at the bad with the good.  Brady made some great throws. 

Then he made that falling down flailing toss to no one that Fournette somehow came down with - if you think that was a “great” play, then we have different definitions of greatness. 

It was a shootout & exciting game. I wasn’t impressed by either defense, neither team even tried to run the ball (TB did a little early on) and both offenses started shaky.

it is what it is. 

 
Yep, I'm convinced Tom Brady sold his soul to the devil.  No one can have so much going for him and not.  He's good looking, rich, successful beyond belief, admired by so many and has a beautiful wife.

-Robert Johnson

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Eh. 

I saw quite a few plays that weren’t great by any measure.

being objective means looking at the bad with the good.  Brady made some great throws. 

Then he made that falling down flailing toss to no one that Fournette somehow came down with - if you think that was a “great” play, then we have different definitions of greatness. 

It was a shootout & exciting game. I wasn’t impressed by either defense, neither team even tried to run the ball (TB did a little early on) and both offenses started shaky.

it is what it is. 
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PFF is objective and gave him an elite grade. Yes, he made one dumb throw to Fournette. Out of like 40 passes. 
 

Why would Tampa throw the ball with this quarterback and these receivers? Any time they run the ball it’s benefiting the defense. 

 
Capella said:
PFF is objective and gave him an elite grade. Yes, he made one dumb throw to Fournette. Out of like 40 passes. 
 
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It wasn’t just 1 dumb throw (though that one was a Daniel Jones-like throw) - he also had several inaccurate throws in the 1st quarter. It wasn’t a great start for either team.

1st game of the season, I understand it. But I don’t have to compliment it either. 

Capella said:
Why would Tampa throw the ball with this quarterback and these receivers? Any time they run the ball it’s benefiting the defense. 
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I dunno, maybe to play with some semblance of balance?  To control the clock (which neither team seemed interested in)?

The ends don’t always justify the means. I understand looking at the box score, seeing a combined ~800 air yards & saying “wow these teams played great!” 

I am not as generous in my estimation of that football game.  It was a weird game. I don’t recall ever seeing a team playing 90+% of snaps out of the shotgun, much less both teams. 

 
@Hot Sauce Guy- I am a big fan of your posting, but on this one you need to take a breath here. Last night was Prime Brady, he was amazing and he is 44 years old. Enjoy his excellence while you can. He was throwing ropes, including several deep throws on the money. The league is a passing league and when you have Brady, along with Evans, Godwin, Antonio Brown, Gronk, and others then undoubtedly you pass the ball.

It was a game that I will remember for a long time and I thank Dak and the Cowboys for their good play that kept it close and helped make the return of the NFL for 2021 a rousing success. Keep on keeping on Mr. Brady. Let's go for 60 TDs and another Super Bowl championship!

 
rzrback77 said:
@Hot Sauce Guy- I am a big fan of your posting, but on this one you need to take a breath here. Last night was Prime Brady, he was amazing and he is 44 years old. Enjoy his excellence while you can. He was throwing ropes, including several deep throws on the money. The league is a passing league and when you have Brady, along with Evans, Godwin, Antonio Brown, Gronk, and others then undoubtedly you pass the ball.

It was a game that I will remember for a long time and I thank Dak and the Cowboys for their good play that kept it close and helped make the return of the NFL for 2021 a rousing success. Keep on keeping on Mr. Brady. Let's go for 60 TDs and another Super Bowl championship!
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It was impressive.

I was as impressed by Brady’s performance as anyone here, I promise. 

He was hardly flawless. I didn’t think it taboo to point out the less than impressive plays. 

mostly my criticism is with the coaching on both sides. 

But hey, everyone loves a good fireworks display & that’s what we got last night. 💥 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
It wasn’t just 1 dumb throw (though that one was a Daniel Jones-like throw) - he also had several inaccurate throws in the 1st quarter. It wasn’t a great start for either team.

1st game of the season, I understand it. But I don’t have to compliment it either. 

I dunno, maybe to play with some semblance of balance?  To control the clock (which neither team seemed interested in)?

The ends don’t always justify the means. I understand looking at the box score, seeing a combined ~800 air yards & saying “wow these teams played great!” 

I am not as generous in my estimation of that football game.  It was a weird game. I don’t recall ever seeing a team playing 90+% of snaps out of the shotgun, much less both teams. 
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ok

 
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