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QB Tom Brady, TB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ComfortablyNumb
- Start date
LOL. These types of generic bashing comments never cease to amaze me.Just Win Baby said:
Brady threw for over 4,300 yds last season. If you prorate his final eight games when he finally had some semblance of a WR corps he would have had 5,000 yds and 32 TD's.
It was only two years ago when Peyton had "mechanical" issues and couldn't throw to his right at all due to the neck surgery.
Brady will be back in form this year with Gronk back and one more year of seasoning with his green WR corps.
Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
Interesting Brady stats Phantom, I didn't realize he was that productive in the 2nd half-thumbs up.
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karmarooster
Footballguy
The difference is that last year, he was still being drafted as something like QB5-10, when it was obvious that he didn't have the receiving options to support that. As of now, when being draft as QB12+, there's significant room to beat those expectations.
A few small differences between this year and last year - ideally Gronk, Vereen, and Amendola being healthy (all questionable), Dobson a year older, Edelmen back and a proven option - combined with lowered expectations, make him a decent value play.
Brady/Romo/Cutler/Big Ben/Palmer all make decent options as value QB2s who could perform like QB1s.
A few small differences between this year and last year - ideally Gronk, Vereen, and Amendola being healthy (all questionable), Dobson a year older, Edelmen back and a proven option - combined with lowered expectations, make him a decent value play.
Brady/Romo/Cutler/Big Ben/Palmer all make decent options as value QB2s who could perform like QB1s.
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Shutout
Footballguy
This is shaping up to be a great buy at the spot you will get him. Classic over-reaction of fantasy players: whenever a good player has a down year, it hurts/crushes/breaks the hearts of some owners and they swear off the player. People bail, despite all signs being practical that the player will return (a health improvement, a very logical situation that was remedied, the presence of weapons around the player they didn't have before).
People need to remember that this is TOm Brady. Not some guy like Derek Anderson that had one good year. This is a HOF icon that basically lost his top FIVE receivers last year and strapped it together on the fly with duct tape and still finished fantasy qb 12-14. If you can get him as the 12-14th QB off the board this year you are stealing. He is as good a candidate as there is to finish top 5-7 and you can buy that 2-4 rounds later? YES!
cstu
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
If that happens, it's great, but his ADP is showing him no lower than the 7th round as QB9. To me that's right where he should be.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I think that is mostly because the one monster game he had, against Pittsburgh, came in the 2nd half of the season. Granted, he was still better in the 2nd half of the season even without that game, but he still wasn't what he used to be. And it wasn't just because he had green receivers. I just remember being shocked at how many errant throws he made and open receivers he simply missed, as Brady is usually dead accurate.
Shutout
Footballguy
I hadn't looked too hard at adp. Was just going by comments I saw posted here recently but what you're saying sounds right. Sounds fair.
karmarooster
Footballguy
That might be going to far in the other direction. Pro-Brady arguments last year were something like "remember this is Tom Freaking Brady!" You don't get points for past SBs or HOF career or being an icon, etc.
But slow your roll a bit ... he did finish as "QB 14" in my leagues based on season totals, but it's deceptive.... he was 20th in terms of PPG, even include his late season surge (before that he was in the 20s), behind the talents of Sam Bradford, Josh McCown, and Alex Smith.
He still doesn't have GREAT weapons (but decent if including Gronk and Vereen), and still won't throw the ball as much as the Saints/Lions/Broncos etc. I'm saying he's a decent QBBC or QB2 with low end QB1 upside, but... the top 5 QB he is no more.
But slow your roll a bit ... he did finish as "QB 14" in my leagues based on season totals, but it's deceptive.... he was 20th in terms of PPG, even include his late season surge (before that he was in the 20s), behind the talents of Sam Bradford, Josh McCown, and Alex Smith.
He still doesn't have GREAT weapons (but decent if including Gronk and Vereen), and still won't throw the ball as much as the Saints/Lions/Broncos etc. I'm saying he's a decent QBBC or QB2 with low end QB1 upside, but... the top 5 QB he is no more.
karmarooster
Footballguy
The ADP varies - he's QB9 on FFC and QB11 on MFL. I may have exagerated - thought was going at or after QB12.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Brady posted 209-321-2519-16-5 over his last 8 games . . . and that included games with 172 yards and 122 yards over the last two games. Given that his only healthy receiver through that stretch was Edelman, those are some pretty lofty numbers. My only fear for Brady's fantasy outlook is that the defense should be better (at least on paper) and NE may look to run more and throw less. With a more balanced attack, I don't think Brady would make a run at 5000 passing yards. I do think overall he represents good value for this year, but again, it depends what it costs to get him.
Tau837
Footballguy
I agree he will probably be good value. But all this talk about his stretch run conveniently ignores his 2 playoff games.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I am in the camp that . . .
1 - Brady was hurt by his receiving corps from the previous year not being around last year
2 - Brady was hurt by injuries to his OL
3 - Brady was hurt by key injuries on defense that kept the defense on the field
4 - Brady was hurt by his receiving corps getting banged up last year
5 - Brady's skills have declined some (not as accurate, problems with longer throws, hears the footsteps and releases ball too early sometimes, not the same rapport with receivers or being too nitpicky)
I also think the article that said he might not be a Top 5 NFL QB based on skills alone anymore is probably more right than wrong, but that doesn't mean he is a terrible QB. Nothing wrong with being a Top 6-7 NFL QB on skills and mechanics . . . playing in a Top 3 offensive system. Fantasy wise, I don't see him going toe to toe with Peyton, Rodgers, or Brees, but he could be somewhere in the next tier (in that QB4 to QB8 range with not a lot separating any of them).
On my list, the first 4 could all change for the better, so he can easily improve on his 2013 numbers.
jurb26
Footballguy
Brady was terrorized by his WRs last year. He had 41 passes dropped, second only to Det/Stafford. 28 of those drops were by WRs. That number alone would have ranked 11th worst in the NFL and I don't think any team was worse from the position. NE WRs dropped 7% of their passes.
13 Julian EdelmanWR NE 105 8 151 69.5% 5.3%
14 Aaron Dobson WR NE 37 7 72 51.4% 9.7%
18 Shane Vereen RB NE 47 7 69 68.1% 10.1%
24 Kenbrell Thompkins WR NE 32 7 70 45.7% 10.0%
70 Danny Amendola WR NE 54 4 83 65.1% 4.8%
105 Brandon Bolden RB NE 21 3 29 72.4% 10.3%
174 Josh Boyce WR NE 9 2 19 47.4% 10.5%
227 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 39 1 66 59.1% 1.5%
233 Stevan Ridley RB NE 10 1 12 83.3% 8.3%
13 Julian EdelmanWR NE 105 8 151 69.5% 5.3%
14 Aaron Dobson WR NE 37 7 72 51.4% 9.7%
18 Shane Vereen RB NE 47 7 69 68.1% 10.1%
24 Kenbrell Thompkins WR NE 32 7 70 45.7% 10.0%
70 Danny Amendola WR NE 54 4 83 65.1% 4.8%
105 Brandon Bolden RB NE 21 3 29 72.4% 10.3%
174 Josh Boyce WR NE 9 2 19 47.4% 10.5%
227 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 39 1 66 59.1% 1.5%
233 Stevan Ridley RB NE 10 1 12 83.3% 8.3%
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Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Last year the defense was horrible on third down and struggled to get off the field. That didn't help the Pats because the offense couldn't produce without the ball.
THIS YEAR, if the Pats defense is DEMONSTRATIVELY better and in the Top 3, I see that as a potential problem as they could be ahead and opt to run a lot. If they are moderately better but still giving up some points and letting teams move the ball, I think that helps the offense (get the ball more but still need to keep scoring as the other team is moving the ball and scoring).
For example, if the Pats have a defense that doesn't give up much and NE gets up 17-0 in the first half and they can count on the defense, I think we might see more grinding out games than Brady throwing the ball all over the field (see the last two games of the regular season as examples). Running burns clock, they don't risk interceptions, and they essentially get to play keep away from their opponent (like teams did for long stretches against NE last year).
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Can't see any way the patriots have a top 3 defense.Anarchy99 said:
Brady is okay but the argument about his bad wrs isn't very comforting. They don't look much better this year if at all.
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Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I won't make any claims either way on the defense ---- a lot of that stuff comes down to injuries.
but you should understand how much talent they added, how much was missing last year, and the fact that their defense has done pretty well in some areas, the last few years, despite not always looking the best.
they were just 3 points out of 8th in points allowed last year, despite the injuries, and once you get past the standout 2 teams in turnovers, the pats were 1 of 10 teams in the 29-31 range which is a category they typically do well in.
add the injured players back, add the new ones, and I think this is a very promising defense.
as for the receivers -- gronk will be huge, and I think dobson will be much more productive in his second year and with the broken foot healed, not to mention amendola (no jinx)
Shutout
Footballguy
Probably because the NFL playoffs mean nothing to us in fantasy usually. Aaron Rodgers had subpar playoff appearance a few years ago and it doesn't effect the perception of him.Just Win Baby said:
Overall, I think people just generally recognize the regular season isn't the same as having a couple of weeks where you play the best of the best after a long season and the team is beat up on offense. Not saying it should or should not be factored, just thinking that's how people probably see it.
Shutout
Footballguy
Someone check me o n this (speculating here), but back in '97, wasn't that the same kind of fear being mentioned? Wasn't the perception that the Pats may be so solid on defense that they would let the air out of the ball a bit? Once they started so hot, wasn't the thought that "when they clinch, they will slow down?"Anarchy99 said:
I'm just asking because I kind of get the feeling that the personality and mindset of Bray, Hoodie, etc, is that they will step all the way through your throat with the gas pedal down if they can. After seeing all the lauding about the Broncos last season, I think if the Pats CAN look impressive on offense, they will.
Shutout
Footballguy
One of the old sayings in football is show me a pro-bowl corner and I will show you a pro-bowl DE, and vice versa. I think if Revis is healthy, the combo of him with Jones and Nink and Collins is going to present some filthy problems for opponents this year and, in turn, it's not far fetched to think there will be a good share of short field opportunities.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I am guessing you mean 07 not 97. And I don't think the 2014 offense has the bullets that the 07 team did. Brady also not in his prime and starting to decline. Not apples to apples IMO.
Shutout
Footballguy
I did mean '07. Thanks.
It's almost impossible to ever have a true "apples to apples" comparison in the NFL. Everything is so interdependent and so much changes so fast across the league.
I really don't know how any of us can say a guy is declining or out of his prime at the QB position. We look at age and assume. We don't know the conditions and/or injuries guys were playing with. We all (99% of us) assumed a 36, 37 year old Manning coming off injury was declining compared to a 28 version of himself and we were dead wrong. We wrote Kurt Warner off and then he had 3-4 awesome seasons. Point being, if there is one, its really hard to say that with any conviction at the QB position. We can see it in a RBs legs, a Wr's ability to do certain things. But there is so much going on with a QB, its hard for me to buy into a 34 year old being a shell of himself from a 32 version, or whatnot. I just don't think there is that much of a difference.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
speaking of pats' defense, I was checking it out just now at gridironwhatever
last year they had the pats ranked 5th in the first 8 games, but dropping to 23rd in the 2nd half of the season.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
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IheartGuinness
Footballguy
Don't know what to do about this guy. Would love to try and trade up for a better QB, but that's looking pretty hard right about now.
Jerry Curl
Footballguy
I'm not worried, this isnt a flash in the pan type QB who we are worried about not living up to hype, this is a 3 time Super Bowl winning elite QB. Once Gronk plays every snap and a WR other than Edelman emerges, we will see the Brady bunch return. My worry is the abysmal play calling on offense. Its not really the amount of pass to run plays called, just when they are called.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I'm not sure I would count on another WR emerging. Thompkins and Dobson are both still young, but seem hit or miss. Amendola cannot stay healthy and seems like an afterthought now. LaFell stinks.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I think this is a little overblown
the bulk of these were either chucks in the final seconds of the first half in the miami game, or trying to come back in 2 minute offense in the 4th quarter.
that said, it would be nicer if he had actually hit some of those, but it is what it is.
I think one of the problems is that the offensive line really hasn't been giving him the kind of platform he needs for that kind of throw, and he hasn't had much to work with downfield for receivers.
we have a couple rookie o-linemen working in that may help with the former, and I'm hopeful dobson can help with the latter.
I think it's fair to be concerned, but I'd hold rather than panic.
maybe scoop cousins if you can and don't already have a decent 2nd qb.
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Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
I'm most definitely worried about Tom Terrific. His arm seems to have lost some juice this offseason. Like he's pushing the ball instead of letting it rip. The falloff has to happen some day. I had a lot of faith in him this preseason, but at that age, skills can decline progressively quick. I am looking to sell now before he faces the Raiders. Like rotoworld said, if he can't tear up the Raiders, he may be done. Right now, enough owners out there still believe.
RhymesMcJuice
Footballguy
36 QB's have thrown at least two passes this year...
...Brady is dead last in YPA (5.1).
...Brady is dead last in YPA (5.1).
RhymesMcJuice
Footballguy
He'll be traded to a QB desperate team next year and Garoppolo will be the starter.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
The drop-off happened last year, but many were in denial, instead blaming it on his green WRs and giving him all of the credit for the Patriots still winning 12 games. To clarify, I still think Brady is a really good QB; he's still a borderline top 5 QB, cause he doesn't throw interceptions and he's still a guy I'd be scared of at the end of games. He just isn't the super terrific awesome QB he was for a decade. But hey, the guy is 37 now. Very few quarterbacks are as good at 37 as they were at 28 or 29.
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RhymesMcJuice
Footballguy
Jerry Curl
Footballguy
What I see here is what to expect from football guys. The panic on this site is unheard of. The Ellington drama for example. People thought he was gone for 6 weeks because of a radio guy and he has not even missed time. Get your head on straight people, its two weeks into the season, if you are looking to bail on Brady now, panic is your middle name.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
It's not panic. It's acknowledging the trend. Since the start of last season:
-Brady has thrown for less than 200 yards in 6 of 18 regular season games.
-Brady has thrown 1 or 0 TDs in 10 of 18 regular season games.
-Brady has thrown for less than 200 yards in 6 of 18 regular season games.
-Brady has thrown 1 or 0 TDs in 10 of 18 regular season games.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What if one was down on him after watching him play last season, and the first two games just confirm that belief?
VikingFrog
Footballguy
I've still yet to watch him play this year. But ten points a game isn't really cutting it for my fantasy likings.
Time to make a change.
Time to make a change.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Denial excuses....
Gronk has been limited
Oline is being coached up
Needed to establish run vs vikings
110 degrees
in miami
Gronk has been limited
Oline is being coached up
Needed to establish run vs vikings
110 degrees
in miami
If people were expecting 2011 Brady, then I don't know what they were thinking.
He played fine against the Vikings, just didn't have the attempts because the defense got 4 turnovers and a blocked kick for a TD. Brady has always struggled in Miami for whatever reason.
I'm not worried about Brady at all. He doesn't have that #1 QB upside anymore, but I think he'll still be a top-10 guy.
He played fine against the Vikings, just didn't have the attempts because the defense got 4 turnovers and a blocked kick for a TD. Brady has always struggled in Miami for whatever reason.
I'm not worried about Brady at all. He doesn't have that #1 QB upside anymore, but I think he'll still be a top-10 guy.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I think Brady is still a great NFL quarterback, but fantasy wise he is going back to his pre 2007 Brady. Most of the time he was around qb 8 to 12 and he is best server as a qbbc for fantasy purposes.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
well, people said the exact same stuff about him last year, and I actually didn't even bother to take him in my drafts for maybe the first time in years, but to be fair, he only had gronk weeks 7-14, and the well documented 'and the rest' in the other weeks.
week 7 - terrible production on 46 throws @jets
week 8 - terrible production on 22 throws v miami
gronk played about half the snaps in those games
in the following 5 games in weeks 9-14 (inc bye) he averaged
43 att/game
~370 yds/game
~8.6 ypa
~68% completion
with a total 12 td / 3 int
so, I'm not just splitting out some small sample, but if he's so old and terrible how did he do that?
did he actually get younger in the 2nd half of the season, or is it that this offseason aged him dramatically, just like last offseason?
in his very final game of the year, the game in which he was the oldest, he was on the road at denver, who had a pretty decent defense --- with no gronk, his primary receivers were edelman, amendola, and austin collie, who had been signed off the street in october, and subsequently cut and re-signed periodically throughout the season.
24/38 63% 277/1 7.3 ypa no picks + a rush td
is that supposed to be terrible, or are fantasy nerds just desensitized to anything short of 400/4?
week 7 - terrible production on 46 throws @jets
week 8 - terrible production on 22 throws v miami
gronk played about half the snaps in those games
in the following 5 games in weeks 9-14 (inc bye) he averaged
43 att/game
~370 yds/game
~8.6 ypa
~68% completion
with a total 12 td / 3 int
so, I'm not just splitting out some small sample, but if he's so old and terrible how did he do that?
did he actually get younger in the 2nd half of the season, or is it that this offseason aged him dramatically, just like last offseason?
in his very final game of the year, the game in which he was the oldest, he was on the road at denver, who had a pretty decent defense --- with no gronk, his primary receivers were edelman, amendola, and austin collie, who had been signed off the street in october, and subsequently cut and re-signed periodically throughout the season.
24/38 63% 277/1 7.3 ypa no picks + a rush td
is that supposed to be terrible, or are fantasy nerds just desensitized to anything short of 400/4?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Larry pointed out reasons to like Brady, but I pointed out the same stats to be concerned several pages ago. Brady's fantasy value at this point hingers on having a huge volume of passing attempts. As I said earlier, if the defense plays well, the Pats will run and run often. So people will have to gamble how well the defense plays and if they can run the football, because the days of airing the ball out and running up the score by design are gone. They may have games where Brady has to pass a ton to stay in games, but I still think those won't happen as much as they did last year.
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