1) only you think dyer is a top college rb. I think he was very overrated and rode cam Newton's coattails his freshman season to 6 ypc. His sophomore year down to 5.2(.8 worse than yeldon's worst season).
2) gerhart hasn't done anything in 2014
3) dyer has been kicked off of 2 college teams and was a backup the last year to a nobody.
The real question is why are you still wasting a roster spot on him vs calling others bush league for not taking him
Most people had him rated as a first round prospect after his first two seasons at Auburn. It wasn't until his off-field issues came into play that his talent ever really came into question. I think if you look at what happened last year they were working him into the mix before he got injured and was shut down for the remainder of the year. I don't know exactly when he got dinged, but based on some of the articles I've read it sounds like he was struggling with the injury for a while.
http://blogs.courier-journal.com/ulbeat/2013/12/03/michael-dyer-to-see-a-specialist-for-injury/
Louisville running back Michael Dyer will see a specialist in Philadelphia on Monday to get an evaluation of a nagging groin and hip injury thats limited him throughout the 2013 season.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/12/16/5218334/michael-dyer-injury-louisville-russell-athletic-bowl
Dyer, who
transferred to Louisville last summer, has been hampered for months by a nagging groin and hip injury.
So basically you have a guy with a 5 star high school reputation, two excellent seasons at Auburn, one season out of football, and one season essentially lost to integrating with the new team and getting injured. There are some concrete indicators of special talent in his past, but the spotty results over the past two seasons have caused people to forget all that. Hence the Gerhart comparison. Gerhart has a pretty intriguing background, but because he was basically out of the picture for several years he became a forgotten man. Contrary to what you said, he
has done something already in 2014. His market value has increased exponentially based on him signing to Jacksonville and being the clear frontrunner to start.
There is definitely something to be said for having a long memory and a lot of patience when it comes to players like this. Talent doesn't disappear over night. More often than not when he's been on the field, Dyer has been an impact player. Even last season in limited duty with dubious health he was still productive running the ball. Then you look at the physical talent. Lots of people hyped up Isaiah Crowell this year and talked about him like a potential steal, but Crowell was never a guy who figured to kill the combine. Dyer is. He's listed at 5'9" 215, but looks bigger than that to me. Extremely bulky frame, both in the
upper body and the
lower body. For a player with his body type, he can run quite fast too. Some examples of that
here,
here, and
here. He isn't an outright elusive back, but he's a guy who was basically born to play in the NFL. He fell out of the crib destined to be a RB on Sundays.
Looking down the checklist you have an elite pedigree (5 star prospect), excellent overall college production, and ideal physical tools for the NFL. I've been playing this game long enough to have learned a few tricks and sometimes you just see a situation where the community is whiffing on a player and opening the door for you to reap a big bounty just by making what's actually a pretty obvious play. You never know what can happen, but this certainly looks like one of those situations. This guy is free money at his nonexistent market value right now. Whether or not other people see it isn't really my concern. You can say,
but...but...but I don't think he's good! That's your opinion. Everyone is entitled to his opinion, but ultimately being right is what matters, not having everyone else agree with you.
I keep bringing him up in every devy thread not to pump up his value (I don't think I've ever offered him in a trade to anybody and he's not really available), but more so to provide the opinion for others so they can think about it for themselves and consider whether or not he might be an overlooked guy. I think devy rankings that treat him like a nonentity have it wrong and are doing readers a disservice in that regard. I'm trying to fill the gap just a little bit by being the most vocal cheerleader out there.
Of course you're his most vocal cheerleader:1) he's 5'9 215, which gives him a high bmi. Something you value more than most.
2) he's big and quick/fast, this is probably your FF "tell" in regards to rbs.
But as you've said you've been around long enough...well I know your strengths and weaknesses as well. Let's just use jstew, Michael, dyer,as the guys you've pumped up the most. All 3 have had lower body injuries, probably a result of all that weight and power. All 3 lack football instincts and change of direction abilities.
Dougie is the only guy I've agreed with you on, which is why I left him out.
But I don't think dyer is a great talent based on everything I've seen from him:
-he has a squatty build with great acceleration and decent speed. I would classify him as a quicker than fast type.
-dyer thrived with cam newton 6 ypc. But struggled without him. 5.1 ypc. Breaking that down further, his 4 toughest games in 2011(LSU, bama, fla, uga) he had 61 carries for 229 0 TDs 3.75 ypc.
-dyer ran a ton of sweeps and read options where he's running to the outside. I don't see a lot of running inside or traditional runs.
-when he gets to the 2nd level and is 1 on 1 with a defender, he sometimes doesn't know what to do(like seastrunk) and loses far too many of those situations. Elite guys win those situations based on power, speed, moves, something.
-i don't see much change of direction abilities, outside of bouncing outside, which affects hitting holes and making defenders miss
-5 career receptions in 3 seasons
-goes down easier than he should quite often
Overall I would classify dyer as a gets you what is there type of back, not much creativity there.
Now add in the drug issue( look in the NFL right now, nobody drafted crowell, lyerla, d Rogers...despite their talent) + age + lack of production without cam + his faults as a rb + injuries. He's going to star in the NFL? I'd lean more he's wasted a roster spot vs him ever starting 1 week for your FF team.
Below is an article this spring about how dyer probably won't be getting much playing time, based on the roster. If he's a top 5 rb as you say, this article wouldn't be even out there from ESPN of all places (not some guys blog)
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=acc&id=69514&src=desktop
5 star recruit: so was Kyle prater
Excellent college production: not really
Ideal physical traits: has size, quickness, not the rest
