Formulaic WR rankings.
Like
previous years, I'm predicting remaining career VBD using fairly simple formulas.
My two standard methods are:
Production (prod), where the formula is based only on age, VBD last year, and VBD the year before.
Draft, for players who have been in the NFL 2 years or less, where the formula also incorporates draft pick. (I have also included this year's rookie class, assuming that their draft pick matches
this consensus big board.)
This year, I have added a third method:
Decay, where a player's value is at worst 40% of what he was worth last offseason. This limits how quickly players like Michael Thomas, Courtland Sutton, or Alshon Jeffery can slide down the rankings after a bad or missed season. This was done ad hoc, because the rankings seem more plausible if I do this.
Players who are ranked by the decay method carry an implied asterisk indicating "use some judgment here", since some of them (like Sutton) pretty clearly should not have fallen this far and others (like Jeffery) pretty clearly should have fallen farther. On the whole I think it helps, especially for the top 100 (players with >25 predicted remaining career VBD), plus it means that I don't have to manually add those asterisks myself.
Age is as of 7/1/21, Prev is from
last offseason.
Value Player Age Method Prev
482 Justin Jefferson 22 draft (190)
467 Davante Adams 28.5 prod (372)
413 A.J. Brown 24 draft (178)
406 Tyreek Hill 27.3 prod (353)
366 D.K. Metcalf 23.5 draft (129)
358 Stefon Diggs 27.6 prod (249)
346 Ja'Marr Chase (pick 5) draft rook
344 CeeDee Lamb 22.2 draft (219)
327 Calvin Ridley 26.5 prod (439)
326 Brandon Aiyuk 23.3 draft (176)
320 Chris Godwin 25.3 prod (388)
312 Terry McLaurin 25.8 draft (142)
297 Devonta Smith (pick 8 ) draft rook
290 DeAndre Hopkins 29.1 prod (386)
274 Jaylen Waddle (pick 10) draft rook
255 Diontae Johnson 24.7 draft (113)
247 Allen Robinson 27.9 prod (205)
240 Deebo Samuel 25.5 draft (207)
240 Michael Thomas 28.3 decay (601)
231 Mike Evans 27.9 prod (349)
229 Keenan Allen 29.2 prod (264)
228 D.J. Moore 24.2 prod (386)
221 Tee Higgins 22.5 draft (146)
212 Marquise Brown 24.1 draft (211)
204 Tyler Lockett 28.8 prod (180)
199 Amari Cooper 27 prod (253)
185 Rashod Bateman (pick 23) draft rook
177 Cooper Kupp 28 prod (274)
174 Chase Claypool 23 draft (107)
167 Robert Woods 29.2 prod (234)
166 Will Fuller 27.2 prod (103)
164 JuJu Smith-Schuster 24.6 prod (120)
156 Kadarius Toney (pick 30) draft rook
155 Henry Ruggs 22.4 draft (256)
150 Laviska Shenault 22.7 draft (121)
146 Jerry Jeudy 22.2 draft (233)
144 DJ Chark 24.8 prod (271)
142 Curtis Samuel 24.9 prod (82)
140 Terrace Marshall (pick 35) draft rook
137 Rondale Moore (pick 36) draft rook
130 Jalen Reagor 22.5 draft (196)
124 Brandin Cooks 27.8 prod (58)
124 Elijah Moore (pick 41) draft rook
122 Tyler Boyd 26.6 prod (227)
122 Michael Gallup 25.3 prod (241)
108 Adam Thielen 30.9 prod (136)
108 Kenny Golladay 27.7 prod (230)
107 Courtland Sutton 25.7 decay (268)
104 Julio Jones 32.4 prod (253)
102 Michael Pittman Jr. 23.7 draft (143)
97 DeVante Parker 28.4 prod (148)
94 Corey Davis 26.5 prod (41)
92 Christian Kirk 24.6 decay (229)
90 Jarvis Landry 28.6 prod (183)
88 Jamison Crowder 28 prod (73)
86 Amon-Ra St. Brown (pick 63) draft rook
86 Robby Anderson 28.1 prod (44)
85 Dyami Brown (pick 64) draft rook
84 KJ Hamler 22 draft (113)
80 Sterling Shepard 28.4 prod (96)
78 Marvin Jones 31.3 prod (81)
77 Tylan Wallace (pick 72) draft rook
74 Odell Beckham 28.7 decay (184)
72 Van Jefferson 24.9 draft (94)
71 Amari Rodgers (pick 79) draft rook
70 Denzel Mims 23.7 draft (91)
64 D'Wayne Eskridge (pick 88) draft rook
58 Tutu Atwell (pick 94) draft rook
58 Bryan Edwards 22.6 draft (69)
57 Darius Slayton 24.5 draft (107)
57 Keke Coutee 24.5 prod (123)
57 Jakobi Meyers 24.6 prod (0)
56 Hunter Renfrow 25.5 draft (56)
55 N'Keal Harry 23.5 draft (106)
53 Devin Duvernay 23.8 draft (60)
51 Russell Gage 25.4 prod (0)
50 Seth Williams (pick 104) draft rook
48 Nico Collins (pick 106) draft rook
44 Mike Williams 26.7 prod (70)
44 Antonio Brown 33 decay (111)
42 Preston Williams 24.3 prod (75)
39 Jaelon Darden (pick 118) draft rook
36 John Ross 25.6 prod (69)
36 T.Y. Hilton 31.6 decay (90)
35 Julian Edelman 35.1 decay (88)
35 Mecole Hardman 24.3 draft (73)
35 JJ Arcega-Whiteside 24.5 draft (72)
34 Parris Campbell 24 draft (70)
34 Cole Beasley 32.2 prod (20)
33 Cornell Powell (pick 126) draft rook
33 Andy Isabella 24.6 draft (67)
32 Anthony Schwartz (pick 128) draft rook
31 Jalen Hurd 25.4 draft (64)
30 Nelson Agholor 28.1 prod (27)
30 Josh Palmer (pick 131) draft rook
30 John Brown 31.2 prod (71)
29 Sage Surratt (pick 133) draft rook
28 Dazz Newsome (pick 135) draft rook
28 Ihmir Smith-Marsette (pick 136) draft rook
27 Rashard Higgins 26.7 prod (31)
26 Tim Patrick 27.6 prod (0)
25 Miles Boykin 24.7 draft (52)
23 Dede Westbrook 27.6 prod (55)
21 Josh Imatorbhebhe (pick 149) draft rook
21 Alshon Jeffery 31.4 decay (53)
21 Breshad Perriman 27.8 prod (29)
21 Hakeem Butler 25.1 draft (43)
20 Gabriel Davis 22.3 draft (32)
20 Sammy Watkins 28 prod (40)
20 Tamorrion Terry (pick 153) draft rook
17 Cade Johnson (pick 159) draft rook
17 Dante Pettis 25.7 decay (43)
16 Chris Conley 28.7 prod (20)
15 Anthony Miller 26.7 decay (38)
15 Zay Jones 26.3 decay (37)
15 Golden Tate 32.9 decay (37)
14 Jonathan Adams Jr. (pick 169) draft rook
14 Shi Smith (pick 170) draft rook
13 Tyrell Williams 29.4 prod (17)
13 James Washington 25.2 decay (33)
13 Adam Humphries 28 decay (33)
13 Antonio Gandy-Golden 23.2 draft (25)
13 Geronimo Allison 27.5 decay (31)
12 Gary Jennings 24.3 draft (25)
12 Brennan Eagles (pick 175) draft rook
11 T.J. Vasher (pick 178) draft rook
11 Albert Wilson 29 decay (28)
11 Marlon Williams (pick 180) draft rook
10 Tre'Quan Smith 25.5 decay (26)
10 Riley Ridley 24.9 draft (21)
10 Marquez Stevenson (pick 183) draft rook
10 Dez Fitzpatrick (pick 184) draft rook
10 Joe Reed 23.5 draft (21)
10 Damonte Coxie (pick 185) draft rook