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ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (TE updated March 2021)


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Yea I agree mostly but Banger is right, Martin shouldn't be anywhere near the top 10

I literally would have no interest in him. He's running worse than Richardson has ever run. He's gotten more mileage from one season than I've seen.

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Yea I agree mostly but Banger is right, Martin shouldn't be anywhere near the top 10

I literally would have no interest in him. He's running worse than Richardson has ever run. He's gotten more mileage from one season than I've seen.

This is hyperbole, right?

Martin went three straight games under 4ypc before he hit it again last week. Richardson went EIGHTEEN straight.

I mean, Martin has been bad, but he's nowhere near Richardson levels yet.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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Yea I agree mostly but Banger is right, Martin shouldn't be anywhere near the top 10

I literally would have no interest in him. He's running worse than Richardson has ever run. He's gotten more mileage from one season than I've seen.

This is schtick, right?

Martin went three straight games under 4ypc before he hit it again last week. Richardson went EIGHTEEN straight.

No. He's running at a sub 3 clip this year and was 3.6 last year. Richardson was a 3.6 and 2.9. So my bad not worse but as bad as. Either way, no chance I want him at rb13.

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Yea I agree mostly but Banger is right, Martin shouldn't be anywhere near the top 10

I literally would have no interest in him. He's running worse than Richardson has ever run. He's gotten more mileage from one season than I've seen.

This is schtick, right?

Martin went three straight games under 4ypc before he hit it again last week. Richardson went EIGHTEEN straight.

No. He's running at a sub 3 clip this year and was 3.6 last year. Richardson was a 3.6 and 2.9. So my bad not worse but as bad as. Either way, no chance I want him at rb13.

He has 50 carries this year, not a lot to go on. And unlike Richardson, his peers have been bad behind the same line. Rainey has the one good start this year, and the one good one last year, but he's been AWFUL in 7 of his 9 starts.

Likewise, Martin's 3.6 last year was nothing like Richardson's. He had one REALLY bad game that brought down his average (27-45). In his other games he had 29-144, 20-88, 16-67, 11-47. Over 4.2ypc in four of his six starts last year. Again, Richardson was over 4.2ypc in 0 of his last 21 starts before last week.

Again, bad, but nowhere near Richardson levels of bad. We'll likely go the rest of our lives never seeing another player with a stretch as bad as the one Richardson had.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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Yea I agree mostly but Banger is right, Martin shouldn't be anywhere near the top 10

I literally would have no interest in him. He's running worse than Richardson has ever run. He's gotten more mileage from one season than I've seen.

This is schtick, right?

Martin went three straight games under 4ypc before he hit it again last week. Richardson went EIGHTEEN straight.

No. He's running at a sub 3 clip this year and was 3.6 last year. Richardson was a 3.6 and 2.9. So my bad not worse but as bad as. Either way, no chance I want him at rb13.

He has 50 carries this year, not a lot to go on. And unlike Richardson, his peers have been bad behind the same line. Rainey has the one good start this year, and the one good one last year, but he's been AWFUL in 7 of his 9 starts.

Likewise, Martin's 3.6 last year was nothing like Richardson's. He had one REALLY bad game that brought down his average (27-45). In his other games he had 29-144, 20-88, 16-67, 11-47. Over 4.2ypc in four of his six starts last year. Again, Richardson was over 4.2ypc in 0 of his last 21 starts before last week.

Again, bad, but nowhere near Richardson levels of bad. We'll likely go the rest of our lives never seeing another player with a stretch as bad as the one Richardson had.

Whatever. Don't care to debate Richardson vs Martin. Don't like either at all.

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Martin is a boom or bust option. He hasn't looked that good over his last 10 games (stretching back to last season). But Forte also had a bit of a sophomore slump and recovered from it. If Martin has a couple big games, then he could quickly jump back into the conversation alongside the current top 6 (which would be a two tier jump in my rankings). If he doesn't show signs of life, then he'll keep sliding down the rankings past guys like Ingram & Vereen (a couple of guys who also had rough stretches, and who have never done anything like Martin did as a rookie). I liked Martin coming into the league, and the NFL did too, and he had a strong rookie year; I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.

That's why I have Martin where I do, bunched among some young unproven 2nd rounders who have some promise but virtually no NFL track record (<300 career rushing yards).

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Martin is a boom or bust option. He hasn't looked that good over his last 10 games (stretching back to last season). But Forte also had a bit of a sophomore slump and recovered from it. If Martin has a couple big games, then he could quickly jump back into the conversation alongside the current top 6 (which would be a two tier jump in my rankings). If he doesn't show signs of life, then he'll keep sliding down the rankings past guys like Ingram & Vereen (a couple of guys who also had rough stretches, and who have never done anything like Martin did as a rookie). I liked Martin coming into the league, and the NFL did too, and he had a strong rookie year; I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.

That's why I have Martin where I do, bunched among some young unproven 2nd rounders who have some promise but virtually no NFL track record (<300 career rushing yards).

But forte didn't have a new regime that drafted their guy. Don't want to nitpick as you are clearly very good but that just screamed out to me. You may be right but I would much rather go in a different direction.

I think Martin is primed to lose his job this year.

Edited by Banger
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Martin is a boom or bust option. He hasn't looked that good over his last 10 games (stretching back to last season). But Forte also had a bit of a sophomore slump and recovered from it. If Martin has a couple big games, then he could quickly jump back into the conversation alongside the current top 6 (which would be a two tier jump in my rankings). If he doesn't show signs of life, then he'll keep sliding down the rankings past guys like Ingram & Vereen (a couple of guys who also had rough stretches, and who have never done anything like Martin did as a rookie). I liked Martin coming into the league, and the NFL did too, and he had a strong rookie year; I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.

That's why I have Martin where I do, bunched among some young unproven 2nd rounders who have some promise but virtually no NFL track record (<300 career rushing yards).

But forte didn't have a new regime that drafted their guy. Don't want to nitpick as you are clearly very good but that just screamed out to me. You may be right but I would much rather go in a different direction.

I think Martin is primed to lose his job this year.

That's true, but you also have to wonder how long that new regime is going to be around in Tampa with the way they're playing.

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Martin is a boom or bust option. He hasn't looked that good over his last 10 games (stretching back to last season). But Forte also had a bit of a sophomore slump and recovered from it. If Martin has a couple big games, then he could quickly jump back into the conversation alongside the current top 6 (which would be a two tier jump in my rankings). If he doesn't show signs of life, then he'll keep sliding down the rankings past guys like Ingram & Vereen (a couple of guys who also had rough stretches, and who have never done anything like Martin did as a rookie). I liked Martin coming into the league, and the NFL did too, and he had a strong rookie year; I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.

That's why I have Martin where I do, bunched among some young unproven 2nd rounders who have some promise but virtually no NFL track record (<300 career rushing yards).

But forte didn't have a new regime that drafted their guy. Don't want to nitpick as you are clearly very good but that just screamed out to me. You may be right but I would much rather go in a different direction.

I think Martin is primed to lose his job this year.

That's true, but you also have to wonder how long that new regime is going to be around in Tampa with the way they're playing.

So then what. Then you have Martin and sims with questionable value. Too many questions to be a 2nd round investment. Edited by Banger
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Martin is a boom or bust option. He hasn't looked that good over his last 10 games (stretching back to last season). But Forte also had a bit of a sophomore slump and recovered from it. If Martin has a couple big games, then he could quickly jump back into the conversation alongside the current top 6 (which would be a two tier jump in my rankings). If he doesn't show signs of life, then he'll keep sliding down the rankings past guys like Ingram & Vereen (a couple of guys who also had rough stretches, and who have never done anything like Martin did as a rookie). I liked Martin coming into the league, and the NFL did too, and he had a strong rookie year; I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.

That's why I have Martin where I do, bunched among some young unproven 2nd rounders who have some promise but virtually no NFL track record (<300 career rushing yards).

But forte didn't have a new regime that drafted their guy. Don't want to nitpick as you are clearly very good but that just screamed out to me. You may be right but I would much rather go in a different direction.

I think Martin is primed to lose his job this year.

I don't put that much weight on coaching staffs or competition. If a RB is good then he'll probably win the job.

Martin very well might lose his job this year. But Hyde & Michael haven't even won the job yet. With any of them you're gambling on upside.

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ZWK, great work man. Can you expand upon ranking Lamar Miller RB34? Looking good right now, no clear threat to touches, and 23 years old. I'm assuming you're thinking the situation he's in right now is temporary/ the Dolphins are going longer term through the 2015 draft, otherwise I'd think he'd be a lot higher up the list.

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ZWK, great work man. Can you expand upon ranking Lamar Miller RB34? Looking good right now, no clear threat to touches, and 23 years old. I'm assuming you're thinking the situation he's in right now is temporary/ the Dolphins are going longer term through the 2015 draft, otherwise I'd think he'd be a lot higher up the list.

You're right, I'm underrating Miller. A few good games after 2 disappointing seasons doesn't impress me all that much (especially when Moreno looked similarly good with his carries), and I wasn't super-high on him coming into the league. But his redraft value is probably up there with Jennings & Bradshaw, ahead of Oliver, and he has a decent shot at future value. He should at least be up at 28, maybe higher.

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With the draft in the books, it's time for some updated dynasty rankings.

As before, these are for a 12 team league, non-PPR, start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE, about 250 position players rostered.

I'll jump right in with running backs. My most recent RB rankings in this thread are from November, but "Prev" shows my ranking from immediately before the draft (which I did not have online). Age is as of 9/1/14. The tiers mean a lot - don't look only at the rankings.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

1 1 LeSean McCoy PHI 26.1 (1)

2 2 Jamaal Charles KC 27.7 (2)

2 3 Eddie Lacy GB 24.3 (5)

3 4 Doug Martin TB 25.6 (3)

3 5 Giovani Bernard CIN 22.8 (4)

3 6 Le'Veon Bell PIT 22.6 (6)

3 7 DeMarco Murray DAL 26.5 (7)

3 8 C.J. Spiller BUF 27.1 (8)

3 9 Adrian Peterson MIN 29.4 (9)

3 10 Montee Ball DEN 23.8 (10)

3 11 Matt Forte CHI 28.7 (11)

4 12 Marshawn Lynch SEA 28.4 (12)

4 13 Alfred Morris WAS 25.7 (13)

4 14 Christine Michael SEA 23.8 (14)

5 15 Carlos Hyde SF 23.0 (15)

5 16 Ryan Mathews SD 26.9 (18)

5 17 Trent Richardson IND 24.2 (19)

5 18 Bishop Sankey TEN 22.0 (26)

5 19 Shane Vereen NE 25.5 (21)

5 20 Ben Tate CLE 26.0 (25)

5 21 David Wilson NYG 23.2 (20)

5 22 Arian Foster HOU 28.0 (24)

5 23 Ray Rice BAL 27.6 (17)

6 24 Andre Ellington ARI 25.6 (28)

6 25 Zac Stacy STL 23.4 (16)

6 26 Tre Mason STL 21.1 (23)

6 27 Reggie Bush DET 29.5 (29)

6 28 Toby Gerhart JAX 27.4 (33)

6 29 Stevan Ridley NE 25.6 (30)

6 30 Jeremy Hill CIN 21.9 (27)

6 31 Knowshon Moreno MIA 27.1 (31)

6 32 Chris Johnson NYJ 28.9 (32)

7 33 Rashad Jennings NYG 29.5 (34)

7 34 Jerick McKinnon MIN 22.3 (50)

7 35 Devonta Freeman ATL 22.5 (53)

7 36 Bernard Pierce BAL 24.7 (37)

7 37 Mark Ingram NO 24.7 (46)

7 38 Marcus Lattimore SF 22.9 (35)

7 39 Charles Sims TB 24.0 (36)

7 40 Chris Ivory NYJ 26.4 (38)

7 41 Darren McFadden OAK 27.0 (39)

7 42 Jonathan Stewart CAR 27.4 (40)

7 43 Frank Gore SF 31.3 (41)

7 44 Pierre Thomas NO 29.7 (43)

7 45 Steven Jackson ATL 31.1 (44)

7 46 Lamar Miller MIA 23.4 (42)

7 47 Darren Sproles PHI 31.2 (47)

7 48 Joique Bell DET 28.1 (48)

7 49 Andre Williams NYG 22.0 (49)

7 50 Terrance West CLE 23.6 (56)

7 51 Danny Woodhead SD 29.7 (45)

7 52 Maurice Jones-Drew OAK 29.4 (51)

7 53 Denard Robinson JAX 24.0 (52)

7 54 DeAngelo Williams CAR 31.4 (54)

7 55 Dri Archer PIT 23.1 (70)

8 56 Knile Davis KC 22.9 (61)

8 57 Lache Seastrunk WAS 23.1 (22)

8 58 C.J. Anderson DEN 23.6 (58)

8 59 Khiry Robinson NO 24.7 (59)

8 60 Ahmad Bradshaw IND 28.5 (62)

8 61 Johnathan Franklin GB 24.9 (67)

8 62 Lance Dunbar DAL 24.6 (68)

8 63 Fred Jackson BUF 33.5 (71)

8 64 Isaiah Crowell CLE 21.7 (55)

8 65 Bryce Brown BUF 23.3 (65)

8 66 Donald Brown SD 27.4 (74)

8 67 Shonn Greene TEN 29.0 (60)

8 68 Kendall Hunter SF 25.0 (66)

9 69 Roy Helu WAS 25.7 (57)

9 70 LaGarrette Blount PIT 27.7 (69)

9 71 Andre Brown HOU 27.7 (70)

9 72 Vick Ballard IND 24.1 (72)

9 73 Latavius Murray OAK 23.5 (73)

9 74 De'Anthony Thomas KC 21.7 (75)

9 75 Ka'Deem Carey CHI 21.9 (79)

9 76 James White NE 22.6 (84)

9 77 James Starks GB 28.5 (76)

9 78 Jacquizz Rodgers ATL 24.6 (80)

9 79 Robert Turbin SEA 24.7 (81)

10 80 Travaris Cadet NO 25.6 (88)

10 81 Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL unr

10 82 Storm Johnson JAX (89)

10 83 Chris Polk PHI 24.7 (105)

10 84 Stephen Houston NE 22.9 (63)

10 85 Henry Josey PHI 23.0 (64)

10 86 Mikel Leshoure DET 24.4 (94)

10 87 Jonathan Dwyer ARI 25.1 (96)

10 88 Stepfan Taylor ARI 23.2 unr

10 89 Alfred Blue HOU 23.4 unr

10 90 BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN 29.2 (82)

10 91 George Atkinson III OAK 21.8 (87)

10 92 Bilal Powell NYJ 25.8 (95)

10 93 Brandon Bolden NE 24.6 (102)

10 94 Dion Lewis CLE 23.9 (83)

10 95 David Fluellen PHI 22.6 (86)

10 96 Robert Godhigh ATL 23.2 (85)

10 97 Benny Cunningham STL 24.2 (106)

10 98 Tyler Gaffney CAR 23.4 (90)

10 99 Daniel Thomas MIA 26.8 (91)

10 100 Ronnie Hillman DEN 23.0 (92)

10 101 Daryl Richardson STL 24.4 (93)

10 102 Dennis Johnson HOU 24.5 (97)

10 103 Mike Goodson NYJ 27.3 (98)

10 104 Cierre Wood BAL 23.5 (99)

10 105 Bobby Rainey TB 26.9 (78)

10 106 Mike James TB 23.4 (100)

10 107 LaMichael James SF 24.9 (101)

10 108 Isaiah Pead STL 24.7 (103)

10 109 Marion Grice SD 22.4 unr

10 110 Edwin Baker CLE 23.3 (77)

10 111 Joseph Randle DAL 22.7 (107)

10 112 Jordan Todman JAX 24.5 unr

10 113 Michael Ford CHI 24.3 unr

Some commentary on the tiering:

Tier 3 (RB4-11) are all kinda iffy. In a startup I'd be inclined to wait and grab whichever of these guys is going last (often Murray), rather than spending a 2nd round pick on any of them. Though the last 3 in the tier (Peterson, Ball, Forte) I'd only want if I was in win-now mode - the vast majority of their expected value comes in the next 2-3 seasons (for Ball because of his lack of special skill & his dependence on the Manning offense).

One way to approach the RB field this year is to try to collect several guys in tier 7 or better, without paying too much for the package. There are a bunch of guys who could make decent short-term stopgaps, or who are pretty good prospects if you're looking ahead a year or two.

The tier 10 guys mostly aren't worth owning in a league this size; try to find a better use for that roster spot. Rookie longshots are relatively highly ranked within this tier because of the urgency consideration (they have a chance to shoot a few dozen spots up the rankings if they impress right out of the gate).

On rookies:

See my pre-draft thoughts, and my elusiveness rankings (second & third year players are there too). Hyde was alone in my top tier immediately before the draft, and his situation & draft position are only slightly worse than Sankey's, so he remains my top rookie RB.

My thoughts on a few players:

7 DeMarco Murray: He's someone to target - a 26-year-old Pro Bowl caliber (top 10 fantasy) RB who a lot of people are afraid of. He has significant injury risk, but at least he doesn't have much "actually not very good" risk (which Martin, Bell, and Ball have) or committee risk (which Bernard & Spiller have).

13 Alfred Morris: Shanahan's offense was perfect for him. High risk & less upside potential going forward based on the system change and his lack of production in the passing game.

21 David Wilson: I liked him a lot coming into the league, and in many respects he has been less of a bust than Trent Richardson (not traded away by his team, ypc over 4, did not get clearly outplayed by mediocre teammates). His problems seem fixable, and he grades out so far more as an "incomplete" than as an on-the-field disaster.

48 Joique Bell: As impressive as he was last year, he's held back by the fact that it's rare for an offense to be able to support multiple fantasy-relevant backs. He is 28 years old, and Detroit has been adding weapons who are likely to take targets away from the RBs in the passing game.

53 Denard Robinson: He lit it up as a running QB in college, and at the combine, and the Jags liked him enough to draft him as a project within a few picks of where the Niners took Lattimore. Now he's bulked up and he'll get a full offseason at RB - I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do.

60 Ahmad Bradshaw: Never bet against a Colt coming off a neck injury. He is just 28 this year, and topped 4.5 ypc and 75 yfs/g each of the past two seasons, so reports of his demise seem premature. And it's a good thing that the injury that kept him out last year is completely different from his previous injuries.

72 Latavius Murray: Seems to be wildly overrated in a lot of places (e.g., 42 here). I liked him as a prospect last year relative to his 6th round draft spot, but he has shot up the rankings since then while doing nothing besides being on the same team as McFadden and Jones-Drew.

112 Jordan Todman: He boasts a career 3.3 ypc and is in a three-man competition for the coveted Jaguars backup RB spot.

You now have 11 rookie RBs in the top 45 where you previously only had 7. I'm interested in your take on how that number has grown and your opinion of the 2014 RB class and their potential. It looks as if you see a lot of potential in this group.

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ZWK, great work man. Can you expand upon ranking Lamar Miller RB34? Looking good right now, no clear threat to touches, and 23 years old. I'm assuming you're thinking the situation he's in right now is temporary/ the Dolphins are going longer term through the 2015 draft, otherwise I'd think he'd be a lot higher up the list.

You're right, I'm underrating Miller. A few good games after 2 disappointing seasons doesn't impress me all that much (especially when Moreno looked similarly good with his carries), and I wasn't super-high on him coming into the league. But his redraft value is probably up there with Jennings & Bradshaw, ahead of Oliver, and he has a decent shot at future value. He should at least be up at 28, maybe higher.

Miller has had 2 disappointing seasons?
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Really nice list, and really great work putting it all together ZWK.

I had a couple comments / questions regarding some of the rankings,

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 LeVeon Bell PIT 22.7 (8) -- Should his pot bust and certain suspension affect his #1 OA status? Edit: Will he even be suspended under the new agreement?

5 20 Ryan Mathews SD 27.1 (16) -- unable to stay healthy, might be out of a job come next year, has shown he can be effective but also shown he's injury prone, going on 28 should he perhaps be lower?

5 21 Montee Ball DEN 23.9 (7) -- has only really shown flashes here and there, has been outplayed by Hillman this year, the drop from 7 to 21 in your rankings, can you explain whether this was a lack of faith in his talent or something else?

6 28 Zac Stacy STL 23.6 (19) -- seems like he slept with Fisher's daughter the way he went from bell cow to bench warmer, does he have the talent in your eyes to succeed at some point as he's only going on 24?

6 30 Ahmad Bradshaw IND 28.7 (61) -- should at least be higher than Trent Richardson based on Trent Richardson playing like Trent Richardson

6 34 Lamar Miller MIA 23.6 (38) -- really should be #20 on your list if not anything else, he's never really been given the opportunity he's had now and he's performing

8 56 Bryce Brown BUF 23.5 (48) -- should he really be this low considering his youth and the certain future of the backs in front of him? I guess we'll know more over the coming weeks but I'd like your outlook on his talent / age / opportunity

Edited by ty247
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Martin is a boom or bust option. He hasn't looked that good over his last 10 games (stretching back to last season). But Forte also had a bit of a sophomore slump and recovered from it. If Martin has a couple big games, then he could quickly jump back into the conversation alongside the current top 6 (which would be a two tier jump in my rankings). If he doesn't show signs of life, then he'll keep sliding down the rankings past guys like Ingram & Vereen (a couple of guys who also had rough stretches, and who have never done anything like Martin did as a rookie). I liked Martin coming into the league, and the NFL did too, and he had a strong rookie year; I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.

That's why I have Martin where I do, bunched among some young unproven 2nd rounders who have some promise but virtually no NFL track record (<300 career rushing yards).

But forte didn't have a new regime that drafted their guy. Don't want to nitpick as you are clearly very good but that just screamed out to me. You may be right but I would much rather go in a different direction.

I think Martin is primed to lose his job this year.

That's true, but you also have to wonder how long that new regime is going to be around in Tampa with the way they're playing.

Lovie is going to get at least one more season - there's virtually no chance he only gets one year. With the talent in Tampa, do think they should be more competitive next year as long as Glennon develops or they bring in a better QB.

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Really nice list, and really great work putting it all together ZWK.

I had a couple comments / questions regarding some of the rankings,

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

1 1 LeVeon Bell PIT 22.7 (8) -- Should his pot bust and certain suspension affect his #1 OA status? Edit: Will he even be suspended under the new agreement?

I think that if he does see a suspension it is supposed to be for only two games, but even if it as four that shouldn't move the needle much on dynasty value.

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Bryce Brown: I think people tend to overrate his talent. The trend over his first 3 years has been his workload shrinking each season. He got beat out by Chris Polk in Philly, and then by Anthony Dixon in Buffalo. He has a chance right now with the injuries in front of him, but if he was going to be the RB of the future in Buffalo you'd think that they would've had him active on gamedays.

Le'Veon Bell: Missing a few games would be basically irrelevant for his ranking. The concern is with players who are likely to continue getting into trouble in the future, and Bell does not have much of a track record of bad decisions (unless you count the decision to play at 240 pounds).

Zac Stacy: Mason still has some question marks with pass blocking and ball security, and I thought that Stacy was solid last year. The Rams are talking about last week's playing time split as if it was a bit of a fluke, and Stacy will continue to be pretty significantly involved. If that's not true then he'll drop a lot more in these rankings. Actually, he probably should be a bit lower already.

Montee Ball: I've never been very high on his talent, but liked him a lot in fantasy when I expected him to have a couple years as Peyton Manning's top RB (see my comment here, for example). Now it looks like Hillman is a bit more likely to have that role this year. I still have Ball slightly ahead of Hillman because Ball (if Ball wins the job back) is more likely than Hillman (if Hillman keeps the job) to get the TDs in addition to the touches, and to keep the job next season.

Ryan Mathews: He has been a pretty good starting RB for most of his career. I think it's more likely than not that he'll lead the Chargers' backfield in touches once he's back, and be lead RB somewhere next season.

Ahmad Bradshaw: I see Bradshaw as fairly comparable to Rashad Jennings, in terms of their fantasy prospects (except for Jennings currently being out). Relatively old, strong starter for now, without the upside of Forte/Lynch/Foster, and with some heightened risk of injury or decline. Over the rest of this season Bradshaw is unlikely to see much of an increase in workload and will probably see a decline in TDs; next season there's some chance he'll leave the pretty ideal situation that he has in Indy.

Trent Richardson: He's looked better than last year, and has been particularly good in the passing game. I think at least some of his troubles were from being misused - he does better in a wide open offense than as a grind-it-out back in obvious running formations. He's just 24 and could still have a solid career in front of him, potentially on an elite offense.

Rookies: Mason, McKinnon, Oliver, and Crowell have moved up significantly since the offseason. Most of the other rookies have basically stayed put or dropped a little (except for some movement deep in the rankings, like Taliaferro). And no one has burst into the upper echelon, like Lacy & Gio did last year.

Quarterbacks: I'm focusing on one position at a time. I will say that I agree with Luck at #1, and I disagree with leaving Griffin off the list.

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Bryce Brown: I think people tend to overrate his talent. The trend over his first 3 years has been his workload shrinking each season. He got beat out by Chris Polk in Philly, and then by Anthony Dixon in Buffalo.

You might be right about Brown, but I'd be careful saying he got beaten out by Chris Polk. The two players came into the league during the same season. During their two years on the roster together in Philly, Brown had 190 carries and 21 catches. Polk had 11 carries and 4 catches. Polk had more carries than Brown in exactly two out of 32 possible games. I don't see how any of this constitutes Polk beating out Brown. Polk didn't even touch the ball as a rookie.

The Bills situation will be interesting to watch. I don't have a prediction for how it will play out, but certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Brown look better than Dixon with his touches and eventually nudge him out of the way. I think we're at the starting gate and not the finish line for this race, so I'd hesitate to say Dixon "beat out" Brown. That remains to be seen IMO.

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"Quarterbacks: I'm focusing on one position at a time. I will say that I agree with Luck at #1, and I disagree with leaving Griffin off the list."

I only listed the top 17, left a few guys out with potential. Don't know that I'd rank RG3 above Carr, Alex smith, or Manziel.

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"Quarterbacks: I'm focusing on one position at a time. I will say that I agree with Luck at #1, and I disagree with leaving Griffin off the list."

I only listed the top 17, left a few guys out with potential. Don't know that I'd rank RG3 above Carr, Alex smith, or Manziel.

You're unsure about Alex Smith vs. Robert Griffin III? Griffin had more VBD as a rookie than Smith has had in his entire career. Which is not a very impressive accomplishment for Griffin, since Alex Smith has 0 career VBD. Smith and RG3 had basically the same ppg last year (with a slight edge to one or the other depending on scoring system), and that was a career year from Smith and a not-so-hot year from RG3.

Bryce Brown: I think people tend to overrate his talent. The trend over his first 3 years has been his workload shrinking each season. He got beat out by Chris Polk in Philly, and then by Anthony Dixon in Buffalo.

You might be right about Brown, but I'd be careful saying he got beaten out by Chris Polk. The two players came into the league during the same season. During their two years on the roster together in Philly, Brown had 190 carries and 21 catches. Polk had 11 carries and 4 catches. Polk had more carries than Brown in exactly two out of 32 possible games. I don't see how any of this constitutes Polk beating out Brown. Polk didn't even touch the ball as a rookie.

The Bills situation will be interesting to watch. I don't have a prediction for how it will play out, but certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Brown look better than Dixon with his touches and eventually nudge him out of the way. I think we're at the starting gate and not the finish line for this race, so I'd hesitate to say Dixon "beat out" Brown. That remains to be seen IMO.

My mistake. I remembered there being a shift in workload from Brown to Polk last year, but that didn't actually happen. And Dixon being active as the 3rd RB isn't that informative, given special teams. So I'm probably underrating Brown a bit - I guess he belongs in high tier 8 or low tier 7.

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QB rankings seem to be in demand, so here's a supply. I also have midseason RB rankings here, but no published updates to my preseason WR & TE rankings.

Age as of 11/1/14. Prev from August 31. Rankings assume 12 starting QBs, and about 250 position players rostered.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Andrew Luck IND 25.2 (3)
2 2 Aaron Rodgers GB 31.9 (1)
3 3 Cam Newton CAR 25.5 (2)
3 4 Russell Wilson SEA 26.0 (6)
3 5 Drew Brees NO 35.8 (5)
3 6 Colin Kaepernick SF 27.0 (8)
3 7 Robert Griffin III WAS 24.7 (4)
3 8 Philip Rivers SD 32.9 (13)
4 9 Matthew Stafford DET 26.8 (7)

4 10 Peyton Manning DEN 38.6 (11)
4 11 Matt Ryan ATL 29.5 (10)
4 12 Tom Brady NE 37.3 (14)
4 13 Nick Foles PHI 25.8 (9)
4 14 Tony Romo DAL 34.6 (12)
5 15 Johnny Manziel CLE 21.9 (15)
5 16 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 22.0 (18)
5 17 Blake Bortles JAX 22.9 (17)
5 18 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 33.7 (20)
5 19 Jay Cutler CHI 31.5 (19)
5 20 Ryan Tannehill MIA 26.3 (16)
6 21 Andy Dalton CIN 27.0 (22)
6 22 Derek Carr OAK 23.6 (23)
6 23 Joe Flacco BAL 29.8 (31)
6 24 Eli Manning NYG 33.9 (27)
6 25 Carson Palmer ARI 34.9 (34)
6 26 Zach Mettenberger TEN 23.3 (38)
6 27 Michael Vick PHI 34.4 (28)
6 28 Austin Davis STL 25.4 unr
6 29 Geno Smith NYJ 24.1 (21)
6 30 Sam Bradford STL 27.0 (24)
7 31 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 23.0 (29)
7 32 Alex Smith KC 32.6 (32)
7 33 Brock Osweiler DEN 24.0 (30)
7 34 Mike Glennon TB 24.9 (35)
7 35 Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 32.0 (36)
7 36 Kyle Orton BUF 32.0 (44)
7 37 EJ Manuel BUF 24.6 (26)
8 38 Ryan Mallett HOU 26.4 (39)
8 39 Jimmy Clausen CHI 27.1 (46)
8 40 Ryan Nassib NYG 24.7 (37)
8 41 Kirk Cousins WAS 26.2 (49)
8 42 Jake Locker TEN 26.4 (25)
8 43 Mark Sanchez PHI 28.0 (41)
8 44 Logan Thomas ARI 23.4 (42)
8 45 Brian Hoyer CLE 29.1 (40)
8 46 Tom Savage HOU 24.5 (47)

The QB position is the most stable and predictable in fantasy, so not a ton of movement here.

Andrew Luck vaults to #1, and a tier of his own, as his performance on the field finally matches his reputation as a prospect. He has a 6+ year age gap on all of the other guys at the top of this year's fantasy rankings.

Rodgers holds steady in value relative to everyone else, but gets leapfrogged by Luck.

Griffin is one of the big fallers, but probably less in my rankings than in most. Three main concerns have come up with him (in declining order of importance): another injury raising further concerns about his durability (and his future usage as a runner), chatter about him not looking that good / Gruden not liking him, and 1.1 games of meh performance (similar to last year) before his injury. But fantasy QB is all about upside, and RG3 still has it, so he hasn't fallen that far. He may be system dependent, but I'll take a bet on him finding his way into the right system. He may be injury-prone, but I'll take a bet on him staying healthy. He's 24 with demonstrated top 5 upside - I'll take that over someone who is a safe bet to be a borderline QB1/QB2, or over someone in his mid 30s. He has a significant chance of busting, but the gap in fantasy value between Donovan McNabb's career and Eli Manning's is significantly larger than the gap between Eli Manning and Kyle Boller.

Calvin Johnson and Rob Gronkowski are both pretty good football players, and their teams' passing offense hasn't been as good when they weren't on the field at 100%. This observation works against Stafford, since it suggests that he won't be putting up big fantasy numbers much past age 30. But it works in favor of Brady, since it explains his inconsistent (and on average not-so-hot) performance over the past year and a half in a way that leaves us optimistic for the next couple years.

A lot of good QBs have been struggling a bit throwing the ball, including Newton, Brees, Wilson, and Foles. Foles is hurt the most by this, since he had the shortest track record of good performance. Brees is hurt the second-most, since he has the shortest shelf life and needs to have a sizeable gap on the pack in order to justify his high ranking at this age. Newton and Wilson just get very slight downgrades, which don't show up in the rankings (though Newton has lost his tier gap on the QBs behind him).

Manning and Rivers are both lighting it up, but have limited room to rise because of their age.

Romo's ranking is assuming that his recent injury isn't serious.

Three of the four early-drafted rookies have won the starting job, but have been mediocre or worse on the field. The fourth is still in waiting. The net result is basically no effect on their rankings. Bortles, who has done the worst, slips slightly behind Bridgewater.

Tannehill slips down the rankings as more time passes without him taking a step up from averageish.

Flacco, Eli, and Palmer are looking like the last of the solid QB2s who you could start this year if you've run into some QB trouble and want to deal with it on the cheap, and Vick seems poised to join them.

I don't know any great tricks for spotting the next Brady or Romo. The best way to land someone like that, I think, is to look to roster any QB for his first several starts (as long as the price is reasonable, and the roster space is available). Right now that's Mettenberger and Austin Davis (though Davis is now 7 games in, and off the pace you'd expect from a surprise superstar). Someone like Garoppolo is a better prospect than them, but these rankings assume a league where it's costly to have a guy sitting in a roster space for years while you wait.

Tiers 7-8 are guys I'd rather not roster. The ones who are current NFL starters are worth owning if you might need someone to start a game for you (or if QB market prices in your league make stopgap QBs expensive). The prospects are only worth rostering in deeper leagues where you have the space (or if QBs are extra-valuable in your league). WRs, RBs, and TEs are much better for churning, because things change much more quickly there.

Locker and Manuel seem to have been given up on by their NFL teams, which puts them into the QB tiers that I'd rather not roster in leagues this size. I wouldn't write them off completely in deeper leagues because there's still some shot at a reversal of fortune. Geno seems poised to join them, but is probably worth hanging on to for another week or two to see how this plays out.

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I like Austin Davis a lot more than your rankings. He has looked really promising at times playing with a sub-par cast. I don't get the love for Johnny Manziel at all. And I prefer both Bridgewater and Bortles to Manziel by a good margin at this point with Bortles in particular looking good and having a good group of young WRs to develop with.

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Curious to hear your take on Cam Newton. He has looked terrible lately and the only thing keeping his value afloat is his rushing ability. I absolutely hate all his throws and he is extremely frustrating to have him as an owner (clearly I am, at least in 1 of my dyno's). Russell is pretty much the same, but looks 10x better as a passer. Brees and Rivers are too low for my blood but I can't fault anyone for putting them that low either.

*Edit since somehow I skipped a paragraph when reading about Newton/Wilson. Still there's something about his "look" as a QB that just doesn't fit, I'll be looking to move him once I feel a peak in his value this season.

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Curious to hear your take on Cam Newton. He has looked terrible lately and the only thing keeping his value afloat is his rushing ability. I absolutely hate all his throws and he is extremely frustrating to have him as an owner (clearly I am, at least in 1 of my dyno's). Russell is pretty much the same, but looks 10x better as a passer. Brees and Rivers are too low for my blood but I can't fault anyone for putting them that low either.

This is a good posting. He has looked terrible while throwing the ball. I never saw the upside as legs will always run out. He needs to develop more as a pocket passer to match most peoples rankings as an FF dynasty QB. I doubt he reaches that level that most seem to rank him at.

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The Newton & Manziel questions basically have the same answer, which is that running is worth a ton for fantasy QBs. 5000/35 passing is worth the same as 3500/26 passing and 600/6 rushing.

Newton has been a top 5 fantasy QB in each of his first 3 seasons. He's pretty average as a passer (FO has his DVOA between -1.0% and +2.0% in each of his 4 seasons, not including yesterday's game), but dude can run. He's averaging 654/8.6 per 16 games for his career (633/6.4 if you exclude his rookie year). He's good enough as an NFL QB to keep his job, and big enough to hold up pretty well to the hits (and to keep getting a significant chunk of the team's rushing TDs). This year his numbers are down for a few reasons which I don't expect to persist for the rest of his career. The first few games he was running less because of injuries, but now he's running again (which is a good sign for his usage in the future, that they want him running). The past few games have been pretty ugly for him & that offense, but a big part of that has been the line: PFF has Carolina as the worst pass blocking team in the NFL. If his passing doesn't improve, then he'll gradually decline from a mid-range QB1 to a low-end QB1 over the next several years as he ages and runs less. But QBs his age often see improvements in passing, and he hasn't exactly had the best set of weapons to throw to.

Manziel is another guy who could run for 600 yards a year, and Cleveland liked him enough as an NFL QB to take him in the first round. His college passing stats were also not far behind Bortles & Bridgewater (including splits like deep passing & passing under pressure - see the various stats which I linked here).

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I like Austin Davis a lot more than your rankings. He has looked really promising at times playing with a sub-par cast. I don't get the love for Johnny Manziel at all. And I prefer both Bridgewater and Bortles to Manziel by a good margin at this point with Bortles in particular looking good and having a good group of young WRs to develop with.

Rushing production counts 2.5 times more than passing production in many/most leagues.

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Sure you can be ecstatic when guys like Newton/Manziel/RGIII run around for 100 yards 1 week, and that is exactly what puts them as overall top5 QB's at years end, but the inconsistencies are there for you to worry and second guess who should be behind him and guys like that. Give me a consistent 18-22 point game from Ryan (with a healthy o-line), Rivers, Brees, hell even Cutler over a guy who goes 19.14, 12.7, 12.58, 15.10, 34.06, 14.3, 5.24, 12.23 any day of the week.

Thats 13.06 points per week on average without the high 34 point. Including that high game, bumps him up to 15.68 per game. *not including week 1 he missed. Give him 13.06 for week 1 lets say and that puts him at QB11 for the year instead of 15. *All based on 1point for 25passing yards, 4 TD, -2 INT, 1p for 10 rushing yards, 6p rush TD which I think is standard.

I'm beginning to want absolutely no part of Newton or guys who are similar and rely on rushing and can't throw as well, for pure inconsistency.

Manziel on the other hand is completely off my list to ever own.

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Sure you can be ecstatic when guys like Newton/Manziel/RGIII run around for 100 yards 1 week, and that is exactly what puts them as overall top5 QB's at years end, but the inconsistencies are there for you to worry and second guess who should be behind him and guys like that. Give me a consistent 18-22 point game from Ryan (with a healthy o-line), Rivers, Brees, hell even Cutler over a guy who goes 19.14, 12.7, 12.58, 15.10, 34.06, 14.3, 5.24, 12.23 any day of the week.

Thats 13.06 points per week on average without the high 34 point. Including that high game, bumps him up to 15.68 per game. *not including week 1 he missed. Give him 13.06 for week 1 lets say and that puts him at QB11 for the year instead of 15. *All based on 1point for 25passing yards, 4 TD, -2 INT, 1p for 10 rushing yards, 6p rush TD which I think is standard.

I'm beginning to want absolutely no part of Newton or guys who are similar and rely on rushing and can't throw as well, for pure inconsistency.

Manziel on the other hand is completely off my list to ever own.

Consistency is pretty much irrelevant. The guy who scores more fantasy points will help you win more head-to-head games over the course of a season even if he's much less consistent, unless they're within a couple fantasy points of each other for the entire season. I ran some numbers on this at some point, and the result was something like: over the course of a season, an impossibly consistent player who scores the exact same amount every game is worth about 5 fantasy points more than a wildly inconsistent player who only has huge games & duds.

Also, if there is a difference in consistency between running QBs and pocket passers, it's pretty small. Since the start of 2012, Newton has had 5 games where he scored under 10 fantasy points (he's averaged 18.8 ppg). Brady has 5 (and 18.3 ppg). Ryan has 5 (and 17.3 ppg). Stafford has 6 (and 17.0 ppg). Wilson has 5 (and 17.9 ppg). Kaepernick has 4 since he took over as starter in mid 2012 (which puts him on pace for 5), and 17.4 ppg. Manning, Brees, and Rodgers have mostly avoided single digit games (they have only 5 between them), but they're also putting up bigger numbers across the board (about 3 ppg better than Newton, on the whole).

Edited by ZWK
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I like Austin Davis a lot more than your rankings. He has looked really promising at times playing with a sub-par cast. I don't get the love for Johnny Manziel at all. And I prefer both Bridgewater and Bortles to Manziel by a good margin at this point with Bortles in particular looking good and having a good group of young WRs to develop with.

Rushing production counts 2.5 times more than passing production in many/most leagues.

My league has equal points for rushing and passing yards for QB's.....which it now makes sense why I never understood the love for the Newton's of the world. It is completely foreign to me why you would reward a QB more points when running the ball versus throwing....but that is a whole different discussion.

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"Quarterbacks: I'm focusing on one position at a time. I will say that I agree with Luck at #1, and I disagree with leaving Griffin off the list."

I only listed the top 17, left a few guys out with potential. Don't know that I'd rank RG3 above Carr, Alex smith, or Manziel.

You're unsure about Alex Smith vs. Robert Griffin III? Griffin had more VBD as a rookie than Smith has had in his entire career. Which is not a very impressive accomplishment for Griffin, since Alex Smith has 0 career VBD. Smith and RG3 had basically the same ppg last year (with a slight edge to one or the other depending on scoring system), and that was a career year from Smith and a not-so-hot year from RG3.

RG3 is a high risk, high reward guy. Nobody should be "sure" about him right now.

That said, he'll bring more value in a trade and in most leagues I'd agree with that. I'm just not sure about him.

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Where do you rank the quarterbacks right now? Mine, to see where you disagree

Luck

Cam

Wilson

Rodgers

Peyton

Foles

Stafford

Brees

Rivers

Ryan

Kap

Romo

Bortles

Bridgewater

Dalton

Tannehill

Cutler

What has Rodgers done to cause him not to be 1 or 2?

nothing other than turning 31 next month. I listed tiers, didn't rank among the tiers.

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I guess that's where my philosophy for FF comes into play. For example in redraft I traded Jefferey/Martin for Brees after week 2. Now I know that isn't dynasty but the philosophy remains the same. I built my dynasty's around WR's and consistent RB's. Le'Veon Bell, Cutler, Alex Smith, Cecil Shorts (when healthy), Bowe who are all consistent options. Now I also have some boom/bust type of people M. Floyd, OBJ, Blackmon, L. Green, C. Michael (can you tell I'm rebuilding ha?) which I feel is a necessity but consistency at the QB position, which is the highest scoring position, so in theory it limits your floor for every week.

I prefer to have a consistent effort that actually puts me in the hunt to win my matchups, instead of losing by >10 every week. Give me a competitive team that will compete instead of an inconsistent one that may blow the roof off the scoreboard or lose by 50.

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QB rankings seem to be in demand, so here's a supply. I also have midseason RB rankings here, but no published updates to my preseason WR & TE rankings.

Age as of 11/1/14. Prev from August 31. Rankings assume 12 starting QBs, and about 250 position players rostered.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

1 1 Andrew Luck IND 25.2 (3)

2 2 Aaron Rodgers GB 31.9 (1)

3 3 Cam Newton CAR 25.5 (2)

3 4 Russell Wilson SEA 26.0 (6)

3 5 Drew Brees NO 35.8 (5)

3 6 Colin Kaepernick SF 27.0 (8)

3 7 Robert Griffin III WAS 24.7 (4)

3 8 Philip Rivers SD 32.9 (13)

4 9 Matthew Stafford DET 26.8 (7)

4 10 Peyton Manning DEN 38.6 (11)

4 11 Matt Ryan ATL 29.5 (10)

4 12 Tom Brady NE 37.3 (14)

4 13 Nick Foles PHI 25.8 (9)

4 14 Tony Romo DAL 34.6 (12)

5 15 Johnny Manziel CLE 21.9 (15)

5 16 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 22.0 (18)

5 17 Blake Bortles JAX 22.9 (17)

5 18 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 33.7 (20)

5 19 Jay Cutler CHI 31.5 (19)

5 20 Ryan Tannehill MIA 26.3 (16)

6 21 Andy Dalton CIN 27.0 (22)

6 22 Derek Carr OAK 23.6 (23)

6 23 Joe Flacco BAL 29.8 (31)

6 24 Eli Manning NYG 33.9 (27)

6 25 Carson Palmer ARI 34.9 (34)

6 26 Zach Mettenberger TEN 23.3 (38)

6 27 Michael Vick PHI 34.4 (28)

6 28 Austin Davis STL 25.4 unr

6 29 Geno Smith NYJ 24.1 (21)

6 30 Sam Bradford STL 27.0 (24)

7 31 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 23.0 (29)

7 32 Alex Smith KC 32.6 (32)

7 33 Brock Osweiler DEN 24.0 (30)

7 34 Mike Glennon TB 24.9 (35)

7 35 Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 32.0 (36)

7 36 Kyle Orton BUF 32.0 (44)

7 37 EJ Manuel BUF 24.6 (26)

8 38 Ryan Mallett HOU 26.4 (39)

8 39 Jimmy Clausen CHI 27.1 (46)

8 40 Ryan Nassib NYG 24.7 (37)

8 41 Kirk Cousins WAS 26.2 (49)

8 42 Jake Locker TEN 26.4 (25)

8 43 Mark Sanchez PHI 28.0 (41)

8 44 Logan Thomas ARI 23.4 (42)

8 45 Brian Hoyer CLE 29.1 (40)

8 46 Tom Savage HOU 24.5 (47)

The QB position is the most stable and predictable in fantasy, so not a ton of movement here.

Andrew Luck vaults to #1, and a tier of his own, as his performance on the field finally matches his reputation as a prospect. He has a 6+ year age gap on all of the other guys at the top of this year's fantasy rankings.

Rodgers holds steady in value relative to everyone else, but gets leapfrogged by Luck.

Griffin is one of the big fallers, but probably less in my rankings than in most. Three main concerns have come up with him (in declining order of importance): another injury raising further concerns about his durability (and his future usage as a runner), chatter about him not looking that good / Gruden not liking him, and 1.1 games of meh performance (similar to last year) before his injury. But fantasy QB is all about upside, and RG3 still has it, so he hasn't fallen that far. He may be system dependent, but I'll take a bet on him finding his way into the right system. He may be injury-prone, but I'll take a bet on him staying healthy. He's 24 with demonstrated top 5 upside - I'll take that over someone who is a safe bet to be a borderline QB1/QB2, or over someone in his mid 30s. He has a significant chance of busting, but the gap in fantasy value between Donovan McNabb's career and Eli Manning's is significantly larger than the gap between Eli Manning and Kyle Boller.

Calvin Johnson and Rob Gronkowski are both pretty good football players, and their teams' passing offense hasn't been as good when they weren't on the field at 100%. This observation works against Stafford, since it suggests that he won't be putting up big fantasy numbers much past age 30. But it works in favor of Brady, since it explains his inconsistent (and on average not-so-hot) performance over the past year and a half in a way that leaves us optimistic for the next couple years.

A lot of good QBs have been struggling a bit throwing the ball, including Newton, Brees, Wilson, and Foles. Foles is hurt the most by this, since he had the shortest track record of good performance. Brees is hurt the second-most, since he has the shortest shelf life and needs to have a sizeable gap on the pack in order to justify his high ranking at this age. Newton and Wilson just get very slight downgrades, which don't show up in the rankings (though Newton has lost his tier gap on the QBs behind him).

Manning and Rivers are both lighting it up, but have limited room to rise because of their age.

Romo's ranking is assuming that his recent injury isn't serious.

Three of the four early-drafted rookies have won the starting job, but have been mediocre or worse on the field. The fourth is still in waiting. The net result is basically no effect on their rankings. Bortles, who has done the worst, slips slightly behind Bridgewater.

Tannehill slips down the rankings as more time passes without him taking a step up from averageish.

Flacco, Eli, and Palmer are looking like the last of the solid QB2s who you could start this year if you've run into some QB trouble and want to deal with it on the cheap, and Vick seems poised to join them.

I don't know any great tricks for spotting the next Brady or Romo. The best way to land someone like that, I think, is to look to roster any QB for his first several starts (as long as the price is reasonable, and the roster space is available). Right now that's Mettenberger and Austin Davis (though Davis is now 7 games in, and off the pace you'd expect from a surprise superstar). Someone like Garoppolo is a better prospect than them, but these rankings assume a league where it's costly to have a guy sitting in a roster space for years while you wait.

Tiers 7-8 are guys I'd rather not roster. The ones who are current NFL starters are worth owning if you might need someone to start a game for you (or if QB market prices in your league make stopgap QBs expensive). The prospects are only worth rostering in deeper leagues where you have the space (or if QBs are extra-valuable in your league). WRs, RBs, and TEs are much better for churning, because things change much more quickly there.

Locker and Manuel seem to have been given up on by their NFL teams, which puts them into the QB tiers that I'd rather not roster in leagues this size. I wouldn't write them off completely in deeper leagues because there's still some shot at a reversal of fortune. Geno seems poised to join them, but is probably worth hanging on to for another week or two to see how this plays out.

You have Rodgers a year older than he is.

your point on RG3 is spot-on, his rankings will probably have the widest range aside from maybe Manziel. We can justify putting him top 10 but I have a real hard time putting him in a tier above Stafford or equal to Wilson or Cam right now. That could change in a few weeks.

Probably the biggest disparity in your rankings to mine is philosophy and size of league. In a 12 team league it's easier to take a guy like RG3 and get a viable backup for safety but in larger leagues that becomes a much riskier proposition. in a 20-32 team league that could kill your team.

I don't get putting Metz, Geno or Vick in the same tier as Dalton, Carr, Flacco or Eli. Those guys fall to tier 7 while Brock rises to tier 6 IMO.

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I ran some numbers on this at some point, and the result was something like: over the course of a season, an impossibly consistent player who scores the exact same amount every game is worth about 5 fantasy points more than a wildly inconsistent player who only has huge games & duds.

Interesting. I knew this was true, but it's nice to see it quantified.

Five points is worth a 6% chance of a win over the whole season. So the impossibly consistent player wins you one extra game every ~17 years.

Points matter. Consistency doesn't.

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Where do you rank the quarterbacks right now? Mine, to see where you disagree

Luck

Cam

Wilson

Rodgers

Peyton

Foles

Stafford

Brees

Rivers

Ryan

Kap

Romo

Bortles

Bridgewater

Dalton

Tannehill

Cutler

What has Rodgers done to cause him not to be 1 or 2?

nothing other than turning 31 next month. I listed tiers, didn't rank among the tiers.

Gotcha. I like your rankings but think Rodgers deserves his own tier. I don't see Wilson/Cam being close in production. 31 means we probably have at least 6 more elite years from him with a chance for more. I don't see Wilson/Cam being close in production but I play in leagues were passing/rushing yards are the same for QBs.

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I ran some numbers on this at some point, and the result was something like: over the course of a season, an impossibly consistent player who scores the exact same amount every game is worth about 5 fantasy points more than a wildly inconsistent player who only has huge games & duds.

Interesting. I knew this was true, but it's nice to see it quantified.

Five points is worth a 6% chance of a win over the whole season. So the impossibly consistent player wins you one extra game every ~17 years.

Points matter. Consistency doesn't.

I wrote a takedown of the myth of consistency several weeks back, citing, among other things, ZWK's posts on the matter.

In addition to the fact that consistency isn't valuable, it's also not consistent or predictable. So even if consistency was intrinsically valuable, we'd have no way of knowing in advance which players would be consistent and which would not.

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I wrote a takedown of the myth of consistency several weeks back, citing, among other things, ZWK's posts on the matter.

In addition to the fact that consistency isn't valuable, it's also not consistent or predictable. So even if consistency was intrinsically valuable, we'd have no way of knowing in advance which players would be consistent and which would not.

Agree with all that. The fact that otherwise reputable sites post crank/consistency scores as if they have any shred of value has been sand in my pants for a long time.

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You have Rodgers a year older than he is.

your point on RG3 is spot-on, his rankings will probably have the widest range aside from maybe Manziel. We can justify putting him top 10 but I have a real hard time putting him in a tier above Stafford or equal to Wilson or Cam right now. That could change in a few weeks.

Probably the biggest disparity in your rankings to mine is philosophy and size of league. In a 12 team league it's easier to take a guy like RG3 and get a viable backup for safety but in larger leagues that becomes a much riskier proposition. in a 20-32 team league that could kill your team.

I don't get putting Metz, Geno or Vick in the same tier as Dalton, Carr, Flacco or Eli. Those guys fall to tier 7 while Brock rises to tier 6 IMO.

Good comments.

You're right that league format makes a big difference. Younger & safer quarterbacks are much more valuable in leagues that start more QBs. In a 10-team dynasty league I traded Wilson for Griffin this offseason; in a 14-team superflex I drafted Wilson over Griffin. QB value is also less concentrated at the top in leagues that start more of them. In a league that starts 12 QBs, a QB who doesn't run much basically has to be a top 10 passer to have much fantasy value (though occasionally guys will get lucky or throw for a ton of volume), so average QBs like Dalton just aren't worth that much. In larger leagues where Dalton is a useful fantasy starter, it might make sense to take him over guys like Romo (old) and Manziel (risky).

I could've included more tiers in these rankings. Right now the tiers show where I see a large gap between two players who I have ranked right next to each other. But in most cases, the gap between a player at the top of a tier and the one at the bottom of the same tier is at least as big as the gap between tiers. Newton vs. Griffin is not a close call for me, and neither is Stafford vs. Romo, or Carr vs. Davis.

I've fixed Rodgers' age in my spreadsheet. I see that this sentence of mine is also wrong by three months: "[Luck] has a 6+ year age gap on all of the other guys at the top of this year's fantasy rankings."

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In honor of the holiday, here are my special All Saints' Day cross-positional dynasty rankings (non-ppr):

Tr Rk Pos Player Tm Age
1 1 TE Jimmy Graham NO 28.0
2 2 RB Mark Ingram NO 24.9
2 3 QB Drew Brees NO 35.8
2 4 WR Brandin Cooks NO 21.1
3 5 RB Khiry Robinson NO 24.9
4 6 WR Marques Colston NO 31.4
4 7 RB Pierre Thomas NO 29.9
5 8 RB Travaris Cadet NO 25.8
5 9 WR Kenny Stills NO 22.5

Edited by ZWK
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Here are some WR rankings. Age as of 11/1/14. Prev shows my August 31 rankings. These are for leagues with no PPR, 36 starting WRs, and about 250 position players rostered.

I'm about to leave on a trip for work so I have very little commentary now, and I might not get a chance to reply to comments, but I'll post these anyways.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Calvin Johnson DET 29.1 (1)
1 2 Demaryius Thomas DEN 26.9 (3)
1 3 A.J. Green CIN 26.3 (2)
2 4 Dez Bryant DAL 26.0 (4)
2 5 Julio Jones ATL 25.8 (5)
3 6 Antonio Brown PIT 26.3 (10)
3 7 Alshon Jeffery CHI 24.7 (6)
3 8 Jordy Nelson GB 29.5 (8)
4 9 T.Y. Hilton IND 25.0 (21)
4 10 Sammy Watkins BUF 21.4 (12)
4 11 Randall Cobb GB 24.3 (11)
5 12 Brandon Marshall CHI 30.6 (7)
5 13 Mike Evans TB 21.2 (14)
5 14 Percy Harvin NYJ 26.5 (9)
5 15 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 22.4 (28)
5 16 Brandin Cooks NO 21.1 (19)
5 17 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 23.8 (25)
5 18 Jeremy Maclin PHI 26.5 (35)
5 19 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 22.0 (23)
5 20 Davante Adams GB 21.9 (24)
5 21 Josh Gordon CLE 23.6 (29)
5 22 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 27.6 (40)
5 23 DeSean Jackson WAS 27.9 (22)
5 24 Michael Floyd ARI 25.0 (15)
5 25 Pierre Garcon WAS 28.3 (20)

5 26 Keenan Allen SD 22.5 (16)
6 27 Michael Crabtree SF 27.2 (18)
6 28 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 23.6 (17)
6 29 Mike Wallace MIA 28.3 (43)
6 30 Golden Tate DET 26.3 (51)
6 31 Tavon Austin STL 23.6 (27)
6 32 Victor Cruz NYG 28.0 (13)
6 33 Vincent Jackson TB 31.8 (26)
6 34 Kendall Wright TEN 25.0 (34)
6 35 Terrance Williams DAL 25.1 (50)
6 36 Allen Robinson JAX 21.2 (41)
6 37 Torrey Smith BAL 25.8 (30)
6 38 Justin Hunter TEN 23.5 (32)
6 39 Andre Johnson HOU 33.3 (33)
6 40 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 31.2 (31)
6 41 Jordan Matthews PHI 22.3 (36)
6 42 Marqise Lee JAX 23.0 (38)
6 43 Eric Decker NYJ 27.7 (37)
6 44 Cody Latimer DEN 22.1 (42)
6 45 Justin Blackmon JAX 24.8 (45)
7 46 Donte Moncrief IND 21.3 (48)
7 47 Martavis Bryant PIT 22.9 (74)
7 48 Steve Smith BAL 35.6 (89)
7 49 Brian Quick STL 25.4 (77)
7 50 Brandon LaFell NE 28.0 (99)
7 51 Roddy White ATL 33.0 (39)
7 52 Rueben Randle NYG 23.5 (63)
7 53 Julian Edelman NE 28.5 (49)
7 54 Paul Richardson SEA 22.6 (52)
7 55 Cecil Shorts JAX 26.9 (44)
7 56 John Brown ARI 24.6 (70)
7 57 Steve Johnson SF 28.3 (73)
8 58 Wes Welker DEN 33.5 (46)
8 59 Marques Colston NO 31.4 (47)
8 60 Doug Baldwin SEA 27.1 (75)
8 61 Marvin Jones CIN 24.7 (66)
8 62 Andre Holmes OAK 26.4 (72)
8 63 Andrew Hawkins CLE 28.7 (86)
8 64 Markus Wheaton PIT 23.7 (54)
8 65 Stedman Bailey STL 24.0 (59)
8 66 Reggie Wayne IND 36.0 (64)
8 67 Mohamed Sanu CIN 25.2 (121)
8 68 James Jones OAK 30.6 (84)
8 69 Malcom Floyd SD 33.2 (85)
9 70 Jarvis Landry MIA 21.9 (87)
9 71 Allen Hurns JAX 23.0 (78)
9 72 Dwayne Bowe KC 30.1 (57)
9 73 Danny Amendola NE 29.0 (55)
9 74 Robert Woods BUF 22.6 (60)
9 75 Aaron Dobson NE 23.4 (58)
9 76 Hakeem Nicks IND 26.8 (56)
9 77 Greg Jennings MIN 31.1 (61)
9 78 Mike Williams BUF 27.5 (62)
9 79 Kenny Britt STL 26.1 (53)
9 80 Josh Huff PHI 23.1 (67)
9 81 Jeff Janis GB 23.4 (71)
9 82 Jermaine Kearse SEA 24.8 (83)
9 83 Kenny Stills NO 22.5 (65)
9 84 Corey Washington NYG 22.9 (79)

9 85 Anquan Boldin SF 34.1 (82)
9 86 Eddie Royal SD 28.5 unr
9 87 Rod Streater OAK 26.8 (81)
9 88 Riley Cooper PHI 27.2 (69)
9 89 Marquess Wilson CHI 22.1 (92)
9 90 Jared Abbrederis GB 23.9 (96)

Just a couple brief comments:

There's an interesting group of situation-dependent WR1s who aren't signed long-term: Hilton, Cobb, Maclin, and Sanders. My current impression as that Hilton & Maclin are most likely to be re-signed. Hilton & Cobb are most likely to keep up WR1 (or at least high-end WR2) stats long term if they are re-signed, thanks to Luck & Rodgers. Manning is old, and Maclin doesn't have an elite QB and could easily lose his go-to role (much like Garcon did). I'd also give Hilton the edge over the other 3 on talent (ignoring situation).

Guess who is currently leading the NFL in yards per route run (min 100 routes)? Hint: he has only 116 routes (most of the leaderboard has about 300). The answer is WR57 in my rankings. He's currently his team's third receiver, but one of the guys ahead of him is in the last year of his contract and the other is getting up there in years.

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Guess who is currently leading the NFL in yards per route run (min 100 routes)? Hint: he has only 116 routes (most of the leaderboard has about 300). The answer is WR57 in my rankings. He's currently his team's third receiver, but one of the guys ahead of him is in the last year of his contract and the other is getting up there in years.

Does that stat really mean anything? Has it been useful in identifying future stars? Just don't see any reason to get excited over the answer.

Gordon seems too low, even with his issues. Although I would agree on tier, he's just on top of tier 5 IMO.

Landry and Bailey would be higher on my list too.

I'd have Brown in tier 2, but that's just nitpicking.

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Guess who is currently leading the NFL in yards per route run (min 100 routes)? Hint: he has only 116 routes (most of the leaderboard has about 300). The answer is WR57 in my rankings. He's currently his team's third receiver, but one of the guys ahead of him is in the last year of his contract and the other is getting up there in years.

Does that stat really mean anything? Has it been useful in identifying future stars? Just don't see any reason to get excited over the answer.

Guys that have a high YPRR tend to get more playing time. I'm not really high on him, but I expect him to be the #2 next year after Crabtree leaves.

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Guess who is currently leading the NFL in yards per route run (min 100 routes)? Hint: he has only 116 routes (most of the leaderboard has about 300). The answer is WR57 in my rankings. He's currently his team's third receiver, but one of the guys ahead of him is in the last year of his contract and the other is getting up there in years.

Does that stat really mean anything? Has it been useful in identifying future stars? Just don't see any reason to get excited over the answer.

Guys that have a high YPRR tend to get more playing time. I'm not really high on him, but I expect him to be the #2 next year after Crabtree leaves.

Which is really 3 behind VD. Not worth a lot in most leagues.

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  • ZWK changed the title to ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (TE updated March 2021)

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