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ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)


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I've been looking over historical TE VBD from the past 30 years. Three patterns jumped out: 1. How top-heavy the position is. A few guys account for a large fraction of all fantasy value. Last ye

Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming PPR, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 3/24/18. Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev 1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.

WR rankings after 4.1 weeks. PPR, start 3 WR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 10/8/20. Prev from my unpublished draft rankings 9/9/20 (which weren't fully up-to-date); my last posted ra

1 hour ago, Tool said:

Don't quit your day job.

:shrug:Let's play "pick the guy who'll generate the most career VBD from today forward" from within his top 7. I'll give you your choice of any 2 and take the field at even odds.

Should be easy money, right?

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14 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:
15 hours ago, ZWK said:

Tyrod Taylor and his tier - I'm not all that confident about the rankings within this tier; it's possible that I'll shake them up significantly over the offseason. Things I like about Taylor: he put up fantasy starter's numbers this year, he's had good advanced stats (e.g., PFF grade), he seems likely to be an NFL starter next year, and he has been in a situation that seems not-so-good for a QB's passing numbers. Things I don't like about him: his team might let him go elsewhere (which is pretty much always a bad sign about a player) and he's going to be a 28-year-old whose value has depended heavily on running.

This sounds like you're describing a guy you have ranked around 20, not a guy ranked in the top 12 ahead of 3 of last year's top 5 QBs including one that is essentially the same age as him.

Here are the top fantasy QBs over the past two seasons, sorted by ppg. Can you guess how many QBs are ahead of Taylor in ppg over the past two years, but behind him in my rankings?

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10 hours ago, ZWK said:
On 2/17/2017 at 11:34 AM, FreeBaGeL said:
On 2/17/2017 at 10:58 AM, ZWK said:

Tyrod Taylor and his tier - I'm not all that confident about the rankings within this tier; it's possible that I'll shake them up significantly over the offseason. Things I like about Taylor: he put up fantasy starter's numbers this year, he's had good advanced stats (e.g., PFF grade), he seems likely to be an NFL starter next year, and he has been in a situation that seems not-so-good for a QB's passing numbers. Things I don't like about him: his team might let him go elsewhere (which is pretty much always a bad sign about a player) and he's going to be a 28-year-old whose value has depended heavily on running.

This sounds like you're describing a guy you have ranked around 20, not a guy ranked in the top 12 ahead of 3 of last year's top 5 QBs including one that is essentially the same age as him.

Here are the top fantasy QBs over the past two seasons, sorted by ppg. Can you guess how many QBs are ahead of Taylor in ppg over the past two years, but behind him in my rankings?

It's also worth noting that "top 5" is not necessarily that meaningful a distinction. Cousins was QB5 in total fpts for the season (though QB6 by VBD if you base it on ppg), and he was worth half as much as QB3 Drew Brees and less than 1/3 as much as QB1 Aaron Rodgers. Andrew Luck, who was in the spot ahead of Cousins this season, was worth more VBD this season than Cousins has been worth for his entire career.

In my eyes, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees are on their own tier for redraft (though 2 of them are ranked significantly lower in dynasty because they'll be 38+ years old next season). The other players who have the best chance of producing at that level next year are all in my top 10, ahead of Taylor (Luck, Wilson, Ryan, Newton, Roethlisberger). The other QBs in my top 20 are all either solid mid-career guys or young prospects with some promise.

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14 hours ago, ZWK said:

It's also worth noting that "top 5" is not necessarily that meaningful a distinction. Cousins was QB5 in total fpts for the season (though QB6 by VBD if you base it on ppg), and he was worth half as much as QB3 Drew Brees and less than 1/3 as much as QB1 Aaron Rodgers. Andrew Luck, who was in the spot ahead of Cousins this season, was worth more VBD this season than Cousins has been worth for his entire career.

In my eyes, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees are on their own tier for redraft (though 2 of them are ranked significantly lower in dynasty because they'll be 38+ years old next season). The other players who have the best chance of producing at that level next year are all in my top 10, ahead of Taylor (Luck, Wilson, Ryan, Newton, Roethlisberger). The other QBs in my top 20 are all either solid mid-career guys or young prospects with some promise.

What do you think about Bortles potential to perform at a high level in ff? His performance in real life was disappointing but in 16 he was still a top 10 ff QB (perhaps depending on your scoring). I'm not sure what to make of milanovich (qb coach), coming from the CFL is probably not a high percentage play but Hackett should be better in year 2 and marrone seems like am improvement over Bradley.  Imo, Bortles should be swapped with Taylor as he has top 5 potential and he will at least have a job in 17.  If the top 10 are taken and you want to take a risk, Bortles or Wentz are the guys I'm taking. 

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7 hours ago, FUBAR said:

What do you think about Bortles potential to perform at a high level in ff? His performance in real life was disappointing but in 16 he was still a top 10 ff QB (perhaps depending on your scoring). I'm not sure what to make of milanovich (qb coach), coming from the CFL is probably not a high percentage play but Hackett should be better in year 2 and marrone seems like am improvement over Bradley.  Imo, Bortles should be swapped with Taylor as he has top 5 potential and he will at least have a job in 17.  If the top 10 are taken and you want to take a risk, Bortles or Wentz are the guys I'm taking. 

I was relatively down on Bortles even before this season, since his big fantasy year seemed like a fluke where a not-that-good quarterbacking season translated into a surprisingly high number of fantasy points. I had him behind Tyrod & Dalton even then, and ranked him as high as I did mainly because he was a young high draft pick who still had a chance to develop into a better QB. This was discussed a fair amount in this thread last offseason, e.g. here.

After Bortles's lousy 2016 season I think that his chances of developing into a good NFL QB have dropped significantly, so I've dropped him pretty far in my rankings.

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Post-draft running back rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 2/7/17.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    David Johnson    ARI    25.7    (1)
1    2    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    22.1    (2)
1    3    LeVeon Bell    PIT    25.5    (3)
2    4    Leonard Fournette    JAX    22.6    rook
2    5    Todd Gurley    RAM    23.1    (4)
2    6    Christian McCaffrey    CAR    21.2    rook
2    7    Melvin Gordon    LAC    24.4    (5)
3    8    Devonta Freeman    ATL    25.5    (6)
3    9    Joe Mixon    CIN    21.1    rook
3    10    Jordan Howard    CHI    22.8    (8)
3    11    Dalvin Cook    MIN    22.1    rook
3    12    Jay Ajayi    MIA    24.2    (11)
3    13    Carlos Hyde    SF    25.9    (7)
3    14    Derrick Henry    TEN    23.1    (9)
3    15    Alvin Kamara    NO    22.1    rook
3    16    Lamar Miller    HOU    26.4    (10)
3    17    LeSean McCoy    BUF    29.1    (12)
4    18    Ameer Abdullah    DET    24.2    (13)
4    19    Tevin Coleman    ATL    24.4    (17)
4    20    DeMarco Murray    TEN    29.5    (21)
5    21    C.J. Anderson    DEN    26.6    (15)
5    22    C.J. Prosise    SEA    23.3    (20)
5    23    Kareem Hunt    KC    22.1    rook
5    24    Isaiah Crowell    CLE    24.6    (30)
5    25    Mark Ingram    NO    27.7    (14)
5    26    Giovani Bernard    CIN    25.8    (16)
5    27    Spencer Ware    KC    25.8    (22)
5    28    Theo Riddick    DET    26.3    (28)
5    29    Eddie Lacy    SEA    27.2    (34)
5    30    Doug Martin    TB    28.6    (37)
6    31    Mike Gillislee    NE    26.8    (36)
6    32    Jeremy Hill    CIN    24.9    (19)
6    33    Duke Johnson    CLE    23.9    (31)
6    34    Paul Perkins    NYG    22.8    (39)
6    35    Samaje Perine    WAS    22.0    rook
6    36    Ty Montgomery    GB    24.6    (35)
6    37    Jamaal Charles    DEN    30.7    (26)
6    38    D'Onta Foreman    HOU    21.4    rook
6    39    Latavius Murray    MIN    26.5    (23)
6    40    Dion Lewis    NE    26.9    (25)
6    41    Thomas Rawls    SEA    24.1    (18)
6    42    Marlon Mack    IND    21.7    rook
6    43    Marshawn Lynch    OAK    31.4    unr
6    44    Terrance West    BAL    26.6    (32)
6    45    Rob Kelley    WAS    24.9    (24)
6    46    Jamaal Williams    GB    22.7    rook
6    47    Wayne Gallman    NYG    22.9    rook
6    48    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    23.6    (27)
6    49    James Conner    PIT    22.3    rook
6    50    T.J. Yeldon    JAX    23.9    (29)
6    51    Matt Forte    NYJ    31.7    (45)
6    52    Adrian Peterson    NO    32.4    (44)
6    53    Karlos Williams        24.3    (38)
6    54    James White    NE    25.6    (40)
6    55    Rex Burkhead    NE    27.2    unr
7    56    Jerick McKinnon    MIN    25.3    (33)
7    57    Kenyan Drake    MIA    23.6    (41)
7    58    Bilal Powell    NYJ    28.8    (42)
7    59    Frank Gore    IND    34.3    (48)
7    60    Devontae Booker    DEN    25.3    (47)
7    61    Joe Williams    SF    24.0    rook
7    62    Jeremy McNichols    TB    21.7    rook
7    63    Charles Sims    TB    27.0    (46)
7    64    Shane Vereen    NYG    28.5    (58)
7    65    Jonathan Stewart    CAR    30.4    (49)
7    66    Aaron Jones    GB    22.7    rook
8    67    Jalen Richard    OAK    23.9    (51)
8    68    Chris Thompson    WAS    26.9    (50)
8    69    DeAndre Washington    OAK    24.5    (52)
8    70    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    23.6    (53)
8    71    Jonathan Williams    BUF    23.6    (76)
8    72    Tarik Cohen    CHI    22.1    rook
8    73    Donnel Pumphrey    PHI    22.7    rook
8    74    Darren Sproles    PHI    34.2    (56)
8    75    Zach Zenner    DET    26.0    (59)
8    76    Danny Woodhead    BAL    32.7    (60)
8    77    Matt Jones    WAS    24.5    (68)
8    78    Ryan Mathews    PHI    29.9    (63)
8    79    Brian Hill    ATL    21.8    rook
9    80    Jacquizz Rodgers    TB    27.6    (55)
9    81    Christine Michael    GB    26.8    (54)
9    82    Chris Ivory    JAX    29.4    (57)
9    83    Robert Turbin    IND    27.7    (71)
9    84    LeGarrette Blount        30.7    (43)
9    85    Elijah McGuire    NYJ    23.3    rook
9    86    Benny Cunningham    CHI    27.2    (83)
9    87    DeAngelo Williams        34.4    (61)
9    88    Rashad Jennings        32.4    (62)
9    89    Jeremy Langford    CHI    25.7    (65)
9    90    Tyler Ervin    HOU    23.9    (67)
9    91    Alex Collins    SEA    23.0    (69)
9    92    T.J. Logan    ARI    23.0    rook
9    93    DeAngelo Henderson    DEN    24.8    rook
9    94    Malcolm Brown    RAM    24.3    (70)
10    95    Darren McFadden    DAL    30.0    (73)
10    96    Charcandrick West    KC    26.3    (74)
10    97    Javorius Allen    BAL    26.0    (66)
10    98    Fozzy Whittaker    CAR    28.6    (75)
10    99    Alfred Morris    DAL    28.7    (78)
10    100    Elijah Hood    OAK    21.4    rook
10    101    Chris Carson    SEA    23.0    rook
10    102    Dwayne Washington    DET    23.4    (77)
10    103    Alfred Blue    HOU    26.3    (72)
10    104    Chris Johnson    ARI    31.9    (88)
10    105    Lance Dunbar    RAM    27.6    (110)
10    106    Denard Robinson        26.9    (79)
10    107    Travaris Cadet    NO    28.6    (81)
10    108    Tim Hightower    SF    31.3    (82)
10    109    D.J. Foster    NE    23.8    (84)

The RB field is looking a lot stronger than it has recently, with a lot of promising (or already productive) young players in the top 3 tiers (top 17). The dropoff after that comes quickly, as the "well, at least he's the starter" tier 4 has really thinned out in the draft and free agency.

I really like the Saints as a landing spot for a talented receiving back like Kamara. I've said more about the rookies in the other thread.

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35 minutes ago, Borden said:

Karlos Williams seems pretty high for a guy that has no team. 

He's currently down in the same part of the rankings as random 4th rounders, which doesn't seem all that high to me. He's similar to guys like Josh Gordon and pre-reinstatement Martavis Bryant (though with a briefer track record of impressive NFL production) - if he can get his act together he could be really good, but it's fairly likely you'll get nothing.

Here's another way of framing it. If a true psychic told you "One of these four RBs will be a top 10 fantasy RB in 2018: T.J. Yeldon, Karlos Williams, Jerick McKinnon, Kenyan Drake" which would you bet on? I would probably bet on Williams, and at the very least he doesn't seem out of place among that group.

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So this seems off to me. All 3 running backs in Cincinnati are ranked higher than the starting running back for the giants?  I get that you don't factor in situation as much as talent but the giants have sent a number of very strong signals about how they see Perkins, and they seem to see him as a three down back.  

3    9    Joe Mixon    CIN    21.1    rook
5    26    Giovani Bernard    CIN    25.8    (16)
6    32    Jeremy Hill    CIN    24.9    (19)
6    34    Paul Perkins    NYG    22.8    (39)

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9 hours ago, ZWK said:

6    44    Terrance West    BAL    26.6    (32)

6    48    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    23.6    (27)
8    76    Danny Woodhead    BAL    32.7    (60)

I understand vets getting dropped due to competition, but even in a dynasty format, one of these guys is going to be very valuable (even if it is only for this season).  I would like to know your rationale for moving all of them down, and very significantly, in the absence of any personnel changes.

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2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

I understand vets getting dropped due to competition, but even in a dynasty format, one of these guys is going to be very valuable (even if it is only for this season).  I would like to know your rationale for moving all of them down, and very significantly, in the absence of any personnel changes.

Not that you asked me, but chiming in:

I think the rankings are all reasonable, as I am not sold on the potential of the two younger guys.  It looks like a heavy rotation to me, so I don't think it's a given that one of these guys is especially valuable, even for this season.  And if I'm wrong, I don't want to have to roster all of them to ensure I own the right guy.  I'd likely bump them up ~5 spots each, but in this range, there's not much separation.  

JMO. 

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8 hours ago, bostonfred said:

So this seems off to me. All 3 running backs in Cincinnati are ranked higher than the starting running back for the giants?  I get that you don't factor in situation as much as talent but the giants have sent a number of very strong signals about how they see Perkins, and they seem to see him as a three down back.  

3    9    Joe Mixon    CIN    21.1    rook
5    26    Giovani Bernard    CIN    25.8    (16)
6    32    Jeremy Hill    CIN    24.9    (19)
6    34    Paul Perkins    NYG    22.8    (39)

 

5 hours ago, tangfoot said:
14 hours ago, ZWK said:

6    44    Terrance West    BAL    26.6    (32)

6    48    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    23.6    (27)
8    76    Danny Woodhead    BAL    32.7    (60)

I understand vets getting dropped due to competition, but even in a dynasty format, one of these guys is going to be very valuable (even if it is only for this season).  I would like to know your rationale for moving all of them down, and very significantly, in the absence of any personnel changes.

In redraft, none of the NYG or BAL backs in are in the top 30 (except maybe Perkins; he's close to RB30). On both teams there's uncertainty about who will have the biggest role, and there's a fairly high likelihood of a committee which prevents anyone from having much fantasy value this year.

Looking past this season, I think it's fairly likely that neither team's long-term starting RB is on their roster yet. They have some 4th-5th round RBs who are in their first 2 years and haven't shown much in the NFL yet, a journeyman in West, and some older receiving backs. They're generally in a similar ballpark to guys like Marlon Mack and Jamaal Williams, though I do have Perkins (and Samaje Perine) ahead of the rest because I think they have a clearer path to the starting job along with some talent.

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15 minutes ago, ZWK said:

 

In redraft, none of the NYG or BAL backs in are in the top 30 (except maybe Perkins; he's close to RB30). On both teams there's uncertainty about who will have the biggest role, and there's a fairly high likelihood of a committee which prevents anyone from having much fantasy value this year.

Looking past this season, I think it's fairly likely that neither team's long-term starting RB is on their roster yet. They have some 4th-5th round RBs who are in their first 2 years and haven't shown much in the NFL yet, a journeyman in West, and some older receiving backs. They're generally in a similar ballpark to guys like Marlon Mack and Jamaal Williams, though I do have Perkins (and Samaje Perine) ahead of the rest because I think they have a clearer path to the starting job along with some talent.

If you're using redraft adp as an input, then Perkins will likely rise before the draft.  His draft position had a lot of uncertainty baked in that's changed already - will they bring in a free agent, will they draft someone early, will he have a role.  

They didn't bring in Peterson, Jamaal Charles out any of the bigger bane free agents.  There is still a chance they get Blount, but there have already been articles infusing they're set at the position.  

They didn't take a back early in the draft.  They grabbed a guy, but he's a "banger" who according to every scouting report has problems in pass protection.  

They have also announced he's the starter, which is unusual if they were still looking. Coaches say that when the veteran incumbent is worried about the young guy, but Perkins is the young guy and they already let the incumbent go.  There's no reason to sat hey Perkins is the starter and then sign Blount two days later and say haha just kidding Blount is the starter.  They just wouldn't say anything.  

At this point you should expect his adp to gradually climb, while a couple other guys, probably including some of Mixon, Jeremy hill and Bernard, drop as news comes out about then.  I don't expect him to go to top 10 or anything, but he's one of those guys who could go anywhere from third to sixth round by August depending on camp news.  And while i get being down on him as a fifth round pick, his ability to keep the job will be largely determined by how will he plays this year - much like other mud round guys like ajayi, Freeman, Howard, etc. It's rare for mid round guys to succeed, but it's becoming really common for mid round guys who get a chance to start for their team to succeed.

I've been thinking about this recently because it comes up in so many threads here.  It's the monty hall problem.  If I ask you to choose a prize out of box 1, for number 2 or curtain number 3, your odds of picking the best prize are 1 in 3, but if afterwards. I always eliminate a box with a bad prize and ask if you want to switch, you should always switch, because at the time you picked, the odds of guessing right were 1 in 3, which means that the other box is now counter intuitively 2/3 likely to be the best prize.

Similarly, if I asked you to pick a fifth round running back at random, your chances are pretty bad.  Let's say only 1 in 10 ever become quality players.  But if only 2 out of 10 guys go on to get starting jobs, then the nfl process has eliminated 8 of the choices - and now if monty asks if you want to switch boxes you say absolutely. 

That doesn't mean he's a lock to succeed - it just means I think the paradigm you're using is flawed and it's time to rethink it. 

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Wow! That seems a bit harsh: I think the paradigm you're using is flawed and it's time to rethink it

Nothing wrong with disagreeing and rankings/projections are a combination of science/art, but no one person is right. I appreciate the effort and time ZWK puts into these rankings, plus answering questions when people have a different opinion. A RB named starter in May with not much of a track record in the NFL and doesn't have much draft capital is not a lock to start on opening day. He has the inside track to an open competition, and maybe gets more reps the first week of camp, but that's about it. Sure Perkins is worth more than a week ago before the NFL draft, but not that much more.

 

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25 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

If you're using redraft adp as an input, then Perkins will likely rise before the draft.  His draft position had a lot of uncertainty baked in that's changed already - will they bring in a free agent, will they draft someone early, will he have a role.  

They didn't bring in Peterson, Jamaal Charles out any of the bigger bane free agents.  There is still a chance they get Blount, but there have already been articles infusing they're set at the position.  

They didn't take a back early in the draft.  They grabbed a guy, but he's a "banger" who according to every scouting report has problems in pass protection.  

They have also announced he's the starter, which is unusual if they were still looking. Coaches say that when the veteran incumbent is worried about the young guy, but Perkins is the young guy and they already let the incumbent go.  There's no reason to sat hey Perkins is the starter and then sign Blount two days later and say haha just kidding Blount is the starter.  They just wouldn't say anything.  

At this point you should expect his adp to gradually climb, while a couple other guys, probably including some of Mixon, Jeremy hill and Bernard, drop as news comes out about then.  I don't expect him to go to top 10 or anything, but he's one of those guys who could go anywhere from third to sixth round by August depending on camp news.  And while i get being down on him as a fifth round pick, his ability to keep the job will be largely determined by how will he plays this year - much like other mud round guys like ajayi, Freeman, Howard, etc. It's rare for mid round guys to succeed, but it's becoming really common for mid round guys who get a chance to start for their team to succeed.

I've been thinking about this recently because it comes up in so many threads here.  It's the monty hall problem.  If I ask you to choose a prize out of box 1, for number 2 or curtain number 3, your odds of picking the best prize are 1 in 3, but if afterwards. I always eliminate a box with a bad prize and ask if you want to switch, you should always switch, because at the time you picked, the odds of guessing right were 1 in 3, which means that the other box is now counter intuitively 2/3 likely to be the best prize.

Similarly, if I asked you to pick a fifth round running back at random, your chances are pretty bad.  Let's say only 1 in 10 ever become quality players.  But if only 2 out of 10 guys go on to get starting jobs, then the nfl process has eliminated 8 of the choices - and now if monty asks if you want to switch boxes you say absolutely. 

That doesn't mean he's a lock to succeed - it just means I think the paradigm you're using is flawed and it's time to rethink it. 

I agree that the fact that NYG is talking about Perkins as their starter is a positive sign about his talent level (for the reason that you're pointing to with the Monty Hall example), in addition to being good news about his likely workload this year. That's why I have him up at 34, which is the highest that I've ranked him (despite adding in the strong incoming rookie class), while other young guys of similar draft pedigree are all lower (generally between Marlon Mack at 42 and Jeremy McNichols at 62). I have him just ahead of Ty Montgomery (the Packers' starting RB) and Samaje Perine (who I like a lot as a prospect, and has a good chance of starting some games this year).

But I think we disagree about how strong a sign it is. You could've made pretty much the exact same post a year ago about Jeremy Langford, for example. Sometimes a team decides to make do for a year with a stopgap starter (which is basically what NYG has been doing since Ahmad Bradshaw left).

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

I've been thinking about this recently because it comes up in so many threads here.  

The only reason Paul Perkins comes up so much is that you keep bringing him up. You have been pimping this guy hard for over a year now. I think we get it. You have Perkins and you really like him. I hope it works out for you.

At the same time there is no need for you to get offended if people are not high enough on Perkins for you. The other day you were telling me that I do not like Perkins at all, just because I am not as high on him as you think I should be.

 

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My issue with the rankings are that there are guys who have never played a down above guys that are young and have had really good seasons: Howard, Coleman, Ajayi.

Ameer is way too high. He's too small to be a grinder and Theo is the main pass catcher. Add in the injuries and I don't see much upside.

McCoy and Murray should be a lot higher. I know they are older, but it's very possible to get another 1 or 2 seasons of top 5 play. Most of the guys ranked above them have never and will never sniff the level of play Murray and McCoy have in their careers. I like to think good stay good. 

Also, I get the skepticism with Ingram and Doug Martin, but at their age, I am willing to value the likelihood that they have another RB  season over many of the unproved players listed higher.  

 

Nice job on the ranks, it's good stuff. 

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

The only reason Paul Perkins comes up so much is that you keep bringing him up. You have been pimping this guy hard for over a year now. I think we get it. You have Perkins and you really like him. I hope it works out for you.

At the same time there is no need for you to get offended if people are not high enough on Perkins for you. The other day you were telling me that I do not like Perkins at all, just because I am not as high on him as you think I should be.

 

Lol probably true.  But that's not what I was talking about specifically.  I'm interested in something you were talking about in another thread, talking about the success rate of first round running backs vs fourth and fifth round running backs. And it's really strong data. Yet the counterpoint is that of fhe top 50 guys in zwk's list, I think 8 were first round picks, including two from this year, yeldon, and some good but not really earth shattering guys like Doug Martin and Mark Ingram.  So you're really looking at Gurley, Elliott and Melvin Gordon as your first round pick success stories.  Yet 5 of his top 10 are first round picks, with Ingram (25th), Martin (30th)and yeldon (50th) bringing up the rear.  Which means 19 of the top 24 guys were drafted outside the first round, and some mainstays like David Johnson, devonta Freeman, Lamar miller and Demarco Murray, as well as some new faces like Howard and Ajayi, have made the leap.  

I don't have a link to the specific post, but you pretty much dismissed the late round backs as nice lottery tickets but the odds are too stacked against you to draft them early.  And that makes sense to me because you had good data. But the results show that a lot of those top guys aren't first round picks.

Part of that can be easily explained away.  There haven't been 50 running backs selected in the first and second rounds of the nfl draft in the last 10 years, so of course the top 50 will include later round picks. Simple as that, no further explanation needed.  But that doesn't address the bigger question of how do you identify the late round guys who will make the top 50 (or top 10, or top 25, whatever cutoff you want to use).

And that's where I think the monty hall problem becomes useful.  We all kind of empirically like perine because he's probably going to be the starter.  We all also kind of think slow fourth round picks tend to suck.  How do you reconcile that into a proper study? 

You could look at all guys drafted in the 4th round and say it's extremely unlikely to pick the right one, good luck guessing right.  But that's not good analysis.  I liked Dixon, Howard, the guy I talk too much about, and Booker better than drake last year and I think you did too, because we all kind of saw drake as a change of pace at best, while the other guys had a chance to start.  Empirically we knew that a chance to start was good, but the data said fourth and fifth round picks are bad. 

The next level is to say what about slow guys?  Perine ran a 4.6 plus, that's bad, right?   And again, we can look back at the numbers and say yeah, guys who run slower than 4.6 rarely succeed. But again, empirically, we see that some big slow guys have done really well, and he is going to start 

Which is why I think the monty hall problem is important.  The initial data set for perine (who I like but don't own, by the way) shouldn't be fourth round picks or big slow guys.  It should be big slow fourth round picks who get a chance to start.  

That's really important.  You need to eliminate the third down backs, goal line specialists, fullbacks, special teams guys, projects, and other noise from the data set.  

We might not have enough data to do that.  The league isn't that old and it's changed a lot.  So cross examine the data. How many of the fourth round picks who got a chance to start in year one or two proceed to do well?  How many of the big slow guys who got a chance to start in year one or two?  How many of the starters who did well were big and slow?  Etc.  

Stats guys like to use measurables, like 40 time, draft pick and BMI.  But empirically, I like observable traits like can he run inside.  Can he run outside. Does he score a lot of touchdowns. Can he catch.  Can he pass block.  Will he be asked to do those things by his new team based on the current roster.  With first round picks, you don't need to get that granular - because guys selected in the first round are almost invariably good at most or all of those things.  That's why they were selected in the first round. 

But for later round picks, I think it's necessary.  How many big slow guys who were drafted to start and can run inside and score touchdowns and pass block do well?   That's what perine is. 

I liked Freeman a lot coming out, and didn't like hill relative to his draft position.  The reason I liked Freeman was because he could run inside, outside, catch, pass block and score touchdowns, and he had a clear path to starting. It's what I liked about Dixon last year, and the jury's still out there. The reason I didn't like hill is that he's a lot like perine - but he also had someone really good on the team who had just started his own rookie contract, and was better at running outside and catching the ball and decent ay scoring touchdowns. Perine has Thompson to deal with, but Thompson is nowhere near the threat for touches that Gio appeared to be, and that matters. 

Anyways, just some long and rambling thoughts on this stuff while I wait for the washer to finish.  Sorry for talking about that guy again. 

 

 

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bostonfred:Perkins::me:Dixon

Dixon waaay too low. I understand giving him a ding in redraft for missing 4 games, but (1) he looked really good after he got that brace off last year (4.9 ypc, 25 rec in last 8 games), (2) they didn't add anybody through the draft, and (3) they only added 32 y.o. Woodhead via free agency.

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37 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

bostonfred:Perkins::me:Dixon

Dixon waaay too low. I understand giving him a ding in redraft for missing 4 games, but (1) he looked really good after he got that brace off last year (4.9 ypc, 25 rec in last 8 games), (2) they didn't add anybody through the draft, and (3) they only added 32 y.o. Woodhead via free agency.

Some negatives on Dixon: He wasn't very productive as a receiver last year (30/162/1 for 5.4 YPR, 4.0 YPT) and then the team brought in Woodhead to be the receiving back; coming into the league it looked like success in the receiving game was one of Dixon's best paths to fantasy value but he didn't get off to a good start. The Ravens are talking about Terrance West, not Dixon, as their starter. The Ravens have also been talking about how they aren't satisfied with their RB corps - they didn't do much to upgrade this offseason but that just bought their current RBs one season.

He still has some promise, but not enough to stand out from this year's new crop of 4th rounders.

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3 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Some negatives on Dixon: He wasn't very productive as a receiver last year (30/162/1 for 5.4 YPR, 4.0 YPT) and then the team brought in Woodhead to be the receiving back; coming into the league it looked like success in the receiving game was one of Dixon's best paths to fantasy value but he didn't get off to a good start. The Ravens are talking about Terrance West, not Dixon, as their starter. The Ravens have also been talking about how they aren't satisfied with their RB corps - they didn't do much to upgrade this offseason but that just bought their current RBs one season.

He still has some promise, but not enough to stand out from this year's new crop of 4th rounders.

But here's the thing. Even with the suspension, I can probably make a case for taking Dixon prior to RB48 in redraft! In which case I'd be getting the rest of an at least somewhat promising 23-year-old's career literally for free. Unless you're arguing the opportunity cost of the roster spot, I don't see how that's a losing proposition.

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Just now, ZWK said:

Some negatives on Dixon: He wasn't very productive as a receiver last year (30/162/1 for 5.4 YPR, 4.0 YPT) and then the team brought in Woodhead to be the receiving back; coming into the league it looked like success in the receiving game was one of Dixon's best paths to fantasy value but he didn't get off to a good start. The Ravens are talking about Terrance West, not Dixon, as their starter. The Ravens have also been talking about how they aren't satisfied with their RB corps - they didn't do much to upgrade this offseason but that just bought their current RBs one season.

He still has some promise, but not enough to stand out from this year's new crop of 4th rounders.

Again, a lot of that had to do with his injury. During his first 4 games back he had 5 rec for 6 yards, leaving him with 25 rec for 6.2 ypr in the last 8 games in which he looked healthier. 6.2 ypr is still nothing to get excited about, but ypr is very tricky to gauge. Really need to dig into aDoT to determine what his ypr means and I don't have access to that. But as a Dixon fan I'm really not that worried about his receiving load. His versatility should keep him on the field more than the one dimensional and old Woodhead. West is still maybe just a hair better than a JAG and that's all Dixon is competing with for early downs. I feel like his success in the last 8 weeks should vault him over the current year's 4th rounders who haven't proven they can play in the NFL. And he definitely should be ahead of guys like Charles in dynasty.

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I don't want to turn this into a Kenneth Dixon thread, but I still like him too. I can  also understand someone liking perine or any of a number of guys in the same tier better than Dixon. I just don't understand how there are 3 Cincinnati running backs ahead of him. 

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37 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I don't want to turn this into a Kenneth Dixon thread, but I still like him too. I can  also understand someone liking perine or any of a number of guys in the same tier better than Dixon. I just don't understand how there are 3 Cincinnati running backs ahead of him. 

You disagree, move on.

 

I appreciate zwks efforts as it isn't easy and there's always people who criticize no matter what you do. If people can do better start your own threads and lists. Discussion is great but saying the same thing 5 or 6 times isn't. 

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22 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

You disagree, move on.

 

I appreciate zwks efforts as it isn't easy and there's always people who criticize no matter what you do. If people can do better start your own threads and lists. Discussion is great but saying the same thing 5 or 6 times isn't. 

Just because people post about certain rankings does not mean they don't appreciate the time and effort @ZWK puts into his rankings. Posting questions or disagreement fosters excellent discussion, which should be the main point of this thread.

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23 hours ago, bostonfred said:

I don't want to turn this into a Kenneth Dixon thread, but I still like him too. I can  also understand someone liking perine or any of a number of guys in the same tier better than Dixon. I just don't understand how there are 3 Cincinnati running backs ahead of him. 

I'd have him a bit higher as well, but it's not like all 3 of those RBs are going to be in Cincinnati forever- there's a pretty good chance Hill is gone after this year (if not before).

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Just because people post about certain rankings does not mean they don't appreciate the time and effort @ZWK puts into his rankings. Posting questions or disagreement fosters excellent discussion, which should be the main point of this thread.

Saying the same thing to the same person repeatedly isn't discussion. Another problem with these boards is not reading a person's whole post or what came before but having to give your opinion anyways. 

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On 5/3/2017 at 4:32 AM, bostonfred said:

So this seems off to me. All 3 running backs in Cincinnati are ranked higher than the starting running back for the giants?  I get that you don't factor in situation as much as talent but the giants have sent a number of very strong signals about how they see Perkins, and they seem to see him as a three down back.  

3    9    Joe Mixon    CIN    21.1    rook
5    26    Giovani Bernard    CIN    25.8    (16)
6    32    Jeremy Hill    CIN    24.9    (19)
6    34    Paul Perkins    NYG    22.8    (39)

Joe Mixon might bust (for on-the-field or off-the-field reasons), which would create room for other guys to take over in Cincy. The possibility that Mixon might bust keeps his value down, but it is already priced in to his ranking at #9 (the other young guys in his tier, like Cook & Howard, also might bust).

Jeremy Hill is in the last year of his contract, and seems likely to sign elsewhere next season (unless Mixon already looks like a bust by then). He is a Perine-like player who is 3-years-older than Perine (which is a negative) but has played well enough in the NFL to have a significant workload so far (which is a positive); the net effect leaves him pretty close to Perine in my rankings.

I might be too high on Gio Bernard, given that he still has 3 years left on his contract at a pretty reasonable price. If Mixon turns out to be what I think he could, and Cincy decides to keep Gio around as a pure backup, then the majority of his remaining years will have little fantasy value except for the occasional game when Mixon is out with an injury. On the plus side, if Hill leaves town and Mixon busts then Gio does have some upside.

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On 5/3/2017 at 10:50 PM, bostonfred said:

Lol probably true.  But that's not what I was talking about specifically.  I'm interested in something you were talking about in another thread, talking about the success rate of first round running backs vs fourth and fifth round running backs. And it's really strong data. Yet the counterpoint is that of fhe top 50 guys in zwk's list, I think 8 were first round picks, including two from this year, yeldon, and some good but not really earth shattering guys like Doug Martin and Mark Ingram.  So you're really looking at Gurley, Elliott and Melvin Gordon as your first round pick success stories.  Yet 5 of his top 10 are first round picks, with Ingram (25th), Martin (30th)and yeldon (50th) bringing up the rear.  Which means 19 of the top 24 guys were drafted outside the first round, and some mainstays like David Johnson, devonta Freeman, Lamar miller and Demarco Murray, as well as some new faces like Howard and Ajayi, have made the leap.  

I don't have a link to the specific post, but you pretty much dismissed the late round backs as nice lottery tickets but the odds are too stacked against you to draft them early.  And that makes sense to me because you had good data. But the results show that a lot of those top guys aren't first round picks.

I think the discussion recently you might be referring to was in the Kareem Hunt thread. Your interpretation of.what was being discussed isn't what I was trying to communicate at all though. Do you not recall the many discussions in years past where I have argued against the very thing? How many times did people dismiss Zac Stacy because he was a 5th round pick? Was I one of those people? Absolutely not. In fact it was such arguments that led towards discussion of how to quantify player production in terms of Vbd to be worth a specific draft pick. At the time people argued that Zac Stacy (mostly because he was a 5th round pick) should only be a mid second round or later pick. I argued that he would be worth a late 1st round pick. These discussions stemmed off into what you see ZWK doing with his generic rookie rankings based on expected VBD. ZWK has a different method of doing this that what workdog did. But they are very similar in what they try to do, which is to look at the historical performance of players drafted by round, or overall pick or in workdogs study by the positional draft order. All 3 methods have somewhat different results just because of where the cut offs are set, or how the player order is partitioned.

What developed out of these discussions was an agreement that 40 VBD would be enough for the player to give your team an advantage on a per game basis, 32 VBD is 2 VBD/game advantage over the baseline, 40 gives a bit more cushion than this. If the player is performing below the baseline, they still give you some fantasy points, but not points that are helping you win, aside from perhaps a game or two (that you may or may not have started them).

Here is workdogs overall expectted VBD by rookie draft pick Pick 1.12 has an estimated career VBD of 169.

What I was talking about is the fact that rookie players bust. A lot. They bust even more for fantasy purposes because being a starter in the NFL does not mean the player is performing well enough to be worth starting in fantasy. The starting requirements of each leagues rules dictates what players actually have value for fantasy or not.

My rookie rankings are all about upside. This type of evaluation shows the risk, or downside of rookie players that my rankings do not.

These odds are derived from the historical performance of the players based on positional order. Not all drafts are equal, some are stronger at a position than average, some are weaker than average. So depending on the strength of the players any given year could be better or worse than these odds. 

The history of the NFL draft shows that RB were selected much higher and more often in the first round than they have been the past decade or so. This has also been discussed a lot. The NFL devaluing of the RB position is very evident in the draft capital invested in them recently compared to past (a couple years with zero 1st round RB) and that picks used at the position trending down (later 1st round picks each year) leading up to that.

I know I mentioned at some point a year or so ago that this data was going to change by default, simply because there have not been enough 1st round RB drafted. There are always a top 12 at any position, regardless of how well they perform and that many of those slots would necessarily be filled by later round picks at the RB position. It is pretty easy to see that this is now becoming the case.

Now the last couple of drafts have had some 1st round RB in them and some really good ones, so this will likely start shifting back towards the norm again, we will see. But no it would not be fair to charecterize my opinion about this being that RB selected after round one have no chance of being successful. Quite the opposite.

That said, the odds are lower the later the player is selected. You really need to pick the right ones, because most of the later picks will not pan out. Just like a good percentage of the rookies no matter how high they are taken also will not pan out.

On 5/3/2017 at 10:50 PM, bostonfred said:

Part of that can be easily explained away.  There haven't been 50 running backs selected in the first and second rounds of the nfl draft in the last 10 years, so of course the top 50 will include later round picks. Simple as that, no further explanation needed.  But that doesn't address the bigger question of how do you identify the late round guys who will make the top 50 (or top 10, or top 25, whatever cutoff you want to use).

Correct. Your straw man is now down and cannot get up.

On 5/3/2017 at 10:50 PM, bostonfred said:

And that's where I think the monty hall problem becomes useful.  We all kind of empirically like perine because he's probably going to be the starter.  We all also kind of think slow fourth round picks tend to suck.  How do you reconcile that into a proper study? 

You could look at all guys drafted in the 4th round and say it's extremely unlikely to pick the right one, good luck guessing right.  But that's not good analysis.  I liked Dixon, Howard, the guy I talk too much about, and Booker better than drake last year and I think you did too, because we all kind of saw drake as a change of pace at best, while the other guys had a chance to start.  Empirically we knew that a chance to start was good, but the data said fourth and fifth round picks are bad. 

Considering one data point would not be analysis. There are many different data that when considered together form an analysis of the information known and available.

I tier the players based on upside. That analysis is driven by a lot of different things. Too many things for me to describe them all succinctly in a blurb about the player.

As far as the 2016 draft class goes and the way I rank the players is based on upside. I tier them into 3 categories. The value of each tier is the same, but the order that I rank the players within the tier is my opinion about the players odds to reach this upside, so a player at the end of tier two is close to being tier three and vice versa. I also try to factor opportunity into this. As we have discussed before, it can be valuable to select a player who gets opportunity earlier in their career because if it isn't terrible, that becomes an opportunity to sell the player, while they are still somewhat unknown. Offering the monty hall mystery box and the risk it has to someone else, in exchange for a different set of risks, but ones you may have more confidence in (established player). So opportunity, and early opportunity will move a player up in the tier for me.

 

May 1st 2016 rookie rankings

Tier 11

4 RB Ezekiel Elliot Cowboys

Tier 1

15 WR Corey Coleman Browns
22 WR Josh Doctson Redskins
23 WR Laquon Treadwell Vikings

Tier 2

45 RB Derrick Henry Titans
136 RB Devontae Booker Broncos
40 WR Sterling Shephard Giants
47 WR Michael Thomas Saints
134 RB Kenneth Dixon Ravens
2 QB Carson Wentz Eagles
1 QB Jared Goff Rams
21 WR Will Fuller Texans
55 WR Tyler Boyd Bengals
86 WR Leonte Carroo Dolphins
35 TE Henry Hunter Chargers
81 TE Austin Hooper Falcons
26 QB Paxton Lynch Broncos
51 QB Christian Hackenberg Jets


Tier 3

206 WR Mike Thomas Rams
117 WR Pharoh Cooper Rams
85 WR Braxton Miller Texans
171 RB Alex Collins Seahawks
90 RB CJ Prosise Seahawks
107 WR Chris Moore Ravens
150 RB Jordan Howard Bears
112 WR Malcolm Mitchell Patriots
172 WR Rashard Higgins Browns
143 RB DeAndre Washington Raiders
149 RB Paul Perkins Giants
140 WR Tajae Sharpe Titans
139 QB Cardale Jones Bills
91 QB Jacoby Brissett Patriots
93 QB Cody Kessler Browns
114 WR Louis Ricardo Browns
216 RB Darius Jackson Cowboys
135 QB Dak Prescott Cowboys
100 QB Connor Cook Raiders

Watch list


110 TE Tyler Higbee Rams
119 RB Tyler Ervin Texans
126 WR Demarcus Robinson Chiefs
138 TE Seth Devalve Browns
153 RB Wendell Smallwood Eagles
154 WR Jordan Payton Browns 
156 RB Johnathan Williams Bills
162 QB Kevin Hogan Chiefs
163 WR Trevor Davis Packers
165 WR Tyreek Hill Chiefs
177 TE Temarrick Hemmingway Rams
180 WR Moritz Boehringer Vikings
182 RB Keenan Reynolds Ravens
184 TE Jerell Adams Giants
186 WR Jakeem Grant Dolphins
187 QB Nate Sudfeld Reskinks
188 TE David Morgan Vikings
191 QB Jake Rudock Lions
192 WR Kolby Listenbee Bills
199 WR Cody Core Bengals
201 QB Brandon Allen Jaguars
207 QB Jeff Driskel 49ers
211 RB Kelvin Taylor 49ers
213 WR Aaron Burbridge 49ers
217 TE Rico Gathers Cowboys
223 QB Brandon Doughty Dolphins
225 WR Devin Lucien Patriots
229 WR DeMarcys Ayers Steelers
230 WR Daniel Braverman Bears
231 TE Daniel Thomas Dolphins (just in case)
236 RB Dwayne Washington Lions
237 RB Daniel Lusco Saints
238 WR Devin Fuller Falcons
241 WR Charone Peake Jets
242 RB Keith Marshall Redskins
243 WR Kenny Lawler Seahawks
247 RB Zac Brooks Seahawks
252 TE Beau Sandland Panthers

It is always fun for me to look back on these things and my first impression of my own list is what the hell was I thinking about many of these.

You have Rams ranked really high because of opportunity as no other skill players with the Rams had really established themselves.Same with the Seahawks RB. When there is a void for a team at a skill position I will rank all rookie players drafted to that team a bit higher because of the opportunity. So trying to catch lightning in a bottle is definitely influencing the order of otherwise similarly tiered players. Draft position and my evaluation of the team fit, scheme, role, competition. Team projections. Some forward thinking about if a player will be more valuable in future seasons, for example high ranking of Henry.

After the seasons the 3 tier one WR had I somewhat regret having them this high, I think this has caused me to be overly critical of WR this year somewhat.

I had 3 tier two RB. Where you see the QB in tier two is kind of what separates the players I thought had good chances to become tier two from the players I felt less confident about that happening for them. A lot of these players I didn't really like that much but ranked them there because of draft position and opportunity. In a sense you could consider these players borderline tier 3 upside. The tier two above the QB are the boxes i want to pick.

Jordan Howard a player I regret having so low. I even saw that Howard was a perfect John Fox RB who could win the job. I mostly doubted his ability as a receiver which was wrong. I thought it would be more of a timeshare with Langford being the receiving back and thus limiting Howards upside, even though I thought he was the RB Fox would prefer. I had and have some doubts about Fox being the Bears HC as well, so if it was RBBC then a change in coaches in years to follow, the new coach might be looking for a different kind of RB than what Fox likes. I also shy away from run to contact RB like Howard as I think they are more likely to become injured due to their running style, but I do not feel strongly about that at all. Just another thing that deserves more investigation.

At this time I thought Washington had a slightly easier path to playing time than Perkins and considered them very close in relative talent, although from that perspective perhaps like Perkins a bit more in a vacuum, mostly because of pad level. The Raiders a better offensive line than the Giants as well.

 As much as I use data and research, a lot of this is driven by intuition for me as well. Some times my analysis is wrong. Jordan Howard for example. Hurts even more because I had the situation right but the talent level of the player wrong. This is where I have the most trouble, as there are times I will believe something for a good reason, but it just does not apply to that particular player.

On 5/3/2017 at 10:50 PM, bostonfred said:

The next level is to say what about slow guys?  Perine ran a 4.6 plus, that's bad, right?   And again, we can look back at the numbers and say yeah, guys who run slower than 4.6 rarely succeed. But again, empirically, we see that some big slow guys have done really well, and he is going to start 

In the Perine thread I point out that Jordan Howard had very similar numbers at his pro day. Howard turned out ok.

On 5/3/2017 at 10:50 PM, bostonfred said:

Which is why I think the monty hall problem is important.  The initial data set for perine (who I like but don't own, by the way) shouldn't be fourth round picks or big slow guys.  It should be big slow fourth round picks who get a chance to start.  

That's really important.  You need to eliminate the third down backs, goal line specialists, fullbacks, special teams guys, projects, and other noise from the data set.  

The data being referenced is just what it is. I agree with you that data is not the ultimate arbiter of truth. It is just data.

On 5/3/2017 at 10:50 PM, bostonfred said:

We might not have enough data to do that.  The league isn't that old and it's changed a lot.  So cross examine the data. How many of the fourth round picks who got a chance to start in year one or two proceed to do well?  How many of the big slow guys who got a chance to start in year one or two?  How many of the starters who did well were big and slow?  Etc.  

Gianmarco has a really nice thread on this, evaluating how often a player selected by round, gets early opportunity to play does well but is replaced by another player in the following season anyways. What he found is that unless the player was a 1st round pick, they were not always really considered to be starters, and when teams had the opportunity to upgrade, they did. It was pretty compelling if someone wants to dig up that thread. I have a few times in the past, it is pretty good. Anyhow, like any average or broad generalization, there will be some that fit and some that don't. The tendency is the higher the draft pick, the more chances they get to prove they are not bad than a lower draft pick.

The historical performance does address this question. Just a matter of how you want to look at it.

Another study that looks at the career path of the best RB over 25 years and how their careers progressed.  

On 5/3/2017 at 10:50 PM, bostonfred said:

Stats guys like to use measurables, like 40 time, draft pick and BMI.  But empirically, I like observable traits like can he run inside.  Can he run outside. Does he score a lot of touchdowns. Can he catch.  Can he pass block.  Will he be asked to do those things by his new team based on the current roster.  With first round picks, you don't need to get that granular - because guys selected in the first round are almost invariably good at most or all of those things.  That's why they were selected in the first round. 

I agree. The longer I do think the further I move from metrics. I think those things are most useful for predicting draft position. Not sure they have much other utility.

On 5/3/2017 at 10:50 PM, bostonfred said:

I liked Freeman a lot coming out, and didn't like hill relative to his draft position.  The reason I liked Freeman was because he could run inside, outside, catch, pass block and score touchdowns, and he had a clear path to starting. It's what I liked about Dixon last year, and the jury's still out there. The reason I didn't like hill is that he's a lot like perine - but he also had someone really good on the team who had just started his own rookie contract, and was better at running outside and catching the ball and decent ay scoring touchdowns. Perine has Thompson to deal with, but Thompson is nowhere near the threat for touches that Gio appeared to be, and that matters. 

This is something that we agreed about. I just forgot about Freeman for the most part because he didn't flash early on. Other fish were frying. Hill did have a great end of his rookie season that had me wondering about my bias against these big non elusive RBs like Howard. ;)

On 5/3/2017 at 10:50 PM, bostonfred said:

Anyways, just some long and rambling thoughts on this stuff while I wait for the washer to finish.  Sorry for talking about that guy again. 

No worries, Sorry if I was harsh. Just one drop over the dam. Cheers.

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In regards to Perine he was selected with pick 114 which fell into this category

Picks 74-114

Curtis Martin HOF

Tre Mason

Ahman Green

Terry Kirby

Karim Abdul-Jabbar

Kevan Barlow

Chris Warren

Steve Slaton

Brian Westbrook

Bam Morris

Chris Brown

Terrance West

Michael Pittman

Jerick McKinnon

Lamar Miller

Rudi Johnson

Michael Bush

Domanick Williams

Stephen Davis

Edgar Bennett

Onterrio Smith

Marion Barber

Brandon Jacobs

Andre Williams

Raymont Harris

This group consists of 25 players. 20% of these players performed as a top 12 RB as rookies.

The average VBD numbers for this group by season are

15.4 15.8 21.4 29.4 21.8 27 12 4.8 1.92 4.84 0 0 0

Compared to the average of

22.5 31.2 33 29 28 31.3 17 11 8.3 4 .2 .2 0

This group out/undertperforms the average by

-7.1 -15.4 -11.6 .36 -6.2 -4.3 -5 -6.2 -6.4 .84 -.2 -.2 0

The average performance for RB in this group is never close to 40VBD. The best season is in year four.

This group does worse than average in their rookie season.

This group also under performs the average every season but year four and year ten, when the group performs slightly above the average.

The average number of top 12 seasons for this group is 1.7 This is 15% worse than the average of two for the entire group.

The bolded player would be similar body type and play style (although Brandon Jacobs is somewhat unique and could be considered different)

What this data tells me is that a player drafted in this range has their upside capped at RB 2 numbers for the most part, although there are some players from this group who have performed as RB ones. I am just looking at the average performance of the group. I like Perine a lot, but I have reason to doubt his upside is more than this as well.

Pick 114 is the last pick of this selection, so borderline and perhaps should be considered with the 115-187 group. Always a problem with arbitrary cut off points.

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6 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

In regards to Perine he was selected with pick 114 which fell into this category

Picks 74-114

Pick 114 is the last pick of this selection, so borderline and perhaps should be considered with the 115-187 group. Always a problem with arbitrary cut off points.

Yeah, not sure why you would lump 114 in with all of those higher picks without considering the lower picks as well. Something like 94-134 would still be arbitrary, but would at least be more balanced.

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12 minutes ago, EBF said:

Yeah, not sure why you would lump 114 in with all of those higher picks without considering the lower picks as well. Something like 94-134 would still be arbitrary, but would at least be more balanced.

It is that way because I wanted to connect the data with this I didn't choose the cut off. 

Workdog then tries to connect these two things together with his evaluation. RB

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I am now thinking that I was underrating Dixon by putting him at 48. I wasn't giving him enough credit for what he did last year; he should be up in the mid 30s or so. Still on the same tier, but closer to Perkins than to Gallman.

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35 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I am now thinking that I was underrating Dixon by putting him at 48. I wasn't giving him enough credit for what he did last year; he should be up in the mid 30s or so. Still on the same tier, but closer to Perkins than to Gallman.

I could see that. You have West as tier 6 as well however. Would you move Dixon ahead of him?

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On 5/7/2017 at 2:42 PM, Biabreakable said:

I could see that. You have West as tier 6 as well however. Would you move Dixon ahead of him?

Yes. Dixon has more upside - he has a better chance of turning out to be a RB that Baltimore is happy with as their long-term starter. West seems like a better bet to have the larger workload this year, but if he does then Baltimore will probably see him as a replaceable stopgap starter.

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8 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Yes. Dixon has more upside - he has a better chance of turning out to be a RB that Baltimore is happy with as their long-term starter. West seems like a better bet to have the larger workload this year, but if he does then Baltimore will probably see him as a replaceable stopgap starter.

West is a free agent after this season. Woodhead is also in the mix, both of these players could limit Dixons opportunity for this season. 

I agree Dixon has more upside. At the same time no guarantee that the Ravens won't draft another RB in 2018. They would pretty much need to if they do not sign West to a new deal.

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36 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

West is a free agent after this season. Woodhead is also in the mix, both of these players could limit Dixons opportunity for this season. 

I agree Dixon has more upside. At the same time no guarantee that the Ravens won't draft another RB in 2018. They would pretty much need to if they do not sign West to a new deal.

I agree that Baltimore's RB of the future probably isn't on their roster. That's why none of their RBs are in my top 30. But Dixon has a better shot than West at being the Ravens RB of the future (or at being a starting RB on any team in 2019).

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6 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I agree that Baltimore's RB of the future probably isn't on their roster. That's why none of their RBs are in my top 30. But Dixon has a better shot than West at being the Ravens RB of the future (or at being a starting RB on any team in 2019).

Agreed. Dixon was one of the better rookies from last season imo. He has had some issues already. The injury last year and now the suspension this year is the only reason my interest in him has cooled a bit since then.

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Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 2/3/17.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    24.8    (1)
1    2    Mike Evans    TB    24.0    (2)
2    3    Julio Jones    ATL    28.6    (3)
2    4    Amari Cooper    OAK    23.2    (4)
2    5    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    25.2    (6)
2    6    Sammy Watkins    BUF    24.2    (5)
2    7    Antonio Brown    PIT    29.1    (7)
2    8    A.J. Green    CIN    29.1    (8)
3    9    T.Y. Hilton    IND    27.8    (9)
3    10    Michael Thomas    NO    24.5    (15)
3    11    Allen Robinson    JAX    24.0    (11)
3    12    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    27.5    (10)
3    13    Dez Bryant    DAL    28.8    (12)
3    14    Brandin Cooks    NE    23.9    (14)
3    15    Keenan Allen    LAC    25.3    (13)
3    16    Corey Davis    TEN    22.6    rook
3    17    Davante Adams    GB    24.7    (18)
4    18    Corey Coleman    CLE    23.2    (16)
4    19    Mike Williams    LAC    22.9    rook
5    20    DeVante Parker    MIA    24.6    (17)
5    21    John Ross    CIN    21.8    rook
5    22    Stefon Diggs    MIN    23.8    (21)
5    23    Kelvin Benjamin    CAR    26.6    (19)
5    24    Josh Doctson    WAS    24.7    (20)
6    25    Doug Baldwin    SEA    29.9    (22)
6    26    Jordy Nelson    GB    32.3    (23)
6    27    Jarvis Landry    MIA    24.8    (24)
6    28    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    29.7    (25)
6    29    Martavis Bryant    PIT    25.7    (36)
6    30    Will Fuller    HOU    23.4    (27)
6    31    Donte Moncrief    IND    24.1    (26)
6    32    Sterling Shepard    NYG    24.6    (29)
6    33    Randall Cobb    GB    27.0    (34)
6    34    Jordan Matthews    PHI    25.1    (28)
6    35    Kevin White    CHI    25.2    (30)
6    36    Michael Crabtree    OAK    30.0    (31)
6    37    Terrelle Pryor    WAS    28.2    (32)
6    38    Josh Gordon    CLE    26.4    (39)
7    39    Julian Edelman    NE    31.3    (35)
7    40    Laquon Treadwell    MIN    22.2    (37)
7    41    Tyler Lockett    SEA    24.9    (38)
7    42    Tyreek Hill    KC    23.5    (41)
7    43    Curtis Samuel    CAR    21.1    rook
7    44    JuJu Smith-Schuster    PIT    20.8    rook
7    45    Zay Jones    BUF    22.4    rook
7    46    Tyrell Williams    LAC    25.6    (33)
7    47    Carlos Henderson    DEN    22.7    rook
7    48    Taywan Taylor    TEN    22.5    rook
7    49    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    30.4    (40)
7    50    Jeremy Maclin    KC    29.3    (43)
7    51    Marvin Jones    DET    27.5    (44)
7    52    Cameron Meredith    CHI    24.9    (45)
7    53    Golden Tate    DET    29.1    (46)
7    54    Chris Godwin    TB    21.5    rook
8    55    Phillip Dorsett    IND    24.7    (42)
8    56    Jamison Crowder    WAS    24.2    (48)
8    57    John Brown    ARI    27.4    (50)
8    58    Willie Snead    NO    24.9    (67)
8    59    Leonte Carroo    MIA    23.6    (47)
8    60    Breshad Perriman    BAL    24.0    (52)
8    61    Kenny Britt    CLE    28.9    (49)
8    62    Eric Decker    NYJ    30.5    (55)
8    63    Tyler Boyd    CIN    23.8    (51)
8    64    Adam Thielen    MIN    27.0    (53)
8    65    Brandon Marshall    NYG    33.4    (59)
8    66    Taylor Gabriel    ATL    26.6    (54)
8    67    Malcolm Mitchell    NE    25.1    (57)
8    68    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    34.0    (61)
8    69    DeSean Jackson    TB    30.7    (66)
8    70    ArDarius Stewart    NYJ    23.7    rook
8    71    Cooper Kupp    RAM    24.2    rook
8    72    Dede Westbrook    JAX    23.8    rook
8    73    Pierre Garcon    SF    31.1    (84)
8    74    Kenny Golladay    DET    23.8    rook
8    75    Allen Hurns    JAX    25.8    (58)
8    76    Rishard Matthews    TEN    27.9    (56)
9    77    Chris Hogan    NE    28.9    (60)
9    78    Kenny Stills    MIA    25.4    (70)
9    79    Marqise Lee    JAX    25.8    (62)
9    80    Mike Wallace    BAL    31.1    (68)
9    81    Chad Williams    ARI    22.9    rook
9    82    DeAngelo Yancey    GB    22.8    rook
9    83    Paul Richardson    SEA    25.4    (77)
9    84    Josh Reynolds    RAM    22.5    rook
9    85    Amara Darboh    SEA    23.6    rook
9    86    Sammie Coates    PIT    24.4    (63)
9    87    Devin Funchess    CAR    23.3    (64)
9    88    Michael Floyd        27.8    (65)
9    89    Kamar Aiken    IND    28.3    (106)
9    90    Mack Hollins    PHI    24.0    rook
9    91    Josh Malone    CIN    21.4    rook
9    92    Tajae Sharpe    TEN    22.7    (69)
9    93    Robby Anderson    NYJ    24.3    (72)
9    94    Nelson Agholor    PHI    24.3    (74)
9    95    J.J. Nelson    ARI    25.4    (73)
9    96    Kendall Wright    CHI    27.8    (81)
9    97    Travis Benjamin    LAC    27.7    (75)
9    98    Quincy Enunwa    NYJ    25.3    (76)
9    99    Chad Hansen    NYJ    22.6    rook
9    100    Robert Davis    WAS    22.4    rook
9    101    Cole Beasley    DAL    28.4    (71)
9    102    Tavon Austin    RAM    26.5    (79)
9    103    Dorial Green-Beckham    PHI    24.4    (80)
9    104    Braxton Miller    HOU    24.8    (82)
9    105    Robert Woods    RAM    25.4    (83)
9    106    Ted Ginn    NO    32.4    (95)
9    107    Andre Holmes    BUF    29.2    unr
9    108    Andre Ellington    ARI    28.6    (RB64)
9    109    Austin Carr    NE    23.7    rook
10    110    Malachi Dupre    GB    21.9    rook
10    111    Geronimo Allison    GB    23.6    (87)
10    112    Terrance Williams    DAL    28.0    (86)
10    113    Mohamed Sanu    ATL    28.0    (96)
10    114    Jaelen Strong    HOU    23.6    (99)
10    115    Markus Wheaton    CHI    26.6    (101)
10    116    Torrey Smith    PHI    28.6    (105)
10    117    Bruce Ellington    SF    26.0    (88)
10    118    Brandon LaFell    CIN    30.8    (85)
10    119    Jehu Chesson    KC    23.7    rook
10    120    Dontrelle Inman    SD    28.6    (78)
10    121    Ryan Switzer    DAL    22.8    rook
10    122    Eli Rogers    PIT    24.7    (89)
10    123    Devin Smith    NYJ    25.5    (90)
10    124    Justin Blackmon    JAX    27.6    (91)
10    125    Chris Conley    KC    24.9    (92)
10    126    DeAndre Smelter    SF    25.7    (94)
10    127    Trevor Davis    GB    24.2    (97)
10    128    Chris Moore    BAL    24.2    (98)
10    129    Jeff Janis    GB    26.2    (100)
10    130    Cordarrelle Patterson    OAK    26.5    (102)
10    131    Jakeem Grant    MIA    24.8    (119)

More on the rookies in my other thread (in various places).

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Thanks for sharing. First thing that catches my eye is that you have Julio five spots higher than Antonio although they are the same age and Antonio has outscored Julio each of the last five season. Why? Age of QB?

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Great job ZWK!  Always love looking at your rankings.  i didn't go too deep, but my only minor quibbles would be:

  • Watkins (zero percent chance I take him in any league ahead of Antonio Brown despite being 5 years younger)
  • Devante Adams at #17.  There's a very real possibility that the Packers let him walk after this season.  If they don't, I think his value at #17 is justifiable.  If they do, I'm guessing he drops a healthy amount.  I don't think that risk is baked into his ranking quite enough
  • Beyond #20 you starting getting into guys with all sorts of questions, but I sure don't like Devante Parker as high as #20 

Maybe my beef is simply with guys named Devante??  Keep the rankings coming! 

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24 minutes ago, Danish Bengal said:

Thanks for sharing. First thing that catches my eye is that you have Julio five spots higher than Antonio although they are the same age and Antonio has outscored Julio each of the last five season. Why? Age of QB?

Brown seems more QB-dependent, and his QB is older & at higher risk of decline or retirement. (Also, Julio outscored Antonio in 2012 & 2013 in ppg; Brown does have the edge each of the past 3 years. And much of Brown's edge has come from TDs which are more variable from year-to-year; Julio had more ypg in 2015 & 2016.)

18 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Great job ZWK!  Always love looking at your rankings.  i didn't go too deep, but my only minor quibbles would be:

  • Watkins (zero percent chance I take him in any league ahead of Antonio Brown despite being 5 years younger)
  • Devante Adams at #17.  There's a very real possibility that the Packers let him walk after this season.  If they don't, I think his value at #17 is justifiable.  If they do, I'm guessing he drops a healthy amount.  I don't think that risk is baked into his ranking quite enough
  • Beyond #20 you starting getting into guys with all sorts of questions, but I sure don't like Devante Parker as high as #20 

Maybe my beef is simply with guys named Devante??  Keep the rankings coming! 

I've been high on Watkins for awhile. Though part of it is just that I'm not quite as high on Antonio Brown as many people are.

Adams was WR9 last year, so he has upside above his WR17 ranking if he stays in GB. The Packers WR corps looks pretty thin going forward, with Cobb's decline and Jordy aging, and they haven't been restocking the cupboard with highly-drafted WRs. That increases his chances of staying in GB, and if he does stay in GB then I think it's reasonably likely that we haven't seen his best fantasy season yet.

I think that Parker is significantly less valuable than the guys ahead of him (you can see that there are 2 tier drops from #17 to #20). I just have him slightly ahead of guys like Ross, Diggs, and Benjamin.

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I admire that you are not easily or quickly swayed by recent news and swings surrounding players such as Watkins ZWK.

Personally the Bills not picking up the 5th year option makes me more nervous about his health than I already was. No denying his talent and I hope he puts these injuries behind him, but I definitely not as bullish about Watkins as I was a month or so ago. 

I think Jeremy Maclin and Golden Tate are too low relative to the other players.

Could you talk about tier 4 and what that means? It is a pretty short tier.

4    18    Corey Coleman    CLE    23.2    (16)
4    19    Mike Williams    LAC    22.9    

Just curious what sets these two WR apart from the tier 5 WR?

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9 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I admire that you are not easily or quickly swayed by recent news and swings surrounding players such as Watkins ZWK.

Personally the Bills not picking up the 5th year option makes me more nervous about his health than I already was. No denying his talent and I hope he puts these injuries behind him, but I definitely not as bullish about Watkins as I was a month or so ago. 

I think Jeremy Maclin and Golden Tate are too low relative to the other players.

Could you talk about tier 4 and what that means? It is a pretty short tier.

4    18    Corey Coleman    CLE    23.2    (16)
4    19    Mike Williams    LAC    22.9    

Just curious what sets these two WR apart from the tier 5 WR?

A couple examples of tier 4 vs. tier 5:

Conventional wisdom puts Mike Williams a tier ahead of John Ross in rookie drafts. Ross is the clear #2 behind AJ Green, while Williams has a better shot at competing to be his team's go-to WR. Dalton isn't as good at Rivers, and isn't all that great at throwing it deep. Ross & Williams were both top 10 picks in the NFL draft, but Ross gets a lot of his value from forcing the defense to account for him on plays where he doesn't get the ball. My predraft ratings were higher on Ross than on Williams, but weren't wild about either of them,

Corey Coleman and DeVante Parker were both mid-first rounders in the NFL draft who haven't emerged yet as NFL stars. But Coleman has flashed about as much as Parker despite having one less season in the NFL (and being a year younger, and having worse quarterbacking). Similarly, Josh Doctson is someone who I had neck-and-neck with Coleman when they entered the NFL, but Doctson's rookie year was pretty much all disappointment while Coleman had ups and downs.

On Maclin & Tate: they look like WR3s in redraft, and are approaching 30 years old. You could take them ahead of the rookies if you're in win-now mode with a hole at WR, but on the whole I'd rather bet (for example) on 22-year-old Carlos Henderson becoming the next Golden Tate rather than riding out the end of 29-year-old Golden Tate's career.

On Watkins: I agree that Buffalo not picking up his option is a negative - it's why I moved him behind Hopkins. But NFL teams are (and should be) more risk-averse than fantasy owners when it comes to injuries, and $13.2M guaranteed for injury is a pretty big commitment to make to a player when injuries are your biggest concern about him.

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Comparing my current WR rankings with what I had in February, the biggest risers are:

WR10 Michael Thomas (NO, prev WR15): great Reception Perception numbers suggest that his talent might be even better than his rookie year production
WR29 Martavis Bryant (PIT, prev WR36): reinstated
WR58 Willie Snead (NO, prev WR67): more opportunities with Cooks gone
WR73 Pierre Garcon (SF, prev WR84): looks to be the WR1
WR89 Kamar Aiken (IND, prev WR106): playing with Luck gives him some upside, some question marks for everyone besides Hilton
WR107 Andre Holmes (BUF, prev unr): has a shot to be Buffalo's WR2 (or even their lead WR if Watkins misses time)

(These aren't huge rises in the rankings, though they're bigger than they seem since adding rookies to the pool pushes everyone down.)

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  • ZWK changed the title to ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)

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