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ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)


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4 hours ago, ZWK said:

DB vs. DB: This is the third year in a row where Baldwin has outproduced Bryant

I agree with this, and I'll also note that this is the third year in a row where Golden Tate has outproduced Bryant and he is the same age as well.

Dez is now a 29 year old WR3 who's value will likely only decline from here on out.  Maybe he's lost a step, maybe the situation just doesn't fit him, but he's locked into his contract in that situation until he is about to turn 33.

I would take Tate over Dez straight up were it not for the ability to sell Dez at a much higher perceived value than his actual value for no reason other than his name.  He is a sell, sell, sell.

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4 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I agree with this, and I'll also note that this is the third year in a row where Golden Tate has outproduced Bryant and he is the same age as well.

Dez is now a 29 year old WR3 who's value will likely only decline from here on out.  Maybe he's lost a step, maybe the situation just doesn't fit him, but he's locked into his contract in that situation until he is about to turn 33.

I would take Tate over Dez straight up were it not for the ability to sell Dez at a much higher perceived value than his actual value for no reason other than his name.  He is a sell, sell, sell.

This is interesting. None of this has changed since Baldwin-Dez was discussed in this thread in February, so apparently Dez's performance season to date has really changed some opinions.

As for the bolded, that definitely is not true in my dynasty league in which I own Dez. I have been trying to trade him for two years and no one has been willing to pay anything close to his perceived value in typical dynasty rankings and in this forum.

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1 minute ago, Just Win Baby said:

This is interesting. None of this has changed since Baldwin-Dez was discussed in this thread in February, so apparently Dez's performance season to date has really changed some opinions.

As for the bolded, that definitely is not true in my dynasty league in which I own Dez. I have been trying to trade him for two years and no one has been willing to pay anything close to his perceived value in typical dynasty rankings and in this forum.

 What kind of offers have you made/ turned down? I offered a likely late first that may end up top 5 and was rebuffed hard. 

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I am still ranking Dez higher than where his recent production + age would put him. We saw with Larry Fitzgerald that sometimes elite receivers bounce back from a three-year downswing in production, even when it looked like it was permanent age-related decline in their late 20s / early 30s. But that sort of bounceback looks less and less likely each year, so Dez slides farther and farther down the rankings.

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

 What kind of offers have you made/ turned down? I offered a likely late first that may end up top 5 and was rebuffed hard. 

I would take that instantly.

I offered all of these trades between July 2016 and August 2017 in the league in which I own Dez, which is a 10 team superflex league that is non-PPR but awards 0.5 points per first down rushing/receiving:

  • Dez, Tyrod, Doyle for Mariota
  • Dez, Tyrod, McFadden for Mariota
  • Dez, Tyrod, Doyle for Winston
  • Dez, Tyrod, McFadden for Winston
  • Dez, Tyrod, Booker for Winston
  • Dez, Tyrod, McFadden for R Wilson
  • Dez for K Allen (last season while Allen was hurt)
  • Dez, J Stewart for A Robinson
  • Dez, J Stewart for Julio
  • Dez, J Stewart for Hopkins
  • Dez, Ajayi for AJ Green
  • Dez, L Green for Beckham
  • Dez, Meredith, Doyle, 2017 2.8 for 2017 1.2
  • Dez, 2017 1.8, 2017 2.8 for 2017 1.2, 2017 2.2
  • Dez, 2017 1.8, 2017 2.8 for 2017 1.4, 2017 2.4
  • Dez for 2017 1.6
  • Dez for 2017 1.7

Sounds like at the very least you would have taken the last two offers. I realize not all of these were compelling offers, but I gave up after getting no takers and no useful counters and resigned myself to holding him until either he explodes again or retires.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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4 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I would take that instantly.

I offered all of these trades between July 2016 and August 2017 in the league in which I own Dez, which is a 10 team superflex league that is non-PPR but awards 0.5 points per first down rushing/receiving:

  • Dez, Tyrod, Doyle for Mariota
  • Dez, Tyrod, McFadden for Mariota
  • Dez, Tyrod, Doyle for Winston
  • Dez, Tyrod, McFadden for Winston
  • Dez, Tyrod, Booker for Winston
  • Dez, Tyrod, McFadden for R Wilson
  • Dez for K Allen (last season while Allen was hurt)
  • Dez, J Stewart for A Robinson
  • Dez, J Stewart for Julio
  • Dez, J Stewart for Hopkins
  • Dez, Ajayi for AJ Green
  • Dez, L Green for Beckham
  • Dez, Meredith, Doyle, 2017 2.8 for 2017 1.2
  • Dez, 2017 1.8, 2017 2.8 for 2017 1.2, 2017 2.2
  • Dez, 2017 1.8, 2017 2.8 for 2017 1.4, 2017 2.4
  • Dez for 2017 1.6
  • Dez for 2017 1.7

Sounds like at the very least you would have taken the last two offers. I realize not all of these were compelling offers, but I gave up after getting no takers and resigned myself to holding him until either he explodes again or retires.

I think I would have rejected every one of those.  In all of those offers you were looking for mid first round value in a strong draft or better.  I offered a late first from a seemingly lock playoff team that is sliding recently and might end up top 5 if things go well.  But if it ends up top 5, I wouldn't trade it for Bryant. 

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6 hours ago, ZWK said:

I'm curious if folks would put Funchess on a higher tier or just move him up a few spots.

I would rank him ahead of Benjamin but I wouldn't move Funchess up to a higher tier.

I think I would just move Benjamin down. Tier 7 is pretty deep.

While Larry Fitzgerald is going to be 35 years old next year and the outlook at QB and Palmer seems uncertain, still feels wrong to me for him to be so low in tier 7. I know I would take Fitzgerald ahead of a lot of the players who have ahead of him in that tier, even as a one year player. Age 35 is another drop off point however based on the historical data and worthy of a downgrade on that basis.

For me this is just specific to Fitzgerald and how great his career has been and how he continues to produce even now. I do not have the same view of Brandon Marshall for example who is younger than Fitzgerald and has had a productive career. Based on my brief observations of Marshall with the Jets last year and then with the Giants this year, I think Marshall is done and while he still may play for another year or more, I don't think he will ever return to previously level of performance again. We seem to have some agreement here as you have Marshall in tier 9 much lower than Fitzgerald.

I think you have Marvin Jones too high although perhaps not that much too high. I see that you have moved up both Golden Tate and Marvin Jones from your last ranking of them in the 50s to mid 30s now. What changed that has caused this move? 

I don't have an issue with Tates ranking here because he has been so consistent for several seasons now and not much reason to think that will change for him in the near to distant future. Jones is younger than Tate and there is a tier that separates them. Just seems like Jones is really high in tier seven. Curious about your reasoning why.

Adam Thielen also had a big jump from 59 to 14 now. I can argue that Thielen doesn't belong there. It is 1.5 years of pretty solid production and something that does not seem like it will change, even as the QBs may change. I am still wondering if Diggs isn't better than Thielen, but he certainly hasn't been this year and Diggs has some injury risks as well. I feel on the fence about that even though I have thought Diggs should be ahead of Thielen for the last two years, he is starting to change my mind about that.

I wonder why John Brown has moved up in your rankings? I think that his connection with Carson Palmer has been a key part of his opportunity. I am not really seeing that carry forward if Palmer is not the QB and so in the long term I am not confident in his value. I would not take him over Fitzgerald despite the difference in age.

No way I see Josh Gordon as at top 30 WR. The risk and lack of even being able to be on a roster has me thinking he is not worth a top 100 ranking. His career year be damned. I would rather use roster space on players that might be able to play for me at some point. That ranking really doesn't make a whole lot of sense to take him before consistent producers such as Golden Tate, Fitzgerald and so many others you have ranked after him.

I think rankings after the top 70 or so are anybodies guess so I won't quibble about some different opinions there. I think it is more important to try to get the top 60 or so ranked as accurately as you can. The players who will always be rostered and have a good change to start for a team at some point during the season.

Great stuff as usual. I hope some of my questions are constructive.

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

I am still ranking Dez higher than where his recent production + age would put him. We saw with Larry Fitzgerald that sometimes elite receivers bounce back from a three-year downswing in production, even when it looked like it was permanent age-related decline in their late 20s / early 30s. But that sort of bounceback looks less and less likely each year, so Dez slides farther and farther down the rankings.

I don't think Dez Bryant is the same as Fitzgerald in terms of skill that will cause him to age as well as Fitzgerald has. So I don't think it is appropriate to apply this logic in regards to him.

Dez Bryants best years were largely because of high volume of targets and high TD numbers. It has been 3 years now since he has had either. I do not see his peak years of age 24-26 ever returning.

I use the 3 year window model for projections though, so those seasons are not going to be in the sample that I would use for him anymore.

Edited by Biabreakable
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John Brown: He's pretty close to where he was at the start of the season. The good news is that he's been able to play (there had been concern that the sickle cell issue would keep him off the field) and reestablished himself as the Cardinals' #2 WR (there had been concern about him getting overtaken by Jaron Brown or JJ Nelson). The bad news is that his production has been horrible and he had a lingering quad issue for the first half of the season (which is probably related to the sickle cell trait). Given quarterback situation, IMO the good news outweighs the bad news by a bit.

Dez Bryant (in relation to Fitzgerald): There are two interesting things about Fitzgerald. One is that he continues to be a top WR in his mid 30s. The other is that he had 3 down years at ages 29-31 (he didn't reach 1000 yards in any of those seasons, even though Palmer was his QB for 1 of them) and then bounced back. Dez is now in his third straight down year (at ages 27-29); Fitzgerald's example suggests that he still has a chance to bounce back. I do not expect Dez to age as gracefully as Larry has, but next season Dez will still just be 30 years old so he could still have a couple more big seasons in him even if he just returns to an Andre Johnson or Roddy White aging curve.

Larry Fitzgerald: I could see putting him several spots higher, especially if you have a short window. Part of what's keeping him down in my rankings is Arizona's shaky quarterback situation, which matters much more for a guy who probably has a 1.5 year window than for younger players. FBG just has him as a solid WR2 rest-of-season.

Marvin Jones: He's producing at the same level as Golden Tate this year. WR18 or so.

Thielen: He hasn't just been "pretty solid"; he's a top 7 receiver this year in terms of fantasy production, DYAR, and PFF grade. With Case Keenum throwing him the ball for much of the year.

Josh Gordon: He has been reinstated (his first practice was today), he has clearly put serious effort into his rehab this time, and he is still just 26. Substance abuse problems are hard to beat, but he has a legit shot to beat his and plenty of talent if he succeeds at sticking around in the NFL. I think he has a better shot than anyone else outside my top 5 tiers of putting up multiple elite receiving seasons. I had him at WR39 before the season started based on his upside and the fact that he still seemed to be trying to make it in the NFL, so it shouldn't be a surprise to see me with him in the top 30 given the news.

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John Brown is currently the 4th most targeted player for the Cardinals. Part of that may be due to him being injured and missing two games, but he is a player who has been injured a lot and at 27 I think he caries more risk of being injured based on his track record. Jaron Brown has more targets and yards than John Brown does right now. 

The positive thing about John Brown for me has been his relationship with Carson Palmer. If Palmer is out of the picture then I don't see him having that advantage any more. So where I see things differently than you is in terms of his long term outlook. Fitzgerald is the best WR the Cardinals have and I expect him to continue to be that as long as he plays. RIght now that looks like 2018 as he recently signed an extension. I know he has talked about retiring, but he loves the game and can still play at a high level, so I could see him still playing beyond 2018.

Where I have a disconnect with your reasoning is that you see downside of Palmer in relation to Fitzgerald, yet don't see it with Brown. I think Fitzgerald is more QB proof than Brown is. Brown is mostly a deep ball receiver who needs a QB like Palmer to be successful, Fitzgerald doesn't. Then adding the special relationship he has with Palmer into that, I just see more downside for him without Palmer than you seem to.

In regards to Dez Bryant we seem to be on the same page here that he isn't likely to age as well as Fitzgerald, I don't necessarily have an issue with where you ranked him. You did drop him to WR 23 and there aren't any WR you have ranked below him that I would without question say are more valuable. Looking at the numbers he is on pace for 155 targets this year which would be back to similar level as his 3 very good seasons. His yards per reception are down this year however and his catch rate is low, around 50% for 3 years now. When I watch him play I don't see him getting open very consistently and he still struggles to make difficult catches. In his good years I think he did a lot of damage with YAC and that may not be there for him as much any more. But maybe Dak improves and Bryant can maintain his high volume going forward with improved efficiency.

Marvin Jones currently being similar to Golden Tate in scoring seems to ignore that he was WR 40 last year with Detroit (standard scoring) and the targets yards per reception and catch rate look very similar to last year as well, the main difference being that he has 6 TD so far. I don't really trust that being consistent year to year because it hasn't been, and definitely not compared to the consistency of Golden Tate. You do have Galloway ranked pretty high, is he not a threat to Jones TD numbers? I have some doubts about his long term role with the Lions as well.

Adam Thielen has been great. I wasn't really arguing with where you have him ranked. The way he wins seems sustainable and should work with any QB. Not sure why I continue to be pleasantly surprised by his performance. 

Your risk tolerance in regards to Gordon is reckless in my opinion. He only had one very good season when the Browns where they threw the ball almost 700 times. Just don't see that happening again.

Edited by Biabreakable
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I agree that Larry Fitzgerald's skills & style of play make him less affected by a change in QB than John Brown. But the Cardinals' 2017-18 QB situation is still more relevant for Fitzgerald than for Brown, because Fitz is most likely going to play the rest of his career with the Cardinals' 2017-18 QBs while Brown is hitting free agency and could easily be playing for another 4+ years.

Josh Gordon: risk is inevitable. Were you around this summer when we looked back over the rankings that I made at the start of this thread, 4 years earlier? The majority of receivers that I had ranked in the 20s and 30s turned out to be busts (with at most 1 WR3 season remaining). Also the majority of receivers that I had ranked in the 10s. How many of the 10 guys that I currently have after Gordon are safe bets to do better than that? How many of the 10 guys that I have ranked ahead of him are safe bets to have multiple top 25 WR seasons? Some of them are safer bets than Gordon, certainly, but you don't win championships by maximizing your probability of having an okay player.

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Will Fuller seems low.  He's going to have Watson throwing the ball and D Hop on the opposite side for the forseeable future.    Based on measurables, his best comps pre-draft were probably Hilton, Desean and (maybe) Marvin.  1st round pick.  Was absolutely killing it before Watson got hurt.  That's an awful lot working for him at this point.  I can't see having Corey Davis ahead of him for example.

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18 minutes ago, Tool said:

Other than Beckham can you count on anyone as sure uberstud?

Seems unusually weak at the top these days.

Evans is having a weird year, but he's pretty damn safe overall.  Might be an unexpected buying opp if his owners have gotten skittish.

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3 hours ago, Tool said:

Other than Beckham can you count on anyone as sure uberstud?

Seems unusually weak at the top these days.

I think Hopkins is pretty damn safe.  He had the down year with Osweiler, but has put up monster numbers with Fitzpatrick, Hoyer, Savage and Watson.  I think OBJ is the best WR in the NFL, but Hopkins is in the race for #2.  In the one place I own him, I wouldn't move him for Evans.  

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So, in 2015 Jarvis Landry was WR8 in my PPR league.  In 2016, he was WR16.  And so far in 2017, he's WR5.

I'd love reasoning on why he's WR30 on your list.  To me, that's criminally undervalued and I'd look to buy him from anyone who values him that way.  

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13 hours ago, bostonfred said:

I think I would have rejected every one of those.  In all of those offers you were looking for mid first round value in a strong draft or better.  I offered a late first from a seemingly lock playoff team that is sliding recently and might end up top 5 if things go well.  But if it ends up top 5, I wouldn't trade it for Bryant. 

Well, this tangent started when someone claimed it is possible to sell him for his perceived value, which is higher than his actual value, and I said that hasn't been my experience.

At the beginning of the window I listed, his consensus PPR ranking at DynastyPros was WR8. @ZWK ranked him as WR10 shortly around that time.

At the end of the window I listed, his consensus PPR ranking at DynastyPros was WR12. @ZWK ranked him as WR14 around that time.

At this point, the consensus PPR rankings at DynastyPros show these guys as WR8-WR14: Cooper, Cooks, Hilton, Davis, Diggs, Hill, Watkins. If I made similar offers today, substituting players from within that range, would you reject every one of them?

It doesn't really matter, just making the point that it seems that Dez's trade value is actually less than his perceived (rankings) value, not greater. Which suggests that he is a clear hold for those who own him.

ETA: Using PPR rankings because for WR, it most closely approximates the first down scoring.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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2 hours ago, Steelers4Life said:

So, in 2015 Jarvis Landry was WR8 in my PPR league.  In 2016, he was WR16.  And so far in 2017, he's WR5.

I'd love reasoning on why he's WR30 on your list.  To me, that's criminally undervalued and I'd look to buy him from anyone who values him that way.  

How he is a top 10 WR on this historically awful Miami team is amazing. As safe a plug and play WR2 as there is. Anywhere outside the Top 20 is surprising.

Throw in the fact that he is a free agent after this season and has never missed a game in 4 years (knock on wood) and I'm not sure I'd have him ranked behind the likes of John Ross or Mike Williams.

 

Edited by kneeshooter
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7 hours ago, kneeshooter said:

How he is a top 10 WR on this historically awful Miami team is amazing. As safe a plug and play WR2 as there is. Anywhere outside the Top 20 is surprising.

Throw in the fact that he is a free agent after this season and has never missed a game in 4 years (knock on wood) and I'm not sure I'd have him ranked behind the likes of John Ross or Mike Williams.

 

Yep.  I'm pretty confident that there aren't 15 WRs I'd take over him in a PPR league.  Some have bigger names, but he's been safe and consistent AND has a huge upside too.  He's a great WR2 and a workable WR1.

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7 hours ago, kneeshooter said:

How he is a top 10 WR on this historically awful Miami team is amazing. As safe a plug and play WR2 as there is. Anywhere outside the Top 20 is surprising.

Throw in the fact that he is a free agent after this season and has never missed a game in 4 years (knock on wood) and I'm not sure I'd have him ranked behind the likes of John Ross or Mike Williams.

 

Not amazing when you look at the targets he is getting. It would be pretty hard to get fewer points on 11 targets a game.

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4 hours ago, jtd13 said:

Not amazing when you look at the targets he is getting. It would be pretty hard to get fewer points on 11 targets a game.

I really like Jarvis Landry. Great football player.

That said he is on pace for 173 targets 907 yards. He does have 6 TD now which is a new high for him in a season with 6 more games to go. 5.25 yards per target this year that is very low for a WR.

ZWKs rankings are for .5 PPR so the high volume of targets and catches do not mean as much as they do in full PPR leagues.

I do think Landry should be higher. About WR 20-25 I'd say. He is a solid consistent performer but the upside is limited.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

I really like Jarvis Landry. Great football player.

That said he is on pace for 173 targets 907 yards. He does have 6 TD now which is a new high for him in a season with 6 more games to go. 5.25 yards per target this year that is very low for a WR.

ZWKs rankings are for .5 PPR so the high volume of targets and catches do not mean as much as they do in full PPR leagues.

I do think Landry should be higher. About WR 20-25 I'd say. He is a solid consistent performer but the upside is limited.

He's currently WR5 through 11 weeks. How much more upside do you need?

He's looking at two top 10 finishes in last 3 years. The targets may eventually dry up, but until then, most leagues give points for receptions, yards, and TDs, not yards per target.

Edited by gianmarco
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Yeah, Landry should be higher. I've moved him up to 25, top of tier 6. Possibly he should be a bit higher still? He would definitely be higher than that in full PPR. As Bia notes these are 0.5 PPR rankings, which means that he has been a WR2 over the past 3 seasons, not a WR1. Landry is worth about 40% more VBD in full PPR than in 0.5 PPR.

I do have Beckham, Evans, and Hopkins all on the same tier at the top - they are all in that young uberstud category (though none of them quite as high as Beckham was before the start of this season).

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In 0 PPR Marvin Jones has outscored Jarvis Landry by 6 fpts this year. In 0.5 PPR, Landry has outscored Jones by 8 points. In 1 PPR, Landry has outscored Jones by 23 points. League format matters a lot.

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7 hours ago, gianmarco said:

He's currently WR5 through 11 weeks. How much more upside do you need?

He's looking at two top 10 finishes in last 3 years. The targets may eventually dry up, but until then, most leagues give points for receptions, yards, and TDs, not yards per target.

In PPR he is.

ZWKs rankings are not PPR.

I already detailed everything in my previous post. Do the math.

The upside I am talking about is related to the yards per target for Jarvis Landry if he were to have less targets in upcoming seasons.

Going into 2017 Landry was the 68th WR in yards per target at 7.5 that is really low.

With this season now Landry is down to 6.9 yards per target.

As I already noted Landry does have 6 TD over 10 games, the highest number of TD in a season so far in his career. If he ends up with double digit TD this year it will look a bit of an outlier, however it would be upside to rank him higher based upon.

When I am talking about upside it is related to yards gained by Landry he is averaging less than 60 yards per game this year despite the high targets and receptions.

The yards per target are so low that should Landry lose targets and that stay the same, he will be generating even less yards.

On a related note the Dolphins are not running the ball a ton with Ajayi anymore and so Landry is being used in part to replace that, thus the higher targets for him this year compared to last year. Last year with a viable running threat Landry had a very respectable 8.6 yards per target. 

Edited by Biabreakable
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22 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Well, this tangent started when someone claimed it is possible to sell him for his perceived value, which is higher than his actual value, and I said that hasn't been my experience.

At the beginning of the window I listed, his consensus PPR ranking at DynastyPros was WR8. @ZWK ranked him as WR10 shortly around that time.

At the end of the window I listed, his consensus PPR ranking at DynastyPros was WR12. @ZWK ranked him as WR14 around that time.

At this point, the consensus PPR rankings at DynastyPros show these guys as WR8-WR14: Cooper, Cooks, Hilton, Davis, Diggs, Hill, Watkins. If I made similar offers today, substituting players from within that range, would you reject every one of them?

It doesn't really matter, just making the point that it seems that Dez's trade value is actually less than his perceived (rankings) value, not greater. Which suggests that he is a clear hold for those who own him.

ETA: Using PPR rankings because for WR, it most closely approximates the first down scoring.

I don't see what his July rankings have to do with anything.  The point is that he's a touchdown dependent middling WR3 who's about to turn 30 and he's being traded for a lot more than that.  He's basically Ted Ginn the last 3 years but he's still being moved for much more than that.

Here are the trades Dez has pulled in the last month or so in various trade threads.

Dez for Engram + two late 1sts
Dez for 2018 1st, 2018 2nd, James White (consensus was almost 100% that it was a steal for the side getting Dez)
Dez + Matt Ryan for Devonta Freeman (1qb league)
Dez for Corey Davis and 2018 2nd
Dez and 2018 3rd for Landry, Westbrook, 2018 1st
Dez and 2018 1st for Antonio Brown
Dez for early 2018 1st

In just about any trade involving him, replace the word "Dez" with the words "touchdowns dependent middling WR3 that is about to turn 30" for a comparison of his perceived (name) value vs. his actual value.

I know I know, Larry Fitzgerald.  One guy bounces back from 3 years like this and all of the sudden it's some massive value boost for all of these guys instead of one small potential outlier option like it should be.

The big difference with Fitzgerald is that Fitz still looked good, he just had terrible QB play and wasn't getting targeted much to boot.  Dez just looks bad.  And he's getting targeted a ton.  In the Landry discussion above someone mentioned "it would be hard to be targeted that much and NOT me a high WR1".  Well Dez is doing it in spades.  He is 5th in the NFL in targets this year.  In Fitzgerald's bad year before his bounce-back he was 47th in targets.  

 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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Something else to consider in regards to where Landry finished in PPR scoring the last two seasons, passing stats league wide have been down the last two years. So WR scoring as whole has been down, thus Landry finishing higher in relation to other WR than he might have in previous seasons.

2011 17410 pass attempts 117601 yards 745 TD
2012 17788 pass attempts 118418 yards 757 TD
2013 18136 pass attempts 120626 yards 804 TD
2014 17879 pass attempts 121247 yards 807 TD
2015 18298 pass attempts 124843 yards 842 TD
2016 18295 pass attempts 123639 yards 786 TD

so far in 2017 10991 pass attempts 72969 yards 483 TD

this projects out to 17586 pass attempts 116750 yards 773 TD by the end of the year. Numbers more similar to the 2011-2012 seasons. Yards are lower than any of the last 6 seasons, TD are higher than those two seasons, but significantly lower than 2013-2015 and slightly lower than last season.

If we assume that Landry maintains his current pace of scoring for the rest of the season he will end up with 173 targets 107 receptions 907 yards 9.6 TD which would be worth 255 points. 

In seasons 2013-2015 this would finish WR 13

In the dynasty rankings I worked on last January I had Jarvis Landry as WR 14 based on the above information, age and using the last 3 seasons of data as my guide for that. That was for PPR. I had the view that Landrys yards per target were increasing as he gained experience as they were the highest they have been in 2016 showing he was capable of having good yards per target if used less frequently and in a more downfield WR role.

For standard scoring or .5 PPR scoring leagues this ranking would be lower. Around WR 20-25

I do really like Landry. Always have, including as a rookie prospect. However the fact remains that his yards per target have been low, which limits the upside of the yardage numbers he can produce, which is more relevant in non PPR scoring leagues, such as what ZWKs rankings are geared for.

eta- It bears noting that Landry prior to this season has averaged 4.3 TD per year. So the projection above based on his current pace would be over twice that amount, and I would consider that an outlier. Using a 3 year average I would project that number to be 5.9 TD moving forward. We don't know if he will actually score 4 more TD this season or not yet.

Edited by Biabreakable
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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I don't see what his July rankings have to do with anything.  The point is that he's a touchdown dependent middling WR3 who's about to turn 30 and he's being traded for a lot more than that.

I was simply trying to make the point that he was generally ranked as a borderline WR1 throughout the period I commented on but I could not trade him for that type of value. The fact that he shouldn't have really been ranked that high because he was an old-ish WR2/WR3 dependent on TDs is exactly why I wanted to trade him. I was unable to get anything close to the value of the trades you listed, so maybe it was league dependent. Or maybe I'm just bad at trading. :unsure: 

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Thanksgiving RB rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 11/17/17. Prev from 9/19/17 (2 weeks into the season).

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    LeVeon Bell    PIT    25.7    (1)
2    2    David Johnson    ARI    25.9    (2)
2    3    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    22.3    (3)
2    4    Todd Gurley    RAM    23.3    (5)
2    5    Leonard Fournette    JAX    22.8    (4)
3    6    Alvin Kamara    NO    22.3    (16)
3    7    Kareem Hunt    KC    22.3    (11)
3    8    Devonta Freeman    ATL    25.7    (6)
3    9    Christian McCaffrey    CAR    21.4    (7)
3    10    Melvin Gordon    LAC    24.6    (8)
4    11    Dalvin Cook    MIN    22.3    (12)
4    12    Mark Ingram    NO    27.9    (27)
4    13    Jordan Howard    CHI    23.0    (15)
4    14    Joe Mixon    CIN    21.3    (9)
4    15    Carlos Hyde    SF    26.7    (14)
4    16    Derrick Henry    TEN    23.3    (13)
4    17    Jay Ajayi    PHI    24.4    (10)
5    18    Lamar Miller    HOU    26.6    (20)
5    19    Ameer Abdullah    DET    24.4    (18)
5    20    LeSean McCoy    BUF    29.3    (17)
6    21    C.J. Anderson    DEN    26.8    (19)
6    22    Aaron Jones    GB    23.0    (67)
6    23    Tevin Coleman    ATL    24.6    (23)
7    24    Alex Collins    BAL    23.2    (89)
7    25    Chris Carson    SEA    23.2    (34)
7    26    Marlon Mack    IND    21.9    (30)
7    27    D'Onta Foreman    HOU    21.6    (31)
7    28    Isaiah Crowell    CLE    24.9    (21)
7    29    Rex Burkhead    NE    27.4    (51)
7    30    Ty Montgomery    GB    24.8    (22)
7    31    Samaje Perine    WAS    22.2    (43)
7    32    Kenyan Drake    MIA    23.8    (65)
8    33    Duke Johnson    CLE    24.2    (38)
8    34    Chris Thompson    WAS    27.1    (52)
8    35    Orleans Darkwa    NYG    25.7    unr
8    36    Tarik Cohen    CHI    22.3    (33)
8    37    C.J. Prosise    SEA    23.5    (28)
8    38    Dion Lewis    NE    27.1    (54)
8    39    DeMarco Murray    TEN    29.7    (26)
8    40    Doug Martin    TB    28.8    (25)
8    41    Marshawn Lynch    OAK    31.6    (36)
8    42    Bilal Powell    NYJ    29.0    (45)
8    43    Rob Kelley    WAS    25.1    (29)
8    44    Spencer Ware    KC    26.0    (40)
8    45    Jerick McKinnon    MIN    25.5    (64)
9    46    Austin Ekeler    LAC    22.5    (85)
9    47    Latavius Murray    MIN    26.7    (55)
9    48    James Conner    PIT    22.5    (49)
9    49    Theo Riddick    DET    26.5    (32)
9    50    Mike Gillislee    NE    27.0    (24)
9    51    James White    NE    25.8    (35)
9    52    Thomas Rawls    SEA    24.3    (39)
9    53    Adrian Peterson    ARI    32.6    (59)
9    54    Matt Breida    SF    22.7    (63)
9    55    Giovani Bernard    CIN    26.0    (41)
9    56    Jamaal Charles    DEN    30.9    (44)
9    57    Danny Woodhead    BAL    32.9    (47)
9    58    Jamaal Williams    GB    22.6    (48)
9    59    Jeremy Hill    CIN    25.1    (42)
9    60    Eddie Lacy    SEA    27.5    (50)
9    61    Frank Gore    IND    34.5    (53)
9    62    Wayne Gallman    NYG    23.1    (57)
9    63    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    23.8    (58)
9    64    Damien Williams    MIA    25.6    unr
9    65    Devontae Booker    DEN    25.5    (69)
9    66    Elijah McGuire    NYJ    23.5    (72)
9    67    J.D. McKissic    SEA    24.3    unr
9    68    Jonathan Stewart    CAR    30.6    (62)
9    69    Matt Forte    NYJ    31.9    (66)
9    70    Alfred Morris    DAL    28.9    (80)
9    71    Chris Ivory    JAX    29.6    (87)
10    72    Jalen Richard    OAK    24.1    (70)
10    73    DeAngelo Henderson    DEN    25.0    (61)
10    74    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    23.8    (68)
10    75    Javorius Allen    BAL    26.2    (56)
10    76    Terrance West    BAL    26.8    (46)
10    77    T.J. Yeldon    JAX    24.1    (60)
10    78    Shane Vereen    NYG    28.7    (71)
10    79    DeAndre Washington    OAK    24.7    (74)
10    80    Paul Perkins    NYG    23.0    (37)
10    81    Byron Marshall    WAS    23.8    unr
10    82    Andre Ellington    HOU    28.8    (95)
10    83    LeGarrette Blount    PHI    30.9    (78)
10    84    Benny Cunningham    CHI    27.4    (96)
10    85    Charles Sims    TB    27.2    (73)
10    86    Malcolm Brown    RAM    24.5    (81)
10    87    Charcandrick West    KC    26.5    (79)
10    88    Devante Mays    GB    23.5    (84)
10    89    Darren Sproles    PHI    34.4    (75)
10    90    Jacquizz Rodgers    TB    27.8    (76)
10    91    Dwayne Washington    DET    23.6    (88)
10    92    Lance Dunbar    RAM    27.8    (107)
10    93    Jonathan Williams        23.8    (90)
10    94    Robert Turbin    IND    27.9    (91)
10    95    Donnel Pumphrey    PHI    22.9    (92)
11    96    Brian Hill        22.0    (83)
11    97    Darren McFadden    DAL    30.2    (82)
11    98    Joe Williams    SF    24.2    (93)
11    99    Zach Zenner    DET    26.2    (94)
11    100    T.J. Logan    ARI    23.2    (98)
11    101    Matt Jones        24.7    (99)
11    102    Karlos Williams        24.5    (103)
11    103    Christine Michael        27.0    (104)
11    104    Alfred Blue    HOU    26.6    (106)

Very rookie heavy near the top, even moreso than it was before the season when I was getting pushback for having so many highly ranked rookies.

It feels like there's a massive dropoff after RB20. The top 20 are all guys who are either strong starters now, or promising going forward. After that we have guys who are low-end starters at best this year, and who have major question marks about their future.

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25 minutes ago, ZWK said:

2    2    David Johnson    ARI    25.9    (2)
2    3    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    22.3    (3)
2    4    Todd Gurley    RAM    23.3    (5)

IMO Elliott and Gurley should be in tier 1, with Bell and Johnson in tier 2.

Gurley is roughly 2.5 years younger than Bell and Johnson and is currently RB1 this season. He was top 5 as a rookie, despite missing 3 full games and playing less than 100% in at least one other. He wasn't good in 2016 but that now seems to have to do more with offensive coaching/game plan/playcalling and surrounding personnel than with Gurley himself. He is paired with a good offensive coach, a good young QB, and good surrounding talent for the foreseeable future.

Elliott is roughly 3.5 years younger. He has some knucklehead factor concerns, but his current suspension is for pre-NFL behavior. Meanwhile, he was #3 in ppg as a rookie last season, and is currently #1 in ppg this season. He is paired with a good offensive coach and a good young QB for the foreseeable future.

35 minutes ago, ZWK said:

3    10    Melvin Gordon    LAC    24.6    (8)

This feels a little high. He was top 5 last season and this season to date based on volume that seems unsustainable given how poor his efficiency has been. When Woodhead was healthy in 2015, he outsnapped Gordon. Last season, Woodhead got hurt early, removing the time share. This season, Ekeler seems to be emerging into a complementary role that will take opportunities from Gordon.

It will be telling to see what the Chargers do about his 5th year option. IMO they should not pick it up.

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I was really hoping Derrick Henry would have established himself more this year.  

Not saying that he should have took over for Murray, moreso that he would have flashed so much that people got angry that he didn't get Murray's job if that makes sense.  But he's just been kind of there.

Edited by Ted Lange as your Bartender
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5 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

I probably wouldn’t trade Gurley for anyone, but resorting all those guys up top in the rankings are nitpicking especially when top 5 dynasty RB don’t really get traded too often. 

Sure, I agree it is splitting hairs to some degree. Yet there they are, ranked 1-4 and across 2 different tiers. :shrug: 

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5 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Sure, I agree it is splitting hairs to some degree. Yet there they are, ranked 1-4 and across 2 different tiers. :shrug: 

Yeah, I own Zeke and Gurley.  Wouldn't trade either of them straight up for DJ.  Only way I'd trade Zeke for Bell is for playoff purposes this year.  (actually debated that, but decided to just keep Zeke)

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Gurley has been up and down with the Rams' offense, and I think that LA is not going to be able to sustain what they did over the first half of this season. Bell is more talented (in my opinion), he hasn't had a down year like Gurley's 2016, and he is still getting a larger workload than Gurley even though the Rams' RB depth has been worse. I have Bell ahead of Gurley rest-of-season, and beyond this season I think that Gurley's larger risk of decline is more important than him being 2.4 years younger.

RBs 2-4 are basically a tossup. Zeke is out through week 16 and is one more incident away from a yearlong suspension. David Johnson is oldest and looks to be out for the year (I hadn't seen that report till after I posted; might be enough to move him down a spot or two). If I'm contending this year then I probably do take Gurley at #2 for his win-now value.

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I think you will be heavy on rookies again after 2018 drsfted. I could see almost 8 guys in your top 20 soon. It seems that deep and nice landing spots abound. Quite a few guys after top 9, I lack confidence in myself. 

 

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Jordan Howard is currently RB13 for this season (right behind Chris Thompson, Carlos Hyde, and Lamar Miller). Melvin Gordon has outscored him by 30 fpts so far this year, Mark Ingram by 38 (for comparison, Howard has outscored Buck Allen by 32 fpts). As a receiver he looks even worse than last year, which caps his value. He's like Alfred Morris in Washington - good for the team, not that great in fantasy. And (unlike with most RBs), if his quarterback improves it's not clear if that will increase or decrease his fantasy production.

Miami backfield: Most likely their RB of the future isn't on the roster, but Drake has a shot at it. The fact that Drake & Williams are caught in a value-killing committee is both bad for their short-term value, and bad as a sign about their future prospects.

GB backfield: A great offense tends to translate into fantasy value for RBs, which works in favor of every Packer RB (once Rodgers is back). Aaron Jones currently looks like their best back, and is the most likely to be a valuable lead back for them next year. Montgomery has a shot too; Williams less so. But again, it seems more likely that their RB of the future isn't on the roster, plus there's the risk of a committee backfield next year which will prevent any of them from having much fantasy value.

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Nice work and thanks for sharing ZWK. A couple guys I think I would have higher are:

4 hours ago, ZWK said:

4    11    Dalvin Cook    MIN    22.3    (12)

Maybe not the rank so much, but I'm surprised to see him a tier behind the other rookies. Is this based on the injury, or something about him on the field?

4 hours ago, ZWK said:

 9   65    Devontae Booker    DEN    25.5    (69)

I've been impressed with how Booker has looked since coming back from injury, and I think he has the best chance of anyone there to lead that backfield in 2018. I'd rather have him than a lot of the guys you have in the 30s and 40s.

Also curious about:

4 hours ago, ZWK said:

7    27    D'Onta Foreman    HOU    21.6    (31)

I see you have moved Foreman up. I think that's merited based on what he showed, but I'm not sure how concerned we should be with the Achilles tear. Was this ranking before or after the injury?

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Foreman: He would've been up on tier 6 before the injury; then back down to tier 7 with the injury. He's roughly where he was pre-season, a few spots higher because the guys around him have moved down. Achilles tear is a bigger concern than an ACL.

Booker: My impression has been that he's playing worse than Anderson or Charles. But I haven't been following Denver that closely; I might be wrong about that. It does look like he has the best DVOA on the team, which is a good sign.

Cook: He is roughly where I had him at the start of the season. His early season production was good but not spectacular, and then the ACL tear is obviously a negative, and those roughly cancel out. His per play production was better than what McKinnon & Murray have been doing, but only by a modest amount. And the fact that he got a huge share of the workload is a good sign, but my sense is that if he magically became healthy right now then his workload would not be as huge down the stretch, so I don't want to give him too much credit for dominating snaps over McKinnon & Murray for 3.5 games.

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7 hours ago, Zyphros said:

The disrespect to Howard continues.  I realize it's .5 ppr so it limits Howard a bit but he's been so impressive on that team for 2 years now and he gets the nod at #13?  Bump that boy to #6 and we got rankings.  

This is one that stood out for me also. It is kind of funny too as ZWK is a Bears fan. I may do the same thing in regards to Vikings players, as far as being too low on them.

I don't know about having Howard 6th overall, but I know I would take him over Ingram. It is tough but I think I would take him over Gordon too. JWB has influenced me somewhat in regards to Gordon, as a Chargers fan he sees Gordon a lot more than I do. Perhaps another example of being more closely tuned in to a team causes one to see a players flaws more clearly and be more critical of those players than someone with a more outside view.

I hesitate a bit in regards to Cook and McCaffrey who I think have amazing upside. I think Howard should be in the same tier as these two, but I am not sure I would draft him ahead of them. Freeman is a tough call as well, mostly because of the difference in Howard and Freeman as a receiver. 

Part of this for projecting forward is related to Tarik Cohen as well. If you see Cohen earning more playing time next season and as time goes on, and Howard remaining limited as a receiver, then that does take a lot of the high upside scoring away from Howard. Even now that seems to be the case as Cohen is being targeted twice as much as Howard is. The 50 targets Howard had last season doesn't seem to be in the cards anymore. Whats also concerning is that Howards yards per reception has dropped about 50% from last year. 

Even in standard scoring leagues those reception yards make a big difference and help insulate a RBs floor when their teams fall behind in the score. It makes the total yardage produced a bit more consistent for the RB being used frequently in the passing game, even without the additional points for receptions.

In my view Howard and Cook should move up to tier 3 which isn't a big difference, but I think its good to focus on the player order at the top of the rankings. After the top 20 or so things are going to be more speculative and opinions diverge quite a bit more.

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Great stuff ZWK!  

My only thought is McCoy seems low. Guessing this is due to his age. With RBs having a 2-3 year window typically I wonder about that. Also seems like certain RBs hold up better through the years. McCoy isn’t showing any signs of decline. I get the cliff risk but seems low for a guy who has been getting ranked as an RB1 regardless of matchup this year 

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On 11/23/2017 at 8:19 AM, Gandalf said:

Great stuff ZWK!  

My only thought is McCoy seems low. Guessing this is due to his age. With RBs having a 2-3 year window typically I wonder about that. Also seems like certain RBs hold up better through the years. McCoy isn’t showing any signs of decline. I get the cliff risk but seems low for a guy who has been getting ranked as an RB1 regardless of matchup this year 

McCoy is going to be 30 next July before the 2018 season.

Could he have another two good years left in him? Sure. But I think you have to start down grading RB when they hit 30 because that window for them is shortening at this point compared to say a 26-28 year old RB (where there is also historical evidence of some decline for RBs) who still has some seasons left before they are hitting 30.

I agree with your view as far as not looking too far ahead for any RB. I just think age 30 has a lot of evidence of a RB falling off and that is risk deserving of a downgrade.

Still happy to buy an older RB who has been as good as McCoy but I won't be willing to pay RB one prices for one, even if they perform as one in their age 30 season.

RB is a young mans game. Historically RB perform at their highest level in their first six seasons on average. There is a drop off after that. Of course there are exceptions to that, but you are betting against a lot of history hoping for that exception. That risk is worth the downgrade in my opinion.

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Post-Thanksgiving QB rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 11/17/17. Prev from 9/8/17.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Carson Wentz    PHI    24.9    (14)
1    2    Russell Wilson    SEA    29.0    (3)
1    3    Aaron Rodgers    GB    34.0    (2)
1    4    Andrew Luck    IND    28.2    (1)
1    5    Deshaun Watson    HOU    22.2    (17)
2    6    Marcus Mariota    TEN    24.0    (4)
2    7    Jameis Winston    TB    23.9    (6)
2    8    Dak Prescott    DAL    24.3    (8)
3    9    Cam Newton    CAR    28.5    (9)
3    10    Derek Carr    OAK    26.6    (5)
3    11    Jared Goff    RAM    23.1    (18)
3    12    Tom Brady    NE    40.3    (13)
3    13    Matt Ryan    ATL    32.5    (7)
3    14    Mitchell Trubisky    CHI    23.2    (10)
3    15    Patrick Mahomes    KC    22.2    (12)
3    16    Drew Brees    NO    38.8    (11)
3    17    Kirk Cousins    WAS    29.2    (15)
4    18    Matthew Stafford    DET    29.8    (20)
4    19    Jimmy Garoppolo    SF    26.0    (19)
4    20    Tyrod Taylor    BUF    28.3    (21)
5    21    Teddy Bridgewater    MIN    25.0    (27)
5    22    Andy Dalton    CIN    30.0    (16)
5    23    Ben Roethlisberger    PIT    35.7    (23)
5    24    Case Keenum    MIN    29.7    (59)
5    25    Philip Rivers    LAC    35.9    (24)
6    26    Alex Smith    KC    33.5    (32)
6    27    Ryan Tannehill    MIA    29.3    (25)
6    28    Sam Bradford    MIN    30.0    (26)
6    29    Jacoby Brissett    IND    24.9    (52)
6    30    A.J. McCarron    CIN    27.2    (43)
6    31    DeShone Kizer    CLE    21.9    (22)
7    32    Paxton Lynch    DEN    23.8    (34)
7    33    C.J. Beathard    SF    24.0    (36)
7    34    Davis Webb    NYG    22.8    (41)
7    35    Trevor Siemian    DEN    25.9    (30)
7    36    Blake Bortles    JAX    25.9    (31)
7    37    Josh McCown    NYJ    38.4    (49)
7    38    Blaine Gabbert        28.1    unr
7    39    Carson Palmer    ARI    37.9    (28)
7    40    Eli Manning    NYG    36.9    (29)
7    41    Colin Kaepernick        30.0    (33)
7    42    Chad Kelly    DEN    23.6    (48)
7    43    Geno Smith    NYG    27.1    (51)
7    44    Landry Jones    PIT    28.6    (47)
7    45    Brett Hundley    GB    24.4    (55)
8    46    Mike Glennon    CHI    27.9    (37)
8    47    Brian Hoyer    NE    32.1    (38)
8    48    Bryce Petty    NYJ    26.5    (39)
8    49    Tom Savage    HOU    27.6    (40)
8    50    Ryan Fitzpatrick    TB    35.0    (58)
8    51    Robert Griffin III        27.7    (42)
8    52    Cody Kessler    CLE    24.5    (44)
8    53    Joe Flacco    BAL    32.8    (45)
8    54    Brock Osweiler    DEN    27.0    (46)
8    55    Jay Cutler    MIA    34.5    (35)
8    56    Christian Hackenberg    NYJ    22.8    (53)
8    57    Matt Moore    MIA    33.3    (54)
8    58    Johnny Manziel        24.9    (56)
8    59    Chase Daniel    NO    31.1    (57)

Things have gotten weird at the top for QBs. At the start of the season I had 2 QBs in my top tier, now I have 5 thanks to those 2 declining and 2-3 others stepping up. Let's take a closer look at my top 11.

Starting with the vets: Wilson (2), Rodgers (3), Luck (4), Newton (11).

Russell Wilson is having another great year, now as a one-man offense, and his rushing production has bounced back. I continue to be somewhat concerned about a possible decline in rushing production over the coming years (being 1 year older is a bigger deal for QBs who get a significant chunk of their value from running), plus he'll probably account for fewer of the Seahawks touchdowns once they find a RB.

Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone (again) and is now 34; the combination of age and injuries is not a good sign (see: Romo, Tony). But he was playing great this season, seems to be recovering well, and might even be good to go for the fantasy playoffs; most likely he still has a few elite seasons left.

Andrew Luck lost the whole season to his shoulder injury and there are doubts about his future. I think it's more likely than not that he'll return to form, but he loses about 1/3 of his future value (for 2018 and beyond) because of the risk that he doesn't.

Cam Newton has bounced back to odd-numbered-year form; like Wilson, his rushing numbers are up again. But it is looking clearer that he's not that great a passer, and the fact that his career has been filled with ups and downs looks like a product of his physical playing style, so I continue to be fairly concerned about how he'll age (moreso than with Wilson).

Wentz, Watson, and Goff are the new hotness. The big question with them is to what extent they're products of the system, or defenses not adjusting yet, or good luck over small sample sizes. The short answer is "I don't know" - they're all held down in my overall player ratings based on the possibility, but they're all still up there fairly high because they might be legit.

Wentz seems the strongest as a passer this year - he grades out well in stats like PFF grade, DVOA, QBR - in addition to putting up big fantasy numbers (including a decent amount of rushing production). I was skeptical about Wentz (relative to other young QBs) before this season mainly because the production wasn't there; now the production is there so I am much less skeptical. He jumps all the way to #1, although he's still on the same tier as 7 other guys.

Watson has the best per game fantasy production in the league but also the smallest sample size and the flukiest-looking TD production. The stats are divided on him - great QBR and very good DVOA but mediocre PFF grade. Memories of RG3's rookie year (which put him at #2 in my rankings) have me a bit worried, although I don't want to overreact to one comparison.

The Rams offense is one of the most befuddling transformations that I've seen. How do you go from 14 ppg to 30 ppg while only adding Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Andrew Whitworth, and John Sullivan to your offense? How do Jared Goff, Case Keenum, and Robert Woods go from what we saw in 2016 (in LA & BUF) to what they're doing in 2017 (in LA & MIN)?

Then there's last year's hotness: Mariota, Winston, Prescott, and Carr. Not looking as hot as they did a year ago. (That is a reminder not to overreact to the success of Wentz, Watson, and Goff.) Mariota & Winston are continuing to not take that next step up, and instead seem to be declining a bit. Prescott & Carr are looking somewhat exposed as system QBs, dependent on the talent around them. Although maybe we should see them more as reminders that pretty much every QB's production depends on the system and talent around him. All 4 have still been above average QBs this year, on the whole (though they may be slightly below average by some stats, and some of them have had some rough games). So they haven't dropped that far.

Looking deeper: The Garoppolo trade, plus Brady's MVP-level performance, are good signs for Brady. The Saints' defense and improved running game are bad news for Brees. Trubisky & Mahomes are basically holding steady, but have been leapfrogged by a few other guys who are doing better than steady. Tier 4 onward does not have that much fantasy value (expected future VBD); I think I have Garoppolo and Keenum higher than most because of upside. Minnesota is suddenly looking like a great place for a QB, and if Keenum keeps it up for a few more games he might end up with the job and a promising outlook. A.J. McCarron rides his bizarre botched trade into tier 6.

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Good stuff Z, thanks for the write-up at the end too, it's always good to read your thoughts.

I think I'd actually take Bortles at that price. But I don't think he actually falls that far, name recognition and memories of him bring productive in FF will probably get him drafted higher by about ten spots. You're probably right as to where he should go. 

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25 minutes ago, Tool said:

I’d bump some of the older guys: prob would move Stafford Ryan and Cousins to 6,7, and 8

There's value there sure, but do you know any Mariota, Winston or Dak owners who would trade those guys straight for Stafford, Ryan or cousins? In the off season?  If I saw that swap today that would tell me (1) the owner trading away the young guy is going all in for 17 and (2) he probably isn't coming back next year. 

But the inverse, the majority of Ryan/Stafford/cousins owners would probably trade their guy for the others.

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  • ZWK changed the title to ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)

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