Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)


Recommended Posts

On 3/28/2018 at 0:23 AM, thriftyrocker said:

Lamar Miller needs to transition to being a 3rd down RB if he's going to come close to that ranking. Good chance he is cut in June and tries to latch onto a team as a 3rd down RB. Sell him for Duke or Cohen if you can. He is good enough in that role to sustain his career, but it will likely make his fantasy upside less than the younger players, unless he ends up somewhere great.

2

Miller thrived while Watson was starting. In my PPR league, he effective enough (17 fpg avg) to be in the top 15 RBs over those 6 weeks. To the surprise of no one, he was less effective (12 fpg avg) when Watson went down.  People are way too quick to bury Miller. He's nothing special and may be overpaid but he fits that offense with Watson. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stafford seems pretty low on that list for a guy who was the 6th highest scoring QB in 2017 and 7th in 2016. He just turned 30 and still has solid weapons in Jones and Tate. I'd move him into tier 3, ahead of Brady due to his age.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, ZWK said:

My QB rankings are technically now also PPR, which is a tiny boost for QBs with good hands like Nick Foles.

Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 12/2/17.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Russell Wilson    SEA    29.8    (2)
1    2    Carson Wentz    PHI    25.7    (1)
1    3    Aaron Rodgers    GB    34.7    (3)
1    4    Andrew Luck    IND    29.0    (4)
1    5    Deshaun Watson    HOU    23.0    (5)
2    6    Jimmy Garoppolo    SF    26.8    (19)
2    7    Marcus Mariota    TEN    24.8    (6)
2    8    Jameis Winston    TB    24.7    (7)
3    9    Cam Newton    CAR    29.3    (9)
3    10    Jared Goff    RAM    23.9    (11)
3    11    Dak Prescott    DAL    25.1    (8)
3    12    Derek Carr    OAK    27.4    (10)
3    13    Tom Brady    NE    41.1    (12)
3    14    Matt Ryan    ATL    33.3    (13)
3    15    Kirk Cousins    MIN    30.0    (17)
3    16    Patrick Mahomes    KC    23.0    (15)
3    17    Mitchell Trubisky    CHI    24.0    (14)
3    18    Drew Brees    NO    39.6    (16)
3    19    Matthew Stafford    DET    30.6    (18)
4    20    Tyrod Taylor    CLE    29.1    (20)
4    21    Ben Roethlisberger    PIT    36.5    (23)
4    22    Case Keenum    DEN    30.5    (24)
4    23    Philip Rivers    LAC    36.7    (25)
 

I really believe you are projecting too high on Mahomes' and Trubisky's potential.  They still have to prove themselves in order to be justified to be ranked higher than Brees, Stafford, Roethlisberger, and Rivers. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, saintfool said:

Miller thrived while Watson was starting. In my PPR league, he effective enough (17 fpg avg) to be in the top 15 RBs over those 6 weeks. To the surprise of no one, he was less effective (12 fpg avg) when Watson went down.  People are way too quick to bury Miller. He's nothing special and may be overpaid but he fits that offense with Watson. 

Miller may need to worry more about who is starting at RB than who is starting at QB. He was essentially benched for a very Meh Alfred Blue the last month of the season, which strangely keeps getting overlooked. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

I really believe you are projecting too high on Mahomes' and Trubisky's potential.  They still have to prove themselves in order to be justified to be ranked higher than Brees, Stafford, Roethlisberger, and Rivers. 

ZWK has said before that he values upside most in QBs in 1 QB leagues, since only elite QBs really differentiate themselves. 

I mostly agree. I took Wentz last year in my start up over a slow and steady low QB1 (Rivers) and I think rolling the dice on someone like Mahomes is a similar gamble. Unlike other positions if it doesn't pay off it usually isn't a big deal as you can find low QB1 production easily. 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, -OZ- said:

Won't argue with the straight list, but why is Goff in tier 3 instead of 2 with Jimmy, MM and Winston? 

That's the one that stood out to me as well. I would take him first of those four personally. 

Best seasons so far

Goff 3809/28/7, 51/1 rushing

Winston 2090/28/18, 168/1 rushing

Mariotta 3426/26/9, 357/2 rushing 

Garoppolo 1560/7/5, 11/1 rushing

Goff compares favorably with all of them, including being a former 1.1 pick, and he did his damage without any real elite receivers or tight ends so he could see an uptick if he got one, which is important because the rams openly pursued Watkins (who is arguably elite but didn't get the opportunity to play like it last year) and now obj this off season.  Add in Gurley's receiving ability and you've got a lot of upside 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On ‎3‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 11:23 PM, thriftyrocker said:

Lamar Miller needs to transition to being a 3rd down RB if he's going to come close to that ranking. Good chance he is cut in June and tries to latch onto a team as a 3rd down RB. Sell him for Duke or Cohen if you can. He is good enough in that role to sustain his career, but it will likely make his fantasy upside less than the younger players, unless he ends up somewhere great.

Very little chance of that, enough to where I don't feel like it will come back to bite me to say basically a zero chance. Alfred Blue is gone, Tyler Ervin is a waste of space, the Texans "think" Foreman will be ready by training camp but it is not a certainty, but they have said he won't be able to do much at all in offseason activities. BOB just said a few days ago: 

"It’ll be a battle," O'Brien said. "At that position, we’ve always kind of had a little bit of a committee. So, Lamar will play, D’Onta will play, just like we did last year when they were both in.”

IMO, Texans will likely add a rookie in the 3rd or 4th round, to replace Blue & Ervin and for Foreman insurance after tearing his Achilles. No guarantee Foreman comes back to be anything he used to be after that injury.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

First of all, that's not true. 9+ TDs is a lock for no one, especially someone expected to get 130 targets or less.

Second, the dude is always hurt. So we can either say this minor injury didn't hold him back this year or we can say there will be some other injury holding him back next year. The result is the same for rankings purposes. 

I agree that the injuries are concerning, but I tend to ignore injuries for the most part when evaluating players.  Is alshon injury prone?  Maybe.  But the man just played 19 games with a torn rotator cuff.  He’s tough, too.  And should be healthy for week 1.  

130 targets is reasonable.  I’d expect 20 of them to come in the red zone, that’s what they pay him for.  Because the eagles are so good at spreading the ball around, most of those will be one on one coverage.  That should translate to 9+ tds.    Instead of calling it a lock, I should say I think it’s a safe bet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

That's the one that stood out to me as well. I would take him first of those four personally. 

Best seasons so far

Goff 3809/28/7, 51/1 rushing

Winston 2090/28/18, 168/1 rushing

Mariotta 3426/26/9, 357/2 rushing 

Garoppolo 1560/7/5, 11/1 rushing

Goff compares favorably with all of them, including being a former 1.1 pick, and he did his damage without any real elite receivers or tight ends so he could see an uptick if he got one, which is important because the rams openly pursued Watkins (who is arguably elite but didn't get the opportunity to play like it last year) and now obj this off season.  Add in Gurley's receiving ability and you've got a lot of upside 

Don't forget Everett, who has a lot now potential than he showed last year. Not to say he'll pan out but everything seems to show that Snead is actively working to get offensive weapons for Goff. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Miller may need to worry more about who is starting at RB than who is starting at QB. He was essentially benched for a very Meh Alfred Blue the last month of the season, which strangely keeps getting overlooked. 

It's not that complicated: He played poorly without Watson. No one would expect Alfred Blue to be as effective as Miller with Deshaun around. Everyone - including Hopkins - suffered with Watson gone. Miller might not be anything special (and is certainly overpaid now) but he wasn't the problem. I'm open to the discussion of Foreman vs Miller, I guess, but I don't see the point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, saintfool said:

It's not that complicated: He played poorly without Watson. No one would expect Alfred Blue to be as effective as Miller with Deshaun around. Everyone - including Hopkins - suffered with Watson gone. Miller might not be anything special (and is certainly overpaid now) but he wasn't the problem. I'm open to the discussion of Foreman vs Miller, I guess, but I don't see the point.

So what are you saying here, that Miller fit better with Watson and Blue fit better with Savage?  Watson getting hurt is an excuse for people to perform less, not an excuse for them to get benched.  Hopkins didn't become the Texans' #2 WR because Watson went down.

Regardless, I'm not really seeing where you're getting this idea that Miller was some great runner with Watson in there.  He ran for more than 4.0ypc only once in Watson's 7 games, which is terrible.  Actually, his YPC was lower when Watson played.  He caught more passes which was nice for fantasy PPR scoring, but I'm not sure why Miller's 3.5ypc in the 7 games that Watson played is going to make Houston excited about getting him more involved.

With Foreman's injury, he has a lack of competition going for him, I will give him that.  He has a chance to carve out a short term fantasy role with volume, maybe (again, even the lowsy Alfred Blue was too much competition for him down the stretch last year).  But as a football player last year he stunk, with or without Watson, and if he performs like he did last year (again, even with Watson in there) they will find someone else to give that volume to.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

So what are you saying here, that Miller fit better with Watson and Blue fit better with Savage?  Watson getting hurt is an excuse for people to perform less, not an excuse for them to get benched.  Hopkins didn't become the Texans' #2 WR because Watson went down.

Regardless, I'm not really seeing where you're getting this idea that Miller was some great runner with Watson in there.  He ran for more than 4.0ypc only once in Watson's 7 games, which is terrible.  Actually, his YPC was lower when Watson played.  He caught more passes which was nice for fantasy PPR scoring, but I'm not sure why Miller's 3.5ypc in the 7 games that Watson played is going to make Houston excited about getting him more involved.

With Foreman's injury, he has a lack of competition going for him, I will give him that.  He has a chance to carve out a short term fantasy role with volume, maybe (again, even the lowsy Alfred Blue was too much competition for him down the stretch last year).  But as a football player last year he stunk, with or without Watson, and if he performs like he did last year (again, even with Watson in there) they will find someone else to give that volume to.

To me the whole Miller/Foreman debate is kind of pointless, the ultimate answer is very likely neither guy. Miller is overpaid and average and foreman has to overcome that Achilles injury which is no small feat

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Goff - I think that his production last year outpaced his skills. He did not rate in the top 12 in QBR or PFF grade, which look more at what the QB does and not just at the end result of the play. Over the long run, I think that skills (and stats like those) are a better predictor than production.

Stafford, Roethlisberger, and Rivers - when I last ran the numbers in December, they each had under 35 VBD, total, over the past 3 years. For Roethlisberger & Rivers they'd need to do more, soon, in order to have much fantasy value. Stafford is younger, but he now has 6 straight years of only modest value (since his big 2011 season). I'd rather bet on a rookie's upside - Wentz already has more than 35 career VBD.

Lamar Miller - @FreeBaGeL beat me to this one. During the last 3 weeks of 2017 he was the lesser half of a RB committee, behind Alfred Blue(!). And if you're saying "well, Alfred Blue is no longer on the roster so Miller doesn't have to compete with him anymore" that doesn't exactly inspire optimism in Miller. This looks a lot like a CJ Anderson situation, where he looks like the best RB on the roster but doesn't have the coaches' confidence, but I think Anderson has been more effective as a runner (though Miller offers more in the passing game).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ugh. Let's go back to what I posted regarding Miller (link) and notice the decidedly measured praise. Miller might have been statistically inefficient but he was productive. In my PPR league, for example, he averaged a top 15 RB numbers while Watson was playing. Could he have done better? Sure, but IIRC he outperformed his ADP during that stretch. Hopkins, despite the superior talent, still wasn't as efficient with Watson gone even if he was still every bit as productive. In the end, for me, it's all about production. If he can repeat those numbers with Watson again then most Miller owners will be happy. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

To me the whole Miller/Foreman debate is kind of pointless, the ultimate answer is very likely neither guy. Miller is overpaid and average and foreman has to overcome that Achilles injury which is no small feat

I'd agree. Situation and context are key here. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Goff compares favorably with all of them, including being a former 1.1 pick, and he did his damage without any real elite receivers or tight ends so he could see an uptick if he got one, which is important because the rams openly pursued Watkins (who is arguably elite but didn't get the opportunity to play like it last year) and now obj this off season.  Add in Gurley's receiving ability and you've got a lot of upside 

This is my takeaway on Goff as well.  I would say I would echo a bit of surprise at where Garropolo is in the rankings, and I probably wouldn't have Goff ranked as low, but in fairness that's analyzing four slots in the rankings, not really that much difference.

On Jimmy G, I'll need more than five games to convince me, I guess.  I feel like the wow factor of his 5-game sample is getting too much weight compared with some of the other results.  His first game against the Bears was solid but not really spectacular.  The last game against the Rams isn't much of a sample with the Rams not trying.  That leaves three games of wow, to me.

I've gone back-and-forth on Goff a lot, given the questions as to how much he is functioning as an automaton of Sean McVay.  I've kind of settled on Goff possibly being a better fantasy QB than real-life QB.  In the current era of get-the-ball-out-quickly offenses, I think the fantasy potential is there even for someone who might be leaning more toward the game-manager side of things, if that makes sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/24/2018 at 2:09 PM, ZWK said:

4    15    Adam Thielen    MIN    28.0    (14)
4    16    Sammy Watkins    KC    25.2    (13)
4    17    Stefon Diggs    MIN    24.8    (18)
5    18    Corey Davis    TEN    23.6    (15)
5    19    JuJu Smith-Schuster    PIT    21.8    (22)
 

 

Watkins is a frustrating player and two NFL teams have already moved on from him. It may seem harsh, but to me he's a dynasty WR3-WR4. He's a depth guy who can get hot for a season and maybe elevate your team, but you don't want to count on him for weekly numbers.

 

I have Watkins in one league and Thielen in a couple leagues. I'd much rather have JuJu. Not only is he possibly the better overall player, but he has a big youth advantage. WR19 is a pretty appealing price in a startup for a guy who showed a lot of potential in his rookie season. I'm probably a little more bullish on JuJu than most though. I don't think he's necessarily worth less than people like Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson (another player I have in a lot of places).

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really like the QB rankings, ZWK. Especially the aggressive jimmy g placement. 

I would be equally aggressive with cousins. Can’t ignore the way so many NFL teams went after him, even when there were plenty of decent options available (between FA and the draft).  And he’s put up near elite passing numbers with 4-5 rushing TDs per year.  At least bump him over Brady and Ryan.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, oldmanhawkins said:

I really like the QB rankings, ZWK. Especially the aggressive jimmy g placement. 

I would be equally aggressive with cousins. Can’t ignore the way so many NFL teams went after him, even when there were plenty of decent options available (between FA and the draft).  And he’s put up near elite passing numbers with 4-5 rushing TDs per year.  At least bump him over Brady and Ryan.  

It will be interesting to see if his redzone struggles are an issue with him or with the offense he was running.

Pretty terrible redzone TD conversion rate is what keeps him as a middling fantasy option.  The yards are there if he can add the TDs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

I really believe you are projecting too high on Mahomes' and Trubisky's potential.  They still have to prove themselves in order to be justified to be ranked higher than Brees, Stafford, Roethlisberger, and Rivers. 

I was thinking he was too low.  I'd have him #8 behind Mariota.  Stafford has a lot of QB1 seasons, but not all that much VBD.  The others you named are old enough that you don't need a very high chance that Mahomes is great to justify him above those guys.

The trickier ones are Jameis, Cam, Goff, Dak and Cousins.  I wouldn't argue if you slot him behind those guys (like #13), but I think he's just about the perfect QB prospect and that his ceiling is ARod-esque, except that he's going to start at 22 years old instead of waiting until 24.  I'm targeting him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:
22 minutes ago, oldmanhawkins said:

I really like the QB rankings, ZWK. Especially the aggressive jimmy g placement. 

I would be equally aggressive with cousins. Can’t ignore the way so many NFL teams went after him, even when there were plenty of decent options available (between FA and the draft).  And he’s put up near elite passing numbers with 4-5 rushing TDs per year.  At least bump him over Brady and Ryan.  

It will be interesting to see if his redzone struggles are an issue with him or with the offense he was running.

Pretty terrible redzone TD conversion rate is what keeps him as a middling fantasy option.  The yards are there if he can add the TDs.

I'd attribute it to the weapons he had in 2016 and 2017.  He was actually good in 2015.  Reed has really been the only plus option he's had in the red zone.  DJax is worthless there, and it has never been a strength of Garcon's.  Then last year, Pryor was awful in all aspects, and Doctson wasn't much better.  Not to mention, they have nothing in the run game.  

Looking forward, Diggs/Thielen/Rudolph plus Cook...yeah I'd expect him to improve there.  But he probably won't be getting the 4-5 rushing TDs anymore. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, oldmanhawkins said:

I would be equally aggressive with cousins. Can’t ignore the way so many NFL teams went after him, even when there were plenty of decent options available (between FA and the draft).  And he’s put up near elite passing numbers with 4-5 rushing TDs per year.  At least bump him over Brady and Ryan.  

I complain about Cousins' low ranking every time, but I think  Z will use those rushing TDs as a negative (sustainable?). He's tier 2 for me and given his production, he has no business being behind Ryan, Carr, Goff. I'm guessing next round at least 3 rookie QB will be put ahead of him too.

Interesting Mitch keeps falling (10->10->14->17) despite added weapons and a much better coach. I never believed in him but he's becoming a hold.

I can't wait to buy Cam for a 2nd this year. I will buy him everywhere. And see the other person take Josh Rosen or some garbage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

It will be interesting to see if his redzone struggles are an issue with him or with the offense he was running.

Pretty terrible redzone TD conversion rate is what keeps him as a middling fantasy option.  The yards are there if he can add the TDs.

Red zone is something DeFlippo specialized in and still puts a lot of focus on. This was a point of emphasis for Zimmer and the Vikings last season, and they did improve their red zone offense scoring more TD than FG last season. The Eagles had extremely high conversion rate last season.

So I think if this doesn't improve with Cousins it would be on him, not the coaches.

When you think about the QB who have been able to find success with the Vikings and their WR recently, that is an example of the team and situation being good for QBs as both of them had career type seasons playing for the Vikings. Cousins may show similar improvement as they have. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, thriftyrocker said:

I complain about Cousins' low ranking every time, but I think  Z will use those rushing TDs as a negative (sustainable?). He's tier 2 for me and given his production, he has no business being behind Ryan, Carr, Goff. I'm guessing next round at least 3 rookie QB will be put ahead of him too.

Interesting Mitch keeps falling (10->10->14->17) despite added weapons and a much better coach. I never believed in him but he's becoming a hold.

I can't wait to buy Cam for a 2nd this year. I will buy him everywhere. And see the other person take Josh Rosen or some garbage.

I value Trubisky almost as much as I did last offseason (compared to WRs or whatever), it's just that other QBs have risen up the rankings and leapfrogged him. Good seasons from Wentz, Watson, Garoppolo, and Goff have shot them up the rankings, and he has also been edged out by good news from Brady (MVP season, and they shipped away Garoppolo), Mahomes (won the starting job over Alex Smith, and hype from guys like Dinsy), and Cousins (huge contract and nice landing spot in Minnesota).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The top 3-5 rookie QBs are likely to slot somewhere into tier 3. At this point, I think I'd at least put Mayfield, Darnold, Jackson, and Rosen into that tier, starting with Mayfield around QB11. More on my take on the rookie QBs here (plus some stats here and here and here).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, rschroeder1 said:

I've gone back-and-forth on Goff a lot, given the questions as to how much he is functioning as an automaton of Sean McVay.  I've kind of settled on Goff possibly being a better fantasy QB than real-life QB.  In the current era of get-the-ball-out-quickly offenses, I think the fantasy potential is there even for someone who might be leaning more toward the game-manager side of things, if that makes sense.

Goff is getting real time coaching on what to look for pre snap and how to adjust, in a real game situation against defenses that are actually trying to respond to it.  Then he gets to watch film with McVay and the receivers afterwards and discuss everything he was supposed to see. It's a really powerful way to teach.  I expect that this year we'll hear more about Goff making his own adjustments and calling his own audibles, and at some point it will all be Goff.

For now, though, we know he can execute on the throws, he's got good vision and can follow the play, he only threw 7 interceptions on the season which is pretty awesome, he doesn't have a great deep ball but he hits the short and intermediate stuff well, and he has had better passing numbers than the guy throwing to Mike Evans and desean Jackson without having a real stud receiver or tight end of his own, which suggests he not only has the upside of youth, but the upside of possibly adding a stud at some point (like obj).

I feel similarly about mariotta, except mariotta doesn't seem to be as good a passer.  Winston got loaded up with weapons and had a down year. Jimmy g looks like a winner but we have so little sample size of what he will be as a fantasy asset  I really don't get it. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/29/2018 at 10:24 PM, Biabreakable said:

Red zone is something DeFlippo specialized in and still puts a lot of focus on. This was a point of emphasis for Zimmer and the Vikings last season, and they did improve their red zone offense scoring more TD than FG last season. The Eagles had extremely high conversion rate last season.

So I think if this doesn't improve with Cousins it would be on him, not the coaches.

When you think about the QB who have been able to find success with the Vikings and their WR recently, that is an example of the team and situation being good for QBs as both of them had career type seasons playing for the Vikings. Cousins may show similar improvement as they have. 

Plus Cousins will have a better running game in Vikings than Redskins.  Dalvin Cook has a nose for endzone throughout his career in FSU (8, 19, and 20 TDs in each college season).  Devonta Freeman was splitting rushing duty with Cook when he was freshman year.  So I have a full confident in his ability to finish in the redzone. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

Plus Cousins will have a better running game in Vikings than Redskins.  Dalvin Cook has a nose for endzone throughout his career in FSU (8, 19, and 20 TDs in each college season).  Devonta Freeman was splitting rushing duty with Cook when he was freshman year.  So I have a full confident in his ability to finish in the redzone. 

Agreed.

However Latavius Murray wasn't fully healthy at the beginning of the season when Cook was playing. It is still possible that Murray ends up getting a lot of goal line looks. Maybe not but he is pretty good at that. He is tall can fall over the line and get 2 yards.

Cooks first NFL TD was kind of iffy call, it was close but they gave it to him. There are a couple plays where he had a chance I think to score long TD, but he slipped on the turf and lost his feet. He was still getting used to the speed of NFL defenders. I think he is going to be much improved this season.

MIke Clay did some projections recently where he has Cook scoring 7 rushing TD and 2 receiving TD. He has Murray scoring 3 on the ground and one on a reception. He has Cousins throwing 27 TD. I could easily see that being 24 TD and and 3 more rushing TD for the RBs.

It won't surprise me though if Murray pilfers some of those TD from Cook. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/29/2018 at 10:41 PM, ZWK said:

I value Trubisky almost as much as I did last offseason (compared to WRs or whatever), it's just that other QBs have risen up the rankings and leapfrogged him. Good seasons from Wentz, Watson, Garoppolo, and Goff have shot them up the rankings, and he has also been edged out by good news from Brady (MVP season, and they shipped away Garoppolo), Mahomes (won the starting job over Alex Smith, and hype from guys like Dinsy), and Cousins (huge contract and nice landing spot in Minnesota).

How can Mahomes be ranked above Trubisky? He barely played last year and has proven nothing.  He is starting? Great. Trubisky won the starting job last year and his team has radically improved.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mahomes and Trubisky are very close, in my book. Trubisky was drafted earlier, which counts in his favor. Mahomes has better surrounding talent (T Hill, Watkins, Kelce) and a more proven coaching staff, and beating out Alex Smith is more impressive than beating out Mike Glennon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, ZWK said:

Mahomes and Trubisky are very close, in my book. Trubisky was drafted earlier, which counts in his favor. Mahomes has better surrounding talent (T Hill, Watkins, Kelce) and a more proven coaching staff, and beating out Alex Smith is more impressive than beating out Mike Glennon.

 

is that really the case though? seems like a business decision more than anything to me. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, az_prof said:

How can Mahomes be ranked above Trubisky? He barely played last year and has proven nothing.  He is starting? Great. Trubisky won the starting job last year and his team has radically improved.  

They're in the same tier. They're one spot apart. In the words of David Sklansky, "The point is that the decision is close. If you don't like my numbers, choose ones you do like."

FWIW, I would take Mahomes over Trubisky in a startup, and I suspect I'm not alone - FantasyPros' composite dynasty rankings have them at #16 and #21 respectively (although I'd personally slot Trubisky over a couple of names he's going behind in those rankings, such as Brees and Roethlisberger).

Ultimately, in 1-QB leagues, anyone without a top-6 QB is losing points each week on average to the field, week in and week out, year in and year out. So personally, I bucket dynasty QBs into just three groups: (a) reliable top-6 QBs; (b) those with a fair or better chance of becoming top-6 QBs; (c) everyone else. Mahomes and Trubisky are both solidly in bucket (b), and beyond that it's somewhat a matter of personal preference IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

They're in the same tier. They're one spot apart. In the words of David Sklansky, "The point is that the decision is close. If you don't like my numbers, choose ones you do like."

FWIW, I would take Mahomes over Trubisky in a startup, and I suspect I'm not alone - FantasyPros' composite dynasty rankings have them at #16 and #21 respectively (although I'd personally slot Trubisky over a couple of names he's going behind in those rankings, such as Brees and Roethlisberger).

Ultimately, in 1-QB leagues, anyone without a top-6 QB is losing points each week on average to the field, week in and week out, year in and year out. So personally, I bucket dynasty QBs into just three groups: (a) reliable top-6 QBs; (b) those with a fair or better chance of becoming top-6 QBs; (c) everyone else. Mahomes and Trubisky are both solidly in bucket (b), and beyond that it's somewhat a matter of personal preference IMO.

Well, I'd argue that you could have two guys at the back end (say QB12 and QB13) and play the matchups and come out ahead of some guys with top 6 QBs. That being said, I have not been good at playing the matchups when I've tried this. :bag:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's some data on the slowest wide receivers in the NFL.

Next Gen Stats tracks player speeds - they have data on the 20 fastest speeds reached by ballcarriers each week for the 2016 and 2017 seasons. This has some limitations: they're only looking at the guy with the ball (not WRs running routes, etc.), most ballcarriers don't have an opportunity to get near their top speed on most plays, they are only reporting each week's top 20 rather than a more comprehensive data set, and there are some other issues that I might go into if I do more with the data. But still, I think the data are tracking something meaningful - they do have Tyreek Hill with the fastest speed on record.

Here is a list of every WR with 80+ touches who never made the top 20 fastest ballcarriers in any week of the 2016 or 2017 regular seasons.

touches  player
149    Davante Adams
149    Randall Cobb
147    Michael Crabtree
135    Danny Amendola
120    Dez Bryant
119    Pierre Garcon
117    Cole Beasley
111    Kelvin Benjamin
109    Alshon Jeffery
106    Jermaine Kearse
83    Dontrelle Inman
82    Willie Snead

Seems like a cause for concern with all of these guys, even if raw speed isn't at the core of their game.

Edited by ZWK
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, ZWK said:

Here's some data on the slowest wide receivers in the NFL.

Next Gen Stats tracks player speeds - they have data on the 20 fastest speeds reached by ballcarriers each week for the 2016 and 2017 seasons. This has some limitations: they're only looking at the guy with the ball (not WRs running routes, etc.), most ballcarriers don't have an opportunity to get near their top speed on most plays, they are only reporting each week's top 20 rather than a more comprehensive data set, and there are some other issues that I might go into if I do more with the data. But still, I think the data are tracking something meaningful - they do have Tyreek Hill with the fastest speed on record.

Here is a list of every WR with 80+ touches who never made the top 20 fastest ballcarriers in any week of the 2016 or 2017 regular seasons.

touches  player
149    Davante Adams
149    Randall Cobb
147    Michael Crabtree
135    Danny Amendola
120    Dez Bryant
119    Pierre Garcon
117    Cole Beasley
111    Kelvin Benjamin
109    Alshon Jeffery
106    Jermaine Kearse
83    Dontrelle Inman
82    Willie Snead

Seems like a cause for concern with all of these guys, even if raw speed isn't at the core of their game.

Of those guys, I’d say that Adams and Garçon worry me the least. Adams may not be fast but Rodgers was throwing him deep a lot in 2016 and it was working out, speed or not. Now if you want to be worried about him getting open with him having #1 coverage and no Jordy, that is a worry I can get behind.

Garçon is a possession guy at this point and felt like he has been for a few years. Goodwin is the speed guy there anyway. I honestly think the bigger problem is that he is being thought of as the 1 and I think that’s Goodwin.

Alshon worries me most. Aghelor is more the speed guy there but at the same time, I feel like every time I watch Alshon, he’s trying to catch a 50/50 ball. His game seems to be predicated on height and physicality. That won’t age out well and lacking a top gear speed doesn’t bode well either

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, ZWK said:

Here's some data on the slowest wide receivers in the NFL.

Next Gen Stats tracks player speeds - they have data on the 20 fastest speeds reached by ballcarriers each week for the 2016 and 2017 seasons. This has some limitations: they're only looking at the guy with the ball (not WRs running routes, etc.), most ballcarriers don't have an opportunity to get near their top speed on most plays, they are only reporting each week's top 20 rather than a more comprehensive data set, and there are some other issues that I might go into if I do more with the data. But still, I think the data are tracking something meaningful - they do have Tyreek Hill with the fastest speed on record.

Here is a list of every WR with 80+ touches who never made the top 20 fastest ballcarriers in any week of the 2016 or 2017 regular seasons.

touches  player
149    Davante Adams
149    Randall Cobb
147    Michael Crabtree
135    Danny Amendola
120    Dez Bryant
119    Pierre Garcon
117    Cole Beasley
111    Kelvin Benjamin
109    Alshon Jeffery
106    Jermaine Kearse
83    Dontrelle Inman
82    Willie Snead

Seems like a cause for concern with all of these guys, even if raw speed isn't at the core of their game.

It's only a concern to me if they rely on speed to win.  I hate page-by-page reports like that, do you have the info compiled somewhere?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

It's only a concern to me if they rely on speed to win.  I hate page-by-page reports like that, do you have the info compiled somewhere?

Exactly. There are some players on the list who have been pretty successful, despite this so called limitation. If anything, that tells me they could age better than some of their peers who do rely on speed to win.

It is also important to note that we are probably splitting hairs here. I didn't look at every page of stats, but I scanned a few and saw that speed cut off at 19.27 mph for a couple. Well, suppose some of the players above topped out at 19.26 mph and thus didn't make any charts. Does that really matter?

I also noticed that most of the plays cited were long TD plays. There is definitely some luck in play on those. We also know there are players who are strong fantasy players for whom scoring long TDs is not their game.

I don't necessarily like all the players @ZWK listed, but I put zero credence in this stat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's true that most of the plays that make the top list are ones where the ballcarrier gets into the open field and is able to run mostly straight ahead for 20+ yards and get up to speed.

But top speed on these plays is correlated with having "good speed" in other ways. It's not F-Zero where the car with the fastest top speed has the slowest acceleration - generally players with fast top speeds also have fast acceleration. Players may not come close to their max speed on most plays, but it's relevant in the same way that the broad jump is: a good broad jump is a sign of good explosiveness, which matters on lots of plays even though no one ever does a standing long jump on the field.

Players only have a chance to get close to their top speed occasionally, but if a receiver got the ball 120 times then that's probably enough for him to have a few open field opportunities. And if he was unable to shake free to create an open field opportunity on any of those 120 touches then that is also a bad sign.

So not making these charts does seem like a bad sign about a player's speed. If a player just barely made the list once, with a 19.27mph as the 20th fastest speed of the week, then that is also a somewhat bad sign. But that mostly feels like a reason to also be worried about the WR who never did better than 20th, rather than a reason to not be worried about the guy who never made the top 20. Out of the 77 WRs with 80+ touches, these 12 never made the top 20 list and there are another 11 WRs only made the top 20 once and never topped 19.5mph. So maybe we should be flag those 11 guys too (Julian Edelman, Terrance Williams, Keenan Allen, Kenny Britt, Eli Rogers, Rishard Matthews, Tyler Boyd, Jamison Crowder, Jeremy Kerley, Deonte Thompson, Seth Roberts).

It's true that speed is only one component of an overall evaluation. I'm more concerned about guys like Alshon Jeffery and Dez Bryant than guys like Beasley, Amendola, and Edelman. Beasley is a slot guy whose job is to be shifty in tight spaces, so speed is less relevant for him. Whereas Jeffery used to be more of a prototypical WR1 - in 2013-15 he put up big numbers and got used all over the field as a deep threat, as a jump ball receiver, and as a weapon who the Bears would try to feed the ball to on plays like jet sweeps. But over the past 2 years his total production is down and he hasn't had a single rushing attempt. There's a question (which we discussed a few weeks ago) of whether he just had a couple down years because of bad Bears QBs / adjusting to a new system and QB in Philly / playing through things like his shoulder injury, or if he's lost a step and is now mostly just a jump ball / contested catch receiver. The fact that he didn't make the top speeds lists points to him losing a step, and makes me inclined to agree with folks like @FF Ninja & @voiceofunreason that I had him ranked too high.

Next Gen Stats also has data on receivers' average separation, "The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion." This is a mixed signal - getting targets with low separation is a sign that your QB trusts you enough to throw it up to you when you're covered and let you make a play on the ball - but it seems relevant to note that Jeffery also has the second lowest average separation over 2016-17 (min 80 targets). That also fits the story of Jeffery losing a step and having trouble getting separation.

Here is everyone with less than 2.3 yards of average separation (2016-17 combined), min 80 targets:

sep   player
1.9    Kelvin Benjamin
2.0    Alshon Jeffery
2.1    Mike Evans
2.1    Marvin Jones
2.1    Dez Bryant
2.2    DeAndre Hopkins
2.2    Demaryius Thomas
2.3    Michael Crabtree

Four of the names overlap with the 11 players in the "never in the top 20 max speed" list: Benjamin, Jeffery, Bryant, and Crabtree.

Dez Bryant has a similar story to Jeffery's - huge production as a prototypical WR1 in 2012-14, becoming more of a contested catch artist of late, questions about how much of that is about adjusting to a new QB versus losing a step. The fact that he joins Jeffery in both the low separation and the low top speed list seems like a bad sign.

Crabtree is more of a possession receiver, and had a good season in 2016 despite his low top speed & separation that year. So this is less of a cause of concern for him, but I think it still matters some to see the combination of poor production in 2017, the Raiders deciding to move on and cut him, and low separation and low top speed in 2016-17. Kelvin Benjamin has a similar combination of low separation and low top speed, while his production wasn't great and his team decided to part ways, though again it's less concerning than Bryant or Jeffery given that he has a reputation as a big slow guy who wins with size.

Allen Robinson fell a bit short of the cutoff for number of touches, but it also seems worth noting that he also never reached the top speed list and would've been 3rd on the low separation list. Smaller sample size with him, and it was the Bortles-led 2016 Jaguars, but this makes me a little less optimistic about his chances of returning to his 2015 form in Chicago.

Edited by ZWK
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ZWK said:

Next Gen Stats also has data on receivers' average separation, "The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion." This is a mixed signal - getting targets with low separation is a sign that your QB trusts you enough to throw it up to you when you're covered and let you make a play on the ball - but it seems relevant to note that Jeffery also has the second lowest average separation over 2016-17 (min 80 targets). That also fits the story of Jeffery losing a step and having trouble getting separation.

Does it?  I am far from a Jeffery fan but that stat doesn't seem particularly relevant to anything.  It has to be the least useful stat out of every stat ever invented.  If anything it probably has a completely negative correlation to fantasy success (IE the worse you rate in yards/separation the more likely you are to be a good fantasy player).  The list of the worst receivers in yards per separation is like a who's who of guys that will be on future HoF ballots while the best receivers in yards per separation are a bunch of afterthoughts.  Ed Dickson is 2nd in the NFL in yards/separation and I'm pretty sure he would run about a 4.8 40 if he were asked to run it at his current age.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, ZWK said:

So maybe we should be flag those 11 guys too (Julian Edelman, Terrance Williams, Keenan Allen, Kenny Britt, Eli Rogers, Rishard Matthews, Tyler Boyd, Jamison Crowder, Jeremy Kerley, Deonte Thompson, Seth Roberts).

LOL at being concerned about Allen based on this stat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To cherry pick around in response, I don't think many are concerned about guys like Allen and Edelman because of their top speed. They are known tacticians when it comes to route running, speed isn't their game and I have no qualms with them being on the slower side as long as they keep those clean routes.

Jeffery is a jump ball guy and it shows in that separation stat. I think it is worth noting that those players you listed are or were the #1 options in their offenses and thus likely to see better and more coverage. But to echo, the Jeffery speed is concerning moreso than the others because he is so highly valued right now. Who knows, maybe he doesn't need the speed and can still be physical, maybe he really was held back by that nagging shoulder last year. There are red flags when looking at his future production and none of them seem to be affecting his cost at the moment.

For Robinson, I think he will be fine. I distinctly remember watching him all year in 2016 and constantly wondering where the hell Bortles was throwing the ball. Many times Robinson would be painfully open from burning his coverage only to have Blake heave up an uncatchable pass. He was not given a fair shake. That said, Chicago's situation being any better is TBD. I would be willing to take a shot on Robinson though because unlike Jeffery, that risk is baked in to his cost right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

20 hours ago, ZWK said:

Allen Robinson fell a bit short of the cutoff for number of touches, but it also seems worth noting that he also never reached the top speed list and would've been 3rd on the low separation list. Smaller sample size with him, and it was the Bortles-led 2016 Jaguars, but this makes me a little less optimistic about his chances of returning to his 2015 form in Chicago.

Another guy I wouldn’t touch at his price. Go back and look at his highlights in his one good year. There were a ton of balls Bortles threw up and Robinson adjusted while the cb got lost. They weren’t even jump balls. Plus all of the garbage time. I think he needs a lot of polish in the short and medium area still and he’ll never hit so many big plays again.

Edited by voiceofunreason
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have been playing around with historical WR VBD data (ppr, based on ppg), as previously discussed here, and decided to see if I could put together a not-completely-ridiculous, purely-by-formula dynasty WR ranking.

I came up with something that is based only on a player's age, and his VBD in each of the past 3 seasons. It works best for WRs who are 28 or older, since their aging curves can generally be projected more easily (they're just flat or down; not much need to worry about their production going up). For those guys, the formula basically assumes that recent production represents the receiver's true ability level, and estimates how many years of that level of production he has left (with partial credit for less productive years).

For younger WRs who have already been moderately productive (like Amari Cooper & Cooper Kupp), the formula also projects some additional development, since that has historically been what happens on average. So it basically assumes N more years of production at a level that is somewhat higher than the receiver's recent level of production. (Though being a year younger does not lead to a full year of expected extra production - in fact it leads to less than half a year extra.)

Top prospects who haven't produced any VBD yet don't get included at all - the formula has no way of distinguishing Corey Davis from Robert Davis. If I wanted to sink more effort into this I could try to combine what I've done here with what I did in my earlier post about prospects.

Here are the rankings. "Value" is a player's projected remaining career VBD using this formula. "Recent VBD" is a weighted average of the player's VBD over the past 3 seasons (with more weight to 2017 and less to 2015). * means the player is under 28 and thus has a less confident projection, and + means that the player has had things going on over the past 2 years which might make their Avg a bad reflection of their talent level (e.g., missing most of a season due to injury, or getting 0 VBD in 2016 because they weren't in the league yet).

Value	Player			Recent VBD	Age	
502	DeAndre Hopkins		113		26.1	*
408	Michael Thomas		79		25.3	*
399	Jarvis Landry		80		25.6	*
398	Antonio Brown		161		30.0	
382	Mike Evans		68		24.9	*
357	Odell Beckham		70		25.7	*+
355	Keenan Allen		75		26.2	*
349	Brandin Cooks		60		24.8	*
341	Davante Adams		64		25.5	*
335	Tyreek Hill		54		24.3	*
295	Stefon Diggs		45		24.6	*
281	Julio Jones		102		29.4	
253	JuJu Smith-Schuster	28		21.6	*+
227	Amari Cooper		27		24.0	*
187	Allen Robinson		19		24.9	*+
183	Adam Thielen		48		27.9	
171	A.J. Green		68		29.9	
167	Doug Baldwin		65		29.8	
156	Robby Anderson		21		25.1	*+
156	Sammy Watkins		12		25.0	*+
156	Sterling Shepard	21		25.4	*
146	Robert Woods		23		26.2	*
143	Devin Funchess		18		24.1	*
134	Marvin Jones		39		28.3	
124	T.Y. Hilton		38		28.6	+
124	Golden Tate		50		29.9	
118	Jordan Matthews		9		26.0	*
103	Demaryius Thomas	46		30.5	
102	Nelson Agholor		13		25.1	*
101	Cooper Kupp		13		25.0	*+
99	Alshon Jeffery		28		28.4	
95	Larry Fitzgerald	86		34.8	
94	Allen Hurns		9		26.6	*
94	Willie Snead		7		25.7	*
84	Jamison Crowder		10		25.0	*
83	Martavis Bryant		6		26.5	*
79	Michael Crabtree	38		30.8	
77	Tyrell Williams		9		26.4	*
59	Rishard Matthews	18		28.7	
58	Kenny Stills		9		26.2	*
57	Dez Bryant		22		29.7	
55	Will Fuller		7		24.2	*
53	Jordy Nelson		37		33.1	
53	Randall Cobb		11		27.9	
49	Cameron Meredith	5		25.8	+
38	Marqise Lee		6		26.6	*
38	Kelvin Benjamin		7		27.4	*
37	Mohamed Sanu		12		28.8	
35	Donte Moncrief		2		24.9	
35	Julian Edelman		21		32.1	+
32	Emmanuel Sanders	17		31.2	
31	Jermaine Kearse		9		28.4	
27	DeVante Parker		4		25.4	
27	Marquise Goodwin	6		27.6	*
26	Chris Hogan		10		29.7	
24	John Brown		4		28.2	+
24	Terrelle Pryor		8		29.0	+
23	Brandon Marshall	19		34.2	+
21	Eric Decker		11		31.3	+
21	Jeremy Maclin		9		30.1	+
20	Pierre Garcon		12		31.9	+
19	Josh Gordon		4		27.2	*+
17	Kenny Britt		6		29.7	+
16	Mike Wallace		10		31.9	
15	Paul Richardson		2		26.2	*
13	DeSean Jackson		7		31.5	
12	Ted Ginn		8		33.2	

There are a bunch of guys who I think should be higher, and pretty straightforward explanations for why the formula rated them lower than I think it should (Beckham, Cooper, Robinson, Watkins, Hilton, Benjamin, Edelman, Parker, Goodwin, Garcon, Gordon), and a smaller number who seem obviously too high (Anderson, J Matthews, Hurns, Nelson). But it seems more interesting to look for places where I might be able to learn something because the formula has an insight that I've been missing.

Three names jump out at me for that: Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry, and Larry Fitzgerald.

Antonio Brown and Larry Fitzgerald are both higher than I expected, and they're vets which means that this formula should work out decently well for them. There hasn't been anything weird going on with their production lately (it has been relatively stable over the past 3 years) and their situations are also reasonably (though not completely) stable. With Brown the formula is basically saying that, based on past elite WRs, on average we can expect about 2.5 more years of production at his 2015-17 level, and that is enough for him to be a top 5 WR. With Fitz, it's saying that on average we can expected a WR like him to have about 1 more year of what he's been doing, and that is good enough for him to rank in the 30s. Both of those takes feel pretty plausible to me. I previously had Fitzgerald at WR54 and am going to move him up a tier. I already had Antonio Brown at WR5 just before a tier break but had been planning to drop him to the top of the next tier; now I'll keep him on tier 2.

Jarvis Landry has averaged 105/1093/5.7 receiving over the past 3 years, which has made him a very good PPR receiver. When I switched my rankings from half PPR to full PPR I moved him up, but this is saying that I didn't move him up nearly enough. I do expect his production to decline a little, while the formula expects it to improve a little, but it looks like he should at least be in Julio Jones - AJ Green territory.

Edited by ZWK
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, ZWK said:

Three names jump out at me for that: Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry, and Larry Fitzgerald.

Antonio Brown and Larry Fitzgerald are both higher than I expected, and they're vets which means that this formula should work out decently well for them. There hasn't been anything weird going on with their production lately (it has been relatively stable over the past 3 years) and their situations are also reasonably (though not completely) stable. With Brown the formula is basically saying that, based on past elite WRs, on average we can expect about 2.5 more years of production at his 2015-17 level, and that is enough for him to be a top 5 WR. With Fitz, it's saying that on average we can expected a WR like him to have about 1 more year of what he's been doing, and that is good enough for him to rank in the 30s. Both of those takes feel pretty plausible to me. I previously had Fitzgerald at WR54 and am going to move him up a tier. I already had Antonio Brown at WR5 just before a tier break but had been planning to drop him to the top of the next tier; now I'll keep him on tier 2.

Jarvis Landry has averaged 105/1093/5.7 receiving over the past 3 years, which has made him a very good PPR receiver. When I switched my rankings from half PPR to full PPR I moved him up, but this is saying that I didn't move him up nearly enough. I do expect his production to decline a little, while the formula expects it to improve a little, but it looks like he should at least be in Julio Jones - AJ Green territory.

:thumbup:

Reinforces my long-held belief that for WRs (and TEs) in dynasty, the "barbell theory" is the way to go - anyone on your roster who's not a young stud should be either a highly productive 30+ yo vet or a young guy with some chance of developing into a stud, even if that chance is relatively small. It costs virtually nothing to acquire the Fitzes and Garcons, and even one year of plug-and-play WR1/2 production from those types buys you another year of development from your stable full of Lees / Merediths / Richardsons / Enunwas ... and hopefully a breakout or two.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

:thumbup:

Reinforces my long-held belief that for WRs (and TEs) in dynasty, the "barbell theory" is the way to go - anyone on your roster who's not a young stud should be either a highly productive 30+ yo vet or a young guy with some chance of developing into a stud, even if that chance is relatively small. It costs virtually nothing to acquire the Fitzes and Garcons, and even one year of plug-and-play WR1/2 production from those types buys you another year of development from your stable full of Lees / Merediths / Richardsons / Enunwas ... and hopefully a breakout or two.

I basically agree (although I wouldn't go all-in on barbell theory). Fitzgerald, Edelman, and Garcon are guys that I'm looking to buy right now.

One way to think about it is that there are increasing returns to production. A 60 VBD guy helps you more than two 30 VBD guys. Normally that's priced in - it is usually expensive to trade for 60 VBD guys. One of the few exceptions is older players like Fitz, where you can get (a good shot at) 1-2 seasons of 60 VBD for an affordable price.

Another angle is the value of a roster space. I could use a roster space to hold onto a decent prospect like Zay Jones or Keelan Cole while I wait to see what he turns into. Or I could use it to get a solid starting WR for a year, and then he retires and I have a free spot which I can use to churn through guys to find a decent prospect. It doesn't take that long to find a Cole-caliber prospect (in not-that-deep leagues), so getting the immediate hit of production is worth it in exchange for that delay in filling that prospect slot with someone decent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you had a dynasty startup draft a decade ago, then with the benefit of hindsight we can see that the top 10 WRs (based on remaining career VBD) should've been:

944    Calvin Johnson
833    Brandon Marshall*
768    Larry Fitzgerald*
689    Andre Johnson
622    Wes Welker
616    Roddy White
504    Jordy Nelson*
447    Reggie Wayne
424    Steve Smith
391    Anquan Boldin

*still active

The Patriots' then-27-year-old slot receiver was coming off his breakout year. He averaged 106/1177/6.5 (and 15 games played) over his next 6 seasons.

Another data point in favor of boosting Jarvis Landry's ranking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, ZWK said:

If you had a dynasty startup draft a decade ago, then with the benefit of hindsight we can see that the top 10 WRs (based on remaining career VBD) should've been:

944    Calvin Johnson
833    Brandon Marshall*
768    Larry Fitzgerald*
689    Andre Johnson
622    Wes Welker
616    Roddy White
504    Jordy Nelson*
447    Reggie Wayne
424    Steve Smith
391    Anquan Boldin

*still active

The Patriots' then-27-year-old slot receiver was coming off his breakout year. He averaged 106/1177/6.5 (and 15 games played) over his next 6 seasons.

Another data point in favor of boosting Jarvis Landry's ranking.

Would love to see a non-PPR version

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Non-ppr top 10 WRs for 2008 startup drafts (non-devy):

714    Calvin Johnson
529    Brandon Marshall*
467    Larry Fitzgerald*
428    Andre Johnson
403    Jordy Nelson*
399    Roddy White
323    Vincent Jackson
321    Wes Welker
320    DeSean Jackson*
303    Steve Smith

In general there is about 1.4x as much VBD in ppr than in non-ppr, so Calvin's 714 is actually better than his ppr 944 (relative to other WRs) and the switch to non-PPR really only cost Welker a little over a quarter of his value relative to other WRs.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, ZWK said:

If you had a dynasty startup draft a decade ago, then with the benefit of hindsight we can see that the top 10 WRs (based on remaining career VBD) should've been:

944    Calvin Johnson
833    Brandon Marshall*
768    Larry Fitzgerald*
689    Andre Johnson
622    Wes Welker
616    Roddy White
504    Jordy Nelson*
447    Reggie Wayne
424    Steve Smith
391    Anquan Boldin

*still active

The Patriots' then-27-year-old slot receiver was coming off his breakout year. He averaged 106/1177/6.5 (and 15 games played) over his next 6 seasons.

Another data point in favor of boosting Jarvis Landry's ranking.

The formula is missing something: QB. Welker played with Brady and Manning. Landry may be looking at 3 years of Mr. 56, Josh Allen (or just a young developing QB anyway). 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • ZWK changed the title to ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...