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ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)


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The WR list just underscores how much I don't like the position right now in dynasty leagues (or redraft, for that matter).

The old generation of greats (Demaryius/Dez/Green/Julio/AB/etc) is approaching the end of their athletic prime and the young guys aren't quite as convincing. Once you get past guys like JuJu, Hilton, and Green on that list, you're looking at some pretty underwhelming options. If I were doing a dynasty startup this year, I'd probably focus on QB/RB/TE in the middle rounds since the quality seems higher there, and then try to take some cheap dice rolls later at WR.

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I've been looking over historical TE VBD from the past 30 years. Three patterns jumped out: 1. How top-heavy the position is. A few guys account for a large fraction of all fantasy value. Last ye

Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming PPR, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 3/24/18. Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev 1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.

WR rankings after 4.1 weeks. PPR, start 3 WR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 10/8/20. Prev from my unpublished draft rankings 9/9/20 (which weren't fully up-to-date); my last posted ra

40 minutes ago, EBF said:

The WR list just underscores how much I don't like the position right now in dynasty leagues (or redraft, for that matter).

The old generation of greats (Demaryius/Dez/Green/Julio/AB/etc) is approaching the end of their athletic prime and the young guys aren't quite as convincing. Once you get past guys like JuJu, Hilton, and Green on that list, you're looking at some pretty underwhelming options. If I were doing a dynasty startup this year, I'd probably focus on QB/RB/TE in the middle rounds since the quality seems higher there, and then try to take some cheap dice rolls later at WR.

I have a dynasty team that is thin at WR and this is exactly what I'm running into.  I don't want to pay premium prices for declining assets, but I also don't trust myself to win the gamble of which completely unproven youngster is worth the same premium.

QB was in this boat a year or so ago, but the influx of talent the past two drafts should solve that going forward.

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1 hour ago, EBF said:

The WR list just underscores how much I don't like the position right now in dynasty leagues (or redraft, for that matter).

The old generation of greats (Demaryius/Dez/Green/Julio/AB/etc) is approaching the end of their athletic prime and the young guys aren't quite as convincing. Once you get past guys like JuJu, Hilton, and Green on that list, you're looking at some pretty underwhelming options. If I were doing a dynasty startup this year, I'd probably focus on QB/RB/TE in the middle rounds since the quality seems higher there, and then try to take some cheap dice rolls later at WR.

Funny how quickly rb and wrs have switched around. I’d love to trade Antonio Brown in one league but the guys I could get back are so underwhelming. 

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1 hour ago, EBF said:

The WR list just underscores how much I don't like the position right now in dynasty leagues (or redraft, for that matter).

The old generation of greats (Demaryius/Dez/Green/Julio/AB/etc) is approaching the end of their athletic prime and the young guys aren't quite as convincing. Once you get past guys like JuJu, Hilton, and Green on that list, you're looking at some pretty underwhelming options. If I were doing a dynasty startup this year, I'd probably focus on QB/RB/TE in the middle rounds since the quality seems higher there, and then try to take some cheap dice rolls later at WR.

The nice thing about WR is that there are so many of them. That makes it a lot easier to shop around and find someone undervalued. John Ross, Robby Anderson, and Julian Edelman are relatively undervalued right now, I think, although it varies from league to league. I got good deals (IMO) on Jarvis Landry, Golden Tate, and Larry Fitzgerald earlier this offseason. And there are plenty of rookie draft rd 2 type prospects, or potential redraft WR3s, in my WR tiers 7 & 8 (which includes 37 guys ranked 34-70).

Since you brought up Green & Hilton:

20 hours ago, ZWK said:

5    16    A.J. Green    CIN    30.1    (14)
5    17    T.Y. Hilton    IND    28.8    (15)
5    18    Adam Thielen    MIN    28.0    (19)
5    21    Doug Baldwin    SEA    29.9    (23)

I am wary of AJ Green in dynasty. He is only going slightly ahead of guys like Hilton, Thielen, and Baldwin in redraft, and all of those guys are younger than him (Thielen by 2 years). But a lot of people have Green significantly ahead of the other 3 in dynasty. I'd still take Green ahead of the others, but I see them as a lot closer.

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2 hours ago, Silver & Black said:

First, I appreciate the effort that goes into your rankings and posts.  But that said, how in the world can you rank Eiffert, Tyler Eiffert ahead of Olsen.  I can understand not being high on Olsen, but listing a guy that has had a million surgeries and has no chance to stay healthy for anywhere close to a whole season, IMO, is madness.  Before breaking his foot, Olsen was an iron man and a very trusted target of Newton.  Putting Olsen in tier 5, ranked as 18 TE smacks of personal bias to me.   

Olsen's last 16 games (including playoffs): 60/698/2
Eifert's last 16 games (including playoffs): 53/679/9

(This would be a bit more in Eifert's favor if we limited it to regular season games.)

Of course Olsen was hampered by a foot injury for some of those games. But I'm not sure if the fact that a now-33-year-old TE was struggling through a foot injury is a reason to be more optimistic about him or a reason to be more pessimistic about him; injures often play a role in the decline of older receivers. Also, his numbers were down over the second half of the 2016 season.

Of course, Eifert's games stretch back to the 2015 season because he keeps getting injured. That is a bad sign, and it's why I don't have him as a top 10 TE. But he is still just 28, and if he manages to get healthy then he could have a few big seasons left.

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

I am wary of AJ Green in dynasty. He is only going slightly ahead of guys like Hilton, Thielen, and Baldwin in redraft, and all of those guys are younger than him (Thielen by 2 years). But a lot of people have Green significantly ahead of the other 3 in dynasty. I'd still take Green ahead of the others, but I see them as a lot closer.

There's an argument that Green's talent has always been slightly overrated. At one point a few years back he was regarded as the #1 WR in dynasty. Although good, he has never really ascended into dominant territory ala Julio/Calvin/AB. His yards per target tends to be a little bit lower compared to some of the truly super elite guys. That being said, I think I understand why he's viewed differently than people like Baldwin and Thielen.

Green has been in the league for seven years and has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards six times, and that one season he fell short was only due to injury. He's a former top 5 overall draft pick who has been in the Pro Bowl conversation virtually every season since entering the league. Thielen and Baldwin are low-profile late bloomers who toiled in the NFL for years before becoming truly relevant in FF. Baldwin has two 1,000+ yard seasons and Thielen has one. They each also have an additional 900+ yard season.

There's no rule that late bloomers have shorter shelf lives than early impact guys, but I just think the success of Thielen and Baldwin feels less repeatable and more likely to be a fluke than Green's. I think Green is viewed as a superior talent, and most people would assume he's more likely to remain productive deep into his career since he has more room to drop off and still remain effective.

Personally, I've always looked at Green as being pretty similar to Reggie Wayne. Similar body type, playing style, and skill set. Wayne aged really well and was good until his knee injury. I believe Green is more likely to follow that path than Thielen and Baldwin, who I don't quite trust and can imagine falling back out of relevance pretty quickly. So while I see where you're coming from, I think maybe the "staying power" factor is pretty strong here and that's an area where Green trumps those two even though he's similarly aged and with seemingly similar redraft prospects. I'm a multi-league Thielen owner and I'd be pretty happy to shift him for Green tbh.

 

1 hour ago, ZWK said:

The nice thing about WR is that there are so many of them. That makes it a lot easier to shop around and find someone undervalued. John Ross, Robby Anderson, and Julian Edelman are relatively undervalued right now, I think, although it varies from league to league. I got good deals (IMO) on Jarvis Landry, Golden Tate, and Larry Fitzgerald earlier this offseason. And there are plenty of rookie draft rd 2 type prospects, or potential redraft WR3s, in my WR tiers 7 & 8 (which includes 37 guys ranked 34-70).

I like Ross as well. Last year was a redshirt and we should get a better idea of who he is this season. I'm not sky high, but I think he's good value at his ADP.

In terms of some other discount bin types, Marquise Goodwin strikes me as a good flip opportunity if you believe he's going to pick up where he left off with Garoppolo. Very productive duo in the second half of last season. I don't have a lot of long-term faith in Goodwin though. Some flyer types that I'd be willing to take a punt on: Dorsett, Enunwa, P Richardson, K White, Treadwell. I guess I have a soft spot for former high picks who are still trying to figure it out. There's a tendency to write most of these guys off as busts and I get that, but it's actually pretty hard to make a roster, so you at least know some of these guys are showing something in practice. With a guy like Treadwell, the fact that Thielen and Diggs are thriving actually helps his value, as it makes it easier to forgive his lack of production (because if the guys who are beating you out for snaps are good then maybe you're not necessarily bad -- you just might not be as good).

Really low faith in that cluster of players though and in the dynasty WR landscape in general. Guys will produce, but without the benefit of hindsight, there aren't many I trust. Get a proven Pro Bowler early and try to snag JuJu or Hill as your WR2 if possible. Both of those guys are top 10 WR worthy IMO. Then play the late round lotto. That would probably be my startup strategy at WR.

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Finishing off my updated dynasty rankings with RBs headed into the season. Assuming PPR, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 5/8/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Todd Gurley    RAM    24.1    (2)
2    2    LeVeon Bell    PIT    26.5    (1)
2    3    Saquon Barkley    NYG    21.6    (3)
2    4    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    23.1    (5)
2    5    David Johnson    ARI    26.7    (4)
2    6    Leonard Fournette    JAX    23.6    (6)
2    7    Alvin Kamara    NO    23.1    (7)
3    8    Christian McCaffrey    CAR    22.2    (9)
3    9    Kareem Hunt    KC    23.1    (8)
3    10    Dalvin Cook    MIN    23.1    (11)
3    11    Melvin Gordon    LAC    25.4    (10)
3    12    Devonta Freeman    ATL    26.5    (12)
3    13    Joe Mixon    CIN    22.1    (13)
4    14    Rashaad Penny    SEA    22.6    (14)
4    15    Jordan Howard    CHI    23.8    (17)
4    16    Nick Chubb    CLE    22.7    (15)
4    17    Derrick Henry    TEN    24.1    (21)
4    18    Royce Freeman    DEN    22.5    (24)
4    19    Sony Michel    NE    23.5    (16)
5    20    Alex Collins    BAL    24.0    (28)
5    21    Derrius Guice    WAS    21.2    (20)
5    22    Ronald Jones II    TB    21.1    (19)
5    23    Kerryon Johnson    DET    21.2    (26)
5    24    Kenyan Drake    MIA    24.6    (29)
5    25    LeSean McCoy    BUF    30.1    (25)
5    26    Lamar Miller    HOU    27.4    (27)
5    27    Jay Ajayi    PHI    25.2    (23)
5    28    Jerick McKinnon    SF    26.3    (18)
5    29    Mark Ingram    NO    28.7    (22)
6    30    Tevin Coleman    ATL    25.4    (30)
6    31    Isaiah Crowell    NYJ    25.6    (32)
6    32    Chris Carson    SEA    24.0    (49)
6    33    Dion Lewis    TEN    27.9    (33)
6    34    Jamaal Williams    GB    23.4    (38)
6    35    Rex Burkhead    NE    28.2    (53)
6    36    Aaron Jones    GB    23.7    (34)
6    37    Nyheim Hines    IND    21.8    (31)
7    38    Chris Thompson    WAS    27.9    (39)
7    39    Duke Johnson    CLE    24.9    (36)
7    40    Peyton Barber    TB    24.5    (80)
7    41    James Conner    PIT    23.3    (46)
7    42    Carlos Hyde    CLE    27.9    (41)
7    43    Marlon Mack    IND    22.7    (40)
7    44    Tarik Cohen    CHI    23.1    (42)
7    45    D'Onta Foreman    HOU    22.4    (37)
8    46    James White    NE    26.6    (48)
8    47    C.J. Anderson    CAR    27.6    (35)
8    48    Ty Montgomery    GB    25.6    (43)
8    49    Marshawn Lynch    OAK    32.4    (47)
8    50    Giovani Bernard    CIN    26.8    (50)
8    51    Corey Clement    PHI    23.8    (51)
8    52    Austin Ekeler    LAC    23.3    (57)
8    53    Alfred Morris    SF    29.7    (99)
8    54    Theo Riddick    DET    27.3    (44)
8    55    Latavius Murray    MIN    27.5    (61)
8    56    Adrian Peterson    WAS    33.4    (81)
8    57    Bilal Powell    NYJ    29.8    (60)
8    58    Matt Breida    SF    23.5    (59)
8    59    Jeremy Hill    NE    25.9    (68)
9    60    Samaje Perine    WAS    23.0    (54)
9    61    Spencer Ware    KC    26.8    (52)
9    62    C.J. Prosise    SEA    24.3    (45)
9    63    Jordan Wilkins    IND    24.1    (56)
9    64    Devontae Booker    DEN    26.3    (55)
9    65    Rob Kelley    WAS    25.9    (76)
9    66    T.J. Yeldon    JAX    24.9    (73)
9    67    Mark Walton    CIN    21.4    (58)
9    68    Ito Smith    ATL    23.0    (62)
9    69    Ameer Abdullah    DET    25.2    (63)
9    70    Doug Martin    OAK    29.6    (64)
9    71    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    24.6    (65)
9    72    Elijah McGuire    NYJ    24.3    (71)
9    73    Chris Ivory    BUF    30.4    (84)
9    74    LeGarrette Blount    DET    31.7    (72)
9    75    Chase Edmonds    ARI    22.4    (87)
9    76    Jaylen Samuels    PIT    22.1    (74)
9    77    J.D. McKissic    SEA    25.0    (69)
9    78    Frank Gore    MIA    35.3    (67)
9    79    Kalen Ballage    MIA    22.7    (79)
9    80    John Kelly    RAM    21.9    (95)
9    81    Rod Smith    DAL    26.6    (91)
9    82    Boston Scott    NO    23.3    (83)
9    83    Mike Gillislee    NO    27.8    (75)
9    84    Darren Sproles    PHI    35.2    (78)
9    85    Javorius Allen    BAL    27.0    (86)
9    86    Phillip Lindsay    DEN    24.1    unr
9    87    Mike Davis    SEA    25.5    (104)
9    88    Christine Michael    IND    27.8    (108)
10    89    Robert Turbin    IND    28.7    (92)
10    90    Jonathan Williams        24.6    unr
10    91    Orleans Darkwa        26.5    (66)
10    92    Chris Warren    OAK    22.2    unr
10    93    Jonathan Stewart    NYG    31.4    (88)
10    94    Jalen Richard    OAK    24.9    (89)
10    95    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    24.6    (90)
10    96    DeAndre Washington    OAK    25.5    (96)
10    97    Wayne Gallman    NYG    23.9    (93)
10    98    Benny Cunningham    CHI    28.2    (107)
10    99    Alfred Blue    HOU    27.3    unr
10    100    Akrum Wadley        23.5    unr
10    101    Terrance West        27.6    (94)
10    102    Cameron Artis-Payne    CAR    28.2    (97)
10    103    Malcolm Brown    RAM    25.3    (100)
10    104    Jacquizz Rodgers    TB    28.6    (106)
10    105    Damien Williams    KC    26.4    unr
10    106    Byron Marshall    WAS    24.5    unr

Falling out of the rankings: DeMarco Murray (70), Thomas Rawls (77), and some guys from tier 10.

Paying more attention to redraft rankings, and making my own draft board for a dynasty startup draft, convinced me to agree with the crowd that Gurley should be the #1 and a tier ahead of Bell. Gurley is the top player in fantasy football in most formats.

Most of the reshuffling in the top 30 is based on what we've seen from rookies this offseason, with an occasional injury mixed in.

In March I was relatively high on Chris Carson (then my RB28) and Peyton Barber (then my RB48) based on their position at the top of the depth chart and the fact that Seattle & Tampa didn't have a ton of draft capital to upgrade at RB (more here). I downgraded them a bunch after the draft, but now they have bounced back and I am in the convenient position of still owning a fair amount of them.

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16 minutes ago, Casting Couch said:

Good stuff, ZWK.

I would bump Breida,  Edmonds, and John Kelly up 10 slots based on potential alone, and Reddick, McKinnon and Chris Thompson down 10 based on unfulfilled potential and ceiling hit. 

McKinnon was being taken in the 2nd round of redrafts just a week ago. Injury took away his chance to hit that level of production this year, but if all goes well that's where he'll be next year. (Though he's 10 slots lower than he was a week ago, since he'll miss this season and maybe all won't go well for him.)

Chris Thompson was RB10 in PPR PPG last year (min 8 games), and has weak competition for RB snaps in Washington this year. RB10 would be a pretty nice ceiling for a guy who I have at RB37.

Riddick has a shot to be an adequate desperation start in PPR leagues this year. He looks better for that role than any of the guys who I have in tier 9+.

John Kelly is a nothing-special prospect whose main accomplishments are beating out Malcolm Brown for the backup RB role and often having his name used in the same sentence as Todd Gurley.

Matt Breida is undersized and has never done much as a receiver.

The Arizona offense has less handcuff value than places like PIT, DAL, & LAR because it's not a very good offense. Edmonds is more of an unknown coming from the FCS so he might have higher upside, but the base rates for late 4th round RBs are not that good.

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Curious how much you guys move Chad Williams up in your rankings since he's been announced starter.  I know Kirk is the higher pedigree guy who was selected in the 2nd and he's going to get his opportunities, but I keep find myself wondering what's there with Williams.

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On 7/25/2018 at 0:24 AM, ZWK said:

Darren Sproles has consistently been a 10ppg guy in Philly (PPR), and he has been free or very cheap to acquire. At age 35, on a cheap contract, coming off a torn ACL, with Clement looking good in the playoffs, he might be a lot less than a 10ppg guy this year. But he might still be a 10ppg guy, in which case he'll provide nice RB depth at very little cost (especially in deeper leagues and best ball leagues, which are overrepresented among the leagues that I'm in). And we're likely to have a pretty good idea by week 3 (if not sooner) which of those worlds we're in, so if he is diminished then it'll be easy to cut him and move on to play the waiver wire.

Looks like this year will be a lot like his previous seasons in Philly. 5 carries + 7 targets was a bit bigger than his Philly workload has typically been, although Sproles didn't generate many yards with his touches. He also got 2 carries from inside the ATL 10 (one of which was negated by penalty).

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A few more guys who have had an increase in dynasty value after week 1 (these aren't the biggest movers, just a few interesting ones):

RB Jordan Howard CHI: My refrain on him as been that his lack of receiving ability limits his fantasy value. He was one of the worst receiving backs in the NFL over his first 2 years, with tons of drops, a low yards per target, and a deservedly low number of targets. There was talk this offseason about him working on his receiving skills, but there was similar talk during the previous offseason and then his 2nd year was even worse than his first. This week he had 5 receptions on 5 targets, he caught some balls that weren't easy catches, and got the ball on plays that weren't just a desperation dumpoff. He didn't make a ton happen on those plays - just 25 yards and no first downs - but it's still a sign that he can be an adequate receiver.

TE Jordan Akins HOU: His 2/11/0 line wasn't impressive, but it's a good sign that Akins was on the field for half the Texans' offensive snaps in the first regular season game of his career. He played behind Ryan Griffin (85% of snaps) but ahead of Jordan Thomas (19% of snaps), and Griffin is a mediocre starter who won't be a huge barrier if Akins develops.

QB Jameis Winston TB: Good news: huge week 1 for Tampa's passing offense, with 417 & 4 and the receiving corps looking really strong and deep. Could be a high-flying offense all year, and most of their weapons are young and under contract for awhile. Bad news: they did that with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, and Winston might not even get his job back when he returns. Fantasy QB is all about upside, so the good news outweighs the bad. For Winston's fantasy value, the chance of leading a high-flying passing offense more than makes up for the chance of sitting on the bench.

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On 9/7/2018 at 1:31 AM, ZWK said:

Looks like this year will be a lot like his previous seasons in Philly. 5 carries + 7 targets was a bit bigger than his Philly workload has typically been, although Sproles didn't generate many yards with his touches. He also got 2 carries from inside the ATL 10 (one of which was negated by penalty).

If you watched him he was not as super quick as he used to be. He was quick, but it was just not the same. 

He owned the first half and did nothing with it. The team went away from him in the second and the O started producing.

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Rookie TE watch:

Pick 25 Hayden Hurst BAL out with a foot injury. Week-to-week, listed as 1st on the depth chart.

Pick 42 Mike Gesicki MIA: played 34% of snaps, well behind Derby. 7% target share for 1/11/0.

Pick 49 Dallas Goedert PHI: played 24% of snaps, well behind Ertz. 9% target share for 1/4/0.

Pick 86 Mark Andrews BAL: played 28% of snaps, well behind Boyle & Williams, with Hurst out. 11% target share for 3/31/0.

Pick 98 Jordan Akins HOU: played 50% of snaps, well behind Griffin. 6% target share for 2/11/0.

Pick 101 Ian Thomas CAR: played 55% of snaps, just ahead of blocking TE Manhertz, mainly after Olsen went out. 8% target share for 2/4/0.

Pick 107 Chris Herndon NYJ: played 57% of snaps, just behind Sterling and just ahead of Tomlinson. Wasn't targeted.

Pick 120 Will Dissly SEA: played 58% of snaps, just behind Vannett. 15% target share for 3/105/1.

Data from Football Outsiders, SSND, PFR.

The early round guys are still buried on the depth chart and didn't do much, though Hurst might step right into a big role once he's healthy. Dissly is the only guy who had the snaps, targets, and production. Akins, Thomas, and Herndon were all on the field a fair amount but didn't get many looks or yards. Andrews was very effective as a receiver on his snaps but was buried down the depth chart; some of that might be game script with the Ravens preferring better blockers with a big lead, though on the other hand it could be tougher to get snaps once Hurst comes back. All 8 of these guys still look like they have a shot to contribute this year.

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WR rankings after week 2. Assuming PPR, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/18/18. Prev from 9/1/18. These are a little rushed but it seems better to post these than to post nothing; I've put more effort into the top half of the rankings than the bottom half.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    25.9    (1)
1    2    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    26.3    (2)
2    3    Michael Thomas    NO    25.5    (3)
2    4    Mike Evans    TB    25.1    (4)
2    5    Keenan Allen    LAC    26.4    (6)
2    6    Tyreek Hill    KC    24.6    (8)
3    7    Antonio Brown    PIT    30.2    (5)
3    8    JuJu Smith-Schuster    PIT    21.8    (15)
3    9    Davante Adams    GB    25.7    (7)
3    10    Jarvis Landry    CLE    25.8    (10)
3    11    Julio Jones    ATL    29.6    (11)
3    12    Brandin Cooks    RAM    25.0    (12)
3    13    Stefon Diggs    MIN    24.8    (14)
3    14    Amari Cooper    OAK    24.3    (9)
4    15    Allen Robinson    CHI    25.1    (13)
4    16    A.J. Green    CIN    30.1    (16)
4    17    Adam Thielen    MIN    28.1    (18)
4    18    T.Y. Hilton    IND    28.8    (17)
4    19    Corey Davis    TEN    23.7    (20)
4    20    D.J. Moore    CAR    21.4    (19)
4    21    Sammy Watkins    KC    25.3    (22)
4    22    Mike Williams    LAC    24.0    (28)
5    23    Doug Baldwin    SEA    30.0    (21)
5    24    Courtland Sutton    DEN    22.9    (23)
5    25    Calvin Ridley    ATL    23.7    (24)
5    26    Golden Tate    DET    30.1    (26)
5    27    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    28.6    (29)
5    28    Will Fuller    HOU    24.4    (30)
5    29    Kenny Golladay    DET    24.9    (44)
6    30    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    30.7    (25)
6    31    Marvin Jones    DET    28.5    (31)
6    32    Chris Godwin    TB    22.6    (38)
6    33    John Ross    CIN    22.8    (32)
6    34    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    31.4    (56)
7    35    Randall Cobb    GB    28.1    (50)
7    36    Josh Gordon    NE    27.4    (27)
7    37    Cooper Kupp    RAM    25.3    (36)
7    38    Robby Anderson    NYJ    25.4    (33)
7    39    Devin Funchess    CAR    24.3    (35)
7    40    Nelson Agholor    PHI    25.3    (58)
7    41    Tre’Quan Smith    NO    22.7    (39)
7    42    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    35.0    (41)
7    43    Anthony Miller    CHI    23.9    (34)
7    44    DeVante Parker    MIA    25.7    (40)
7    45    Christian Kirk    ARI    21.8    (42)
7    46    Marquise Goodwin    SF    27.8    (45)
7    47    James Washington    PIT    22.5    (46)
7    48    Keelan Cole    JAX    25.4    (64)
7    49    Quincy Enunwa    NYJ    26.3    (90)
7    50    Julian Edelman    NE    32.3    (47)
7    51    Sterling Shepard    NYG    25.6    (37)
7    52    Kelvin Benjamin    BUF    27.6    (43)
7    53    Dante Pettis    SF    22.9    (57)
7    54    Chris Hogan    NE    29.9    (48)
7    55    John Brown    BAL    28.5    (66)
7    56    Kenny Stills    MIA    26.4    (65)
8    57    Michael Gallup    DAL    22.5    (49)
8    58    Robert Woods    RAM    26.4    (51)
8    59    Dez Bryant        29.9    (52)
8    60    Tyler Lockett    SEA    26.0    (59)
8    61    Cameron Meredith    NO    26.0    (54)
8    62    DeSean Jackson    TB    31.7    (85)
8    63    Josh Doctson    WAS    25.8    (53)
8    64    Taywan Taylor    TEN    23.5    (55)
8    65    Geronimo Allison    GB    24.7    (78)
8    66    Jamison Crowder    WAS    25.3    (60)
8    67    D.J. Chark    JAX    22.0    (61)
8    68    Michael Crabtree    BAL    31.0    (62)
8    69    Phillip Dorsett    NE    25.7    (83)
8    70    Antonio Callaway    CLE    21.7    (67)
8    71    Zay Jones    BUF    23.5    (72)
8    72    Keke Coutee    HOU    21.7    (70)
8    73    Dede Westbrook    JAX    24.8    (79)
8    74    Pierre Garcon    SF    32.1    (63)
8    75    Donte Moncrief    JAX    25.1    (68)
9    76    Allen Hurns    DAL    26.9    (69)
9    77    Marqise Lee    JAX    26.8    (71)
9    78    Tyler Boyd    CIN    24.8    (89)
9    79    Ted Ginn    NO    33.4    (88)
9    80    Ryan Grant    IND    27.7    (81)
9    81    Curtis Samuel    CAR    22.1    (73)
9    82    Paul Richardson    WAS    26.4    (74)
9    83    Martavis Bryant    OAK    26.7    (122)
9    84    Tyrell Williams    LAC    26.6    (75)
9    85    Jordy Nelson    OAK    33.3    (76)
9    86    Rishard Matthews    TEN    28.9    (77)
10    87    Danny Amendola    MIA    32.8    (97)
10    88    Chad Williams    ARI    23.9    (80)
10    89    DaeSean Hamilton    DEN    23.5    (82)
10    90    Terrelle Pryor    NYJ    29.2    (84)
10    91    Taylor Gabriel    CHI    27.6    (109)
10    92    Laquon Treadwell    MIN    23.3    (86)
10    93    Jordan Lasley    BAL    21.8    (87)
10    94    Marquez Valdes-Scantling    GB    23.9    (91)
10    95    Deon Cain    IND    22.1    (92)
10    96    Jordan Matthews        26.2    (93)
10    97    Mohamed Sanu    ATL    29.0    (95)
10    98    Cole Beasley    DAL    29.4    (96)
10    99    Albert Wilson    MIA    26.2    (110)
10    100    Jermaine Kearse    NYJ    28.6    (98)
10    101    Willie Snead    BAL    25.9    (101)
11    102    Chris Conley    KC    25.9    (120)
11    103    Rashard Higgins    CLE    23.9    (125)
11    104    Kevin White    CHI    26.2    (94)
11    105    Richie James    SF    23.0    unr
11    106    Chester Rogers    IND    24.7    (99)
11    107    Cordarrelle Patterson    NE    27.5    (100)
11    108    Jeremy Maclin        30.3    (102)
11    109    J'Mon Moore    GB    23.3    (103)
11    110    ArDarius Stewart    NYJ    24.8    (104)
11    111    Trent Taylor    SF    24.4    (105)
11    112    Brandon Marshall    SEA    34.4    (106)
11    113    Equanimeous St. Brown    GB    22.0    (107)
11    114    Torrey Smith    CAR    29.6    (108)
11    115    Brandon Zylstra    MIN    25.5    (111)
11    116    Josh Malone    CIN    22.5    (112)
11    117    Corey Coleman        24.2    (115)
11    118    Shelton Gibson    PHI    23.5    (116)
11    119    Bruce Ellington    HOU    27.1    (134)
11    120    Jarius Wright    CAR    28.8    unr
11    121    Mike Wallace    PHI    32.1    (114)
11    122    J.J. Nelson    ARI    26.4    (117)
11    123    Cody Latimer    NYG    25.9    (118)
11    124    Justin Watson    TB    23.5    (119)
11    125    Mack Hollins    PHI    25.0    (121)
11    126    Josh Reynolds    RAM    23.6    (123)
11    127    Travis Benjamin    LAC    28.7    (124)
11    128    Tajae Sharpe    TEN    23.7    (126)
11    129    Terrance Williams    DAL    29.0    (127)
11    130    Jaron Brown    SEA    28.7    (128)
11    131    Andre Holmes    BUF    30.3    unr
11    132    Brandon LaFell    OAK    31.8    (157)

Antonio Brown no longer looking like he's a huge target hog / dominant #1 overall redraft WR. Tyreek jumps up to tier 2, although he only moves a couple spots in the rankings. JuJu, Mike Williams, and Golladay looking good to start their second season. Tier 7 surprisingly tightly packed; it feels like any random reshuffle of those 22 WRs would be a plausible ranking.

Edited by ZWK
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Rankings can be picked apart, so they're always appreciated.  

Question as to why you're so low on Antonio Callaway.  As a guy who's very talented, 21 years old, just got put into a starting role, and already has flashed serious talent, I wonder why he DROPPED in your rankings.  He showed some of his ability with that beautiful 47 yard TD catch where he caught it with his hands in the back of the endzone while running at full speed and getting his feet in easily.  I think you're tremendously low on a guy with that talent and opportunity, unless you think he's still risky to put higher because of his off-the-field history.

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Tyrell Williams seems incredibly low to me.  He has a 1k receiving year, about to be a free agent and has kept Mike Williams at bay so far (although still productive, just hasn't lost his job or anything to him).  Anyone can nip-pick rankings but Tyrell seems insanely far off.  

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19 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Tyrell Williams seems incredibly low to me.  He has a 1k receiving year, about to be a free agent and has kept Mike Williams at bay so far (although still productive, just hasn't lost his job or anything to him).  Anyone can nip-pick rankings but Tyrell seems insanely far off.  

As a Chargers fan who has followed Tyrell throughout his time with the Chargers, I disagree.

He has a 1K receiving season that was mainly due to volume the team had no choice but to give him when Allen, Stevie Johnson, and Woodhead all went down for the season before halftime of week 2 and Benjamin played through a PCL injury. He did show good potential in that season, but he has not played at that level since.

Tyrell's physical skills are top notch, but his WR skills are not - he runs poor routes, makes bad reads, does not perform well on contested catches, and his hands are questionable. In week 1, he flat out dropped a perfectly thrown TD in the end zone, and he failed to make a play on another potential TD that was contested.

The notion that he has kept Mike Williams at bay may be technically true, but Mike was hurt all season as a rookie and is on the verge of surpassing Tyrell after 2 weeks this season. In week 1, Tyrell outsnapped Mike 62-44; in week 2, he still led in snaps, but 45-39 (the Chargers had 82 offensive snaps in week 1, but just 55 in week 2).

I expect the Chargers will let Tyrell walk as a UFA this offseason. What is his realistic upside? While some team might sign him to be a starting WR2, how many teams would bring him in to be the #2 or #3 target in their passing game? Probably no team as the #2 target, and I am skeptical about #3 target. But a #4 target just isn't typically very valuable. It's not like he is particularly young - he turns 27 in February.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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14 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

As a Chargers fan who has followed Tyrell throughout his time with the Chargers, I disagree.

He has a 1K receiving season that was mainly due to volume the team had no choice but to give him when Allen, Stevie Johnson, and Woodhead all went down for the season before halftime of week 2 and Benjamin played through a PCL injury. He did show good potential in that season, but he has not played at that level since.

Tyrell's physical skills are top notch, but his WR skills are not - he runs poor routes, makes bad reads, does not perform well on contested catches, and his hands are questionable. In week 1, he flat out dropped a perfectly thrown TD in the end zone, and he failed to make a play on another potential TD that was contested.

The notion that he has kept Mike Williams at bay may be technically true, but Mike was hurt all season as a rookie and is on the verge of surpassing Tyrell after 2 weeks this season. In week 1, Tyrell outsnapped Mike 62-44; in week 2, he still led in snaps, but 45-39 (the Chargers had 82 offensive snaps in week 1, but just 55 in week 2).

I expect the Chargers will let Tyrell walk as a UFA this offseason. What is his realistic upside? While some team might sign him to be a starting WR2, how many teams would bring him in to be the #2 or #3 target in their passing game? Probably no team as the #2 target, and I am skeptical about #3 target. But a #4 target just isn't typically very valuable. It's not like he is particularly young - he turns 27 in February.

I don't watch the Chargers very often so I appreciate the homer response.  I agree that he did have his best season when others were out, but that's even more impressive.  When he's the only weapon to be out there and still gets it done in his 2nd year, gaining lots of trust from Rivers, that speaks to his talent not as an athlete but as a WR.  I think that's where I disagree, but again I don't really watch them so I can't really judge on his routes or his reads or anything of that nature.  Yes he dropped an easy TD but the positive is that he created that WIDE open space as well with a little bit of give up by the corner.  I expect him to be a #2 or #3 WR for a new team next year.  Not that the situation is likely to improve from being a Charger though.  

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3 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I don't watch the Chargers very often so I appreciate the homer response.  I agree that he did have his best season when others were out, but that's even more impressive.  When he's the only weapon to be out there and still gets it done in his 2nd year, gaining lots of trust from Rivers, that speaks to his talent not as an athlete but as a WR.  I think that's where I disagree, but again I don't really watch them so I can't really judge on his routes or his reads or anything of that nature.  Yes he dropped an easy TD but the positive is that he created that WIDE open space as well with a little bit of give up by the corner.  I expect him to be a #2 or #3 WR for a new team next year.  Not that the situation is likely to improve from being a Charger though.  

Actually, I disagree again. That season when they had to force the ball to Tyrell, it did not work out well. Per PFF, when Rivers targeted Tyrell in 2016, he had a passer rating of just 80.9. Again, that was partly due to Tyrell's weaknesses - poor/wrong routes, poor at contested balls, poor reads, poor hands. Rivers threw 9 interceptions targeting Tyrell in 2016... while some of that was of course Rivers' fault, IMO most of it was on Tyrell's previously mentioned weaknesses.

He did not gain a lot of trust from Rivers in that season. I am a NC State alum, so I have watched Rivers throughout his college and pro career, and I never saw him get on a player close to as much as he did with Tyrell in 2016. I think the proof is in the targets. In 2016, Tyrell had 111 targets in 16 games when there were limited options. In 2017, he had 69 in 16 games. Sure, Allen was back, but had Tyrell "gained trust," IMO that would have been higher.

Now, Tyrell is on pace for 64 targets over 16 games, despite the fact that Rivers has 78 pass attempts in 2 games. Not statistically significant, but I will take the under on 64 targets for Tyrell for the full season.

:2cents: 

Edited by Just Win Baby
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Tyrell Williams: JWB covered this better than I could. Another angle is that he doesn't seem to have much redraft value (e.g., FBG top 200 going forward has him at WR60), and he doesn't seem likely to have more value in 2019-2021 - he's already in a pretty good situation, he's already 26 years old, he doesn't look to be improving.

I agree that Callaway, Lockett, and Taylor all have some upside, but so do the other guys in their tier. Meredith, Allison, and Dorsett have Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Chark is a size-speed prospect who was a good deep threat in college and went in the 2nd round, DJax is off to a ridiculous start this year, Zay Jones was a 2nd rounder last year and has made some plays this year in Buffalo's hapless offense, etc. I bought into the preseason hype on Taywan until he fell behind Sharpe on the depth chart so now he's down in this tier. Lockett has a great opportunity in Seattle with Baldwin out but so far he hasn't done much with it. Calloway was a dope MC, you didn't know? I mean... Callaway has 1 big play so far and is basically holding steady (though he got leapfrogged by a few guys with hot starts), although maybe he should be a few spots higher. These 3 feel more similar to the guys on this tier than to the guys a tier ahead of them.

On 9/18/2018 at 0:19 PM, oldmanhawkins said:

It looks like you didn't need to put much effort into the update because you already put so much effort in the offseason. Thank you for these!  

Thanks!

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The 28yrs old works against him but I'd need a significant add to move Thielen for any of the guys behind him in tier 4.  Feels like he has very high probability of 4yrs of top 15 if not top 10 in store, don't think you can say that about any of the others as of today.

4    17    Adam Thielen    MIN    28.1    (18)
4    18    T.Y. Hilton    IND    28.8    (17)
4    19    Corey Davis    TEN    23.7    (20)
4    20    D.J. Moore    CAR    21.4    (19)
4    21    Sammy Watkins    KC    25.3    (22)
4    22    Mike Williams    LAC    24.0    (28)
 

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On 9/3/2018 at 3:59 PM, ZWK said:

Finishing off my updated dynasty rankings with RBs headed into the season. Assuming PPR, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 5/8/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
...
4    14    Rashaad Penny    SEA    22.6    (14)
...
6    36    Aaron Jones    GB    23.7    (34)
...

First, thanks for sharing your rankings.

Now that we're 5 weeks into the season, how do we feel about these guys going forward?  Is there still hope for Penny to be in top-20 RB?  I'm thinking Aaron Jones has to be higher than this, but I'm not sure how much so.

 

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It is pretty amazing to see how well these held up for three months. Here is one man's take on who's rising and who's falling:

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    25.9    (1)
1    2    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    26.3    (2)
2    3    Michael Thomas    NO    25.5    (3)
2    4    Mike Evans    TB    25.1    (4)
2    5    Keenan Allen    LAC    26.4    (6)
2    6    Tyreek Hill    KC    24.6    (8)
3    7    Antonio Brown    PIT    30.2    (5)
3    8    JuJu Smith-Schuster    PIT    21.8    (15)
3    9    Davante Adams    GB    25.7    (7)
3    10    Jarvis Landry    CLE    25.8    (10) Falling
3    11    Julio Jones    ATL    29.6    (11)
3    12    Brandin Cooks    RAM    25.0    (12)
3    13    Stefon Diggs    MIN    24.8    (14)
3    14    Amari Cooper    OAK    24.3    (9)
4    15    Allen Robinson    CHI    25.1    (13) Falling
4    16    A.J. Green    CIN    30.1    (16) Falling
4    17    Adam Thielen    MIN    28.1    (18) Rising
4    18    T.Y. Hilton    IND    28.8    (17)
4    19    Corey Davis    TEN    23.7    (20)
4    20    D.J. Moore    CAR    21.4    (19)
4    21    Sammy Watkins    KC    25.3    (22)
4    22    Mike Williams    LAC    24.0    (28)
5    23    Doug Baldwin    SEA    30.0    (21) Falling
5    24    Courtland Sutton    DEN    22.9    (23)
5    25    Calvin Ridley    ATL    23.7    (24)
5    26    Golden Tate    DET    30.1    (26)
5    27    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    28.6    (29) Falling
5    28    Will Fuller    HOU    24.4    (30)
5    29    Kenny Golladay    DET    24.9    (44) Rising
6    30    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    30.7    (25) Falling
6    31    Marvin Jones    DET    28.5    (31)
6    32    Chris Godwin    TB    22.6    (38)
6    33    John Ross    CIN    22.8    (32) Falling
6    34    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    31.4    (56)
7    35    Randall Cobb    GB    28.1    (50) Falling
7    36    Josh Gordon    NE    27.4    (27) Rising
7    37    Cooper Kupp    RAM    25.3    (36) Rising
7    38    Robby Anderson    NYJ    25.4    (33)
7    39    Devin Funchess    CAR    24.3    (35)
7    40    Nelson Agholor    PHI    25.3    (58) Falling
7    41    Tre’Quan Smith    NO    22.7    (39)
7    42    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    35.0    (41)
7    43    Anthony Miller    CHI    23.9    (34)
7    44    DeVante Parker    MIA    25.7    (40)
7    45    Christian Kirk    ARI    21.8    (42)
7    46    Marquise Goodwin    SF    27.8    (45)
7    47    James Washington    PIT    22.5    (46)
7    48    Keelan Cole    JAX    25.4    (64)
7    49    Quincy Enunwa    NYJ    26.3    (90)
7    50    Julian Edelman    NE    32.3    (47)
7    51    Sterling Shepard    NYG    25.6    (37)
7    52    Kelvin Benjamin    BUF    27.6    (43) Falling
7    53    Dante Pettis    SF    22.9    (57)
7    54    Chris Hogan    NE    29.9    (48) Falling
7    55    John Brown    BAL    28.5    (66)
7    56    Kenny Stills    MIA    26.4    (65)
8    57    Michael Gallup    DAL    22.5    (49)
8    58    Robert Woods    RAM    26.4    (51) Rising
8    59    Dez Bryant        29.9    (52) Who?
8    60    Tyler Lockett    SEA    26.0    (59) Rising
8    61    Cameron Meredith    NO    26.0    (54)
8    62    DeSean Jackson    TB    31.7    (85)
8    63    Josh Doctson    WAS    25.8    (53)
8    64    Taywan Taylor    TEN    23.5    (55)
8    65    Geronimo Allison    GB    24.7    (78)
8    66    Jamison Crowder    WAS    25.3    (60)
8    67    D.J. Chark    JAX    22.0    (61)
8    68    Michael Crabtree    BAL    31.0    (62)
8    69    Phillip Dorsett    NE    25.7    (83)
8    70    Antonio Callaway    CLE    21.7    (67)
8    71    Zay Jones    BUF    23.5    (72)
8    72    Keke Coutee    HOU    21.7    (70) Rising
8    73    Dede Westbrook    JAX    24.8    (79)
8    74    Pierre Garcon    SF    32.1    (63)
8    75    Donte Moncrief    JAX    25.1    (68)
9    76    Allen Hurns    DAL    26.9    (69)
9    77    Marqise Lee    JAX    26.8    (71)
9    78    Tyler Boyd    CIN    24.8    (89)
9    79    Ted Ginn    NO    33.4    (88)
9    80    Ryan Grant    IND    27.7    (81)
9    81    Curtis Samuel    CAR    22.1    (73) Rising
9    82    Paul Richardson    WAS    26.4    (74)
9    83    Martavis Bryant    OAK    26.7    (122)
9    84    Tyrell Williams    LAC    26.6    (75)
9    85    Jordy Nelson    OAK    33.3    (76)
9    86    Rishard Matthews    TEN    28.9    (77)
10    87    Danny Amendola    MIA    32.8    (97)
10    88    Chad Williams    ARI    23.9    (80)
10    89    DaeSean Hamilton    DEN    23.5    (82) Rising
10    90    Terrelle Pryor    NYJ    29.2    (84)
10    91    Taylor Gabriel    CHI    27.6    (109) Rising
10    92    Laquon Treadwell    MIN    23.3    (86)
10    93    Jordan Lasley    BAL    21.8    (87)
10    94    Marquez Valdes-Scantling    GB    23.9    (91) Rising
10    95    Deon Cain    IND    22.1    (92)
10    96    Jordan Matthews        26.2    (93)
10    97    Mohamed Sanu    ATL    29.0    (95)
10    98    Cole Beasley    DAL    29.4    (96)
10    99    Albert Wilson    MIA    26.2    (110) Rising
10    100    Jermaine Kearse    NYJ    28.6    (98)
10    101    Willie Snead    BAL    25.9    (101)
11    102    Chris Conley    KC    25.9    (120)
11    103    Rashard Higgins    CLE    23.9    (125) Rising
11    104    Kevin White    CHI    26.2    (94)
11    105    Richie James    SF    23.0    unr
11    106    Chester Rogers    IND    24.7    (99)
11    107    Cordarrelle Patterson    NE    27.5    (100)
11    108    Jeremy Maclin        30.3    (102)
11    109    J'Mon Moore    GB    23.3    (103)
11    110    ArDarius Stewart    NYJ    24.8    (104)
11    111    Trent Taylor    SF    24.4    (105)
11    112    Brandon Marshall    SEA    34.4    (106)
11    113    Equanimeous St. Brown    GB    22.0    (107)
11    114    Torrey Smith    CAR    29.6    (108)
11    115    Brandon Zylstra    MIN    25.5    (111)
11    116    Josh Malone    CIN    22.5    (112)
11    117    Corey Coleman        24.2    (115)
11    118    Shelton Gibson    PHI    23.5    (116)
11    119    Bruce Ellington    HOU    27.1    (134)
11    120    Jarius Wright    CAR    28.8    unr
11    121    Mike Wallace    PHI    32.1    (114)
11    122    J.J. Nelson    ARI    26.4    (117)
11    123    Cody Latimer    NYG    25.9    (118)
11    124    Justin Watson    TB    23.5    (119)
11    125    Mack Hollins    PHI    25.0    (121)
11    126    Josh Reynolds    RAM    23.6    (123) Rising
11    127    Travis Benjamin    LAC    28.7    (124)
11    128    Tajae Sharpe    TEN    23.7    (126)
11    129    Terrance Williams    DAL    29.0    (127)
11    130    Jaron Brown    SEA    28.7    (128)
11    131    Andre Holmes    BUF    30.3    unr
11    132    Brandon LaFell    OAK    31.8    (157)

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It's tricky to find time for dynasty rankings during the season. Partly that's because I'm busier with my leagues and watching games, so it leaves less football time for rankings and analyses. And partly it's because I tend to update my dynasty rankings bit by bit - I'll look at my old rankings, move around some players that seem out of place, spend some time thinking or looking up stuff to figure out where to put players who seem hard to place. Then maybe a few days or weeks later I'll come back and do it again. It takes a few rounds of that before I'm happy with my rankings, and during the season things change too fast for me to keep up.

But I guess there's nothing stopping me from sharing the current state of what my rankings spreadsheet says. Here are those positional rankings (linked instead of posted here since these are less "official").

The top of the rankings are closer to my actual views than the bottom of the rankings, since I naturally spend more time there (plus I did just put in the effort last week to rank my top 24 overall players). And I've put more effort into some positions than others. Some of the places where they haven't been updated should be obvious based on a long string of players whose Prev is also all in a row.

Edited by ZWK
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16 hours ago, ZWK said:

It's tricky to find time for dynasty rankings during the season. Partly that's because I'm busier with my leagues and watching games, so it leaves less football time for rankings and analyses. And partly it's because I tend to update my dynasty rankings bit by bit - I'll look at my old rankings, move around some players that seem out of place, spend some time thinking or looking up stuff to figure out where to put players who seem hard to place. Then maybe a few days or weeks later I'll come back and do it again. It takes a few rounds of that before I'm happy with my rankings, and during the season things change too fast for me to keep up.

But I guess there's nothing stopping me from sharing the current state of what my rankings spreadsheet says. Here are those positional rankings (linked instead of posted here since these are less "official").

The top of the rankings are closer to my actual views than the bottom of the rankings, since I naturally spend more time there (plus I did just put in the effort last week to rank my top 24 overall players). And I've put more effort into some positions than others. Some of the places where they haven't been updated should be obvious based on a long string of players whose Prev is also all in a row.

James Conner is sandwiched between Rashaad Penny and Derrick Henry.

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Thanks for sharing! It’s a good barometer for whether I’m way off in how much I’ve moved guys up or down.

I think Boyd’s age may be wrong on your sheet (everything else I’ve seen lists him as having just turned 24)? I think I’d have him in the next tier up as a result but overall the placement seems reasonable. I’d also have a hard time trading Lockett or MVS for John Ross (though I’m buying him if he’s close to free).

As for Herndon, I’m an owner and generally ecstatic about him but would trade him for Njoku in a heartbeat. @voiceofunreason What am I missing? This may be nitpicky as I don’t think I’d trade him for anyone ranked below Njoku.

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18 hours ago, EthnicFury said:

As for Herndon, I’m an owner and generally ecstatic about him but would trade him for Njoku in a heartbeat. @voiceofunreason What am I missing? This may be nitpicky as I don’t think I’d trade him for anyone ranked below Njoku.

Wasn't directed at me, but as a Miami homer who has watched both of these guys closely since they played at the U, I prefer Herndon long-term.

Njoku is an amazing athlete and is in a better situation right now, but Herndon is the better football player. Herndon catches the ball better, and is better after the catch. Being on the Jets is not a plus, and his success is tied to Darnold, but he has a top-tier ceiling.

Because of the situation and draft capital, Njoku rightly carries more value, but I prefer Herndon.  Even better if I can also score a nice piece if I deal Njoku for him.

Edited by JackReacher
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1 hour ago, EthnicFury said:

Thanks for sharing! It’s a good barometer for whether I’m way off in how much I’ve moved guys up or down.

I think Boyd’s age may be wrong on your sheet (everything else I’ve seen lists him as having just turned 24)? I think I’d have him in the next tier up as a result but overall the placement seems reasonable. I’d also have a hard time trading Lockett or MVS for John Ross (though I’m buying him if he’s close to free).

As for Herndon, I’m an owner and generally ecstatic about him but would trade him for Njoku in a heartbeat. @voiceofunreason What am I missing? This may be nitpicky as I don’t think I’d trade him for anyone ranked below Njoku.

I’d value them closely. Njoku seems to drop a lot of balls though.

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13 hours ago, JackReacher said:

Wasn't directed at me, but as a Miami homer who has watched both of these guys closely since they played at the U, I prefer Herndon long-term.

Njoku is an amazing athlete and is in a better situation right now, but Herndon is the better football player. Herndon catches the ball better, and is better after the catch. Being on the Jets is not a plus, and his success is tied to Darnold, but he has a top-tier ceiling.

Because of the situation and draft capital, Njoku rightly carries more value, but I prefer Herndon.  Even better if I can score a nice piece along with him if I deal him for Njoku.

 

13 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

I’d value them closely. Njoku seems to drop a lot of balls though.

Thanks! I don’t watch a ton of college football (including the browns or jets) so I was mostly going off stats and media buzz. This kind of insight helps a lot!

 

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On 11/6/2018 at 11:34 AM, stuckinthemuck said:

It is pretty amazing to see how well these held up for three months. Here is one man's take on who's rising and who's falling:

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev

7    48    Keelan Cole    JAX    25.4    (64)
 

FALLING

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One interesting question: how high to put the young guys. I have Barkley, Mahomes, Howard, and Kittle all in the top tier at their position, with Barkley & Mahomes #1 at their position and Howard & Kittle in the top 4.

Barkley looks like a fairly obvious #1 overall pick in dynasty, with Gurley the only other contender. Barkley seemed to have ridiculous talent coming into the league, and that's what he has demonstrated on the field so far. He has elite fantasy production, and he is great as a receiver which is where RB fantasy value increasingly comes from. It feels weird to call a guy "proven" just 8 games into his NFL career, but he's about as close as you can get to that and he's still 21.

Lots of people have Mahomes as the #1 fantasy QB at this point. A big part of what makes it an easy call is that it's not clear who to put at #2.

At TE, Kelce & Ertz's sustained production still has them slightly ahead of the younger guys Howard & Kittle in my rankings but that could change by the end of the season if Howard & Kittle keep it up.

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13 hours ago, ZWK said:

One interesting question: how high to put the young guys. I have Barkley, Mahomes, Howard, and Kittle all in the top tier at their position, with Barkley & Mahomes #1 at their position and Howard & Kittle in the top 4.

Barkley looks like a fairly obvious #1 overall pick in dynasty, with Gurley the only other contender. Barkley seemed to have ridiculous talent coming into the league, and that's what he has demonstrated on the field so far. He has elite fantasy production, and he is great as a receiver which is where RB fantasy value increasingly comes from. It feels weird to call a guy "proven" just 8 games into his NFL career, but he's about as close as you can get to that and he's still 21.

Lots of people have Mahomes as the #1 fantasy QB at this point. A big part of what makes it an easy call is that it's not clear who to put at #2.

At TE, Kelce & Ertz's sustained production still has them slightly ahead of the younger guys Howard & Kittle in my rankings but that could change by the end of the season if Howard & Kittle keep it up.

I don't have a problem with any of those.

Barkley/Mahomes have pedigree, elite production, pass the eye test (swimmingly), and are incredibly young.  They are both easily #1 at their position for me.

I can't see any reason to put Howard/Kittle lower than #3/#4 in TE rankings.  They are both putting up seasons that would be runaway TE #1 seasons most years were it not for the insane seasons Kelce/Ertz are having this year.  Howard's efficiency numbers are utterly insane, he seems to have clearly moved ahead of Brate, and he's still only 23.

I think most are still going to have Kelce/Ertz above them now but like you said I think it will be a 4-way conversation in the offseason with Kelce going into his age 30 season next year.

 

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  • 3 months later...

It's time for another round of formulaic WR ratings. These are generated entirely by formula, and are not the rankings that I'd use to draft, but I find them useful to look at.

For most WRs, these are based on a formula that only takes into account the player's age and recent production. I am using 3 numbers - their 2018 VBD, their 2017 VBD, and their age - and historical data to estimate their remaining career VBD.

For young WRs, these can also be based on a formula that takes into account the player's draft position and and early-career production. This takes 3 numbers - their NFL draft pick, number of years in the league, and total career VBD so far - and uses historical data to estimate their remaining career VBD. I use this number only if it is higher than the age & production based number.

I have gone back to the historical data to update the formulas that I use to calculate these, and systematized things so that it should be easier for me to calculate more often. I have also changed the method that I use to calculate VBD since last time (it's now based on ppg and has a fuzzy baseline instead of a sharp cutoff), which has made all the VBD numbers larger.

Here are the top 100 WRs by formula, with age as of 9/1/19. I've also included some placeholder slots to show about where 2019 rookies will go, e.g. if a WR gets drafted with the 10th pick of the NFL draft then he'll go in the "[2019 pick 10]" spot.

Value  Player         Method   Age
617    DeAndre Hopkins    prod    27.2
609    Tyreek Hill    prod    25.5
560    Davante Adams    prod    26.7
540    JuJu Smith-Schuster    prod    22.8
527    Michael Thomas    prod    26.5
419    Antonio Brown    prod    31.1
403    Mike Evans    prod    26.0
401    Stefon Diggs    prod    25.8
383    Keenan Allen    prod    27.3
376    Adam Thielen    prod    29.0
358    Julio Jones    prod    30.6
328    Odell Beckham    prod    26.8
309    Brandin Cooks    prod    25.9
300    Robert Woods    prod    27.4
298    Cooper Kupp    draft    26.2
292    [2019 pick 10]    draft    
292    Calvin Ridley    draft    24.7
273    Jarvis Landry    prod    26.8
269    Corey Davis    draft    24.6
253    Tyler Boyd    prod    24.8
251    Mike Williams    draft    24.9
222    Amari Cooper    prod    25.2
216    D.J. Moore    draft    22.4
209    Kenny Golladay    draft    25.8
192    T.Y. Hilton    prod    29.8
183    Zay Jones    draft    24.4
179    Curtis Samuel    draft    23.1
166    Chris Godwin    draft    23.5
156    [2019 pick 30]    draft    
155    Tyler Lockett    prod    26.9
150    Will Fuller    prod    25.4
143    Dede Westbrook    draft    25.8
141    A.J. Green    prod    31.1
137    Christian Kirk    draft    22.8
132    Alshon Jeffery    prod    29.5
120    Sterling Shepard    prod    26.6
119    Robby Anderson    prod    26.3
112    Marvin Jones    prod    29.5
104    John Ross    draft    23.8
93    Adam Humphries    prod    26.2
92    Courtland Sutton    draft    23.9
91    Nelson Agholor    prod    26.3
90    Golden Tate    prod    31.1
89    Emmanuel Sanders    prod    32.4
87    Dante Pettis    draft    23.9
86    [2019 pick 60]    draft    
85    Allen Robinson    prod    26.0
85    Albert Wilson    prod    27.1
84    Keke Coutee    draft    22.6
79    Anthony Miller    draft    24.9
76    Sammy Watkins    prod    26.2
72    James Washington    draft    23.4
72    DJ Chark    draft    22.9
70    Geronimo Allison    prod    25.6
67    [2019 pick 90]    draft    
67    Corey Coleman    draft    25.2
67    Doug Baldwin    prod    30.9
65    Michael Gallup    draft    23.5
63    Josh Doctson    draft    26.7
62    Laquon Treadwell    draft    24.2
61    Tre'Quan Smith    draft    23.6
59    Jamison Crowder    prod    26.2
58    Julian Edelman    prod    33.3
58    Devin Funchess    prod    25.3
57    Josh Gordon    prod    28.4
56    Mohamed Sanu    prod    30.0
55    Rashard Higgins    prod    24.9
47    Antonio Callaway    draft    22.6
40    Larry Fitzgerald    prod    36.0
39    Demaryius Thomas    prod    31.7
37    DaeSean Hamilton    draft    24.5
36    DeVante Parker    prod    26.6
36    Kenny Stills    prod    27.4
32    [2019 pick 120]    draft    
31    Marqise Lee    prod    27.8
31    Taywan Taylor    draft    24.5
31    Randall Cobb    prod    29.0
31    Paul Richardson    prod    27.4
30    ArDarius Stewart    draft    25.7
29    Carlos Henderson    draft    24.7
28    Allen Hurns    prod    27.8
27    Martavis Bryant    prod    27.7
26    Braxton Miller    draft    26.8
26    Marquise Goodwin    prod    28.8
25    Taylor Gabriel    prod    28.6
25    Leonte Carroo    draft    25.6
25    Chad Williams    draft    24.9
24    Kelvin Benjamin    prod    28.6
23    Jermaine Kearse    prod    29.6
21    Jaleel Scott    draft    24.5
21    Rishard Matthews    prod    29.9
21    DeSean Jackson    prod    32.7
21    J'Mon Moore    draft    24.3
20    Amara Darboh    draft    25.6
18    Dez Bryant    prod    30.8
16    Chris Hogan    prod    30.9
15    Chris Moore    draft    26.2
15    Justin Watson    draft    24.4
14    Josh Reynolds    draft    24.5
14    Mack Hollins    draft    26.0
13    Malcolm Mitchell    draft    27.1
13    [2019 pick 150]    draft    
12    Ricardo Louis    draft    25.4
12    John Brown    prod    29.4
11    Michael Crabtree    prod    32.0
11    Pharoh Cooper    draft    24.5

This formula is often too harsh on guys who missed some time in 2017 or 2018 (like Beckham, Robinson, Edelman, Lee, Goodwin), and isn't aware of the news on guys like Josh Gordon & Carlos Henderson. There are also plenty of other places where it disagrees with conventional wisdom (Tyler Boyd, Mike Williams, AJ Green, etc.), and in many of those places it's not obvious to me that it's wrong.

I'll try to put together my actual WR rankings within the next couple weeks.

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6 hours ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Do you mind unpacking this?  You mean it changes year-to-year?  Or something else?

For each season I take 3 different baselines - last starter, one that's higher than that, and one that's lower than that - and then for each WR I average together the VBD that he gets according to each of the baselines. (VBD according to a particular baseline is ppg minus baseline ppg, times games played, with a floor of zero).

I think that this better reflects how much value a player has to your fantasy team (WR40 has some use even though he's below the last starter baseline, WR32 won't necessarily crack your lineup), and my guess is that it helps with the projection formulas although I haven't tested that empirically (a rookie WR who finished as WR44 is more promising than one who finished as WR88, even if they both have 0 VBD according to typical last-starter scoring).

I'm currently using WR24, WR36, and WR48 as the baselines (the ppg version, where WR36 means that him & the guys ahead of him played in 36x17 games - enough to fill all 36 starting slots each week). Ideally it would be a smooth curve instead of 3 baselines, but 3 baselines gives a pretty close approximation of a curve.

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6 hours ago, Slapdash said:

Curtis Samuel seems a bit high.  He has been better than expected, but you would expect some reduction in the TD pace

Agreed. The formula sees him, Zay Jones, and Chris Godwin as pretty similar prospects. It only knows their VBD (Samuel's was slightly below Godwin's - they had the same ppg but Samuel missed 4 games - and Jones had the lowest) and draft pick (Samuel was a few picks after Jones and more than a full round ahead of Godwin).

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11 hours ago, ZWK said:

This formula is often too harsh on guys who missed some time in 2017 or 2018 (like Beckham, Robinson, Edelman, Lee, Goodwin), and isn't aware of the news on guys like Josh Gordon & Carlos Henderson. There are also plenty of other places where it disagrees with conventional wisdom (Tyler Boyd, Mike Williams, AJ Green, etc.), and in many of those places it's not obvious to me that it's wrong.

I'll try to put together my actual WR rankings within the next couple weeks.

It’s gotta be that AJG missed half of 2018, doesn’t it?  In my 0.5PPR, he was WR8 in 2017 and WR9 (WR12 ppg) in ‘18 before he got hurt. 

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23 minutes ago, Andrew74 said:

It’s gotta be that AJG missed half of 2018, doesn’t it?  In my 0.5PPR, he was WR8 in 2017 and WR9 (WR12 ppg) in ‘18 before he got hurt. 

Green turns 31 years old this year, he missed half the season in 2018, and he had a down year in 2017. You have to go all the way back to 2015 to find a season when he was better than a borderline WR1/WR2 in terms of VBD (ppg minus baseline ppg, times games played). I agree that he should be at least somewhat higher than this formula puts him but I'm not sure how much.

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  • ZWK changed the title to ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)

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