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ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)


ZWK

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On 1/19/2020 at 4:10 AM, -OZ- said:
On 1/5/2020 at 4:27 PM, ZWK said:

6    24    Jonnu Smith    TEN    25.0    (42)

I get that it's partly hometown bias, but Jonnu looks really low. I'd have him up there with the Alabama TEs Irv and Howard (although OJ was a huge disappointment).  What don't you like?  You did move him up, so maybe he's gaining traction?

Jonnu Smith just hasn't been producing very much. He has been in the NFL for 3 years, and has 0 VBD to show for it (even by my formula had 21 TEs with positive VBD this year because it uses ppg and a fuzzy baseline).

Playing behind Delanie Walker could hurt his numbers, but Walker was out for almost all of 2018 and the majority of 2019.

In 2017 & 2018 it wasn't just about lack of volume - Smith's efficiency numbers and PFF grade were also mediocre to bad. In 2019 he finally had pretty good efficiency numbers (YPT, DVOA, PFF grade), but he's still well behind the pace of what good TEs usually show in their first 3 seasons.

The best fantasy TEs since 1997 who had 0 VBD through 3 seasons are Delanie Walker, Martellus Bennett, Chad Lewis, Jermaine Wiggins, Darren Waller, and Gary Barnidge. Pretty rare, especially when you aren't stuck behind a Pro Bowler. And most great fantasy TEs were already putting up big numbers within their first 3 seasons, although it's not uncommon for them to just be low-end fantasy starters at that point (e.g., Kelce, Ertz, Clark, Olsen, V Davis).

My formulaic TE projections have Jonnu unranked, because by year 3 they're looking for fantasy production (whereas through 2 seasons they're also looking for signs of promise like draft pick and good receiving efficiency). My subjective rankings have him at 24 (and up to 23 since I posted), giving him credit for those efficiency numbers and for being a TE2 with some opportunity & some hype (and borderline startable once Walker went out).

I can rerun my TE projections formula with some generous adjustments to give him credit for those things. I just did that, where:

* I credited him with 4.5 VBD for this year rather than 0, which is what he'd get based on the 8.1 ppg over 13 games that he produced weeks 7-20 without Delanie Walker
* I pretended that 2019 was just his 2nd season rather than his 3rd so that my formula would give him credit for his efficiency numbers as well (in other words, I treated him as pick 100 of the 2018 draft instead of the 2017 draft)

With those adjustments, my formula projected him for 62 career VBD, which put him at TE20 between Will Dissly and Foster Moreau.

That's pretty close to where I had him in my subjective rankings.

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

Jonnu Smith just hasn't been producing very much. He has been in the NFL for 3 years, and has 0 VBD to show for it (even by my formula had 21 TEs with positive VBD this year because it uses ppg and a fuzzy baseline).

Playing behind Delanie Walker could hurt his numbers, but Walker was out for almost all of 2018 and the majority of 2019.

In 2017 & 2018 it wasn't just about lack of volume - Smith's efficiency numbers and PFF grade were also mediocre to bad. In 2019 he finally had pretty good efficiency numbers (YPT, DVOA, PFF grade), but he's still well behind the pace of what good TEs usually show in their first 3 seasons.

The best fantasy TEs since 1997 who had 0 VBD through 3 seasons are Delanie Walker, Martellus Bennett, Chad Lewis, Jermaine Wiggins, Darren Waller, and Gary Barnidge. Pretty rare, especially when you aren't stuck behind a Pro Bowler. And most great fantasy TEs were already putting up big numbers within their first 3 seasons, although it's not uncommon for them to just be low-end fantasy starters at that point (e.g., Kelce, Ertz, Clark, Olsen, V Davis).

My formulaic TE projections have Jonnu unranked, because by year 3 they're looking for fantasy production (whereas through 2 seasons they're also looking for signs of promise like draft pick and good receiving efficiency). My subjective rankings have him at 24 (and up to 23 since I posted), giving him credit for those efficiency numbers and for being a TE2 with some opportunity & some hype (and borderline startable once Walker went out).

I can rerun my TE projections formula with some generous adjustments to give him credit for those things. I just did that, where:

* I credited him with 4.5 VBD for this year rather than 0, which is what he'd get based on the 8.1 ppg over 13 games that he produced weeks 7-20 without Delanie Walker
* I pretended that 2019 was just his 2nd season rather than his 3rd so that my formula would give him credit for his efficiency numbers as well (in other words, I treated him as pick 100 of the 2018 draft instead of the 2017 draft)

With those adjustments, my formula projected him for 62 career VBD, which put him at TE20 between Will Dissly and Foster Moreau.

That's pretty close to where I had him in my subjective rankings.

Thanks. 

I do like your methodology. Just happen to disagree with the result here - but I'll readily admit my bias.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Offseason RB rankings. PPR, start 2 RB, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/20. Prev from 5/2/19.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Christian McCaffrey    CAR    24.2    (2)
1    2    Saquon Barkley    NYG    23.6    (1)
2    3    Alvin Kamara    NO    25.1    (3)
2    4    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    25.1    (4)
3    5    Nick Chubb    CLE    24.7    (9)
3    6    Dalvin Cook    MIN    25.1    (11)
3    7    Joe Mixon    CIN    24.1    (7)
4    8    Josh Jacobs    LV    22.6    (15)
4    9    Derrick Henry    FA (TEN)    26.1    (17)
4    10    Aaron Jones    GB    25.7    (18)
5    11    Austin Ekeler    LAC    25.3    (40)
5    12    Chris Carson    SEA    26.0    (21)
5    13    Leonard Fournette    JAX    25.6    (12)
5    14    Miles Sanders    PHI    23.3    (24)
5    15    Melvin Gordon    FA (LAC)    27.4    (5)
5    16    Todd Gurley    RAM    26.1    (6)
5    17    LeVeon Bell    NYJ    28.5    (8)
5    18    Kareem Hunt    CLE    25.1    (16)
6    19    Kenyan Drake    FA (ARI)    26.6    (37)
6    20    Kerryon Johnson    DET    23.2    (13)
6    21    James Conner    PIT    25.3    (14)
6    22    Devin Singletary    BUF    23.0    (49)
6    23    Marlon Mack    IND    24.5    (22)
6    24    Phillip Lindsay    DEN    26.1    (27)
6    25    David Montgomery    CHI    23.2    (25)
7    26    Derrius Guice    WAS    23.2    (23)
7    27    Raheem Mostert    SF    28.4    (98)
7    28    Ronald Jones II    TB    23.1    (39)
7    29    Mark Ingram    BAL    30.7    (33)
7    30    David Johnson    ARI    28.7    (10)
7    31    Darrell Henderson    LAR    23.0    (28)
7    32    Tarik Cohen    CHI    25.1    (30)
7    33    Damien Williams    KC    28.4    (19)
7    34    James White    NE    28.6    (31)
7    35    Rashaad Penny    SEA    24.6    (26)
7    36    Devonta Freeman    ATL    28.5    (29)
7    37    Sony Michel    NE    25.5    (20)
8    38    Damien Harris    NE    23.6    (32)
8    39    Tony Pollard    DAL    23.3    (79)
8    40    Tevin Coleman    SF    27.4    (36)
8    41    Duke Johnson    HOU    26.9    (47)
8    42    Matt Breida    SF    25.5    (41)
8    43    Lamar Miller    FA (HOU)    29.4    (34)
8    44    Royce Freeman    DEN    24.5    (42)
8    45    Jamaal Williams    GB    25.4    (64)
8    46    Alexander Mattison    MIN    22.2    (50)
8    47    Nyheim Hines    IND    23.8    (38)
8    48    Boston Scott    PHI    25.3    (114)
8    49    Bryce Love    WAS    23.2    (44)
8    50    Justice Hill    BAL    22.8    (43)
8    51    Latavius Murray    NO    29.5    (46)
8    52    Benny Snell    PIT    22.5    (65)
8    53    Jordan Howard    FA (PHI)    25.8    (52)
8    54    DeAndre Washington    FA (LV)    27.5    (104)
8    55    Carlos Hyde    FA (HOU)    29.9    (58)
9    56    Jaylen Samuels    PIT    24.1    (60)
9    57    Jerick McKinnon    SF    28.3    (35)
9    58    Chase Edmonds    ARI    24.4    (85)
9    59    Adrian Peterson    WAS    35.4    (77)
9    60    Darwin Thompson    KAN    23.6    (72)
9    61    Chris Thompson    WAS    29.9    (57)
9    62    Jalen Richard    LV    26.9    (48)
9    63    Gus Edwards    BAL    25.4    (63)
9    64    Malcolm Brown    RAM    27.3    (61)
9    65    Ryquell Armstead    JAX    23.8    (66)
9    66    Ito Smith    ATL    25.0    (69)
9    67    Justin Jackson    LAC    25.4    (106)
10    68    Rodney Anderson    CIN    24.0    (111)
10    69    Mike Boone    MIN    25.2    unr
10    70    Jonathan Williams    IND    26.6    (125)
10    71    Rex Burkhead    NE    30.2    (90)
10    72    Reggie Bonnafon    CAR    24.7    unr
10    73    Wayne Gallman    NYG    25.9    (127)
10    74    Peyton Barber    TB    26.5    (45)
10    75    Marshawn Lynch        34.4    (136)
10    76    Bo Scarbrough    DET    23.9    unr
10    77    Darrel Williams    KC    25.4    (76)
10    78    J.D. McKissic    DET    27.0    (122)
10    79    Qadree Ollison    ATL    23.8    (74)
10    80    Jeffery Wilson    SF    24.8    unr
10    81    Jordan Wilkins    IND    26.1    (88)
10    82    Isaiah Crowell    FA (LV)    27.6    (82)
10    83    Mike Davis        27.5    (75)
10    84    Dion Lewis    TEN    29.9    (55)
10    85    Trayveon Williams    CIN    22.9    (109)
10    86    Dare Ogunbowale    TB    26.3    unr
10    87    Giovani Bernard    CIN    28.8    (56)
10    88    Ty Montgomery    NYJ    27.6    (94)
11    89    Corey Clement    PHI    25.8    (83)
11    90    Patrick Laird    MIA    25.0    unr
11    91    LeSean McCoy    KC    32.1    (53)
11    92    Jay Ajayi        27.2    (54)
11    93    Theo Riddick        29.3    (68)
11    94    Frank Gore    FA (BUF)    37.3    (81)
11    95    Travis Homer    SEA    22.1    (134)
11    96    Dontrell Hilliard    CLE    25.5    unr
11    97    Ty Johnson    DET    23.0    (93)
11    98    C.J. Anderson        29.6    (51)
11    99    C.J. Prosise        26.3    (120)
11    100    T.J. Yeldon        26.9    (62)
11    101    Myles Gaskin    MIA    23.5    (108)
11    102    Brian Hill    ATL    24.8    (139)
11    103    Josh Adams    PHI    23.8    (95)
11    104    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    26.6    (80)
11    105    Kalen Ballage    MIA    24.7    (70)
11    106    Dexter Williams    GB    23.7    (110)
11    107    Kerrith Whyte    PIT    23.8    (99)
11    108    Kenneth Dixon        26.6    (67)
11    109    Jordan Scarlett    CAR    24.6    (112)

It feels like I could keep tinkering with these forever, but I'll get something posted now. I keep feeling dissatisfied with my rankings within tiers 5 (RB11-18) and 7 (RB26-37), no matter how I reshuffle them. It might just mean that those guys are bunched pretty close together.

There aren't huge differences between my rankings and others that I've seen. I'm somewhat higher on Chris Carson, Raheem Mostert, Lamar Miller, and Damien Harris. And I'm lower on David Montgomery, Sony Michel, Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, Ito Smith, and Justice Hill.

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On 1/21/2020 at 5:58 PM, -OZ- said:

Thanks. 

I do like your methodology. Just happen to disagree with the result here - but I'll readily admit my bias.

I love Jonnu Smith and I am hoping he ends up being more productive for fantasy in years ahead, but the fact remains that he hasn't delivered yet.

For the guys ZWK compares him to as far as being productive after their 1st 3 seasons in the league, Walker seems the closest comparison as he had Vernon Davis ahead of him for his first few seasons and didn't get enough opportunity until he changed teams. 

I could see Jonnu being a 4th year break out I guess. No reason to project him higher than he has been though really.

The main thing I have always liked about Jonnu is his versatility. His blocking ability may be working against him in some ways compared to a TE whos only plus ability is as a receiver.

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Regarding Jonnu.

I own him in an FFPC league, so TE premium, and can't even get a third round rookie pick for him. I even resorted to taking to league message board asking for a third this year or next and still nothing.

He's probably a better NFL player then fantasy player because he can block well. Most TE's who actually get a shot to play, who are not buried behind someone, take significant steps in year two or they usually don't. He's had more then his fair share of chances. As ZWK pointed out Delanie missed all but one game of 2018 and this year played in just 7 games averaging 28 snaps and 4.4 targets a game. So Delanie has barely been an obstacle for the past two seasons.  Over the past two seasons Jonnu has averaged 47.4 snaps a game but is getting a paltry 2.7 targets a game. In order for him to be remotely trustworthy or useful in fantasy this target per game number needs to almost double and I see no reason for that kind of optimism and even if did double he's probably a weak TE1 at best.

Counting playoffs over the last two seasons he's had basically a season and half of games were Delanie did not take a snap. 24 games.  75 targets, 54 catches, 602 yards and 7 TD's.  Again that might be low end TE1 stats for a whole season, that's 1.5 seasons.  You can try and blame it on Mariotta but he's got 12 full games with no Delanie and Tannehill as his QB.  47/35/356/4 in those 12 games and what's worse is he goose egged 1/4th of those games despite getting 50+ snaps. Out of everything I could say negative about the guy in fantasy this is the one thing that bothers me the most.

All in all just seems like a guy who if things go right, might hit around the high 40/low 50 catch mark. Replacement level, low value player to me who it looks like I'll be flat cutting in a TE premium league.

Now if you like him  and want to think positive maybe he's just a slow learner and will continue to improve. Just not seeing it myself,  looks like a solid NFL starting TE to me, a backup fantasy TE with a floor so low he goose egged 25% of his games with his current QB.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Regarding Jonnu.

I own him in an FFPC league, so TE premium, and can't even get a third round rookie pick for him. I even resorted to taking to league message board asking for a third this year or next and still nothing.

He's probably a better NFL player then fantasy player because he can block well. Most TE's who actually get a shot to play, who are not buried behind someone, take significant steps in year two or they usually don't. He's had more then his fair share of chances. As ZWK pointed out Delanie missed all but one game of 2018 and this year played in just 7 games averaging 28 snaps and 4.4 targets a game. So Delanie has barely been an obstacle for the past two seasons.  Over the past two seasons Jonnu has averaged 47.4 snaps a game but is getting a paltry 2.7 targets a game. In order for him to be remotely trustworthy or useful in fantasy this target per game number needs to almost double and I see no reason for that kind of optimism and even if did double he's probably a weak TE1 at best.

Counting playoffs over the last two seasons he's had basically a season and half of games were Delanie did not take a snap. 24 games.  75 targets, 54 catches, 602 yards and 7 TD's.  Again that might be low end TE1 stats for a whole season, that's 1.5 seasons.  You can try and blame it on Mariotta but he's got 12 full games with no Delanie and Tannehill as his QB.  47/35/356/4 in those 12 games and what's worse is he goose egged 1/4th of those games despite getting 50+ snaps. Out of everything I could say negative about the guy in fantasy this is the one thing that bothers me the most.

All in all just seems like a guy who if things go right, might hit around the high 40/low 50 catch mark. Replacement level, low value player to me who it looks like I'll be flat cutting in a TE premium league.

Now if you like him  and want to think positive maybe he's just a slow learner and will continue to improve. Just not seeing it myself,  looks like a solid NFL starting TE to me, a backup fantasy TE with a floor so low he goose egged 25% of his games with his current QB.

I'll agree that he's probably better for the Titans than your FF team. 

Fwiw, in my ongoing dynasty auction he went for just a little less than Ian Thomas and Mostert; a bit more than the 2.02 (16 teams) (not by me)

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16 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I'll agree that he's probably better for the Titans than your FF team. 

Fwiw, in my ongoing dynasty auction he went for just a little less than Ian Thomas and Mostert; a bit more than the 2.02 (16 teams) (not by me)

He does have people who like him so can't say I'm surprised. Want to say the one redraft I've done this year, FFPC Best Ball, he went in like round 8 or 9. I had another league, again FFPC, where someone traded Devante Parker for Jonnu and 3.1.  I'm honestly surprised I can't get a third for him but on the other hand I can't say I blame people, as  I described.

But funny to me that the league I referenced I got to cut him if I can't get a decent trade offer I am carrying Ian Thomas and once Olsen left I never gave not keeping Thomas any consideration.

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55 minutes ago, menobrown said:

He does have people who like him so can't say I'm surprised. Want to say the one redraft I've done this year, FFPC Best Ball, he went in like round 8 or 9. I had another league, again FFPC, where someone traded Devante Parker for Jonnu and 3.1.  I'm honestly surprised I can't get a third for him but on the other hand I can't say I blame people, as  I described.

But funny to me that the league I referenced I got to cut him if I can't get a decent trade offer I am carrying Ian Thomas and once Olsen left I never gave not keeping Thomas any consideration.

In my experience it is just plain hard to sell a TE.

The dynamics of cutting to 16 players completely squeezes out guys who have unrealized potential.

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5 hours ago, ZWK said:

Offseason RB rankings. PPR, start 2 RB, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/20. Prev from 5/2/19.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Christian McCaffrey    CAR    24.2    (2)
1    2    Saquon Barkley    NYG    23.6    (1)
2    3    Alvin Kamara    NO    25.1    (3)
2    4    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    25.1    (4)
3    5    Nick Chubb    CLE    24.7    (9)
3    6    Dalvin Cook    MIN    25.1    (11)
3    7    Joe Mixon    CIN    24.1    (7)
4    8    Josh Jacobs    LV    22.6    (15)
4    9    Derrick Henry    FA (TEN)    26.1    (17)
4    10    Aaron Jones    GB    25.7    (18)
5    11    Austin Ekeler    LAC    25.3    (40)
5    12    Chris Carson    SEA    26.0    (21)

I haven't read the entire thread, so forgive me.  I am a redraft guy.  Does your formula allow you to rank for current year only?

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14 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I haven't read the entire thread, so forgive me.  I am a redraft guy.  Does your formula allow you to rank for current year only?

These are my opinions rather than a formula.

You can get early 2020 redraft rankings from Fantasy Pros here or here.

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1 minute ago, ZWK said:

These are my opinions rather than a formula.

You can get early 2020 redraft rankings from Fantasy Pros here or here.

Yes, i have visited and already done some mocks.  I was simply wondering if you based your rankings on a formula of some sort, and if that formula could be broken down to a year by year rank?

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34 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Ekeler has to drop a lot with Rivers leaving. His receiving numbers could take a nose dive. 

A lot is in play to determine Ekeler's value.  Who will QB the Bolts?  Will Gordon stay?  What about Hunter Henry?

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Last year Ekeler was RB5 in fantasy production, so I already have him discounted pretty far below that. He's ranked about where he would be if you expected his future production to be about halfway in between his 2018 and his 2019.

And his success wasn't just about getting peppered with targets - he has been a really good receiving back, for his whole NFL career. That comes through in all his stats (YPT, receiving DVOA, PFF grade).

There is a lot of uncertainty for him. Who plays QB this year, whether Gordon comes back (or gets replaced by someone who will get a big workload), whether the Chargers find a 3rd WR. And the following year he hits free agency, and then maybe Andy Reid brings him to KC to be the next Westbrook/McCoy or maybe he goes to a team that doesn't know what to do with him. So there's uncertainty both upwards and downwards.

And there's also plenty of uncertainty for other guys in his tier. Does Chris Carson remain the workhorse? Is he the kind of back that can keep it up for a long career or more of a Rudi Johnson type? Does Fournette keep getting heavy usage in the passing game? Is he mainly coasting on draft capital and due for a reality check once his rookie contract runs out? Were the flashes of talent that Miles Sanders showed signs of what's to come, or is his lousy PFF grade and mediocre rushing DVOA more representative of who he is? Is Philly going to keep using a committee backfield?

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7 hours ago, TheWinz said:
8 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Ekeler has to drop a lot with Rivers leaving. His receiving numbers could take a nose dive. 

A lot is in play to determine Ekeler's value.  Who will QB the Bolts?  Will Gordon stay?  What about Hunter Henry?

And Ekeler himself is a RFA. I assume the Chargers will retain him for 2020, but it is theoretically possible he could be elsewhere. For example, suppose they offer him a second round tender; could another team be willing to pony up and sign him to a contract the Chargers will not match? Or will the Chargers put a first round tender on him and pay him $4.7M this year?

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Why are you lower on Miles Sanders?  He's basically proved a floor as a rookie as a pass catcher.  I find that an easier projection going forward than Josh Jacobs proving his floor as a rusher, yet pass catches get more points.  Just for comparison's sake between yours and my rankings, we basically have Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders flipped around.  Miles Sanders went 13.79 PPG while Jacobs went 12.10 PPG.  

I'd also move Mack up by about 10 spots.  Seems awfully low for a 25 year old where the chatter is to bring a vet QB in.  Rivers would be an awesome fit for him, but that's pure speculation.  

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33 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I'd also move Mack up by about 10 spots.  Seems awfully low for a 25 year old where the chatter is to bring a vet QB in.  Rivers would be an awesome fit for him, but that's pure speculation. 

Agree here for sure.  And he's actually still 23, doesn't turn 24 for a couple weeks.  Imagine if Rivers goes there?  He loves throwing to his running backs more than anybody.  I could see Mack getting up to that 40+ reception mark.

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5 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Why are you lower on Miles Sanders?  He's basically proved a floor as a rookie as a pass catcher.  I find that an easier projection going forward than Josh Jacobs proving his floor as a rusher, yet pass catches get more points.  Just for comparison's sake between yours and my rankings, we basically have Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders flipped around.  Miles Sanders went 13.79 PPG while Jacobs went 12.10 PPG.  

I'd also move Mack up by about 10 spots.  Seems awfully low for a 25 year old where the chatter is to bring a vet QB in.  Rivers would be an awesome fit for him, but that's pure speculation.  

Interesting to see these criticisms paired.

Mack is as low as he is because he's an awful receiver. He had 14 receptions this year, 1 per game. His career high season through 3 years is 21 receptions, 1.5 per game. He has awful YPT, receiving DVOA, PFF receiving grade. He was a low-end fantasy RB2 this year despite his strong rushing numbers because of his lack of receiving production. He has 75 career VBD so far (by my calculation), basically the same as fellow 2017 4th round pick Tarik Cohen.

With Jacobs, the Raiders brought him in to be the man, drafted him in the first round, gave him a big workload, and he did really well with it. PFF had him as one of the top RBs in the league. It seems like we have a lot of evidence that he's a good RB and that he'll get at least a pretty big role. You're right to point to receiving as the biggest concern, but there's still a fair amount of uncertainty there. He did ok with the targets he got.

With Sanders there's a lot more uncertainty about how good he is on the whole and how big a role he'll have going forward. Drafted a round later, played behind Jordan Howard for much of the year, had unimpressive rushing stats according to DVOA and PFF grade. His receiving is his biggest strength so far and it's why I have him as high as I do (rather than down near Singletary & Montgomery). But one season of good receiving production is not enough to establish a proven floor, he'll have to be good enough to stay on the field and get those targets, and other guys like Boston Scott could eat into his targets.

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37 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Interesting to see these criticisms paired.

Mack is as low as he is because he's an awful receiver. He had 14 receptions this year, 1 per game. His career high season through 3 years is 21 receptions, 1.5 per game. He has awful YPT, receiving DVOA, PFF receiving grade. He was a low-end fantasy RB2 this year despite his strong rushing numbers because of his lack of receiving production. He has 75 career VBD so far (by my calculation), basically the same as fellow 2017 4th round pick Tarik Cohen.

With Jacobs, the Raiders brought him in to be the man, drafted him in the first round, gave him a big workload, and he did really well with it. PFF had him as one of the top RBs in the league. It seems like we have a lot of evidence that he's a good RB and that he'll get at least a pretty big role. You're right to point to receiving as the biggest concern, but there's still a fair amount of uncertainty there. He did ok with the targets he got.

With Sanders there's a lot more uncertainty about how good he is on the whole and how big a role he'll have going forward. Drafted a round later, played behind Jordan Howard for much of the year, had unimpressive rushing stats according to DVOA and PFF grade. His receiving is his biggest strength so far and it's why I have him as high as I do (rather than down near Singletary & Montgomery). But one season of good receiving production is not enough to establish a proven floor, he'll have to be good enough to stay on the field and get those targets, and other guys like Boston Scott could eat into his targets.

Any insight as to whether this improved for Sanders from the beginning to the end of the season? He sure looked good later on. Not sure if the data support that or not.

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

Any insight as to whether this improved for Sanders from the beginning to the end of the season? He sure looked good later on. Not sure if the data support that or not.

I checked Sanders' PFF grades game by game. He was definitely better after the first 7 games, but his rushing grades still weren't good.

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11 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I'd also move Mack up by about 10 spots.  Seems awfully low for a 25 year old where the chatter is to bring a vet QB in.  Rivers would be an awesome fit for him, but that's pure speculation.  

Mack's age isn't that relevant because it's likely that his ability is what will end his fantasy usefulness, not his age.

On top of that these guys that don't catch are such great sells any time you can sell them.  The fantasy community turns on them SO fast.

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Mack was such a good pass catcher in college, I doubt it's because he's not good there and more a play calling/situation type of deal that has limited that ability.  That's just a guess though, but it would be interesting to dive into that and see.  Hines is behind him who is a special pass catcher doesn't exactly help either.  

Guess I'm still hopeful he finds a workhose role instead of just a rusher.  I think his age contributes to that being possible.  FA 2021.  

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I'm surprised that Mack is the guy on that tier that I'm getting pushback on. Conner was a RB1 in 2018 and again through the first half of 2019 before getting injured, missing some games, and struggling in the few games that he played. Kenyan Drake won some championships, going on a tear after he joined Arizona. He may or may not be back in Arizona but at least he won't be back in Miami. David Montgomery was an early first round rookie pick just a year ago and quickly won the lead RB role; he didn't have that great a rookie year but the Bears' offense left something to be desired. Singletary was drafted the pick after Montgomery in the NFL draft, was initially not highly regarded by the fantasy community, but had the second best rookie season by any RB last year and earned a big workload by the end of the season.

All of those guys have more upside than Mack, I think (though some also have more risk or age).

I looked back at some numbers & scouting reports on Mack coming into the league and they weren't exactly glowing about his receiving (although they also didn't suggest that he'd be as awful as he has been). He has now spent as long in Indianapolis as he did in South Florida, so I wouldn't put much weight on his college stuff. And his receiving with the Colts hasn't even risen to the level of his teammates Frank Gore, Jordan Wilkins, and Jonathan Williams (even setting aside Nyheim Hines), so I don't have much optimism for his receiving (beyond a little regression towards the mean).

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  • 4 weeks later...

Initial reactions on some FA/trade moves.

Moving down

WR3-->WR6 DeAndre Hopkins ARI - everyone's assuming that it's just a BOB blunder, but being traded for a 2nd rounder ought to raise at least a bit of concern about the player

Moving up

RB19-->RB16 Kenyan Drake ARI? - Arizona is a great place to be for him, and his odds of staying put have gone up
TE19-->TE11 Hayden Hurst ATL - I was higher than most on him based on potential talent, and now he gets an ideal opportunity

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21 hours ago, ZWK said:

Initial reactions on some FA/trade moves.

Moving down

WR3-->WR6 DeAndre Hopkins ARI - everyone's assuming that it's just a BOB blunder, but being traded for a 2nd rounder ought to raise at least a bit of concern about the player

Moving up

RB19-->RB16 Kenyan Drake ARI? - Arizona is a great place to be for him, and his odds of staying put have gone up
TE19-->TE11 Hayden Hurst ATL - I was higher than most on him based on potential talent, and now he gets an ideal opportunity

I agree with everything, except the reasoning behind the Hopkins downgrade. We’ve seen Hopkins for a while now, and most experts don’t see many weaknesses in his game. He’s a pure stud of a WR.

I could see downgrading him because of the unknown in AZ, but I don’t agree the trade may mean there’s a problem with him as a WR.

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Well, I guess the good news here is that it shouldn't be too hard to trade Hopkins for those who agree with my take.

I'm pretty confident of this one. Generally it's a bad sign about a player when he gets traded away, less so if there's a really clear reason that's not about his talent (like with Buckner & Hurst), more so if he gets traded for less than he seems to be worth.

Another way to look at this: my best guess about what Hopkins could've fetched in a trade, if the Texans had carefully shopped him around and taken the best draft pick haul, is lower now than it was a week ago. And what he could've fetched in a trade reflects what NFL teams think of him, and they know things that we don't.

And that should weigh down his value, at least a little. Enough for me to prefer Moore, Adams, and Hill.

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21 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Well, I guess the good news here is that it shouldn't be too hard to trade Hopkins for those who agree with my take.

I'm pretty confident of this one. Generally it's a bad sign about a player when he gets traded away, less so if there's a really clear reason that's not about his talent (like with Buckner & Hurst), more so if he gets traded for less than he seems to be worth.

Another way to look at this: my best guess about what Hopkins could've fetched in a trade, if the Texans had carefully shopped him around and taken the best draft pick haul, is lower now than it was a week ago. And what he could've fetched in a trade reflects what NFL teams think of him, and they know things that we don't.

And that should weigh down his value, at least a little. Enough for me to prefer Moore, Adams, and Hill.

BOB has gotten bent over on every trade, so I’m not at all down on Hopkins for only netting a second (or less). Do we really think Diggs is worth triple that of Hopkins?

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  • 1 month later...
  • 4 months later...

WR rankings after 4.1 weeks. PPR, start 3 WR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 10/8/20. Prev from my unpublished draft rankings 9/9/20 (which weren't fully up-to-date); my last posted rankings were 1/10/20.

These are a little rushed compared to my offseason rankings; in the offseason I get to spend a few days tinkering with them until they look right.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Michael Thomas    NO    27.5    (1)
1    2    Calvin Ridley    ATL    25.8    (12)
1    3    D.K. Metcalf    SEA    22.8    (17)
1    4    CeeDee Lamb    DAL    21.5    (20)
1    5    Tyreek Hill    KC    26.6    (5)
1    6    Davante Adams    GB    27.8    (4)
1    7    DeAndre Hopkins    ARI    28.3    (6)
1    8    Amari Cooper    DAL    26.3    (8)
2    9    Terry McLaurin    WAS    25.1    (26)
2    10    Chris Godwin    TB    24.6    (2)
2    11    D.J. Moore    CAR    23.5    (3)
2    12    Mike Evans    TB    27.1    (7)
2    13    A.J. Brown    TEN    23.3    (11)
2    14    Stefon Diggs    BUF    26.9    (23)
2    15    Keenan Allen    LAC    28.4    (18)
2    16    JuJu Smith-Schuster    PIT    23.9    (14)
2    17    Justin Jefferson    MIN    21.3    (25)
2    18    Kenny Golladay    DET    26.9    (13)
2    19    D.J. Chark    JAX    24.0    (16)
2    20    Odell Beckham Jr.    CLE    27.9    (10)
3    21    Allen Robinson    CHI    27.1    (22)
3    22    Cooper Kupp    RAM    27.3    (24)
3    23    Tyler Lockett    SEA    28.0    (36)
3    24    Tyler Boyd    CIN    25.9    (31)
3    25    Henry Ruggs    LV    21.7    (27)
3    26    Courtland Sutton    DEN    25.0    (9)
3    27    Deebo Samuel    SFO    24.7    (19)
3    28    Robert Woods    RAM    28.5    (30)
3    29    Jerry Jeudy    DEN    21.5    (21)
3    30    Julio Jones    ATL    31.7    (15)
4    31    Brandon Aiyuk    SF    22.6    (29)
4    32    Tee Higgins    CIN    21.7    (33)
4    33    Marquise Brown    BAL    23.3    (28)
4    34    Diontae Johnson    PIT    23.9    (38)
4    35    Adam Thielen    MIN    30.1    (42)
4    36    Laviska Shenault    JAX    22.0    (39)
4    37    Michael Pittman Jr.    IND    23.0    (34)
4    38    DeVante Parker    MIA    27.7    (40)
4    39    Robby Anderson    CAR    27.4    (56)
4    40    Jalen Reagor    PHI    21.8    (35)
4    41    Michael Gallup    DAL    24.6    (32)
4    42    Jarvis Landry    CLE    27.9    (37)
4    43    Chase Claypool    PIT    22.3    (43)
4    44    Will Fuller    HOU    26.5    (47)
5    45    Darius Slayton    NYG    23.7    (55)
5    46    Denzel Mims    NYJ    23.0    (46)
5    47    Allen Lazard    GB    24.8    (79)
5    48    Christian Kirk    ARI    23.9    (41)
5    49    Jamison Crowder    NYJ    27.3    (81)
5    50    Mecole Hardman    KAN    23.6    (52)
5    51    N'Keal Harry    NE    22.8    (53)
5    52    Julian Edelman    NE    34.4    (59)
5    53    Mike Williams    LAC    26.0    (45)
5    54    Bryan Edwards    LV    21.9    (50)
5    55    Sterling Shepard    NYG    27.7    (49)
5    56    Andy Isabella    ARI    23.9    (62)
5    57    John Brown    BUF    30.5    (70)
5    58    Brandin Cooks    RAM    27.0    (48)
5    59    A.J. Green    CIN    32.2    (51)
5    60    Gabriel Davis    BUF    21.5    (90)
5    61    Parris Campbell    IND    23.2    (57)
5    62    KJ Hamler    DEN    21.3    (58)
6    63    T.Y. Hilton    IND    30.9    (44)
6    64    Corey Davis    TEN    25.7    (73)
6    65    Preston Williams    MIA    23.5    (60)
6    66    Van Jefferson    LAR    24.2    (66)
6    67    Anthony Miller    CHI    26.0    (65)
6    68    Marvin Jones    DET    30.6    (64)
6    69    Darnell Mooney    CHI    22.9    (119)
6    70    Hunter Renfrow    LV    24.8    (78)
6    71    Devin Duvernay    BAL    23.1    (69)
6    72    Russell Gage    ATL    24.7    (116)
6    73    Tyler Johnson    TB    22.1    (80)
6    74    Curtis Samuel    CAR    24.2    (54)
6    75    Tim Patrick    DEN    26.9    (127)
6    76    Sammy Watkins    KC    27.3    (68)
6    77    Tre’Quan Smith    NO    24.8    (87)
6    78    Scott Miller    TB    23.2    (91)
6    79    James Washington    PIT    24.5    (67)
6    80    Keelan Cole    JAX    27.5    (171)
7    81    Quintez Cephus    DET    22.5    (103)
7    82    Jalen Hurd    SFO    24.7    (71)
7    83    Breshad Perriman    NYJ    27.1    (83)
7    84    John Hightower    PHI    24.4    (118)
7    85    Emmanuel Sanders    NO    33.5    (74)
7    86    Randall Cobb    HOU    30.1    (94)
7    87    DeSean Jackson    PHI    33.8    (84)
7    88    Miles Boykin    BAL    24.0    (72)
7    89    Golden Tate    NYG    32.2    (77)
7    90    Cole Beasley    BUF    31.5    (99)
7    91    Marquez Valdes-Scantling    GB    26.0    (124)
7    92    Cedrick Wilson    DAL    24.9    unr
7    93    Antonio Gandy-Golden    WAS    22.5    (89)
7    94    Jeff Smith    NYJ    23.5    unr
7    95    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    30.6    (75)
7    96    Antonio Brown        32.2    (76)
7    97    David Moore    SEA    25.7    (141)
7    98    Dontrelle Inman    WAS    31.7    (173)
7    99    Cordarrelle Patterson    CHI    29.6    (163)
7    100    JJ Arcega-Whiteside    PHI    23.8    (61)
8    101    Steven Sims    WAS    23.5    (120)
8    102    Demarcus Robinson    KC    26.0    (155)
8    103    Tyrell Williams    LV    28.7    (92)
8    104    Olamide Zaccheaus    ATL    23.2    unr
8    105    Kendrick Bourne    SF    25.2    (123)
8    106    Collin Johnson    JAX    23.0    (97)
8    107    Isaiah Coulter    HOU    22.1    (98)
8    108    Devin Funchess    GB    26.4    (95)
8    109    John Ross    CIN    24.9    (63)
8    110    Greg Ward    PHI    25.2    (100)
8    111    Braxton Berrios    NYJ    25.0    unr
8    112    Damiere Byrd    NE    27.7    (152)
8    113    Nelson Agholor    LV    27.4    (126)
8    114    Zach Pascal    IND    25.8    (96)
8    115    Dede Westbrook    JAX    26.9    (82)
8    116    Josh Reynolds    RAM    25.6    (112)
8    117    Kenny Stills    HOU    28.5    (93)
9    118    Joe Reed    LAC    22.8    (111)
9    119    Donovan Peoples-Jones    CLE    21.6    (117)
9    120    Jakeem Grant    MIA    27.9    (156)
9    121    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    37.1    (104)
9    122    Adam Humphries    TEN    27.3    (110)
9    123    Auden Tate    CIN    23.7    (113)
9    124    Hakeem Butler    PHI    24.4    (88)
9    125    Dante Pettis    SF    25.0    (86)
9    126    Keke Coutee    HOU    23.7    (85)
9    127    Freddie Swain    SEA    22.2    (138)
9    128    Zay Jones    LV    25.5    (146)
9    129    Jalen Guyton    LAC    23.3    unr
9    130    Albert Wilson    MIA    28.2    (109)
9    131    Chris Conley    JAX    28.0    (101)
9    132    Jakobi Meyers    NE    23.9    (102)
9    133    Kelvin Harmon    WAS    23.8    (108)
9    134    Quez Watkins    PHI    22.3    (130)

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Thanks @ZWK

Looking at those I think Godwin, AJB, DJM all represent pretty good value.  Maybe Godwin/AJB more than Moore since their issues have been only an injury and not production, and AJB's biggest roadblock (a low volume passing offense) seems to be lessening some.

But then I look above them and realize just how much the league is overflowing with talented young WRs right now.   There are just so many.

And then because of that we have less exciting guys like ARob and Kupp that are basically strong low WR1's whoi are still in their prime that are available for relatively cheap.

Jefferson is another guy that looks like a screaming buy as he has basically matched Lamb so far and is much cheaper.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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18 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Thanks @ZWK

Looking at those I think Godwin, AJB, DJM all represent pretty good value.  Maybe Godwin/AJB more than Moore since their issues have been only an injury and not production, and AJB's biggest roadblock (a low volume passing offense) seems to be lessening some.

But then I look above them and realize just how much the league is overflowing with talented young WRs right now.   There are just so many.

And then because of that we have less exciting guys like ARob and Kupp that are basically strong low WR1's whoi are still in their prime that are available for relatively cheap.

Jefferson is another guy that looks like a screaming buy as he has basically matched Lamb so far and is much cheaper.

It's pretty crazy to see how much Godwin has fallen despite two fairly solid ppr games when he's played.  Speaks to how crazy wrs have been this season when 10+ while healthy gets you knocked into the second tier.

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Add me to the chorus who thinks Godwin is underpriced at 10. I can't think of too many dynasty scenarios where as an Adams or Nuk owner I wouldn't take Godwin straight up. I want to say the same about Golladay but TBH I had no idea he was a couple weeks from turning 27, so in that light what I'd be willing to offer is probably an overpay.

Others I'd be buying at these prices: Chark, Diontae / Claypool, Hardman, Edwards, Duvernay, Hurd, Boykin, Auden Tate.

I'd be selling: Amari, A-Rob, Boyd, Parker, Landry, Fuller, Lazard, Kirk, M. Williams, Cooks (who's definitely not a Ram any more, BTW). TBH there are very few names in that WR38-60 range I wouldn't be looking for an excuse to move off my rosters.

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On 10/9/2020 at 2:23 AM, ZWK said:

WR rankings after 4.1 weeks. PPR, start 3 WR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 10/8/20. Prev from my unpublished draft rankings 9/9/20 (which weren't fully up-to-date); my last posted rankings were 1/10/20.

These are a little rushed compared to my offseason rankings; in the offseason I get to spend a few days tinkering with them until they look right.

Thanks for the rankings update ZWK.  

I feel like Laviska might be a riser soon.

Do you have RBs or QB's coming out soon?

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Looks a lot different than mine ha. Love the counter perspective though. 

My first thought was why MT at #1 and you bumped Adams/Nuk down below the younger guys. MT is less situation proof in my mind and his variability can come down where as the Adams/Nuk have long term QB stability and a arguably a more solid team no?

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13 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Looks a lot different than mine ha. Love the counter perspective though. 

My first thought was why MT at #1 and you bumped Adams/Nuk down below the younger guys. MT is less situation proof in my mind and his variability can come down where as the Adams/Nuk have long term QB stability and a arguably a more solid team no?

Considering his age and Brees retiring, hard to take that high.

Lots of guys look too low to me but when I look who's above them it's tough to argue. But Cooks that low is crazy and Preston Williams should be top 40 at absolute worst.

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  • 5 months later...

Formulaic TE projections. Estimated remaining career VBD, based on pretty simple formulas (accounting for age, recent production, draft picks for the young guys).

I now have a spreadsheet with formulaic TE projections for every offseason for the past 25+ years. I included a 15% annual discount rate in those calculations, which (for this offseason) would mean that 2022 VBD is only worth 85% as much as 2021 VBD, and 2023 VBD is only worth 85% as much as 2022 VBD (72% as much as 2021), etc. I've also been tinkering a bit with the formula in other ways - the biggest change is being more generous to yr4-5 TEs who haven't done much yet, by limiting how quickly their value can drop from one year to the next.

The spreadsheet also has another tab showing the (fantasy) career trajectories of every fantasy-relevant TE who entered the NFL since 1988 (fantasy-relevant means that they either >0 career VBD or were drafted in the top 150 picks, so it does leave out some hot names like Zach Sudfeld). Plus some other tabs (in parentheses) which I used in my calculations.

Here are the current formulaic TE projections, using roughly the same format that I've been using all along in this thread (last year's here), which means no discounting of future years.

Value is projected remaining career VBD, age is as of 9/1/21. Rookies are based on projected draft pick & will move when we see where they're actually drafted.

Value  Player        Team  Age
357    Darren Waller    LV    29.0
353    Travis Kelce    KC    31.9
293    Kyle Pitts (pick 9)    ROOK    20.9
261    T.J. Hockenson    DET    24.2
243    George Kittle    SF    27.9
211    Mark Andrews    BAL    26.0
173    Noah Fant    DEN    23.8
113    Pat Freiermuth (pick 40)    ROOK    22.9
111    Austin Hooper    CLE    26.8
88    Hunter Henry        26.7
78    Cole Kmet    CHI    22.5
76    Zach Ertz    PHI    30.8
70    Irv Smith    MIN    23.1
62    Robert Tonyan    GB    27.3
61    Brevin Jordan (pick 64)    ROOK    21.1
57    Evan Engram    NYG    27.0
53    Adam Trautman    NO    24.6
47    Hayden Hurst    ATL    28.0
44    Dallas Goedert    PHI    26.7
40    Mike Gesicki    MIA    25.9
40    Harrison Bryant    CLE    23.4
40    Drew Sample    CIN    25.4
39    O.J. Howard    TB    26.8
26    Will Dissly    SEA    25.1
24    Albert Okwuegbunam    DEN    23.4
24    Hunter Long (pick 119)    ROOK    23.0
23    David Njoku    CLE    25.1
22    Tyler Higbee    RAM    28.7
21    Logan Thomas    WAS    30.2
21    Josh Oliver    JAX    24.4
19    Devin Asiasi    NE    24.0
18    Josiah Deguara    GB    24.5
18    Jared Cook        34.4
17    Dalton Keene    NE    22.4
17    Hakeem Butler    PHI    25.3
16    Kahale Warring    HOU    24.4
14    Dawson Knox    BUF    24.8
11    Jordan Akins    HOU    29.4
9    Gerald Everett        27.2
7    Jonnu Smith        26.0
5    Chris Herndon    NYJ    25.5

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And my dynasty TE rankings. PPR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 9/2/20. Prev from just before the 2020 season (not posted); last posted rankings were 1/5/20.

I've also stuck these in a spreadsheet, if you prefer that format.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    George Kittle    SF    27.9    (1)
1    2    Kyle Pitts    ROOK    20.9    rook
1    3    Travis Kelce    KC    31.9    (2)
1    4    Darren Waller    LV    29.0    (9)
1    5    T.J. Hockenson    DET    24.2    (4)
2    6    Noah Fant    DEN    23.8    (5)
2    7    Mark Andrews    BAL    26.0    (3)
3    8    Hunter Henry        26.7    (8)
3    9    Dallas Goedert    PHI    26.7    (10)
4    10    Mike Gesicki    MIA    25.9    (15)
4    11    Evan Engram    NYG    27.0    (7)
4    12    Irv Smith    MIN    23.1    (14)
4    13    Adam Trautman    NO    24.6    (31)
4    14    Robert Tonyan    GB    27.3    unr
4    15    Cole Kmet    CHI    22.5    (18)
4    16    Brevin Jordan    ROOK    21.1    rook
4    17    Pat Freiermuth    ROOK    22.9    rook
4    18    Logan Thomas    WAS    30.2    unr
5    19    Hayden Hurst    ATL    28.0    (11)
5    20    Tyler Higbee    RAM    28.7    (13)
5    21    Austin Hooper    CLE    26.8    (12)
5    22    Jonnu Smith        26.0    (23)
5    23    Albert Okwuegbunam    DEN    23.4    (32)
5    24    Harrison Bryant    CLE    23.4    (40)
5    25    O.J. Howard    TB    26.8    (17)
5    26    Zach Ertz    PHI    30.8    (6)
5    27    Rob Gronkowski        32.3    (19)
5    28    Blake Jarwin    DAL    27.1    (33)
5    29    Gerald Everett        27.2    (21)
6    30    Will Dissly    SEA    25.1    (22)
6    31    Dawson Knox    BUF    24.8    (26)
6    32    Jordan Akins    HOU    29.4    (42)
6    33    Kenny Yeboah    ROOK    22.9    rook
6    34    Anthony Firkser        26.5    (48)
6    35    Hunter Long    ROOK    23.0    rook
6    36    Mo Alie-Cox    IND    28.0    (55)
6    37    Donald Parham    LAC    24.0    
6    38    Eric Ebron    PIT    28.4    (25)
6    39    David Njoku    CLE    25.1    (24)
6    40    Tommy Tremble    ROOK    21.2    
6    41    Drew Sample    CIN    25.4    (36)
6    42    Chris Herndon    NYJ    25.5    (16)
6    43    Devin Asiasi    NE    24.0    (27)
6    44    Josh Oliver    JAX    24.4    (38)
6    45    Dalton Keene    NE    22.4    (35)
6    46    Dalton Schultz    DAL    25.1    unr
7    47    Josiah Deguara    GB    24.5    (39)
7    48    Cameron Brate    TB    30.2    (59)
7    49    Jack Doyle    IND    31.3    (34)
7    50    Jared Cook        34.4    (20)
7    51    Foster Moreau    LV    24.3    (30)
7    52    Dan Arnold        26.5    (67)
7    53    Richard Rodgers        29.6    unr
7    54    Kahale Warring    HOU    24.4    (37)
7    55    Kyle Rudolph        31.8    (41)
7    56    Trey Burton        29.8    (47)
7    57    Jimmy Graham    CHI    34.8    (51)
7    58    Jordan Reed        31.2    (60)
7    59    Hakeem Butler    PHI    25.3    (WR88)
7    60    C.J. Uzomah    CIN    28.6    (73)
[probably some more rookies should go about here]
8    61    Kaden Smith    NYG    24.4    (53)
8    62    Adam Shaheen        27.9    (66)
8    63    Darren Fells    HOU    35.4    (57)
8    64    Trevon Wesco    NYJ    26.0    (65)
8    65    Jace Sternberger    GB    25.2    (29)
8    66    Ian Thomas    CAR    25.2    (28)
8    67    Jacob Hollister        27.8    (52)
8    68    Jaeden Graham    ATL    25.9    (54)
8    69    Delanie Walker        37.1    (50)
8    70    Hunter Bryant    DET    23.0    (68)
8    71    Tyler Eifert        31.0    (46)
8    72    Brycen Hopkins    LAR    24.4    (49)
8    73    Ryan Griffin    NYJ    31.6    (72)
8    74    Colby Parkinson    SEA    22.7    (44)
8    75    Vance McDonald        31.2    (45)
8    76    James O’Shaugnessy        29.6    (77)
8    77    Zach Gentry    PIT    25.0    (70)

I put more work into the top 60 than into the rest; but figured I'd post the next 17 names anyways.

Top 5 are all pretty close together; I keep reshuffling them. Obviously a big difference depending on whether you're a contender or not. Next 2 (Fant & Andrews) are not far back. The two after that (Henry & Goedert) are far back; to a first approximation there's a top 7 and then everyone else.

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  • ZWK changed the title to ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (TE updated March 2021)
On 3/14/2021 at 10:50 PM, ZWK said:

And my dynasty TE rankings. PPR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 9/2/20. Prev from just before the 2020 season (not posted); last posted rankings were 1/5/20.

I've also stuck these in a spreadsheet, if you prefer that format.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    George Kittle    SF    27.9    (1)
1    2    Kyle Pitts    ROOK    20.9    rook
1    3    Travis Kelce    KC    31.9    (2)
1    4    Darren Waller    LV    29.0    (9)
1    5    T.J. Hockenson    DET    24.2    (4)
2    6    Noah Fant    DEN    23.8    (5)
2    7    Mark Andrews    BAL    26.0    (3)
3    8    Hunter Henry        26.7    (8)
3    9    Dallas Goedert    PHI    26.7    (10)
4    10    Mike Gesicki    MIA    25.9    (15)
4    11    Evan Engram    NYG    27.0    (7)
4    12    Irv Smith    MIN    23.1    (14)
4    13    Adam Trautman    NO    24.6    (31)
4    14    Robert Tonyan    GB    27.3    unr
4    15    Cole Kmet    CHI    22.5    (18)
4    16    Brevin Jordan    ROOK    21.1    rook
4    17    Pat Freiermuth    ROOK    22.9    rook
4    18    Logan Thomas    WAS    30.2    unr
5    19    Hayden Hurst    ATL    28.0    (11)
5    20    Tyler Higbee    RAM    28.7    (13)
5    21    Austin Hooper    CLE    26.8    (12)
5    22    Jonnu Smith        26.0    (23)
5    23    Albert Okwuegbunam    DEN    23.4    (32)
5    24    Harrison Bryant    CLE    23.4    (40)
5    25    O.J. Howard    TB    26.8    (17)
5    26    Zach Ertz    PHI    30.8    (6)
5    27    Rob Gronkowski        32.3    (19)
5    28    Blake Jarwin    DAL    27.1    (33)
5    29    Gerald Everett        27.2    (21)
6    30    Will Dissly    SEA    25.1    (22)
6    31    Dawson Knox    BUF    24.8    (26)
6    32    Jordan Akins    HOU    29.4    (42)
6    33    Kenny Yeboah    ROOK    22.9    rook
6    34    Anthony Firkser        26.5    (48)
6    35    Hunter Long    ROOK    23.0    rook
6    36    Mo Alie-Cox    IND    28.0    (55)
6    37    Donald Parham    LAC    24.0    
6    38    Eric Ebron    PIT    28.4    (25)
6    39    David Njoku    CLE    25.1    (24)
6    40    Tommy Tremble    ROOK    21.2    
6    41    Drew Sample    CIN    25.4    (36)
6    42    Chris Herndon    NYJ    25.5    (16)
6    43    Devin Asiasi    NE    24.0    (27)
6    44    Josh Oliver    JAX    24.4    (38)
6    45    Dalton Keene    NE    22.4    (35)
6    46    Dalton Schultz    DAL    25.1    unr
7    47    Josiah Deguara    GB    24.5    (39)
7    48    Cameron Brate    TB    30.2    (59)
7    49    Jack Doyle    IND    31.3    (34)
7    50    Jared Cook        34.4    (20)
7    51    Foster Moreau    LV    24.3    (30)
7    52    Dan Arnold        26.5    (67)
7    53    Richard Rodgers        29.6    unr
7    54    Kahale Warring    HOU    24.4    (37)
7    55    Kyle Rudolph        31.8    (41)
7    56    Trey Burton        29.8    (47)
7    57    Jimmy Graham    CHI    34.8    (51)
7    58    Jordan Reed        31.2    (60)
7    59    Hakeem Butler    PHI    25.3    (WR88)
7    60    C.J. Uzomah    CIN    28.6    (73)
[probably some more rookies should go about here]
8    61    Kaden Smith    NYG    24.4    (53)
8    62    Adam Shaheen        27.9    (66)
8    63    Darren Fells    HOU    35.4    (57)
8    64    Trevon Wesco    NYJ    26.0    (65)
8    65    Jace Sternberger    GB    25.2    (29)
8    66    Ian Thomas    CAR    25.2    (28)
8    67    Jacob Hollister        27.8    (52)
8    68    Jaeden Graham    ATL    25.9    (54)
8    69    Delanie Walker        37.1    (50)
8    70    Hunter Bryant    DET    23.0    (68)
8    71    Tyler Eifert        31.0    (46)
8    72    Brycen Hopkins    LAR    24.4    (49)
8    73    Ryan Griffin    NYJ    31.6    (72)
8    74    Colby Parkinson    SEA    22.7    (44)
8    75    Vance McDonald        31.2    (45)
8    76    James O’Shaugnessy        29.6    (77)
8    77    Zach Gentry    PIT    25.0    (70)

I put more work into the top 60 than into the rest; but figured I'd post the next 17 names anyways.

Top 5 are all pretty close together; I keep reshuffling them. Obviously a big difference depending on whether you're a contender or not. Next 2 (Fant & Andrews) are not far back. The two after that (Henry & Goedert) are far back; to a first approximation there's a top 7 and then everyone else.

Not sure if it affects your formula but Player Profiler has Hunter Long as 21.6 not 23. I think that would make sense since he’s an early declare.

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

Not sure if it affects your formula but Player Profiler has Hunter Long as 21.6 not 23. I think that would make sense since he’s an early declare.

I got his birthdate from DLF, which has it as 8/19/98.

It looks like that's off by a year from Player Profiler, which presumably has it as 8/19/99. (I'm giving ages as of 9/1/21 rather than as of today, which should account for the other 0.4.)

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Through the formula you have Freiermuth ahead of Jordan by quite a bit (7 spots), yet you rank Jordan ahead in your own rankings? Curious as to why.

I like Freiermuth way more than Jordan myself. 

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The formula is just going by projected draft pick (from here, as of some days ago).

I'm not wild about Freiermuth because his numbers look like a big slowish possession receiver. He has a total of 6 25+ yard receptions over his career, and draftscout has him projected to run a 4.77. Jordan has 14 25+ yarders and is projected at 4.67.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Formulaic WR rankings.

Like previous years, I'm predicting remaining career VBD using fairly simple formulas.

My two standard methods are:

Production (prod), where the formula is based only on age, VBD last year, and VBD the year before.

Draft, for players who have been in the NFL 2 years or less, where the formula also incorporates draft pick. (I have also included this year's rookie class, assuming that their draft pick matches this consensus big board.)

This year, I have added a third method:

Decay, where a player's value is at worst 40% of what he was worth last offseason. This limits how quickly players like Michael Thomas, Courtland Sutton, or Alshon Jeffery can slide down the rankings after a bad or missed season. This was done ad hoc, because the rankings seem more plausible if I do this.

Players who are ranked by the decay method carry an implied asterisk indicating "use some judgment here", since some of them (like Sutton) pretty clearly should not have fallen this far and others (like Jeffery) pretty clearly should have fallen farther. On the whole I think it helps, especially for the top 100 (players with >25 predicted remaining career VBD), plus it means that I don't have to manually add those asterisks myself.

Age is as of 7/1/21, Prev is from last offseason.

Value  Player         Age   Method   Prev
482    Justin Jefferson    22    draft    (190)
467    Davante Adams    28.5    prod    (372)
413    A.J. Brown    24    draft    (178)
406    Tyreek Hill    27.3    prod    (353)
366    D.K. Metcalf    23.5    draft    (129)
358    Stefon Diggs    27.6    prod    (249)
346    Ja'Marr Chase (pick 5)        draft    rook
344    CeeDee Lamb    22.2    draft    (219)
327    Calvin Ridley    26.5    prod    (439)
326    Brandon Aiyuk    23.3    draft    (176)
320    Chris Godwin    25.3    prod    (388)
312    Terry McLaurin    25.8    draft    (142)
297    Devonta Smith (pick 8 )      draft    rook
290    DeAndre Hopkins    29.1    prod    (386)
274    Jaylen Waddle (pick 10)        draft    rook
255    Diontae Johnson    24.7    draft    (113)
247    Allen Robinson    27.9    prod    (205)
240    Deebo Samuel    25.5    draft    (207)
240    Michael Thomas    28.3    decay    (601)
231    Mike Evans    27.9    prod    (349)
229    Keenan Allen    29.2    prod    (264)
228    D.J. Moore    24.2    prod    (386)
221    Tee Higgins    22.5    draft    (146)
212    Marquise Brown    24.1    draft    (211)
204    Tyler Lockett    28.8    prod    (180)
199    Amari Cooper    27    prod    (253)
185    Rashod Bateman (pick 23)        draft    rook
177    Cooper Kupp    28    prod    (274)
174    Chase Claypool    23    draft    (107)
167    Robert Woods    29.2    prod    (234)
166    Will Fuller    27.2    prod    (103)
164    JuJu Smith-Schuster    24.6    prod    (120)
156    Kadarius Toney (pick 30)        draft    rook
155    Henry Ruggs    22.4    draft    (256)
150    Laviska Shenault    22.7    draft    (121)
146    Jerry Jeudy    22.2    draft    (233)
144    DJ Chark    24.8    prod    (271)
142    Curtis Samuel    24.9    prod    (82)
140    Terrace Marshall (pick 35)        draft    rook
137    Rondale Moore (pick 36)        draft    rook
130    Jalen Reagor    22.5    draft    (196)
124    Brandin Cooks    27.8    prod    (58)
124    Elijah Moore (pick 41)        draft    rook
122    Tyler Boyd    26.6    prod    (227)
122    Michael Gallup    25.3    prod    (241)
108    Adam Thielen    30.9    prod    (136)
108    Kenny Golladay    27.7    prod    (230)
107    Courtland Sutton    25.7    decay    (268)
104    Julio Jones    32.4    prod    (253)
102    Michael Pittman Jr.    23.7    draft    (143)
97    DeVante Parker    28.4    prod    (148)
94    Corey Davis    26.5    prod    (41)
92    Christian Kirk    24.6    decay    (229)
90    Jarvis Landry    28.6    prod    (183)
88    Jamison Crowder    28    prod    (73)
86    Amon-Ra St. Brown (pick 63)        draft    rook
86    Robby Anderson    28.1    prod    (44)
85    Dyami Brown (pick 64)        draft    rook
84    KJ Hamler    22    draft    (113)
80    Sterling Shepard    28.4    prod    (96)
78    Marvin Jones    31.3    prod    (81)
77    Tylan Wallace (pick 72)        draft    rook
74    Odell Beckham    28.7    decay    (184)
72    Van Jefferson    24.9    draft    (94)
71    Amari Rodgers (pick 79)        draft    rook
70    Denzel Mims    23.7    draft    (91)
64    D'Wayne Eskridge (pick 88)        draft    rook
58    Tutu Atwell (pick 94)        draft    rook
58    Bryan Edwards    22.6    draft    (69)
57    Darius Slayton    24.5    draft    (107)
57    Keke Coutee    24.5    prod    (123)
57    Jakobi Meyers    24.6    prod    (0)
56    Hunter Renfrow    25.5    draft    (56)
55    N'Keal Harry    23.5    draft    (106)
53    Devin Duvernay    23.8    draft    (60)
51    Russell Gage    25.4    prod    (0)
50    Seth Williams (pick 104)        draft    rook
48    Nico Collins (pick 106)        draft    rook
44    Mike Williams    26.7    prod    (70)
44    Antonio Brown    33    decay    (111)
42    Preston Williams    24.3    prod    (75)
39    Jaelon Darden (pick 118)        draft    rook
36    John Ross    25.6    prod    (69)
36    T.Y. Hilton    31.6    decay    (90)
35    Julian Edelman    35.1    decay    (88)
35    Mecole Hardman    24.3    draft    (73)
35    JJ Arcega-Whiteside    24.5    draft    (72)
34    Parris Campbell    24    draft    (70)
34    Cole Beasley    32.2    prod    (20)
33    Cornell Powell (pick 126)        draft    rook
33    Andy Isabella    24.6    draft    (67)
32    Anthony Schwartz (pick 128)        draft    rook
31    Jalen Hurd    25.4    draft    (64)
30    Nelson Agholor    28.1    prod    (27)
30    Josh Palmer (pick 131)        draft    rook
30    John Brown    31.2    prod    (71)
29    Sage Surratt (pick 133)        draft    rook
28    Dazz Newsome (pick 135)        draft    rook
28    Ihmir Smith-Marsette (pick 136)        draft    rook
27    Rashard Higgins    26.7    prod    (31)
26    Tim Patrick    27.6    prod    (0)
25    Miles Boykin    24.7    draft    (52)
23    Dede Westbrook    27.6    prod    (55)
21    Josh Imatorbhebhe (pick 149)        draft    rook
21    Alshon Jeffery    31.4    decay    (53)
21    Breshad Perriman    27.8    prod    (29)
21    Hakeem Butler    25.1    draft    (43)
20    Gabriel Davis    22.3    draft    (32)
20    Sammy Watkins    28    prod    (40)
20    Tamorrion Terry (pick 153)        draft    rook
17    Cade Johnson (pick 159)        draft    rook
17    Dante Pettis    25.7    decay    (43)
16    Chris Conley    28.7    prod    (20)
15    Anthony Miller    26.7    decay    (38)
15    Zay Jones    26.3    decay    (37)
15    Golden Tate    32.9    decay    (37)
14    Jonathan Adams Jr. (pick 169)        draft    rook
14    Shi Smith (pick 170)        draft    rook
13    Tyrell Williams    29.4    prod    (17)
13    James Washington    25.2    decay    (33)
13    Adam Humphries    28    decay    (33)
13    Antonio Gandy-Golden    23.2    draft    (25)
13    Geronimo Allison    27.5    decay    (31)
12    Gary Jennings    24.3    draft    (25)
12    Brennan Eagles (pick 175)        draft    rook
11    T.J. Vasher (pick 178)        draft    rook
11    Albert Wilson    29    decay    (28)
11    Marlon Williams (pick 180)        draft    rook
10    Tre'Quan Smith    25.5    decay    (26)
10    Riley Ridley    24.9    draft    (21)
10    Marquez Stevenson (pick 183)        draft    rook
10    Dez Fitzpatrick (pick 184)        draft    rook
10    Joe Reed    23.5    draft    (21)
10    Damonte Coxie (pick 185)        draft    rook

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  • 4 weeks later...

Pre-draft dynasty WR rankings, including rookies. PPR, start 3 WR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/21. Prev from 10/8/20. Influenced by my formulaic WR rankings.

Also available in a spreadsheet.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Justin Jefferson    MIN    22.2    (17)
1    2    D.K. Metcalf    SEA    23.7    (3)
1    3    A.J. Brown    TEN    24.2    (13)
1    4    Davante Adams    GB    28.7    (6)
1    5    Tyreek Hill    KC    27.5    (5)
1    6    Ja'Marr Chase        21.5    
1    7    Stefon Diggs    BUF    27.8    (14)
1    8    CeeDee Lamb    DAL    22.4    (4)
1    9    Terry McLaurin    WAS    26.0    (9)
1    10    Calvin Ridley    ATL    26.7    (2)
1    11    DeAndre Hopkins    ARI    29.2    (7)
1    12    Chris Godwin    TB    25.5    (10)
2    13    Michael Thomas    NO    28.5    (1)
2    14    Brandon Aiyuk    SF    23.5    (31)
2    15    Tee Higgins    CIN    22.6    (32)
2    16    D.J. Moore    CAR    24.4    (11)
3    17    Amari Cooper    DAL    27.2    (8)
3    18    Jaylen Waddle        22.8    
3    19    Devonta Smith        22.8    
3    20    Keenan Allen    LAC    29.3    (15)
3    21    Chase Claypool    PIT    23.2    (43)
3    22    Mike Evans    TB    28.0    (12)
3    23    Allen Robinson    CHI    28.0    (21)
3    24    Courtland Sutton    DEN    25.9    (26)
3    25    JuJu Smith-Schuster    PIT    24.8    (16)
3    26    Jerry Jeudy    DEN    22.4    (29)
3    27    Terrace Marshall        21.2    
3    28    Rashod Bateman        21.8    
3    29    Tyler Lockett    SEA    28.9    (23)
3    30    Deebo Samuel    SFO    25.6    (27)
3    31    Kenny Golladay    NYG    27.8    (18)
3    32    Robert Woods    RAM    29.4    (28)
3    33    Cooper Kupp    RAM    28.2    (22)
3    34    Diontae Johnson    PIT    24.8    (34)
4    35    Rondale Moore        21.2    
4    36    Elijah Moore        21.4    
4    37    D.J. Chark    JAX    24.9    (19)
4    38    Tyler Boyd    CIN    26.8    (24)
4    39    Odell Beckham Jr.    CLE    28.8    (20)
4    40    Julio Jones    ATL    32.6    (30)
4    41    Laviska Shenault    JAX    22.9    (36)
4    42    Kadarius Toney        22.6    
4    43    Robby Anderson    CAR    28.3    (39)
4    44    Michael Pittman Jr.    IND    23.9    (37)
4    45    Adam Thielen    MIN    31.0    (35)
4    46    Henry Ruggs    LV    22.6    (25)
4    47    Jalen Reagor    PHI    22.7    (40)
4    48    Will Fuller    MIA    27.4    (44)
4    49    Marquise Brown    BAL    24.2    (33)
4    50    Corey Davis    NYJ    26.6    (64)
5    51    Brandin Cooks    HOU    27.9    (58)
5    52    Curtis Samuel    WAS    25.1    (74)
5    53    Dyami Brown        21.8    
5    54    Tylan Wallace        22.3    
5    55    Jarvis Landry    CLE    28.8    (42)
5    56    Michael Gallup    DAL    25.5    (41)
5    57    Nelson Agholor    NE    28.3    (113)
5    58    Christian Kirk    ARI    24.8    (48)
5    59    DeVante Parker    MIA    28.6    (38)
5    60    Denzel Mims    NYJ    23.9    (46)
5    61    Gabriel Davis    BUF    22.4    (60)
5    62    D'Wayne Eskridge        24.4    
5    63    Darius Slayton    NYG    24.6    (45)
5    64    Allen Lazard    GB    25.7    (47)
5    65    Jamison Crowder    NYJ    28.2    (49)
5    66    Jakobi Meyers    NE    24.8    (132)
5    67    Mike Williams    LAC    26.9    (53)
5    68    Bryan Edwards    LV    22.8    (54)
5    69    Sterling Shepard    NYG    28.6    (55)
5    70    Amon-Ra St. Brown        21.9    
5    71    KJ Hamler    DEN    22.2    (62)
5    72    Amari Rodgers        21.9    
5    73    Antonio Brown    TB    33.1    (96)
5    74    Van Jefferson    LAR    25.1    (66)
5    75    Darnell Mooney    CHI    23.8    (69)
6    76    Parris Campbell    IND    24.1    (61)
6    77    Seth Williams        21.4    
6    78    Mecole Hardman    KAN    24.5    (50)
6    79    Tutu Atwell        21.9    
6    80    Marvin Jones    JAX    31.5    (68)
6    81    N'Keal Harry    NE    23.7    (51)
6    82    T.Y. Hilton    IND    31.8    (63)
6    83    Breshad Perriman    DET    28.0    (83)
6    84    Nico Collins        22.5    
6    85    Jaelon Darden        22.6    
6    86    Cade Johnson        23.4    
6    87    A.J. Green    ARI    33.1    (59)
6    88    Devin Duvernay    BAL    24.0    (71)
6    89    Anthony Miller    CHI    26.9    (67)
6    90    Tre’Quan Smith    NO    25.7    (77)
6    91    Tamorrion Terry        23.4    
6    92    Michael Strachan        24.1    
6    93    Marquez Valdes-Scantling    GB    26.9    (91)
6    94    Andy Isabella    ARI    24.8    (56)
6    95    Cole Beasley    BUF    32.4    (90)
6    96    John Brown    LV    31.4    (57)
6    97    Lynn Bowden    MIA    23.9    unr
6    98    Deonte Harris    NO    23.7    unr
6    99    Keke Coutee    HOU    24.6    (126)
6    100    Tyler Johnson    TB    23.0    (73)
6    101    Russell Gage    ATL    25.6    (72)
6    102    Hunter Renfrow    LV    25.7    (70)
6    103    Preston Williams    MIA    24.4    (65)
6    104    Anthony Schwartz        21.0    
6    105    Travis Fulgham    PHI    26.0    unr
6    106    Sammy Watkins    BAL    28.2    (76)
6    107    Tim Patrick    DEN    27.8    (75)
6    108    Sage Surratt        23.4    
6    109    James Washington    PIT    25.4    (79)
6    110    Scott Miller    TB    24.1    (78)
7    111    Tyrell Williams    DET    29.6    (103)
7    112    Donovan Peoples-Jones    CLE    22.5    (119)
7    113    Emmanuel Sanders    BUF    34.4    (85)
7    114    Quintez Cephus    DET    23.4    (81)
7    115    DeSean Jackson    LAR    34.7    (87)
7    116    Rashard Higgins    CLE    26.9    (140)
7    117    Randall Cobb    HOU    31.0    (86)
7    118    Josh Reynolds    TEN    26.5    (116)
7    119    Devin Funchess    GB    27.3    (108)
7    120    Isaiah Coulter    HOU    23.0    (107)
7    121    Zach Pascal    IND    26.7    (114)
7    122    Jalen Guyton    LAC    24.2    (129)
7    123    Demarcus Robinson    KC    26.9    (102)
7    124    Keelan Cole    NYJ    28.4    (80)
7    125    Collin Johnson    JAX    23.9    (106)
7    126    Marquez Callaway    NO    23.4    unr
8    127    Tyron Johnson    LAC    25.6    unr
8    128    Josh Palmer        21.9    
8    129    Cornell Powell        23.8    
8    130    Simi Fehoko        23.8    
8    131    Kendrick Bourne    NE    26.1    (105)
8    132    Ihmir Smith-Marsette        22.0    
8    133    Jacob Harris        24.4    
8    134    Marquez Stevenson        23.4    
8    135    Jonathan Adams Jr.        22.6    
8    136    David Moore    CAR    26.6    (97)
8    137    John Hightower    PHI    25.3    (84)
8    138    Marlon Williams        22.1    
8    139    Antonio Gandy-Golden    WAS    23.4    (93)
8    140    Isaiah McKoy        21.6    
8    141    Greg Ward    PHI    26.1    (110)
8    142    Miles Boykin    BAL    24.9    (88)
8    143    Jakeem Grant    MIA    28.8    (120)
8    144    Chris Conley    HOU    28.9    (131)

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  • ZWK changed the title to ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)

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