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ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)


ZWK

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Here are some WR rankings. Age as of 11/1/14...

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

4 9 T.Y. Hilton IND 25.0 (21)

4 11 Randall Cobb GB 24.3 (11)

5 17 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 23.8 (25)

5 20 Davante Adams GB 21.9 (24)

6 32 Victor Cruz NYG 28.0 (13)

6 41 Jordan Matthews PHI 22.3 (36)

7 48 Steve Smith BAL 35.6 (89)

7 52 Rueben Randle NYG 23.5 (63)

8 58 Wes Welker DEN 33.5 (46)

8 69 Malcom Floyd SD 33.2 (85)

Comments on these guys.

Hilton seems high. Is this ranking based on the assumption he resigns and the Colts don't improve their other receivers as Wayne fades into retirement?

Benjamin seems low. Why are Beckham and Cooks higher, for example?

How to explain having Cobb at 11 and Adams at 20? I could see Adams at 20 if you assume Cobb doesn't stay in Green Bay, but Cobb at 11 seems to show you assume he will stay.

Cruz at 32 is low, considering he is just 28. Are you assuming he never fully recovers from the injury? If that is your assumption, how to justify Randle so low, when he isn't even 24 yet? Not a believer in his talent?

Matthews at 41 seems low. Do you not expect him to improve and command more targets over the next couple years? Or do you just not expect him to do much with the targets?

The other guys all seem too high given their ages. Smith has the best past history but will be 36 before next season. Floyd has always been underrated but never a strong fantasy performer for any sustained period. Hard to see that changing much at his age, plus he has historically been unable to stay healthy. With Welker, you not only have his age, but also Manning's age and a concussion history.

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Hilton is 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards, so he can afford to lose a bit of his workload. The Luck offense is going to create a big enough pie to support him even if they add more weapons. Things look very good for him if he spends his career in Indy with Luck.

Harvin produced in Minnesota, and he seems to be producing now in New York (over 80 yfs/game). Locker room troubles add some risk but aren't a huge negative for a WR that performs well on the field. Flaming out in Seattle is obviously a bad sign, but he's still 26 and over 70 yfs/game for his career.

Kelvin Benjamin has relied on a high volume of targets in Carolina's barren receiving corps to get his numbers. His play has been uneven. He's going to need to improve as a receiver. Cooks has put up similar totals (with a couple fewer TDs) with better efficiency stats.

Josh Gordon: I realized that just after I posted my rankings that I had him too low. He should be up with Harvin & Hopkins.

If Davante Adams becomes one of Rodgers's top 2 targets, then he's likely to be a top 15 fantasy WR. He has several routes that could get him there: Cobb leaving town, Adams outplaying Cobb, Cobb or Nelson getting injured, age-related decline from Nelson. You might think that should make Nelson or Cobb get ranked lower, but the others receivers around them in the rankings have their own risks (everybody does); it's just that Adams happens to benefit from the risks facing two other WRs. Cobb's risk of leaving town is also priced into his ranking; if he was under contract long-term he'd be in tier 3 (probably ahead of Nelson, because of the age gap).

Rueben Randle: his ranking is based on my impression of his talent. His situation seems pretty average, looking long-term. It's a pretty good situation for redraft purposes, but he isn't doing much with it so far.

Stevie Johnson: Sometimes a team's WR3 has good per-target numbers because the QB doesn't throw it to him unless he's open (you call it the Patrick Crayton problem). Johnson's high YPRR shows that that isn't what's happening with him - he has good per-target numbers even though he's getting the ball often when he's on the field. And we know he can handle a larger role since he did it in Buffalo. Boldin is 34, and Davis isn't a target hog, so if Crabtree leaves there's a good chance that the opportunity will be there.

Jarvis Landry: I haven't looked into him that closely so I could be underrating him.

Steve Smith, Malcom Floyd, etc.: Old receivers who are producing now are fairly valuable (relative to prospects with potential future value) because of the value of a roster space. You get their production for a little while, and then when they stop producing you can cut them and pick up a prospect then.

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Kelvin Benjamin has relied on a high volume of targets in Carolina's barren receiving corps to get his numbers. His play has been uneven. He's going to need to improve as a receiver. Cooks has put up similar totals (with a couple fewer TDs) with better efficiency stats.

Of course Cooks has better efficiency stats. He plays in NO as a WR2/3 in a much better system, out of the slot a majority of the time and Brees at QB vs. Cam. Benjamin has 7 TDs to his 4 and a YPC of 15.3 to 10.4. Benjamin is playing the role of a WR1 on a significantly worse offense.

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Kelvin Benjamin has relied on a high volume of targets in Carolina's barren receiving corps to get his numbers. His play has been uneven. He's going to need to improve as a receiver. Cooks has put up similar totals (with a couple fewer TDs) with better efficiency stats.

Of course Cooks has better efficiency stats. He plays in NO as a WR2/3 in a much better system, out of the slot a majority of the time and Brees at QB vs. Cam. Benjamin has 7 TDs to his 4 and a YPC of 15.3 to 10.4. Benjamin is playing the role of a WR1 on a significantly worse offense.

None of that is changing anytime soon.

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Kelvin Benjamin has relied on a high volume of targets in Carolina's barren receiving corps to get his numbers. His play has been uneven. He's going to need to improve as a receiver. Cooks has put up similar totals (with a couple fewer TDs) with better efficiency stats.

Of course Cooks has better efficiency stats. He plays in NO as a WR2/3 in a much better system, out of the slot a majority of the time and Brees at QB vs. Cam. Benjamin has 7 TDs to his 4 and a YPC of 15.3 to 10.4. Benjamin is playing the role of a WR1 on a significantly worse offense.

None of that is changing anytime soon.

Even if it doesn't, Benjamin is the more impactful fantasy player. He's got more yds and TDs.

To say none of that will change anytime soon is pretty shortsighted as well. All of that could change next year. Things can change very fast in the NFL.

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I think its safe to move Patterson/Hunter and Austin down into the 40s. They obviously have physical gifts, but so do a lot of guys that actually know how to play WR. Their situations are all currently bleak as well. Honestly, I'm more intrigued by Latimer, Bryant and Moncrief. At least they may walk into great situations in 2015. There's no way I would give up somebody like Allen Robinson or Jordan Matthews for any of those three.

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6 36 Allen Robinson JAX 21.2 (41)

Very low on Robinson.

Why so optimistic on Robinson? I like him and have a situation where I'm weighing him against Patterson and Victor Cruz. All 3 are listed in the same tier here. I'm looking more for short term production, next 2 seasons, than long-term. I like the idea of Bridgewater having an off-season to work with Patterson, who I can still see as the biggest upside of the 3 WRs I'm looking at. But Robinson is in a similar situation with what will be a 2nd year QB.

I'd also like to be convinced Cruz doesn't easily outperform a WR3 as Eli enters the 2nd year in this new offensive system and now has a legit go-to receiver in Beckham. Maybe that offense, 18th right now in yards/game can be a top 10 offense again next season.

Edited by ryno1980
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Assuming that he makes a full comeback, Robinson is a top 25 WR for me. I would comfortably take his remaining career over the likes of T Williams, Austin, Garcon, Wright, Sanders, and Adams. Those guys are alternatively has-beens, never-weres (Austin, Williams), situation-dependent mediocrities (Garcon, Wright, Sanders), and/or inferior rookies with thinner NFL resumes (Adams).

Some of the objective measures like the phenom index loved Robinson because of what he was able to achieve in college at such a young age, but other metrics-based approaches are likely to put him in the ugly bin because of his measurables (4.60 combine 40) and aspects of his production (few TDs in college, low YPC in the NFL, suspect big play skills). He is and always has been a baller on the field though. We saw glimmers of that this season with him ascending the depth chart and playing reasonably well with an inconsistent rookie QB. The hater narrative is going to be that he was volume-dependent and that he didn't do much of anything besides catch short passes. I'd point out that he's a 21 year old rookie who missed much of training camp and the preseason, played with a suspect QB, and was targeted on lots of screens (hence the shoddy YPR). He had a good year on the balance.

Every player is unique, but IMO there's a little bit of AJ Green and Reggie Wayne in Robinson's game. He may not be quite that good, but he's deceptively athletic with all of the innate skills to play the position. As long as the injury doesn't linger, he's a player I'd feel pretty comfortable buying at WR3 prices. Plenty of upside there and not a whole lot of risk, provided that he can get back and stay back.

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Updated RB rankings. Age as of 11/1/14. Prev shows my August 31 rankings; I also shared my top 12 at the beginning of October. Rankings assume no PPR, 24 starting RBs, about 250 position players rostered.

Tiers mean a lot here - there is quite a large drop from #6 (Lacy) to #10 (Ellington), and not that all huge a drop from #10 to #39 (West).

These rankings are a bit less polished than my offseason ones, which means that an additional 30 minutes of work on them would probably cause more changes now than would did then.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

1 1 LeVeon Bell PIT 22.7 (8)

2 2 LeSean McCoy PHI 26.3 (1)

2 3 DeMarco Murray DAL 26.7 (6)

2 4 Jamaal Charles KC 27.9 (2)

2 5 Giovani Bernard CIN 23.0 (5)

2 6 Eddie Lacy GB 24.4 (3)

3 7 Matt Forte CHI 28.9 (10)

3 8 Marshawn Lynch SEA 28.6 (13)

3 9 Arian Foster HOU 28.2 (21)

5 10 Andre Ellington ARI 25.8 (17)

5 11 Alfred Morris WAS 25.9 (12)

5 12 Carlos Hyde SF 23.1 (15)

5 13 Doug Martin TB 25.8 (4)

5 14 Christine Michael SEA 24.0 (14)

5 15 Bishop Sankey TEN 22.1 (20)

5 16 Adrian Peterson MIN 29.6 (9)

5 17 Mark Ingram NO 24.9 (30)

5 18 Tre Mason STL 21.3 (29)

5 19 Jerick McKinnon MIN 22.5 (36)

5 20 Ryan Mathews SD 27.1 (16)

5 21 Montee Ball DEN 23.9 (7)

5 22 Ben Tate CLE 26.2 (24)

5 23 C.J. Spiller BUF 27.3 (11)

5 24 Shane Vereen NE 25.7 (22)

5 25 Trent Richardson IND 24.3 (18)

5 26 Ronnie Hillman DEN 23.2 (60)

6 27 Jeremy Hill CIN 22.0 (28)

6 28 Zac Stacy STL 23.6 (19)

6 29 Rashad Jennings NYG 29.6 (27)

6 30 Ahmad Bradshaw IND 28.7 (61)

6 31 Denard Robinson JAX 24.1 (63)

6 32 Brandon Oliver SD 23.5 (93)

6 33 Chris Ivory NYJ 26.6 (49)

6 34 Lamar Miller MIA 23.6 (38)

6 35 Charles Sims TB 24.1 (41)

6 36 Joique Bell DET 28.3 (31)

6 37 Isaiah Crowell CLE 21.8 (69)

6 38 Justin Forsett BAL 29.1 unr

6 39 Terrance West CLE 23.8 (42)

7 40 Knile Davis KC 23.1 (52)

7 41 Khiry Robinson NO 24.9 (58)

7 42 Frank Gore SF 31.5 (44)

7 43 Reggie Bush DET 29.7 (25)

7 44 Andre Williams NYG 22.2 (46)

7 45 Devonta Freeman ATL 22.6 (35)

7 46 Toby Gerhart JAX 27.6 (23)

7 47 Pierre Thomas NO 29.9 (37)

7 48 Darren McFadden OAK 27.2 (40)

7 49 Jonathan Stewart CAR 27.6 (43)

8 50 Darren Sproles PHI 31.4 (50)

8 51 Stevan Ridley NE 25.8 (33)

8 52 Ray Rice FA 27.8 (26)

8 53 Bernard Pierce BAL 24.9 (34)

8 54 Knowshon Moreno MIA 27.3 (39)

8 55 Fred Jackson BUF 33.7 (54)

8 56 Bryce Brown BUF 23.5 (48)

8 57 Steven Jackson ATL 31.3 (45)

8 58 Chris Johnson NYJ 29.1 (32)

8 59 Benny Cunningham STL 24.3 (62)

8 60 Marcus Lattimore SF 23.0 (47)

8 61 C.J. Anderson DEN 23.7 (59)

8 62 Maurice Jones-Drew OAK 29.6 (51)

9 63 Juwan Thompson DEN 22.5 (86)

9 64 Antone Smith ATL 29.1 unr

9 65 Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL 22.9 (79)

9 66 Latavius Murray OAK 23.7 (67)

9 67 Anthony Dixon BUF 27.1 unr

9 68 Donald Brown SD 27.6 (65)

9 69 Dri Archer PIT 23.2 (57)

9 70 DeAngelo Williams CAR 31.6 (55)

9 71 Bobby Rainey TB 27.1 (84)

9 72 Lance Dunbar DAL 24.8 (53)

9 73 Shonn Greene TEN 29.2 (66)

9 74 Robert Turbin SEA 24.9 (71)

9 75 Roy Helu WAS 25.9 (74)

10 76 Brandon Bolden NE 24.8 (89)

10 77 KaDeem Carey CHI 22.0 (80)

10 78 Storm Johnson JAX 22.3 (97)

10 79 Joseph Randle DAL 22.9 (85)

10 80 Stepfan Taylor ARI 23.4 (87)

10 81 Travaris Cadet NO 25.8 (90)

10 82 Alfred Blue HOU 23.5 (77)

10 83 Danny Woodhead SD 29.9 (56)

10 84 LeGarrette Blount PIT 27.9 (64)

10 85 Chris Polk PHI 24.9 (70)

10 86 Vick Ballard IND 24.3 (101)

10 87 James White NE 22.8 (68)

10 88 DeAnthony Thomas KC 21.8 (73)

10 89 Kendall Hunter SF 25.2 (99)

D Murray, D Robinson, Bradshaw, and McKinnon are guys who I was high on in the offseason, so [insert gloating here]. On the other hand, I was also relatively high on David Wilson, and low on Le'Veon Bell. Robinson and McKinnon could still turn into busts, but their athleticism plus the performance that they've flashed (especially McKinnon) makes them pretty exciting prospects. Bradshaw is the same age as Forte, Lynch, and Foster, and has consistently performed when he's been on the field - this is his 5th straight year averaging over 75 YFS/g, and his YPC has been 4.5 or higher in every season except 2011. Bell looks legit as both a fantasy RB1 and an NFL runner (and pass catcher), and he's 22. I've come around on him.

Young guys have generally moved up the rankings since August, in part from some of them flashing skills but even more from attrition as some of the older win-now guys sliding down the rankings as they've shown that they actually won't help you very much at winning now. That why guys like Alfred Morris and Christine Michael seen their ranking stay stable (or even improve a bit), even though they've both been downgraded slightly in my eyes since the season started.

At first glance, Cleveland's 3 RBs have all been looking pretty good when they've played. But I think is about their strong offensive line than about them having a stacked RB corps. Crowell has jumped up in my rankings to a similar level as West, but West & Tate have basically stayed put in my eyes. (Tate benefits from the team's strong running game, but is hurt by the competition.)

Andre Williams has not looked very good this season, after an apparently strong preseason. It's even more striking after Rashad Jennings lit it up when he was healthy.

Gerhart's struggles might have been due to playing through an injury; he still has a chance to win his job back (or win the job elsewhere next year, if the Jags let him go). Fred Jackson looked good before he got injured, and is worth stashing for his playoff run. Knowshon Moreno has basically had one week of good news amidst a relentlessly bad offseason and season, but I think he's worth an IR stash for next year. I'd bet that Ray Rice has less than a 50% chance of ever playing another snap, but he still has significant upside - if it turns out that he doesn't suck, then his chances of a team eventually being willing to give him another chance are significantly higher. Hillman has won the Denver RB job for now, but it's not clear that the depth chart there is stabilized so Anderson & Thompson are still worth stashing.

Where would everyone put Gurley/Gordon/Davis/Abdullah/Ajayi/Coleman/Yeldon/Duke/etc if they had to guess right now without knowing situations?

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Kelvin Benjamin has relied on a high volume of targets in Carolina's barren receiving corps to get his numbers. His play has been uneven. He's going to need to improve as a receiver. Cooks has put up similar totals (with a couple fewer TDs) with better efficiency stats.

Of course Cooks has better efficiency stats. He plays in NO as a WR2/3 in a much better system, out of the slot a majority of the time and Brees at QB vs. Cam. Benjamin has 7 TDs to his 4 and a YPC of 15.3 to 10.4. Benjamin is playing the role of a WR1 on a significantly worse offense.

None of that is changing anytime soon.

Even if it doesn't, Benjamin is the more impactful fantasy player. He's got more yds and TDs.

To say none of that will change anytime soon is pretty shortsighted as well. All of that could change next year. Things can change very fast in the NFL.

Sure anything can happen, but part of dynasty is trying to "predict" what will happen. I don't see Cam Newton becoming a better passer than Brees any time soon.

For the record I prefer Cooks slightly to Benjamin, but they are fairly interchangeable as prospects.

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Where would everyone put Gurley/Gordon/Davis/Abdullah/Ajayi/Coleman/Yeldon/Duke/etc if they had to guess right now without knowing situations?

If Gurley checks out at the combine (no guarantees, but I like his chances), he'd instantly become my #1 dynasty RB.

the only time I've agreed with this concept is ADP. Is Gurley's potential on par with Peterson's (pre-draft)?

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Where would everyone put Gurley/Gordon/Davis/Abdullah/Ajayi/Coleman/Yeldon/Duke/etc if they had to guess right now without knowing situations?

If Gurley checks out at the combine (no guarantees, but I like his chances), he'd instantly become my #1 dynasty RB.

the only time I've agreed with this concept is ADP. Is Gurley's potential on par with Peterson's (pre-draft)?

It's a different league now vs. when Peterson came out, but I'd say yes.
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Where would everyone put Gurley/Gordon/Davis/Abdullah/Ajayi/Coleman/Yeldon/Duke/etc if they had to guess right now without knowing situations?

If Gurley checks out at the combine (no guarantees, but I like his chances), he'd instantly become my #1 dynasty RB.

the only time I've agreed with this concept is ADP. Is Gurley's potential on par with Peterson's (pre-draft)?

Maybe, but even if not... who else you going to put there right now?

You've got some 27+ year old studs, but Gurley wins there by age.

And the younger guys are a mostly a mess, but if he checks out Gurley wins ahead of Bell, etc on talent IMO.

Always possible he flames out like Stewart or Richardson, but I think it's still a good bet. Pretty curious to see his workout #s.

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  • 1 month later...

Here are my top few tiers at each position. Players within tiers are ordered alphabetically (by first name), not ranked.

RB Tier 1
LeVeon Bell PIT 22.9

RB Tier 2
DeMarco Murray DAL 26.9
Eddie Lacy GB 24.6
Jamaal Charles KC 28.1
LeSean McCoy PHI 26.5

RB Tier 3
Arian Foster HOU 28.4
C.J. Anderson DEN 23.9
Giovani Bernard CIN 23.1
Jeremy Hill CIN 22.2
Mark Ingram NO 25.1
Marshawn Lynch SEA 28.8
Matt Forte CHI 29.1

WR Tier 1

A.J. Green CIN 26.5
Antonio Brown PIT 26.5
Calvin Johnson DET 29.3
Demaryius Thomas DEN 27.1
Dez Bryant DAL 26.2
Julio Jones ATL 26.0
Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 22.2

WR Tier 2
Alshon Jeffery CHI 24.9
Jordy Nelson GB 29.7
T.Y. Hilton IND 25.2

WR Tier 3
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 22.6
Mike Evans TB 21.4
Randall Cobb GB 24.5
Sammy Watkins BUF 21.6

WR Tier 4
Brandin Cooks NO 21.3
Brandon Marshall CHI 30.8
Davante Adams GB 22.1
DeSean Jackson WAS 28.1
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 27.8
Jeremy Maclin PHI 26.7
Josh Gordon CLE 23.8
Kelvin Benjamin CAR 23.9

TE Tier 1
Jimmy Graham NO 28.2
Rob Gronkowski NE 25.7

TE Tier 2
Julius Thomas DEN 26.6
Travis Kelce KC 25.3

TE Tier 3
Eric Ebron DET 21.8
Greg Olsen CAR 29.9
Jordan Cameron CLE 26.5
Jordan Reed WAS 24.5
Ladarius Green SD 24.6
Martellus Bennett CHI 27.9
Tyler Eifert CIN 24.4
Zach Ertz PHI 24.2

QB Tier 1
Andrew Luck IND 25.3

QB Tier 2
Aaron Rodgers GB 31.1

QB Tier 3
Cam Newton CAR 25.7
Russell Wilson SEA 26.2

QB Tier 4
Colin Kaepernick SF 27.2
Drew Brees NO 36.0
Peyton Manning DEN 38.8
Philip Rivers SD 33.1

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Here are my top few tiers at each position. Players within tiers are ordered alphabetically (by first name), not ranked.

RB Tier 1

LeVeon Bell PIT 22.9

RB Tier 2

DeMarco Murray DAL 26.9

Eddie Lacy GB 24.6

Jamaal Charles KC 28.1

LeSean McCoy PHI 26.5

RB Tier 3

Arian Foster HOU 28.4

C.J. Anderson DEN 23.9

Giovani Bernard CIN 23.1

Jeremy Hill CIN 22.2

Mark Ingram NO 25.1

Marshawn Lynch SEA 28.8

Matt Forte CHI 29.1

WR Tier 1

A.J. Green CIN 26.5

Antonio Brown PIT 26.5

Calvin Johnson DET 29.3

Demaryius Thomas DEN 27.1

Dez Bryant DAL 26.2

Julio Jones ATL 26.0

Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 22.2

WR Tier 2

Alshon Jeffery CHI 24.9

Jordy Nelson GB 29.7

T.Y. Hilton IND 25.2

WR Tier 3

DeAndre Hopkins HOU 22.6

Mike Evans TB 21.4

Randall Cobb GB 24.5

Sammy Watkins BUF 21.6

WR Tier 4

Brandin Cooks NO 21.3

Brandon Marshall CHI 30.8

Davante Adams GB 22.1

DeSean Jackson WAS 28.1

Emmanuel Sanders DEN 27.8

Jeremy Maclin PHI 26.7

Josh Gordon CLE 23.8

Kelvin Benjamin CAR 23.9

TE Tier 1

Jimmy Graham NO 28.2

Rob Gronkowski NE 25.7

TE Tier 2

Julius Thomas DEN 26.6

Travis Kelce KC 25.3

TE Tier 3

Eric Ebron DET 21.8

Greg Olsen CAR 29.9

Jordan Cameron CLE 26.5

Jordan Reed WAS 24.5

Ladarius Green SD 24.6

Martellus Bennett CHI 27.9

Tyler Eifert CIN 24.4

Zach Ertz PHI 24.2

QB Tier 1

Andrew Luck IND 25.3

QB Tier 2

Aaron Rodgers GB 31.1

QB Tier 3

Cam Newton CAR 25.7

Russell Wilson SEA 26.2

QB Tier 4

Colin Kaepernick SF 27.2

Drew Brees NO 36.0

Peyton Manning DEN 38.8

Philip Rivers SD 33.1

What odds do you give C.J. Anderson to be the starting running back in Denver Week 1?

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Bernard still that high?

He's been a solid RB2 both seasons (with slightly higher ppg this year). Very good in the passing game. Less likely than the other guys in his tier to have a huge year (he'll probably need a Hill injury for that, or to wait for free agency), but he's also significantly younger than many of them, and less likely to bust than Ingram or Anderson.

What odds do you give C.J. Anderson to be the starting running back in Denver Week 1?

Around 65%. I figure that, averaging across the possibilities, in expectation he has slightly less than 1 season coming as the lead RB on an excellent Peyton Manning offense. That is close to the number of expected RB1 seasons that Lynch, Foster, or Forte has left.

Stubborn on Graham vs. Gronk, I see.

Gronk is my #1 TE, but they're on the same tier.

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Don't see Mason there and I'd imagine he'd be the next back or so. Curious what you think of him? I really think he could break through this year. Very Ray Rice like with his build and low center of gravity. Runs hard, good to great defense, conservative offense... Coach that likes to run a lot and stick with one back (rare today). Good game scripts. I think he's a bit under rated. I'd much rather have him than Gio.

Looking at your list and Gio's ranked at his ceiling. How much opportunity is there with Hill? What's a great year Td wise? 8? Didn't like him last year when he was ranked higher and feel the same this year with him ranked even lower.

Edited by Banger
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Stubborn on Graham vs. Gronk, I see.

As he should be. Stubborn on the alphabet.

lol I got that, I meant that I don't think they should be in the same tier...which to me means you'd trade either straight up for the other. Or more realistically, that if you had the choice you'd send the same offer for either guy and not have a preference.

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Stubborn on Graham vs. Gronk, I see.

As he should be. Stubborn on the alphabet.
lol I got that, I meant that I don't think they should be in the same tier...which to me means you'd trade either straight up for the other. Or more realistically, that if you had the choice you'd send the same offer for either guy and not have a preference.

Ok. I have preferences within a tier, just not enough of one to make a big difference. For example, I'd rather have hill than Ingram, Dez than DT, Benjamin than DeSean. But I'd expect enough other people to reasonably lean the other way and I wouldn't be surprised if in a short period of time, say a month during the season, to start feeling the other way (Benjamin might be a bad example as I'd bump him up a tier).

Would it shock you if by September you start feeling like Graham is worth more than Gronk? It wouldn't surprise me.

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Here are my top few tiers at each position. Players within tiers are ordered alphabetically (by first name), not ranked.

RB Tier 1

LeVeon Bell PIT 22.9

RB Tier 2

DeMarco Murray DAL 26.9

Eddie Lacy GB 24.6

Jamaal Charles KC 28.1

LeSean McCoy PHI 26.5

RB Tier 3

Arian Foster HOU 28.4

C.J. Anderson DEN 23.9

Giovani Bernard CIN 23.1

Jeremy Hill CIN 22.2

Mark Ingram NO 25.1

Marshawn Lynch SEA 28.8

Matt Forte CHI 29.1

WR Tier 1

A.J. Green CIN 26.5

Antonio Brown PIT 26.5

Calvin Johnson DET 29.3

Demaryius Thomas DEN 27.1

Dez Bryant DAL 26.2

Julio Jones ATL 26.0

Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 22.2

WR Tier 2

Alshon Jeffery CHI 24.9

Jordy Nelson GB 29.7

T.Y. Hilton IND 25.2

WR Tier 3

DeAndre Hopkins HOU 22.6

Mike Evans TB 21.4

Randall Cobb GB 24.5

Sammy Watkins BUF 21.6

WR Tier 4

Brandin Cooks NO 21.3

Brandon Marshall CHI 30.8

Davante Adams GB 22.1

DeSean Jackson WAS 28.1

Emmanuel Sanders DEN 27.8

Jeremy Maclin PHI 26.7

Josh Gordon CLE 23.8

Kelvin Benjamin CAR 23.9

TE Tier 1

Jimmy Graham NO 28.2

Rob Gronkowski NE 25.7

TE Tier 2

Julius Thomas DEN 26.6

Travis Kelce KC 25.3

TE Tier 3

Eric Ebron DET 21.8

Greg Olsen CAR 29.9

Jordan Cameron CLE 26.5

Jordan Reed WAS 24.5

Ladarius Green SD 24.6

Martellus Bennett CHI 27.9

Tyler Eifert CIN 24.4

Zach Ertz PHI 24.2

QB Tier 1

Andrew Luck IND 25.3

QB Tier 2

Aaron Rodgers GB 31.1

QB Tier 3

Cam Newton CAR 25.7

Russell Wilson SEA 26.2

QB Tier 4

Colin Kaepernick SF 27.2

Drew Brees NO 36.0

Peyton Manning DEN 38.8

Philip Rivers SD 33.1

What odds do you give C.J. Anderson to be the starting running back in Denver Week 1?

90% (assuming health).

He's already proven he's a lot better than Ball. They've been reluctant to make Hillman the bellcow. And I don't think they're going to spend a high draft pick on anyone given Anderson/Hillman/Ball as a 1-2-3. Any UDFA studs that pop up won't be inserted into the lineup right away.

Who's he going to lose out to?

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Really? Keapernick? And no Matt Ryan? That tier needs to be rethought.

for his ceiling, Kap could be in that tier - I wouldn't, but it's rational.

No Stafford either.

My tiers, with more QBs:

Luck - just might be the top player in dynasty

Rodgers - Top 10 player

Cam - Still one of my favorites, 2014 is his likely floor
Wilson - Despite not liking the Seahawks, Russell is just an awesome dude

Peyton - production for a year?

Stafford - seems like he could be elite but frustrating
Brees - see Peyton
Ryan - top talent all around him

Brady - see Brees/Peyton

Bridgewater - could be the next big thing

Tannehill - could be huge, could be Staffordesque

Kap - potential makes him worthwhile

Rivers

Romo

Ben

Foles

Bortles
Carr

Flacco

RG3

Dalton

Eli
Cutler

Manuel
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As a current Peyton owner with strength at most other positions and no real succession plan currently, I'd be very interested in buying Eli at QB22 prices. Extremely interested. Eli was a completely different guy once OBJ hit the field, and he'll have a full offseason in McAdoo's system. Would expect NY to address the OL, and his weapons are already pretty strong with Washington still developing for 2015.

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Here are my top few tiers at each position. Players within tiers are ordered alphabetically (by first name), not ranked.

RB Tier 1

LeVeon Bell PIT 22.9

RB Tier 2

DeMarco Murray DAL 26.9

Eddie Lacy GB 24.6

Jamaal Charles KC 28.1

LeSean McCoy PHI 26.5

RB Tier 3

Arian Foster HOU 28.4

C.J. Anderson DEN 23.9

Giovani Bernard CIN 23.1

Jeremy Hill CIN 22.2

Mark Ingram NO 25.1

Marshawn Lynch SEA 28.8

Matt Forte CHI 29.1

WR Tier 1

A.J. Green CIN 26.5

Antonio Brown PIT 26.5

Calvin Johnson DET 29.3

Demaryius Thomas DEN 27.1

Dez Bryant DAL 26.2

Julio Jones ATL 26.0

Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 22.2

WR Tier 2

Alshon Jeffery CHI 24.9

Jordy Nelson GB 29.7

T.Y. Hilton IND 25.2

WR Tier 3

DeAndre Hopkins HOU 22.6

Mike Evans TB 21.4

Randall Cobb GB 24.5

Sammy Watkins BUF 21.6

WR Tier 4

Brandin Cooks NO 21.3

Brandon Marshall CHI 30.8

Davante Adams GB 22.1

DeSean Jackson WAS 28.1

Emmanuel Sanders DEN 27.8

Jeremy Maclin PHI 26.7

Josh Gordon CLE 23.8

Kelvin Benjamin CAR 23.9

TE Tier 1

Jimmy Graham NO 28.2

Rob Gronkowski NE 25.7

TE Tier 2

Julius Thomas DEN 26.6

Travis Kelce KC 25.3

TE Tier 3

Eric Ebron DET 21.8

Greg Olsen CAR 29.9

Jordan Cameron CLE 26.5

Jordan Reed WAS 24.5

Ladarius Green SD 24.6

Martellus Bennett CHI 27.9

Tyler Eifert CIN 24.4

Zach Ertz PHI 24.2

QB Tier 1

Andrew Luck IND 25.3

QB Tier 2

Aaron Rodgers GB 31.1

QB Tier 3

Cam Newton CAR 25.7

Russell Wilson SEA 26.2

QB Tier 4

Colin Kaepernick SF 27.2

Drew Brees NO 36.0

Peyton Manning DEN 38.8

Philip Rivers SD 33.1

Curious where you'd slot Percy Harvin since he obviously doesn't make this list. The talent, IMO, hasn't eroded... but the situations and circumstances for him this year were awful. His owners are likely hoping for his release from the Jets.

Harstad is likely freaking out at Percy's omission...

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As a current Peyton owner with strength at most other positions and no real succession plan currently, I'd be very interested in buying Eli at QB22 prices. Extremely interested. Eli was a completely different guy once OBJ hit the field, and he'll have a full offseason in McAdoo's system. Would expect NY to address the OL, and his weapons are already pretty strong with Washington still developing for 2015.

he could be up in the Romo tier. Probably should be in larger leagues. I just don't see him as a good starter in 12 team leagues and don't see him improving much. Sort of a no man's land.

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Curious where you'd slot Percy Harvin since he obviously doesn't make this list. The talent, IMO, hasn't eroded... but the situations and circumstances for him this year were awful. His owners are likely hoping for his release from the Jets.

Harstad is likely freaking out at Percy's omission...

Nah, Harstad's got nothing but love for everything and everyone.

ZWK's rankings go 22 deep. I don't really think it's that crazy to not have Harvin in the top 22. I'm the guy who always says that dynasty rankings are all about pricing risk, and Harvin's risks today are rather substantially different than they were a year from now. He's no longer with Russell Wilson. We don't know where he's going to be playing next season. The talent is still there, but there are plenty of talented players who NFL teams, for one reason or another, decide aren't worth the headache. There's a very real chance that Harvin's not even playing football three years from now.

I'd probably put Harvin in the 18-25 range, personally. So, like I said, not crazy to not have him in the top 22. Nothing but love.

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On tiering: The meaning of a tier break is kind of vague. The way I normally do my rankings, if two players are ranked next to each other but the gap between them is significantly larger than the gap between most players who are back-to-back, then I'll put a tier break in. The gap between the last player in one tier and the top player in the next tier is probably slightly smaller, on average, than the gap between the top player in a tier and the bottom player in the same tier. In this case I didn't do rankings within tiers because I didn't want to take the time (for example) to sort through TE tier 3 (Jordan Reed, Martellus Bennett, etc.) to figure out rankings, and I didn't want to put up rankings that I hadn't put that thought into. But there are still plenty of cases where I have a clear preference between 2 players that I list in the same tier.

On Gronk & Graham: Gronk is pretty clearly ahead of Graham. I suppose I could've put a tier break there.

On Harvin: He just had the worst year of his career on the field, by pretty much whatever metric you want to look at (yards from scrimmage per game, yards per target, yfs per target+carry, yards per pass route run, fantasy points per game, etc.). In NY & Sea he hasn't looked like the elite weapon that he was in Minnesota. Combine that with the headcase risk, and I'd rather have DJax, Adams, etc. I tentatively have him at WR25, near the top of the next tier.

On Mason: In my eyes, he hasn't established himself as the Rams' long-term starter yet. He had an okay but not great season. I have him behind Miller and Hyde, bunched together with Michael, Morris, McKinnon, and some others.

On quarterbacks: Ryan & Stafford are my next 2 after the guys listed. I wasn't sure where to put the tier break there. Kaep has a few things in his favor (compared w. Ryan & Stafford) in terms of fantasy value going forward: more likely to have his WR corps improve, more likely to have an increase in pass attempts, and he has a larger chance of improving as a passer.

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On quarterbacks: Ryan & Stafford are my next 2 after the guys listed. I wasn't sure where to put the tier break there. Kaep has a few things in his favor (compared w. Ryan & Stafford) in terms of fantasy value going forward: more likely to have his WR corps improve, more likely to have an increase in pass attempts, and he has a larger chance of improving as a passer.

Are you saying by losing Boldin to age and Crabtree to FA that SF's WR are likely to improve? I don't know if that's likely. One thing that is pretty definite is that SF's WRs will be worse than ATL and DETs. The only major + is that the new coach whoever it is will probably use Davis more. Kaep has a lot of risk just due to the coaching change. We saw how great Gruden and RG3 got along. Ryan is the most likely of the 3 to still be a QB1 5-7 years from now. I think that's pretty close to a lock, IMO. Ryan's main weakness right now is OL and you could say he's "more likely to have his OL improve" because it's really held him back the past couple years.

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On Mason: In my eyes, he hasn't established himself as the Rams' long-term starter yet. He had an okay but not great season. I have him behind Miller and Hyde, bunched together with Michael, Morris, McKinnon, and some others.

I think this is fair. Once he started getting starter touches, he was around the 15th ranked RB. He looked good at times, but had issues with ball security and being spelled. One thing I've noticed is how little St Louis has been running at the goal line, despite having a weak QB. My expectation is that the QB and OC gets improved this offseason. If that happens and Mason solidifies the starting role think there is a lot of upside here. Mason has the talent. A lot of ifs though.

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If Peyton retires and the rest of the offense stays, where do you rank Brock assuming nobody else comes in?

Is he among Bortles and Carr or is he valued higher, like near Bridgewater?

I'd probably put him in the Bridgewater tier with the receivers in Denver but not sure if I'm biased.

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  • 3 months later...

With the draft in the books, here are my dynasty WR rankings. I am now assuming 0.5 PPR (which is a change from my previous rankings, which were no PPR), 36 starting WRs, and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/15. Prev shows my rankings from last November, and I also posted my top 22 in tiers in January.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

1 1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 22.8 (19)

1 2 Julio Jones ATL 26.6 (5)

1 3 A.J. Green CIN 27.1 (3)

1 4 Dez Bryant DAL 26.8 (4)

1 5 Demaryius Thomas DEN 27.7 (2)

1 6 Calvin Johnson DET 29.9 (1)

1 7 Antonio Brown PIT 27.1 (6)

2 8 Randall Cobb GB 25.1 (11)

2 9 Mike Evans TB 22.0 (13)

2 10 Alshon Jeffery CHI 25.5 (7)

2 11 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 23.2 (15)

2 12 Jordy Nelson GB 30.3 (8)

2 13 Sammy Watkins BUF 22.2 (10)

2 14 Amari Cooper OAK 21.2 unr

2 15 T.Y. Hilton IND 25.8 (9)

3 16 Kevin White CHI 22.2 unr

3 17 Devante Parker MIA 22.6 unr

3 18 Brandin Cooks NO 21.9 (16)

3 19 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 24.6 (17)

4 20 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 28.4 (22)

4 21 Golden Tate DET 27.1 (30)

4 22 Percy Harvin BUF 27.3 (14)

4 23 Nelson Agholor PHI 22.3 unr

4 24 Breshad Perriman BAL 22.0 unr

4 25 DeSean Jackson WAS 28.7 (23)

4 26 Phillip Dorsett IND 22.7 unr

4 27 Keenan Allen SD 23.3 (26)

4 28 Jordan Matthews PHI 23.1 (41)

4 29 Davante Adams GB 22.7 (20)

5 30 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 22.4 unr

5 31 Michael Floyd ARI 25.8 (24)

5 32 Martavis Bryant PIT 23.7 (47)

5 33 Julian Edelman NE 29.3 (53)

5 34 Allen Robinson JAX 22.0 (36)

5 35 Pierre Garcon WAS 29.1 (25)

5 36 Donte Moncrief IND 22.1 (46)

5 37 Brandon Marshall NYJ 31.4 (12)

5 38 Kendall Wright TEN 25.8 (34)

5 39 Cody Latimer DEN 22.9 (44)

5 40 Devin Funchess CAR 21.3 unr

5 41 Jeremy Maclin KC 27.3 (18)

5 42 Devin Smith NYJ 23.5 unr

5 43 Torrey Smith SF 26.6 (37)

5 44 Andre Johnson IND 34.1 (39)

6 45 Marqise Lee JAX 23.8 (42)

6 46 Tyler Lockett SEA 22.9 unr

6 47 Jaelen Strong HOU 21.6 unr

6 48 Brian Quick STL 26.2 (49)

6 49 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 32.0 (40)

6 50 Brandon LaFell NE 28.8 (50)

6 51 Charles Johnson MIN 26.5 unr

6 52 Justin Blackmon JAX 25.6 (45)

6 53 Sammie Coates PIT 22.4 unr

6 54 Josh Gordon CLE 24.4 (21)

6 55 Mike Wallace MIN 29.1 (29)

6 56 Jarvis Landry MIA 22.7 (70)

6 57 Victor Cruz NYG 28.8 (32)

6 58 John Brown ARI 25.4 (56)

6 59 Vincent Jackson TB 32.6 (33)

6 60 Kenny Stills MIA 23.3 (83)

6 61 Roddy White ATL 33.8 (51)

7 62 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 24.4 (28)

7 63 Eric Decker NYJ 28.5 (43)

7 64 Stedman Bailey STL 24.8 (65)

7 65 Paul Richardson SEA 23.4 (54)

7 66 Tavon Austin STL 24.4 (31)

7 67 Steve Johnson SD 29.1 (57)

7 68 Michael Crabtree OAK 28.0 (27)

7 69 Marvin Jones CIN 25.5 (61)

7 70 Justin Hunter TEN 24.3 (38)

7 71 Marques Colston NO 32.2 (59)

7 72 Terrance Williams DAL 25.9 (35)

7 73 Steve Smith BAL 36.4 (48)

8 74 Dwayne Bowe CLE 30.9 (72)

8 75 Doug Baldwin SEA 27.9 (60)

8 76 Chris Conley KC 22.9 unr

8 77 DeAndre Smelter SF 23.7 unr

8 78 Anquan Boldin SF 34.9 (85)

8 79 Rueben Randle NYG 24.3 (52)

8 80 Josh Huff PHI 23.9 (80)

8 81 Danny Amendola NE 29.8 (73)

8 82 Robert Woods BUF 23.4 (74)

8 82 Kenny Britt STL 26.9 (79)

8 83 Andrew Hawkins CLE 29.5 (63)

8 84 Jermaine Kearse SEA 25.6 (82)

8 85 Markus Wheaton PIT 24.5 (64)

8 86 Cecil Shorts HOU 27.7 (55)

8 87 Mohamed Sanu CIN 26.0 (67)

8 88 Aaron Dobson NE 24.2 (75)

8 89 Ty Montgomery GB 22.6 unr

8 90 Malcom Floyd SD 34.0 (69)

Some interesting comparisons:

Phillip Dorsett & Davante Adams are in similar situations, with an elite QBs and a strong WR corps ahead of them. I liked Adams more predraft, but Dorsett was drafted earlier and the receiving situation in Indy looks less stable (Hilton/Fleener/Allen are in the last year of his contracts, Johnson is old, Moncrief is unproven).

Kelly's Eagles look to be a nice place for the team's top WR (as DJax & Maclin showed), and it looks like Nelson Agholor & Jordan Matthews will compete for that role. Agholor has better draft pedigree, but not by much, and Matthews flashed a bit last year, so I could see this going either way.

Davante Adams, Jordan Matthews, Dorial Green-Beckham, Allen Robinson, Cody Latimer, Devin Funchess, Devin Smith, and Marqise Lee are all recent 2nd rounders who haven't established much at the NFL level yet. I like Adams & Matthews the most out of that bunch, mainly because of their teams' passing offenses, followed by DGB because he is a boom-or-bust high-upside type (and was drafted in the early 2nd). Lee is at the bottom of this list because he struggled as a rookie, including continuing to have a drops problem. Some people see a lot more spread among these guys than I do (I've even seen Robinson ahead of guys like Devante Parker), but I don't think we've seen enough from them to warrant those sorts of rankings.

Marshall & Maclin landed in terrible places for their fantasy value. The Jets have a crowded receiving corps and no QB, and Alex Smith is no friend to fantasy WRs. Devin Smith & Chris Conley are hurt somewhat less by those situations, since they're young enough to wait it out.

Miami WRs Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills look like role players to me - a slot guy and a deep threat. I thought they had limited upside even when it just looked like they'd be sharing targets with Cameron & Jennings, and now the Dolphins presumably want Parker to become their go-to receiver.

My current rookie rankings are here, and I've shared various thoughts on the rookie WRs in that thread.

Focusing a little more on the top of the rankings: Beckham is 4 years younger than the rest of the top tier, which more than offsets his "one year wonder" risk and puts him at #1. Calvin Johnson & Antonio Brown are at the bottom of that tier because Calvin is oldest (and may have lost his gap on the field) and Antonio Brown seems most situation-dependent (plus Roethlisberger is getting up there in years, and Pittsburgh is trying to add more WR talent). Cobb is a clear #8 ahead of the rest of the pack (and possibly even deserving of his own tier) because he's the safest bet to put up at least mid-WR2 numbers for the next few years (Rodgers, young, long-term contract). Hilton has fallen to #15 because the Dorsett pick has me worried that he could be gone after this season.

I've put less thought into fine-tuning the bottom of these rankings than the top. The last tier is basically old guys who might be startable this year, and young guys who I can't rule out as prospects yet.

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Good list. The one that I don't think I can get on board with is Golden Tate, but he seems to be pretty overrated everywhere. He did ALL of his damage last year in the games where Calvin was out or gimpy (the games where they tried to play him hurt when they should have just rested him).

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I think you could be a bit more aggro at the top of the rankings with some of the elite young guys. I haven't updated my rankings in a while, but my hunch is that I'd have Evans, Watkins, and K White a little bit higher. If the age argument propels Beckham to #1 then I think it may also push these guys ahead of somebody like Jordy who likely has a short window left. Those types can fall really quickly (look at Fitz and VJax).

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Good list. The one that I don't think I can get on board with is Golden Tate, but he seems to be pretty overrated everywhere. He did ALL of his damage last year in the games where Calvin was out or gimpy (the games where they tried to play him hurt when they should have just rested him).

That might be overstating it a bit. Calvin missed 3 games and was gimpy in 2 others (Detroit's games 4-8). In the other 11 games, Tate had 60/732/1 on 85 targets and 5/30/0 rushing. Scaling that to 16 games yields 124 targets, 87 receptions, 1108 YFS, and 1.5 TDs. The low TD number seems flukish and likely to go up. Where should a 26 year old who put up 16 game scaled totals of 87 receptions, 1108 YFS, and 6 TDs across from Calvin and blew up much bigger when Calvin didn't play be ranked? Maybe not where ZWK has him, but how much lower?

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Here are my top few tiers at each position. Players within tiers are ordered alphabetically (by first name), not ranked.

TE Tier 1

Jimmy Graham NO 28.2

Rob Gronkowski NE 25.7

Wat?

On Gronk & Graham: Gronk is pretty clearly ahead of Graham. I suppose I could've put a tier break there.

nvm

Edited by Run It Up
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I think you could be a bit more aggro at the top of the rankings with some of the elite young guys. I haven't updated my rankings in a while, but my hunch is that I'd have Evans, Watkins, and K White a little bit higher. If the age argument propels Beckham to #1 then I think it may also push these guys ahead of somebody like Jordy who likely has a short window left. Those types can fall really quickly (look at Fitz and VJax).

The difference is that Beckham has already had a season where he produced like Dez, Julio, Jordy, etc. The other young guys haven't. Jordy may only have a few seasons left of production at that level, but guys like Watkins & White haven't even gotten close to that level yet and there's a fairly significant chance that they never will (look at Patterson).

Good list. The one that I don't think I can get on board with is Golden Tate, but he seems to be pretty overrated everywhere. He did ALL of his damage last year in the games where Calvin was out or gimpy (the games where they tried to play him hurt when they should have just rested him).

I can see the case for putting Tate lower on that tier (behind guys like Agholor & Perriman), but I'm pretty confident about putting him on that tier. He was a fantasy WR2 in Seattle in terms of fantasy points per team passing attempt, and then he looked really good in Detroit with more volume (especially when Calvin was out/gimpy, but also not bad when Calvin was healthy as JWB's numbers show).

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What does Antonio Brown have to do to get some respect around here?

He's in tier 1. While I'd agree if you're saying he should be 1 or 2, zwk seems to use tiers but not distinguish within the tier.

IMO, evans, Wright and wallace should be higher but as always, his lists are appreciated.

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Kelvin Benjamin has relied on a high volume of targets in Carolina's barren receiving corps to get his numbers. His play has been uneven. He's going to need to improve as a receiver. Cooks has put up similar totals (with a couple fewer TDs) with better efficiency stats.

Of course Cooks has better efficiency stats. He plays in NO as a WR2/3 in a much better system, out of the slot a majority of the time and Brees at QB vs. Cam. Benjamin has 7 TDs to his 4 and a YPC of 15.3 to 10.4. Benjamin is playing the role of a WR1 on a significantly worse offense.

None of that is changing anytime soon.

Oh, the irony...

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What does Antonio Brown have to do to get some respect around here?

He's in tier 1. While I'd agree if you're saying he should be 1 or 2, zwk seems to use tiers but not distinguish within the tier.

IMO, evans, Wright and wallace should be higher but as always, his lists are appreciated.

To clarify on the tiers: the rankings are in the order that I'd take players. Tier breaks just show where there is a relatively large gap between 2 players that are ranked right next to each other. (I made one post in January which didn't have rankings and only showed my top few tiers; in retrospect it was a mistake for me to do it that way since it's confusing to some people.)

I think that dynasty WR7, close behind Calvin Johnson, is pretty good. "I'm a bit less confident in his talent than I am in Demaryius Thomas's talent" doesn't seem like a grave insult.

Mike Wallace is a guy who I started wondering about just after I posted these rankings, when I was reading through them again. I think you're right that he's too low, but I'm not sure by how much. They're saying he's the Z in Norv Turner's offense, with Charles Johnson playing the X (which was the Josh Gordon / Vincent Jackson spot), which is not a good sign in terms of his upside.

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Mike Wallace is a guy who I started wondering about just after I posted these rankings, when I was reading through them again. I think you're right that he's too low, but I'm not sure by how much. They're saying he's the Z in Norv Turner's offense, with Charles Johnson playing the X (which was the Josh Gordon / Vincent Jackson spot), which is not a good sign in terms of his upside.

Who is saying that Norv Turner is going to use Mike Wallace primarily as the Z WR?

The Dolphins did have Mike Wallace playing the Z which is a role that doesn't suit him as well as the X in my honest opinion. They used Wallace on a lot of shirt range type targets out of the Z and I think this is something that bothered Wallace is that their offense did not play to his strength which is getting behind the defense.

The Z receiver is used more often in motion and some of the shorter routes draggin across the field and not asked to threaten the defense vertically as often. This is a role better suited to Patterson and Wright than it is Mike Wallace who's game is about taking the top off the defense.

The only reason I can see for playing Wallace as the Z is if he has issues getting off of the jam and you want to give him a more clean release. Based off of how he played for the Steelers and when I have watched him, I have not noticed him having trouble with the jam.

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I think you could be a bit more aggro at the top of the rankings with some of the elite young guys. I haven't updated my rankings in a while, but my hunch is that I'd have Evans, Watkins, and K White a little bit higher. If the age argument propels Beckham to #1 then I think it may also push these guys ahead of somebody like Jordy who likely has a short window left. Those types can fall really quickly (look at Fitz and VJax).

The difference is that Beckham has already had a season where he produced like Dez, Julio, Jordy, etc. The other young guys haven't. Jordy may only have a few seasons left of production at that level, but guys like Watkins & White haven't even gotten close to that level yet and there's a fairly significant chance that they never will (look at Patterson).

That's a reasonable take, but all the same I would rank those guys higher.

FWIW, Cooper/White/Watkins are in a different class than Patterson from both a draft slot and quality standpoint.

I would say Perriman is more of a boom-or-bust proposition like Cordarrelle.

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  • ZWK changed the title to ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021)

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