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ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated Oct 2020)


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7 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I realize that Andrew Luck is the prodigal son and all, but there are risks to him beyond just his health.  Namely, that even when he was healthy last year he struggled a fair amount.  There is a non-negligible chance that his career path more closely resembles Matt Stafford's than Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.

I'm not saying it's likely or anything, but it's certainly there.  His career thus far has been the perfect fantasy storm of poor defense and running game leading to lots of passing attempts, again resembling when Matt Stafford was considered a top 3 fantasy QB.  I get the eye test and all that but perception is not necessarily reality.  He now has 1 strong fantasy season in 4 tries and that was the season where Indy led the NFL in pass attempts.  

I don't see either of these changing for a bit, though.  I think Indy is the only team who's defense doesn't have a single starter that they drafted.  And what did they really do to improve their running game this year, other than Oline, which will also help Luck?

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I've been looking over historical TE VBD from the past 30 years. Three patterns jumped out: 1. How top-heavy the position is. A few guys account for a large fraction of all fantasy value. Last ye

Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming PPR, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 3/24/18. Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev 1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.

WR rankings after 4.1 weeks. PPR, start 3 WR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 10/8/20. Prev from my unpublished draft rankings 9/9/20 (which weren't fully up-to-date); my last posted ra

8 minutes ago, matttyl said:

I don't see either of these changing for a bit, though.  I think Indy is the only team who's defense doesn't have a single starter that they drafted.  And what did they really do to improve their running game this year, other than Oline, which will also help Luck?

I agree on that front, but dynasty extends beyond just this year and we have no idea what Indy's defense or running game will look like 2 years from now (especially with all the great backs coming out next year).  Likewise we have no idea what Luck's role will be if those things do improve in the future.  For Aaron Rodgers, the all-time NFL best efficiency was enough to make him a tier 1 QB even when his team was leaning on defense or the run.  So far, Luck's hasn't been, especially in 3 of his 4 seasons.

ETA: In fact, Luck's career path very closely resembles the first few years of Stafford's right now, in both volume and efficiency.  His efficiency falloff and fantasy output (prorating Luck's year out to 16 games) is almost identical to Stafford's after Stafford's big season early in his career.

Again, not saying that Matt Stafford is a likely outcome for him, but it's certainly a possibility that has to be considered beyond just assuming he's the next Aaron Rodgers.  Statistically he's much more similar to the former than the latter so far.

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Now that's a comparison that makes sense to me. They both had absolutely garbage gms. Thankfully (as a Stafford owner) the Lions have moved up in the world and the Colts have set themselves back by doubling down on Grigson. Honestly can't believe he has a job. 

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49 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I realize that Andrew Luck is the prodigal son and all, but there are risks to him beyond just his health.  Namely, that even when he was healthy last year he struggled a fair amount.  There is a non-negligible chance that his career path more closely resembles Matt Stafford's than Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.

Not only is it non-negligible, I'd put it at 25%, if not more.

Fantasy owners tend to give too much weight to small sample sizes, but conversely too little weight to statistically valid sample sizes. Luck has now thrown 2,106 passes in the NFL. Look at the stats from those 2,106 passes compared, not to the career numbers of Stafford and Rodgers, but just to their respective first 4 years as starters:

  Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng  Y/A   AY/A  Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
Luck 1224 2106 58.1 14838 101 4.8 55 2.6 87     7.0       6.8 115 722 6.36 6.15 5.2 10 14 48
Stafford 1114 1863 59.8 12807 80 4.3 54 2.9 75     6.9       6.4 93 674 6.20 5.78 4.8 8 9 34
Rodgers 1346 2054 65.5 17037 131 6.4 37 1.8 93     8.3       8.8 151 949 7.29 7.73 6.8 3 6 71

I dunno about you, but those first two sets of numbers look pretty similar to me ... and certainly neither of them are even on the same plane of existence as those of the HOF shoo-in sitting in Row 3.

If this were 8 games, or a year, or maybe even two years, I'd be perfectly willing to write this off when weighed against what we all knew (or thought we all knew) about Luck coming out of school. But he's thrown over 2,000 NFL passes since then. That's way past the point where we should be falling back on the "next Aaron Rodgers" assumption when the NFL data we have so far are a long way from bearing that out.

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On Bortles: his fantasy stats were built on volume more than on efficiency, and benefited from an extremely unbalanced offense. There was more discussion of this in this thread a few months ago. If I ran an NFL team I'd rather have Carr or Goff as my QB, and in the long run fantasy value tends to follow from NFL value for QBs (except for the fantasy bonus from running).

2 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Sorry, I edited my post and inadvertently left it unclear. I was thinking about the rankings for Brady, Brees, and Palmer.

In retrospect, do you think it was appropriate to have Peyton at QB14 last year? At QB11 two years ago? The cliff came fast for him, just as I expect it will for these other guys, but particularly Brady, plus Brady is facing a 4 game suspension to open his most valuable season remaining.

So, for example, how many QB1 seasons are you projecting for Brady at this point? Do you think more along the lines of ppg than total points, which can mitigate the suspension?

I had Peyton as QB10 three years ago as a 37-year-old, and with perfect hindsight he should've been higher because he had about 200 career VBD left (and was somewhat more valuable than that number, because the VBD was concentrated into the next two years). With perfect hindsight, the QB11 and QB14 rankings at age 38 and 39 were too high.

There are plenty of QBs who can give you production around baseline so they aren't worth that much (except in hope of future upside). There is tons of value in a major difference-maker like Peyton 2013.

With Brady, losing 4 games from the fantasy regular season doesn't hurt that much. He'll still play for about 2/3 of the fantasy regular season plus all of the fantasy playoffs.

 

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I agree on that front, but dynasty extends beyond just this year and we have no idea what Indy's defense or running game will look like 2 years from now (especially with all the great backs coming out next year).  Likewise we have no idea what Luck's role will be if those things do improve in the future.  For Aaron Rodgers, the all-time NFL best efficiency was enough to make him a tier 1 QB even when his team was leaning on defense or the run.  So far, Luck's hasn't been, especially in 3 of his 4 seasons.

And two years from now Rodgers will be almost 35 while Luck will have just turned 29.  Rodgers may be without Nelson, who would be 33 that season anyway.  Lots can change between now and then, but the only thing we'll know for sure is their ages.  That won't change.  Like I said, it's splitting hairs between the two of them - I see Luck as many having more risk, but also more reward and more longevity.

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23 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Comments/questions on this group:

  1. Like others, I'd take both Carr and Bortles ahead of Goff.
  2. How many seasons do you look forward for these rankings? How many QB1 seasons are you projecting they have remaining? They all seem high to varying degrees IMO. Perhaps it would be useful also to comment on how you ranked Peyton at this time last year and at this time two years ago.
  3. I think this is the highest ranking I have seen anywhere for Tyrod. Not disagreeing but interested in your rationale.
  4. Rivers at #22 seems low. In the past 8 seasons, he has had just 1 season outside the top 12 QBs (per PFR scoring), and in his previous season (2013) with Whisenhunt as OC, he was QB6. He has never missed a game, so he is not an injury risk. The team has replaced Floyd with Benjamin, replaced TE Green with rookie Henry, and Allen shouldn't typically miss half a season like he did last year.

Interested in your thoughts on these, ZWK.

As always, I appreciate the time and effort you put into these and appreciate that you share them with the community.

On Rivers, in theory his entire OL shouldn't get hurt again, and I'm still not a big supporter of Melvin Gordon, so Rivers' right arm may be their best mode of moving the offense.

That said, the window's probably closing.  The cliff comes fast whenever it comes.  Rivers may have another 3-4 years and age like Brady/Brees, or he could fall off a cliff at 36.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Not only is it non-negligible, I'd put it at 25%, if not more.

Fantasy owners tend to give too much weight to small sample sizes, but conversely too little weight to statistically valid sample sizes. Luck has now thrown 2,106 passes in the NFL. Look at the stats from those 2,106 passes compared, not to the career numbers of Stafford and Rodgers, but just to their respective first 4 years as starters:

  Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng  Y/A   AY/A  Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
Luck 1224 2106 58.1 14838 101 4.8 55 2.6 87     7.0       6.8 115 722 6.36 6.15 5.2 10 14 48
Stafford 1114 1863 59.8 12807 80 4.3 54 2.9 75     6.9       6.4 93 674 6.20 5.78 4.8 8 9 34
Rodgers 1346 2054 65.5 17037 131 6.4 37 1.8 93     8.3       8.8 151 949 7.29 7.73 6.8 3 6 71

I dunno about you, but those first two sets of numbers look pretty similar to me ... and certainly neither of them are even on the same plane of existence as those of the HOF shoo-in sitting in Row 3.

If this were 8 games, or a year, or maybe even two years, I'd be perfectly willing to write this off when weighed against what we all knew (or thought we all knew) about Luck coming out of school. But he's thrown over 2,000 NFL passes since then. That's way past the point where we should be falling back on the "next Aaron Rodgers" assumption when the NFL data we have so far are a long way from bearing that out.

1,241 out of 2,015 (61.6%) for 13,919 yards (6.9 Y/A) with 97 TDs and 52 INTs, with 130 sacks.  Very, very similar numbers to Luck for the first 4 years of an NFL career - much closer than Stafford's.  That was Tom Brady.

1,110 out of 1,782 (62.3%) for 12,127 yards (6.8 Y/A) with 79 TDs and 53 INTs, with 90 sacks.  I bring this one up because it's down right eerie how similar those numbers are to Stafford's.  Right down to only 4 completion difference, a difference of only 1 in TDs and INTs, and 3 sacks.  This was Drew Brees' first 4 seasons.  Yes, he then became a member of the Saints and started throwing out 4,400-5,400 yard seasons year in and year out.  No, this doesn't mean that I think Stafford is the next Brees.  Just saying that looking at the first 4 seasons of either Brady or Brees didn't tell their stories.  Maybe Rodgers is the anomaly where his best statistical season (2011, and by a lot) came in his first 4 years of starting (after sitting on the bench for 3 years behind Favre, which may be the key here - he didn't "learn on the job").

Maybe Luck will be like Brady and Brees where his best season will be in his 5th or later. 

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1 hour ago, matttyl said:

And two years from now Rodgers will be almost 35 while Luck will have just turned 29.  Rodgers may be without Nelson, who would be 33 that season anyway.  Lots can change between now and then, but the only thing we'll know for sure is their ages.  That won't change.  Like I said, it's splitting hairs between the two of them - I see Luck as many having more risk, but also more reward and more longevity.

No one is debating that you traded Rodgers for a younger QB.  What were discussing is your statement that you traded Rodgers for a younger Rodgers.  There is a non-negligible chance that you traded Rodgers for a younger Stafford.  I'm sure most everyone would prefer 8-10 years of Rodgers over 5-6 years of Rodgers, but how many would prefer 9-10 years of Stafford to 9-6 years of Rodgers?

Regardless, it seems like you've backed off your position some.  You've gone a long ways from "why would Luck be ranked behind Rodgers when he is just a younger Rodgers" to "maybe Luck will turn it on later like Brees or Brady".

That "maybe" is exactly why he's ranked behind Rodgers, to answer your original question.  As is your point about "a lot can change between now and then" because one thing we do know is that Rodgers' insane efficiency allows him to be good regardless of the approach his team takes.  We can't say the same about Luck, and if Indy turns to the run or defense down the line Luck has to make HUGE strides in his efficiency to be a standout fantasy player.  Rodgers put up an all-time fantasy season with only 502 pass attempts.  Luck's current efficiency numbers wouldn't even have him as a top 12 QB if he had 502 attempts in a season.

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17 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

No one is debating that you traded Rodgers for a younger QB.  What were discussing is your statement that you traded Rodgers for a younger Rodgers.  There is a non-negligible chance that you traded Rodgers for a younger Stafford.  I'm sure most everyone would prefer 8-10 years of Rodgers over 5-6 years of Rodgers, but how many would prefer 9-10 years of Stafford to 9-6 years of Rodgers?

Regardless, it seems like you've backed off your position some.  You've gone a long ways from "why would Luck be ranked behind Rodgers when he is just a younger Rodgers" to "maybe Luck will turn it on later like Brees or Brady".

That "maybe" is exactly why he's ranked behind Rodgers, to answer your original question.  As is your point about "a lot can change between now and then" because one thing we do know is that Rodgers' insane efficiency allows him to be good regardless of the approach his team takes.  We can't say the same about Luck, and if Indy turns to the run or defense down the line Luck has to make HUGE strides in his efficiency to be a standout fantasy player.  Rodgers put up an all-time fantasy season with only 502 pass attempts.  Luck's current efficiency numbers wouldn't even have him as a top 12 QB if he had 502 attempts in a season.

Lets not forget that (depending on your scoring system) Luck did have the better fantasy season in 2014 (his last full season) than Rodgers did.  During weeks 1-13 (my league's regular season) he was ~2.5 PPG better, roughly the (non-PPR) PPG difference between Brandon Marshall and Antonio Brown last year. 

So it's not so much "maybe he will turn it on later", it's "maybe he'll do what he already did, but do it more consistently."  I mean he went on a tear of 8 straight 300+ yard passing games, something my league gives a small bonus for.  In his entire career Stafford hasn't put a stretch together even half as long.

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Post-draft tight end rankings. Assuming 0.5 PPR, 12 TE starters, and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/25/16 (where I also had a bit of discussion).

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Rob Gronkowski    NE    27.3    (1)
2    2    Jordan Reed    WAS    26.2    (2)
2    3    Travis Kelce    KC    26.9    (3)
2    4    Tyler Eifert    CIN    26.0    (4)
3    5    Zach Ertz    PHI    25.8    (5)
3    6    Greg Olsen    CAR    31.5    (6)
3    7    Eric Ebron    DET    23.4    (8)
3    8    Ladarius Green    PIT    26.3    (14)
3    9    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    TB    23.9    (9)
3    10    Jimmy Graham    SEA    29.8    (7)
3    11    Coby Fleener    NO    27.9    (16)
4    12    Gary Barnidge    CLE    30.9    (10)
4    13    Hunter Henry    SD    21.7    unr
4    14    Delanie Walker    TEN    32.1    (11)
4    15    Julius Thomas    JAX    28.2    (12)
4    16    Dwayne Allen    IND    26.5    (19)
5    17    Martellus Bennett    NE    29.5    (13)
5    18    Maxx Williams    BAL    22.4    (17)
5    19    Jared Cook    GB    29.4    (37)
5    20    Tyler Higbee    RAM    23.7    unr
5    21    Austin Hooper    ATL    21.8    unr
5    22    Jordan Cameron    MIA    28.1    (18)
5    23    Charles Clay    BUF    27.5    (20)
5    24    Antonio Gates    SD    36.2    (24)
6    25    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    26.8    (22)
6    26    Jace Amaro    NYJ    24.2    (23)
6    27    MyCole Pruitt    MIN    24.4    (25)
6    28    Clive Walford    OAK    24.9    (28)
6    29    Will Tye    NYG    24.8    (21)
6    30    Jason Witten    DAL    34.3    (29)
6    31    Richard Rodgers    GB    24.6    (15)
6    32    Jeff Heuerman    DEN    23.8    (40)
6    33    Seth DeValve    CLE    23.6    unr
6    34    Gavin Escobar    DAL    25.6    (27)
6    35    Zach Miller    CHI    31.9    (32)
6    36    Cameron Brate    TB    25.2    unr
7    37    Josh Hill    NO    26.3    (36)
7    38    Dennis Pitta    BAL    31.2    (31)
7    39    Vance McDonald    SF    26.2    (33)
7    40    Darren Waller    BAL    24.0    unr
7    41    Crockett Gilmore    BAL    24.8    (34)
7    42    Garrett Celek    SF    28.3    unr
7    43    Nick Vannett    SEA    23.5    unr
7    44    Jacob Tamme    ATL    32.5    (35)
7    45    Niles Paul    WAS    27.1    (39)
7    46    Ben Watson    BAL    35.7    (25)
7    47    Vernon Davis    DEN    32.6    (41)
7    48    Mychal Rivera    OAK    26.0    (42)
7    49    Derek Carrier    WAS    26.1    (43)
7    50    Troy Niklas    ARI    24.0    (46)
8    51    Ryan Griffin    HOU    26.6    (44)
8    52    Luke Willson    SEA    26.6    (45)
8    53    Jesse James    PIT    22.2    unr
8    54    Demetrius Harris    KC    25.1    (47)
8    55    Virgil Green    DEN    28.1    (48)
8    56    Tyler Kroft    CIN    23.9    (49)
8    57    C.J. Fiedorowicz    HOU    24.9    (51)
8    58    Larry Donnell    NYG    27.8    (52)

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I like Reed as a player, but is he that much better than the 3-4 guys behind him to mitigate the concussion risks?  I think there is a pretty non-negligible chance that two years from now he's not playing football.  He's had a concussion 4 out of the last 5 years and in the one year he didn't have a concussion, he had a hamstring injury.

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8 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I like Reed as a player, but is he that much better than the 3-4 guys behind him to mitigate the concussion risks?  I think there is a pretty non-negligible chance that two years from now he's not playing football.  He's had a concussion 4 out of the last 5 years and in the one year he didn't have a concussion, he had a hamstring injury.

:goodposting:

I was also mildly surprised to see Kelce above Eifert. Interested to hear the rationale on 2-4. Also:

  • Olsen at #6 seems a bit high. How many more difference making TE seasons are being projected here? (I said difference making to leave open whether that is top 12, top 6, or something else.)
  • Green at #8 seems high. He was unable to establish a role for multiple seasons under multiple HCs and OCs in San Diego. Gates was part of the problem, of course, but not all of it. He also has had concussion problems. Finally, the market really didn't seem to value him very highly.
  • Fleener and Allen both seem low, now that they are divorced and both playing in above average passing offenses.

ZWK, thoughts?

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I personally wouldn't trade Eifert for Kelce or Reed.

 

Ladarius Green seems a lot like the new Jared Cook, but I guess he has a good excuse for modest stat totals in SD being stuck behind Gates.

 

I'm a little bit higher on Hunter Henry. I think he and ASJ are similar in value. Would never trade Henry for Dwayne Allen.

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14 minutes ago, spider321 said:

You should check out that Gurley guy that plays for the Rams sometime.

Gurley's great but doesn't catch many passes and plays for a bad offense.  Elliot plays for a great offense and OL and catches tons of passes.

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9 minutes ago, Dez said:

Gurley's great but doesn't catch many passes and plays for a bad offense.  Elliot plays for a great offense and OL and catches tons of passes.

Gurley caught 37 passes in only 10 games as a sophomore at Georgia.  That's more than Elliott ever caught in a season.

...and full disclosure; I refuse to play in a ppr league, as I feel it is completely asinine.

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8 minutes ago, spider321 said:

Gurley caught 37 passes in only 10 games as a sophomore at Georgia.  That's more than Elliott ever caught in a season.

...and full disclosure; I refuse to play in a ppr league, as I feel it is completely asinine.

I guess you will never play high stakes leagues then because that is all they are full PPR nothing else.

Gurley had 21 catches in 13 games last year at Saint Louis.  Pretty sure I am going to use that info over what he did at Georgia.

Elliot is going to catch passes in that Dallas offense look how many Murray caught a couple years ago.

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By the way I said it could be argued.  That means there can be differing opinions.  No one here is right or wrong just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't make them wrong.  If you want Gurley or Bell or whoever 1st that's your opinion I was stating mine.  I didn't even say I would take him #1 RB I said it could be argued.  I argued for it now I am done people around here are half insane.

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40 minutes ago, Dez said:

Gurley had 21 catches in 13 games last year at Saint Louis.  Pretty sure I am going to use that info over what he did at Georgia.

You mean his rookie season where he was coming off a torn ACL, missed 3 games, and didn't have a rookie QB looking to check down to the RB often?

Pretty sure I am going to go out on a limb and bet that he significantly increases his receptions this season.

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Thanks for the rankings, ZWK. I'm curious to hear thoughts on Ertz. I see him well respected in rankings all over, though in three years he has not produced near the level he's ranked. Is the ranking anticipatory or simply a lack of quality TEs?

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7 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I was also mildly surprised to see Kelce above Eifert. Interested to hear the rationale on 2-4. Also:

  • Olsen at #6 seems a bit high. How many more difference making TE seasons are being projected here? (I said difference making to leave open whether that is top 12, top 6, or something else.)
  • Green at #8 seems high. He was unable to establish a role for multiple seasons under multiple HCs and OCs in San Diego. Gates was part of the problem, of course, but not all of it. He also has had concussion problems. Finally, the market really didn't seem to value him very highly.
  • Fleener and Allen both seem low, now that they are divorced and both playing in above average passing offenses.

ZWK, thoughts?

Interesting that you're higher on Fleener and lower on Green. I see them as relatively similar players, who underperformed on their original team and have now landed in good situations. I think that Green's performance in SD was significantly better than Fleener's in IND, though. Green actually had good numbers when he was on the field (YPT, yards per route run, per game stats when Gates was out), he just had trouble getting playing time behind Gates. Fleener also has the disadvantage of a 37-year-old quarterback, which could make his great situation a short-term thing. I do have them in the same tier, but those factors are enough for Green to have an edge.

Eifert had nice fantasy totals last year but was very TD-reliant. Kelce & Reed have the receiving yardage.

6 hours ago, EBF said:

I personally wouldn't trade Eifert for Kelce or Reed.

 

Ladarius Green seems a lot like the new Jared Cook, but I guess he has a good excuse for modest stat totals in SD being stuck behind Gates.

 

I'm a little bit higher on Hunter Henry. I think he and ASJ are similar in value. Would never trade Henry for Dwayne Allen.

Henry doesn't have great upside, in my eyes. He doesn't have the great athleticism or the history of TD production that I'd want to see.

19 minutes ago, valhallan said:

Thanks for the rankings, ZWK. I'm curious to hear thoughts on Ertz. I see him well respected in rankings all over, though in three years he has not produced near the level he's ranked. Is the ranking anticipatory or simply a lack of quality TEs?

Ertz produced at that level (or better) in terms of yardage last year, and in terms of yards per snap the year before. The TDs haven't been there yet. He'll probably never be an elite TD producer (which is why he's down on tier 3), and there are questions about what might change with the new coaching staff & QB coming to town, but his production so far is mostly a positive sign.

5 hours ago, Dez said:

Elliot = tier 1 RB and you could argue #1 overall dyno RB

Gurley was a better prospect than Elliott (except maybe for the injury, which he recovered well from) and then had a great rookie year in terms of both NFL value and fantasy value. Bell has produced the past two years as both a runner & receiver, with both volume and efficiency. A player would need to be an extremely amazing prospect to get to their level in my ratings straight out of the draft. Maybe Nick Chubb could've done it if he'd stayed healthy (and played at the same level as he has) and then blew up the combine. If you're elevating Elliott based on his situation I think that's a mistake; Romo is old and it's hard to keep a great five-man unit together long-term.

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7 hours ago, ZWK said:

Interesting that you're higher on Fleener and lower on Green. I see them as relatively similar players, who underperformed on their original team and have now landed in good situations. I think that Green's performance in SD was significantly better than Fleener's in IND, though. Green actually had good numbers when he was on the field (YPT, yards per route run, per game stats when Gates was out), he just had trouble getting playing time behind Gates. Fleener also has the disadvantage of a 37-year-old quarterback, which could make his great situation a short-term thing. I do have them in the same tier, but those factors are enough for Green to have an edge.

Eifert had nice fantasy totals last year but was very TD-reliant. Kelce & Reed have the receiving yardage.

Henry doesn't have great upside, in my eyes. He doesn't have the great athleticism or the history of TD production that I'd want to see.

Ertz produced at that level (or better) in terms of yardage last year, and in terms of yards per snap the year before. The TDs haven't been there yet. He'll probably never be an elite TD producer (which is why he's down on tier 3), and there are questions about what might change with the new coaching staff & QB coming to town, but his production so far is mostly a positive sign.

Gurley was a better prospect than Elliott (except maybe for the injury, which he recovered well from) and then had a great rookie year in terms of both NFL value and fantasy value. Bell has produced the past two years as both a runner & receiver, with both volume and efficiency. A player would need to be an extremely amazing prospect to get to their level in my ratings straight out of the draft. Maybe Nick Chubb could've done it if he'd stayed healthy (and played at the same level as he has) and then blew up the combine. If you're elevating Elliott based on his situation I think that's a mistake; Romo is old and it's hard to keep a great five-man unit together long-term.

Wait, how heavily are you weighing Dallas' dominant offensive line in elliot's ranking? How many years do you project that unit be above average to elite? 

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9 hours ago, ZWK said:

Interesting that you're higher on Fleener and lower on Green. I see them as relatively similar players, who underperformed on their original team and have now landed in good situations. I think that Green's performance in SD was significantly better than Fleener's in IND, though. Green actually had good numbers when he was on the field (YPT, yards per route run, per game stats when Gates was out), he just had trouble getting playing time behind Gates. Fleener also has the disadvantage of a 37-year-old quarterback, which could make his great situation a short-term thing. I do have them in the same tier, but those factors are enough for Green to have an edge.

Comments:

  1. Fleener was TE13 in 2013, then TE6 in 2014, then regressed in 2015 when Luck was injured for more than half the season and the Indy passing offense dropped off considerably. It is fair to say he underperformed, but it is also fair to say that he showed good progression until the offense imploded for reasons not much related to Fleener himself.
  2. Green has had injury issues, most notably 3 concussions in the past 2 seasons. Do you make allowance for that?
  3. As a Chargers homer, I have watched every snap Green has played. He has always shown potential, but I do not expect him to fulfill that potential in Pittsburgh, just as he did not fulfill it in San Diego. He had a real opportunity last season, when Gates missed 5 games and played lower snap counts in the games he played, Allen missed half the season, and the Chargers were second in the league in passing attempts. Yet he did not seize the opportunity. IMO it was that combined with his concussion history that led the Chargers to let him walk.
  4. Green signed a 4 year deal for $20M. But his cap hit jumps from $2.4M in 2016 to $6.2M in 2017. While it would cost the Steelers $3.5M in dead money to cut Green after 2016, I have read speculation that it amounts to a 1 year "prove it" deal. Meanwhile, Fleener signed a 5 year deal for $36M, with his first two years entirely guaranteed. Do you make any allowance for how the market appears to value players at the same position, especially for players who sign deals in the same market (same year)?

ETA: Also, can you comment on my question about Olsen?

Edited by Just Win Baby
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I don't think I necessarily agree that Fleener and Green stepped into similarly good fantasy situations.  Pittsburgh's offensive attack is exciting but it hasn't really meant much for the TE in recent years.  We can predict that Green will maybe change that, but it's a guess.  New Orleans seems to lean on their TE much more, even when that TE is a mediocre one, like a 35 year old Benjamin Watson who just put together pretty darn good fantasy numbers last year.  I think most people are expecting at least the same out of Fleener, if not more. 

Obviously this is dynasty and all that changes down the line with Brees' days numbered, but Roethlisberger is no spring chicken and I could certainly see him breaking down at a younger age than Brees with all the injuries he's had.

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On 5/22/2016 at 7:52 AM, maf005 said:

Wait, how heavily are you weighing Dallas' dominant offensive line in elliot's ranking? How many years do you project that unit be above average to elite? 

I expect roughly 2 years of great OL and then 2 years of above average OL. Romo seems likely to give 0-3 years of good QB play (which is about as important for a RB as the OL). All of that is basically irrelevant for Elliott's ranking (because the gap between Gurley at #2 and Johnson at #4 is big enough), though it's obviously relevant in figuring out what price you're willing to pay for him. Elite young RBs often continue to be elite for several more years (see here, and also here), which makes Bell & Gurley a high bar to meet.

On 5/22/2016 at 8:18 AM, Just Win Baby said:

Comments:

  1. Fleener was TE13 in 2013, then TE6 in 2014, then regressed in 2015 when Luck was injured for more than half the season and the Indy passing offense dropped off considerably. It is fair to say he underperformed, but it is also fair to say that he showed good progression until the offense imploded for reasons not much related to Fleener himself.
  2. Green has had injury issues, most notably 3 concussions in the past 2 seasons. Do you make allowance for that?
  3. As a Chargers homer, I have watched every snap Green has played. He has always shown potential, but I do not expect him to fulfill that potential in Pittsburgh, just as he did not fulfill it in San Diego. He had a real opportunity last season, when Gates missed 5 games and played lower snap counts in the games he played, Allen missed half the season, and the Chargers were second in the league in passing attempts. Yet he did not seize the opportunity. IMO it was that combined with his concussion history that led the Chargers to let him walk.
  4. Green signed a 4 year deal for $20M. But his cap hit jumps from $2.4M in 2016 to $6.2M in 2017. While it would cost the Steelers $3.5M in dead money to cut Green after 2016, I have read speculation that it amounts to a 1 year "prove it" deal. Meanwhile, Fleener signed a 5 year deal for $36M, with his first two years entirely guaranteed. Do you make any allowance for how the market appears to value players at the same position, especially for players who sign deals in the same market (same year)?

ETA: Also, can you comment on my question about Olsen?

 

A year ago I had Green as TE11 and Fleener a tier back at TE14, saying that I thought that Fleener was around TE20 on talent but would jump up to TE8 based on situation if I knew for certain that he'd stay in Indy and Allen would leave.

Looking at their situations now, I see New Orleans as a worse landing spot than Indy because of Brees's age. I think that the quarterback is more important than the system for inflating a TE's fantasy value (as evidenced by the fantasy success relative to talent of TEs playing with P Manning, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees). I think that Pittsburgh is a slightly better landing spot because Ben is younger. They haven't used their TE as much as New Orleans, but Heath Miller has had some fantasy success despite not being a top receiving TE (especially in 2012) and they are desperate for targets besides Brown & Bell.

Looking at what we've learned about their talent in the past year, Fleener had a mediocre 2015 season in Indy - the team's troubles make that less informative but it's still a bit of a negative sign. Green had a pretty good season in SD. He finally got a chance to play a few games without Gates, and was on a 72/876/12 pace over 4 games. Their contracts are some evidence in the other direction, which I do pay attention to, but I don't put tons of weight on that given what we've seen from guys like Robert Meachem, John Carlson, Jared Cook, and Eddie Royal.

Concussions are a concern, but (like at QB) I'm mostly betting on upside once we get past the top few TEs. Most of the fantasy value for a young TE comes from the chance of breaking out like Reed did, rather than from being a safe bet to stay on the field and string together several low-end TE1 seasons.

I'd peg Olsen for about 2-3 more high-end TE seasons. The fact that he's already done it, repeatedly, counts in his favor more than (for example) Fleener being 3.5 years younger.

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17 minutes ago, humpback said:

I apologize if this has already been asked and answered, but do you have combined rankings?

I don't. It would take a bunch more work.

I did post some combined rookie rankings, which give a sense of how the different positions fit together.

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On May 21, 2016 at 7:14 PM, Just Win Baby said:

:goodposting:

I was also mildly surprised to see Kelce above Eifert. Interested to hear the rationale on 2-4. Also:

  • Olsen at #6 seems a bit high. How many more difference making TE seasons are being projected here? (I said difference making to leave open whether that is top 12, top 6, or something else.)
  • Green at #8 seems high. He was unable to establish a role for multiple seasons under multiple HCs and OCs in San Diego. Gates was part of the problem, of course, but not all of it. He also has had concussion problems. Finally, the market really didn't seem to value him very highly.
  • Fleener and Allen both seem low, now that they are divorced and both playing in above average passing offenses.

ZWK, thoughts?

Regarding Greens concussion issues I saw this...,

 
Green had ankle surgery following the season, but he expects to be ready for training camp in August. He also said reports of concussions keeping him out games last season was misleading. His issues were later diagnosed as sinus problems.
 
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1 hour ago, LBH said:

Regarding Greens concussion issues I saw this...,

 
Green had ankle surgery following the season, but he expects to be ready for training camp in August. He also said reports of concussions keeping him out games last season was misleading. His issues were later diagnosed as sinus problems.
 

To my knowledge, this one sentence is the only place that has ever been reported. I'm skeptical.

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  • 2 months later...

Preseason WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 5/15/16.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    23.8    (1)
2    2    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    24.2    (2)
2    3    Sammy Watkins    BUF    23.2    (3)
2    4    Julio Jones    ATL    27.6    (4)
2    5    Antonio Brown    PIT    28.1    (5)
3    6    Allen Robinson    JAX    23.0    (6)
3    7    Amari Cooper    OAK    22.2    (7)
3    8    A.J. Green    CIN    28.1    (8)
3    9    Alshon Jeffery    CHI    26.5    (9)
4    10    Dez Bryant    DAL    27.8    (10)
4    11    Mike Evans    TB    23.0    (12)
4    12    T.Y. Hilton    IND    26.8    (13)
4    13    Randall Cobb    GB    26.0    (11)
4    14    Brandin Cooks    NO    22.9    (15)
4    15    Keenan Allen    SD    24.3    (19)
5    16    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    28.7    (14)
5    17    Corey Coleman    CLE    22.2    (20)
5    18    Kelvin Benjamin    CAR    25.6    (16)
5    19    Devante Parker    MIA    23.6    (17)
5    20    Josh Doctson    WAS    23.7    (21)
5    21    Kevin White    CHI    24.2    (18)
6    22    Jarvis Landry    MIA    23.8    (25)
6    23    Jeremy Maclin    KC    28.3    (23)
6    24    Laquon Treadwell    MIN    21.2    (24)
6    25    Josh Gordon    CLE    25.4    (31)
6    26    Julian Edelman    NE    30.3    (22)
6    27    Brandon Marshall    NYJ    32.4    (27)
6    28    Jordy Nelson    GB    31.3    (26)
6    29    Donte Moncrief    IND    23.1    (28)
6    30    Jordan Matthews    PHI    24.1    (29)
7    31    Golden Tate    DET    28.1    (32)
7    32    Martavis Bryant    PIT    24.7    (30)
7    33    Doug Baldwin    SEA    28.9    (34)
7    34    Allen Hurns    JAX    24.8    (37)
7    35    Phillip Dorsett    IND    23.7    (40)
7    36    Tyler Lockett    SEA    23.9    (42)
7    37    Leonte Carroo    MIA    22.6    (35)
7    38    Sterling Shepard    NYG    23.5    (47)
7    39    William Fuller    HOU    22.4    (41)
7    40    Devin Funchess    CAR    22.3    (49)
7    41    John Brown    ARI    26.4    (38)
7    42    Michael Thomas    NO    23.5    (46)
7    43    Michael Floyd    ARI    26.8    (39)
7    44    Eric Decker    NYJ    29.5    (36)
7    45    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    33.0    (33)
7    46    Tyler Boyd    CIN    22.8    (50)
7    47    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    29.4    (43)
7    48    DeSean Jackson    WAS    29.7    (44)
7    49    Breshad Perriman    BAL    23.0    (45)
7    50    Davante Adams    GB    23.7    (51)
8    51    Nelson Agholor    PHI    23.3    (52)
8    52    Michael Crabtree    OAK    29.0    (53)
8    53    Travis Benjamin    SD    26.7    (54)
8    54    Stefon Diggs    MIN    22.8    (55)
8    55    Marvin Jones    DET    26.5    (57)
8    56    Sammie Coates    PIT    23.4    (65)
8    57    Dorial Green-Beckham    PHI    23.4    (48)
8    58    Willie Snead    NO    23.9    (56)
8    59    Tajae Sharpe    TEN    21.7    (119)
8    60    Malcolm Mitchell    NE    24.1    (63)
9    61    Terrelle Pryor    CLE    27.2    (114)
9    62    Tavon Austin    RAM    25.5    (59)
9    63    Torrey Smith    SF    27.6    (60)
9    64    Devin Smith    NYJ    24.5    (61)
9    65    Jaelen Strong    HOU    22.6    (72)
9    66    Charles Johnson    MIN    27.5    (98)
9    67    Kendall Wright    TEN    26.8    (58)
9    68    Braxton Miller    HOU    23.8    (62)
9    69    Markus Wheaton    PIT    25.6    (71)
9    70    Bruce Ellington    SF    25.0    unr
9    71    Mike Wallace    BAL    30.1    (73)
9    72    Kenny Britt    RAM    27.9    (70)
10    73    Jared Abbrederis    GB    25.7    (88)
10    74    Paul Richardson    SEA    24.4    (89)
10    75    Kenny Stills    MIA    24.4    (113)
10    76    Chris Hogan    NE    27.9    (69)
10    77    Jeff Janis    GB    25.2    (81)
10    78    Ty Montgomery    GB    23.6    (64)
10    79    Ted Ginn    CAR    31.4    (67)
10    80    Jermaine Kearse    SEA    26.6    (68)
10    81    Justin Blackmon    JAX    26.6    (75)
10    82    Kamar Aiken    BAL    27.3    (76)
10    83    DeAndre Smelter    SF    24.7    (74)
10    84    Chris Conley    KC    23.9    (82)
10    85    Marqise Lee    JAX    24.8    (79)
10    86    Rishard Matthews    TEN    26.9    (86)
10    87    Cody Latimer    DEN    23.9    (80)
10    88    Eli Rogers    PIT    23.7    unr
10    89    Pierre Garcon    WAS    30.1    (66)
10    90    Steve Smith    BAL    37.4    (77)
10    91    Trevor Davis    GB    23.2    (84)
10    92    Mohamed Sanu    ATL    27.0    (107)
10    93    D.J. Foster    NE    22.3    (103)
10    94    Robert Woods    BUF    24.4    (105)
11    95    Victor Cruz    NYG    29.8    (83)
11    96    Rashard Higgins    CLE    21.9    (106)
11    97    Moritz Boehringer    MIN    22.9    (85)
11    98    Vincent Jackson    TB    33.6    (87)
11    99    Quinton Patton    SF    26.1    (101)
11    100    Danny Amendola    NE    30.8    (78)
11    101    Chris Moore    BAL    23.2    (100)
11    102    Terrance Williams    DAL    27.0    (92)
11    103    Brian Quick    RAM    27.2    (94)
11    104    Albert Wilson    KC    24.1    (93)
11    105    Corey Brown    CAR    24.7    (95)
11    106    Brandon Coleman    NO    24.2    (97)
12    107    Pharoh Cooper    RAM    21.5    (117)
12    108    Rueben Randle    PHI    25.3    (90)
12    109    Steve Johnson    SD    30.1    (91)
12    110    Marquess Wilson    CHI    24.0    (96)
12    111    Mike Thomas    RAM    22.0    (102)
12    112    Jakeem Grant    MIA    23.8    unr
12    113    Cordarrelle Patterson    MIN    25.5    (104)
12    114    Anquan Boldin    DET    35.9    (99)
12    115    Cecil Shorts    HOU    28.7    (108)
12    116    Eddie Royal    CHI    30.3    (109)
12    117    James Jones    SD    32.4    (110)
12    118    Rod Streater    KC    28.6    (111)
12    119    Justin Hunter    TEN    25.3    (112)
12    120    Devin Lucien    NE    23.2    (115)
12    121    Ricardo Louis    CLE    22.4    (116)
12    122    Demarcus Robinson    KC    21.9    (118)
12    123    Josh Huff    PHI    24.9    (121)
12    124    Jordan Payton    CLE    23.0    (122)
12    125    Nelson Spruce    RAM    23.7    unr
12    126    Brandon LaFell    CIN    29.8    (124)
12    127    Keyarris Garrett    CAR    23.9    unr

Not a ton of movement since May, other than a few obvious guys emerging (Tajae Sharpe, Terrelle Pryor, etc.). Keenan Allen & Jarvis Landry have moved up a few slots based mainly on upgrading my opinion of their prospects for this year -- I put more stock in other people's opinions for redraft than for dynasty, so this has made my rankings closer to conventional wisdom. Larry Fitzgerald has slid down the rankings for similar reasons -- I'm less high than I was on his redraft prospects, and he's 33 years old.

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Awesome work as always, ZWK.  I think one guy that's jumping out at me as way too low is Michael Floyd... and I'm buying everywhere I can as he seems a bit overlooked.  Former first round pick; last year was set to break out and then had the gruesome hand injury in preseason.  In the second half of last season (final 8 games), Floyd posted 36 receptions for 636 yards and four TDs.  However, that includes the final game against Seattle where Arizona completely rolled over with nothing to play for.  Remove that, and Floyd put up 35 receptions for 620 yards and 4 TDs in 7 games.  I know all about the dangers of pro-rating stats, but that's 80-1400-9 pacing in a high volume offense.  Add to that his competition is arguably getting weaker... Brown's battling concussion issues and has already played clear second fiddle to Floyd down the stretch; Fitzgerald is a HOF talent, but another year older... still gets it done in the slot, but I bet we see Floyd become the true #1 there in Arizona. 

I'd much prefer owning Floyd to Brown right now, who's ahead of him in the ratings.  I'm honestly not sure I'd take most of the guys in the 10-12 spots ahead of him in your rankings over having him on my team.  Some of those guys will make me look stupid, but rookies are dart throws.  I know what Michael Floyd is.  And I don't think I'd be taking a guy like Allen Hurns ahead of him.

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6 hours ago, ZWK said:

4    15    Keenan Allen    SD    24.3    (19)

IMO you have Allen in the right tier, but he should be at or near the top of the tier, not at the bottom.

6 hours ago, ZWK said:

7    36    Tyler Lockett    SEA    23.9    (42)

IMO Lockett should be in your tier 6. I would take him over everyone ahead of him in tier 7 and most of the players you have in tier 6.

You have 127 players ranked and don't list Tyrell Williams in that group. Seems like a glaring omission IMO. He should be in your top 90.

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Tyrell Williams is a player I have never heard of JWB. Care to tell us some more about him?

ZWK I wonder about some of the players in tier 6-8. I tend to agree with JWB that Lockett perhaps deserves to be in tier 6 rather than tier 7. 

Bryant is ranked above all other tier 7 players except for Golden Tate. He will not play this year and his prospects after this will continue to carry risk. I realize that all players in the tier would be considered pretty much the same, just seems to me that Bryant should be at the end of the tier instead of at the top of it.

I like Phillip Dorsett a lot but I would not take him over Lockett either.

Nelson Agholor at the top of tier 8 is something I disagree with as well. You have him ahead of Stefon Diggs and Marvin Jones who maybe should be tier 7. I think Diggs especially should be valued similarly to Lockett, Dorsett, Hurns.

I wonder why Marshall remains in tier 6 while Fitzgerald was dropped into tier 7 as Marhsall is only 8 months younger?

Great work as always. Just a few areas that make me wonder.

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5 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Tyrell Williams is a player I have never heard of JWB. Care to tell us some more about him?

He is expected to be the Chargers #3 WR this season. He was a UDFA the Chargers signed last year, who split time between the active roster and practice squad last season. He is 6'3.5" with great measurables: 39.5" vertical, 10'7" broad jump, 6.53 3 cone, 4.22 shuttle, and 4.38 40. He is 24 years old.

He played at Western Oregon, so there was a definite adjustment period for him in his first season, and he only played 31 offensive snaps. 25 of those snaps were in week 17 against Denver, and he burned Talib for an 80 yard TD in that game.

He did not play in the first preseason game. Here was Rotoworld's report on his play in preseason game #2:

 
Quote

Tyrell Williams caught 4-of-6 targets for 47 yards in the Chargers' second preseason game.

Williams was held out of the preseason opener with "leg tightness," but he saw plenty of snaps Friday night. Williams had a nice 14-yard grab on the sideline to convert a third down in the second quarter, and he hauled in three passes during a successful two-minute drill to close out the first half. With Stevie Johnson (meniscus) out for the year, Williams has a shot to carve out a big role.Aug 19 - 11:35 PM
 

More stuff from training camp reports this year:

 
Quote

With Stevie Johnson out for a while WR Tyrell Williams got the start in his place when the Offense ran 3 wide outs. By the end of practice Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams ran close to the same amount of snaps working out of the slot. Tyrell Williams made a sideline catch on Craig Mager for a big gain. Williams has been impressive ever since Mini-Camp and Dontrelle Inman, who many assumed would be the forth wide receiver on the depth chart, has been relatively quiet throughout camp.

 

 
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The star of the show was WR Tyrell Williams. Williams received almost every snap with the first team Offense, even in 12 Personnel (1 RB/2 WR/2 TE). In 1-on-1 drills he had a stutter step move that got him just enough space to get space on Casey Hayward for a Touchdown. He wasn't done. In red zone drills in 11-on-11s, Williams caught a short dig route with Nick Dzubnar trailing and long-strided his way for another touchdown. He was also matched up with Jason Verrett for a few snaps and had a short completion. Tyrell Williams deserves snaps, I don't care what Wide Receiver the Chargers just signed.

 
 
 
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Wide receiver Tyrell Williams started the day off rough. In walk-throughs Williams had some bad drops and fell down coming out of his route in another drill but once he got in against defenders he showed out. Tyrell Williams stole Brandon Flowers soul on a deep catch for a touchdown. Williams turned on another gear to fly by Flowers and gain enough separation that it didn't look like anyone was 5 yards of him. He also ate Stevie Williams up in the two minute drill for two easy gains to help move the chains. More good things out of #16.

 
 
 
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Tyrell Williams is the real deal; period, the end.  The man some have nicknamed "Tyrell Moss" had his best play in 11-on-11 when he stretched Jason Verrett vertically down the near sideline and split #22 and Addae for a catch on a perfectly thrown jump ball from Rivers.  He has arguably been the story of camp and should provide some big play ability this season.  The man just stands out no matter who is matched up with.

 
 
 
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Tyrell Williams did his best TO impression today looking almost unstoppable catching 3 TDs in practice plus he put a little stank on it too. In 1-on-1 drills today he was matched up with CB Casey Hayward and Hayward ended up getting the incompletion on tight coverage. Williams then rolled his finger around to signal to go again and said something to the effect of "run it back." Hayward didn't hear Williams and was walking back to the sideline when a coach yelled out "Casey, Tyrell wants to go again." Hayward swings around points at his chest and runs to go at it again. The result of that play was a TD that left Hayward standing still. As an encore, to end 11-on-11's Tyrell Williams caught back-to-back TD passes to end the session. That's not even including all the other catches Williams racked up today. Excellent.


He is expected to be #3 behind Allen and Benjamin to open the season. The Chargers will supposedly play fewer 3 WR sets this year, playing more 2 TE sets and also playing sets with a FB (they had no FB on the roster last season but drafted one this year to help Gordon), so it's possible his snaps will be more limited than the Chargers' #3 WR in past seasons. So it's hard to say how much value he will hold this season, barring injuries ahead of him. But there is obvious potential there, and IMO he should be ranked in the top 90 for dynasty, at minimum.

Perhaps more than you wanted to know. :football:

Edited by Just Win Baby
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Thanks JWB. I hadn't given it much thought but I was working from the assumption that Ingram would be the 3rd WR and it is getting hard to rely on Floyd staying healthy.

Sounds like Williams has passed Ingram up on the depth chart though according to your comments. Would Williams play outside ahead of Ingram if/when Floyd misses time?

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25 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Thanks JWB. I hadn't given it much thought but I was working from the assumption that Ingram would be the 3rd WR and it is getting hard to rely on Floyd staying healthy.

Sounds like Williams has passed Ingram up on the depth chart though according to your comments. Would Williams play outside ahead of Ingram if/when Floyd misses time?

First off, it is Inman, not Ingram. (Melvin Ingram is a OLB for the Chargers.) And Floyd is retired. :) 

WR1 is Allen. WR2 is Benjamin. WR3 is Williams. WR4 is Jones. WR5 is Inman, though there is an outside chance another WR could beat him out.

I expect all of Williams' snaps to be outside. Even though I see him as being ahead of Jones on the depth chart, I could see Jones getting snaps ahead of him in the red zone, since Jones thrives there.

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4 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

First off, it is Inman, not Ingram. (Melvin Ingram is a OLB for the Chargers.) And Floyd is retired. :) 

WR1 is Allen. WR2 is Benjamin. WR3 is Williams. WR4 is Jones. WR5 is Inman, though there is an outside chance another WR could beat him out.

I expect all of Williams' snaps to be outside. Even though I see him as being ahead of Jones on the depth chart, I could see Jones getting snaps ahead of him in the red zone, since Jones thrives there.

Yeah shows how close I am following the Chargers (not very). I just remembered Inman had some good games last year, so I thought he might still be in the mix.

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