ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021) (4 Viewers)

The projection formula based on age & recent production (which ranked Landry 3rd) does take into account that Landry's quarterbacks have been Tannehill & Cutler rather than Brady & Manning (since his quarterbacks influenced his recent production). It does not take into account that Landry has changed teams and is now going to have Taylor/Allen/Darnold/whoever as his QB.

Continuing the look at Next Gen Stats player speeds, here are all the RBs with 80+ adjusted touches who never made the weekly top 20 fastest ballcarriers list in the 2016 or 2017 regular seasons. (A reception counts as 1 "adjusted touch", a carry counts as half an "adjusted touch", and a kick or punt return counts as 2 "adjusted touches", because rushing attempts are least likely to involve an opportunity to reach a high speed in open field and returns are most likely.)

Touch  Player
451    Le'Veon Bell
251    LeGarrette Blount
246.5    Duke Johnson
221.5    C.J. Anderson
215.5    Devontae Booker
164    Doug Martin
161    James White
154    Kerwynn Williams
152    Terrance West
140.5    Jacquizz Rodgers
140    Spencer Ware
137.5    Ameer Abdullah
135    DeAndre Washington
133    Robert Kelley
130    Javorius Allen
130    Rex Burkhead
125.5    Rashad Jennings
123.5    Marshawn Lynch
121.5    Tyler Ervin
113.5    Samaje Perine
112    Charcandrick West
112    Shane Vereen
110.5    Adrian Peterson
99    Charles Sims
98    Andre Ellington
94.5    Tim Hightower
94.5    Matt Asiata
90.5    Ryan Mathews
89.5    Wayne Gallman
89.5    Travaris Cadet
88    Bobby Rainey
80    Eddie Lacy

This is mostly a mix of big slow backs (Blount, Kelley, Perine), old washed-up backs (Martin, Peterson, Lacy), and 3rd down backs who apparently rely on shiftiness rather than speed (Duke Johnson, James White, Javorius Allen).

The name at the top of the list is striking - Le'Veon Bell shows that top speed is not required to be a great running back. But given the contents of the rest of the list, I don't think it invalidates the idea that top speed is relevant - it just shows that trends have exceptions, including wildly successful exceptions. And I guess we already knew that Bell had an unusual style which relied on patience and decision-making more than speed; this just highlights how little it relies on speed.

Anderson, Lynch, Ware, and Blount are the other 4 guys on this list who have been pretty effective runners over the past 2 seasons, including in standard rushing situations . Though not effective enough to get a firm hold on a starting job. Anderson just got cut, apparently in favor of also-slow Devontae Booker, and Marshawn Lynch now has competition from also-slow Doug Martin. Blount has headed to Detroit to compete for carries with also-slow Ameer Abdullah, while Spencer Ware's injury opened the door for blazing-fast Kareem Hunt to take over the lead back role. Apparently some teams do not prioritize speed in their RBs, especially in the AFC West.

(Odd story for Kareem Hunt: he had a top 6 speed in each of the first 3 weeks of the season, and then never again cracked the top 20. Possibly he got banged up a few weeks into the season, and that contributed to his drop in production? Although part of the story might just be that, because he failed to break open long plays after his hot start, he didn't have many opportunities after that to accelerate up near his top speed.)

I'm not sure if (or how much) I should hold C.J. Anderson's lack of speed against him. My impression is that he has been an effective runner, and also pretty effective as a receiver when he's been used that way. But his lack of speed, in combination with Denver's lack of confidence in him (under multiple coaches), seem like cause for concern.

Despite the handful of success stories, I am relatively pessimistic about Booker, Abdullah, and Perine after seeing their names on this list. I think that this also counts against Duke Johnson's chances of being an every-down back.

I've continued exploring ways to project WR value almost purely by formula, which I started a couple weeks ago in this post. These are not the numbers that I'd use to draft, but it's still interesting to see what comes out.

For players who have already shown what they can do in the NFL, I can project their remaining career VBD based on their age and recent production (as described earlier; note that this is less accurate for younger players or for players who have a recent change in situation).

For rookies, I can use my generic rookie rankings which project their remaining career VBD based solely on their draft slot (adjusted upwards a bit from the numbers in my spreadsheet, because I calculated VBD using a different & less generous formula for the spreadsheet than I did for the veterans).

For players who have been in the league for 1-3 years, I can start with their generic rookie ranking VBD and adjust it upward or downward based on whether or not they've done anything so far, looking at historical comparisons for other WRs with a similar draft slot who also had no VBD through that many years (or who had some VBD but not tons, or who had tons). I use this number instead of the "age and recent production number" only if it is larger.

Here's what I get. "rook" indicates that the player is a rookie whose estimated value comes from my generic rookie rankings, "prod" indicates that the estimated value comes from the age and recent production method which I described earlier, "draft" indicates a non-rookie whose estimated value is still derived from my generic rookie rankings.

Value  Player         Method   Age
502    DeAndre Hopkins    prod    26.1
408    Michael Thomas    prod    25.3
399    Jarvis Landry    prod    25.6
398    Antonio Brown    prod    30.0
382    Mike Evans    prod    24.9
357    Odell Beckham Jr.    prod    25.7
355    Keenan Allen    prod    26.2
349    Brandin Cooks    prod    24.8
341    Davante Adams    prod    25.5
335    Tyreek Hill    prod    24.3
295    Stefon Diggs    prod    24.6
281    Julio Jones    prod    29.4
253    JuJu Smith-Schuster    prod    21.6
227    Amari Cooper    prod    24.0
209    DJ Moore    rook    21.2
199    Calvin Ridley    rook    23.5
187    Allen Robinson    prod    24.9
183    Sterling Shepard    draft    25.4
183    Adam Thielen    prod    27.9
171    A.J. Green    prod    29.9
167    Doug Baldwin    prod    29.8
159    Corey Davis    draft    23.5
156    Robby Anderson    prod    25.1
156    Sammy Watkins    prod    25.0
155    Mike Williams    draft    23.7
152    John Ross    draft    22.6
148    Will Fuller    draft    24.2
146    Robert Woods    prod    26.2
143    Devin Funchess    prod    24.1
138    Cooper Kupp    draft    25.0
134    Marvin Jones    prod    28.3
130    Courtland Sutton    rook    22.7
124    T.Y. Hilton    prod    28.6
124    Golden Tate    prod    29.9
121    Dante Pettis    rook    22.7
118    Jordan Matthews    prod    26.0
117    Christian Kirk    rook    21.6
115    Nelson Agholor    draft    25.1
113    Anthony Miller    rook    23.7
106    Zay Jones    draft    23.3
105    James Washington    rook    22.2
105    DJ Chark    rook    21.8
104    Corey Coleman    draft    24.0
103    Demaryius Thomas    prod    30.5
100    Curtis Samuel    draft    21.9
99    Jamison Crowder    draft    25.0
99    Alshon Jeffery    prod    28.4
95    Larry Fitzgerald    prod    34.8
94    Allen Hurns    prod    26.6
94    Willie Snead    prod    25.7
90    Josh Doctson    draft    25.6
90    Michael Gallup    rook    22.3
88    Laquon Treadwell    draft    23.0
88    Taywan Taylor    draft    23.3
84    ArDarius Stewart    draft    24.6
83    Carlos Henderson    draft    23.5
83    Martavis Bryant    prod    26.5
81    Chris Godwin    draft    22.3
79    Tre’Quan Smith    rook    
79    Michael Crabtree    prod    30.8
77    Tyrell Williams    prod    26.4
68    DeVante Parker    draft    25.4
67    Dede Westbrook    draft    24.6
66    Kenny Golladay    draft    24.7
62    Chad Williams    draft    23.7
61    Keke Coutee    rook    21.5
60    Tyler Boyd    draft    24.6
59    Rishard Matthews    prod    28.7
59    Antonio Callaway    rook    21.5
58    Kenny Stills    prod    26.2
57    Dez Bryant    prod    29.7
53    Jordy Nelson    prod    33.1
53    Randall Cobb    prod    27.9
52    Amara Darboh    draft    24.4
49    Cameron Meredith    prod    25.8
44    DaeSean Hamilton    rook    23.3
44    Leonte Carroo    draft    24.4
44    Braxton Miller    draft    25.6
38    Marqise Lee    prod    26.6
38    Kelvin Benjamin    prod    27.4
37    Mohamed Sanu    prod    28.8
36    Josh Reynolds    draft    23.4
35    Donte Moncrief    prod    24.9
35    Julian Edelman    prod    32.1
35    Mack Hollins    draft    24.8
32    Emmanuel Sanders    prod    31.2
31    Jermaine Kearse    prod    28.4
28    Josh Malone    draft    22.3
27    Jaleel Scott    rook    23.4
27    Chris Moore    draft    25.0
27    Marquise Goodwin    prod    27.6
26    Chris Hogan    prod    29.7
26    J'Mon Moore    rook    23.1
24    Ryan Switzer    draft    23.7
24    John Brown    prod    28.2
24    Terrelle Pryor    prod    29.0
23    Brandon Marshall    prod    34.2
23    Malcolm Mitchell    draft    25.9
21    Ricardo Louis    draft    24.3
21    Eric Decker    prod    31.3

I'll think this over some more and try to come up with my actual WR rankings within the next few days.

Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming PPR, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 3/24/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    25.8    (1)
1    2    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    26.2    (3)
1    3    Mike Evans    TB    25.0    (2)
2    4    Michael Thomas    NO    25.5    (4)
2    5    Antonio Brown    PIT    30.1    (5)
3    6    Davante Adams    GB    25.7    (6)
3    7    Keenan Allen    LAC    26.3    (8)
3    8    Amari Cooper    OAK    24.2    (9)
3    9    Tyreek Hill    KC    24.5    (11)
3    10    Julio Jones    ATL    29.6    (12)
3    11    Brandin Cooks    RAM    24.9    (7)
3    12    Jarvis Landry    CLE    25.8    (20)
3    13    Allen Robinson    CHI    25.0    (10)
4    14    A.J. Green    CIN    30.1    (13)
4    15    T.Y. Hilton    IND    28.8    (14)
4    16    Sammy Watkins    KC    25.2    (16)
4    17    Stefon Diggs    MIN    24.8    (17)
4    18    JuJu Smith-Schuster    PIT    21.8    (19)
4    19    Adam Thielen    MIN    28.0    (15)
5    20    Josh Gordon    CLE    27.4    (23)
5    21    Corey Davis    TEN    23.6    (18)
5    22    D.J. Moore    CAR    21.4    rook
5    23    Doug Baldwin    SEA    29.9    (21)
6    24    Calvin Ridley    ATL    23.7    rook
6    25    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    30.7    (27)
6    26    Corey Coleman    CLE    24.2    (24)
6    27    DeVante Parker    MIA    25.6    (25)
6    28    Golden Tate    DET    30.1    (28)
6    29    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    28.5    (22)
6    30    Mike Williams    LAC    23.9    (26)
6    31    Will Fuller    HOU    24.4    (30)
6    32    Courtland Sutton    DEN    22.9    rook
7    33    Marvin Jones    DET    28.5    (34)
7    34    John Ross    CIN    22.8    (32)
7    35    Dez Bryant        29.8    (29)
7    36    Cooper Kupp    RAM    25.2    (31)
7    37    Devin Funchess    CAR    24.3    (37)
7    38    Martavis Bryant    OAK    26.7    (45)
7    39    Josh Doctson    WAS    25.7    (33)
7    40    Robby Anderson    NYJ    25.3    (40)
7    41    Sterling Shepard    NYG    25.6    (38)
7    42    Kelvin Benjamin    BUF    27.6    (36)
7    43    Kenny Golladay    DET    24.8    (39)
7    44    Anthony Miller    CHI    23.9    rook
7    45    Michael Gallup    DAL    22.5    rook
7    46    Tre’Quan Smith    NO        rook
7    47    Robert Woods    RAM    26.4    (35)
7    48    Cameron Meredith    NO    25.9    (48)
7    49    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    35.0    (54)
7    50    Christian Kirk    ARI    21.8    rook
8    51    Marqise Lee    JAX    26.8    (41)
8    52    Dante Pettis    SF    22.9    rook
8    53    James Washington    PIT    22.4    rook
8    54    Randall Cobb    GB    28.0    (44)
8    55    Julian Edelman    NE    32.3    (51)
8    56    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    31.4    (43)
8    57    Chris Hogan    NE    29.9    (46)
8    58    Chris Godwin    TB    22.5    (49)
8    59    Nelson Agholor    PHI    25.3    (52)
8    60    Taywan Taylor    TEN    23.5    (47)
8    61    D.J. Chark    JAX    21.9    rook
8    62    Donte Moncrief    JAX    25.1    (50)
8    63    Antonio Callaway    CLE    21.6    rook
8    64    Michael Crabtree    BAL    31.0    (42)
8    65    Pierre Garcon    SF    32.1    (57)
8    66    Jamison Crowder    WAS    25.2    (55)
9    67    John Brown    BAL    28.4    (53)
9    68    Zay Jones    BUF    23.4    (56)
9    69    Curtis Samuel    CAR    22.1    (59)
9    70    Tyler Lockett    SEA    25.9    (60)
9    71    Keelan Cole    JAX    25.4    (62)
9    72    Carlos Henderson    DEN    23.7    (63)
9    73    Marquise Goodwin    SF    27.8    (64)
9    74    Allen Hurns    DAL    26.8    (75)
9    75    Paul Richardson    WAS    26.4    (61)
9    76    Jordan Matthews    NE    26.1    (76)
9    77    Keke Coutee    HOU    21.6    rook
10    78    Kevin White    CHI    26.2    (65)
10    79    J'Mon Moore    GB    23.3    rook
10    80    DaeSean Hamilton    DEN    23.5    rook
10    81    Jordy Nelson    OAK    33.3    (66)
10    82    Terrelle Pryor    NYJ    29.2    (67)
10    83    Tyrell Williams    LAC    26.6    (72)
10    84    Daurice Fountain    IND    22.7    rook
10    85    Jeremy Maclin        30.3    (68)
10    86    Kenny Stills    MIA    26.4    (69)
10    87    DeSean Jackson    TB    31.7    (70)
10    88    Rishard Matthews    TEN    28.9    (71)
10    89    Laquon Treadwell    MIN    23.2    (73)
10    90    Dede Westbrook    JAX    24.8    (74)
10    91    Chad Williams    ARI    23.9    (78)
10    92    Jordan Lasley    BAL    21.8    rook
10    93    Willie Snead    BAL    25.9    (58)
10    94    Ted Ginn    NO    33.4    (77)
10    95    Malcolm Mitchell    NE    26.1    (87)
10    96    Quincy Enunwa    NYJ    26.3    (80)
10    97    ArDarius Stewart    NYJ    24.7    (82)
11    98    Trent Taylor    SF    24.3    (89)
11    99    Deon Cain    IND    22.1    rook
11    100    Equanimeous St. Brown    GB    21.9    rook
11    101    Torrey Smith    CAR    29.6    (81)
11    102    Eric Decker        31.5    (83)
11    103    Taylor Gabriel    CHI    27.6    (84)
11    104    Amara Darboh    SEA    24.6    (107)
11    105    Albert Wilson    MIA    26.1    (85)
11    106    Cole Beasley    DAL    29.3    (126)
11    107    Leonte Carroo    MIA    24.6    (91)
11    108    Josh Malone    CIN    22.4    (88)
11    109    Jaleel Scott    BAL    23.5    rook
11    110    Mike Wallace    PHI    32.1    (86)
11    111    Ryan Grant    IND    27.7    (90)
11    112    Marcell Ateman    OAK    24.0    rook
11    113    Marquez Valdes-Scantling    GB        rook
11    114    Cedrick Wilson    DAL        rook
11    115    Kendall Wright    MIN    28.8    (105)
11    116    Danny Amendola    MIA    32.8    (92)
11    117    Phillip Dorsett    NE    25.7    (94)
11    118    J.J. Nelson    ARI    26.4    (103)
11    119    Cody Latimer    NYG    25.9    unr
11    120    Brandon Marshall        34.4    (96)
11    121    Mohamed Sanu    ATL    29.0    (79)
11    122    Justin Watson    TB        rook
11    123    Bruce Ellington    HOU    27.0    (95)
11    124    Dontrelle Inman        29.6    (93)
11    125    Chris Conley    KC    25.9    (97)
11    126    Breshad Perriman    BAL    25.0    (98)
11    127    Mack Hollins    PHI    25.0    (99)
11    128    Ricardo Louis    CLE    24.4    (102)
11    129    Brice Butler    ARI    28.6    (116)
11    130    Jermaine Kearse    NYJ    28.6    (104)
11    131    Josh Reynolds    RAM    23.5    (100)

Rookies now included, taking into account draft position (as reflected in my generic rookie rankings) and other opinions which I've been covering in my thread on this year's draft class. Note that adding rookies to the rankings causes other players to slide down even if my opinion of them hasn't changed, e.g. I actually moved Pierre Garcon up a few slots relative to the guys that I included in my March rankings, but he has moved down overall because most of the rd 1-3 rookie WRs have jumped into the rankings ahead of him.

The majority of the other changes since March are based on new analyses, including questions like which receivers might have lost a step and how much to downgrade a top WR prospect who doesn't do much in his first season or two. Those analyses are spread over the past few pages of this thread; key posts include:
Corey Davis and highly-drafted rookies with an unimpressive rookie year
Slow WRs, from Next Gen Stats data
Separation, speed, and who might have lost a step
Projecting veteran WRs by formula (with surprisingly high numbers for Jarvis Landry, Antonio Brown, and Larry Fitzgerald)
Extending the by-formula projections to include young prospects

One big set of changes is that many top prospects from recent draft classes (like Corey Davis) have slid down my rankings. Top WR prospects who don't do much in their first year or two have a much worse track record than the full set of top WR prospects. First round receivers, on average, have a strong track record. But when you remove the guys like Beckham and Cooks who already put up strong numbers as rookies, the rest of the first round receivers don't have nearly as strong a track record, on average. Just going by historical averages, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross should be about half as valuable now as they were a year ago. If you just look at Corey Davis as "WR drafted with pick 5 who didn't have fantasy value as a rookie" and compare him to historical WRs drafted around that point with a similar rookie year, and you just look at DJ Moore as "rookie WR drafted with pick 24" and compare him to historical WRs drafted around that point, the comparables for Moore actually have a noticeably better track record. I don't completely buy into that analysis (I have Davis ahead of Moore), but I do put a fair amount of weight on it, which is why they're next to each other on the same tier.

Several guys have changed teams since my March rankings. Martavis Bryant trade is good for him - he has a chance at a Crabtree-sized role in Oakland (instead of being stuck behind AB & JJSS), and the fact that the Raiders were willing to give up pick 79 for him with a 1 year contract (when they could have instead drafted Michael Gallup there) is a good sign about what the NFL thinks of his skills. Also a good move for Cameron Meredith now competing to be Brees's #2 target. Cooks to the Rams is bad for him (going to a weapon-filled offense where Watkins was used sparingly) and also for the other LA receivers. Also bad news for Snead (leaving New Orleans) and Dez Bryant (whose team no longer wanted him).

I'm confused about the difference in ranking between Coleman and Agholor as they seem like really similar players (pedigree, early struggles) except for the fact that Agholor actually has one good season (a bit inflated by TD production). Agholor's ADP is 10 spots higher than Coleman. You have him ranked 33 spots lower. The Eagles picked up his 5th year option this week. I see little motivation to be a Coleman enthusiast given what the offense will look like in 2018 with a limited QB and two better WR on the team.

I enjoy your rankings and like using them as a reference.  That being said, Chris Hogan at 57 is criminally bad...Chris Hogan ranked behind Edelman though...you should be banned from your own thread.  But we are on the same page with that Trequon Smith ranking.

6    24    Calvin Ridley    ATL    23.7    rook

7    36    Cooper Kupp    RAM    25.2    (31)
7    37    Devin Funchess    CAR    24.3    (37)

I feel like the bolded gets ignored too much.

Chris Hogan had a nice half-season while Edelman was out. Edelman has been producing reliably for years. And age/contract situations roughly balance out - Hogan is 2.4 years younger, but he is also going into the last year of his contract (while Edelman has 2 more years) and the Pats seem unlikely to pay up to re-sign Hogan if he earns Paul Richardson money. The main thing working against Edelman is the ACL injury; maybe he won't bounce back from it. I'd rather take a bet on the guy who has averaged 6+ receptions per game each year. I see that there is a lot of disagreement about these guys in redraft rankings across different sites; right now the FBG guys (Tefertiller & Brimacombe) are a lot higher on Edelman than Hogan.

Nelson Agholor's breakout year was not that impressive - he played the slot and averaged about 50 yards per game. The TDs were nice but are unlikely to continue. Picking up the 5th year option isn't that strong an indicator since it's only guaranteed for injury. He is typically not going as a top 36 WR in redraft, which is not a good sign.

Corey Coleman I might be too high on. I did like him a lot coming into the league, and he has been stuck with lousy quarterbacks. But 2 seasons without much production are a bad sign, as I was just writing about. I guess he should be down a tier, closer to Doctson. It is worth noting that things fall off steeply until tier 6 and then flatten out a whole bunch, so the gap between WR26 and WR59 isn't as large as the 23 spots might have you believe.

Is it just the rookies that bump Enunwa down 20 spots? Seems entirely too low.

ZWK said:

Chris Hogan had a nice half-season while Edelman was out. Edelman has been producing reliably for years. And age/contract situations roughly balance out - Hogan is 2.4 years younger, but he is also going into the last year of his contract (while Edelman has 2 more years) and the Pats seem unlikely to pay up to re-sign Hogan if he earns Paul Richardson money. The main thing working against Edelman is the ACL injury; maybe he won't bounce back from it. I'd rather take a bet on the guy who has averaged 6+ receptions per game each year. I see that there is a lot of disagreement about these guys in redraft rankings across different sites; right now the FBG guys (Tefertiller & Brimacombe) are a lot higher on Edelman than Hogan.

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I'm curious, is there any data on ACL recovery for guys on the wrong side of 30 relative to those on the right side?  Edelman turns 32 in three weeks.

ZWK said:

Nelson Agholor's breakout year was not that impressive - he played the slot and averaged about 50 yards per game. The TDs were nice but are unlikely to continue. Picking up the 5th year option isn't that strong an indicator since it's only guaranteed for injury. He is typically not going as a top 36 WR in redraft, which is not a good sign.

Corey Coleman I might be too high on. I did like him a lot coming into the league, and he has been stuck with lousy quarterbacks. But 2 seasons without much production are a bad sign, as I was just writing about. I guess he should be down a tier, closer to Doctson. It is worth noting that things fall off steeply until tier 6 and then flatten out a whole bunch, so the gap between WR26 and WR59 isn't as large as the 23 spots might have you believe.

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I am not that high on Agholor, it just seems the rating is offensive given he is side by side with Taywan Taylor, DJ Chark and guys who don't have defined roles or in a great position to define a role. Agholor at least has one good year and Wentz going for him. I wouldn't take him at his ADP in a startup but I surely buy where you have him. A good "upside" comparable would be Golden Tate, took a step late in the rookie contract, then when it all came together became good.  I would take him as a WR4 for sure. Unless he shows up big this offseason, Coleman is a few months from being Kendall Wright or Markus Wheaton hoping to hang on for another couple years.

thriftyrocker said:

I am not that high on Agholor, it just seems the rating is offensive given he is side by side with Taywan Taylor, DJ Chark and guys who don't have defined roles or in a great position to define a role. Agholor at least has one good year and Wentz going for him. I wouldn't take him at his ADP in a startup but I surely buy where you have him. A good "upside" comparable would be Golden Tate, took a step late in the rookie contract, then when it all came together became good.  I would take him as a WR4 for sure. Unless he shows up big this offseason, Coleman is a few months from being Kendall Wright or Markus Wheaton hoping to hang on for another couple years.

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Coleman is in no worse position after two years than Agholar, and seems he at least has injuries to fall back on as partial reasoning behind deficiencies in production that Agholar did not.  

BINGBING said:

I enjoy your rankings and like using them as a reference.  That being said, Chris Hogan at 57 is criminally bad...Chris Hogan ranked behind Edelman though...you should be banned from your own thread.  But we are on the same page with that Trequon Smith ranking.

Click to expand...

Someone brought Hogan up in the dynasty value thread so he's fresh on my mind... He turns 30 during the season and will be playing with a 40 yo QB on a team with a lot of WR competition. After that, he's going to be a 31 yo FA who has never had more than 680 yards in a season. Where exactly do you think he should be ranked??

-OZ- said:

Is it just the rookies that bump Enunwa down 20 spots? Seems entirely too low.

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Is Enunwa still a thing? What are people expecting from him this year? He's the WR3 behind Pryor and Anderson, right?

SayWhat? said:

Coleman is in no worse position after two years than Agholar, and seems he at least has injuries to fall back on as partial reasoning behind deficiencies in production that Agholar did not.  

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That's true, although a bit of faint praise. Hard to categorize Agholor's issues, as they're not exactly "not good enough" or anything talent based. Will be hard for Coleman to have a good year this year, IMO, with Tyrod, Gordon, and Landry all in place.

FF Ninja said:

Someone brought Hogan up in the dynasty value thread so he's fresh on my mind... He turns 30 during the season and will be playing with a 40 yo QB on a team with a lot of WR competition. After that, he's going to be a 31 yo FA who has never had more than 680 yards in a season. Where exactly do you think he should be ranked??

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His upside is fantasy WR1 for 2 or 3 years and this value does not indicate that upside. He should be closer to Larry. 

I don't see a lot of competition there. He's the only talented outside WR they have.

FF Ninja said:

Someone brought Hogan up in the dynasty value thread so he's fresh on my mind... He turns 30 during the season and will be playing with a 40 yo QB on a team with a lot of WR competition. After that, he's going to be a 31 yo FA who has never had more than 680 yards in a season. Where exactly do you think he should be ranked??

Is Enunwa still a thing? What are people expecting from him this year? He's the WR3 behind Pryor and Anderson, right?

Click to expand...

Enunwa is a wildcard.  Pryor is rancid so could see Quincy getting the 2nd most targets there.  He's still not worth much, but i'd bet on him over Pryor.

thriftyrocker said:

His upside is fantasy WR1 for 2 or 3 years and this value does not indicate that upside. He should be closer to Larry. 

I don't see a lot of competition there. He's the only talented outside WR they have.

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Again, he's on the last year of his contract and his QB is getting to that age where I would not be excited about anyone besides the slot WR or TE.

Also, there's no way his realistic upside is fantasy WR1. Where do you get that idea? Even during his nice 8 game stretch last year, his fantasy value was propped up by a disproportionate amount of TDs. He was on pace for 66/876/10. Assuming a normal TD pace in 2018, that's not WR1 territory. And he was playing 18% of his snaps in the slot which I think boosted his targets. 

ILUVBEER99 said:

Enunwa is a wildcard.  Pryor is rancid so could see Quincy getting the 2nd most targets there.  He's still not worth much, but i'd bet on him over Pryor.

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I'm not sure Pryor is rancid, but what odds would you give Enunwa to outsnap Pryor in 2018? 60/40? And keep in mind, we're setting betting odds for the WR2 of the Jets  :X

Given Pryor's size-speed combo, I'd probably gamble on him over Enunwa in a redraft (think $1 bid or last round flyer), but I don't really want either player in redraft or dynasty. I feel like they're both roster cloggers. If I got one as a throw-in, I'd be looking to flip for a 2019 pick just to free up the roster space.

FF Ninja said:

I'm not sure Pryor is rancid, but what odds would you give Enunwa to outsnap Pryor in 2018? 60/40? And keep in mind, we're setting betting odds for the WR2 of the Jets  :X

Given Pryor's size-speed combo, I'd probably gamble on him over Enunwa in a redraft (think $1 bid or last round flyer), but I don't really want either player in redraft or dynasty. I feel like they're both roster cloggers. If I got one as a throw-in, I'd be looping to flip for a 2019 pick just to free up the roster space.

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I view both of them as flyers.  I'd say 50/50 on who has more snaps between them...provided they are both healthy of course.

Agree they are both roster cloggers though.   If i had either of them i'd move them for any 3rd round rookie pick.

FF Ninja said:

I'm not sure Pryor is rancid, but what odds would you give Enunwa to outsnap Pryor in 2018? 60/40? And keep in mind, we're setting betting odds for the WR2 of the Jets  :X

Given Pryor's size-speed combo, I'd probably gamble on him over Enunwa in a redraft (think $1 bid or last round flyer), but I don't really want either player in redraft or dynasty. I feel like they're both roster cloggers. If I got one as a throw-in, I'd be looking to flip for a 2019 pick just to free up the roster space.

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They're both flyers, I'm more asking about the drop in ranking, more so than others dropped.

FF Ninja said:

Is Enunwa still a thing? What are people expecting from him this year? He's the WR3 behind Pryor and Anderson, right?

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Enunwa is coming off a fairly bad neck injury and had one pretty good season where he benefitted from being a pseudo-TE/slot WR where Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker were banged up for a good part of the season. He was a sixth round pick so he was never likely slated for stardom.

I like some of what I saw in him. He's big, fast and tough but I'm not sure he'll ever have a better season than he did in 2016. I will say that I can't be sure what his role will be this season, perhaps he could develop into McCown's top target but he could be behind Pryor and Anderson as well. Bottom line, is he's appropriately ranked. He's just a semi-talented flier now.

FF Ninja said:

Again, he's on the last year of his contract and his QB is getting to that age where I would not be excited about anyone besides the slot WR or TE.

Also, there's no way his realistic upside is fantasy WR1. Where do you get that idea? Even during his nice 8 game stretch last year, his fantasy value was propped up by a disproportionate amount of TDs. He was on pace for 66/876/10. Assuming a normal TD pace in 2018, that's not WR1 territory. And he was playing 18% of his snaps in the slot which I think boosted his targets. 

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I expect NE to continue to score TDs.

Dear @Joe Bryant,

Please hire ZWK and make him a full-time staff member.  

Thanks,

SitM and many of his grateful fans. 

No, it is better to be able to engage in discussion here about players.  Staff doesn't do that.

thriftyrocker said:

I expect NE to continue to score TDs.

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That's fine, but you shouldn't expect Hogan to catch a TD every 6.6 receptions for a whole season. That won't happen. In fact, I've made this for you. You can now let it go.

FF Ninja said:

That's fine, but you shouldn't expect Hogan to catch a TD every 6.6 receptions for a whole season. That won't happen. In fact, I've made this for you. You can now let it go.

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Appreciate the effort at trolling me. Hogan's first 8 weeks were on pace for 66 catches 876 yards and 10 TDs. If his TD rate drops to 1 in 10 and his usage increases 15% from last year with Cooks gone, he can be a WR1. It would put him in the ballpark of what Cooks (WR12) and Baldwin (WR13) did last year. I've seen too many Austin Collies (1 of them) to think this is impossible.

thriftyrocker said:

Appreciate the effort at trolling me. Hogan's first 8 weeks were on pace for 66 catches 876 yards and 10 TDs. If his TD rate drops to 1 in 10 and his usage increases 15% from last year with Cooks gone, he can be a WR1. It would put him in the ballpark of what Cooks (WR12) and Baldwin (WR13) did last year. I've seen too many Austin Collies (1 of them) to think this is impossible.

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Haha, I'm not trolling you. I feel like you are trolling all of us with this preposterous notion that Hogan has WR1 upside. He definitely does not. And by that I mean realistic. Of course just about anybody could have a fluke Austin Collie year, but if we're counting those types of seasons then there are like 60 players with WR1 upside. I don't think we should use "WR1 upside" quite that liberally. 

FF Ninja said:

Haha, I'm not trolling you. I feel like you are trolling all of us with this preposterous notion that Hogan has WR1 upside. He definitely does not. And by that I mean realistic. Of course just about anybody could have a fluke Austin Collie year, but if we're counting those types of seasons then there are like 60 players with WR1 upside. I don't think we should use "WR1 upside" quite that liberally. 

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I feel the reasoning in my previous message was realistic, but keep going with your schtick, it's hilarious.

stuckinthemuck said:

Dear @Joe Bryant,

Please hire ZWK and make him a full-time staff member.  

Thanks,

SitM and many of his grateful fans. 

Click to expand...

Certainly deserving of this (as are many posters here) but I agree with slapdash.

@Sigmund Bloom for example used to interact with people here all the time but he doesn't do that anymore. 

thriftyrocker said:

I feel the reasoning in my previous message was realistic, but keep going with your schtick, it's hilarious.

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It's not schtick. I'm pretty sure the majority of people feel the same way as me (for example, see ZWK's ranking... another dynasty site has him at WR66*). If anything, Hogan having WR1 upside seems schticky. 

*The highest ranker on that site (currently 5 people ranking him) has him at WR53 and his note says "with Cooks gone, Hogan should post fringe WR2 numbers"

Just because someone disagrees with your contrarian opinion doesn't mean they're trolling you or rolling out schtick. I'm sorry your season hinges on Hogan putting up huge numbers and I had to be the one to break it to you that it's not going to happen, but you don't have to get so grouchy about it.  

FF Ninja said:

Just because someone disagrees with your contrarian opinion doesn't mean they're trolling you or rolling out schtick. I'm sorry your season hinges on Hogan putting up huge numbers and I had to be the one to break it to you that it's not going to happen, but you don't have to get so grouchy about it.  

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I only own him in one league and so far no one has bitten on him for WR5 value. I acknowledge dynasty rankings overlook a 30 year old journeyman WR even if he is on the top offense in the NFL and currently top 100 in redraft value.

thriftyrocker said:

I only own him in one league and so far no one has bitten on him for WR5 value. I acknowledge dynasty rankings overlook a 30 year old journeyman WR even if he is on the top offense in the NFL and currently top 100 in redraft value.

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What makes you think 2018 will be all that different than 2016 when Cooks wasn't with the team? You think Edelman is toast? You think Mitchell/Matthews/Britt will account for less than 60 targets? You have to understand that from the outside looking in, it must take some fuzzy math to think Hogan has WR1 upside with Edelman and Gronk healthy. 

FF Ninja said:

What makes you think 2018 will be all that different than 2016 when Cooks wasn't with the team? You think Edelman is toast? You think Mitchell/Matthews/Britt will account for less than 60 targets? You have to understand that from the outside looking in, it must take some fuzzy math to think Hogan has WR1 upside with Edelman and Gronk healthy. 

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I think Mitchell and Britt are inconsequential. I like Matthews some, but he is a big slot; if he is forced to play outside his impact is less. I don't expect Edelman to be as good as he was. On pace for 66 catches last year, doesn't have to go up much.

I will stand by my WR1 upside assertion, but he doesn't have to meet that metric to have value. I prefer his profile to guys like Moncrief, Stills, Lee, Tyrell  that are above him in dynasty ADP even if you tell me his usage is the same as 2017.

FF Ninja said:

it must take some fuzzy math to think Hogan has WR1 upside with Edelman and Gronk healthy. 

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Not sure I want to jump into this, but when have Edelman and Gronk ever both been healthy?

thriftyrocker said:

I think Mitchell and Britt are inconsequential. I like Matthews some, but he is a big slot; if he is forced to play outside his impact is less. I don't expect Edelman to be as good as he was. On pace for 66 catches last year, doesn't have to go up much.

I will stand by my WR1 upside assertion, but he doesn't have to meet that metric to have value. I prefer his profile to guys like Moncrief, Stills, Lee, Tyrell  that are above him in dynasty ADP even if you tell me his usage is the same as 2017.

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In his best 8 game stretch of his career, he was on pace for less than 70 rec and less than 900 yards. And now he's 30. At least there is hope that Moncrief or Stills will hit 1000 yards before they turn 30. Tyrell already has and Stills already hit 900. And again, he's on his last year of his contract. We don't know where his age 31 season will be. This could easily be his last year of fantasy relevance. 

FreeBaGeL said:

Not sure I want to jump into this, but when have Edelman and Gronk ever both been healthy?

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True, but between the two of them, they aren't going to miss 32 games this year. Basically what Hogan would need to have WR1 upside. I sort of kid, but really, I haven't even done the math to see if Hogan's unsustainable TD rate would've qualified him for top 12 with only 66 rec and 876 yards... but he'd basically need Edelman to miss the entire season again, some extra targets, AND an unsustainable TD rate to be a WR1 this season. I'd put the odds of that at <1%. With a healthy Edelman and Gronk, I'd say WR3 upside (but WR4 projection). Missing one, WR2 upside. If father time catches up to Brady, all bets are off.

Projected role in 2019: 4th on depth chart of middle of the road offense

--------------

Ok, I did the math. Tate was WR12 with 224.5 points. Hogan's extrapolated 16g stat line of 66/876/10 would not have made the cut. He'd be at 213.6 pts. 

FF Ninja said:

True, but between the two of them, they aren't going to miss 32 games this year. Basically what Hogan would need to have WR1 upside. I sort of kid, but really, I haven't even done the math to see if Hogan's unsustainable TD rate would've qualified him for top 12 with only 66 rec and 876 yards... but he'd basically need Edelman to miss the entire season again, some extra targets, AND an unsustainable TD rate to be a WR1 this season. I'd put the odds of that at <1%. With a healthy Edelman and Gronk, I'd say WR3 upside (but WR4 projection). Missing one, WR2 upside. If father time catches up to Brady, all bets are off.

Click to expand...

OK but those numbers came with Brandin Cooks on the squad too, and we know he will miss all 16 games this year.  So if one of Gronk/Edelman miss significant time (which at least one has for basically 4 years in a row now) or if Edelman is not able to return from his injury at age 32, that leaves Hogan as probably a top 2 receiving target on the best offense in football.

Also, if we are trying to cherry pick Hogan's "unsustainable stretch" to extrapolate, why are we including the week before that started in the numbers?  His awesome stretch was weeks 2-8 where his numbers projected out to 73-983-11 which is easily WR1 territory.

All of your other points still stand regarding TD rate and whatnot, and this is really an impossible discussion to nail down as how "realistic" WR upside can be is not in any way definable, but crazier things have happened than a guy who is one very predictable injury away from being the #2 target on the best offense in the league finishing as a top 12 fantasy player at his position.

Slapdash said:

No, it is better to be able to engage in discussion here about players.  Staff doesn't do that.

Click to expand...

 

My issue with Hogan is that I rarely feel that I can trust putting him in the lineup, unless in pretty deep starting lineup leagues.

He has now played in 30 games in New England, including postseason, and he has scored double figure points in PPR format in 15 of them. So half of his games were single digits. Just last season, even with the pace that has been posted about in this discussion, he had 4 of 12 games with just 1 catch, and another with 2. That is fine for best ball leagues, but I don't play in any of those.

FreeBaGeL said:

OK but those numbers came with Brandin Cooks on the squad too, and we know he will miss all 16 games this year.  So if one of Gronk/Edelman miss significant time (which at least one has for basically 4 years in a row now) or if Edelman is not able to return from his injury at age 32, that leaves Hogan as probably a top 2 receiving target on the best offense in football.

Also, if we are trying to cherry pick Hogan's "unsustainable stretch" to extrapolate, why are we including the week before that started in the numbers?  His awesome stretch was weeks 2-8 where his numbers projected out to 73-983-11 which is easily WR1 territory.

All of your other points still stand regarding TD rate and whatnot, and this is really an impossible discussion to nail down as how "realistic" WR upside can be is not in any way definable, but crazier things have happened than a guy who is one very predictable injury away fErom being the #2 target on the best offense in the league finishing as a top 12 fantasy player at his position.

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There's a huge gulf between crazier things have happened and realistic upside.

And while Gronk and/or Edelman missing 2-3 games each may be "very predictable," I don't think the probability of them missing more than a combined 8 games is very high. I'd put it at around 20%. Even if one wants to say it is higher, it is definitely less than 50%... and those are just the odds to get Hogan part of the opportunity he'd need to get the targets to be a WR1. He'd still need Brady to perform at a high level, himself to perform at a high level, an unlikely TD rate, and his own health (missed 7 games last year). Proclaiming he has WR1 upside is a huge reach. You've got better odds of flipping heads 4 times in a row than for the things to fall into place for him to be a WR1.

As for why we're using weeks 1-8... well, Edelman was out week 1 and Hogan played 73 snaps. Why wouldn't we use it?

FF Ninja said:

And while Gronk and/or Edelman missing 2-3 games each may be "very predictable," I don't think the probability of them missing more than a combined 8 games is very high. I'd put it at around 20%. Even if one wants to say it is higher, it is definitely less than 50%.

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20%?  Definitely less than 50%?  Gronk/Edelman have combined for at least 8 missed games 5 of the last 6 seasons.  And that was when one of them wasn't a 32 year old coming off a major knee injury. 

.. and those are just the odds to get Hogan part of the opportunity he'd need to get the targets to be a WR1. He'd still need Brady to perform at a high level, himself to perform at a high level, an unlikely TD rate, and his own health (missed 7 games last year).

Click to expand...

I think we're getting stuck on the unsustainable TD rate thing.  He doesn't necessarily need that anymore because Cooks and his 114 targets are gone.  If Gronk or Edelman get hurt, he can easily improve on his receptions and yards without Cooks in town.

As for why we're using weeks 1-8... well, Edelman was out week 1 and Hogan played 73 snaps. Why wouldn't we use it?

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I thought the whole point when you initially brought that up was to basically say even if we cherry pick out his hot streak it still wasn't on pace for WR1 numbers.  If you want to just say his pace last year wasn't for WR1 numbers then that's fine, but why say "even in his hot stretch last year" if you were just extrapolating the whole season, and not his actual hot stretch (which was weeks 2-8)?  Maybe I misunderstood.

There's a huge gulf between crazier things have happened and realistic upside.

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With Cooks gone, in only games where Edelman/Gronk are not playing, how likely do you think it is that Hogan performs at low WR1 levels?  Now consider that Edelman/Gronk have missed 8-16 games in 5 of the last 6 seasons.  Also remember that these ACL injuries can have a greater impact on these slot WRs who rely on quickness.  Welker was terrible the year after he tore his ACL and his target share went way down.  Granted he had less time to heal than Edelman, but he was also 4 years younger.

But anyway like I said, this is the rub, we have no real way to define "realistic upside".  Does Sammy Watkins have "realistic" WR1 upside?  Mike Williams?  Devin Funchess?

I think it's a lot more likely than not that Hogan does not approach WR1 numbers next year, but if you told me you were from the future and that he did then it wouldn't shock me or anything.

ZWK said:

11    104    Amara Darboh    SEA    24.6    (107)

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Sneaky buy if his market value is this low. Liked him out of Michigan and Seattle stood pat at WR this year despite losing Richardson.

The upside for a WR in the Seahawks offense is probably not great, but I thought he had starter potential as a draft prospect and now there's not much there besides Baldwin and the gadget-y Lockett.

Just Win Baby said:

My issue with Hogan is that I rarely feel that I can trust putting him in the lineup, unless in pretty deep starting lineup leagues.

He has now played in 30 games in New England, including postseason, and he has scored double figure points in PPR format in 15 of them. So half of his games were single digits. Just last season, even with the pace that has been posted about in this discussion, he had 4 of 12 games with just 1 catch, and another with 2. That is fine for best ball leagues, but I don't play in any of those.

Click to expand...

That's a great stat but I think you can make the same statement about a lot of higher profile guys, like Adam Thielen, TY Hilton, Golden Tate. Ocho Cinco disease is real but not limited to guys valued at WR68. Hopefully how the team plans to use Matthews is clearer by redraft time, but I doubt it.

EBF said:

Sneaky buy if his market value is this low. Liked him out of Michigan and Seattle stood pat at WR this year despite losing Richardson.

The upside for a WR in the Seahawks offense is probably not great, but I thought he had starter potential as a draft prospect and now there's not much there besides Baldwin and the gadget-y Lockett.

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Darboh looks the part but his hands are terrible. Kind of important for a WR to be able to catch the ball consistently.

Lockett is more than a gadget player. He put up good numbers when Graham was out of the line up but not much when he was. He gone now.

If you are suggesting that Darboh is a better option than Lockett I really disagree with that idea.

Seattle signed one FA WR and traded for another. 

Enunwa basically just had a bunch of rookies jump in front of him. I think Malcolm Mitchell is the only non-rookie who passed him (with Cooks leaving town). The farther down the rankings a guy is, the more rookies slot in ahead of him.

Darboh I was down on pre-draft, and then he went at pick 106 which is on the edge of where fantasy-relevant WRs come from in the draft. I actually moved him up a fair amount since March, when I noticed that my low ranking was based too much on my own impression and wasn't crediting him enough for his draft position. So now he's within spitting distance of Chad Williams in my rankings (who I thought was a better prospect, and who got drafted 8 picks sooner). Though his rank hasn't changed much, since (like Enunwa and everyone else) he suffered from the rookie influx.

The Patriots' second WR (besides Edelman/Welker) typically hasn't had much fantasy value. The Randy Moss years were the only time that they supported 2 strong fantasy WRs. excluding Moss + Welker + Edelman + Cooks (2017 when Edelman was out), the best season by a Patriots WR since 2007 is 74/966/7 in 16 games (trivia question: whodunnit?). Hogan does have some upside, especially if Edelman doesn't return to form, but it doesn't feel like he's sitting on a goldmine. And the guys around Hogan in my rankings have some upside too, if you just want to focus on an optimistic scenario for each player. Emmanuel Sanders had a strong 2016 with Siemian at the helm; if Keenum keeps his magic then Sanders & Thomas could pick up where Diggs & Thielen left off. Guys like Chris Godwin, James Washington, and Taywan Taylor could turn into stars. Etc.

FreeBaGeL said:

20%?  Definitely less than 50%?  Gronk/Edelman have combined for at least 8 missed games 5 of the last 6 seasons.  And that was when one of them wasn't a 32 year old coming off a major knee injury. 

I think we're getting stuck on the unsustainable TD rate thing.  He doesn't necessarily need that anymore because Cooks and his 114 targets are gone.  If Gronk or Edelman get hurt, he can easily improve on his receptions and yards without Cooks in town.

I thought the whole point when you initially brought that up was to basically say even if we cherry pick out his hot streak it still wasn't on pace for WR1 numbers.  If you want to just say his pace last year wasn't for WR1 numbers then that's fine, but why say "even in his hot stretch last year" if you were just extrapolating the whole season, and not his actual hot stretch (which was weeks 2-8)?  Maybe I misunderstood.

With Cooks gone, in only games where Edelman/Gronk are not playing, how likely do you think it is that Hogan performs at low WR1 levels?  Now consider that Edelman/Gronk have missed 8-16 games in 5 of the last 6 seasons.  Also remember that these ACL injuries can have a greater impact on these slot WRs who rely on quickness.  Welker was terrible the year after he tore his ACL and his target share went way down.  Granted he had less time to heal than Edelman, but he was also 4 years younger.

But anyway like I said, this is the rub, we have no real way to define "realistic upside".  Does Sammy Watkins have "realistic" WR1 upside?  Mike Williams?  Devin Funchess?

I think it's a lot more likely than not that Hogan does not approach WR1 numbers next year, but if you told me you were from the future and that he did then it wouldn't shock me or anything.

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ACL tears are totally unpredictable. Before Edelman missed last season with one, he was averaging 13.75 games played while under a heavy workload. While Gronk has had a heavy workload, he's averaged 12.4 games played. So between the two of them, I expect them to miss 6 games in 2018. As for playing up the ACL's severity, it's 2018, not 1995. ACL surgery with 12 months to heal is practically a routine recovery these days. Wasn't Jordy 30 when he tore his ACL? 

Cooks and his 114 targets are gone but Edelman (and his 159 targets) is back. We're back to banking on Edelman missing a significant amount of time, which I don't think is a safe bet.

Hogan only played 9 games last year. I'm throwing out the random week 14 game (under the assumption he wasn't fully healthy for that game) and only counting the first 8. The point wasn't to cherry pick a hot streak, but to extrapolate his time without Edelman in the fold. The dude played 73 snaps in week 1 without Edelman. It would be crazy to exclude that from the extrapolation.

I think it was kind of miraculous that Welker even played week 1 after tearing his ACL in week 17. But Jordy had a pretty good 2016 after tearing his ACL about the same time of year as Edelman in 2014.

We keep glossing over the fact that Brady is 41 and Hogan himself missed 7 games last year. Hogan has never had more than 61 targets in a season so it's not like he's some sort of ironman. Malcolm Mitchell has had his own injury woes, but he has shown promise when healthy so I'm not even sure Hogan would be the primary beneficiary if Edelman did get hurt. The whole Hogan has WR1 upside is assuming (1) Brady has no drop off at 41, (2) Hogan is healthy, (3) Edelman and/or Gronk miss ~16 games, (4) Hogan performs at a high level, and (5) none of the other WRs step up. Again, I think you are more likely to flip heads 4 times in a row.

I would say that no, none of those players (Watkins, Williams, or Funchess) have realistic WR1 upside but I'm biased because I'm lower on all three of them than the consensus. But you're right - realistic WR1 upside is tricky to define. However, any time you are banking on one player to get hurt for the majority of the season for a guy to have WR1 upside, it instantly becomes unrealistic. If I still had a betting account and I saw a prop bet to bet $1000 to win $100 for Hogan to not be a fantasy WR1 in 2018, I'd see it as a no-brainer.

But this crazy WR1 upside tangent is just one part of the puzzle. He thought Hogan deserved a higher ranking, but beyond the whole "if Edelman is hurt in week 1, just maybe Hogan could be a WR1" is the fact that he'll be a 31 yo FA after this season with a career high of 680 receiving yards. I think ZWK's ranking is quite fair. 

Awesome! You have the updated rb rankings with the rookie backs?

ZWK said:

 the best season by a Patriots WR since 2007 is 74/966/7 in 16 games (trivia question: whodunnit?).

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LaFell?

thriftyrocker said:

That's a great stat but I think you can make the same statement about a lot of higher profile guys, like Adam Thielen, TY Hilton, Golden Tate. Ocho Cinco disease is real but not limited to guys valued at WR68. Hopefully how the team plans to use Matthews is clearer by redraft time, but I doubt it.

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How many starting NFL WRs have no more than 1 catch in 1/3 of their games? Hogan did last season. How many starting NFL WRs have no more than 2 catches in 5/12 of their games? Hogan did last season.

Now substitute starting fantasy WRs and repeat both questions.

I realize that there is a lot of variance in most WR performances, but there aren't many WRs I consider starting in fantasy who so often perform at such a low floor.

Just Win Baby said:

How many starting NFL WRs have no more than 1 catch in 1/3 of their games? Hogan did last season. How many starting NFL WRs have no more than 2 catches in 5/12 of their games? Hogan did last season.

Now substitute starting fantasy WRs and repeat both questions.

I realize that there is a lot of variance in most WR performances, but there aren't many WRs I consider starting in fantasy who so often perform at such a low floor.

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That's cool. TY Hilton had 2 or less catches in a 3rd of his games. If i went through deep threats and 3rd WRs, which was Hogan's role last year, I'm sure I would find a lot of names. Brandin Cooks had 4 games with 2 or less catches. Stuff happens.

If you're going to focus on a small sample size, W1 he also had 3 "rushes" (screens?). 

It's all beside the point because it's a new roster and a new team. If you want to disagree with the assertion that "Chris Hogan could benefit from Brandin Cooks departure" because he was used inconsistently last year, then I guess we just don't see it the same.