ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021) (8 Viewers)

Offseason WR rankings. Assuming PPR, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 9/18/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    27.2    (2)
1    2    Michael Thomas    NO    26.5    (3)
1    3    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    26.8    (1)
1    4    Tyreek Hill    KC    25.5    (6)
2    5    JuJu Smith-Schuster    PIT    22.8    (8)
2    6    Davante Adams    GB    26.7    (9)
2    7    Mike Evans    TB    26.0    (4)
2    8    Keenan Allen    LAC    27.3    (5)
3    9    Stefon Diggs    MIN    25.8    (13)
3    10    Adam Thielen    MIN    29.0    (17)
3    11    Julio Jones    ATL    30.6    (11)
4    12    Antonio Brown    PIT    31.1    (7)
4    13    Brandin Cooks    RAM    25.9    (12)
4    14    D.J. Moore    CAR    22.4    (20)
4    15    Jarvis Landry    CLE    26.8    (10)
4    16    Corey Davis    TEN    24.6    (19)
4    17    Amari Cooper    DAL    25.2    (14)
4    18    Calvin Ridley    ATL    24.7    (25)
4    19    Tyler Boyd    CIN    24.8    (78)
4    20    A.J. Green    CIN    31.1    (16)
4    21    Mike Williams    LAC    24.9    (22)
4    22    T.Y. Hilton    IND    29.8    (18)
4    23    Robert Woods    RAM    27.4    (58)
4    24    Cooper Kupp    RAM    26.2    (37)
4    25    Kenny Golladay    DET    25.8    (29)
5    26    Tyler Lockett    SEA    26.9    (60)
5    27    Courtland Sutton    DEN    23.9    (24)
5    28    Sammy Watkins    KC    26.2    (21)
5    29    Will Fuller    HOU    25.4    (28)
5    30    Allen Robinson    CHI    26.0    (15)
5    31    Chris Godwin    TB    23.5    (32)
5    32    Robby Anderson    NYJ    26.3    (38)
5    33    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    29.5    (27)
5    34    Christian Kirk    ARI    22.8    (45)
5    35    Dede Westbrook    JAX    25.8    (73)
6    36    Marvin Jones    DET    29.5    (31)
6    37    Golden Tate        31.1    (26)
6    38    Doug Baldwin    SEA    30.9    (23)
6    39    Keke Coutee    HOU    22.6    (72)
6    40    Julian Edelman    NE    33.3    (50)
6    41    Sterling Shepard    NYG    26.6    (51)
6    42    Anthony Miller    CHI    24.9    (43)
6    43    Curtis Samuel    CAR    23.1    (81)
6    44    Tre’Quan Smith    NO    23.6    (41)
6    45    Robert Foster    BUF    25.3    unr
6    46    Dante Pettis    SF    23.9    (53)
6    47    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    32.4    (34)
6    48    Marquise Goodwin    SF    28.8    (46)
6    49    Zay Jones    BUF    24.4    (71)
6    50    James Washington    PIT    23.4    (47)
6    51    John Ross    CIN    23.8    (33)
6    52    Devin Funchess        25.3    (39)
6    53    Michael Gallup    DAL    23.5    (57)
6    54    John Brown        29.4    (55)
6    55    Demaryius Thomas        31.7    (30)
7    56    D.J. Chark    JAX    22.9    (67)
7    57    Nelson Agholor    PHI    26.3    (40)
7    58    Antonio Callaway    CLE    22.6    (70)
7    59    DeVante Parker    MIA    26.6    (44)
7    60    Quincy Enunwa    NYJ    27.3    (49)
7    61    Josh Gordon    NE    28.4    (36)
7    62    Kenny Stills    MIA    27.4    (56)
7    63    Albert Wilson    MIA    27.1    (99)
7    64    Josh Doctson    WAS    26.7    (63)
7    65    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    36.0    (42)
7    66    Dez Bryant        30.8    (59)
7    67    Marqise Lee    JAX    27.8    (77)
7    68    Taywan Taylor    TEN    24.5    (64)
7    69    DeSean Jackson    TB    32.7    (62)
8    70    Jamison Crowder        26.2    (66)
8    71    Mohamed Sanu    ATL    30.0    (97)
8    72    Randall Cobb        29.0    (35)
8    73    Michael Crabtree        32.0    (68)
8    74    Tyrell Williams        27.6    (84)
8    75    Geronimo Allison    GB    25.6    (65)
8    76    Marquez Valdes-Scantling    GB    24.9    (94)
8    77    David Moore    SEA    24.6    unr
8    78    Cameron Meredith    NO    26.9    (61)
8    79    Jakeem Grant    MIA    26.8    (156)
8    80    Paul Richardson    WAS    27.4    (82)
8    81    Keelan Cole    JAX    26.4    (48)
8    82    Dontrelle Inman        30.6    (137)
8    83    Rashard Higgins    CLE    24.9    (103)
8    84    Kelvin Benjamin    BUF    28.6    (52)
8    85    Adam Humphries        26.2    unr
8    86    Josh Reynolds    RAM    24.5    (126)
8    87    Taylor Gabriel    CHI    28.6    (91)
8    88    Keith Kirkwood    NO    25.7    unr
8    89    Donte Moncrief        26.1    (75)
8    90    Willie Snead    BAL    26.9    (101)
8    91    Phillip Dorsett        26.7    (69)
8    92    Pierre Garcon        33.1    (74)
8    93    Allen Hurns    DAL    27.8    (76)
8    94    Ted Ginn    NO    34.4    (79)
9    95    Trent Taylor    SF    25.3    (111)
9    96    Laquon Treadwell    MIN    24.2    (92)
9    97    Martavis Bryant    OAK    27.7    (83)
9    98    DaeSean Hamilton    DEN    24.5    (89)
9    99    Kendrick Bourne    SF    24.1    unr
9    100    Ryan Grant        28.7    (80)
9    101    Chris Hogan        30.9    (54)
9    102    Rishard Matthews        29.9    (86)
9    103    Corey Coleman        25.2    (117)
9    104    Chad Williams    ARI    24.9    (88)
9    105    Jordan Lasley    BAL    22.8    (93)
9    106    Equanimeous St. Brown    GB    22.9    (113)
9    107    Brandon Zylstra    MIN    26.4    (115)
9    108    Josh Malone    CIN    23.4    (116)
9    109    Cole Beasley        30.3    (98)
9    110    Jordan Matthews        27.1    (96)
9    111    J'Mon Moore    GB    24.3    (109)
9    112    Deon Cain    IND    23.1    (95)
9    113    Chester Rogers    IND    25.6    (106)
9    114    Danny Amendola    MIA    33.8    (87)
9    115    Trent Sherfield    ARI    23.5    unr
9    116    Jermaine Kearse        29.6    (100)
9    117    Marcell Ateman    OAK    25.0    (143)
9    118    Jordy Nelson    OAK    34.3    (85)
9    119    Deontay Burnett    NYJ    21.9    (200)
9    120    Mack Hollins    PHI    26.0    (125)
9    121    Travis Benjamin    LAC    29.7    (127)

These were influenced by my formulaic WR projections, along with various other considerations.

Surprised to see that Corey Davis actually moved up.  Personally, I would flip Fuller and Coutee.

tangfoot said:

Surprised to see that Corey Davis actually moved up.

Click to expand...

Me too. Part of it is that a few of the guys who were ahead of him moved down (Robinson wasn't that great, aging a year matters more for guys near 30), and Davis & the several guys behind him are packed pretty tightly together. Part of it is that he played decently well last year (reasonably good PFF grade, above baseline fantasy production). Part of it is that my look at historical data showed that it's been fairly common for guys who have baselineish production in their first 2 years to have a good career (e.g., Tim Brown, Steve Smith, Eric Decker).

It still feels like he's a little too high. He should probably at least be behind Cooper.

ZWK said:

(Robinson wasn't that great, aging a year matters more for guys near 30)

Click to expand...

Robinson is 25, and only about 16 months older than Corey Davis.

Green & Hilton are the 30-ish-year-olds who fell behind Davis. Robinson's issue is that his 2015 is looking more and more like an outlier. Over his 5 seasons, his yards per game have gone 55-88-55-inj-58.

Looking at some other dynasty WR rankings, I appear to be higher than they are on Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Dez Bryant, Tyler Boyd, Jakeem Grant, Mike Williams, Jarvis Landry, John Ross, D.J. Chark, D.J. Moore, Dontrelle Inman, Robert Foster, Albert Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Rashard Higgins, and Robby Anderson.

I'm lower than them on DaeSean Hamilton, Josh Reynolds, Jordy Nelson, Deon Cain, Kenny Golladay, James Washington, T.Y. Hilton, Allen Robinson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Michael Crabtree, and Chris Hogan.

I'll say some things about a few of these guys.

I liked James Washington as a prospect but he was awful as a rookie (next-to-last by PFF grades). Sure he has some opportunity if Brown leaves town, but I do not want him over 2nd year guys like Coutee and Tre'Quan who have shown signs of actually being good. DaeSean Hamilton is another guy who was pretty bad last year, plus I didn't particularly like him as a prospect and he wasn't drafted till the 4th round. I guess people are excited about how many 4-yard passes he could catch from Joe Flacco?

DJ Chark is another guy who had an awful rookie year, after entering the league with some promise as a size-speed threat. I have Chark ranked a bit behind James Washington as a slightly worse version of a similar profile; other folks have Washington in the 30s and Chark in the 70s. So compared to them I'm a Chark optimist and a Washington pessimist.

Albert Wilson rated pretty well in my WR prospect formulas when he entered the NFL (despite being a UDFA) and he looked electric last year before getting hurt. Now opportunity could be opening up for him in Miami with Parker and perhaps Amendola candidates to leave town, and potentially a new QB coming in. Jakeem Grant is farther down the depth chart in the same place, as a superfast supersmall WR/returner who started to show some value as a receiver last year.

Tyler Boyd just had a season that looks a lot like a good ol' fashioned third year breakout. His 73 yards per game put him within a few yards of AJ Green, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp. And Cincy has less of a too-many-mouths-to-feed problem than LA. He is also apparently a year younger than I thought he was, which means that he's the same age as guys like Calvin Ridley and Corey Davis.

Offseason RB rankings. Assuming PPR, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 9/3/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Saquon Barkley    NYG    22.6    (3)
2    2    Christian McCaffrey    CAR    23.2    (8)
2    3    Alvin Kamara    NO    24.1    (7)
2    4    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    24.1    (4)
3    5    Melvin Gordon    LAC    26.4    (11)
3    6    Todd Gurley    RAM    25.1    (1)
4    7    LeVeon Bell        27.5    (2)
4    8    Joe Mixon    CIN    23.1    (13)
4    9    Nick Chubb    CLE    23.7    (16)
4    10    David Johnson    ARI    27.7    (5)
4    11    Dalvin Cook    MIN    24.1    (10)
5    12    Leonard Fournette    JAX    24.6    (6)
5    13    Kerryon Johnson    DET    22.2    (23)
5    14    Sony Michel    NE    24.5    (19)
5    15    Kareem Hunt    CLE    24.1    (9)
5    16    James Conner    PIT    24.3    (41)
6    17    Derrick Henry    TEN    25.1    (17)
6    18    Aaron Jones    GB    24.7    (36)
6    19    Rashaad Penny    SEA    23.6    (14)
6    20    Derrius Guice    WAS    22.2    (21)
6    21    Phillip Lindsay    DEN    25.1    (86)
6    22    Devonta Freeman    ATL    27.5    (12)
6    23    Damien Williams    KC    27.4    (105)
6    24    Marlon Mack    IND    23.7    (43)
6    25    Jerick McKinnon    SF    27.3    (28)
6    26    Chris Carson    SEA    25.0    (32)
6    27    Tevin Coleman        26.4    (30)
6    28    Tarik Cohen    CHI    24.1    (44)
7    29    James White    NE    27.6    (46)
7    30    Jordan Howard    CHI    24.8    (15)
7    31    Lamar Miller    HOU    28.4    (26)
7    32    Kenyan Drake    MIA    25.6    (24)
7    33    Nyheim Hines    IND    22.8    (37)
7    34    Ronald Jones II    TB    22.1    (22)
7    35    Matt Breida    SF    24.5    (58)
7    36    Austin Ekeler    LAC    24.3    (52)
7    37    Mark Ingram        29.7    (29)
7    38    T.J. Yeldon        25.9    (66)
8    39    Jay Ajayi        26.2    (27)
8    40    Duke Johnson    CLE    25.9    (39)
8    41    Jalen Richard    OAK    25.9    (94)
8    42    Dion Lewis    TEN    28.9    (33)
8    43    Gus Edwards    BAL    24.4    unr
8    44    Royce Freeman    DEN    23.5    (18)
8    45    LeSean McCoy    BUF    31.1    (25)
8    46    Isaiah Crowell    NYJ    26.6    (31)
8    47    Carlos Hyde    KC    28.9    (42)
8    48    D'Onta Foreman    HOU    23.4    (45)
8    49    C.J. Anderson        28.6    (47)
8    50    Peyton Barber    TB    25.5    (40)
8    51    Latavius Murray        28.5    (55)
8    52    Chris Thompson    WAS    28.9    (38)
9    53    Giovani Bernard    CIN    27.8    (50)
9    54    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    25.6    (71)
9    55    Jaylen Samuels    PIT    23.1    (76)
9    56    Jamaal Williams    GB    24.4    (34)
9    57    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    25.6    (95)
9    58    Theo Riddick    DET    28.3    (54)
9    59    Alex Collins        25.0    (20)
9    60    Marshawn Lynch        33.4    (49)
9    61    Adrian Peterson        34.4    (56)
9    62    Spencer Ware        27.8    (61)
9    63    Ito Smith    ATL    24.0    (68)
9    64    Mike Davis        26.5    (87)
9    65    Corey Clement    PHI    24.8    (51)
9    66    Malcolm Brown    RAM    26.3    (103)
10    67    Rex Burkhead    NE    29.2    (35)
10    68    Ty Montgomery        26.6    (48)
10    69    Chase Edmonds    ARI    23.4    (75)
10    70    Josh Adams    PHI    22.8    unr
10    71    Chris Warren    OAK    23.2    (92)
10    72    Frank Gore        36.3    (78)
10    73    Darren Sproles        36.2    (84)
10    74    Kalen Ballage    MIA    23.7    (79)
10    75    Bilal Powell        30.8    (57)
10    76    Jordan Wilkins    IND    25.1    (63)
10    77    Mark Walton    CIN    22.4    (67)
10    78    Elijah McGuire    NYJ    25.3    (72)
10    79    Doug Martin        30.6    (70)
10    80    Corey Grant        27.7    unr
10    81    Devontae Booker    DEN    27.3    (64)
10    82    Karlos Williams        26.3    unr
10    83    Samaje Perine    WAS    24.0    (60)
10    84    DeAndre Washington    OAK    26.5    (96)
10    85    Javorius Allen        28.0    (85)
10    86    John Kelly    RAM    22.9    (80)
10    87    Justin Jackson    LAC    24.4    unr
10    88    Darrel Williams    KC    24.4    unr
10    89    Raheem Mostert    SF    27.4    unr
10    90    Zach Zenner        28.0    unr
10    91    Rod Smith        27.6    (81)
10    92    Kenneth Farrow        26.5    unr
10    93    Cameron Artis-Payne        29.2    (102)
10    94    Boston Scott    NO    24.3    (82)

Barkley is the clear #1 player in fantasy football. Extremely talented any way you cut it, still very young, and he's a great receiver who catches a ton of passes. Rare combination.

Gurley's knee issues knock him down to tier 3 alongside Gordon. The combination of missing games & snaps along with reduced effective is a bad sign with an apparently chronic knee problem.

By tiers 5 & 6 there are a lot of guys who don't catch many passes (Michel, Henry, Mack, Howard), guys who don't necessarily have that firm a hold on their job (Conner, Jones, Mack, Williams, Carson), and guys who haven't done much yet in the NFL (Penny, Guice). Conner & Williams get boosts because they are potentially in a great situation to put up big numbers in 2019 (depending on what competition they wind up having).

Compared to FBG & DLF rankings, it looks like I'm higher on Kareem Hunt, Damien Williams, Jalen Richard, and LeVeon Bell. And I'm lower on Ito Smith, Elijah McGuire, Todd Gurley, Josh Adams, Royce Freeman, and Kalen Ballage.

Kareem Hunt: seems like either he'll be out of the league, or most of the rest of his career will look about the same as it would've without the off-the-field issues (except he won't be in the RB-friendly KC offense). Landing immediately in Cleveland suggests he's more likely than not to stick around (though it's also a bad short-term fantasy situation because of Chubb).

Damien Williams: I see him as a lot like Conner; I don't think Conner has much more talent or job security than Williams. I do give Conner some edge, but apparently not nearly as big of one as other rankers are. Also, I think FBG & DLF rankings might be underrating Williams compared to his trade value.

Ito Smith, Elijah McGuire, Kalen Ballage, Josh Adams: I guess a lot of people see these guys as next-man-up. I didn't especially like them coming into the league, haven't seen much to like about them in the NFL, and think that they'll all have to compete just to get the RB2 job on their team. I really don't get people putting Ito Smith in their top 40; his longest gain as a rookie was 20 yards and he's not going to turn into Tevin Coleman just because Coleman leaves.

Jalen Richard looked like one of the better receiving backs in the league, with borderline startable numbers in 2018 despite only 1 TD. If things line up a little better for him, he could have a year like James White 2018, Chris Thompson 2017, Theo Riddick 2016, Danny Woodhead 2015, etc.

ZWK said:

7    30    Jordan Howard    CHI    24.8    (15)

Click to expand...

If he's traded before the draft, would you move him up?

ZWK said:

7    31    Lamar Miller    HOU    28.4    (26)

Click to expand...

Always bad as a runner and much worse as a receiver in 2018. They have to get a RB, probably 2. Sell at half the price.

ZWK said:

9    55    Jaylen Samuels    PIT    23.1    (76)

Click to expand...

Given your comments on Richard, would think this should be higher.

5    35    Dede Westbrook    JAX    25.8    (73)

Click to expand...

I like Dede as a prospect but was a bit surprised his DVOA and YAR were pretty mediocre in 2018. Do you have an explanation why?

8    74    Tyrell Williams        27.6    (84)

Click to expand...

Seems like he will rise 30 places just by signing a contract on Wednesday.

Jaylen Samuels: The Steelers mostly weren't using him as the receiving part of an RB committee (week 17 was the main exception). If they do that then it'll boost his value.

Jordan Howard: His career path so far looks a lot like Alfred Morris's. Part of the issue is fit with Nagy's offense, part of it is that he has looked worse each year, part of it is that lack of receiving caps his upside.

Lamar Miller: He's an adequate starter in my eyes. Houston might try to upgrade, but they also might stick with him for another year while they focus on bigger needs like CB and OL.

Dede Westbrook: He had Bortles & Kessler as his QBs, and DVOA also punishes him a lot for his 2 fumbles. PFF (which is more designed to adjust for quarterback quality) likes him more, and there's some amount of impressiveness just in being borderline fantasy startable in your 2nd season with those QBs.

Tyrell Williams: Agreed that he should be higher. I had already moved him up 11 spots in my tinkering since I posted, and looking at it again I'm going to move him up a couple more. But I think he's as likely to be a Robert Meachem as a Marvin Jones.

Good read so far. Thanks. 

Formulaic TE projections.

Like my formulaic WR projections, these are generated entirely by formula and are not what I'd use to draft.

Last offseason I looked through historical fantasy TE data and came away with several observations based on trends in the data. The process of generating these formulaic TE projections covered somewhat similar ground, except instead of coming away with ideas which are helpful to humans who are trying to think about the current field of fantasy TEs, I came away with formulas which a spreadsheet can crank through to spit out numbers to rate the current field of fantasy TEs.

For players who have been in the league for 2 or fewer years, these are based on draft slot and production in each of the first 2 seasons. After a player's first season he'll get credit for good receiving efficiency even on a small volume - since big rookie years are rare for TEs, the formula is looking for hints that the guy has skills. After a player's second season his totals matter much more than his efficiency, because elite TEs usually have a big season within their first 2 years.

For players who have been in the league for 3 or more years, these are based on age and fantasy production in the 2 most recent seasons.

As with my formulaic WR projections, I have gone back to historical data and used a new method of calculating VBD (based on ppg with a fuzzy baseline). For TEs I only used data since the 1997 draft class, since the TE position was pretty different before then (if you're trying to spot the next Ben Coates or Jay Novacek then you're probably looking for the wrong signs).

Value is projected remainign career VBD, age is as of 9/1/19, and placeholders show where rookies will go.

Value  Player        Team  Age   Method
413    Travis Kelce    KC    29.9    prod
399    Zach Ertz    PHI    28.8    prod
378    George Kittle    SF    25.9    draft
300    Evan Engram    NYG    25.0    draft
259    O.J. Howard    TB    24.8    draft
232    [2019 pick 16]            draft
206    Eric Ebron    IND    26.4    prod
167    Mark Andrews    BAL    23.0    draft
154    Hayden Hurst    BAL    26.0    draft
154    Rob Gronkowski    NE    30.3    prod
152    David Njoku    CLE    23.1    draft
150    Hunter Henry    LAC    24.7    draft *
132    Dallas Goedert    PHI    25.7    draft
123    Chris Herndon    NYJ    23.5    draft
90    [2019 pick 48]            draft
82    Mike Gesicki    MIA    23.9    draft
77    Will Dissly    SEA    23.1    draft
60    Jordan Akins    HOU    27.4    draft
60    Austin Hooper    ATL    24.8    prod
58    Jared Cook        32.4    prod
58    Jack Doyle    IND    29.3    prod
57    Gerald Everett    RAM    25.2    draft
56    Ian Thomas    CAR    23.2    draft
55    Jordan Thomas    HOU    23.1    draft
49    Adam Shaheen    CHI    25.9    draft
45    [2019 pick 80]            draft
45    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    29.8    prod
24    Jonnu Smith    TEN    24.0    draft
23    Jimmy Graham    GB    32.8    prod
21    Delanie Walker    TEN    35.1    prod
19    Jordan Reed    WAS    29.2    prod
16    Trey Burton    CHI    27.8    prod
15    Tyler Conklin    MIN    24.1    draft

* This is the projection that Hunter Henry would've had before last season.

Players projected below 10 VBD for the rest of their career include Vance McDonald, Greg Olsen, Cameron Brate, Ricky Seals-Jones, Tyler Eifert, Blake Jarwin, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

These "Value" numbers should be directly comparable to the WRs, which would put Kelce between WR6 (Antonio Brown) and WR7 (Mike Evans) in dynasty value. Kelce did have 158 VBD last year, which put him between WR4 & WR5, so that isn't crazy.

I have some disagreements with this - I think it's underrating some of the more promising young guys (Kittle, Howard, Njoku, Henry, Everett) - but on the whole I think it comes about as close to my opinions as other experts' rankings do.

ZWK said:

Formulaic TE projections.

Like my formulaic WR projections, these are generated entirely by formula and are not what I'd use to draft.

Last offseason I looked through historical fantasy TE data and came away with several observations based on trends in the data. The process of generating these formulaic TE projections covered somewhat similar ground, except instead of coming away with ideas which are helpful to humans who are trying to think about the current field of fantasy TEs, I came away with formulas which a spreadsheet can crank through to spit out numbers to rate the current field of fantasy TEs.

For players who have been in the league for 2 or fewer years, these are based on draft slot and production in each of the first 2 seasons. After a player's first season he'll get credit for good receiving efficiency even on a small volume - since big rookie years are rare for TEs, the formula is looking for hints that the guy has skills. After a player's second season his totals matter much more than his efficiency, because elite TEs usually have a big season within their first 2 years.

For players who have been in the league for 3 or more years, these are based on age and fantasy production in the 2 most recent seasons.

As with my formulaic WR projections, I have gone back to historical data and used a new method of calculating VBD (based on ppg with a fuzzy baseline). For TEs I only used data since the 1997 draft class, since the TE position was pretty different before then (if you're trying to spot the next Ben Coates or Jay Novacek then you're probably looking for the wrong signs).

Value is projected remainign career VBD, age is as of 9/1/19, and placeholders show where rookies will go.

Value  Player        Team  Age   Method
413    Travis Kelce    KC    29.9    prod
399    Zach Ertz    PHI    28.8    prod
378    George Kittle    SF    25.9    draft
300    Evan Engram    NYG    25.0    draft
259    O.J. Howard    TB    24.8    draft
232    [2019 pick 16]            draft
206    Eric Ebron    IND    26.4    prod
167    Mark Andrews    BAL    23.0    draft
154    Hayden Hurst    BAL    26.0    draft
154    Rob Gronkowski    NE    30.3    prod
152    David Njoku    CLE    23.1    draft
150    Hunter Henry    LAC    24.7    draft *
132    Dallas Goedert    PHI    25.7    draft
123    Chris Herndon    NYJ    23.5    draft
90    [2019 pick 48]            draft
82    Mike Gesicki    MIA    23.9    draft
77    Will Dissly    SEA    23.1    draft
60    Jordan Akins    HOU    27.4    draft
60    Austin Hooper    ATL    24.8    prod
58    Jared Cook        32.4    prod
58    Jack Doyle    IND    29.3    prod
57    Gerald Everett    RAM    25.2    draft
56    Ian Thomas    CAR    23.2    draft
55    Jordan Thomas    HOU    23.1    draft
49    Adam Shaheen    CHI    25.9    draft
45    [2019 pick 80]            draft
45    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    29.8    prod
24    Jonnu Smith    TEN    24.0    draft
23    Jimmy Graham    GB    32.8    prod
21    Delanie Walker    TEN    35.1    prod
19    Jordan Reed    WAS    29.2    prod
16    Trey Burton    CHI    27.8    prod
15    Tyler Conklin    MIN    24.1    draft

* This is the projection that Hunter Henry would've had before last season.

Players projected below 10 VBD for the rest of their career include Vance McDonald, Greg Olsen, Cameron Brate, Ricky Seals-Jones, Tyler Eifert, Blake Jarwin, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

These "Value" numbers should be directly comparable to the WRs, which would put Kelce between WR6 (Antonio Brown) and WR7 (Mike Evans) in dynasty value. Kelce did have 158 VBD last year, which put him between WR4 & WR5, so that isn't crazy.

I have some disagreements with this - I think it's underrating some of the more promising young guys (Kittle, Howard, Njoku, Henry, Everett) - but on the whole I think it comes about as close to my opinions as other experts' rankings do.

Click to expand...

I think Austin Hooper is too low.

He has shown a natural progression for a TE improving each year and was TE 7 last season his 3rd in the league.

He might only have a Kyle RUdolph type career but I would take him before Hurst, Goedert ect who are projected to have more career VBD.

ZWK said:

 I really don't get people putting Ito Smith in their top 40; his longest gain as a rookie was 20 yards and he's not going to turn into Tevin Coleman just because Coleman leaves.

Click to expand...

I agree with you that ranking Ito Smith that high seems off.

I like Ito Smith as I think he has a lot of burst and quickness to his game but I don't know he can be anything but a committee type player.

There are some risks with Freemans recovery, which in theory could lead to Smith being their top RB. Maybe that is why some rank him that high?

I would think Atlanta will add another RB as they have to be concerned about Freemans health if fantasy owners are.

Offseason TE rankings. Assuming PPR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 8/31/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    George Kittle    SF    25.9    (15)
1    2    Travis Kelce    KC    29.9    (2)
1    3    O.J. Howard    TB    24.8    (6)
1    4    Zach Ertz    PHI    28.8    (4)
2    5    Evan Engram    NYG    25.0    (3)
2    6    Hunter Henry    LAC    24.7    (7)
3    7    David Njoku    CLE    23.1    (5)
3    8    Eric Ebron    IND    26.4    (20)
4    9    Rob Gronkowski    NE    30.3    (1)
4    10    Mark Andrews    BAL    23.0    (23)
4    11    Dallas Goedert    PHI    25.7    (13)
4    12    Chris Herndon    NYJ    23.5    (30)
4    13    Hayden Hurst    BAL    26.0    (12)
4    14    Trey Burton    CHI    27.8    (16)
4    15    Gerald Everett    RAM    25.2    (14)
4    16    Austin Hooper    ATL    24.8    (25)
4    17    Mike Gesicki    MIA    23.9    (9)
4    18    Jared Cook        32.4    (32)
4    19    Jordan Reed    WAS    29.2    (11)
4    20    Jack Doyle    IND    29.3    (21)
5    21    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    29.8    (10)
5    22    Will Dissly    SEA    23.1    (51)
5    23    Ian Thomas    CAR    23.2    (38)
5    24    Vance McDonald    PIT    29.2    (34)
5    25    Adam Shaheen    CHI    25.9    (22)
5    26    Jordan Akins    HOU    27.4    (27)
5    27    Delanie Walker    TEN    35.1    (19)
5    28    Greg Olsen    CAR    34.5    (18)
6    29    Jimmy Graham    GB    32.8    (8)
6    30    Tyler Eifert        29.0    (17)
6    31    Blake Jarwin    DAL    25.1    (55)
6    32    Jonnu Smith    TEN    24.0    (29)
6    33    Jordan Thomas    HOU    23.1    (56)
6    34    C.J. Uzomah    CIN    26.6    unr
6    35    Jesse James    DET    25.2    (48)
6    36    Tyler Kroft    BUF    26.9    (36)
7    37    Mo Alie-Cox    IND    25.9    unr
7    38    Cameron Brate    TB    28.2    (24)
7    39    Austin Seferian-Jenkins        26.9    (26)
7    40    Jason Witten    DAL    37.3    unr
7    41    Ricky Seals-Jones    ARI    24.5    (28)
7    42    Charles Clay    ARI    30.5    (31)
7    43    Jake Butt    DEN    24.1    (33)
7    44    Anthony Firkser    TEN    24.5    unr
7    45    Maxx Williams        25.4    (61)
7    46    Jeff Heuerman        26.8    (47)
7    47    Nick Vannett    SEA    26.5    (39)
7    48    Tyler Higbee    RAM    26.7    (37)
7    49    Dalton Schultz    DAL    23.1    (58)
7    50    Ben Watson        38.7    (35)
7    51    Dan Arnold    NO    24.5    unr
7    52    Ed Dickson    SEA    32.1    (45)
7    53    Josh Hill    NO    29.3    unr
7    54    Tyler Conklin    MIN    24.1    (59)
7    55    Demetrius Harris        28.1    unr
7    56    Michael Roberts    DET    25.3    (60)

These were basically done before the start of free agency. I made some quick adjustments today to move some newly signed guys up to the bottom of tier 6, and might move them further.

For background on how I think about dynasty TEs, see this analysis from last offseason and my formulaic TE projections which I posted yesterday.

The obvious top 4 are the 2 high-performing established vets and the 2 emerging up-and-comers. My instincts lean towards the young guys over the near-30-year-olds. Kittle is more already-arrived than Howard, even though Kittle's ridiculous YAC is probably unsustainable, so he takes the lead. With Howard we're still banking on his amazing efficiency and pedigree translating into more volume soon, plus Arians is a bit of a negative. Ertz is a year younger than Kelce but less talented, plus he has Goedert nipping at his heels.

Engram & Henry are just a step back from Howard. Njoku is another big step behind them, since he still hasn't put it together on the pro level. My formulaic projections, which expect TEs to show something by year 2, is growing impatient.

Ebron is on the same tier as Njoku, coming off a career year in a perfect situation with Luck playing great at QB, Doyle missing most of this year, and minimal other talent in the receiving corps outside of Hilton. The most concerning number for Ebron is 43: that's the percentage of snaps that Ebron played in games 8-11 when Doyle was active (even though Ebron had good numbers with Doyle out over the first half of the year). The most optimistic sign for Ebron is that there's a reasonably good chance that his situation might remain excellent over the coming years, with Doyle in the last year of his contract, Indy likely to consider re-signing Ebron if he keeps being effective, and other receiving talent hard to come by (with apologies to Devin Funchess).

Tier 4 is where things start to get interesting. 3 main patterns in the historical data to keep in mind: 1) great fantasy TEs most often break out in their 2nd year, and usually by their 3rd year, 2) draft position is a very strong predictor of TE success through a player's second year, and 3) an impressive rookie season is a strong sign of future fantasy success even if it just involves good efficiency and not good fantasy totals. Those are most of the story behind the high rankings for 2nd year TEs Andrews & Herndon (promising rookie years), Hurst (1st round pick), and Goedert (earlyish pick and somewhat promising rookie year). Gesicki's awful rookie year causes him to slide down a few spots. Everett & Shaheen not showing more in their second year causes them to slide down too, although PFF loved Everett's 2018 season for some reason so he doesn't slide too far.

Farther down the rankings, Dissly gets a big boost from a couple good games and Akins doesn't get fall much from being in a 3-way committee as a rookie (in part because his per-snap production was fine).

Compared to FBG & DLF, I'm higher on Mark Andrews, Will Dissly, Jordan Akins, Hayden Hurst, Anthony Firkser, Gerald Everett, and Maxx Williams and lower on Kyle Rudolph, Ricky Seals-Jones, Jimmy Graham, Nick Vannett, Jonnu Smith, Cameron Brate, Trey Burton.

I've already covered most of the guys I'm higher on. I feel like Rudolph comes up every time, he's basically Johnny Baseline and for some reason other folks like that. Graham seems pretty washed up - I'd rather have Delanie Walker and FFCalculator redraft rankings agree. It looks like Jonnu Smith just isn't very good; if Ian Thomas & Jordan Akins disappoint this season then a year from now they'll look like Jonnu Smith does now.

Everett & Shaheen not showing more in their second year causes them to slide down too, although PFF loved Everett's 2018 season for some reason so he doesn't slide too far.

Click to expand...

Everett's just not going to get a lot of targets. Kupp returning alongside an emerging Reynolds hurts his value a ton. They're behind Cooks, Woods, and Gurley too. I just don't see it. Same goes for Shaheen to an extent. I watch a lot of Bears because of living in Chicago. He's a specimen but hasn't shown the growth in his first full season to be overly optimistic. The offense spreads the ball around a lot and he's just not going to get the burn.

I’d consider bumping up Vance McDonald a little bit. Jesse James left via Free agency and with AB no longer there, there should be more targets to go around in that passing game.  I think he picks up a significant bump in targets. 

Has Pete Carroll's offense ever produced a viable FF TE in SEA? I had Dissly and cut him loose b/c that team just buries TEs along the line and, even with Jimmy Graham putting together one decent season, it just seems like a bad place to look for a FF TE. (This is off-the-cuff, as I recall liking some of the talent there over the years but never seeing any reliable production.)

ZWK said:

5    23    Ian Thomas    CAR    23.2    (38)
5    24    Vance McDonald    PIT    29.2    (34)

Tier 4 is where things start to get interesting. 3 main patterns in the historical data to keep in mind: 1) great fantasy TEs most often break out in their 2nd year, and usually by their 3rd year, 2) draft position is a very strong predictor of TE success through a player's second year, and 3) an impressive rookie season is a strong sign of future fantasy success even if it just involves good efficiency and not good fantasy totals. 

It looks like Jonnu Smith just isn't very good; if Ian Thomas & Jordan Akins disappoint this season then a year from now they'll look like Jonnu Smith does now.

Click to expand...

This is where I have questions.  Obviously Vance is on the older side and never really broke out but I'm surprised by how low he is considering AB is gone.  They're likely to add a WR to that room but I don't expect a day1 or day2 pick which would elevate Vance quite a bit.

Ian Thomas seems to qualify for 2/3 of your rules though which makes me wonder about the ranking.  I can see the Vance one since he's older but I'd gladly take a shot on Ian Thomas before almost everyone ranked 9-23.  Seems like the perfect candidate to take that leap into his 2nd year after showing well later in the season.  Again didn't break out but opportunity is there with no Funchess, growing role (maybe no Olsen), and better efficiency near the end of the season.  Just took him about 12 weeks to get going which isn't a knock for a rookie TE IMO.  

ZWK said:

Njoku is another big step behind them, since he still hasn't put it together on the pro level. My formulaic projections, which expect TEs to show something by year 2, is growing impatient.

Click to expand...

I know you're big on TEs having to show growth by Year 2, but you're also big on those who display NFL-caliber skills at precocious ages - and Njoku didn't even turn 21 until a few days before his rookie training camp. Here's a complete list of TEs who caught 25+ balls at age 21: Gronk, Aaron Hernandez, Witten, Gonzalez, Ebron, Maxx Williams (somewhat inexplicably), and Njoku. Change the criteria to 75+ catches by age 22 and the only names atop Njoku are the first four on that list. That's pretty rarefied air to be in.

Kind of a quibble but I don't see any reason not to have him alongside Engram / Henry in tier 2 at worst (personally I'd put him atop those names).

One thing worth noting (especially about the young guys) is that my rankings line up pretty closely with the formulaic TE projections. The formula doesn't play favorites, and it puts Njoku a tier behind Engram, Dissly ahead of Ian Thomas, Shaheen close behind them, etc.

On the topic of too many mouths to feed: I agree that this makes some difference, especially if it involves another good TE (e.g. Goedert behind Ertz, Shaheen having to deal with Burton, Ebron sharing with Doyle). But I think people often make too much of it. For one thing, situations can change pretty quick - Cleveland's receiving corps was thin when Njoku was drafted but now they're turning into a too-many-mouths situation, Tampa had too many mouths last year but two of them have left town, etc. For another, it affects mid-range talents more than the top guys (Gronk in his prime was going to get his regardless of who else NE put out there), and with young guys like Everett, Shaheen, Njoku, and Hurst much of their value comes from the possibility that they'll turn out to be top talents.

Similarly, this talk about which teams like to use their TE matters some at the edge but is not a huge factor, especially for young guys. TE usage depends on who you have at TE. Seattle's TE usage may be a bit below average, but Graham still averaged 63/762/6.7 per 16 games despite probably being past his prime. It's hard to know how much Nagy wants to use his TEs; in KC he obviously got plenty of balls to Kelce.

After thinking things over a bit more, I am going to move Ian Thomas up to tier 4. My formula is unimpressed by his season totals (36/333/2), but it's much stronger over the 9 games that Olsen missed all or most of (35/318/2 - yes, he had just 1 reception over the other 7 games). It also helps that I did see some promise in him heading into last year's draft. I'm also going to move McDonald up a few slots based on opportunity for production this year; I'll be keeping an eye on his redraft rankings as I try to decide exactly where to place him. And Brate should move up too with the increased opportunity in Tampa, to borderline tier 6/7. Higbee should be around there too.

Njoku and Engram are staying on separate tiers, though, and the gap between them has now widened with Beckham switching teams. And Everett, Dissly, and Shaheen still seem about right where they are. Dissly earned a week 1 starting job alongside Nick Vannett, then had the biggest receiving game of any rookie TE and became Seattle's lead TE, then got knocked out for the season (though we don't know if we would've played ahead of Ed Dickson, who missed the first several games). Shaheen is a 2nd rounder who has drawn Gronk comparisons; he had some hype going into his 2nd season (especially after a big preseason game against the Bengals) before getting knocked to IR for most of the season with a sprained ankle/foot. If the game is about looking for flashes of high-end talent to try to spot the next Gronk/Ertz/Kelce, those are the kinds of signs to notice. There are also good reasons for doubt with these guys (which is why Dissly & Shaheen are down on tier 5), but I'm not going to put them behind someone like Greg Olsen who is probably a one-year rental yet isn't even being taken as a starter in redraft.

Mr. Irrelevant said:

I know you're big on TEs having to show growth by Year 2, but you're also big on those who display NFL-caliber skills at precocious ages - and Njoku didn't even turn 21 until a few days before his rookie training camp. Here's a complete list of TEs who caught 25+ balls at age 21: Gronk, Aaron Hernandez, Witten, Gonzalez, Ebron, Maxx Williams (somewhat inexplicably), and Njoku. Change the criteria to 75+ catches by age 22 and the only names atop Njoku are the first four on that list. That's pretty rarefied air to be in.

Kind of a quibble but I don't see any reason not to have him alongside Engram / Henry in tier 2 at worst (personally I'd put him atop those names).

Click to expand...

I’d put him lower. Can’t catch and was helped by the lack of wr talent. I was really disappointed last year and sold.

Offseason QB rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 9/2/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Patrick Mahomes    KC    24.0    (16)
2    2    Deshaun Watson    HOU    24.0    (4)
2    3    Andrew Luck    IND    30.0    (5)
2    4    Baker Mayfield    CLE    24.4    (7)
3    5    Carson Wentz    PHI    26.7    (2)
3    6    Jared Goff    RAM    24.9    (11)
3    7    Aaron Rodgers    GB    35.7    (3)
3    8    Russell Wilson    SEA    30.8    (1)
3    9    Cam Newton    CAR    30.3    (10)
3    10    Mitchell Trubisky    CHI    25.0    (18)
3    11    Matt Ryan    ATL    34.3    (17)
3    12    Jameis Winston    TB    25.7    (9)
3    13    Lamar Jackson    BAL    22.6    (19)
3    14    Drew Brees    NO    40.6    (20)
3    15    Jimmy Garoppolo    SF    27.8    (6)
3    16    Sam Darnold    NYJ    22.2    (12)
3    17    Dak Prescott    DAL    26.1    (13)
3    18    Josh Allen    BUF    23.3    (24)
4    19    Tom Brady    NE    42.1    (14)
4    20    Marcus Mariota    TEN    25.8    (8)
4    21    Kirk Cousins    MIN    31.0    (15)
4    22    Matthew Stafford    DET    31.6    (21)
4    23    Philip Rivers    LAC    37.7    (26)
4    24    Ben Roethlisberger    PIT    37.5    (23)
4    25    Josh Rosen    ARI    22.6    (22)
4    26    Andy Dalton    CIN    31.8    (29)
4    27    Nick Foles    JAX    30.6    (35)
4    28    Derek Carr    OAK    28.4    (25)
5    29    Ryan Fitzpatrick        36.8    (49)
5    30    Blake Bortles        27.7    (33)
5    31    Tyrod Taylor        30.1    (27)
5    32    Alex Smith    WAS    35.3    (30)
5    33    Ryan Tannehill        31.1    (31)
5    34    Teddy Bridgewater    NO    26.8    (32)
5    35    Joe Flacco    DEN    34.6    (42)
5    36    Nick Mullens    SF    24.4    unr
5    37    Case Keenum    WAS    31.5    (28)
5    38    Mason Rudolph    PIT    24.1    (37)
6    39    Sam Bradford    ARI    31.8    (34)
6    40    Kyle Lauletta    NYG    24.5    (38)
6    41    Jacoby Brissett    IND    26.7    (39)
6    42    DeShone Kizer    GB    23.7    (40)
6    43    Eli Manning    NYG    38.7    (41)
6    44    Colt McCoy    WAS    33.0    unr
6    45    Mike White    DAL    24.4    (43)
6    46    Sean Mannion    RAM    27.4    unr
6    47    Taysom Hill        29.0    unr
6    48    Garrett Gilbert        28.2    unr
6    49    Robert Griffin III    BAL    29.5    (44)

ZWK said:

Offseason QB rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 9/2/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
3    14    Drew Brees    NO    40.6    (20)
4    19    Tom Brady    NE    42.1    (14)

4    21    Kirk Cousins    MIN    31.0    (15)
4    22    Matthew Stafford    DET    31.6    (21)

Click to expand...

The VBD argument for the older guys is that baseline QB production is essentially worthless, take the short-term advantage over the longer term baseline production. 

But is VBD flawed, when it comes to QBs? Does it account for that the fact that we can more accurately predict the games that a QB will outperform his average, relative to other positions?

I buy that Cousins is a below baseline option over 16 games. I buy that Stafford is a below baseline option over 16 games. But give me both of them and I think I'm going to accumulate VBD by playing matchups. (Last year was especially bad for Stafford, but in general.) 

ZWK said:

Offseason QB rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 9/2/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
3    5    Carson Wentz    PHI    26.7    (2)
3    6    Jared Goff    RAM    24.9    (11)
3    7    Aaron Rodgers    GB    35.7    (3)
3    8    Russell Wilson    SEA    30.8    (1)
3    9    Cam Newton    CAR    30.3    (10)
3    10    Mitchell Trubisky    CHI    25.0    (18)
3    11    Matt Ryan    ATL    34.3    (17)
3    12    Jameis Winston    TB    25.7    (9)
3    13    Lamar Jackson    BAL    22.6    (19)
3    14    Drew Brees    NO    40.6    (20)
3    15    Jimmy Garoppolo    SF    27.8    (6)
3    16    Sam Darnold    NYJ    22.2    (12)
3    17    Dak Prescott    DAL    26.1    (13)
3    18    Josh Allen    BUF    23.3    (24)

Click to expand...

Tier 3 feels too big. I think Wentz and Goff are worth more than double some of the other guys. 

ZWK said:

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
6    19    Rashaad Penny    SEA    23.6    (14)
6    20    Derrius Guice    WAS    22.2    (21)
6    21    Phillip Lindsay    DEN    25.1    (86)

Click to expand...

I'm surprised to see Penny in the same tier as these 2. I can't be so forgiving of a player who couldn't even earn the backup job. I take that to mean Seattle was off on their grade - Penny wasn't a 1st round talent - or that there are serious concerns about his work ethic or teachability. And Chris Carson is a sizable obstacle for the next 2 years, at least. 

Trading Penny for Guice feels like a do-over, which is a no-brainer for me. 

Lindsay doesn't quite have the ceiling, due to his size, but I'll take a safe RB2 over the gamble that is Penny. 

ZWK said:

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
4    17    Amari Cooper    DAL    25.2    (14)

Click to expand...

I was down on Cooper, back when he was being treated as a top 5 WR. But I think 17 is too low. He looked good in Dallas and is still young. What puts him below Landry, Moore, and Davis?

Thanks for sharing your rankings. They look great as always. 

Amari Cooper: I have kept tinkering with my rankings and he is now ahead of Landry & Davis. I still have him behind DJ Moore, who I liked a lot coming into the league and had a promising rookie year. Cooper has had ups and downs, and generally hasn't been a top receiver according to ratings like PFF grade or Reception Perception getting open ratings. Moore as a rookie was close behind Cooper as a 4th year player in PFF grade.

Rashaad Penny: I had him a tier (and 6 spots) ahead of Penny coming into the league. I liked him more as a prospect, and then he got drafted a whole round earlier. Guice lost just a little value with his missed season lost season, Penny dropped a tier with his struggles, and now they're neck-and-neck. I know a lot of people are higher on Guice than I am, but that's been true since before the draft. (I have also reshuffled that tier a bit over the past month so Penny is a few spots lower, but I do still have him on the same tier and neck-and-neck with Guice & Lindsay.)

Brees & Brady vs. Cousins & Stafford: Playing matchups helps a little, but if you are playing matchups with 2 QBs in the QB10-15 range then you're still giving up a lot of points to the top few QBs. Lately I've been doing analyses using a fuzzy baseline for VBD (explained here) which gives baselineish players more credit for their production and I think better reflects the kind of value that you're talking about. I haven't gotten around to re-analyzing QBs yet with this method, but I think it will still look very top-heavy. So I'd rather have Brees and his shot at top 5 production, especially since he might have a few more years of it. (Brady maybe shouldn't be ahead of Cousins since losing Gronk has hurt his redraft value.)

QB Tier 3: I agree that there's a pretty big gap between QB5 and QB18. It's a somewhat awkward situation for tiering, where there is a gradual dropoff between those guys with no obvious sharp jumps.

Russell Wilson should be 5th at worst.  8 seems like an insult.  

I'd happily take Carr about 10 slots higher due to age and his past production.  He's set up to succeed and he's ranked as the last starting QB.

Rosen near 18 as well due to age.  

ZWK said:

Rashaad Penny: I had him a tier (and 6 spots) ahead of Penny coming into the league. I liked him more as a prospect, and then he got drafted a whole round earlier. Guice lost just a little value with his missed season lost season, Penny dropped a tier with his struggles, and now they're neck-and-neck. I know a lot of people are higher on Guice than I am, but that's been true since before the draft. (I have also reshuffled that tier a bit over the past month so Penny is a few spots lower, but I do still have him on the same tier and neck-and-neck with Guice & Lindsay.)

Click to expand...

I think I got this from you, so correct me if I'm wrong. But isn't true that a player's chances of breaking out are halved every year that he doesn't? (And my gut tells me 50% would be generous to Penny.) Even independent of Guice and Lindsay, I'd expect a bigger drop. Just my opinion, of course. 

ZWK said:

Brees & Brady vs. Cousins & Stafford: Playing matchups helps a little, but if you are playing matchups with 2 QBs in the QB10-15 range then you're still giving up a lot of points to the top few QBs. Lately I've been doing analyses using a fuzzy baseline for VBD (explained here) which gives baselineish players more credit for their production and I think better reflects the kind of value that you're talking about. I haven't gotten around to re-analyzing QBs yet with this method, but I think it will still look very top-heavy. So I'd rather have Brees and his shot at top 5 production, especially since he might have a few more years of it. (Brady maybe shouldn't be ahead of Cousins since losing Gronk has hurt his redraft value.)

Click to expand...

You're likely right about it still being top heavy. Giving it some more thought, I'd expect QB would be least affected by use of a fuzzy baseline. Replacement production (or just below) is a safer assumption at the QB spot, where the starter is going to get all of his teams opportunities. QBBC also requires you to use a roster spot on a "backup" with limited upside, wheras you can gamble and wait if you have a guy like Brees. Yeah - you're right. 

ZWK said:

Amari Cooper: I have kept tinkering with my rankings and he is now ahead of Landry & Davis. I still have him behind DJ Moore, who I liked a lot coming into the league and had a promising rookie year. Cooper has had ups and downs, and generally hasn't been a top receiver according to ratings like PFF grade or Reception Perception getting open ratings. Moore as a rookie was close behind Cooper as a 4th year player in PFF grade.

Click to expand...

That makes sense to me. It is worth pointing out that Cooper's grade was 69.8 wks 1-9 and 79.8 wks 10-17. And the 69.8 includes two quality DAL games, so I think his DAL grade was 80+. But he did cool off down the stretch - he's up and down, as you point out. 

Concept Coop said:

I think I got this from you, so correct me if I'm wrong. But isn't true that a player's chances of breaking out are halved every year that he doesn't? (And my gut tells me 50% would be generous to Penny.) Even independent of Guice and Lindsay, I'd expect a bigger drop. Just my opinion, of course. 

Click to expand...

Penny didn't break out but was very effective with his touches.  85 carries/4.92 YPC, 9 receptions/8.33 YPR

The narrative that he "sucked" doesn't add up.

ILUVBEER99 said:

Penny didn't break out but was very effective with his touches.  85 carries/4.92 YPC, 9 receptions/8.33 YPR

The narrative that he "sucked" doesn't add up.

Click to expand...

The narrative isn't that Penny sucked on the carries he got. The narrative is that it's shocking that the same team who spent a 1st round pick on him played 2 backs in front of him. That leads me to believe that he wasn't who they thought he would be at this point in the process. 

4.9 is obviously solid, but it means less on only 85 carries. 

Concept Coop said:

The narrative isn't that Penny sucked on the carries he got. The narrative is that it's shocking that the same team who spent a 1st round pick on him played 2 backs in front of him. That tells me that he wasn't who they thought he would be at this point in the process. 

4.9 is obviously solid, but it means less on only 85 carries. 

Click to expand...

Agreed.  The narrative that he sucked absolutely adds up when you consider he was their 1st round pick and couldn’t beat out either Carson or Davis.

Concept Coop said:

I think I got this from you, so correct me if I'm wrong. But isn't true that a player's chances of breaking out are halved every year that he doesn't? (And my gut tells me 50% would be generous to Penny.) Even independent of Guice and Lindsay, I'd expect a bigger drop. Just my opinion, of course. 

Click to expand...

That sounds plausible; I have done analyses along those lines but I don't remember the exact numbers. Here are first round RBs who didn't do much as rookies - it looks like about half of them wound up with at least 1 season as a fantasy starter, and a couple of them became stars.

It seems worth noting that Guice was worth a bit less than half as much as Penny according to my generic rookie rankings ("RB drafted with pick 59" has 44% as much expected career VBD as "RB drafted with pick 27"). So Penny's tier drop is a pretty big and meaningful move.

Zyphros said:

Russell Wilson should be 5th at worst.  8 seems like an insult.  

I'd happily take Carr about 10 slots higher due to age and his past production.  He's set up to succeed and he's ranked as the last starting QB.

Rosen near 18 as well due to age.  

Click to expand...

Wilson wasn't a top 5 fantasy QB in 2018 and he's generally not being drafted as one for 2019. Rodgers is going a couple rounds ahead of him in redraft, and it's not clear how big a longevity gap there is in terms of years of high-end performance since QB rushing ages worse than QB passing. Goff & Wentz are both going just a round or two behind him in redraft, and are each much younger and potentially still on the upswing of their career.

Carr & Rosen - it's interesting, normally people accuse me of underrating solid vets like Cousins & Rivers and overrating young potential. But you're coming at this from the other direction.

Comparing Rosen to other young QBs: I think there's pretty large gap between Darnold & Rosen. I liked Darnold more than Rosen as a prospect, and then Darnold got drafted earlier, and then Darnold had a much better rookie year. I'd also definitely take Haskins or Lock over Rosen. J Allen & L Jackson are closer to Rosen in terms of NFL potential, but their running gives them a huge edge in fantasy. And that's before accounting for the fact that the team that drafted Rosen is probably going to trade him away, and no one seems willing to pay more than a 2nd rounder. Maybe you think I should be generally higher on all these young guys, but I think I'm already leaning pretty far in favor of upside potential and at some point you have to go for the guys who look like better starters for this season like Cousins & Rivers.

Carr has now been around long enough that he's not so young, and the evidence so far is that he doesn't have much upside. Guys like Stafford & Cousins have shown more and are just a couple years older, guys like Mariota & Foles are still younger or more unknown and therefore seem to have a better chance of emerging as top 10 QBs. I think Carr is more likely to lose his job within the next 2 years than to emerge as a top 10 QB.

That 12-25 range of QB's is just so up in the air to me.  There's a bunch of them I want nothing to do with.  Mariota, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Brees, Stafford.  All of them I'm comfortable putting them out to pasture and taking a chance on a high upside guy like Rosen or Carr.  Maybe that's just my mentality towards them and feel the book has been written but Rosen and Carr could be top10 QB's of the future if things break right.  At best those other QB's MIGHT sneak into the top10 1 more time in their careers (Ben's and Drew's were this past year).  

Zyphros said:

That 12-25 range of QB's is just so up in the air to me.  There's a bunch of them I want nothing to do with.  Mariota, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Brees, Stafford.  All of them I'm comfortable putting them out to pasture and taking a chance on a high upside guy like Rosen or Carr.  Maybe that's just my mentality towards them and feel the book has been written but Rosen and Carr could be top10 QB's of the future if things break right.  At best those other QB's MIGHT sneak into the top10 1 more time in their careers (Ben's and Drew's were this past year).  

Click to expand...

There is no way Rosen is a top 10 QB. I just don't see why people rate him so high when he's done so little.

First pass at post-draft rankings, starting with WR. PPR, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 2/26/19.

1    1    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    27.2    (1)
1    2    Odell Beckham Jr.    CLE    26.8    (3)
1    3    Michael Thomas    NO    26.5    (2)
2    4    JuJu Smith-Schuster    PIT    22.8    (5)
2    5    Davante Adams    GB    26.7    (6)
2    6    Mike Evans    TB    26.0    (7)
3    7    Keenan Allen    LAC    27.3    (8)
3    8    Stefon Diggs    MIN    25.8    (9)
3    9    Adam Thielen    MIN    29.0    (10)
3    10    Julio Jones    ATL    30.6    (11)
4    11    Antonio Brown    OAK    31.1    (12)
4    12    Brandin Cooks    RAM    25.9    (13)
4    13    D.J. Moore    CAR    22.4    (14)
4    14    Amari Cooper    DAL    25.2    (17)
4    15    Tyler Boyd    CIN    24.8    (19)
4    16    Calvin Ridley    ATL    24.7    (18)
4    17    Corey Davis    TEN    24.6    (16)
4    18    T.Y. Hilton    IND    29.8    (22)
4    19    A.J. Green    CIN    31.1    (20)
4    20    Mike Williams    LAC    24.9    (21)
4    21    N'Keal Harry    NWE    21.7    rook
4    22    Robert Woods    RAM    27.4    (23)
4    23    Jarvis Landry    CLE    26.8    (15)
4    24    Kenny Golladay    DET    25.8    (25)
4    25    Sammy Watkins    KC    26.2    (28)
4    26    Cooper Kupp    RAM    26.2    (24)
5    27    Tyreek Hill    KC    25.5    (4)
5    28    Tyler Lockett    SEA    26.9    (26)
5    29    Courtland Sutton    DEN    23.9    (27)
5    30    Marquise Brown    BAL    22.2    rook
5    31    Will Fuller    HOU    25.4    (29)
5    32    Allen Robinson    CHI    26.0    (30)
5    33    Chris Godwin    TB    23.5    (31)
5    34    A.J. Brown    TEN    22.2    rook
5    35    Deebo Samuel    SFO    23.6    rook
5    36    Robby Anderson    NYJ    26.3    (32)
5    37    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    29.5    (33)
6    38    JJ Arcega-Whiteside    PHI    22.7    rook
6    39    Sterling Shepard    NYG    26.6    (41)
6    40    Parris Campbell    IND    22.1    rook
6    41    Andy Isabella    ARI    22.8    rook
6    42    D.K. Metcalf    SEA    21.7    rook
6    43    Julian Edelman    NE    33.3    (40)
6    44    Mecole Hardman    KAN    22.5    rook
6    45    Dede Westbrook    JAX    25.8    (35)
6    46    Christian Kirk    ARI    22.8    (34)
6    47    Marvin Jones    DET    29.5    (36)
6    48    Keke Coutee    HOU    22.6    (39)
6    49    Anthony Miller    CHI    24.9    (42)
6    50    Curtis Samuel    CAR    23.1    (43)
6    51    Tre’Quan Smith    NO    23.6    (44)
6    52    Dante Pettis    SF    23.9    (46)
6    53    Hakeem Butler    ARI    23.3    rook
6    54    Robert Foster    BUF    25.3    (45)
6    55    Jalen Hurd    SFO    23.6    rook
6    56    Devin Funchess    IND    25.3    (52)
6    57    Marquise Goodwin    SF    28.8    (48)
6    58    Golden Tate    NYG    31.1    (37)
6    59    James Washington    PIT    23.4    (50)
6    60    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    32.4    (47)
6    61    Doug Baldwin    SEA    30.9    (38)
7    62    Zay Jones    BUF    24.4    (49)
7    63    Michael Gallup    DAL    23.5    (53)
7    64    John Ross    CIN    23.8    (51)
7    65    Diontae Johnson    PIT    22.8    rook
7    66    John Brown    BUF    29.4    (54)
7    67    Terry McLaurin    WAS    24.0    rook
7    68    Geronimo Allison    GB    25.6    (75)
7    69    D.J. Chark    JAX    22.9    (56)
7    70    Quincy Enunwa    NYJ    27.3    (60)
7    71    Marquez Valdes-Scantling    GB    24.9    (76)
7    72    Marqise Lee    JAX    27.8    (67)
7    73    Miles Boykin    BAL    22.9    rook
7    74    Gary Jennings    SEA    22.5    rook
7    75    Donte Moncrief    PIT    26.1    (89)
7    76    Demaryius Thomas    NE    31.7    (55)
7    77    Kenny Stills    MIA    27.4    (62)
7    78    Albert Wilson    MIA    27.1    (63)
7    79    Tyrell Williams    OAK    27.6    (74)
7    80    Nelson Agholor    PHI    26.3    (57)
7    81    Antonio Callaway    CLE    22.6    (58)
7    82    DeSean Jackson    PHI    32.7    (69)
7    83    DeVante Parker    MIA    26.6    (59)
7    84    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    36.0    (65)
8    85    Taywan Taylor    TEN    24.5    (68)
8    86    Josh Gordon    NE    28.4    (61)
8    87    Josh Doctson    WAS    26.7    (64)
8    88    Riley Ridley    CHI    23.1    rook
8    89    Adam Humphries    TEN    26.2    (85)
8    90    Jamison Crowder    NYJ    26.2    (70)
8    91    Dez Bryant        30.8    (66)
8    92    Mohamed Sanu    ATL    30.0    (71)
8    93    Michael Crabtree        32.0    (73)
8    94    Bruce Ellington    NE    28.0    (137)
8    95    David Moore    SEA    24.6    (77)
8    96    Cameron Meredith    NO    26.9    (78)
8    97    Jakeem Grant    MIA    26.8    (79)
8    98    Paul Richardson    WAS    27.4    (80)
8    99    Keith Kirkwood    NO    25.7    (88)
8    100    Demarcus Robinson    KC    24.9    unr
8    101    Josh Reynolds    RAM    24.5    (86)
8    102    Trey Quinn    WAS    23.7    rook
8    103    Willie Snead    BAL    26.9    (90)
8    104    Phillip Dorsett    NE    26.7    (91)
8    105    Emanuel Hall    CHI    22.3    rook
8    106    Randall Cobb    DAL    29.0    (72)
8    107    Rashard Higgins    CLE    24.9    (83)
8    108    DaeSean Hamilton    DEN    24.5    (98)
8    109    Jordan Lasley    BAL    22.8    (105)
8    110    Ted Ginn    NO    34.4    (94)
8    111    Rashad Ross    CAR    29.6    unr
8    112    Charles Johnson    PHI    30.5    unr
8    113    Kelvin Harmon    WAS    22.7    rook
8    114    Equanimeous St. Brown    GB    22.9    (106)
8    115    Keelan Cole    JAX    26.4    (81)
8    116    Taylor Gabriel    CHI    28.6    (87)
8    117    Hunter Renfrow    OAK    23.7    rook
8    118    Kelvin Benjamin        28.6    (84)
8    119    Deon Cain    IND    23.1    (112)
8    120    J'Mon Moore    GB    24.3    (111)
8    121    LilJordan Humphrey    NO    21.4    rook
9    122    Allen Hurns    DAL    27.8    (93)
9    123    John Ursua    SEA    ?25.7?    rook
9    124    Pierre Garcon        33.1    (92)
9    125    Dontrelle Inman        30.6    (82)
9    126    Darius Slayton    NYG    22.6    rook
9    127    KeeSean Johnson    ARI    22.9    rook
9    128    Trent Taylor    SF    25.3    (95)
9    129    Laquon Treadwell    MIN    24.2    (96)
9    130    Travis Fulgham    DET    24.0    rook
9    131    Martavis Bryant    OAK    27.7    (97)
9    132    Kendrick Bourne    SF    24.1    (99)
9    133    Rishard Matthews        29.9    (102)
9    134    Corey Coleman    NYG    25.2    (103)
9    135    Chad Williams    ARI    24.9    (104)
9    136    Brandon Zylstra    MIN    26.4    (107)
9    137    Josh Malone    CIN    23.4    (108)
9    138    Cole Beasley    BUF    30.3    (109)
9    139    Ryan Grant   OAK     28.7    (100)
9    140    Jordan Matthews   SF     27.1    (110)
9    141    Chester Rogers    IND    25.6    (113)
9    142    Danny Amendola   DET     33.8    (114)
9    143    Marcell Ateman    OAK    25.0    (117)
9    144    Chris Hogan    CAR    30.9    (101)
9    145    Jermaine Kearse        29.6    (116)
9    146    Deontay Burnett    NYJ    21.9    (119)
9    147    Mack Hollins    PHI    26.0    (120)
9    148    Travis Benjamin    LAC    29.7    (121)
9    149    Breshad Perriman    TB    26.0    (154)
9    150    Justin Watson    TB    24.4    (132)

Rookies slotting in a way that heavily weights draft position. The rookies who have more question marks about talent went to better situations (e.g. Campbell, Hardman), so those partially cancel out. I've had more to say about them in my other thread.

The "previous" ranking did not include rookies, so most non-rookies move down just from having rookies slot in ahead of them. It was also before free agency.

Some other movement: GB WRs move up since they didn't draft any WRs, Tyreek & Baldwin moving down since their career might be over, other KC WRs moving up with increased opportunity, Moncrief moving up due to landing in Pittsburgh, Landry moving down since the Beckham signing likely limits his targets.

I haven't cleaned out the bottom of these rankings as well as I'd like.

^What are you assuming about Baldwin? I would probably take him off my board at this point, which could possibly have an effect on the rankings of Lockett and Metcalf.

ZWK said:

3    10    Julio Jones    ATL    30.6    (11)
4    16    Calvin Ridley    ATL    24.7    (18)

Click to expand...

Can you explain your thinking here? As relates not only to these two, but also to others like Sanu.

ZWK said:

2    5    Davante Adams    GB    26.7    (6)
7    68    Geronimo Allison    GB    25.6    (75)

Click to expand...

Can you explain your thinking here? No issue with Adams, but you really think the #2 target in GB is in your 7th tier? I assume you don't have GB TEs or RBs stealing significant workshare.

GB non-Adams WRs have a great situation but look to not be good players. I think Allison & MVS belong in the 40s for redraft WR rankings, and most of their dynasty value is for this season. I just looked at a few redraft rankings, and most of them have them going even later than that. I do think that the GB WR who gets the 2nd most targets is likely to wind up in the top 36, but we don't know who that will be (and top 36 isn't worth that much).

Ridley & Metcalf: their rankings are mainly based on my sense of their talent, rather than their teammates/situation. Ridley I wasn't that high on as a prospect, but he went in the first round and had a nice rookie year. Being behind Julio for probably the next couple years hurts his dynasty value, but having Matt Ryan helps it; those roughly cancel out. Metcalf went at the end of the 2nd round, and his strengths are so obvious that I don't think NFL teams would miss them; his weaknesses are obvious too.

Baldwin: maybe a 20% chance of continuing to be a good WR, a 20% chance of playing but struggling, and a 60% chance of retiring.

Mike Williams at 20

Sammy Watkins at 25

Tyler Lockett at 28

Those are the 3 that really jumped out at me.  Otherwise it looks rather similar to mine.  I'm slightly lower on Thielen, Julio, AB, Green and that bunch.  My way of looking at is I'd take the chance on a guy like DJ Moore and at worst he's a WR2 for the long haul rather than having 2 years of possible elite performances from a declining asset in those WR's.  Overall very nice list.  

Zyphros said:

Mike Williams at 20

Sammy Watkins at 25

Tyler Lockett at 28

Click to expand...

I guess you're lower on all 3 of these?

Mike Williams was a top 10 pick, he was extremely effective last year on a per-target basis (both TDs and YPT), and he's just going into his 3rd season.

Watkins is signed long-term to the best passing offense in the NFL, and it looks like he's their top WR now. I moved him down a bunch at the end of the season, since his foot injury seems to be chronic and his performance again did not live up to what he flashed in 2015, but with Hill gone he has top 5 upside.

Lockett looks to be Seattle's best WR. He had a breakout year last year based on ridiculously good efficiency. He won't keep that up, but he has a good chance at an increase in volume based on good things happening when he gets the ball, plus Baldwin likely to pass the reins, plus Seattle likely to be less run-heavy than they were last year (if they return to their 2016-17 levels then that's another 30% more passes than in 2018).

Post-draft TE rankings. PPR, start 3, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 3/11/19.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    George Kittle    SF    25.9    (1)
1    2    Travis Kelce    KC    29.9    (2)
1    3    O.J. Howard    TB    24.8    (3)
1    4    Zach Ertz    PHI    28.8    (4)
2    5    Evan Engram    NYG    25.0    (5)
3    6    T.J. Hockenson    DET    22.2    rook
3    7    Hunter Henry    LAC    24.7    (6)
3    8    Noah Fant    DEN    21.8    rook
4    9    David Njoku    CLE    23.1    (7)
4    10    Eric Ebron    IND    26.4    (8)
5    11    Mark Andrews    BAL    23.0    (10)
5    12    Dallas Goedert    PHI    25.7    (11)
5    13    Irv Smith    MIN    21.1    rook
5    14    Chris Herndon    NYJ    23.5    (12)
5    15    Hayden Hurst    BAL    26.0    (13)
5    16    Jared Cook    NO    32.4    (18)
5    17    Trey Burton    CHI    27.8    (14)
5    18    Gerald Everett    RAM    25.2    (15)
5    19    Austin Hooper    ATL    24.8    (16)
5    20    Jace Sternberger    GB    23.2    rook
5    21    Mike Gesicki    MIA    23.9    (17)
5    22    Ian Thomas    CAR    23.2    (23)
5    23    Vance McDonald    PIT    29.2    (24)
5    24    Jordan Reed    WAS    29.2    (19)
6    25    Drew Sample    CIN    23.4    rook
6    26    Jack Doyle    IND    29.3    (20)
6    27    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    29.8    (21)
6    28    Will Dissly    SEA    23.1    (22)
6    29    Delanie Walker    TEN    35.1    (27)
6    30    Josh Oliver    JAX    22.4    rook
6    31    Adam Shaheen    CHI    25.9    (25)
6    32    Kahale Warring    HOU    22.4    rook
6    33    Greg Olsen    CAR    34.5    (28)
6    34    Tyler Eifert    CIN    29.0    (30)
6    35    Jimmy Graham    GB    32.8    (29)
6    36    Dawson Knox    BUF    22.8    rook
6    37    Jordan Akins    HOU    27.4    (26)
7    38    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    NE    26.9    (39)
7    39    Jason Witten    DAL    37.3    (40)
7    40    Foster Moreau    OAK    22.3    rook
7    41    Blake Jarwin    DAL    25.1    (31)
7    42    Jonnu Smith    TEN    24.0    (32)
7    43    Jordan Thomas    HOU    23.1    (33)
7    44    Tyler Kroft    BUF    26.9    (36)
7    45    Cameron Brate    TB    28.2    (38)
7    46    Tyler Higbee    RAM    26.7    (48)
7    47    Trevon Wesco    NYJ    24.0    rook
7    48    Zach Gentry    PIT    23.0    rook
8    49    Stephen Anderson    NE    26.6    unr
8    50    Jesse James    DET    25.2    (35)
8    51    C.J. Uzomah    CIN    26.6    (34)
8    52    Darren Waller    OAK    27.0    unr
8    53    Mo Alie-Cox    IND    25.9    (37)
8    54    Ricky Seals-Jones    ARI    24.5    (41)
8    55    Alize Mack    NOR    22.4    rook
8    56    Caleb Wilson    ARI    23.1    rook
8    57    Anthony Firkser    TEN    24.5    (44)
8    58    Charles Clay    ARI    30.5    (42)
8    59    Maxx Williams        25.4    (45)
8    60    Nick Vannett    SEA    26.5    (47)
8    61    Dalton Schultz    DAL    23.1    (49)
8    62    Ed Dickson    SEA    32.1    (52)
8    63    Kaden Smith    SF    22.4    rook
8    64    Jake Butt    DEN    24.1    (43)
8    65    Jeff Heuerman    DEN    26.8    (46)
8    66    Tyler Conklin    MIN    24.1    (54)
8    67    Dan Arnold    NO    24.5    (51)

Most of the changes since last time are just slotting in the rookies. I had more to say about the rookies in the other thread, more pre-draft and a little post-draft.

ZWK said:

Watkins is signed long-term to the best passing offense in the NFL, and it looks like he's their top WR now. I moved him down a bunch at the end of the season, since his foot injury seems to be chronic and his performance again did not live up to what he flashed in 2015, but with Hill gone he has top 5 upside.

Click to expand...

It seems fair to point out that for as long as you have been posting your rankings, you have been overly high on Watkins. Couldn't that still be the case?

ZWK said:

2    5    Evan Engram    NYG    25.0    (5)
3    7    Hunter Henry    LAC    24.7    (6)

Click to expand...

Why the tier difference here?

Engram has 109/1299/9 in 2 seasons. Henry has 81/1057/12 in 2 seasons.... while sharing with Gates. They are basically the same age, and Henry is in a better offense. Engram was drafted 23rd overall in 2017, compared to Henry at 35th overall in 2016... not much of a difference.

Just Win Baby said:

It seems fair to point out that for as long as you have been posting your rankings, you have been overly high on Watkins. Couldn't that still be the case?

Click to expand...

It's a possibility, but I also don't want to underrate Watkins now just because I overrated his talent in the past. He is currently ranked as WR19 in FBG redraft PPR rankings, so my take doesn't seem too far out of line.

Just Win Baby said:

Why the tier difference here?

Engram has 109/1299/9 in 2 seasons. Henry has 81/1057/12 in 2 seasons.... while sharing with Gates. They are basically the same age, and Henry is in a better offense. Engram was drafted 23rd overall in 2017, compared to Henry at 35th overall in 2016... not much of a difference.

Click to expand...

Engram has averaged 52 yards per game in the NFL, Henry has averaged 36 yards per game. Engram is much more athletic, and was much more productive in college. Engram was drafted earlier, despite Henry's better blocking. Engram has produced with mediocre quarterbacking, Henry has benefited from having Rivers but that won't last forever. Henry is recovering from an ACL injury. In Henry's favor: he has had his workload limited by Gates, and he has had better per-target stats. But on the whole this feels like pretty strong reason to favor Engram over Henry.

Correct me if I'm wrong but seems as a class you have the rookies ranked pretty low. Do you think it's a weak wr class?

voiceofunreason said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but seems as a class you have the rookies ranked pretty low. Do you think it's a weak wr class?

Click to expand...

It is pretty light at the top, but with somewhat better than usual depth. That follows from how the NFL draft went - the first WR not off the board until pick 25, only 3 WRs in the top 50, but then 8 more WRs picked 51-70. The 2018 draft was fairly similar - here are my WR rankings right after the 2018 draft, and the 2017 draft.

Just Win Baby said:

Can you explain your thinking here? No issue with Adams, but you really think the #2 target in GB is in your 7th tier? I assume you don't have GB TEs or RBs stealing significant workshare.

Click to expand...

How long do you think Allison is the #2 target?

At WR Tyreek is the major flashpoint, obviously. Even after all the news, you still have him ahead of all but 1 rookie WR. Does this mean you’d swap, e.g., this year’s 1.05 for him straight up? If so, you’d be a massive outlier – looking at his thread, the going rate seems to be around a 2020 2nd.

Boyd seems really high for a guy who hasn’t proven he can be a (real-life or fantasy) WR1 three seasons in and whose QB situation is likely to be in flux short-term. Is this something of a Zac Taylor halo effect? ’Id put him below Golladay (whom, to be fair, I’m higher than you on) and honestly most of the rest of Tier 4.

Pettis seems most egregiously undervalued to me. Potential star talent, good QB, great situation. And not to quote myself, but …

Mr. Irrelevant said:

Embrace the barbell strategy. Almost every available roster spot should be filled with one of two classes of players: studs, or players with some chance of becoming studs - even if that chance is relatively small. Someone with a 10% chance of becoming a 90 VBD player (e.g. Dante Pettis) is worth far more than someone with a 90% chance of being a 10 VBD player (e.g. Marvin Jones).

Click to expand...

On the whole, fantastic work as always.