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the hype on him is going to make him out of reach on draft day. so many people talk about wrs who die under reid. remember the hype celek got is all im going to mention he had one legit year in 2009.

Could you also maybe mention how in the world Celek even compares to the player Kelce is/can/will be?

I mean celek did put up 76/971/8 on 112 targets in 2009. both getting too much hype coming out of cincinnati and both are big targets with good talent. kelce is just getting the hype now like celek did years ago. both have the exact same letters in their name just spelled differently.

kelces projections at mfl have him getting under celeks best year with 75/936/6 on 106. all that hype for a projection of less then celeks best year? so i guess there many comparisons you can make in this world.

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brohans this guy needs a nickname and i mean a good one well by popular request here i am to save the day swc style yep i brought you nicknames like randall the touchdown robber cobber or rt2rc as the

I would say it helps his value. If defenses are forced to worry about Tyreek busting a big one over the top, they can't defend the middle of the field as well. If Tyreek wasn't there, defens

The first thing I look at when drafting players is reFPOEPT, second I go with rcFETDPGs.

the hype on him is going to make him out of reach on draft day. so many people talk about wrs who die under reid. remember the hype celek got is all im going to mention he had one legit year in 2009.

Could you also maybe mention how in the world Celek even compares to the player Kelce is/can/will be?

I mean celek did put up 76/971/8 on 112 targets in 2009. both getting too much hype coming out of cincinnati and both are big targets with good talent. kelce is just getting the hype now like celek did years ago. both have the exact same letters in their name just spelled differently.

good catch --- that's kind of weird

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the hype on him is going to make him out of reach on draft day. so many people talk about wrs who die under reid. remember the hype celek got is all im going to mention he had one legit year in 2009.

Could you also maybe mention how in the world Celek even compares to the player Kelce is/can/will be?

I mean celek did put up 76/971/8 on 112 targets in 2009. both getting too much hype coming out of cincinnati and both are big targets with good talent. kelce is just getting the hype now like celek did years ago. both have the exact same letters in their name just spelled differently.

good catch --- that's kind of weird

My mind is blown....

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This cant be said loud enough, frequently enough, or emphasized enough: If Andy Reid can't be trusted to CONSISTENTLY make the best use out of a guy like Jamaal Charles, he can't be trusted to support a TE's fantasy hype.

This isn't A Jimmy Graham or Gronk going to a place where the HOF QB can MAKE it happen. This is people relying on ANDY REID and Alex Smith to make it happen.

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the hype on him is going to make him out of reach on draft day. so many people talk about wrs who die under reid. remember the hype celek got is all im going to mention he had one legit year in 2009.

Could you also maybe mention how in the world Celek even compares to the player Kelce is/can/will be?

I mean celek did put up 76/971/8 on 112 targets in 2009. both getting too much hype coming out of cincinnati and both are big targets with good talent. kelce is just getting the hype now like celek did years ago. both have the exact same letters in their name just spelled differently.

kelces projections at mfl have him getting under celeks best year with 75/936/6 on 106. all that hype for a projection of less then celeks best year? so i guess there many comparisons you can make in this world.

I guess I was thinking more of physical ability. Size wise, the 1" Kelce has on Celek doesn't do much for him, but the couple inch's in vert could. Kelce is clearly faster and more explosive than Celek (4.61 vs 4.79 40's and 10'4" vs 9'4" broad). That alone leads me to believe Kelce can and will be a much better TE than Celek ever could have been.

Kelce had 512 yards after the catch last season, more than any other TE in the league (for reference Odell Beckham Jr had 517) which goes to show what his physical ability can do for him. Comparing the two is pretty comical to me. Projections for next year are nice and all, but when it comes to dynasty leagues, projections really don't do much for me. Talent, ability, and production do. What Kelce did with his first opportunities in the league showed me the sky is the limit with him at his position.

I'm not sure why you think he's getting too much hype. The guy has shown he can be an absolute beast at the position if given the opportunities. Will the opportunities come? Maybe, maybe not. But other than Gronk, what other TE are you thinking has a better chance at opportunities this season? Graham?? Thomas?? Who knows what they'll get with their new teams. With Fasano gone, Kelce is likely stepping into a full time roll. He can do things not many TE's can do with the ball in his hands and certainly more than any TE Reid has been able to work with. I think expecting a Celek like season is selling him short, way short.

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I like Kelce and think he can be a good player, but his hype has him as overrated right now.

Probably, but after the top 2 TEs who would you want?

For price paid to get him, I'd rather have Bennett, Gates (yes, that guy), Olsen, Julius Thomas (despite the scenery change), Heath Miller (so unsexy but every bit as likely to be consistently a better play), Ertz (Eagles likely using him more now), Rivera for sure, is Pitta healthy? Can Reed stay healthy?

Point being, the hype will drive the price outside what can likely easily be found much cheaper. Sure, if the Chiefs and Reid actually do things with Kelce, the talent is there, but I don't see the Chiefs morphing into some mid-range/matchup throwing team all of a sudden.

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I like Kelce and think he can be a good player, but his hype has him as overrated right now.

Probably, but after the top 2 TEs who would you want?

In redraft there is a huge drop off after the top 2 that I would not pay a ton for anyone and would just draft another position.

In dynasty, Kelce holds a little more value, but not enough to warrant getting all this hype. I think people are hoping that Kelce might be the next Gronkowski or Graham or Gates type. Those guys are a rare breed.

Kelce should be seen as a Greg Olsen type. That is not a bad thing, but it is the more factual and likely to happen.

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I like Kelce and think he can be a good player, but his hype has him as overrated right now.

Probably, but after the top 2 TEs who would you want?

In redraft there is a huge drop off after the top 2 that I would not pay a ton for anyone and would just draft another position.

In dynasty, Kelce holds a little more value, but not enough to warrant getting all this hype. I think people are hoping that Kelce may get the next Gronkowski or Graham or Gates type. Those guys are a rare breed.

Kelce should be seen as a Greg Olsen type. That is not a bad thing, but it is the more factual and likely to happen.

If cost was the exact same, which would you rather have for the next 2 years?

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I like Kelce and think he can be a good player, but his hype has him as overrated right now.

Probably, but after the top 2 TEs who would you want?

For price paid to get him, I'd rather have Bennett, Gates (yes, that guy), Olsen, Julius Thomas (despite the scenery change), Heath Miller (so unsexy but every bit as likely to be consistently a better play), Ertz (Eagles likely using him more now), Rivera for sure, is Pitta healthy? Can Reed stay healthy?

Point being, the hype will drive the price outside what can likely easily be found much cheaper. Sure, if the Chiefs and Reid actually do things with Kelce, the talent is there, but I don't see the Chiefs morphing into some mid-range/matchup throwing team all of a sudden.

does anyone really not think kelce will be taken quickly after graham goes in most drafts? those wanting him know they cant wait any longer and they will grab him quicker then they thought once graham goes thats how i think it will happen in most of my drafts since people love to buy the hype. he is good but paying what his price when i can get better production out of olsen and bennett is the route i am going.

to the question of the next two years i will rank it like this in ppr, gronk graham olsen bennett kelce thomas reed allen ertz eifert

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Those people that think Kelce may make this huge jump will be left disappointed. Not because I think Kelce will be bad. I think he will be just fine, but not this high end player.

Arguing that Kelce has this amazing run after catch ability is really dangerous. Kelce is not this speed demon and he not does make a ton of people miss. Does he have some nice speed for a TE? Of course. Does he run through some tackles? Of course however, there are tons of tight ends this year who had a higher ypc than Kelce. Such notable guys include, Gronk, Cameron, Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and Delanie Walker.

I think many are just getting far too excited about a good player hoping he is going to be great.

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Those people that think Kelce may make this huge jump will be left disappointed. Not because I think Kelce will be bad. I think he will be just fine, but not this high end player.

Arguing that Kelce has this amazing run after catch ability is really dangerous. Kelce is not this speed demon and he not does make a ton of people miss. Does he have some nice speed for a TE? Of course. Does he run through some tackles? Of course however, there are tons of tight ends this year who had a higher ypc than Kelce. Such notable guys include, Gronk, Cameron, Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and Delanie Walker.

I think many are just getting far too excited about a good player hoping he is going to be great.

PFF has a stat called Yards per Route Run which takes into account the snaps where someone went into a route, which most would agree can give a better idea of actual production.

Kelce was 2nd to only Gronk (2.53) with 2.26.

Some others - Graham (1.70), Bennett (1.66), Clay (1.56), Gates (1.56), Miller (1.48)

----------

ETA: Dwayne Allen and Jordan Cameron were both injured last season and didn't break 30 catches. I think using them in your example isn't bringing much substance.

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Those people that think Kelce may make this huge jump will be left disappointed. Not because I think Kelce will be bad. I think he will be just fine, but not this high end player.

Arguing that Kelce has this amazing run after catch ability is really dangerous. Kelce is not this speed demon and he not does make a ton of people miss. Does he have some nice speed for a TE? Of course. Does he run through some tackles? Of course however, there are tons of tight ends this year who had a higher ypc than Kelce. Such notable guys include, Gronk, Cameron, Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and Delanie Walker.

I think many are just getting far too excited about a good player hoping he is going to be great.

PFF has a stat called Yards per Route Run which takes into account the snaps where someone went into a route, which most would agree can give a better idea of actual production.

Kelce was 2nd to only Gronk (2.53) with 2.26.

Some others - Graham (1.70), Bennett (1.66), Clay (1.56), Gates (1.56), Miller (1.48)

----------

ETA: Dwayne Allen and Jordan Cameron were both injured last season and didn't break 30 catches. I think using them in your example isn't bringing much substance.

This is my point. You are finding a stat that compares him to Gronk. In the end it comes down to what type of production are you going to actually get out of Kelce in fantasy?

What type of jump in production are those expecting out of Kelce for next year?

Jordan Cameron to me is an optimal example. He was coming off a 2013 year where he had 80 receptions, for 917 yards and 7 td's. He averaged 62 ypg and everyone had him as the next guy to join Gronk and Graham. In fact I too was in that camp to a certain degree. The problem is there are very few Gronks, Grahams and Gates of the past and I don't think Kelce is going to amount to those guys.

I don't have a hate on for Kelce, and I think he is a lock to finish as a top 10 TE, but I just don't see him being the next top tier guy.

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Those people that think Kelce may make this huge jump will be left disappointed. Not because I think Kelce will be bad. I think he will be just fine, but not this high end player.

Arguing that Kelce has this amazing run after catch ability is really dangerous. Kelce is not this speed demon and he not does make a ton of people miss. Does he have some nice speed for a TE? Of course. Does he run through some tackles? Of course however, there are tons of tight ends this year who had a higher ypc than Kelce. Such notable guys include, Gronk, Cameron, Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and Delanie Walker.

I think many are just getting far too excited about a good player hoping he is going to be great.

PFF has a stat called Yards per Route Run which takes into account the snaps where someone went into a route, which most would agree can give a better idea of actual production.

Kelce was 2nd to only Gronk (2.53) with 2.26.

Some others - Graham (1.70), Bennett (1.66), Clay (1.56), Gates (1.56), Miller (1.48)

----------

ETA: Dwayne Allen and Jordan Cameron were both injured last season and didn't break 30 catches. I think using them in your example isn't bringing much substance.

This is my point. You are finding a stat that compares him to Gronk. In the end it comes down to what type of production are you going to actually get out of Kelce in fantasy?

What type of jump in production are those expecting out of Kelce for next year?

Jordan Cameron to me is an optimal example. He was coming off a 2013 year where he had 80 receptions, for 917 yards and 7 td's. He averaged 62 ypg and everyone had him as the next guy to join Gronk and Graham. In fact I too was in that camp to a certain degree. The problem is there are very few Gronks, Grahams and Gates of the past and I don't think Kelce is going to amount to those guys.

I don't have a hate on for Kelce, and I think he is a lock to finish as a top 10 TE, but I just don't see him being the next top tier guy.

I feel that opportunities are a poor reason to pass on a guy with the ability to be a top TE in the league. To me he has the physical attributes to be a Gronk type TE. Reed may or may not change, but opportunities are fluid in the NFL. Talent and ability aren't.

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come eat your crow, reid haters

I like Kelce a lot, but what are people projecting for next year? I suspect he'll see between 90 and 110 targets, ranking him somewhere between 5th-12th among TEs. His catch rate will probably drop down closer to 70% (Vernon Davis was around 60% with Smith), giving him only a modest boost on last year's numbers. He and Fasano combined for 123 targets, so it's not like the sky is the limit here in KC. Bowe only got 95 targets. I'm sure they'll utilize Maclin more than that.

Why would you expect the catch rate of Davis, the stretch the field target for the 9rs, to match or be comparable to the catch rate of Kelce, who is used in a much different capacity in the Chiefs offense? Expecting Maclin and Davis to have comparable catch rates is comprehensible I suppose, but you make a major leap when you try to determine catch rates from the position played rather than the role played in an offense.

Was anyone actually used to stretch the field with Alex Smith at QB? Kelce and Davis are not dissimilar talents. Regardless of ability or use, his catch rate is unlikely to remain at last year's rate.

Also, I'd like to add that you need to work on reading comprehension. I specifically said I expect Kelce to be closer to 70% while noting that Davis was closer to 60% with the same QB, so obviously I am not expecting the catch rate of Davis.

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I like Kelce and think he can be a good player, but his hype has him as overrated right now.

Probably, but after the top 2 TEs who would you want?

For price paid to get him, I'd rather have Bennett, Gates (yes, that guy), Olsen, Julius Thomas (despite the scenery change), Heath Miller (so unsexy but every bit as likely to be consistently a better play), Ertz (Eagles likely using him more now), Rivera for sure, is Pitta healthy? Can Reed stay healthy?

Point being, the hype will drive the price outside what can likely easily be found much cheaper. Sure, if the Chiefs and Reid actually do things with Kelce, the talent is there, but I don't see the Chiefs morphing into some mid-range/matchup throwing team all of a sudden.

Take price out of it. Who do you put above him as the legit #3 TE now? I don't think I can do that with the recently moved J Thomas....

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PFF are projecting Gronk way ahead of the rest, Olsen as number two, and Kelce, Graham, Bennett and Witten with pretty much the exact same production in 1PPR for 2015. Olsen is just 6 pts ahead of the others. They have Julius some 30 pts below...

I'm in a 12 team IDP startup now where Kelce went 3.07 as the third TE. Jimmy went 2.09 and Gronk went 1.06. At 3.07 you REALLY have to be confident in him taking the next step. I believe in him a lot, but that early is way too risky for me.

Btw, did anyone catch this earlier today:

Reid says Travis Kelce played last year at 250. Says he could easily be a really good player at 265, like he was in college.

Considering how strong he was last year at 250.... :headbang:

Edited by Louche
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come eat your crow, reid haters

I like Kelce a lot, but what are people projecting for next year? I suspect he'll see between 90 and 110 targets, ranking him somewhere between 5th-12th among TEs. His catch rate will probably drop down closer to 70% (Vernon Davis was around 60% with Smith), giving him only a modest boost on last year's numbers. He and Fasano combined for 123 targets, so it's not like the sky is the limit here in KC. Bowe only got 95 targets. I'm sure they'll utilize Maclin more than that.

Why would you expect the catch rate of Davis, the stretch the field target for the 9rs, to match or be comparable to the catch rate of Kelce, who is used in a much different capacity in the Chiefs offense? Expecting Maclin and Davis to have comparable catch rates is comprehensible I suppose, but you make a major leap when you try to determine catch rates from the position played rather than the role played in an offense.

Was anyone actually used to stretch the field with Alex Smith at QB? Kelce and Davis are not dissimilar talents. Regardless of ability or use, his catch rate is unlikely to remain at last year's rate.

Also, I'd like to add that you need to work on reading comprehension. I specifically said I expect Kelce to be closer to 70% while noting that Davis was closer to 60% with the same QB, so obviously I am not expecting the catch rate of Davis.

And Maclin was signed to run slants, digs and outs? Yes, Davis ran deeper patterns with (and after) Smith. Just as DeSean won't have the catch rate of Kendall Wright, Davis won't have the catch rate of Kelce.

The addition of Maclin should help Kelce in many ways including sustaining a high catch rate. Smith has never been a force the ball into coverage QB. He targets open route runners yielding relatively high completion rates and catch rates. There is no reason to project a decline.

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I like Kelce and think he can be a good player, but his hype has him as overrated right now.

Probably, but after the top 2 TEs who would you want?

In redraft there is a huge drop off after the top 2 that I would not pay a ton for anyone and would just draft another position.

Everyone, please re-read this response. Then re-read it again.

When you have a position with two or three clear studs and then a pool of four, or six, or ten interchangeable guys, the correct answer as to who you should draft third or fourth at the position is: nobody. Let someone else reach for the top of the tier.

I was confident Kelce was undervalued heading into redrafts last year (and wound up owning him in more than half my leagues as a result). I'm nearly as confident Kelce will be overvalued heading into redrafts this year. Yes, he could pull an Andrew Luck and lap the field after being drafted 4th at his position ... but that's a once-a-decade occurrence. The other 9 out of 10 times, you're drafting a guy at his ceiling - which is pretty much the opposite of winning fantasy strategy.

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I like Kelce and think he can be a good player, but his hype has him as overrated right now.

Probably, but after the top 2 TEs who would you want?

In redraft there is a huge drop off after the top 2 that I would not pay a ton for anyone and would just draft another position.

Everyone, please re-read this response. Then re-read it again.

When you have a position with two or three clear studs and then a pool of four, or six, or ten interchangeable guys, the correct answer as to who you should draft third or fourth at the position is: nobody. Let someone else reach for the top of the tier.

I was confident Kelce was undervalued heading into redrafts last year (and wound up owning him in more than half my leagues as a result). I'm nearly as confident Kelce will be overvalued heading into redrafts this year. Yes, he could pull an Andrew Luck and lap the field after being drafted 4th at his position ... but that's a once-a-decade occurrence. The other 9 out of 10 times, you're drafting a guy at his ceiling - which is pretty much the opposite of winning fantasy strategy.

Who are your "...two or three clear studs..." at TE? I'd like to meet them. There's Gronk and ..................? I agree with your point that drafting the top of the tier frequently is unwise, but I'm unsure there is anyone on tier 1 with Gronk. Tier 2 likely is Graham, Kelce, Olsen, and Bennett, but any order of finish between them is conceivable.
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I like Kelce and think he can be a good player, but his hype has him as overrated right now.

Probably, but after the top 2 TEs who would you want?

For price paid to get him, I'd rather have Bennett, Gates (yes, that guy), Olsen, Julius Thomas (despite the scenery change), Heath Miller (so unsexy but every bit as likely to be consistently a better play), Ertz (Eagles likely using him more now), Rivera for sure, is Pitta healthy? Can Reed stay healthy?

Point being, the hype will drive the price outside what can likely easily be found much cheaper. Sure, if the Chiefs and Reid actually do things with Kelce, the talent is there, but I don't see the Chiefs morphing into some mid-range/matchup throwing team all of a sudden.

Take price out of it. Who do you put above him as the legit #3 TE now? I don't think I can do that with the recently moved J Thomas....

I think Olsen, Bennett, maybe Eifert or Ertz all could be that guy this year.

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I honestly can't put Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron or Martellus Bennett ahead of Travis Kelce. In dyno I have Kelce ahead of Olsen as well.

this is what hype does.

Exactly. A year ago, these same names (Julius, Cameron especially) were in the same spot people are talking up Kelce now. Thomas had a major change of scenery and Cameron didn't do it so how someone can say they "can't" see doing this indicates some strong preconceived notions. Things change and it seems like a LOT of people have this idea that Andy Reid is suddenly going to just use Kelce the way fantasy owners think he should be. That doesn't always happen. Andy Reid can't even seem to use Jamaal Charles properly. What makes us think he will go use Kelce?

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I like Kelce and think he can be a good player, but his hype has him as overrated right now.

Probably, but after the top 2 TEs who would you want?

In redraft there is a huge drop off after the top 2 that I would not pay a ton for anyone and would just draft another position.

Everyone, please re-read this response. Then re-read it again.

When you have a position with two or three clear studs and then a pool of four, or six, or ten interchangeable guys, the correct answer as to who you should draft third or fourth at the position is: nobody. Let someone else reach for the top of the tier.

I was confident Kelce was undervalued heading into redrafts last year (and wound up owning him in more than half my leagues as a result). I'm nearly as confident Kelce will be overvalued heading into redrafts this year. Yes, he could pull an Andrew Luck and lap the field after being drafted 4th at his position ... but that's a once-a-decade occurrence. The other 9 out of 10 times, you're drafting a guy at his ceiling - which is pretty much the opposite of winning fantasy strategy.

this is pretty much spot on sound advice....

Kelce will not offer as much value this year......could he still help you gain an advantage at TE most weeks and win games?.....you bet.....you just better hit on some of your sleeper picks after him if you choose to jump on him early.....at the price you will have to pay, you may be passing on impact players at other positions....assuming everybody stays healthy at TE IMO Kelce could finish anywhere from TE2 to TE7.....I love me some Kelce but I'm not sold that TE3 or TE4 is that much of a lock and that much of a weekly difference maker over the TE5 thru say TE10....so it might be best to let someone else over pay a little, draft a stud at another position when you would have had to take Kelce.....and then sit back and let one of the other guys fall to you several rounds later.....

IMO I see Gronk and Graham going very early in most drafts......somebody jumping on Kelce shortly there after.....and then a big lull with a ton of value at TE falling and falling as everybody says "we'll I just keep waiting until some of the other owners grab Bennett, Olsen, Thomas, Cameron, Witten, (i could go on) etc.... and then I'll jump in and snag one".....and that could go on for awhile.....and then I think there is even another group after that people will be willing to wait for......Rudolph, Eifert, Daniels, etc......

KC gets the AFC and NFC North teams this year with the two swing games being BUF at home and HOU on the road.....potentially a pretty nasty schedule....Reid will still chuck it when he needs to, and they may need to a little to keep up with some of the teams they play.....

Charles will continue to be the focus, Maclin is an upgrade, and I expect KC to use a pretty high pick on WR....I think they have learned their lesson....IMO, the local boy DGB makes too much sense as a compliment to Maclin and Kelce.....6-5 freak, red zone, etc....I like Kelce a lot as a player, I'm just not sure numbers will be there to justify where you would have to pull the trigger on him.....

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I honestly can't put Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron or Martellus Bennett ahead of Travis Kelce. In dyno I have Kelce ahead of Olsen as well.

this is what hype does.

Exactly. A year ago, these same names (Julius, Cameron especially) were in the same spot people are talking up Kelce now. Thomas had a major change of scenery and Cameron didn't do it so how someone can say they "can't" see doing this indicates some strong preconceived notions. Things change and it seems like a LOT of people have this idea that Andy Reid is suddenly going to just use Kelce the way fantasy owners think he should be. That doesn't always happen. Andy Reid can't even seem to use Jamaal Charles properly. What makes us think he will go use Kelce?

Kelce will be 26 shortly after the season starts. The other guys mentioned... I know Olsen is 30. I know Bennett is nearing 30. I'm not sure how old Cameron is, but his career will be cut short with another concussion or two, which is what you saw from his lack of production last year. Julius Thomas - I'm absolutely terrified of what being in Jax will do to his value because his value was obviously the HOF QB he had working with him.

So, when you start talking about a dynasty - yes, I can easily see how someone puts Kelce above the rest of those guys. He's that much younger and is an elite talent - he did what he did last year with Alex effing Smith throwing him the ball and Andy Reid incompetently planning. It doesn't get much worse... well, other than going to Jax, Oakland or Cleveland. The guy is an elite athlete. Similar to the Gronk's... there are Kelce brothers both playing in the NFL.

Something that was touched upon above, but not really understood was the 512 yards after the catch Kelce had. He had 862 yards total. 60% of his production is coming after the catch. I'd invite you to find other players who aren't RB's that have that kind of production after the catch. He also led his team in receiving last year. Most of his catches are coming within 5 yards of the LOS because Smith can't throw much farther.

You add all of this up with the news that he wasn't 100% after microfracture surgery last year, and he was intentionally limited at the beginning of the season... is it hype? Or is it the buildup to a TE that could be top 5 over the next 5 years?

I'm taking the latter.

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Rotoworld:

Chiefs coach Andy Reid wants Travis Kelce to bulk up for 2015, gaining as much as 15 pounds.

Kelce spent his breakout 2014 playing at 250, but Reid thinks he can retain his special athleticism and speed all the way up to 265. "It helps you in protection," Reid said. "He played as high as 265 at the college level, where I considered him a pretty good blocker. So he can function even with a little more weight added." Playing at 265 would put Kelce squarely in Rob Gronkowski territory. As good as Kelce was on limited snaps (66.6 percent) last season, he still has scary room for improvement.
Source: ESPN.com
Mar 25 - 5:11 PM
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Kelce is very talented and fun to watch but, until we see otherwise, KC is the Jamaal Charles show and all other players are fantasy risks.

I do think Kelce could easily outproduce last year if Reid wanted to scheme for him (and if Alex Smith wouldn't require Kelce to be at least 10 miles from the nearest defender before throwing it). I just don't expect that at this point. Maybe their draft or pre-season will create some reason for optimisim. My guess is that Maclin will cut into TE production instead of opening things up for more TE production.

For now, I'm thinking the exact same thing several others have already posted: Graham/Olsen/Bennett/Kelce are interchangeable 2nd tier guys for redraft purposes. Target the 4th of that group and don't panic if you miss.

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Kelce is very talented and fun to watch but, until we see otherwise, KC is the Jamaal Charles show and all other players are fantasy risks.

I do think Kelce could easily outproduce last year if Reid wanted to scheme for him (and if Alex Smith wouldn't require Kelce to be at least 10 miles from the nearest defender before throwing it). I just don't expect that at this point. Maybe their draft or pre-season will create some reason for optimisim. My guess is that Maclin will cut into TE production instead of opening things up for more TE production.

For now, I'm thinking the exact same thing several others have already posted: Graham/Olsen/Bennett/Kelce are interchangeable 2nd tier guys for redraft purposes. Target the 4th of that group and don't panic if you miss.

Isn't Maclin a speed, go route kind of guy?

Alex Smith doesn't throw the ball over 5 yards long so I'd guess Maclin cutting into Kelce's targets is less likely than the opposite.

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Kelce is going to be one of the most over-drafted players this year.

Give me Gronk as early as the 1.03 and play catch-ups with the RBs, imo.

Agreed. I own him in dynasty and value him highly there. But in redraft, I'm with the "Gronk or stream" crowd this year.

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You add all of this up with the news that he wasn't 100% after microfracture surgery last year, and he was intentionally limited at the beginning of the season... is it hype? Or is it the buildup to a TE that could be top 5 over the next 5 years?

I'm taking the latter.

If you're talking about dynasty, then sure, you bet. But in redraft, I don't care one iota about what a guy might be capable of 5 years from now. And where's the value in a guy who "could be top 5" if you have to spend a top-5 pick at the position to get him?

You know who else could be a top-5 TE this season (and for the next 5 years, for that matter)? Zach Ertz. More productive offense, fewer serious competitors for targets ... and currently going off the boards about 60 picks behind Kelce.

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PFF are projecting Gronk way ahead of the rest, Olsen as number two, and Kelce, Graham, Bennett and Witten with pretty much the exact same production in 1PPR for 2015. Olsen is just 6 pts ahead of the others. They have Julius some 30 pts below...

I'm in a 12 team IDP startup now where Kelce went 3.07 as the third TE. Jimmy went 2.09 and Gronk went 1.06. At 3.07 you REALLY have to be confident in him taking the next step. I believe in him a lot, but that early is way too risky for me.

Btw, did anyone catch this earlier today:

Reid says Travis Kelce played last year at 250. Says he could easily be a really good player at 265, like he was in college.

Considering how strong he was last year at 250.... :headbang:

Why is this a good thing? Let's ignore Gronk, he is special. Why would you want him to bulk up? See the post below about Reid. Do you really like hearing that Reid wants him to bulk up to help in protection? Do you really want him to become more like Fasano? Maybe a couple more red zone looks (like Gronk in run formation), but they just paid a lot for Maclin, so maybe Kelce stays in more to help with protection on pass plays. I am not sure this is a good thing.

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You add all of this up with the news that he wasn't 100% after microfracture surgery last year, and he was intentionally limited at the beginning of the season... is it hype? Or is it the buildup to a TE that could be top 5 over the next 5 years?

I'm taking the latter.

If you're talking about dynasty, then sure, you bet. But in redraft, I don't care one iota about what a guy might be capable of 5 years from now. And where's the value in a guy who "could be top 5" if you have to spend a top-5 pick at the position to get him?

You know who else could be a top-5 TE this season (and for the next 5 years, for that matter)? Zach Ertz. More productive offense, fewer serious competitors for targets ... and currently going off the boards about 60 picks behind Kelce.

and finishing "top 5" (redraft) really doesn't do you much good if TE5 does not finish significantly ahead of TE10-12......sometimes in the "top whatever" there is only a few points difference in separation.....TE10 might only be a few points behind TE5.....you have to project and kind of see where you think the tiers will break.....cause if you go get TE5 several rounds before I take TE10 and they finish pretty close, I actually (technically should have) gained an advantage on you cause I am close at TE and probably should have made up the difference plus some at another position......

Kelce may in fact finish top 5.....but whats the weekly advantage over TE10 or TE12.......Gronk and Graham seem to give you a pretty significant advantage each week......but right now I think we are throwing darts at TE3 thru TE12......

(I do think some are discounting Thomas a little too much....he is still a tough matchup no matter what system or QB is throwing, but he will go off the board pretty quick too)

Edited by Stinkin Ref
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You add all of this up with the news that he wasn't 100% after microfracture surgery last year, and he was intentionally limited at the beginning of the season... is it hype? Or is it the buildup to a TE that could be top 5 over the next 5 years?

I'm taking the latter.

If you're talking about dynasty, then sure, you bet. But in redraft, I don't care one iota about what a guy might be capable of 5 years from now. And where's the value in a guy who "could be top 5" if you have to spend a top-5 pick at the position to get him?

You know who else could be a top-5 TE this season (and for the next 5 years, for that matter)? Zach Ertz. More productive offense, fewer serious competitors for targets ... and currently going off the boards about 60 picks behind Kelce.

What is the point of addressing the redraft situation when I open my post with discussing the dynasty nature of a guy? I never mentioned a draft position. No #### Sherlock.

And no, Ertz is not as good as Kelce. Do yourself a favor and go check out the history of Chip offenses and TE production.

I own Kelce, Ertz and Eifert in a dynasty because other people were down on them or outright dropped them.

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You add all of this up with the news that he wasn't 100% after microfracture surgery last year, and he was intentionally limited at the beginning of the season... is it hype? Or is it the buildup to a TE that could be top 5 over the next 5 years?

I'm taking the latter.

If you're talking about dynasty, then sure, you bet. But in redraft, I don't care one iota about what a guy might be capable of 5 years from now. And where's the value in a guy who "could be top 5" if you have to spend a top-5 pick at the position to get him?

You know who else could be a top-5 TE this season (and for the next 5 years, for that matter)? Zach Ertz. More productive offense, fewer serious competitors for targets ... and currently going off the boards about 60 picks behind Kelce.

What is the point of addressing the redraft situation when I open my post with discussing the dynasty nature of a guy? I never mentioned a draft position. No #### Sherlock.

And no, Ertz is not as good as Kelce. Do yourself a favor and go check out the history of Chip offenses and TE production.

I own Kelce, Ertz and Eifert in a dynasty because other people were down on them or outright dropped them.

You are missing the point. Who cares if he is top 5 the next 5 years if top 5 means he is only a little bit better than a top 10 guy the next 5 years. Kelce is not in the same zip code as Gronk or Graham (when he was with Saints). Therefore how valuable is Kelce and does the hype justify how high some guys are taking Kelce in start ups. For the record I don't think the gap between Ertz and Kelce is very big at all. Next years time there might be a thread started about Ebron being the next best guy as was the case with Cameron last off season.

I would not pay premium on any TE's except Gronk in dynasty and in redraft. Had Graham stayed with Brees I would argue for him as well.

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You are missing the point. Who cares if he is top 5 the next 5 years if top 5 means he is only a little bit better than a top 10 guy the next 5 years. Kelce is not in the same zip code as Gronk or Graham (when he was with Saints). Therefore how valuable is Kelce and does the hype justify how high some guys are taking Kelce in start ups. For the record I don't think the gap between Ertz and Kelce is very big at all. Next years time there might be a thread started about Ebron being the next best guy as was the case with Cameron last off season.

I would not pay premium on any TE's except Gronk in dynasty and in redraft. Had Graham stayed with Brees I would argue for him as well.

I agree to a certain extent if your point is "don't pay the premium" - my point is you missed the boat and for the next five years you're going to have this:

2014:

#5 TE - Olsen, 220.8 points.

#10 TE - J. Thomas, 163.9 points.

2013:

#5 TE - Witten, 206.1 points.

#10 TE - D. Walker, 153.1 points.

It works out to about 3-4 points per game. Not world beating, but it probably means at least one victory during the regular season.

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You add all of this up with the news that he wasn't 100% after microfracture surgery last year, and he was intentionally limited at the beginning of the season... is it hype? Or is it the buildup to a TE that could be top 5 over the next 5 years?

I'm taking the latter.

If you're talking about dynasty, then sure, you bet. But in redraft, I don't care one iota about what a guy might be capable of 5 years from now. And where's the value in a guy who "could be top 5" if you have to spend a top-5 pick at the position to get him?

You know who else could be a top-5 TE this season (and for the next 5 years, for that matter)? Zach Ertz. More productive offense, fewer serious competitors for targets ... and currently going off the boards about 60 picks behind Kelce.

and finishing "top 5" (redraft) really doesn't do you much good if TE5 does not finish significantly ahead of TE10-12......sometimes in the "top whatever" there is only a few points difference in separation.....TE10 might only be a few points behind TE5.....you have to project and kind of see where you think the tiers will break.....cause if you go get TE5 several rounds before I take TE10 and they finish pretty close, I actually (technically should have) gained an advantage on you cause I am close at TE and probably should have made up the difference plus some at another position......

Kelce may in fact finish top 5.....but whats the weekly advantage over TE10 or TE12.......Gronk and Graham seem to give you a pretty significant advantage each week......but right now I think we are throwing darts at TE3 thru TE12......

(I do think some are discounting Thomas a little too much....he is still a tough matchup no matter what system or QB is throwing, but he will go off the board pretty quick too)

I'd just like to point out Gronk was about the #8 ranked TE (magazine ranking) going into his second season. A good argument could have, and probably was, made that there was not much advantage to taking Gronk over the #10 or 12 ranked TE either.

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You add all of this up with the news that he wasn't 100% after microfracture surgery last year, and he was intentionally limited at the beginning of the season... is it hype? Or is it the buildup to a TE that could be top 5 over the next 5 years?

I'm taking the latter.

If you're talking about dynasty, then sure, you bet. But in redraft, I don't care one iota about what a guy might be capable of 5 years from now. And where's the value in a guy who "could be top 5" if you have to spend a top-5 pick at the position to get him?

You know who else could be a top-5 TE this season (and for the next 5 years, for that matter)? Zach Ertz. More productive offense, fewer serious competitors for targets ... and currently going off the boards about 60 picks behind Kelce.

and finishing "top 5" (redraft) really doesn't do you much good if TE5 does not finish significantly ahead of TE10-12......sometimes in the "top whatever" there is only a few points difference in separation.....TE10 might only be a few points behind TE5.....you have to project and kind of see where you think the tiers will break.....cause if you go get TE5 several rounds before I take TE10 and they finish pretty close, I actually (technically should have) gained an advantage on you cause I am close at TE and probably should have made up the difference plus some at another position......

Kelce may in fact finish top 5.....but whats the weekly advantage over TE10 or TE12.......Gronk and Graham seem to give you a pretty significant advantage each week......but right now I think we are throwing darts at TE3 thru TE12......

(I do think some are discounting Thomas a little too much....he is still a tough matchup no matter what system or QB is throwing, but he will go off the board pretty quick too)

I'd just like to point out Gronk was about the #8 ranked TE (magazine ranking) going into his second season. A good argument could have, and probably was, made that there was not much advantage to taking Gronk over the #10 or 12 ranked TE either.

Why wasn't Gronk higher? Because of the presence of Hernandez (which was a wrong assumption). Why is Kelce where he is at ... because of recent injury, Andy Reid play calling, QB stinkage, etc. Will all this continue to hold Kelce back, maybe, maybe not. Seems to me if you can figure out what universal perceptions are wrong you have a better chance of hitting on the next top player.

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PFF are projecting Gronk way ahead of the rest, Olsen as number two, and Kelce, Graham, Bennett and Witten with pretty much the exact same production in 1PPR for 2015. Olsen is just 6 pts ahead of the others. They have Julius some 30 pts below...

I'm in a 12 team IDP startup now where Kelce went 3.07 as the third TE. Jimmy went 2.09 and Gronk went 1.06. At 3.07 you REALLY have to be confident in him taking the next step. I believe in him a lot, but that early is way too risky for me.

Btw, did anyone catch this earlier today:

OS2ZDjjR_normal.jpegTerez A. Paylor @TerezPaylor

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Reid says Travis Kelce played last year at 250. Says he could easily be a really good player at 265, like he was in college.

3:31 PM - 24 Mar 2015

Considering how strong he was last year at 250.... :headbang:

Why is this a good thing? Let's ignore Gronk, he is special. Why would you want him to bulk up? See the post below about Reid. Do you really like hearing that Reid wants him to bulk up to help in protection? Do you really want him to become more like Fasano? Maybe a couple more red zone looks (like Gronk in run formation), but they just paid a lot for Maclin, so maybe Kelce stays in more to help with protection on pass plays. I am not sure this is a good thing.
Lol, why would I want him to become more like Fasano? I think you're reading way too much into the weight gain. They're not going to bring him up to 275. He played at 260 in college. Kelce has always been known as a good physical blocker. That's where the Witten and Gronk comparisons came from when he was a prospect. He's a double threat TE with an extremely physical playing style. I think the extra 10-15 pounds will only help him. Edited by Louche
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I am tempering my expectations for TK, not because I don't like him. Believe me I can make an argument that he is the #2 TE. But the Chiefs may have the worst online in the league now ( at least according to the folks at Sirius). The loss of Hudson and the developing bust of Fisher top my list of concerns.

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