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Curious where people would slot him into the rookie class in terms of value.

To put it another way, what sort of rookie pick would you give up for Kelce?

I'm trying to gauge relative value of him here vs. the current rookie class since we've seen so little of him actually play in the NFL.

I would rank Kelce below Eric Ebron and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (and potentially Colt Lyerla), but he compares favorably with that next tier of this rookie class of Tight Ends. Tight End value is difficult to gauge. There are a number of intriguing young prospects at the position, so I would advise taking an inventory of them in your league to get a sense of how your leaguemates value them, then, depending on the scarcity or abundance of available talent at the position, I would deal accordingly. For every Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas, there seem to be a number of guys who just don’t pan out, for one reason or another. In fact, I even signed and released both Cameron and Thomas a season before they broke out. Sometimes you need a combination of luck, patience and an available roster spot to burn to land the next emerging TE.
As for Kelce as a long-term prospect, there is much to like. He is a full-effort player. However, that can be a double-edged sword, as that can also expose him to injuries. Kelce plays angry and never shies away from contact. His athleticism and effort make him a very intriguing prospect. A word of caution, however: Kelce is returning from microfracture surgery, and history does not bode well for a speedy return, and trying to emerge as a first year player at the TE position is already a difficult task.
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The first thing I look at when drafting players is reFPOEPT, second I go with rcFETDPGs.

Curious where people would slot him into the rookie class in terms of value.

To put it another way, what sort of rookie pick would you give up for Kelce?

I'm trying to gauge relative value of him here vs. the current rookie class since we've seen so little of him actually play in the NFL.

I'd probably put him in the ASJ/Amaro tier. Would have ASJ higher most likely, but probably a toss-up with Amaro. Would lean Kelce in non-PPR, Amaro in TE premium and about equal in 1 PPR.

Kelce has a quicker path to relevance, but age and the knee surgery have reduced my expectations.

Edited by cdubz
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Rotoworld:

Second-year Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (knee) isn't participating in OTAs.

Coach Andy Reid proclaimed last month that Kelce was "doing everything" in the Chiefs' offseason program, but that's apparently not the case. The No. 63 overall pick of last year's draft underwent microfracture surgery in October. All signs still point toward Kelce being ready for camp. He'll be worth a TE2 flier in re-draft leagues if he's healthy.
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Curious where people would slot him into the rookie class in terms of value.

To put it another way, what sort of rookie pick would you give up for Kelce?

I'm trying to gauge relative value of him here vs. the current rookie class since we've seen so little of him actually play in the NFL.

I'd probably put him in the ASJ/Amaro tier. Would have ASJ higher most likely, but probably a toss-up with Amaro. Would lean Kelce in non-PPR, Amaro in TE premium and about equal in 1 PPR.

Kelce has a quicker path to relevance, but age and the knee surgery have reduced my expectations.

Age? He's 24.

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Curious where people would slot him into the rookie class in terms of value.

To put it another way, what sort of rookie pick would you give up for Kelce?

I'm trying to gauge relative value of him here vs. the current rookie class since we've seen so little of him actually play in the NFL.

I'd probably put him in the ASJ/Amaro tier. Would have ASJ higher most likely, but probably a toss-up with Amaro. Would lean Kelce in non-PPR, Amaro in TE premium and about equal in 1 PPR.

Kelce has a quicker path to relevance, but age and the knee surgery have reduced my expectations.

Age? He's 24.

And will turn 25 in early October. For comparison, Rob Gronkowski is less than 6 months older than him.

How many NFL snaps does he have under his belt again?

ASJ is a full 3 years younger and Jace is over 2.5 years younger.

Obviously his age is not the primary evaluation mechanism here, but are you saying his age doesn't matter at all?

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Curious where people would slot him into the rookie class in terms of value.

To put it another way, what sort of rookie pick would you give up for Kelce?

I'm trying to gauge relative value of him here vs. the current rookie class since we've seen so little of him actually play in the NFL.

I'd probably put him in the ASJ/Amaro tier. Would have ASJ higher most likely, but probably a toss-up with Amaro. Would lean Kelce in non-PPR, Amaro in TE premium and about equal in 1 PPR.

Kelce has a quicker path to relevance, but age and the knee surgery have reduced my expectations.

Age? He's 24.

And will turn 25 in early October. For comparison, Rob Gronkowski is less than 6 months older than him.

How many NFL snaps does he have under his belt again?

ASJ is a full 3 years younger and Jace is over 2.5 years younger.

Obviously his age is not the primary evaluation mechanism here, but are you saying his age doesn't matter at all?

I'm not saying it doesn't matter at all, but I wouldn't use it to rank players when we're talking about guys that young with that much unknown about talent and ability. You're talking about 5+ years of Kelce and 7+ years of Amaro. I think comparing their age is thinking too much into it. Pick the guy that you think is the better player and that will help you for a few years. Just my opinion.

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Curious where people would slot him into the rookie class in terms of value.

To put it another way, what sort of rookie pick would you give up for Kelce?

I'm trying to gauge relative value of him here vs. the current rookie class since we've seen so little of him actually play in the NFL.

I'd probably put him in the ASJ/Amaro tier. Would have ASJ higher most likely, but probably a toss-up with Amaro. Would lean Kelce in non-PPR, Amaro in TE premium and about equal in 1 PPR.

Kelce has a quicker path to relevance, but age and the knee surgery have reduced my expectations.

Age? He's 24.

And will turn 25 in early October. For comparison, Rob Gronkowski is less than 6 months older than him.

How many NFL snaps does he have under his belt again?

ASJ is a full 3 years younger and Jace is over 2.5 years younger.

Obviously his age is not the primary evaluation mechanism here, but are you saying his age doesn't matter at all?

It matters but Jimmy Graham was a 24 year old rookie like Kelce.

Not many TE's averaged 16 YPR, as well as leading his team in catches, yardage and TD's.

I have no problem with people ranking ASJ and Amaro over Kelce with age as the deciding factor, but I also wouldn't ignore Kelce simply because of his age.

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Curious where people would slot him into the rookie class in terms of value.

To put it another way, what sort of rookie pick would you give up for Kelce?

I'm trying to gauge relative value of him here vs. the current rookie class since we've seen so little of him actually play in the NFL.

I'd probably put him in the ASJ/Amaro tier. Would have ASJ higher most likely, but probably a toss-up with Amaro. Would lean Kelce in non-PPR, Amaro in TE premium and about equal in 1 PPR.

Kelce has a quicker path to relevance, but age and the knee surgery have reduced my expectations.

Age? He's 24.

And will turn 25 in early October. For comparison, Rob Gronkowski is less than 6 months older than him.

How many NFL snaps does he have under his belt again?

ASJ is a full 3 years younger and Jace is over 2.5 years younger.

Obviously his age is not the primary evaluation mechanism here, but are you saying his age doesn't matter at all?

I'm not saying it doesn't matter at all, but I wouldn't use it to rank players when we're talking about guys that young with that much unknown about talent and ability. You're talking about 5+ years of Kelce and 7+ years of Amaro. I think comparing their age is thinking too much into it. Pick the guy that you think is the better player and that will help you for a few years. Just my opinion.

I could say player X is definitely better than player Y, but I also know that player outcomes are probabilities rather than certainties. So I will use it as a tiebreaker if players are close, not only because of the longer potential career but everything else equal I think players coming into the league younger have a higher chance of success. This is due to them probably being better overall athletes (i.e. if you were able to come out earlier you probably would have) and your college production is discounted by virtue of competing against younger guys.

I could point to Amaro being a higher draft pick in a much deeper class and not coming off micro-fracture as serious points in his favor; I think the fact I am keeping Kelce in that discussion is evidence I am not dismissing him due to age.

On CSTU's point about Graham - I think this points to the idea that you need to have a narrative as to why the player is so old coming out. In Graham's case it was because he was a converted basketball player (and pretty horrible college football production IIRC). In Kelce's case he has had some legal issues IIRC. So that can be the narrative why we don't write him off completely.

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Curious where people would slot him into the rookie class in terms of value.

To put it another way, what sort of rookie pick would you give up for Kelce?

I'm trying to gauge relative value of him here vs. the current rookie class since we've seen so little of him actually play in the NFL.

I'd probably put him in the ASJ/Amaro tier. Would have ASJ higher most likely, but probably a toss-up with Amaro. Would lean Kelce in non-PPR, Amaro in TE premium and about equal in 1 PPR.

Kelce has a quicker path to relevance, but age and the knee surgery have reduced my expectations.

Age? He's 24.

And will turn 25 in early October. For comparison, Rob Gronkowski is less than 6 months older than him.

How many NFL snaps does he have under his belt again?

ASJ is a full 3 years younger and Jace is over 2.5 years younger.

Obviously his age is not the primary evaluation mechanism here, but are you saying his age doesn't matter at all?

It matters but Jimmy Graham was a 24 year old rookie like Kelce.

Not many TE's averaged 16 YPR, as well as leading his team in catches, yardage and TD's.

I have no problem with people ranking ASJ and Amaro over Kelce with age as the deciding factor, but I also wouldn't ignore Kelce simply because of his age.

If you have them ranked so close that you can't decide, then sure, you can use age to decide. I just got the feeling from the other poster that it was one of the main criteria in his rankings and I thought that was ridiculous since it's so difficult to find a good TE anyways.

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If you have them ranked so close that you can't decide, then sure, you can use age to decide. I just got the feeling from the other poster that it was one of the main criteria in his rankings and I thought that was ridiculous since it's so difficult to find a good TE anyways.

Care to point out what I said that gave you that feeling?

ETA: constructing strawman arguments to shoot down doesn't make for very good player discussion

Edited by cdubz
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If you have them ranked so close that you can't decide, then sure, you can use age to decide. I just got the feeling from the other poster that it was one of the main criteria in his rankings and I thought that was ridiculous since it's so difficult to find a good TE anyways.

Care to point what I said that gave you that feeling?

I'm not trying to turn this into an argument. You said that age and his knee issue are reducing your expectations. I agree with the knee issue being a big reason to worry, not his age. The fact that you listed them together made me think that you saw them as somewhat equal factors. Apparently you didn't mean that. End of argument.

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@ Loose Circuits - not sure I am familar with the Harris guy you are referencing. Chiefs player?

For fun here are the resumes of Kelce, Amaro, and ASJ for their highest target college year:

Targets/YPT/% of team yards/%of team TDs


Kelce - 64/11.28/0.23/0.32
Amaro - 152/8.89/0.26/0.20
ASJ - 96/8.88/0.31/0.37

Kelce and ASJ are similar players in that they project to be in-line guys that are also receiving threats. Kelce wins in YPT, but loses in % of team yards and % of team TDs. Also probably worth noting, Kelce's college career targets were less than ASJ's season high in targets. The high YPT is tantalizing, but might be a function of his low usage.

Amaro is projected to play a different role than Kelce, as a move TE. That expected role is what led Sigmund Bloom to rank Amaro as his #6 overall player pre-draft: "Amaro is going to be drafted to basically do one thing: dominate as a receiver with size and physicality at the short and intermediate level in the middle of the field. Destination will be key, but if he is paired with a solid quarterback in a pass-friendly offensive scheme, he should be a perennial 90 catch player."

I don't quite see the upside that Bloom sees, but understand that he is not going to be a typical in-line tight end and more of a supersized Wes Welker. So in standard leagues, I think you should roll the dice with Kelce over Amaro due to the TD upside. That assessment leans the other way when we start talking PPR or TE premium.

Edited by cdubz
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  • 1 month later...

Rotoworld:

ESPN's Adam Teicher says a healthy TE Travis Kelce would allow the Chiefs to employ more two tight end sets this season.

Injuries to Kelce, Anthony Fasano, and Tony Moeaki decimated the Chiefs tight end corps and prevented the team from using two tight end sets as often as they would have liked last season. A healthy Fasano and Kelce should allow the Chiefs to reverse that mistake this time around. With the wide receiver group as weak as ever in Kansas City, the Chiefs will look to utilize second-year Kelce as a weapon in the passing game. He is a very interesting TE2 flier.
Source: ESPN.com
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  • 3 weeks later...

Looking forward to see what he can do...

(Rotoworld) Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (knee) is full go for the beginning of training camp. Analysis: Coming off a lost rookie season, Kelce is nine months removed from microfracture surgery. With the Chiefs' receiver corps perhaps the thinnest in the league, Kelce will get every opportunity to make an early impact on offense, provided he's healthy. He's worth monitoring as a TE2 in fantasy leagues.

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Among those players was second-year player Travis Kelce, the athletically-gifted tight end who stood out early in last year’s training camp before going down with an injury.

Kelce spoke briefly about what last season was like for him.

“It was tough just because I couldn’t be out there with the team,” Kelce said. “The fact that we went 9-0 the first nine games, it was easier than if we were losing. But at the same time, I’m a guy that just wants to go compete. So it was pretty tough for me.”

Today, Kelce was able to get down the field on some of his routes, make some cuts and accelerate up the field after making some catches, which is a step in the right direction after coming back from injury.

He finds himself right in the middle of one of the most exciting positional groups to watch throughout training camp, and that’s the tight end group.

Veterans Anthony Fasano, Richard Gordon and Sean McGrath will join the team later this week when they report on Wednesday, but Kelce, along with Demetrius Harris, showed their athleticism and versatility today at practice.

Harris is one of the players who really stood out during OTAs, albeit today was without pads and that will be the ultimate test, it was another good day for Harris, who seems to have been putting plenty of those together lately.

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Looking forward to see what he can do...

(Rotoworld) Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (knee) is full go for the beginning of training camp. Analysis: Coming off a lost rookie season, Kelce is nine months removed from microfracture surgery. With the Chiefs' receiver corps perhaps the thinnest in the league, Kelce will get every opportunity to make an early impact on offense, provided he's healthy. He's worth monitoring as a TE2 in fantasy leagues.

Agreed. It seems like a good TE could really do well in that system. And by system I mean Alex Smith not throwing farther than 15 yards. Looking forward to more news in the coming weeks...

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http://espn.go.com/blog/kansas-city-chiefs/post/_/id/6482/kelces-return-no-small-matter-for-chiefs

Kelce's return no small matter for Chiefs
July, 21, 2014
By Adam Teicher | ESPN.com
ST. JOSEPH, Mo. -- The most realistic hope for the Kansas City Chiefs to improve their passing game in 2014 is for them to get more than the 55 receptions they got last year from their tight ends. Their chances for that got better on Monday when Travis Kelce went through a full practice for the first time in almost a year.

It was just the beginning of a three-day rookie camp at Missouri Western State University. Selected veterans, Kelce being one, were also invited to participate. Full-squad training camp begins on Thursday.

Still, his return was a victory for the Chiefs and Kelce. An ailing knee and the resulting surgery caused Kelce to miss all of his rookie season last year, and then he was a bystander for virtually all of offseason practice.

Kelce moved around well and did so without a brace or any other kind of protection on the knee.

“From here, it’s just a matter of getting back into football shape and getting ready to play a 16-game season," he said.

The Chiefs would happily settle for whatever they can get from Kelce if he’s available to them for 16 games this year. They had big plans at tight end heading into training camp last year, with Kelce joining veterans Tony Moeaki and Anthony Fasano.

But because of injuries, neither Kelce nor Moeaki played a down on offense and Fasano missed eight games. The Chiefs pieced together a group of tight ends that included waiver claim Sean McGrath and did well to get to 55 catches from the position.

They need more from their tight ends this season. A healthy Kelce, as well as development from former college basketball player Demetrius Harris, figures large in those plans.

The Chiefs weren’t more aggressive about pursuing an accomplished wide receiver through free agency or the draft in part because they have big expectations for Kelce.

At 260 pounds, Kelce is big for a tight end, but he’s not just a receiver capable of running the short or intermediate routes. He’s proved capable of beating coverage to make catches down the field.

The prediction here is that with Kelce in their lineup for a full season, the Chiefs’ tight ends will blow past 55 catches at a relatively early point in the 2014 schedule.
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  • 2 weeks later...

Kelce with a 69 yard TD and Harris with a 30 yard catch. The Chiefs TE's averaged a gaudy 34 YPR tonight.

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Kelce with a 69 yard TD and Harris with a 30 yard catch. The Chiefs TE's averaged a gaudy 34 YPR tonight.

Yep, going to try and snatch Kelce up in the mid rounds. Probably a long shot but you never know, we could be looking at the next Graham or Gronk.

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Couple of takeways:

1) Travis Kelce looks really fast for a guy his size, especially coming off microfracture surgery. But he should be doing extra pushups in practice for doing that awkward summersault into the endzone. Does this guy want to get hurt again?

2) The Bengals defense is no way no how going to be that bad in the regular season.

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What kind of projections do you guys see from Kelce this season?

I'll let some stats guy do projections but I'm very high on him. Bowe is a weak WR#1 and they really don't have #2 WR. A healthy Kelce could take on the targets of a #2 WR. I could envision him having a Jordan Reed type breakout season.

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Looked impressive but the thing to keep in mind is that it all starts with Alex Smith and he is Captain checkdown. There just won't be that many occurrences of combination longer passes/terrible coverage to actually showcase a play like that during the year.

He looked good but a lot of guys would look good in that scenario so I temper the expectations. THe needle moved because he looked fluid running on that repaired knee but it didn't shift him that much IMO.

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Looked impressive but the thing to keep in mind is that it all starts with Alex Smith and he is Captain checkdown. There just won't be that many occurrences of combination longer passes/terrible coverage to actually showcase a play like that during the year.

He looked good but a lot of guys would look good in that scenario so I temper the expectations. THe needle moved because he looked fluid running on that repaired knee but it didn't shift him that much IMO.

Checkdowns are perfect for TE production.

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I've been looking to add Kelce in dyno leagues this offseason. I'm keeping my expectations tempered though. Sounds like he looked good last night, but didn't Zach Sudfield look like a beast last preseason?

Not trying to say he's gonna be Sudfield, but it's a little early to say he's the next Gronk because of one preseason game.

Edited by MattFancy
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Looked impressive but the thing to keep in mind is that it all starts with Alex Smith and he is Captain checkdown. There just won't be that many occurrences of combination longer passes/terrible coverage to actually showcase a play like that during the year.

He looked good but a lot of guys would look good in that scenario so I temper the expectations. THe needle moved because he looked fluid running on that repaired knee but it didn't shift him that much IMO.

Checkdowns are perfect for TE production.

Not when you have Jamaal Charles and De'Anthony Thomas and Knile Davis. Those guys are going to dominate those opportunities.

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I've been looking to add Kelce in dyno leagues this offseason. I'm keeping my expectations tempered though. Sounds like he looked good last night, but didn't Zach Sudfield look like a beast last preseason?

Not trying to say he's gonna be Sudfield, but it's a little early to say he's the next Gronk because of one preseason game.

Sudfield was an UDFA and Kelce was a third rounder that many had a higher predraft grade on. Kelce, if not for his injury last year would be right there with some of the other highly touted second year TE's.

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What kind of projections do you guys see from Kelce this season?

I'll let some stats guy do projections but I'm very high on him. Bowe is a weak WR#1 and they really don't have #2 WR. A healthy Kelce could take on the targets of a #2 WR. I could envision him having a Jordan Reed type breakout season.

I can definitely see him coming in as a low-end TE1 or possibly a high TE1, he might be the best TD target on the team. I'm kind of pissed he went off last night though, here's to hoping he has some quite games ahead of him before the season. I've been snatching him up in every draft this offseason and trading for him buy low in dynasty. Still have one or two more big money leagues though and was hoping to grab him as another late round flier.

I won't give a full projection cause I"m really not sure what type of production he'll see.

Realize, Smith through the ball 508 times last season, completed about 60% for 308 completions, that said... it was over 15 games. Add in a 16th game and you get about 541 attempts and 328 receptions.

Now, Fasano and McGrath combined for 41 receptions, 355 yards and 4 TDs. That said, they suck, both of them. And last season the O-Line was significantly better. This year, Smith is going to be checking down to Charles and his TE a lot more I'd think. They were worth about 12.3% of the teams receptions last year.

Andy Reid's history?

TEs combined for:

12' - 82/367 completions or about 22.3% of the teams receptions

11' - 75/330 - 22.7%

10' - 51/348 - 14.65%

09' - 76/335 - 22.35%

08' - 64/362 - 17.7%

Outside of the odd outlier of 2010, Reid usually averaged about 22% to his TEs and in most of these year (all but 08') it was almost exclusively towards Celek. So when he has a big and semi-talented TE he makes use of him. For comparison if the team averaged 22% last year it'd have about 74 receptions among the TEs. Now, obviously Kelce isn't just going to eat up every TE reception, but I also think the Chiefs are going to be forced into passing situations more this year and we all know Smith isn't going to take a lot of chances, so even in passing down's he's going to look at the TE often.

I'd say a solid projection for Kelce right now would be 55 Rec, 632 yards and 7 TDs with a high end projection being more around the lines of 80 receptions, 900 yards and 10 TDs.

Edited by Khy
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What kind of projections do you guys see from Kelce this season?

I'll let some stats guy do projections but I'm very high on him. Bowe is a weak WR#1 and they really don't have #2 WR. A healthy Kelce could take on the targets of a #2 WR. I could envision him having a Jordan Reed type breakout season.

I can definitely see him coming in as a low-end TE1 or possibly a high TE1, he might be the best TD target on the team. I'm kind of pissed he went off last night though, here's to hoping he has some quite games ahead of him before the season. I've been snatching him up in every draft this offseason and trading for him buy low in dynasty. Still have one or two more big money leagues though and was hoping to grab him as another late round flier.

I am guessing you mean high-end TE2.

I agree, he has the potential to be in that range, and he certainly showed no effects last night of his microfracture surgery. All signs are pointing up for Kelce.

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What kind of projections do you guys see from Kelce this season?

I'll let some stats guy do projections but I'm very high on him. Bowe is a weak WR#1 and they really don't have #2 WR. A healthy Kelce could take on the targets of a #2 WR. I could envision him having a Jordan Reed type breakout season.

I can definitely see him coming in as a low-end TE1 or possibly a high TE1, he might be the best TD target on the team. I'm kind of pissed he went off last night though, here's to hoping he has some quite games ahead of him before the season. I've been snatching him up in every draft this offseason and trading for him buy low in dynasty. Still have one or two more big money leagues though and was hoping to grab him as another late round flier.

I am guessing you mean high-end TE2.

I agree, he has the potential to be in that range, and he certainly showed no effects last night of his microfracture surgery. All signs are pointing up for Kelce.

Nah, I meant what I said... high TE1 last season was Vernon Davis who finished 5th in standard PPR scoring with 49 catches for 805 yards and 12 TDs or Cameron who came in 4th with 75 for 848 and 7 TDs both of which I don't see as out of the realm of possibility for Kelce. Alex Smith was practically begging for a guy of Kelce's talents last year. I'm not saying he's JImmy Graham but he compared very closely to him on a physical level.

6'6 260lbs - 4.56 40 - 38.5" vert - 120" broad - 6.9 3 Cone

6' 5" 260lbs - 4.61 40 - 35.5" vert - 124" broad - 7.09 3 Cone

Obviously Graham is slightly better in all but the Broad but you get what I'm saying at least. A lot of Graham's success is because he's just too damn big for corners to cover and too damn fast for LBs to cover. The biggest difference is I'm not certain Kelce ever played basketball so he's not nearly as talented at those post up corner end zone style plays. Then again when you're 6' 5" pretty sure just turn around and the balls there.

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Harris is going to be involved as well. Could be messy for fantasy football.

This... is my only concern for Kelce. If Harris can prove he can catch the ball well he's even bigger and faster than Kelce and he has that basketball background. I own both of them on most of my deep fantasy leagues.

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Couple of takeways:

1) Travis Kelce looks really fast for a guy his size, especially coming off microfracture surgery. But he should be doing extra pushups in practice for doing that awkward summersault into the endzone. Does this guy want to get hurt again?

2) The Bengals defense is no way no how going to be that bad in the regular season.

41 for CINCY is going to be bagging groceries soon......he totally shyed away from a potential block by KC #8 like that guy was Mike Tyson or something....need to make a little better effort there bud.....maybe a dive or something....?....take on the block as you close in.....?

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Looked impressive but the thing to keep in mind is that it all starts with Alex Smith and he is Captain checkdown. There just won't be that many occurrences of combination longer passes/terrible coverage to actually showcase a play like that during the year.

He looked good but a lot of guys would look good in that scenario so I temper the expectations. THe needle moved because he looked fluid running on that repaired knee but it didn't shift him that much IMO.

Checkdowns are perfect for TE production.

Not when you have Jamaal Charles and De'Anthony Thomas and Knile Davis. Those guys are going to dominate those opportunities.

All three of those guys play the same position, yeah? Not really much of a concern that Smith will drop back and see Bowe, Kelce, Charles, Davis, and Thomas all in pass patterns, is there?

A QB that plays it safe, only one viable WR, and a head coach that loves to throw the ball, those are all good things for Kelce.

Yeah, it was preseason. Yeah, the Bengals were running vanilla, and weren't full strength and yada yada yada. Kelce shwed speed, tho. Not a lot of TEs outrun DBs 50 yards to the end zone.

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He actually put distance on #22

Damn he was moving fast. Guess that knee is completely healed. Andy Reid's offenses in Philly used the tight end. Brent Celek had a pretty good season some years ago. And Alex Smith partnered with Vernon Davis on some good tight end seasons in SF. Future looks bright for Kelce.

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Harris is going to be involved as well. Could be messy for fantasy football.

Gronk/Hernandez?

Why do people assume things like this?

I am guessing because it is 3 instead of 2. Gronk/Hernandez was a completely different situation.
I have a feeling that's like saying Ben Watson and Dave Thomas would have limited Jimmy. Edited by SproutDaddy
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What kind of projections do you guys see from Kelce this season?

I'll let some stats guy do projections but I'm very high on him. Bowe is a weak WR#1 and they really don't have #2 WR. A healthy Kelce could take on the targets of a #2 WR. I could envision him having a Jordan Reed type breakout season.

I can definitely see him coming in as a low-end TE1 or possibly a high TE1, he might be the best TD target on the team. I'm kind of pissed he went off last night though, here's to hoping he has some quite games ahead of him before the season. I've been snatching him up in every draft this offseason and trading for him buy low in dynasty. Still have one or two more big money leagues though and was hoping to grab him as another late round flier.

I won't give a full projection cause I"m really not sure what type of production he'll see.

Realize, Smith through the ball 508 times last season, completed about 60% for 308 completions, that said... it was over 15 games. Add in a 16th game and you get about 541 attempts and 328 receptions.

Now, Fasano and McGrath combined for 41 receptions, 355 yards and 4 TDs. That said, they suck, both of them. And last season the O-Line was significantly better. This year, Smith is going to be checking down to Charles and his TE a lot more I'd think. They were worth about 12.3% of the teams receptions last year.

Andy Reid's history?

TEs combined for:

12' - 82/367 completions or about 22.3% of the teams receptions

11' - 75/330 - 22.7%

10' - 51/348 - 14.65%

09' - 76/335 - 22.35%

08' - 64/362 - 17.7%

Outside of the odd outlier of 2010, Reid usually averaged about 22% to his TEs and in most of these year (all but 08') it was almost exclusively towards Celek. So when he has a big and semi-talented TE he makes use of him. For comparison if the team averaged 22% last year it'd have about 74 receptions among the TEs. Now, obviously Kelce isn't just going to eat up every TE reception, but I also think the Chiefs are going to be forced into passing situations more this year and we all know Smith isn't going to take a lot of chances, so even in passing down's he's going to look at the TE often.

I'd say a solid projection for Kelce right now would be 55 Rec, 632 yards and 7 TDs with a high end projection being more around the lines of 80 receptions, 900 yards and 10 TDs.

I overlooked this great post prior to making my post above. Great analysis.

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