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Travis Kelce

Bucky86

By Bucky86,
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TZMarkie

TZMarkie 608

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Posted

I take it Kelce is ok after the hit? I don't see him with another catch which is ok, just want to make sure he's still playing.

He was pulled from the game after a hit, from what I understand.

But then I was alerted he was brought back in later, but I cannot verify that.

Judging from the above posts I believe he is indeed back in play.

TZM

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LionOfGosforth

LionOfGosforth 183

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I take it Kelce is ok after the hit? I don't see him with another catch which is ok, just want to make sure he's still playing.

He was pulled from the game after a hit, from what I understand.

But then I was alerted he was brought back in later, but I cannot verify that.

Judging from the above posts I believe he is indeed back in play.

TZM

Thanks TZM. He actually just caught another pass for 9 yards so I guess he's good :thumbup:

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TZMarkie

TZMarkie 608

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Thanks TZM. He actually just caught another pass for 9 yards so I guess he's good :thumbup:

I didn't know if he was back in to be honest.

When I saw him laying on the ground clutching at his collarbone and upper chest, I had to run and get some toilet paper. :D

TZM

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FF Ninja

FF Ninja 2,842

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Man, I haven't seen this much excitement generated due to a busted play since Kenny Britt week 2 2011. You remove that busted coverage (1/42/1) and you're looking at a totally different stat line.

I would trade him immediately if I owned him. Alex Smith threw the ball 33 times - ahead of last year's pace and actually on pace for a career high of 528 passing attempts. Kelce only got 6 targets - which is exactly what I expected weekly. With Maclin getting 9 targets, maybe 6 was too high of a projection. Either way, those six targets will typically translate to 4/52/0. Enjoy the big week 1, but realize what it is - an aberration. He's not going to get much more than 6 targets each week and he certainly won't be catching 100% of them or being left wide open for long TDs.

I know it is unpopular to be the wet blanket after a big week, but realize there were some extenuating circumstances that led to his stat line. He's a great talent in an average to below average situation - not very many targets and at least 33% of them are going to the RBs.

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RUSF18

RUSF18 3,908

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Man, I haven't seen this much excitement generated due to a busted play since Kenny Britt week 2 2011. You remove that busted coverage (1/42/1) and you're looking at a totally different stat line.

I would trade him immediately if I owned him. Alex Smith threw the ball 33 times - ahead of last year's pace and actually on pace for a career high of 528 passing attempts. Kelce only got 6 targets - which is exactly what I expected weekly. With Maclin getting 9 targets, maybe 6 was too high of a projection. Either way, those six targets will typically translate to 4/52/0. Enjoy the big week 1, but realize what it is - an aberration. He's not going to get much more than 6 targets each week and he certainly won't be catching 100% of them or being left wide open for long TDs.

I know it is unpopular to be the wet blanket after a big week, but realize there were some extenuating circumstances that led to his stat line. He's a great talent in an average to below average situation - not very many targets and at least 33% of them are going to the RBs.

People tend to be very happy when you take away a guy's best play and it *only* leaves him with 5-64-1.

And you're not exactly breaking news by calling a 2 TD week an aberration.

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LionOfGosforth

LionOfGosforth 183

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Posted (edited)

Man, I haven't seen this much excitement generated due to a busted play since Kenny Britt week 2 2011. You remove that busted coverage (1/42/1) and you're looking at a totally different stat line.

I would trade him immediately if I owned him. Alex Smith threw the ball 33 times - ahead of last year's pace and actually on pace for a career high of 528 passing attempts. Kelce only got 6 targets - which is exactly what I expected weekly. With Maclin getting 9 targets, maybe 6 was too high of a projection. Either way, those six targets will typically translate to 4/52/0. Enjoy the big week 1, but realize what it is - an aberration. He's not going to get much more than 6 targets each week and he certainly won't be catching 100% of them or being left wide open for long TDs.

I know it is unpopular to be the wet blanket after a big week, but realize there were some extenuating circumstances that led to his stat line. He's a great talent in an average to below average situation - not very many targets and at least 33% of them are going to the RBs.

100% catch success rate in a game that was out of hand by half time and we're supposed to be disappointed with only 6 targets? How do you know he'll not get much more targets than that, don't you think it will be game dependent? Wish I had your crystal ball to know what targets a player will receive. Regardless of your odd arguments, he's a beast, a fine blocker and a huge red zone target. Don't know why some are so determined to be negative, something to crow about later if you happen to be right?

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AngryPatriot

AngryPatriot 52

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yeah, trade immediately!!! That's not the shark move, more like the puffer fish. This guy is $$$. What a ridiculous post, "a great talent", lol. Even more so when Smith loves throwing to anyone that's not a WR, at least for TD's. Watch Kelce play, use the eye test, he is dynamic, strong, quick for a big man, passes with flying colors. I would trade for Kelce if I didn't have him already, easy top 5 barring injury.

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FF Ninja

FF Ninja 2,842

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Man, I haven't seen this much excitement generated due to a busted play since Kenny Britt week 2 2011. You remove that busted coverage (1/42/1) and you're looking at a totally different stat line.

I would trade him immediately if I owned him. Alex Smith threw the ball 33 times - ahead of last year's pace and actually on pace for a career high of 528 passing attempts. Kelce only got 6 targets - which is exactly what I expected weekly. With Maclin getting 9 targets, maybe 6 was too high of a projection. Either way, those six targets will typically translate to 4/52/0. Enjoy the big week 1, but realize what it is - an aberration. He's not going to get much more than 6 targets each week and he certainly won't be catching 100% of them or being left wide open for long TDs.

I know it is unpopular to be the wet blanket after a big week, but realize there were some extenuating circumstances that led to his stat line. He's a great talent in an average to below average situation - not very many targets and at least 33% of them are going to the RBs.

100% catch success rate in a game that was out of hand by half time and we're supposed to be disappointed with only 6 targets? How do you know he'll not get much more targets than that, don't you think it will be game dependent? Wish I had your crystal ball to know what targets a player will receive. Regardless of your odd arguments, he's a beast, a fine blocker and a huge red zone target. Don't know why some are so determined to be negative, something to crow about later if you happen to be right?

I don't quote old posts to boast, so no. Just bringing a contrary opinion for discussion or for a warning. As for your question on targets, the answer is simple math. I have brought it up before, but there just aren't many targets to go around in this offense. You'll be lucky to get 33 passes from Smith on average and it sure looks like Reid is intent on getting Maclin involved and you already know the RBs will get at least a third of the targets. After the RBs, there will be about 20 targets left to spread around. Maclin will get at least 7, maybe 8. That leaves about a dozen targets for the other WRs and TEs. I predict Kelce will get 6 of them. This is just not an offense that is going to produce very many targets for the TE, no matter how good he is. I still think 100 targets is a realistic projection for Kelce. I'll be very surprised if he eclipses 110 barring something unforeseen, such as a Maclin injury or historical number of passing attempts.

He's off to a good start, but it'll be very hard to be a top TE with 100 targets or less. From this point on, he's likely to underperform expectations which is why he's a great guy to trade in redraft. His value will never be higher. Preseason hype + big first week is as good as it gets.

yeah, trade immediately!!! That's not the shark move, more like the puffer fish. This guy is $$$. What a ridiculous post, "a great talent", lol. Even more so when Smith loves throwing to anyone that's not a WR, at least for TD's. Watch Kelce play, use the eye test, he is dynamic, strong, quick for a big man, passes with flying colors. I would trade for Kelce if I didn't have him already, easy top 5 barring injury.

That's exactly what guppies say when they get lucky in week 1 and someone suggests it won't continue. It's ok. You've got strength in numbers. You can laugh me out of here, but it won't help you down the line. You could maximize value right now, though, instead of killing the messenger.

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FF Ninja

FF Ninja 2,842

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Yes...the old...remove that big play and....

Do you say the same about Abdullah's TD?

How about take away everyone's biggest play this past weekend and see how their stat line looks?

:rolleyes: Nope. Nope. Nope. You missed what I wrote. The key is "busted coverage". Abdullah made a play. Kelce made a play to score his other TD. The big one, however, was the result of busted coverage. Most people, like you, don't realize it. So that's why it's a great time to capitalize.

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matttyl

matttyl 2,689

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Man, I haven't seen this much excitement generated due to a busted play since Kenny Britt week 2 2011. You remove that busted coverage (1/42/1) and you're looking at a totally different stat line.

I would trade him immediately if I owned him. Alex Smith threw the ball 33 times - ahead of last year's pace and actually on pace for a career high of 528 passing attempts. Kelce only got 6 targets - which is exactly what I expected weekly. With Maclin getting 9 targets, maybe 6 was too high of a projection. Either way, those six targets will typically translate to 4/52/0. Enjoy the big week 1, but realize what it is - an aberration. He's not going to get much more than 6 targets each week and he certainly won't be catching 100% of them or being left wide open for long TDs.

I know it is unpopular to be the wet blanket after a big week, but realize there were some extenuating circumstances that led to his stat line. He's a great talent in an average to below average situation - not very many targets and at least 33% of them are going to the RBs.

He averaged 5.4 targets per game last year. That was while sharing playing time with Fasano who had 37 targets himself. I don't think expecting 6 targets a week this year is out of the question at all.

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matttyl

matttyl 2,689

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He's off to a good start, but it'll be very hard to be a top TE with 100 targets or less. From this point on, he's likely to underperform expectations which is why he's a great guy to trade in redraft. His value will never be higher. Preseason hype + big first week is as good as it gets.

Last year's #3 TE (and only off of being the #2 by a single point in my league) was Gates, who only had 98 targets. J Thomas was the #7 overall TE in my league with only 62 targets. People didn't draft him to be better than Gronk - they drafted him to be nearly as good (75-80%) as him at a very discounted price.

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sho nuff

sho nuff 17,360

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Yes...the old...remove that big play and....

Do you say the same about Abdullah's TD?

How about take away everyone's biggest play this past weekend and see how their stat line looks?

:rolleyes: Nope. Nope. Nope. You missed what I wrote. The key is "busted coverage". Abdullah made a play. Kelce made a play to score his other TD. The big one, however, was the result of busted coverage. Most people, like you, don't realize it. So that's why it's a great time to capitalize.

So...no other teams will ever have that.

Point is...things like that happen.

And the guy has shown in the past to be able to make plays as well.

Taking away things is stupid and a fools errand in FF.

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Mr. Irrelevant

Mr. Irrelevant 1,749

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Man, I haven't seen this much excitement generated due to a busted play since Kenny Britt week 2 2011. You remove that busted coverage (1/42/1) and you're looking at a totally different stat line.

I would trade him immediately if I owned him. Alex Smith threw the ball 33 times - ahead of last year's pace and actually on pace for a career high of 528 passing attempts. Kelce only got 6 targets - which is exactly what I expected weekly. With Maclin getting 9 targets, maybe 6 was too high of a projection. Either way, those six targets will typically translate to 4/52/0. Enjoy the big week 1, but realize what it is - an aberration. He's not going to get much more than 6 targets each week and he certainly won't be catching 100% of them or being left wide open for long TDs.

I know it is unpopular to be the wet blanket after a big week, but realize there were some extenuating circumstances that led to his stat line. He's a great talent in an average to below average situation - not very many targets and at least 33% of them are going to the RBs.

He averaged 5.4 targets per game last year. That was while sharing playing time with Fasano who had 37 targets himself. I don't think expecting 6 targets a week this year is out of the question at all.

This is correct - a total of 87 targets in all. On which he recorded 67 catches. That's a 77 percent catch rate! It's foolhardy to expect he'll sustain that, even with Captain Checkdown at the helm. Gronk caught 65% of his targets last year, Graham and Olsen 68%.

Let's say he reverts only partway to the mean with a 70% catch rate this year. 6 targets a week at that catch rate, for 16 games, gives him ... errr, 67 catches.

Now, last year, his 67 catches went for 12.9 YPC (not unsustainably high) and 5 TDs (a 7.5% rate - which if anything should improve). But here's the rub: that 67/862/5 line translated, in standard leagues, to a TE9 finish.

No one, anywhere, in any draft in which I took part took Kelce lower than TE6 this year - and I saw him go as high as TE3. In other words, he's gotta consistently get more than 6 targets a week, and maintain a higher-than-average catch rate, and increase his TD production, and maintain close to last year's YPC ... oh, and stay healthy ... all just to perform up to his draft position.

Yes, it's possible he busts out all over the place this year, puts up an 80/1,200/14 stat line, and becomes known as Baby Gronk. But, be honest with yourselves here, is that really likely? Maybe you think it is. I won't argue with you. But in redraft, I'm willing to take the other side of that bet.

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Kenny Powers

Kenny Powers 278

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Posted (edited)

Man, I haven't seen this much excitement generated due to a busted play since Kenny Britt week 2 2011. You remove that busted coverage (1/42/1) and you're looking at a totally different stat line.

I would trade him immediately if I owned him. Alex Smith threw the ball 33 times - ahead of last year's pace and actually on pace for a career high of 528 passing attempts. Kelce only got 6 targets - which is exactly what I expected weekly. With Maclin getting 9 targets, maybe 6 was too high of a projection. Either way, those six targets will typically translate to 4/52/0. Enjoy the big week 1, but realize what it is - an aberration. He's not going to get much more than 6 targets each week and he certainly won't be catching 100% of them or being left wide open for long TDs.

I know it is unpopular to be the wet blanket after a big week, but realize there were some extenuating circumstances that led to his stat line. He's a great talent in an average to below average situation - not very many targets and at least 33% of them are going to the RBs.

100% catch success rate in a game that was out of hand by half time and we're supposed to be disappointed with only 6 targets? How do you know he'll not get much more targets than that, don't you think it will be game dependent? Wish I had your crystal ball to know what targets a player will receive. Regardless of your odd arguments, he's a beast, a fine blocker and a huge red zone target. Don't know why some are so determined to be negative, something to crow about later if you happen to be right?

I was going to say something similar. This game was 27-9 at the half, and still 27-9 until well into the 4th quarter. KC had no reason to pass much in the 2nd half, and Alex Smith having 9 rushing attempts for the game also seems like an aberration to me. I think 6 targets/game is closer to Kelce's floor than his norm. They have nothing besides Maclin and Charles. Id expect Kelce to average closer to 8 targets/game most weeks.

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Buck Bradcanon

Buck Bradcanon 1,454

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Man, I haven't seen this much excitement generated due to a busted play since Kenny Britt week 2 2011. You remove that busted coverage (1/42/1) and you're looking at a totally different stat line.

I would trade him immediately if I owned him. Alex Smith threw the ball 33 times - ahead of last year's pace and actually on pace for a career high of 528 passing attempts. Kelce only got 6 targets - which is exactly what I expected weekly. With Maclin getting 9 targets, maybe 6 was too high of a projection. Either way, those six targets will typically translate to 4/52/0. Enjoy the big week 1, but realize what it is - an aberration. He's not going to get much more than 6 targets each week and he certainly won't be catching 100% of them or being left wide open for long TDs.

I know it is unpopular to be the wet blanket after a big week, but realize there were some extenuating circumstances that led to his stat line. He's a great talent in an average to below average situation - not very many targets and at least 33% of them are going to the RBs.

He averaged 5.4 targets per game last year. That was while sharing playing time with Fasano who had 37 targets himself. I don't think expecting 6 targets a week this year is out of the question at all.

This is correct - a total of 87 targets in all. On which he recorded 67 catches. That's a 77 percent catch rate! It's foolhardy to expect he'll sustain that, even with Captain Checkdown at the helm. Gronk caught 65% of his targets last year, Graham and Olsen 68%.

Let's say he reverts only partway to the mean with a 70% catch rate this year. 6 targets a week at that catch rate, for 16 games, gives him ... errr, 67 catches.

Now, last year, his 67 catches went for 12.9 YPC (not unsustainably high) and 5 TDs (a 7.5% rate - which if anything should improve). But here's the rub: that 67/862/5 line translated, in standard leagues, to a TE9 finish.

No one, anywhere, in any draft in which I took part took Kelce lower than TE6 this year - and I saw him go as high as TE3. In other words, he's gotta consistently get more than 6 targets a week, and maintain a higher-than-average catch rate, and increase his TD production, and maintain close to last year's YPC ... oh, and stay healthy ... all just to perform up to his draft position.

Yes, it's possible he busts out all over the place this year, puts up an 80/1,200/14 stat line, and becomes known as Baby Gronk. But, be honest with yourselves here, is that really likely? Maybe you think it is. I won't argue with you. But in redraft, I'm willing to take the other side of that bet.

Really good analysis. I just think the target number goes up a good bit this year by being healthy and being on the field for more snaps than last year.

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matttyl

matttyl 2,689

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But here's the rub: that 67/862/5 line translated, in standard leagues, to a TE9 finish.

Um, he already has 6/106/2 right now. I don't think he's going to be limited to only 756 yards (50 yards per game) or 3 TDs (1 TD every 5 games)over the next 15 games.

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matttyl

matttyl 2,689

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You'll be lucky to get 33 passes from Smith on average

:shrug:He averaged 31 passes per game last year, and 34 passes per game the year before. They also added Maclin (the best WR they've had over the past 3 years), so expecting only 33 attempts per game is very realistic, and possibly low.

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LionOfGosforth

LionOfGosforth 183

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Man, I haven't seen this much excitement generated due to a busted play since Kenny Britt week 2 2011. You remove that busted coverage (1/42/1) and you're looking at a totally different stat line.

I would trade him immediately if I owned him. Alex Smith threw the ball 33 times - ahead of last year's pace and actually on pace for a career high of 528 passing attempts. Kelce only got 6 targets - which is exactly what I expected weekly. With Maclin getting 9 targets, maybe 6 was too high of a projection. Either way, those six targets will typically translate to 4/52/0. Enjoy the big week 1, but realize what it is - an aberration. He's not going to get much more than 6 targets each week and he certainly won't be catching 100% of them or being left wide open for long TDs.

I know it is unpopular to be the wet blanket after a big week, but realize there were some extenuating circumstances that led to his stat line. He's a great talent in an average to below average situation - not very many targets and at least 33% of them are going to the RBs.

100% catch success rate in a game that was out of hand by half time and we're supposed to be disappointed with only 6 targets? How do you know he'll not get much more targets than that, don't you think it will be game dependent? Wish I had your crystal ball to know what targets a player will receive. Regardless of your odd arguments, he's a beast, a fine blocker and a huge red zone target. Don't know why some are so determined to be negative, something to crow about later if you happen to be right?

I don't quote old posts to boast, so no. Just bringing a contrary opinion for discussion or for a warning. As for your question on targets, the answer is simple math. I have brought it up before, but there just aren't many targets to go around in this offense. You'll be lucky to get 33 passes from Smith on average and it sure looks like Reid is intent on getting Maclin involved and you already know the RBs will get at least a third of the targets. After the RBs, there will be about 20 targets left to spread around. Maclin will get at least 7, maybe 8. That leaves about a dozen targets for the other WRs and TEs. I predict Kelce will get 6 of them. This is just not an offense that is going to produce very many targets for the TE, no matter how good he is. I still think 100 targets is a realistic projection for Kelce. I'll be very surprised if he eclipses 110 barring something unforeseen, such as a Maclin injury or historical number of passing attempts.

He's off to a good start, but it'll be very hard to be a top TE with 100 targets or less. From this point on, he's likely to underperform expectations which is why he's a great guy to trade in redraft. His value will never be higher. Preseason hype + big first week is as good as it gets.

yeah, trade immediately!!! That's not the shark move, more like the puffer fish. This guy is $$$. What a ridiculous post, "a great talent", lol. Even more so when Smith loves throwing to anyone that's not a WR, at least for TD's. Watch Kelce play, use the eye test, he is dynamic, strong, quick for a big man, passes with flying colors. I would trade for Kelce if I didn't have him already, easy top 5 barring injury.

That's exactly what guppies say when they get lucky in week 1 and someone suggests it won't continue. It's ok. You've got strength in numbers. You can laugh me out of here, but it won't help you down the line. You could maximize value right now, though, instead of killing the messenger.

A contrary opinion is just fine. I welcome it and I have no insider knowledge or know anymore than anyone else. I'm just a pleased owner in my league trying to enjoy a player predicted to bust out and it looks like he's going to. How either of us or anyone outside the Chiefs at all can know how targets per game will shake out is purely guess work. My guess is Reid will involve him at every opportunity and especially in the red zone, he's a huge target with good hands.

They can't just pass to Maclin or Charles all the time. Sure, you could "cash in" on his week one but what do you do at TE after that, unless you happen to have drafted Gronk AND Kelce. How do you know what waiver/FE TE's out there WILL produce what you're getting rid of to cash in on Kelce's "abberration" of a week one? So say you get rid, then what? Look to pick up ASJ or Eifert if they're even FA's and expect them to do what you think Kelce won't?

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msommer

msommer 8,981

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I don't quite understand why people reference his ADP now, particularly since he actually is living up to it at this moment.

Personally I don;t draft after the season has started, so Kelce is either on my team or he isn't.

6/106/2 is a very high line for a TE. But no one is expecting 96/1696/32 when the season is over.

Perhaps if he got that we could end the discussion of his ADP...

PS Last years TE2 had 85/885/10. TE3 had 84/1008/6. We'll see in the coming weeks if those numbers are attainable

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VaTerp

VaTerp 579

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Posted

1 target?

Could've easily had a TD earlier. Was open in the end zone on the short pass thrown to Maclin at the GL. Also could've just thrown the little bubble screen to Kelce that same GL possession (when they threw the negative yardage pass to Charles instead).

Agreed. Reid and A. Smith are pissing me off.

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urbanhack

urbanhack 12,474

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1 target?

Could've easily had a TD earlier. Was open in the end zone on the short pass thrown to Maclin at the GL. Also could've just thrown the little bubble screen to Kelce that same GL possession (when they threw the negative yardage pass to Charles instead).

Agreed. Reid and A. Smith are pissing me off.

I'm sure they have you in their thoughts.

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