MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Boston said:
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Official Johnny Manziel Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Whether or not people like it, he's going to go top 5.
Captain Quinoa
Footballguy
Old Smiley
Footballguy
On this week's On the Couch, Lance Zierlein was super strong that The Bucks and Lovey were way high on Johnny.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Back to the drawing board..
gump
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
Bucs' Lovie Smith says Johnny Manziel's style can work in NFLBy Chase Goodbread
College Football 24/7 writer
College Football 24/7 writer
Faust
MVP
Excerpt from Peter King's MMQB:
The Wonderlic is obviously no guarantee of success in the NFL; however, all things being equal, I would prefer that a QB drafted by my team scores higher on this test rather than lower.
cstu
Footballguy
I watched him on Gruden's QB Camp and you can tell he's a smart kid. He has some anger issues but so does Rivers so he just needs to learn how to control himself.
probably so but i also think the difference between 20 and 30 is probably meaningless. maybe the difference between 6 and 30 is but who really knows. vince young scored a 6 and that didn't stop him from being the #3 pick that year.
Last edited by a moderator:
Just found this link, kind of interesting. they actually have young down for a 15. Gabbert scored a 42. I'm sure there's some other interesting ones on there.
http://www.nflstatanalysis.net/2011/03/qb-wonderlic-scores.html
http://www.nflstatanalysis.net/2011/03/qb-wonderlic-scores.html
Last edited by a moderator:
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Gabbert scored a 31. He scored 42 on a practice test.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I've done some analysis on this in the past and what I discovered is there is a wonderlic "sweet spot" for QBs. I'll preface this like I do all things predictive with "nothing is absolute and there are always exceptions". That being said, I've found that those who score too high don't pan out while those who score too low don't either. I've found that scores in the mid to upper 20s through low/mid 30s are ideal for QBs. You get much higher than mid 30s, seems like there are few success stories. Not sure if that means anything or just pure chance. My take on my findings is that your QB needs to be smart enough to digest an offense and out-think the defense but not too smart where he over-out-thinks the defense. Again, nothing overly scientific but it's a pattern I've noticed.
Last edited by a moderator:
Without doing an in depth analysis i bet there are few success stories for higher than mid 30's because there are few QB's who scored that high.
jurb26
Footballguy
Agree. The only QB who scored high that I can think of off the top of my head is A. Smith. He's done pretty well.
matuski
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
Kliff Kingsbury: Johnny Manziel wants to be greatest ever
By Chase Goodbread
College Football 24/7 writer
By Chase Goodbread
College Football 24/7 writer
Last edited by a moderator:
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Thanks for your wonderful contribution!Im just explaining what I have noticed. It might have relevance and it might not.
What other cohort do the exceptions fall in the middle? Usually exceptional outliers fall on the edge of the curve. Id say a quality starting QB is definitely an exceptional outlier.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Any odds in Vegas on his draft spot?
Faust
MVP
Last edited by a moderator:
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Maybe his stated range is the middle of the curve, but do we know that - is the center of that stated range in fact situated smack in the middle of the bell curve (or could it be above average - I know VY definitely brought the average down
)? Genius.* Not sure about you, but I've never seen a collation of the data for every QB Wonderlic in draft history, sorted by starters, non-starters, busts, etc.
Last edited by a moderator:
pantherclub
Footballguy
honest question
How many games do you expect him to play on average a year? I would say 12.
matuski
Footballguy
Fair enough. Just find it intuitive (obvious) that most QBs would be "smart enough", and would have a clustering of test scores like any other sampling. And that when you take test scores from either extreme you will find fewer stories of success (because there are fewer stories).Maybe his stated range is the middle of the curve, but do we know that - is the center of that stated range in fact situated smack in the middle of the bell curve (or could it be above average - I know VY definitely brought the average down
* Not sure about you, but I've never seen a collation of the data for every QB Wonderlic in draft history, sorted by starters, non-starters, busts, etc.
Faust
MVP
Vector
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
zero to my knowledge
How many games did Vick miss in college?
I trust you to already know that the NFL is a wee bit different then college. One doesnt necessarily translate to the other.
Old Smiley
Footballguy
I believe with Manziel it wasn't that he missed games but that at the end of the year he was appreciably less effective just because he was beat up.
Vector
Footballguy
Yes, the NFL has a much higher skill level. However, I will not ascribe the term "injury prone" to a player who has no history of such just because he plays similarly to someone else who had injury problems.
According to you he is guilty not even before a trial, but before being arrested!
According to you he is guilty not even before a trial, but before being arrested!
pantherclub
Footballguy
I don't think he is injury prone just not big enough to withstand the abuse.
Gandalf
Footballguy
There is so much more to the label injury prone. We don't really understand why some players seem to be more fragile than others. Maybe it's the way there tendons and ligaments are constructed. Maybe Manziel who has never been hurt before is like a piece of iron? Maybe he knows how to avoid the big hit like a matador? I don't see how you can say that a guy who never missed significant time is a red flag in the NFL because of injury risk.
pantherclub
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
I think there is some validity to worrying about Manziel being able to avoid injury in the NFL. Him staying healthy throughout college is pretty meaningless. We've seen lots of guys who were healthy in college that then had problems in the NFL. Conversely, we've seen guys with injury problems in college and stay healthy in the NFL.
The concern is that Manziel plays a style of football that puts himself at more risk than the conventional QB. At least in college he did. He runs around and creates plays with his feet. He plays with a certain reckless abandonment that many love to rave about when he's doing it successfully to create a "wow" play at A&M and earned him the title "Johnny Football." Unfortunately the guys are much bigger, faster and generally nastier in the NFL. On top of that Manziel doesn't have the size of a Cam or Big Ben to as easily take the beating of such bigger/better athletes nor is he as athletic as many would have thought after his combine performance. This doesn't intrinsically mean he will be injury prone in the NFL. It does raise a legitimate concern, though. I think he will have to adapt his game (like any QB) to reduce that "Johnny Football" approach a great deal in order to protect himself. If he is to be the future franchise QB of a team they will encourage him to do so as well. It's also probably not a bad idea because I just don't think it will be very effective in the NFL.
So while it may be a bit misplaced to throw an injury prone label out there. I don't think the overall theme and source for that concern should be ignored, either.
The concern is that Manziel plays a style of football that puts himself at more risk than the conventional QB. At least in college he did. He runs around and creates plays with his feet. He plays with a certain reckless abandonment that many love to rave about when he's doing it successfully to create a "wow" play at A&M and earned him the title "Johnny Football." Unfortunately the guys are much bigger, faster and generally nastier in the NFL. On top of that Manziel doesn't have the size of a Cam or Big Ben to as easily take the beating of such bigger/better athletes nor is he as athletic as many would have thought after his combine performance. This doesn't intrinsically mean he will be injury prone in the NFL. It does raise a legitimate concern, though. I think he will have to adapt his game (like any QB) to reduce that "Johnny Football" approach a great deal in order to protect himself. If he is to be the future franchise QB of a team they will encourage him to do so as well. It's also probably not a bad idea because I just don't think it will be very effective in the NFL.
So while it may be a bit misplaced to throw an injury prone label out there. I don't think the overall theme and source for that concern should be ignored, either.
Last edited by a moderator:
karmarooster
Footballguy
This may be of interest:
http://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/johnny-manziel-clubbing-left-with-lauren-hanley-fsu-model/#0
http://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/johnny-manziel-clubbing-left-with-lauren-hanley-fsu-model/#0
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Lance Zierlein is a sports talk host in Houston and had this to say on a recent podcast:
“Lovie Smith and Jason Licht love Johnny Manziel…love love love,” Zierlein said during his weekly podcast. “Lovie was there at his pro day, and he was there for Mike Evans as well, but I know that Lovie Smith loves Johnny Manziel.”
Zierlein, along with the other hosts on the podcast all said that they were surprised by this news, but Zierlein said he believed his source fully.
“I’ve been told that if Manziel makes it to seven, he won’t get past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers,” Zierlein continued. “They think that highly of him.” – Tampa CBS
I had not seen this posted anywhere.
“Lovie Smith and Jason Licht love Johnny Manziel…love love love,” Zierlein said during his weekly podcast. “Lovie was there at his pro day, and he was there for Mike Evans as well, but I know that Lovie Smith loves Johnny Manziel.”
Zierlein, along with the other hosts on the podcast all said that they were surprised by this news, but Zierlein said he believed his source fully.
“I’ve been told that if Manziel makes it to seven, he won’t get past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers,” Zierlein continued. “They think that highly of him.” – Tampa CBS
I had not seen this posted anywhere.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I don't think a player whose style is consistently described as reckless in college and who also stayed healthy who was able to stay heathy throughout college is meaningless. May not mean it will translate in the nfl and also not meaningless. This would be a very different conversation if manziel was hurt a lot in college
jurb26
Footballguy
GregR
Footballguy
I think people put about too much stock into whether there was an actual injury in the past.
Injuries are often fairly random events in whether a given hit results in one or not. A fraction of a second difference can cause an injury to happen or not. If we're talking about a degenerative physical situation, that would be a valid thing to call injury prone. I'd add people who won't play through being hurt, as opposed to injured, the label fits for our purpose.
I don't think lack of injury in two 13 game college seasons as a 20ish year old means much here. A team drafting him is looking for a QB that will be playing for them for 10+ years. He'll go through 16 to (they hope) 19 games a season against faster players than what he faced in college. In that time he's going to lose physical ability and flexibility, and he's not going to recover from hits as easily.
In the absence of an existing degenerative condition, I think overwhelmingly the thing to be concerned with is how many hits you think he'll be subjected to. Not whether he made it through 2 college seasons healthy as a younger man than what he'll be down the road for you. A lot of that will be controlled by his style of play and whether you can get it under control if you think it's reckless.
Last edited by a moderator:
cstu
Footballguy
These days teams are more likely to be happy getting 4 years of a QB on a cheap contract. Dalton has been good for the Bengals but if he wants $15M they could just let him walk. The same goes for Manziel if he gets hurt.
