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3 hours ago, zftcg said:

I've been harping on this since almost the beginning of the thread, but if you're down 14 in the fourth and score a TD, the numbers overwhelmingly favor going for two. Steelers were in that situation twice today and kicked both times.

I thought Tomlin used to go for two nearly all the time. What changed his mind?

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8 hours ago, Johnny Rock said:

I thought Tomlin used to go for two nearly all the time. What changed his mind?

He never did it consistently. Didn't seem like it was math-driven, just when he felt like it.

In any event, as Levin documents in that article, no one ever goes for two in that situation. My guess is that don't even consider it. The thinking is you take the point, score again, and then you're "back in the game". I'll admit it is very counterintuitive to go for two, but the numbers are pretty clear.

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8 hours ago, Johnny Rock said:

I thought Tomlin used to go for two nearly all the time. What changed his mind?

I remember a game vs the Packers where they went for 2 four times, missed them all, and lost by 3 or so. I suspect he started going for it a lot less after that.

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14 minutes ago, zftcg said:

He never did it consistently. Didn't seem like it was math-driven, just when he felt like it.

This is what bothered me about them going for 2 so much that year - didn't seem like there was any logic/math/whatever behind it - just whenever they felt like it.

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  • 3 weeks later...

We may need to start a "Post here when coaches do something obviously smart" thread in honor of Doug Pederson. Everyone's talking about the "guts" he showed going for it on 4th, but the one at the end of the first half was a high-percentage play (and great play design!) and the one in the 4th quarter was pretty clearly the right move at that point in the game -- no way you want to give the ball back to Brady if you can avoid it.

I hope the Eagles' success encourages more teams to follow Pederson's lead. Maybe we'll be able to finally retire this thread because coaches actually get smart about managing game situa--damn, I almost made it all the way through that sentence without cracking up :lmao:

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46 minutes ago, zftcg said:

We may need to start a "Post here when coaches do something obviously smart" thread in honor of Doug Pederson. Everyone's talking about the "guts" he showed going for it on 4th, but the one at the end of the first half was a high-percentage play (and great play design!) and the one in the 4th quarter was pretty clearly the right move at that point in the game -- no way you want to give the ball back to Brady if you can avoid it.

I hope the Eagles' success encourages more teams to follow Pederson's lead. Maybe we'll be able to finally retire this thread because coaches actually get smart about managing game situa--damn, I almost made it all the way through that sentence without cracking up :lmao:

Well he did get caught up in chasing that missed extra point in the 1st half. No reason to go for 2 when up 12 in the 2nd quarter and if they'd gotten there by more conventional means (2 field goals instead of a TD with a missed xp) he almost certainly would have kicked there. 

Regardless, a minor quibble in an otherwise brilliantly coached Super Bowl where a coach finally chucked aside tradition and job security play calling in favor of making decisions to actually increase your chances of winning. 

Those were the only 2 coaches in the league last night that would have gone for it in both of those scenarios and I don't think it's a coincidence they were playing in the Super Bowl. Like you said hopefully in this copy cat league it will finally be a big next step on coaches coaching to win instead of coaching to keep their job, or coaching because that's how people used to do it 50 years ago before we had analytics telling us how bad those overly conservative decisions were. 

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4 hours ago, zftcg said:

We may need to start a "Post here when coaches do something obviously smart" thread in honor of Doug Pederson. Everyone's talking about the "guts" he showed going for it on 4th, but the one at the end of the first half was a high-percentage play (and great play design!) and the one in the 4th quarter was pretty clearly the right move at that point in the game -- no way you want to give the ball back to Brady if you can avoid it.

I hope the Eagles' success encourages more teams to follow Pederson's lead. Maybe we'll be able to finally retire this thread because coaches actually get smart about managing game situa--damn, I almost made it all the way through that sentence without cracking up :lmao:

Hey when you back up Brett Favre for years, you begin to think anything is possible.  

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31 minutes ago, Walking Boot said:

Where does "benching Malcolm Butler" land on the stupid hierarchy? 

Pretty dang high, especially when your defense is garbage.  Did they ever say what Butler did to earn the Hoody's wrath?  Did he like show up a minute late to the team brunch or something?

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So why was Butler benched?  He cleaned out his locker early, because he knew the Pats would play hardball with him during free agency.  He knew this was his last game as a Patriot.  Belichick decided to do what he could to ruin his career by not giving him playing time during the biggest stage.  Not only was it obviously stupid by benching your best CB, but it's a total jerk move by costing a man money over spite.

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6 minutes ago, Dedfin said:

So why was Butler benched?  He cleaned out his locker early, because he knew the Pats would play hardball with him during free agency.  He knew this was his last game as a Patriot.  Belichick decided to do what he could to ruin his career by not giving him playing time during the biggest stage.  Not only was it obviously stupid by benching your best CB, but it's a total jerk move by costing a man money over spite.

Glad you got the inside scoop. :rolleyes:

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Bill Simmons floated a theory in his podcast today that they told him he wouldn't be starting, he reacted badly to the news, so they just benched him for the whole game. Simmons was just speculating, but I have to admit it's more plausible than any other explanations I've heard.

By the way, there's a good chance we may never hear the full story.

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17 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Why is he pegging it on commentators? It's the majority of coaches that choose the conservative approach rather than the analytically correct one too. 

Because Commentators set the narrative. Kind of like Collingsworth being so flummoxed by the Eagles going for the Touchdown before halftime. It's like he had not done any research into how the Eagles had done things during the entire season. And being aggressive in those situations during the season had a lot to do with why the Eagles were even in the Super Bowl.

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29 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Why is he pegging it on commentators? It's the majority of coaches that choose the conservative approach rather than the analytically correct one too. 

Not letting coaches off the hook at all, but I swear to God, every single time when a team does the "safe" thing and punts/kicks a FG/kicks the XP, the announcer praises them for "taking the points" or "living to fight another day" or some other tired cliche. Collinsworth owns a big chunk of Pro Football Focus, yet he can't seem to understand basic concepts like win probability (and he's one of the better ones!)

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11 minutes ago, dhockster said:

Because Commentators set the narrative. Kind of like Collingsworth being so flummoxed by the Eagles going for the Touchdown before halftime. It's like he had not done any research into how the Eagles had done things during the entire season. And being aggressive in those situations during the season had a lot to do with why the Eagles were even in the Super Bowl.

That's an excellent point. It's not just that he blew the call on that one situation. He was supposed to be spending the entire week before the game boning up on each team so that he could better explain to viewers what they were doing. And yet he somehow missed the fact that their success all season was tied to their aggressiveness.

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  • 6 months later...
2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Falcons 2nd and goal at the 2, julio on the sidelines for 2nd and 3rd down.

And then also 4th down when two tight ends split out wide.

Wow

What about when a team runs one of the most famous trick plays in NFL. history, and in their next game they run the exact same play and the opposing D is somehow not prepared for it?

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4 hours ago, zftcg said:

What about when a team runs one of the most famous trick plays in NFL. history, and in their next game they run the exact same play and the opposing D is somehow not prepared for it?

I dunno.  I almost feel like because they ran it the last game, the odds of them doing that again the very next game (when it might be 'expected") would be very low.  I don't think they'll do it again this year.  The first game was very random, risky, and odd for them to try it.  It was perfect.

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4 hours ago, Deamon said:

I dunno.  I almost feel like because they ran it the last game, the odds of them doing that again the very next game (when it might be 'expected") would be very low.  I don't think they'll do it again this year.  The first game was very random, risky, and odd for them to try it.  It was perfect.

I would have thought that there would be some sort of tell in the formation. And you'd think the coaches might have primed them to look for it. But I suppose you're right that it wasn't "obviously" stupid.

How about this: When you lose in the playoffs because of your inability to punch in the game-winning TD on four straight red-zone plays in the final seconds, then spend the entire offseason getting killed for your play calling, maybe you should come up with some more creative options in case you end up in the exact same situation in the next season opener. Again, caveat that we don't know exactly what the play calls were and what might have gone wrong (other than Ryan's horrible passing). Still, it seemed like the Eagles took the (thoroughly predictable) step of doubling Julio and the Falcons didn't really do enough to counter that move.

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11 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Falcons 2nd and goal at the 2, julio on the sidelines for 2nd and 3rd down.

And then also 4th down when two tight ends split out wide.

Wow

Tricky!

 

4 hours ago, Deamon said:

I dunno.  I almost feel like because they ran it the last game, the odds of them doing that again the very next game (when it might be 'expected") would be very low.  I don't think they'll do it again this year.  The first game was very random, risky, and odd for them to try it.  It was perfect.

Next time they run it, the QB will just be running a clear out and the receiver will run for a big gain behind him. Sark will watch the film with his mouth open wondering why he has no creativity.

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11 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Falcons 2nd and goal at the 2, julio on the sidelines for 2nd and 3rd down.

And then also 4th down when two tight ends split out wide.

Wow

I just have to say, others may mark the beginning of football season off the ring ceremony, or the opening kickoff, or the first Sunday, but for me, I know football is truly back when this thread gets resuscitated and we can once again start #####ing about horrible coaching decisions :lmao:

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One of my pet peeves, because Cal lost a game under Tedford with the same horrible decision. Fourth and 1, in field goal range, up by 3, time running down, other team’s out of time outs.

Your choice is to get one yard and win the game immediately, or kick a FG and give the ball back to Aaron Rodgers with him down by 6.

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4 hours ago, CalBear said:

One of my pet peeves, because Cal lost a game under Tedford with the same horrible decision. Fourth and 1, in field goal range, up by 3, time running down, other team’s out of time outs.

Your choice is to get one yard and win the game immediately, or kick a FG and give the ball back to Aaron Rodgers with him down by 6.

It is even worse when taking the previous play into consideration.  

3rd & 1 against a defense that cannot stop the run.  A first down wins the game.  Why not just run it twice here?  Worst case, Rodgers gets the ball with less time on the clock than he had (at about the 2 minute warning), most probable case you win.  Instead the play-call is incomplete pass followed by field goal. 

Edited by GreenNGold
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2 hours ago, GreenNGold said:

It is even worse when taking the previous play into consideration.  

3rd & 1 against a defense that cannot stop the run.  A first down wins the game.  Why not just run it twice here?  Worst case, Rodgers gets the ball with less time on the clock than he had (at about the 2 minute warning), most probable case you win.  Instead the play-call is incomplete pass followed by field goal. 

Andy Reid coaching tree. I was so excited to get Howard in two leagues and then I'm face palming myself last night watching him get no cracks at the endzone and not even on the field for crucial third and one situations. That's my complaint fantasy-wise but obviously this killed the Bears last night. 

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