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28 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Love the data. Can you share the query you ran? I literally can't come up with a rational explanation for this unless the 56/189 in tied games include those times the team scored in OT to win - which, while it obviously needs to be factored into the analysis, would completely skew the comparison on its face.

I was using PFR's Drive Finder, so it's looking at the result of the drive, not the result of the game. 

Quote

 

Current search:

From 1999 to 2018, any team vs. any team, in the regular season, started in the fourth quarter, 2:00 or less remaining, started with Kickoff, scoring margin is between -2 and -1

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/drive_finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=1999&year_max=2018&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&start_event[]=Kickoff&end_event[]=Touchdown&end_event[]=Field+Goal&end_event[]=Missed+FG&end_event[]=Fumble&end_event[]=Interception&end_event[]=Downs&end_event[]=Punt&end_event[]=Blocked+Punt&end_event[]=Blocked+FG&end_event[]=Safety&end_event[]=End+of+Half&end_event[]=End+of+Game&exclude_kneels=1&drive_st_gtlt=lt&drive_st_own_opp=Own&drive_end_gtlt=lt&drive_end_own_opp=Own&drive_num_gtlt=gt&start_quarter[]=4&end_quarter[]=1&end_quarter[]=2&end_quarter[]=3&end_quarter[]=4&end_quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=2&seconds=0&margin_min=-2&margin_max=-1#offense_totals::none

I re-ran it looking just at drives starting with less than one minute.There, teams trailing scored 13.2% of the time (12/91), while tied teams scored 18.2% of the time (16/88).

And how's this for a monkey wrench; if you're down by exactly 3, drives do slightly better than being down by 1 or 2. 16.1% FG and 6.8% TD (22.9% scores vs. 21.1%), while passing goes up to 94.4% of the plays called (48/814).

 

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I think I found a bug in PFR. It's reporting incorrect numbers for pass/run breakdown. When I run a similar query in the Game Play Finder, it shows 49.8%/30.2% breakdown for pass vs. rush in tied games, and 65.9%/18.3% when down by 1 or 2. That's still a pretty big difference, and the query isn't exactly the same (in the drive finder I'm only looking at drives started by receiving a kickoff), but it's not as astonishing as 92% would be.

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21 minutes ago, CalBear said:

I think I found a bug in PFR. It's reporting incorrect numbers for pass/run breakdown. When I run a similar query in the Game Play Finder, it shows 49.8%/30.2% breakdown for pass vs. rush in tied games, and 65.9%/18.3% when down by 1 or 2. That's still a pretty big difference, and the query isn't exactly the same (in the drive finder I'm only looking at drives started by receiving a kickoff), but it's not as astonishing as 92% would be.

Those total up to 80% and 84.2%. What are the 16-20% of plays that are neither pass nor run?

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1 minute ago, zftcg said:
2 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Sacks?

Non-binary plays?

I don't understand your response, but the tool could only count pass attempts, not pass attempts plus sacks, as passes. Also, since it is a drive-based query, it is probably including field goal and punt plays.

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12 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I don't understand your response, but the tool could only count pass attempts, not pass attempts plus sacks, as passes. Also, since it is a drive-based query, it is probably including field goal and punt plays.

It was a joke referring to gender designations. It used to be safe to assume that male/female percentages had to equal 100%, but no longer. (Sorry, I guess that did sort of come out of nowhere. Insight into how my brain works.)

And yes, you're probably right. I had always thought sacks counted as pass plays and QB scrambles counted as runs, but maybe PFR doesn't track them that way.

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1 hour ago, zftcg said:

Those total up to 80% and 84.2%. What are the 16-20% of plays that are neither pass nor run?

Looks like special teams plays (FG, XP, KO, XP, Punt, 2PC).

Of offensive plays from scrimmage only, in tied games it's 1743 passes, 1053 rushes, so 62.3% are pass plays. In trailing games, it's 1257 passes, 349 rushes, so 78.3% pass plays. Significant difference still. 

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9 hours ago, shadyridr said:

Horrific call with 1:07 left in the game.

Context matters. Gano had just missed a chip shot FG & a PAT. 

And the play they called to go for two would have worked had cam not overthrown a wide open receiver

 It was absolutely the right call &  given the circumstances, a much higher probability of success. 

 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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17 hours ago, CalBear said:

Since 1999, teams which received a kickoff down by 1 with less than 2 minutes remaining (n=99) scored 21 times (21.2%). Those which received a kickoff in a tie game (n=189) scored 56 times (29.6%).

Wow, totally not what I expected.  Great stuff and thank you for correcting me.

Is the data the same if you eliminate situations where the receiving team had no time to score? Like maybe less than 2 minutes but more than 50 seconds or something like that?  I wonder if it changes anything. 

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35 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Wow, totally not what I expected.  Great stuff and thank you for correcting me.

Is the data the same if you eliminate situations where the receiving team had no time to score? Like maybe less than 2 minutes but more than 50 seconds or something like that?  I wonder if it changes anything. 

PFR can't exactly do that, but you can run a query on games with 1 minute left and subtract those from those with 2 minutes left.

Trailing: 

  • Less than 2 minutes: 31/147 (21.1%)
  • Less than 1 minute: 12/91 (13.2%)
  • 1-2 minutes: 19/56 (33.9%)

Tied:

  • Less than 2 minutes: 57/190 (30.0%)   * This number is off by one from the first time I ran it, not sure why. Maybe addition of this week's data.
  • Less than 1 minute: 16/88 (18.2%)
  • 1-2 minutes: 41/102 (40.2%)

So, pretty substantial differences in all of these situations.

I was just thinking, one possibility is that the "obviously stupid" thing is not the approach of the offensive team but of the defense. Maybe they play too cautiously, or not cautiously enough in tie games. Harder to get stats on that.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

There's McVay going for it on 4th again.  And not to Gurley!  What another obviously stupid call.  /Knee Jerk Sauce Guy

Your obsession with HSG is interesting.  You do realize he has you on ignore?

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4 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Your obsession with HSG is interesting.  You do realize he has you on ignore?

Just proving a point fred.  His McVay "doing dumb things" in the "obviously stupid coach" thread was all about his fantasy football man-love of Gurley.  Thus, it was a bull####, biased take on McVay, which his not so subtle backtracking has since shown.

And BTW, I'm not the one who went ballistic with the name-calling.  My reaction was simply disputing his stance on McVay doing dumb things.  The truth is he was upset his player wasn't getting the rock and came in here to cry about it.  There's a whining thread for that.

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6 minutes ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

Just proving a point fred.  His McVay "doing dumb things" in the "obviously stupid coach" thread was all about his fantasy football man-love of Gurley.  Thus, it was a bull####, biased take on McVay, which his not so subtle backtracking has since shown.

And BTW, I'm not the one who went ballistic with the name-calling.  My reaction was simply disputing his stance on McVay doing dumb things.  The truth is he was upset his player wasn't getting the rock and came in here to cry about it.  There's a whining thread for that.

Ok seems like you two may have some history (given that he's put you on ignore).  I have no idea so it's all good.

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Colts just had 1st and 15 and completed and 12 yard pass. So it would be 2nd  and 3 at the opponents 23. But on the play, there was defensive holding and they accepted the penalty to have 1st and 10 at the 30. I would rather have 2nd and 3.

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3 minutes ago, sportsphysio said:

Barkley getting 5 touches in the 2nd half...great offensive game plan.

Unbelievable!!!  He was absolutely abusing the Eagles in the first half.  Don't know how Shurmur could be that unaware in the second half.  He finished with only 13 carries, while leading most of the game????

Very possibly saved the eagles season.

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5 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Surprised no Packers fans have posted in here today.

They went for it on 4th and 4 late in the game - playing for the win.  And some of the passes were creative.  I don't think McCarthy did too much wrong yesterday.

You just can't expect to win when 8 of 11 defensive starters from pre-season are out of the game.  Plus two offensive lineman got knocked out, Graham has a broken thumb... just brutalized this year.

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10 hours ago, zftcg said:

To paraphrase the old saying about Bear Bryant, Hue can take hiz'n and lose to your'n, and he can take your'n and lose to hiz'n.

I think this was Bum Phillips talking about Don Shula. "He can take hiz'n and beat your'n and he can take your'n and beat hiz'n"

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2 hours ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

I think this was Bum Phillips talking about Don Shula. "He can take hiz'n and beat your'n and he can take your'n and beat hiz'n"

Huh, it may be that we're both right. According to Phillips' Wikipedia page, he said it about both Shula and Bryant.

BTW, I had forgotten what great quote Bum gave. My other favorites are "There's two kinds of coaches, them that's fired and them that's gonna be fired" and "The harder we played the behinder we got."

Edited by zftcg
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This is the thread to post in “when coaches do something obviously stupid” but I feel remiss if we don’t acknowledge the Jaguars collective effort yesterday while their game with the Bills was tied 14-14.

While Donte Moncrief was involved in an epic possession struggle (TD was overturned on review), Leonard Fournette started a brawl. I don’t care what was said or done, the biggest star on the team cannot do something an 8th grader understands is stupid & selfish. Next Hyde lost a yard, another TD got called back for holding, Bortles lost a yard, Bortles got sacked, and Lambo missed a FG.

They’ve got a lot of competition in today’s NFL but I’d nominate that for 2018 Dumbest Performance, Team Category. The next drive, the Bills drove down for the go ahead score.

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34 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

This is the thread to post in “when coaches do something obviously stupid” but I feel remiss if we don’t acknowledge the Jaguars collective effort yesterday while their game with the Bills was tied 14-14.

While Donte Moncrief was involved in an epic possession struggle (TD was overturned on review), Leonard Fournette started a brawl. I don’t care what was said or done, the biggest star on the team cannot do something an 8th grader understands is stupid & selfish. Next Hyde lost a yard, another TD got called back for holding, Bortles lost a yard, Bortles got sacked, and Lambo missed a FG.

They’ve got a lot of competition in today’s NFL but I’d nominate that for 2018 Dumbest Performance, Team Category. The next drive, the Bills drove down for the go ahead score.

I was watching that on Red Zone and it was unbelievable. To go from a possible TD to losing a) a replay review, b) your RB1, c) 15 yards and then missing a chip shot FG, I think that has to be the single worst set of downs I've ever seen on a football field. They would have been better off just throwing a pick in the end zone on first down. At least their fans would have been less tortured.

And I think you have the right idea there. Like when the entire D-line gets pressure and they just award a "team sack".

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/26/2018 at 4:41 PM, zftcg said:

I was watching that on Red Zone and it was unbelievable. To go from a possible TD to losing a) a replay review, b) your RB1, c) 15 yards and then missing a chip shot FG, I think that has to be the single worst set of downs I've ever seen on a football field.

Jags Week 12: That was the worst four-down sequence in the history of football.

Jags Week 14: Hold my beer.

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After tying it up late, the Chiefs recovered a fumble on the Ravens 23 with 38 seconds left. Despite having one of the league's best offenses, they were content to run the clock down and attempt a 43-yarder, which Butker missed, sending the game into OT ...

Oops, sorry, wrong thread. I meant to put this in "Post here when coaches do something obviously beneficial to fantasy owners".

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44 minutes ago, heckmanm said:

Who was it earlier today that re-tried a made XP after a defensive penalty, then missed the 2nd kick? Did we ever figure out if they had to re-try the kick?

That be the Browns.........

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How about Anthony Lynn having his starting running back in for an end-of-game onside kick? Especially coming on the heels of that dumb reverse that got Gordon injured.

[Ekeler] suffered an unspecified injury attempting to field an onside kick late in the game

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/chargers-austin-ekeler-excels-in-week-14-but-injured-late/

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5 minutes ago, PhantomJB said:

How about Anthony Lynn having his starting running back in for an end-of-game onside kick? Especially coming on the heels of that dumb reverse that got Gordon injured.

[Ekeler] suffered an unspecified injury attempting to field an onside kick late in the game

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/chargers-austin-ekeler-excels-in-week-14-but-injured-late/

All teams put their best hands team in on an onside kick. If Ekeler is one of the best players to handle an onside kick, he should be out there. 

 

Edited by MNTom
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3 hours ago, Dez said:

That be the Browns.........

It was a dead ball encroachment pentalty. Because it was a dead ball the first kick never happened.  They could have declined the penalty and kick from the 15 yard line or accept the penalty and move up to the 10.

Edited by Utter Chaos
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1 hour ago, Utter Chaos said:

It was a dead ball encroachment pentalty. Because it was a dead ball the first kick never happened.  They could have declined the penalty and kick from the 15 yard line or accept the penalty and move up to the 10.

Do we know that?  It was unclear at the time whether the blew it dead for encroachment or called offsides, and didn't the ref say something like "the Browns have elected to re-kick".

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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34 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:
2 hours ago, Utter Chaos said:

It was a dead ball encroachment pentalty. Because it was a dead ball the first kick never happened.  They could have declined the penalty and kick from the 15 yard line or accept the penalty and move up to the 10.

Do we know that?  It was unclear at the time whether the blew it dead for encroachment or called offsides, and didn't the ref say something like "the Browns have elected to re-kick".

The NFL play-by-play and Gamebook both say "No Play".

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8 hours ago, [scooter] said:

The NFL play-by-play and Gamebook both say "No Play".

You're interpreting that incorrectly.  They say "no play" for any accepted live ball penalty as well.  Since the penalty is accepted and the down repeated, they clarify the previous play as "no play".

For instance...

(10:35) B.Mayfield pass short left to D.Fells to CAR 43 for 1 yard (K.Love). PENALTY on CLV-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 44 - No Play

I actually think the play by play lends more credence to the idea that it was a live ball penalty.  When there is a dead ball penalty the play is not even listed in the play by play.  Only the penalty is.  For instance when Carolina didn't get the snap off in time they don't list the 5 yard pass and then say "delay of game".  It just says "delay of game" and the 5 yard pass is never listed because it never happened.

Same thing here.  If the call were dead ball encroachment the made XP would not even be listed in the play by play.  It would simply say encroachment and there would be no mention of what happened after the whistle.  Since it does list the made XP that is basically proof that it was a live ball penalty that could have been declined.

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14 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

You're interpreting that incorrectly.  They say "no play" for any accepted live ball penalty as well.  Since the penalty is accepted and the down repeated, they clarify the previous play as "no play".

For instance...

(10:35) B.Mayfield pass short left to D.Fells to CAR 43 for 1 yard (K.Love). PENALTY on CLV-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 44 - No Play

I actually think the play by play lends more credence to the idea that it was a live ball penalty.  When there is a dead ball penalty the play is not even listed in the play by play.  Only the penalty is.  For instance when Carolina didn't get the snap off in time they don't list the 5 yard pass and then say "delay of game".  It just says "delay of game" and the 5 yard pass is never listed because it never happened.

Same thing here.  If the call were dead ball encroachment the made XP would not even be listed in the play by play.  It would simply say encroachment and there would be no mention of what happened after the whistle.  Since it does list the made XP that is basically proof that it was a live ball penalty that could have been declined.

So they accepted the penalty just to kick from closer? That makes no sense. Like, I literally can't imagine any reason for doing that.

Are you allowed to accept a penalty on an XP kick and apply it to a 2pt attempt? So the D is offside on the kick, and you take a half-the-distance penalty and get to try a 2PC from the 1? Because that might make sense (though not in the scenario the Browns were in, since an XP would have put them up 4). But just to re-kick? I got nothing ...

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