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Marvin Jones (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter uniman4
- Start date
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Rotoworld is the first source for current news and the last source for analysis of it.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Probably top 3.
Gonna get paid more than his value. I'm thinking my Bengals will be looking WR early in the draft.
-QG
bostonfred
Footballguy
Lions gonna lion.
CalBear
Footballguy
Eh. Hard to be happy about your guys going to Detroit. He got 103 targets in Cincinatti so it's not like he was sidelined there.
kerpow
Footballguy
He's moving from the 3rd passing option to potentially the first. You could argue that Tate will get more targets but Jones should be the first look in the RZ, based on his size and athleticism. There are teams with worse QBs he could have gone to as well. At worse this moves him from a Flex to a WR3, with potential of being a WR2.
What's not to like?
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msommer
Footballguy
Ebron says hiHe's moving from the 3rd passing option to potentially the first. You could argue that Tate will get more targets but Jones should be the first look in the RZ, based on his size and athleticism. There are teams with worse QBs he could have gone to as well. At worse this moves him from a Flex to a WR3, with potential of being a WR2.
What's not to like?
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CalBear
Footballguy
As I said, Jones got 103 targets in Cincinatti; Eifert only got 74. So he was the second option, not the third. Even in 2013 he was #2 on the team in targets despite not being a clear starter.He's moving from the 3rd passing option to potentially the first. You could argue that Tate will get more targets but Jones should be the first look in the RZ, based on his size and athleticism. There are teams with worse QBs he could have gone to as well. At worse this moves him from a Flex to a WR3, with potential of being a WR2.
What's not to like?
Golden Tate averaged 136 targets the last two years in Detroit (with Megatron there), Riddick had 99, and Ebron had 70. There are more targets to go around in Detroit (632 pass attempts to 505 for Cincinatti in 2015), but they do less with them; Cincinatti had 7.7 YPA, Detroit 6.6, and Cincinatti was only 2 passing TDs short of Detroit in 2015.
Hard to get excited.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Eifert was out for 3 games so those target numbers are a little distorted by that fact. I think Jones is a guy who makes sense for a team like Detroit that has another comparably priced received, which they do in Tate. In Cincinnati with A.J. taking up $13m in cap space, it's tougher to justify the expense. Apparently the Bengals were in the ballpark of the Lions offer, though, and it was simply a case of Jones wanting the bigger role that Detroit could offer.
-QG
-QG
socrates
Footballguy
In non-PPR leagues, I might rank Marvin Jones slightly higher. I think it is reasonable to expect he will become more of a redzone target than Tate. In PPR, however, I would give the edge to Tate.
Fresh Prince of Bel Nor
Footballguy
This supports your answer.
https://www.dataforceff.com/?page=articles&section=1
It seems that both are being undervalued right now. Tate was PPR's #9 wide receiver from weeks 11-16 last season as Calvin was fading and Jones is going to an offense that thrown 228 more times than Cincy over the past two seasons.
djmich
Footballguy
Agree both undervalued. Jones is going from Dalton to Stafford, from #2 to 1a/1b WR. Top 30 maybe top 20
lardonastick
Footballguy
Anyone have projections for Marvin Jones? What's his current value?
In non-ppr, I think he's a fringe WR3, not really startable on a week to week basis. But I don't really know what to make of this year's Lions offense.
In non-ppr, I think he's a fringe WR3, not really startable on a week to week basis. But I don't really know what to make of this year's Lions offense.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
My early projections for Jones 77/1037/8, in non-ppr he is ranked as my WR22.
I think Jones is the real WR1 on the Lions and not Tate this year. i could see Tate still geting 80+ receptions but his ypc is pretty low and I think Jones will be the main RZ target. Another reason to like Jones, IMO is that he could get enough volume to be a WR1 if things go his way. I don't think an 90/1300/12 season is out of the realm of possibilities.
I think Jones is the real WR1 on the Lions and not Tate this year. i could see Tate still geting 80+ receptions but his ypc is pretty low and I think Jones will be the main RZ target. Another reason to like Jones, IMO is that he could get enough volume to be a WR1 if things go his way. I don't think an 90/1300/12 season is out of the realm of possibilities.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think we will see stafford spread it around. Tate should crack 100 rec, he's been in the 90s the last 2 so 100-110 is reasonable. I would think jones will get his as well but probably closer to 75-85 rec. I see the tds being spread around, but ebron and jones seem to be the logical red zone guys. I think the wr depth they are bringing into camp is better than they have had in years, it's been Calvin/Tate and a bunch of young projects the last couple years. Kerley, Andre Roberts, Andre Caldwell (I think), an emerging tj jones, Corey fuller was better last year, some youth competing with some vets for slot and backup duties could help get some real production from that spot. Won't be surprised if riddick got some slot work as well.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Its very difficult for a receiver to join a new team and be as good as they were on their previous team. Even harder to be the wr1 on a new team. Harder still to become the wr1 on their new team when they had never been the wr1 on their previous team. Is it possible? Sure. But the odds are better that tate and ebron pick up the slack and stafford regresses some.
Jones is a low upside flyer with a decent floor. 700/5 is easily achievable. 1000 is possible. Much more than that is a bad gamble.
Jones is a low upside flyer with a decent floor. 700/5 is easily achievable. 1000 is possible. Much more than that is a bad gamble.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I looked at the last 9 games for the Lions which is when Jim Bob Cooter took over as the OC after Lombardi was fired.
It is my understanding that JBC simplified some of the plays so that the team could execute them better. They did win 6 of these games, all after the bye week adjustments.
329 pass attempts 36.6pa/gm (43pa/gm before JBC) 586 pass attempts for 16 games.
216 rushing attempts 24ra/gm (19.7/gm before JBC) 384 rushing attempts for 16 games.
The Lions ran the ball about four more times per game after JBC took over and passed the ball 6 times less per game.
Here is how often the players were targeted under JBC
C.Johnson 81 targets 9/game 24.6%
G.Tate 67 targets 7.4/game 20.3%
T.Riddick 53 targes 5.9/game 16.1%
E.Ebron 42 targets 4.7/game 12.8%
J.Bell 20 targets 2.2/game 6%
A.Abdullah 17 targets 1.9/game 5%
TJ Jones 15 targets 1.7/game 4.5%
B.Pettigrew 15 targets 1.7/game 4.5%
L.Moore 14 targets 1.6/game 4%
It is any ones guess as far as how Calvin Johnson's targets will be divided.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeClayNFL
Mike Clay–Verified account @MikeClayNFL
Calvin Johnson lined up in the slot on 20% of his snaps last season. 22% of his targets from the slot. #Lions
8:21 AM - 20 Aug 2014
I haven't seen the numbers for 2015 but I do know Calvin Johnson has been being used in the slot more in recent seasons, including last season, than he had been in the past, and in my opinion, more than he should have been. He took a lot of hits running routes over the middle that he wouldn't have if they kept him outside.
If we consider there will be sacks and some throw away targets, as well as JBC running the ball a bit more 586 passing attempts seems reasonable and would fit with the Lions running a similar number of total plays as last season of 1030.
I think it takes some time for a free agent WR to build timing with their new QB and offense. It is hard to expect a free agent to come in and be the primary target right away.
Golden Tate was the leading WR for the Lions in 2014, his first season with the team, however Calvin Johnson was injured and only played in 13 games.
Tate is a very good WR. He has led the Lions in receptions the last two seasons (yes even with Calvin fully healthy).
Based on Tates recent utilization with the team I expect that to continue and perhaps Tate even has his role expanded a bit more. He should maintain that 20% market share of the targets or see a few percentage points more now that Calvin is gone.
Eric Ebron is entering his 3rd season now, when TE usually break out (if they do) He and Tim Wright who played in the 2 games Ebron missed combined for 81 targets last season. I consider this to be his floor in 2016. I think he will pick up a lot of the slot looks Calvin was getting last season as well. So I see Ebron getting 80-100-120 targets this season.
I would expect Riddick to continue to see a lot of targets, about the same target range as I have for Ebron, 80-100-120 targets.
Just using median range this works out to be
Tate 140 targets
Ebron 100 targets
Riddick 100 targets
Abdullah 40 targets
TJ Jones 30 targets
Other 30 targets
This is 440 targets so another 140 targets are left.
I see Marvin Jones as getting about the same targets as Ebron or RIddick in the offense and Tate leading the team. There is a chance that Jones could be pretty even with Tate at 140 targets each, but I would expect that to be more in Tates favor. For example Tate might have 150 or 160 targets this season, while Jones gets 80-100-120 targets.
I would expect Jones to be used as a deep threat more, so his yards per catch may be higher than the other players and there is good potential for him to score TDs as he has shown the ability to do before.
With a career 62.3% catch rate this would be 50-63-75 receptions.
If Jones had 140 targets this would be 87 receptions. I just don't expect him to get that much volume with all of the other players established in the offense.
Jones is fairly priced at his current ADP based on the median range projection of 63 receptions, I just don't really see the upside that others are talking about.
Some expect Jones to get more targets than Tate and I just don't understand why.
I can completely understand people expecting Jones targets to increase because the Lions throw more than the Bengals do. That is true, they do. A difference between 100 passing attempts at a 20% share should pretty easily put Jones in the 120 target area. However the Lions might not throw the ball quite as frequently as they have been if the 9 games with JBC last year remains the plan, there is room for the Lions to run more than 386 times as well. This will depend a lot on Abdullah, but I would expect some improvement from him and more volume. So perhaps the passing attempts wont be quite as high as people think.
It seems like everyone keeps telling me to stop sleeping on this guy. I think those folks are sleeping on Ebron and Tate.
That is what is fun about this game.
It is my understanding that JBC simplified some of the plays so that the team could execute them better. They did win 6 of these games, all after the bye week adjustments.
329 pass attempts 36.6pa/gm (43pa/gm before JBC) 586 pass attempts for 16 games.
216 rushing attempts 24ra/gm (19.7/gm before JBC) 384 rushing attempts for 16 games.
The Lions ran the ball about four more times per game after JBC took over and passed the ball 6 times less per game.
Here is how often the players were targeted under JBC
C.Johnson 81 targets 9/game 24.6%
G.Tate 67 targets 7.4/game 20.3%
T.Riddick 53 targes 5.9/game 16.1%
E.Ebron 42 targets 4.7/game 12.8%
J.Bell 20 targets 2.2/game 6%
A.Abdullah 17 targets 1.9/game 5%
TJ Jones 15 targets 1.7/game 4.5%
B.Pettigrew 15 targets 1.7/game 4.5%
L.Moore 14 targets 1.6/game 4%
It is any ones guess as far as how Calvin Johnson's targets will be divided.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeClayNFL
Mike Clay–Verified account @MikeClayNFL
Calvin Johnson lined up in the slot on 20% of his snaps last season. 22% of his targets from the slot. #Lions
8:21 AM - 20 Aug 2014
I haven't seen the numbers for 2015 but I do know Calvin Johnson has been being used in the slot more in recent seasons, including last season, than he had been in the past, and in my opinion, more than he should have been. He took a lot of hits running routes over the middle that he wouldn't have if they kept him outside.
If we consider there will be sacks and some throw away targets, as well as JBC running the ball a bit more 586 passing attempts seems reasonable and would fit with the Lions running a similar number of total plays as last season of 1030.
I think it takes some time for a free agent WR to build timing with their new QB and offense. It is hard to expect a free agent to come in and be the primary target right away.
Golden Tate was the leading WR for the Lions in 2014, his first season with the team, however Calvin Johnson was injured and only played in 13 games.
Tate is a very good WR. He has led the Lions in receptions the last two seasons (yes even with Calvin fully healthy).
Based on Tates recent utilization with the team I expect that to continue and perhaps Tate even has his role expanded a bit more. He should maintain that 20% market share of the targets or see a few percentage points more now that Calvin is gone.
Eric Ebron is entering his 3rd season now, when TE usually break out (if they do) He and Tim Wright who played in the 2 games Ebron missed combined for 81 targets last season. I consider this to be his floor in 2016. I think he will pick up a lot of the slot looks Calvin was getting last season as well. So I see Ebron getting 80-100-120 targets this season.
I would expect Riddick to continue to see a lot of targets, about the same target range as I have for Ebron, 80-100-120 targets.
Just using median range this works out to be
Tate 140 targets
Ebron 100 targets
Riddick 100 targets
Abdullah 40 targets
TJ Jones 30 targets
Other 30 targets
This is 440 targets so another 140 targets are left.
I see Marvin Jones as getting about the same targets as Ebron or RIddick in the offense and Tate leading the team. There is a chance that Jones could be pretty even with Tate at 140 targets each, but I would expect that to be more in Tates favor. For example Tate might have 150 or 160 targets this season, while Jones gets 80-100-120 targets.
I would expect Jones to be used as a deep threat more, so his yards per catch may be higher than the other players and there is good potential for him to score TDs as he has shown the ability to do before.
With a career 62.3% catch rate this would be 50-63-75 receptions.
If Jones had 140 targets this would be 87 receptions. I just don't expect him to get that much volume with all of the other players established in the offense.
Jones is fairly priced at his current ADP based on the median range projection of 63 receptions, I just don't really see the upside that others are talking about.
Some expect Jones to get more targets than Tate and I just don't understand why.
I can completely understand people expecting Jones targets to increase because the Lions throw more than the Bengals do. That is true, they do. A difference between 100 passing attempts at a 20% share should pretty easily put Jones in the 120 target area. However the Lions might not throw the ball quite as frequently as they have been if the 9 games with JBC last year remains the plan, there is room for the Lions to run more than 386 times as well. This will depend a lot on Abdullah, but I would expect some improvement from him and more volume. So perhaps the passing attempts wont be quite as high as people think.
It seems like everyone keeps telling me to stop sleeping on this guy. I think those folks are sleeping on Ebron and Tate.
That is what is fun about this game.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I'm staying away from the Detroit passing offense this year. You don't just lose one of the greatest WRs of all time and pick up right where you left off.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
@Biabreakable made some really good points. I certainly wasn't trying to convince any one that they should be taking Jones in the 4th round or anything. But with everyone promoting going WR heavy in the early rounds this year, I anticipate I won't be able to pass up the RB's available in rounds 2-4 so I may be drafting my WR2 in rounds 5-6. If that is the case then Jones is a guy I am likely to target. Looks to have a solid floor with TD potential every week. Also has a high ceiling if he ends up clicking with Stafford. He is in a group with John Brown, Allen Hurns and Eric Decker of solid 1B type guys for their teams that could significantly outproduce their ADP. All 4 have adp's of around rounds 5-6.
freeannyong
Footballguy
Based on Twitter this morning you can kiss the value of getting him in the 7th goodbye
coyote5
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
freeannyong
Footballguy
The link above has been making its rounds and Mike Clay was talking about him which is pretty likely to lead to a bump in ADP
I feel obligated to point out that this quote from the article is nonsense. Tate is actually faster than Jones (although both are plenty fast). He simply wasn't asked to run deep routes when Calvin was healthy. Personally, I still think Tate has slightly better odds to produce the best numbers on this team, but I'll draft whichever one of them is cheaper. So far I've been landing Jones frequently, so I enjoyed this silly article.
Futz
Footballguy
The statements will bump up Marvin's ADP but I still think Tate will be the receiver to own. Tate just has concentration issues when he's not motivated. I bet that can explain some preseason drops at this point.. When the lights come on, he'll be fine unless they start 1-7 again.
I'm happy as a fan to see Marvin meshing though. He was the only FA WR in this crop I thought could soften the sting of Calvin's departure.
I'm happy as a fan to see Marvin meshing though. He was the only FA WR in this crop I thought could soften the sting of Calvin's departure.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Jones looked really good, and made some really great catches on the first drive.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
REDRAFT ONLY FOR ME
-10 targets, 4 receptions for 85 yds, he seems like the deeper route guy for now, surprised he reduced Tate to more stick routes and short stuff. Only 4 catches though on 10 targets, Stafford will want to get a slighly higher conversion rate whereas Tate caught all 7 of his targets but significant less yds.
I'm on the fence here, would like to see another game before I jump to conclusions but Boldin is clearly a distant 3rd, just seems like Jones is going deeper initially.
Anyone got a read on this? Suprised more owners are not talking about the Tate/Jones situation and pretty potent Detroit offense.
-10 targets, 4 receptions for 85 yds, he seems like the deeper route guy for now, surprised he reduced Tate to more stick routes and short stuff. Only 4 catches though on 10 targets, Stafford will want to get a slighly higher conversion rate whereas Tate caught all 7 of his targets but significant less yds.
I'm on the fence here, would like to see another game before I jump to conclusions but Boldin is clearly a distant 3rd, just seems like Jones is going deeper initially.
Anyone got a read on this? Suprised more owners are not talking about the Tate/Jones situation and pretty potent Detroit offense.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
It's one game and said game was a shootout/highest scoring game the week so I won't pretend I have a real read on the situation however..
If there are owners out there who don't yet realize he had a 27% share of Stafford's targets and are only looking at the 4/85/0 stat line, I'd be looking to buy from them. His average depth of target was 12.6 and he was the only WR on the team to eclipse 10. He may a) be the most targeted WR on the team moving forward and b) the value of his targets may be the highest on the team.
Also, for reference, Tate's ADOT was 1.3 yards, Bolden 2 and Ebron 6.8. As an aside, I also like Ebron moving forward.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
How is Tennessee pass D? I suspect many who drafted Marvin Jones will be making a decision between he and other WRs each week.
ponchsox
Footballguy
Marvin Jones is the type of wideout that if you play him you have to start him every week because the game you sit him he'll go for 150/2.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
on pace for 160 targets
heck yes, that's all you can ask for is targets
buy buy buy
heck yes, that's all you can ask for is targets
buy buy buy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Excellent
So Tate is getting a lot of screens but they call them something else to the WR. I like Ebron, both he and Tate were perfect on their targets, that won't sustain of course but I think it means Stafford knows he has them waiting underneath anytime he wants to dial them up.
I was taken aback by Stafford. His leadership in the 4th was the best I've ever seen from him. I find it odd that Caldwell is still there. He had to have the female owner come in last year and put out a few fires. It feels like he has handed the keys to Stafford and so far the results are great.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
bookmark
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Would like to see the Lions play a competent defense before I get too excited. Indy looked woeful and they're riddled with injuries.
need2know
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
TEN at home this week won't clear much up for you either, @GB(Jax no problem throwing), @CHI(Brock managed to find holes), PHI(Played the Browns), LAR( Lost 28-0, WAS(Got lit up like a X-Mas tree)
They play Minnesota weeks 9 and 11 or Game 9 and Game 11, you let us know how they do when they face a real defense but until then I'm gonna just let it roll because I backed into one of the softest schedules of any of the better QBs. I don't consider GB to be a juggernaut on defense.
They will likely have a tougher time with their division opponent but Week 16, most FF Bowls, they play @Dallas which looks favorable.
Bombs Away!
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Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
This is a Stafford stat but I think it hints at what is hopefully the new norm for the Lions and by association Marvin. From @evansilva Twitter feed as far as link..
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Seriously. I feel like I got lucky on this one. He was so much cheaper than Tate that I ended up snagging him in most of my leagues. He's got top 12 potential if he can start finding the end zone.
