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2 minutes ago, massraider said:

Less productive on targets than Watson?  Sure, I can see that.  Or maybe he won't get the TDs.  

As far as Saints paying him for nothing, you answered the question.  Saints front office is terrible, from a cap management standpoint, I believe they are worst in the league.  Saints throwing money at him doesn't sway my opinion one way or another.  Fleener isn't a better player because he drives a nicer car.  

I think that he'll get his targets, sure.  Then I think the Saints will realize that they are getting more production from targets that go to players who can actually move with the ball in their hands, and his prduction will be spotty.  

I don't mean to cop out, I think he'll be a lower tier #1 TE, so somewhere below the top 5.  I don't think he has TE2 upside, any more than Ladarius Green has TE2 upside.  

Like I said tho, if he's going TE7, I can't really get pissy about that.   

Sure, they are terrible but they let Watson walk and signed Fleener. Who else is going to soak up those TE targets? You really think they are just going to feed Cooks and Snead more? I'm of the opinion that Mike Thomas isn't actually very good. Cooks is a limited WR (check out his mention in reception perception from last year). Who is actually going to provide more production per target than Fleener? Nobody on that team is a standout player. Fleener is actually faster than Snead who is half a foot shorter and 50 lbs lighter.

I'm not saying money makes him a better player, but you can't deny there is a strong correlation between contract and usage.

I like Green as a player more than Fleener, but he's got no shot at TE2 because of our recurring topic of... targets. While I think Fleener is a lock for 110-130 targets, I think Green is a lock for 80-110. Even an average talent can reach TE2 fantasy status with 130 targets from Drew Brees. If healthy, I like Eifert as the TE2 since I don't think Olsen will get the targets and I think there are a bevy of scenarios where Reed doesn't pan out. But all I'm saying is that TE2 is wide open to the extent that an average TE could occupy that slot should he get enough volume.

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I got interested in the whole "targets" part of this.  With 110+ being the benchmark, as that's what Watson got in this New Orleans offense last year. 2015 - 7 TEs had 110+ targets, they finished

I open this thread to make me feel smart, because I also still open the Ajayi thread to feel sad.

IMO, Allen fits the Colts better and Fleener fits the Saints better.  WIn/win for everyone, all the way around.

15 minutes ago, matttyl said:

So the shark move would have been to get him last year (or this offseason prior to signing with the Saints), then (in dynasty I mean).  Some did that.  Buying him now, at his current price, as you've pointed out, isn't quite as nice.  I was able to get him last year for a a 2nd round rookie pick, which ended up being the #17, which the guy used to draft Kenyan Drake.

Don't confuse luck with skill. There was nothing sharky about targeting Fleener in the offseason. He was a first round pick that could never rise above his fourth round counterpart (I think he actually played fewer snaps/game than Allen in 2014). He just happened to go to the 1st or 2nd (arguable point) best situation for a TE. Had he signed in Baltimore or re-signed with Allen in Indy, it wouldn't look nearly as sharky.

Getting Fleener for a 2nd round rookie pick was a good trade, so I'm not knocking that trade. Just saying that making a mediocre TE an offseason target is not a shark move in general. Anytime you can find someone who overvalues rookie picks, it's always a shark move to take advantage of that. But nobody knew Fleener would sign in NO. Some people rolled the dice and it paid off, but rolling the dice is different than a shark move.

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22 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Don't confuse luck with skill. There was nothing sharky about targeting Fleener in the offseason. He was a first round pick that could never rise above his fourth round counterpart (I think he actually played fewer snaps/game than Allen in 2014). He just happened to go to the 1st or 2nd (arguable point) best situation for a TE. Had he signed in Baltimore or re-signed with Allen in Indy, it wouldn't look nearly as sharky.

Getting Fleener for a 2nd round rookie pick was a good trade, so I'm not knocking that trade. Just saying that making a mediocre TE an offseason target is not a shark move in general. Anytime you can find someone who overvalues rookie picks, it's always a shark move to take advantage of that. But nobody knew Fleener would sign in NO. Some people rolled the dice and it paid off, but rolling the dice is different than a shark move.

totally agree

sharks cant even roll dice, they have no fingers

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

Sure, they are terrible but they let Watson walk and signed Fleener. Who else is going to soak up those TE targets? You really think they are just going to feed Cooks and Snead more? I'm of the opinion that Mike Thomas isn't actually very good. 

And it remains to be seen if it was a mistake to go with Fleener instead of Watson, like all their other big money moves (Graham,  Byrd, Galette).

There's a little bit of inconsistency in dismissing Mike Thomas,  whom they invested a 2nd round pick in, for targets.  You, in discussing Tavon Austin, expect Pharoh Cooper and Mike Thomas SMU to cut into his targets. 

It's worth mentioning that NO Mike Thomas has been getting the same glowing reports from mini camp as Fleener. 

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9 minutes ago, massraider said:

And it remains to be seen if it was a mistake to go with Fleener instead of Watson, like all their other big money moves (Graham,  Byrd, Galette).

There's a little bit of inconsistency in dismissing Mike Thomas,  whom they invested a 2nd round pick in, for targets.  You, in discussing Tavon Austin, expect Pharoh Cooper and Mike Thomas SMU to cut into his targets. 

It's worth mentioning that NO Mike Thomas has been getting the same glowing reports from mini camp as Fleener. 

Oh, I definitely think it was a mistake to pay Fleener that much money. I would've much rather had Ladarius Green for half the price if I was an NFL GM. Or Dwayne Allen for whatever he signed for. Hell, you could have them both for probably much less than they paid Fleener. I think Fleener and Ertz were both overpaid for what they've shown on the field.

I'm curious who you've got me mixed up with the Tavon thread. I haven't posted anything regarding him in recent memory. But yes, the Saints invested a second in Thomas, but that doesn't mean he'll be more productive than Fleener. You said the Saints are going to find that they are getting more production out of other targets than Fleener. I'm sure they'll give Thomas some targets since they invested in him. I wasn't disputing that. I was disputing that Thomas will be more productive than Fleener. Purely as a receiving TE, I think Fleener is above average (if you take blocking into account that hurts him). That alone is better than what I expect out of Mike Thomas.

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6 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Oh, I definitely think it was a mistake to pay Fleener that much money. I would've much rather had Ladarius Green for half the price if I was an NFL GM. Or Dwayne Allen for whatever he signed for. Hell, you could have them both for probably much less than they paid Fleener. I think Fleener and Ertz were both overpaid for what they've shown on the field.

I'm curious who you've got me mixed up with the Tavon thread. I haven't posted anything regarding him in recent memory. But yes, the Saints invested a second in Thomas, but that doesn't mean he'll be more productive than Fleener. You said the Saints are going to find that they are getting more production out of other targets than Fleener. I'm sure they'll give Thomas some targets since they invested in him. I wasn't disputing that. I was disputing that Thomas will be more productive than Fleener. Purely as a receiving TE, I think Fleener is above average (if you take blocking into account that hurts him). That alone is better than what I expect out of Mike Thomas.

Jeebus, I confused you with BoltBacker. Ha. A thousand apologies. 

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I got interested in the whole "targets" part of this.  With 110+ being the benchmark, as that's what Watson got in this New Orleans offense last year.

2015 - 7 TEs had 110+ targets, they finished (top to bottom, in my mostly standard non PPR league) #1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 9 for TEs.

2014 - 4 TEs had 110+ targets, they finished #1, 2, 4, and 5

2013 - 6 TEs had 110+ targets, they finished #1, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 9

2012 - 3 TEs had 110+ targets, they finished #1, 2 and 4 (Gronk hurt that year, didn't have 110 targets but had 11 TDs, crazy)

2011 - 5 TEs had 110+ targets, they finished #1-5 in order

2010 - 1 TE had 110+ targets, he finished #1

So, in total, in the last 6 seasons there have been 26 TE player seasons with 110 or more targets, and 21 of those (80%) resulted in a top 5 TE season.  100% of the time it results in a top 10 finish.  Just saying that if Fleener does in fact get 110 or more targets (and he's getting paid to) and doesn't finish as a top 9 TE, he'd be the first one in at least 7 years. 

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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

He was a first round pick that could never rise above his fourth round counterpart (I think he actually played fewer snaps/game than Allen in 2014).

Not that it matters much, but Fleener was a second round pick and Allen was taken in the third (in the same draft). Also the Colts base offense was a two TE set for most of the time they were there and Allen was the better blocker so he'd play more on running downs or 1TE sets, thus the higher snap count.

Fleener has had his mental lapses, but he's fairly athletic and has good downfield speed for his size. TEs develop slower than almost every other position so he can still show improvement and has obviously landed in the ideal situation.

I'm not sure what there isn't to like about him (I know you haven't been arguing otherwise, so that was a general statement not directed at you). To just say "he isn't good" ignores the fact that he has shown enough so far in his first four seasons to see some upside - especially when heading into the most TE friendly system in the league with a QB that has always fed his TEs. I see TE2 as a very realistic ceiling this year and as you said TE7 his likely floor.

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I see TE2 as a very realistic ceiling this year and as you said TE7 his likely floor.

Gronk, Reed, Olsen, Gates, Kelce, Eifert

I think TE7 is an optimistic ceiling if all the guys I listed are healthy.  Even with the expectation of Eifert missing 2 games, I'd rather have him than Fleener.

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2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Oh, I definitely think it was a mistake to pay Fleener that much money. I would've much rather had Ladarius Green for half the price if I was an NFL GM. Or Dwayne Allen for whatever he signed for. Hell, you could have them both for probably much less than they paid Fleener. I think Fleener and Ertz were both overpaid for what they've shown on the field.

I'm curious who you've got me mixed up with the Tavon thread. I haven't posted anything regarding him in recent memory. But yes, the Saints invested a second in Thomas, but that doesn't mean he'll be more productive than Fleener. You said the Saints are going to find that they are getting more production out of other targets than Fleener. I'm sure they'll give Thomas some targets since they invested in him. I wasn't disputing that. I was disputing that Thomas will be more productive than Fleener. Purely as a receiving TE, I think Fleener is above average (if you take blocking into account that hurts him). That alone is better than what I expect out of Mike Thomas.

Green did get only $20 mil / 4 years (5 per) compared to Fleener's $36 mil / 5 years, but Allen got about $30 mil / 4 years -- more than Fleener on a per year basis. If Fleener is getting overpaid, the Allen is getting massively overpaid.

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1 hour ago, Pwingles said:

until I see Walkers targets decrease IRL, i dont see how we can leave him off the above lists

I can't argue with this logic, either.

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1 hour ago, Pwingles said:

until I see Walkers targets decrease IRL, i dont see how we can leave him off the above lists

Targets have gone from 86 to 106 to 133. He will be 32 and I expect a TEN WR to step up and lead the teams in targets. Plus smash mouth football is coming, so I expect a heavy dosage of Murray and Henry

the only two TE's I'm comfortable projected 8 targets a game are Gronk and Reed. There was a nice post with targets up thread using the 110 target threshold, which is pretty much 7 per game. TEN and CLE have too many unknowns for me to be comfortable projecting Walker or Barnridge that high in 2016 (but are good value plays if you wait on TEs, more so than Ertz or Green, imho)

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2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Gronk, Reed, Olsen, Gates, Kelce, Eifert

I think TE7 is an optimistic ceiling if all the guys I listed are healthy.  Even with the expectation of Eifert missing 2 games, I'd rather have him than Fleener.

You only named six guys. And I'm of the opinion that group isn't as rock solid as you seem to think:

I don't see Gates holding up or even being that valuable if he does hold up. Tony G was in great shape at this age, but Gates just looks slow and chubby - probably why he was juicing last year.

Reed could get injured any minute now and also has three TEs that are more athletic than him sitting behind him on the depth chart. I won't be chasing TDs with this guy.

Olsen I like, but not sure his 14.3 ypr wasn't a fluke. Should still be a lock for top 5.

Kelce just doesn't get enough targets and nothing has changed about his situation. He's being drafted at his ceiling.

Eifert I really like, but he was also not getting enough targets last year (I expect that to change this year, though) and the injury could hurt his early production. Keep in mind Hue Jackson is gone so this offense could stumble.

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56 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

You only named six guys.

That's how counting works. I listed six guys I like better, thus making Flener TE7. 

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14 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Gronk, Reed, Olsen, Gates, Kelce, Eifert

I think TE7 is an optimistic ceiling if all the guys I listed are healthy.  Even with the expectation of Eifert missing 2 games, I'd rather have him than Fleener.

Perhaps we're defining "ceiling" differently. I didn't say I'd rank him second or even expect him to finish there. Those guys all have their risks and/or limited upsides outside of Gronk.

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12 hours ago, tangfoot said:

That's how counting works. I listed six guys I like better, thus making Flener TE7. 

Um, not really. You said TE7 was optimistic. What you said made it seem realistic. If you name 7+ guys with better odds than him then things start to look more bleak for him, but if you can't even name 7 then TE7 starts to look pretty safe.

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

Um, not really. You said TE7 was optimistic. What you said made it seem realistic. If you name 7+ guys with better odds than him then things start to look more bleak for him, but if you can't even name 7 then TE7 starts to look pretty safe.

Doc Ock said TE7 is his floor, and I said it is his ceiling. And yes, an optimistic ceiling -- there's six guys who are pretty clearly ahead of him this season. I put Fleener squarely in the Walker/Allen/Julius Thomas tier that could be anything from TE7 (ceiling) to about TE14 (floor).

What part of my argument are you not understanding?

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15 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Doc Ock said TE7 is his floor, and I said it is his ceiling. And yes, an optimistic ceiling -- there's six guys who are pretty clearly ahead of him this season. I put Fleener squarely in the Walker/Allen/Julius Thomas tier that could be anything from TE7 (ceiling) to about TE14 (floor).

What part of my argument are you not understanding?

Oh, I fully understand your argument. I'm just saying it is a POS argument. If you want to say TE7 is optimistic, you have to list at least 7 guys likely to outproduce him. You couldn't even do that. Additionally, as I pointed out player-by-player, those guys are not at all locks to outproduce Fleener. I mean, Kelce didn't even outscore Ben Watson last year and his situation is exactly the same. How is he some sort of lock to outproduce Fleener?!

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15 hours ago, DexterDew said:

Targets have gone from 86 to 106 to 133. He will be 32 and I expect a TEN WR to step up and lead the teams in targets. Plus smash mouth football is coming, so I expect a heavy dosage of Murray and Henry

the only two TE's I'm comfortable projected 8 targets a game are Gronk and Reed. There was a nice post with targets up thread using the 110 target threshold, which is pretty much 7 per game. TEN and CLE have too many unknowns for me to be comfortable projecting Walker or Barnridge that high in 2016 (but are good value plays if you wait on TEs, more so than Ertz or Green, imho)

i wouldnt be shocked at all if they decreased a reasonable amount, although idk if itll end up being drastic

Tenn wr situation is a dumpster fire, Murray sucks, and hopefully we see a little bit better from henry than that lol video from him in OTAs

Until i see him lose the huge amount of targets he had the last couple years, im going to proceed with him like normal. I just dont see a team that bad, not having to chuck it 60% of the time. Gonna be a lot of garbage time to go around

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11 hours ago, BigTex said:

So, a WR for TEN will take targets from Walker but Doctson won't take targets from Reed?

Tex

Docston is a rookie.  K Wright missed nearly half the season, as did Justin Hunter, Matthews missed 6 games, Harry Douglas in a new veteran for them, DGB was a rookie who should take a step forward, and they used a 2nd round pick on a pounding RB and look to want to be more balanced.  Walker over doubled the next closest guy in targets.  Apples and oranges there.

Docton should be taking targets from Crowder (as the third WR), and maybe even Garcon or D Jax as he should be matched up vs lesser DBs.

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23 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Docston is a rookie.  K Wright missed nearly half the season, as did Justin Hunter, Matthews missed 6 games, Harry Douglas in a new veteran for them, DGB was a rookie who should take a step forward, and they used a 2nd round pick on a pounding RB and look to want to be more balanced.  Walker over doubled the next closest guy in targets.  Apples and oranges there.

Docton should be taking targets from Crowder (as the third WR), and maybe even Garcon or D Jax as he should be matched up vs lesser DBs.

Doctson is considered to have a prototypical "red zone" body, so he will eventually take targets from Reed. I just don't expect it to happen right away.  The most likely scenario is that Reed misses 2-3 games due to an injury and that's when Doctson and Cousins begin to develop their timing together.

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Just now, tangfoot said:

Doctson is considered to have a prototypical "red zone" body, so he will eventually take targets from Reed. I just don't expect it to happen right away.  The most likely scenario is that Reed misses 2-3 games due to an injury and that's when Doctson and Cousins begin to develop their timing together.

Well, Michael Thomas is an inch taller and 10 pounds bigger.  He'll likely do the same to Fleener.  That said, Reed still had 114 targets in only 14 games (works out to 130 in a full season).  From my post above, I'd be very happy with just about any TE getting 110+ targets over 16 games.

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I can't argue with those points, thanks for answering. Being Doctson is a little older than your average rook I wouldn't dismiss him as a non-factor on this offense this season.

MHO,

 

Tex

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On 6/21/2016 at 10:41 AM, matttyl said:

So the shark move would have been to get him last year (or this offseason prior to signing with the Saints), then (in dynasty I mean).  Some did that.  Buying him now, at his current price, as you've pointed out, isn't quite as nice.  I was able to get him last year for a a 2nd round rookie pick, which ended up being the #17, which the guy used to draft Kenyan Drake.

I drafted him when I saw that he went to the team where his college QB was just drafted 1st overall and I sat on him. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Sawa  blurb about Fleener on roto....

The New Orleans Advocate expects Willie Snead and Coby Fleener to vie for the Saints' No. 2 pass-catching role.

So wanted to see how many catches the #2 receiver in NO typically gets.  Receptions - 74, 63, 77, 83, 86, 66.  Not bad. 

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On 6/22/2016 at 9:46 AM, matttyl said:

Docston is a rookie.  K Wright missed nearly half the season, as did Justin Hunter, Matthews missed 6 games, Harry Douglas in a new veteran for them, DGB was a rookie who should take a step forward, and they used a 2nd round pick on a pounding RB and look to want to be more balanced.  Walker over doubled the next closest guy in targets.  Apples and oranges there.

Docton should be taking targets from Crowder (as the third WR), and maybe even Garcon or D Jax as he should be matched up vs lesser DBs.

Doctson, at least starting out, is supposed to play outside behind Garcon and Jackson. He probably will play in the red zone though and take some targets from Reed there.

“The great thing about it is we got a bunch of great players, and he’ll start out as an outside receiver, where he’ll play behind both Pierre and DeSean, and we’ll be able to groom him,” McVay said Wednesday on ESPN980. “And however well he does, he’ll earn that playing time if his play dictates that. He’s a guy that we’re very excited about.” --http://www.redskins.com/news-and-events/article-1/Josh-Doctson-Matt-Jones-Will-Have-Large-Roles-In-2016/415c25d3-2cb2-41de-b0d0-3ae6e6368f3b

 

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4 hours ago, matttyl said:

Sawa  blurb about Fleener on roto....

The New Orleans Advocate expects Willie Snead and Coby Fleener to vie for the Saints' No. 2 pass-catching role.

So wanted to see how many catches the #2 receiver in NO typically gets.  Receptions - 74, 63, 77, 83, 86, 66.  Not bad. 

yep, could be this year's Jordan Reed, particularly if he is quiet in preseason...here's to hoping he doesn't catch a single preseason ball.

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17 hours ago, TripItUp said:

yep, could be this year's Jordan Reed, particularly if he is quiet in preseason...here's to hoping he doesn't catch a single preseason ball.

If he never plays a pre-season snap, I would still think of him as very high for the season. There is simply too much pointing to the likelihood that Brees is going to make him what he has made every TE in that system.  It may have been easy to say "well, Jimmy Graham is Jimmy Graham and Fleener isn't Graham" if that was all there was to it but the fact that it just happens that just last year Brees made 34 year old Ben Watson a top 6-7 PPR TE is strong indicator, to me, that Fleener will be a very strong play this year.   

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2 hours ago, Shutout said:

If he never plays a pre-season snap, I would still think of him as very high for the season.

you might, but the ff'ers tend to forget about players that don't have great preseasons...particularly those that go to new teams.  He'll definitely fly under the radar IMHO.

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  • 1 month later...

Fleener seems like he should be a no brainer top 5 te this season.  But this guy always seems to let down.  Prob let someone else get him at his adp

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On 7/14/2016 at 10:12 AM, Shutout said:

If he never plays a pre-season snap, I would still think of him as very high for the season. There is simply too much pointing to the likelihood that Brees is going to make him what he has made every TE in that system.  It may have been easy to say "well, Jimmy Graham is Jimmy Graham and Fleener isn't Graham" if that was all there was to it but the fact that it just happens that just last year Brees made 34 year old Ben Watson a top 6-7 PPR TE is strong indicator, to me, that Fleener will be a very strong play this year.   

As a Colts fan I distinctly remember his head not screwed on tight in 2014 because of all the drops, especially deep drops (5).  Last year he was better (3),  but he doesn't have the best hands it appears.  If the drops were screen passes it wouldn't have mattered as much, but he dropped several potential TDs on deep routes.   I wouldn't automatically see more success just because he plays in New Orleans. 

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4 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

As a Colts fan I distinctly remember his head not screwed on tight in 2014 because of all the drops, especially deep drops (5).  Last year he was better (3),  but he doesn't have the best hands it appears.  If the drops were screen passes it wouldn't have mattered as much, but he dropped several potential TDs on deep routes.   I wouldn't automatically see more success just because he plays in New Orleans. 

FWIW I actually just saw this AM in a Rich Hribar (Rotoworld) that Fleener still finished as the 6th tight end overall in 2014 and actually had the most weeks as top scoring TE of anyone that year as well.

I think his price is starting to creep up which worries me, I think his athletic profile/Brees means he's a good bet for a top 5 TE but that's about what he costs now too. 

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The New Orleans Times-Picayune's Larry Holder reports Coby Fleener "hasn't been reliable enough catching passes and isn't on the same page with Drew Brees."

 
Holder says it has "seemed" to him like Josh Hill's passing-game involvement has grown recently. Holder also suggested it's possible the Saints were trying to send a message to Fleener when they "accidentally" listed him low on the depth chart last week. We're not panicking yet, but it's something to keep an eye on. Not being on the same page with Brees is the biggest concern.
 
 
Aug 26 - 9:26 AM

 

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Coby Fleener caught 1-of-4 targets for four yards in the Saints' third preseason game.

 

Fleener's final stat line looks poor, but he had a 31-yard grab in heavy traffic negated by a holding call at the line of scrimmage, and made another tough catch only to be clotheslined by a Steelers defender, causing a breakup. The Steeler should have been flagged on the play. Fleener was the Saints' clear-cut first-team tight end. Despite some negative camp reports, Fleener remains a candidate for top-five fantasy stats at the position.
 
 
 
Aug 27 - 12:04 AM

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
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Coby Fleener "recently admitted" he is still adjusting to the Saints' playbook.

 

Fleener seems to be picking things up very slowly in New Orleans. Coach Sean Payton admitted last month that he was still a "work in progress" while beat writer Larry Holder said Fleener and Drew Brees were still fighting to get on the same page in practices last week. Fleener had a quiet preseason, catching 4-of-6 targets for 27 yards on 63 snaps. Things could start slowly for Fleener, but he's locked in as the starter and gets a cake matchup with the Raiders Week 1.
 
 
Source: ESPN.com 
Sep 4 - 12:46 PM

 

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On 8/26/2016 at 10:22 PM, Willie Neslon said:

He can't catch the ball. Splitting time at best right now with Hill. I've seen drafts where he goes ahead of Kelce. Way overvalued.

I think Fleener will get the snaps for sure, the bigger problem is getting Brees' trust. Get that and he's gold.

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On 9/4/2016 at 1:03 PM, Faust said:
Quote

Coby Fleener "recently admitted" he is still adjusting to the Saints' playbook.

 

Fleener seems to be picking things up very slowly in New Orleans. Coach Sean Payton admitted last month that he was still a "work in progress" while beat writer Larry Holder said Fleener and Drew Brees were still fighting to get on the same page in practices last week. Fleener had a quiet preseason, catching 4-of-6 targets for 27 yards on 63 snaps. Things could start slowly for Fleener, but he's locked in as the starter and gets a cake matchup with the Raiders Week 1.

Didn't this genius go to Stanford?

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