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Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

Uruk-Hai said:
Do you follow either of these guys? 

Winchester

ShenCo

Both pages are run by amateurs, but they understand how weather works in the Valley much better than, say, the DC weather folks.
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I always say these types of pages are highly underrated.  Even if run by non mets.  Reason being is, the more localized you're worrying about, the easier it is to forecast.  A lot of good amateur mets out there with FB pages.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
I always say these types of pages are highly underrated.  Even if run by non mets.  Reason being is, the more localized you're worrying about, the easier it is to forecast.  A lot of good amateur mets out there with FB pages.  
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With the mountains, passes, and valleys here, trying to blanket-predict stuff here is really hard (especially thunderstorms or precip when elevation matters). They do a good job of translating to local conditions.

 
78 today in Charleston.  Just saw an early forecast for a possible light dusting along the coast midweek next week.  Let the panic begin.

 
Take away the lake effect snow and the new Euro doesn't have any places getting over 5 inches until you get deep into NE.

 
Where I used to laugh at TWC's forecasts, they've actually been getting much more accurate of late.  Not saying they are perfect, but I like to monitor what they have, as well.  I guess they use some kind of blended model run that's proprietary.  Not much info about it, but that makes sense since it's proprietary.  

That said, while most models are scaling back totals, they hold serve over night with their call.  But this is where it can get tricky and why I hate trying to be exact.  TWC has been sitting at 3-5 inches for 48 hours.  Most models have gone from around 7 inches to down to 2 inches and in between, run to run.  So while it looks like a lot of movement in one and nothing in another, they pretty much are still calling for the same thing.

At this point, it doesn't look like there's going to be a ton of moisture for us.  If that's the case, I'm thinking high end would be around 4 inches.  Realistically, probably get 3, but since we'll get sleet and drizzle at the end, if you were to measure at the end, it might be around an inch.  N PA will probably do better, but not much.  Like in the 4 to 6 range.

 
NAM just ran and pretty much dashed all the snow lovers hopes.  

At this point, the high end might be a dusting.  :(

Even N PA is looking at 1-3.  

Looks to be another non-event.  Looking into the slight future, February looks to be cold.  So the back end of the snow window still has a couple of chances to get a storm or two in.  But unless they are big, this will be a below average snowfall year.

 
TheIronSheik said:
NAM just ran and pretty much dashed all the snow lovers hopes.  

At this point, the high end might be a dusting.  :(

Even N PA is looking at 1-3.  

Looks to be another non-event.  Looking into the slight future, February looks to be cold.  So the back end of the snow window still has a couple of chances to get a storm or two in.  But unless they are big, this will be a below average snowfall year.
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Euro still want to put around 3 inches down for me.  Honestly, both seem a little off.  I think it's going to be a good 1 to 2 inches after all is said and done.  Might be snow, then a lull, then sleet to drizzle.  Kind of a two part storm.  

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Sounds like sloppy but not overly treacherous road conditions this weekend then?
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At this point, yes.  Might be some issues early because it'll be cold and it'll start as snow.  So it could be slippery for the beginning of this storm until crews get out and clear roads.  But as it changes to sleet and then drizzle, it should be OK.  

The only thing to keep in mind is that there is a chance that some spots see freezing rain for a short period mixed in with that sleet and drizzle.  So if you're out and about during the sleet portion of the storm, be mindful that you might be driving in freezing rain at any moment.  

 
In the past 3 years, I can pretty much only remember two times when the models were all in agreement for a storm 2 days out.  Both times, all of the models blew it.  

So going with that theme, the American model just came back with a completely different solution than everyone else.  Seems odd.  It's much colder, which would mean more snow south.  And as much as I want that one to be correct, I'm gonna need to see more data before I even consider it as a possibility.  But I'll keep my fingers crossed while I'm doing my research. :lol:

 
TheIronSheik said:
NAM just ran and pretty much dashed all the snow lovers hopes.  

At this point, the high end might be a dusting.  :(

Even N PA is looking at 1-3.  

Looks to be another non-event.  Looking into the slight future, February looks to be cold.  So the back end of the snow window still has a couple of chances to get a storm or two in.  But unless they are big, this will be a below average snowfall year.
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My company meteorologist (yes, utilities have weather people, for obvious reasons), put out a forecast today calling for 3-4 inches falling between 2 and 6 pm on Saturday.

 
Have nearly zero winter driving experience, but going from Philly to Pitt Saturday or Sunday, just need to be there prior to kickoff.  Suggestions welcomed as I don't even know what sites to look at or when would be better to drive.

 
Bonfire said:
Have nearly zero winter driving experience, but going from Philly to Pitt Saturday or Sunday, just need to be there prior to kickoff.  Suggestions welcomed as I don't even know what sites to look at or when would be better to drive.
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Storm should be gone Sunday it looks like 

 
Yeah. And even if you go Saturday, it doesn’t look like a crazy storm so I would imagine the main highways and turnpike will be fairly normal. 

 
Bonfire said:
Have nearly zero winter driving experience, but going from Philly to Pitt Saturday or Sunday, just need to be there prior to kickoff.  Suggestions welcomed as I don't even know what sites to look at or when would be better to drive.
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You want to check the weather in Bedford and Somerset. Those mountain areas could be treacherous to drive through, even on the turnpike. 

 
One of the things with the NAM that's interesting is that with each run, instead of a straight line going east to west across PA, it looks more like the heart rate machine in a hospital.  Each run, there have been 2 or 3 low hanging areas to the south that get decent snow.  But it's changed each run on which areas.  My guess is that the changeover is going to make this storm get called a "bust" by a lot of people.  I think you might have areas that get 4 inches of snow while an area 5 miles away gets a coating.  And 5 more miles they get 2 inches.  Now, for N PA and spots north, not as big of a worry.  

But lots of places in PA are going to be boom and bust.  If you are S PA to middle of PA, be prepared for 1 to 6 inches.  Silly forecast, but luckily I'm not paid to make precise guesses.  I think you'll see a lot of places either call for 1-4 or 3-5 mainly because it almost covers all their bases while still sounding like a precise forecast.  But their just hedging their bets and hoping they covered the correct part of the roulette wheel.

 
TheIronSheik said:
My thoughts are, if it's going to be cold, you might as well snow.  Give me some days off from work.  Cold weather with no snow is just dumb. 
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I don't know about SE PA, but it's not been cold in NE Ohio. More of the same, please.

 
TheIronSheik said:
That's not going to last, though.  It's very rare to get a mild winter all the way through.  And right now, February looks like real winter.
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Me thinks once the temp's go down that snow will come with it. I have no delusions what we've experienced so far will sustain, but this 'winter' (so far) has been great.

 
TheIronSheik said:
American model gives snowlovers some last minute hope. :lol:
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So there seems to be some validity to this.  I'm thinking we can up totals by 2 inches now.  I still think for my area it's going to be just enough to be plowable.   Probably between 2 and 4 inches.  

All I need is 4 inches of snow for the corgis to have trouble walking in.  I remember when the oldest saw her first snow.  She went nuts. Ran around like a bucking bronco.    :lol:   I can't wait to see what he does.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
So there seems to be some validity to this.  I'm thinking we can up totals by 2 inches now.  I still think for my area it's going to be just enough to be plowable.   Probably between 2 and 4 inches.  

All I need is 4 inches of snow for the corgis to have trouble walking in.  I remember when the oldest saw her first snow.  She went nuts. Ran around like a bucking bronco.    :lol:   I can't wait to see what he does.  
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We are planning to drive from Philly area to Pittsburgh tomorrow to visit the in laws.  Do I have a legit excuse to postpone the trip to Presidents day weekend?

 
fred_1_15301 said:
We are planning to drive from Philly area to Pittsburgh tomorrow to visit the in laws.  Do I have a legit excuse to postpone the trip to Presidents day weekend?
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I would think so, but I don't drive in the snow.  So you might be better than me.

Also, why is everyone going from Philly to Pittsburgh tomorrow?  :confused:

 
TheIronSheik said:
Also, why is everyone going from Philly to Pittsburgh tomorrow?  :confused:
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Sheetz >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Wawa

:coffee:

 
Tom Servo said:
Sheetz >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Wawa

:coffee:
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Yea but Rutters now has alcoholic slushy machines so they top both.

 
Entering Week 4 of 10 for the Snow Window.  We got about 2 inches of snow on Saturday.  Not much sleet but ended with a lot more freezing rain than anticipated.  It was not enough snow for the pups to even notice.  He walked out and it didn't even faze him that the ground was a different color.  

Week 4 looks to be absent of snow, then we move into February.  And wouldn't you know it, the long range models, which have been about as good as a coin flip the past 2 years, are now thinking it could be a mild end of the season.  I hope these puppies get to see snow in their lifetime. 

 
We were up to 7" last night, forecasted another 3-5 over night and it's still coming down. They think it will taper as the day goes, but I'm guessing we'll at least be in double digits whenever they report next. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
Entering Week 4 of 10 for the Snow Window.  We got about 2 inches of snow on Saturday.  Not much sleet but ended with a lot more freezing rain than anticipated.  It was not enough snow for the pups to even notice.  He walked out and it didn't even faze him that the ground was a different color.  

Week 4 looks to be absent of snow, then we move into February.  And wouldn't you know it, the long range models, which have been about as good as a coin flip the past 2 years, are now thinking it could be a mild end of the season.  I hope these puppies get to see snow in their lifetime. 
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My boys still went sled riding in my backyard somehow. 

 
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