What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Snowmageddon 2022 (2 Viewers)

98% chance  no.  
Based on the map I saw this morning, can probably slide that up to 100. The reason they're waffling on our forecast is the ice/mix line is projected just south. One slight movement in the wrong direction today and a pummeling of snow may not happen. Regardless, the line is going north of 80-90% in PA. 

 
I can take or leave snow, but I do like to get some extended really cold weather.  Cuts down on bugs and garden pests the next summer.

Also, in my experience, cold weather tends to correlate well with sunshine, whereas this constant 30-40F bull#### seems to go along with clouds, rain, drizzle and mud.

 
Looks like some things are lining up for a cold start to March. I’m not getting a strong snow indication because the teleconnections that bring the moisture when it’s cold in this neck of the woods are still unfavorable. But as @TheIronSheik reminded us having the cold is kind of vital for it to snow so hopefully we can make something happen during that stretch. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Looks like some things are lining up for a cold start to March. I’m not getting a strong snow indication because the teleconnections that bring the moisture when it’s cold in this neck of the woods are still unfavorable. But as @TheIronSheik reminded us having the cold is kind of vital for it to snow so hopefully we can make something happen during that stretch. 
Yeah, it looks like that first week of March is our best chance.  Although if you have 10 chances and 9 are 0% and 1 is 2%, "best" doesn't really mean that much.  

I'm ready for spring at this point.  

 
Yesterday was the last day of the winter that saw a temperature of zero or below as a record low.

Next big milestone to spring is March 10.  That's the last day the normal high temperature is below 50 degrees.

 
Yesterday was the last day of the winter that saw a temperature of zero or below as a record low.

Next big milestone to spring is March 10.  That's the last day the normal high temperature is below 50 degrees.
I did miss two other "end of winter" milestones:

February 24th is the last day with a normal low temp below 30.

And March 7th is the last day of normal low temps below freezing.

 
Two weeks left in the snow window and pretty much no sign of snow.  We have some cold shots and we have some precipitation, but we don't have the happening at the same time.  

 
I came back up north in February of 2012.  There was pretty much no snow that year, either.  The numbers are skewed because there was a Halloween storm that year, but just coatings during the actual winter.  2012-13 was my first full winter and it was another year of nothing but dustings and coatings.  Those two years were fairly barren of snow.  People began to talk about GW and pointing out those two milder winters as evidence.  Then 2013-14 winter was the second snowiest winter on record.

So we put this year behind us and look forward to next year.  Hopefully in my puppies' third year on this planet they'll get to play in some deep snow.  

 
Two weeks left in the snow window and pretty much no sign of snow.  We have some cold shots and we have some precipitation, but we don't have the happening at the same time.  
This thing coming through later this week missing you? Wednesday night-Saturday sometime does not look like a fun time to be in NE Ohio.

 
This thing coming through later this week missing you? Wednesday night-Saturday sometime does not look like a fun time to be in NE Ohio.
Looks to be mostly rain for us.  Maybe even some storms.  A couple of the models have wanted to bring the snow down south as the storm exits.  And this was one of the signals I had mentioned.  But if I had to be money, I'd say rain for most of S PA. 

 
Looks to be mostly rain for us.  Maybe even some storms.  A couple of the models have wanted to bring the snow down south as the storm exits.  And this was one of the signals I had mentioned.  But if I had to be money, I'd say rain for most of S PA. 
Given what our locals have been saying I've been expected wild swings on the internet's and they have not disappointed. The temperatures dropping and wind howling was always an over night Wednesday thing but snow totals completely depend on whether our wind from that point-on is W or NW. I see W or NW as the wind direction over that 48-60 hour period, but while I'll pop on at one point in the day and see 4" over that span I'll check in later and see 9" then the next day back to 6". 

I get the internet's objective, but a :shrug: with a check back Tuesday note would be more effective.

 
Given what our locals have been saying I've been expected wild swings on the internet's and they have not disappointed. The temperatures dropping and wind howling was always an over night Wednesday thing but snow totals completely depend on whether our wind from that point-on is W or NW. I see W or NW as the wind direction over that 48-60 hour period, but while I'll pop on at one point in the day and see 4" over that span I'll check in later and see 9" then the next day back to 6". 

I get the internet's objective, but a :shrug: with a check back Tuesday note would be more effective.
This is why I was saying earlier that I think forecasting focuses too much on trying to be exactly right rather than explaining all of the possible outcomes.  Sure, a lot of people don't want that.  But that's the right way to forecast.  As soon as you start explaining, people will cut you off and go, "Just tell us how many inches!"  Most don't want to hear, "Check back Tuesday."  But you're right, that's the correct approach.

 
This thing coming through later this week missing you? Wednesday night-Saturday sometime does not look like a fun time to be in NE Ohio.
I'm in NE Indiana (Fort Wayne area) and currently predicted 2-3" overnight and up to another 3" tomorrow. Probably depends on how temperatures track vs the moisture. Current forecast shows hitting the freezing mark around midnight tonight and staying below freezing until Sunday.

 
I honestly haven't been paying too much attention to snow outside of my area this year, mainly because I'm bitter.  But I saw a tweet today that said Chicago was expecting 8 to 14 inches as of last night, just 24 hours before the storm.  And now they are predicting maybe a dusting.  Oof.  Been there before.  I forget what "Blizzard" it was a couple of years ago, but even as the snowflakes started to fall, mets were upping their predictions saying instead of a foot, it could end up being 18 inches.  We didn't even get a dusting that day.  SWIIIIIIIING and a miss.  :lol:

 
Seeing this thread reminds me how glad I am to be in a place that doesn't get snow. In fact, it's 84 and breezy today here(sorry, just rubbing it in a bit).

 
I'm in NE Indiana (Fort Wayne area) and currently predicted 2-3" overnight and up to another 3" tomorrow. Probably depends on how temperatures track vs the moisture. Current forecast shows hitting the freezing mark around midnight tonight and staying below freezing until Sunday.
I was only half paying attention to last night's telecast, but I think the word one of our forecaster's used was 'slingshot' to describe these systems. What's rolling in now is going to float backwards and connect with the colder air coming through your area then stall throughout Wednesday before eventually system 2 generates enough energy to push through. The question is where is that stall line settles. West of it is getting pummeled with snow, east of it with rain eventually turning to snow, and on it will just be a constantly changing mess until sometime over night Wednesday.

 
The final week of the snow window.  And as has long been talked about, the last storm signal of the window is for the end of this week.  Also talked about, it has always been considered a long shot for actual snow and would have to be a thread-the-needle type storm.  

So now that we're about 5 days away, what's it look like?  Nothing has changed.  Could we see some snow from this?  Sure... we could.  Will we?  Most likely not.  I won't say definitely because IF everything were to work out just perfect, there could be some snow.  Hence why it's called thread-the-needle.  But realistically, it's about a 95% chance of no snow.  Or at least accumulating snow.  I mean, we could see a burst of flurries but I wouldn't count that. 

Looking further into March, outside of the snow window, I don't see any indications of any chance of snow.  Winter is pretty much over once we exit the snow window.  Now, that doesn't mean warm and sunny days until October.  I still think we see average to maybe slightly below average temps a good part of this spring.  But slightly below means 57 degrees instead of 61.  I can deal with that.  

Bring on the spring storms!

 
The final week of the snow window.  And as has long been talked about, the last storm signal of the window is for the end of this week.  Also talked about, it has always been considered a long shot for actual snow and would have to be a thread-the-needle type storm.  

So now that we're about 5 days away, what's it look like?  Nothing has changed.  Could we see some snow from this?  Sure... we could.  Will we?  Most likely not.  I won't say definitely because IF everything were to work out just perfect, there could be some snow.  Hence why it's called thread-the-needle.  But realistically, it's about a 95% chance of no snow.  Or at least accumulating snow.  I mean, we could see a burst of flurries but I wouldn't count that. 

Looking further into March, outside of the snow window, I don't see any indications of any chance of snow.  Winter is pretty much over once we exit the snow window.  Now, that doesn't mean warm and sunny days until October.  I still think we see average to maybe slightly below average temps a good part of this spring.  But slightly below means 57 degrees instead of 61.  I can deal with that.  

Bring on the spring storms!
Agree with your assessment. March looks torchy out past 7 days. Let’s get that oak pollen out of the way early! 

 
It's sad when an inch of snow is getting people excited.  But if we get an inch of snow in Philly, that would be our biggest storm of the season.  

Right now, the European model is saying there's about a 40% chance of and inch of snow right now.  50% for my area.  So, in your face, Philly.

This would be for overnight Friday.

 
The GFS is convinced (with zero evidence) that next week the northeast will see a massive snowstorm.  The snow map is showing 21 inches for my area. :lol:

OK.  With temps in the 40's, I'm going to have to say I'm not 100% onboard with this soluition.

There's about a 1% chance of this happening.  I might be being a bit generous, but call me optimistic.  Not to say we can't get a big storm in March (see Blizzard of 1993), but nothing I can see right now is supporting this massive snowstorm.  

I'm not on Facebook right now, but I'm guessing this snow map is making its rounds as we speak.

 
The GFS is convinced (with zero evidence) that next week the northeast will see a massive snowstorm.  The snow map is showing 21 inches for my area. :lol:

OK.  With temps in the 40's, I'm going to have to say I'm not 100% onboard with this soluition.

There's about a 1% chance of this happening.  I might be being a bit generous, but call me optimistic.  Not to say we can't get a big storm in March (see Blizzard of 1993), but nothing I can see right now is supporting this massive snowstorm.  

I'm not on Facebook right now, but I'm guessing this snow map is making its rounds as we speak.
Oh come on!  My windows are open it’s so nice here!

 
The GFS is convinced (with zero evidence) that next week the northeast will see a massive snowstorm.  The snow map is showing 21 inches for my area. :lol:

OK.  With temps in the 40's, I'm going to have to say I'm not 100% onboard with this soluition.

There's about a 1% chance of this happening.  I might be being a bit generous, but call me optimistic.  Not to say we can't get a big storm in March (see Blizzard of 1993), but nothing I can see right now is supporting this massive snowstorm.  

I'm not on Facebook right now, but I'm guessing this snow map is making its rounds as we speak.
#FakeWeather

 
No.  The GFS is terrible for long range.  I mean, most are bad for that far out, but the GFS is King Terrible.  
It backed off slightly on the following run to less than an inch.  Now it's back up to 3 inches.  So somewhere between no snow and 52 inches is my current call.  

 
First snowstorm of the season with accumulations between 1-2 feet here in the Tri=State area. Easily surpassing last years total of about 5" for the whole winter.

Stay safe out there and of course stay hydrated . . .

:banned:

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top