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WR Michael Crabtree, Free Agent (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Easily offset by the net difference in state taxes. Something about moving to Florida spooked him. Most free agents given a choice jump at a chance to leave California for a tax free state like Texas or Florida. Whatever his reason for staying in the bay area, he finally came to the humbling conclusion that his value had bottomed out, almost unfairly considering his talent and statistics. Looks like he was forced to pay the ####### tax.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Maybe he is happy in the bay area and is fine with making $3M. Maybe he is pretty confident that he can reach the incentives and get that extra $2M. Maybe he likes his chances of getting lots of targets in Oakland since the WR corp is not that strong and will be able to prove that he is worth more in 2016. Cooper or White have not actually been drafted by the Raiders yet. Maybe he thinks Carr is going to be a good QB.
I am not a fan of Crabtree. He looked slow last year. For a one year contract worth $3M and $5M tops, it does not hurt to sign him and see what happens.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
70 receptions is less than 4.5 per game.
If you throw out his 2009 rookie and 2013 seasons, when he started 11 and five games, respectively, and sum his four other seasons, when he started 15, 14, 16 and 16 games (2010-2012 and 2014):
280 receptions in four seasons = 70 reception per season average. In two or half of these four seasons, he exceeded 70 receptions.
I wouldn't put that in the same "hard to reach" category as 100/1,400 or a Pro Bowl berth. Point taken on the latter two incentives.
If you throw out his 2009 rookie and 2013 seasons, when he started 11 and five games, respectively, and sum his four other seasons, when he started 15, 14, 16 and 16 games (2010-2012 and 2014):
280 receptions in four seasons = 70 reception per season average. In two or half of these four seasons, he exceeded 70 receptions.
I wouldn't put that in the same "hard to reach" category as 100/1,400 or a Pro Bowl berth. Point taken on the latter two incentives.
cstu
Footballguy
Considering how rare it is for a Raiders WR to hit either of those numbers I don't think they are too worried about it.
His total compensation is still less than James Jones.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I've heard this OAK historical-based stat projection heuristic before.
My question. If what previous OAK WRs did was in a context that involved in many/most cases a different owner, GM, HC, OC, other position coaches, QBs, RBs, OL, WRs, TEs, defense, etc., how relevant is that to Crabtree, on the 2015 iteration Raiders?
To me, that would be like comparing the post-expansion Browns to what their "predecessors" did, as if it was some kind of baseline constraint, when in actuality, the pre-expansion Browns refer to the team we now call the Ravens, and are simply just another team.
* Not directing this at more shallow and recent history under the purview of the present GM regime and tenure, more at attempts to go deeper. And even in that case, since Carr was a rookie QB last year and they have a new HC, it isn't obvious how pre-Carr seasons or 2014 will bear on Crabtree, in 2015?
My question. If what previous OAK WRs did was in a context that involved in many/most cases a different owner, GM, HC, OC, other position coaches, QBs, RBs, OL, WRs, TEs, defense, etc., how relevant is that to Crabtree, on the 2015 iteration Raiders?
To me, that would be like comparing the post-expansion Browns to what their "predecessors" did, as if it was some kind of baseline constraint, when in actuality, the pre-expansion Browns refer to the team we now call the Ravens, and are simply just another team.
* Not directing this at more shallow and recent history under the purview of the present GM regime and tenure, more at attempts to go deeper. And even in that case, since Carr was a rookie QB last year and they have a new HC, it isn't obvious how pre-Carr seasons or 2014 will bear on Crabtree, in 2015?
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I don't think anyone is implying that it can't be done because of historical numbers, but it shouldn't be ignored that the Raiders have been awful for so many years on so many levels that it is foolish to project anything above 80 receptions for a guy like Crabtree when we aren't seeing any signs of a turnaround yet. I mean here they are with yet another OC (and head coach). And Musgrave isn't exactly easy to read. He just got done working with Chip Kelly so is he going to go uptempo? Previously he rode Adrian Peterson hard, so is he going to lean on the RBs here? Jack Del Rio isn't known for prolific passing offenses. Is David Carr a legitimate NFL QB? There are so many red flags/question marks here that things sure look to be shaping up like the most recent Raiders teams, so historical milestones should at least be given a few grains of salt here.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
1 - I referenced 70, not 80. That is the incentive.
2 - Not really making projections here, just stated the obvious, it is a lot more doable than 100/1,400 or a Pro Bowl. Not a real controversial distinction there.
3 - If anybody is going back to Jerry Rice*, per the above example, that is about as relevant as comparing the Browns to the Ravens. They quite literally, probably have absolutely NOTHING in common (personnel, coaches, etc., etc., etc.), and might as well be different teams. Pointing that out is foolish, how?
* Something like this illustrates the point - "80 receptions? In Oakland?? There hasn't been an 80 rec WR on the Raiders since Rich Gannon and Jerry Rice teamed up."
2 - Not really making projections here, just stated the obvious, it is a lot more doable than 100/1,400 or a Pro Bowl. Not a real controversial distinction there.
3 - If anybody is going back to Jerry Rice*, per the above example, that is about as relevant as comparing the Browns to the Ravens. They quite literally, probably have absolutely NOTHING in common (personnel, coaches, etc., etc., etc.), and might as well be different teams. Pointing that out is foolish, how?
* Something like this illustrates the point - "80 receptions? In Oakland?? There hasn't been an 80 rec WR on the Raiders since Rich Gannon and Jerry Rice teamed up."
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I never said Jerry Rice was relevant to Michael Crabtree. I was making two points: (1) just how inept the passing game has been in Oakland for so long (2) I don't think homeboy had given much thought to his projection - it reeked of blind owner optimism.
And I didn't read back to the incentive stuff. I just saw your post calling people out for historical numbers. I think 70 rec is feasible, but if we're talking about fantasy value (which has always been my focus here), I'm not very confident that he'll reach 70 or that the rest of the numbers (yards & TDs) will be good enough to merit lineup consideration even IF he does hit the 70 number. If I stumbled into an argument over contract incentives, I'll just slowly back out of the room. If you have an angle you think I'm missing that could lead to Crabtree being a nice WR2 steal at a WR7 price, I'm all ears. The combination of Derek Carr, Bill Musgrave, Jack Del Rio, and James Jones have me pretty damn wary.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
If we agree that Rice's OAK has zero in common with 2015, and therefore no bearing on Crabtree's expectations this year, than it sounds like we are on the same page. I wasn't addressing any other angle you may have been addressing in THAT context, just pointing it out in THIS one (the 70 reception incentive).
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DocHolliday
Footballguy
The biggest factor in trying to predict Crabtree's numbers is Crabtree. Makes little sense to compare the Raiders of 2015 to the Raiders of 2014. The only thing consistent is Carr and as a Raider fan, I hope that is not consistent.
Crabtree looked slow in 2014. He was never a burner but unless he gets some quickness back after the achilles injury, he is going to do very little in Oakland. He was not as good as James Jones last season. If the Raiders draft Cooper or White, Crabtree will not even be on the field much.
Crabtree looked slow in 2014. He was never a burner but unless he gets some quickness back after the achilles injury, he is going to do very little in Oakland. He was not as good as James Jones last season. If the Raiders draft Cooper or White, Crabtree will not even be on the field much.
massraider
Footballguy
I think the chances of him being a fantasy starter are slim to...very slim.
Helping the Raiders? Sure.
We are indeed on the same page. My reference was nothing more than a factoid intended as a cautionary hint that soulfly should maybe do a little more research before dropping projections.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
What makes you think I haven't "done research"?
Let me ask you something - what'd ODB do, previous to last season, to make you believe he'd put up 1300/12 as a rookie?
If someone made that projection, would you have laughed in their face? I bet you would have.
I haven't made a single "outlandish" claim in here... I think Crabtree will be a 70-80 catch man this season (provided he doesnt get hurt). That's it. I think he is exactly what Carr needs, and Carr will lean on him quite heavily.
This season in PPR, I think he will be a decent start. not going to win you weeks on his own, but a solid contributor week to week. that's it, that's all.
He doesn't, you know where to find me to tell me Im wrong.
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Faust
MVP
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
"Bliss" is no longer an emotion?
Why can't this writer throw trade rumor feces against his cage at this time of year like the rest of the sports writer monkeys!?
In the threads of the players you own, pumping them?
I don't really like PPR, so your apparent stipulation that he'll only be relevant in PPR isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. However, I stumbled across this article which should give you some hope: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/04/14/raiders-sign-michael-crabtree/
He article states that Crabtree's aDOT was abysmal, but Kaep averaged 9.5 aDOT last year while Carr averaged 8.5 so I'm not sure things are going to get a lot better. The author also calls Oakland a "high volume passing attack" which seems to ignore the fact that the defensive minded Jack Del Rio just took over the HC duties.
I'm not saying it is impossible for Crabtree to provide value this year, especially if his ADP stays the same, but to project 80 receptions shows a lack of research. Backing down to a 70-80 rec projection shows that even you are having second thoughts about your initial number.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
From a fantasy standpoint with Jones release, that's 112 targets you need to redistribute to the remaining projected starting core of Streater, Cooper, and Crabtree. But don't forget to add back in some targets for rookie TE Clive Walford. Should be interesting projecting some numbers.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Whether they can actually do it is an aside worth discussing separately, but I fully expect the Raiders to incorporate many elements of the Chip Kelly system. They've already said they intend to use a lot more no huddle. Carr at one point mentioned how this new system is a lot more like the spread he ran at Fresno St.
Look for lots of running plays (51%+). Lots of plays in general. Even with a commitment to running, I could see more pass plays than last year if the offense is clicking. And it would be quality passing plays if it is.
Carr to Amari, an improved OL and new scheme could do wonders to open up this offense and create opportunities for #2 and 3 WRs. The key question to me is whether Carr steps up. It's always a team effort but an elite offense generally requires an elite QB.
Look for lots of running plays (51%+). Lots of plays in general. Even with a commitment to running, I could see more pass plays than last year if the offense is clicking. And it would be quality passing plays if it is.
Carr to Amari, an improved OL and new scheme could do wonders to open up this offense and create opportunities for #2 and 3 WRs. The key question to me is whether Carr steps up. It's always a team effort but an elite offense generally requires an elite QB.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I assumed Streater would be starting opposite Cooper. Crabtree looked bad last season. I hope I'm wrong and Crabs is a legit WR2
massraider
Footballguy
Fantasy-wise, they'll spread it around, Cooper will get his.
cstu
Footballguy
Streater was playing the slot last year before he got hurt. I thought with Crabtree lack of speed now he'd be in the slot.
grateful zed
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
While there's always the chance of him outdoing his ADP because of garbage yards and catches, Crabtree looked done last year.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
9-111-1
He did have 9 and 10 reception games in 2014 (only played the last five games in 2013 due to a ruptured Achilles tendon).
The most receiving yards he has had since 172 in the last regular season game of the 2012 season (year they lost in the Super Bowl).
In the last five games of the 2012 season, Crabtree was 35-538-4 (which would have prorated to 112-1,722-13).
Just turned 28 on 9-14, so far from decrepit for a WR. Could have upside, Cooper will likely/almost certainly draw the top CBs.
He did have 9 and 10 reception games in 2014 (only played the last five games in 2013 due to a ruptured Achilles tendon).
The most receiving yards he has had since 172 in the last regular season game of the 2012 season (year they lost in the Super Bowl).
In the last five games of the 2012 season, Crabtree was 35-538-4 (which would have prorated to 112-1,722-13).
Just turned 28 on 9-14, so far from decrepit for a WR. Could have upside, Cooper will likely/almost certainly draw the top CBs.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Useful for two reasons:
1) Shows he wasn't done even post-ruptured Achilles' tendon.
2) Emblematic of his game and what he does well - star prep running QB broke records in college for his RAC skills.
* He had a five game stretch pre-injury at the end of 2012 that would have prorated to about 112-1700-12 (approx., from memory).
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
What a huge improvement in Oakland's WR situation. They need a third WR or active TE involved also though.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I know this is a Crabtree thread but the DHB drop rate is what is really surprising. The article makes the same comment.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Looks like even I may have been "low" on my boy Crabs...
I think his numbers only improve w Cooper being well above expectations and drawing #1 coverage.
On pace for 92/1050/4 ....
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Hey, I hope you are right about 80+ receptions. I liked what I saw in preseason so I actually grabbed him in several leagues. Back in April I had to throw some cold water on your blind homer optimism. At that time, Derek Carr was coming off an unimpressive rookie season and the offensive philosophy was very unknown. You weren't basing your projections off of anything solid. Just optimism. Homer optimism is like a broken clock. Speaking of which, shouldn't Tre Mason be leading the world in rushing right now according to you?
Back to Crabtree, further reason for optimism is that he missed almost half of week 4 with an ankle injury. Hard to tell if that was affecting him last week, but it'll be good that he's getting rest this week. Even with missing that time, he's on pace for 154 target this year even though Carr is only averaging a very modest 32.4 passing attempts per game. As their chemistry improves, hopefully Crabtree's catch rate improves* and he finds a little better luck in the TD department.
*He's not dropping any passes, but he's only caught 56% of his targets which points to an accuracy problem.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
In fairness, I am not a Raiders fan, I am a Browns fan.FF Ninja said:
Nor was I an owner of Crabtree until early this past offseason when I traded to acquire him in Dynasty. I wasnt homerism, it was me watching a player, and thinking he is much better than he was showing, in a PISS POOR offense..
I said it multiple times... acquire him because he could be had for peanuts, and he had mentally checked out of SF... and apparently, that was right
Which, well... the Niners definitely are
see: Torrey Smith et al.
eta: As for Tre Mason... How would anyone in the world have known/guess theyd draft Gurley? No one did, not even their most die hard of fans.
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By homer, I just meant that you owned him, not that you were a fan of the actual team he played on.
I agree that the niners are terrible, but in the offseason there was no data pointing to the Oakland offense being much better. That changed during the preseason. As it stands now, you got yourself a nice buy low. It'll be interesting to see where Crabtree goes next year as a free agent. He sure seems like he has a legitimate chance to be a WR2 in all formats this year.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Ooooh, a phong is ringing... Who is it? Michael Trabtree.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Raiders OC Bill Musgrave wants to increase Michael Crabtree’s role.
"He’s been terrific. We just want to keep building his role in the offense," Musgrave said. Crabtree leads Oakland in targets (46) and has more catches than Amari Cooper. He’s been Derek Carr’s top option on third downs and in the second half of games. With Latavius Murray struggling, the Raiders are a good bet to remain pass-heavy going forward. Crabtree is PFF’s No. 7 receiver through five weeks.
"He’s been terrific. We just want to keep building his role in the offense," Musgrave said. Crabtree leads Oakland in targets (46) and has more catches than Amari Cooper. He’s been Derek Carr’s top option on third downs and in the second half of games. With Latavius Murray struggling, the Raiders are a good bet to remain pass-heavy going forward. Crabtree is PFF’s No. 7 receiver through five weeks.
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Let's hope you are correct.
If that's the case, then Crabtree could be in for a big week. Would be nice if he'd capitalize on a red zone target. He's 0-for-5 so far this year.
