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RB Doug Martin, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

Boys (and girls):   I've been holding Doug since the draft and want to share in the bubbly excitement brewing in here.  I like koolaid as much as the next guy, unless the next guy is Eddie Lacy.

Digressing, expectations need to be tempered here.  This is a borderline lottery ticket.  Remind me the last time Doug Martin was a fantasy game changer?   Even in his best beat (rookie), he basically compiled all his fantasy point Julio Jones style:  4 weeks of awesome and the rest I wish I didn't start him.  Since then he has been a fantasy wasteland.  

I watched hard knocks and got excited about his prospects this year too.  I bought in the sixth round.  But remember.  He will be coming in cold, a third of the season in, and will likely be part of a platoon for at least two weeks to start.  Not startable until week 9 minimum.  Unless your team blows r you've been nipped by injuries. 

Just saying, temper expectations. This is a slow roll that will hopefully pay off as a nice flex/upside RB2 play down the home stretch. 
Week 9 at the earliest? You don't think Martin will be startable until his fifth game after he comes back? Can you expand on that a little?

 
barackdhouse said:
Yeah the GM said something to the effect that his role wasn't locked, even his roster spot.  I think he was basically just saying we're not handing anything to anyone.  Doug Martin is the most undervalued RB fantasy wide this year.  It's criminal how late he went in drafts.  He's going to have a great year.  I'm ready to drop Quiz this week for whatever streaming piece I want to pick up next.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/07/30/doug-martin-tampa-bay-buccaneers-starting-running-back

Tex

 
Rodgers was a complete non factor in his most recent game against the Vikings. Kind of forgot he was playing until I read the recent posts in this thread.

If Martin had been available for the game the Bucs would have been more balanced and a much more difficult to beat. I don't see Rodgers standing in Martins way to opportunity at all.
Yeah, I watched the game. Quizz was turrible. 

Boys (and girls): I've been holding Doug since the draft and want to share in the bubbly excitement brewing in here. I like koolaid as much as the next guy, unless the next guy is Eddie Lacy.

Digressing, expectations need to be tempered here. This is a borderline lottery ticket. Remind me the last time Doug Martin was a fantasy game changer? Even in his best beat (rookie), he basically compiled all his fantasy point Julio Jones style: 4 weeks of awesome and the rest I wish I didn't start him. Since then he has been a fantasy wasteland.

I watched hard knocks and got excited about his prospects this year too. I bought in the sixth round. But remember. He will be coming in cold, a third of the season in, and will likely be part of a platoon for at least two weeks to start. Not startable until week 9 minimum. Unless your team blows r you've been nipped by injuries.

Just saying, temper expectations. This is a slow roll that will hopefully pay off as a nice flex/upside RB2 play down the home stretch.
This is not the hill you want to die on. Martin will have a stranglehold on this backfield as early as week 5. Sims will mix in on 3rd downs. 

Quizz goes to sleep at night and dreams of being able to do what Martin is able to do.

 
Boys (and girls):   I've been holding Doug since the draft and want to share in the bubbly excitement brewing in here.  I like koolaid as much as the next guy, unless the next guy is Eddie Lacy.

Digressing, expectations need to be tempered here.  This is a borderline lottery ticket.  Remind me the last time Doug Martin was a fantasy game changer?   Even in his best beat (rookie), he basically compiled all his fantasy point Julio Jones style:  4 weeks of awesome and the rest I wish I didn't start him.  Since then he has been a fantasy wasteland.  

I watched hard knocks and got excited about his prospects this year too.  I bought in the sixth round.  But remember.  He will be coming in cold, a third of the season in, and will likely be part of a platoon for at least two weeks to start.  Not startable until week 9 minimum.  Unless your team blows r you've been nipped by injuries. 

Just saying, temper expectations. This is a slow roll that will hopefully pay off as a nice flex/upside RB2 play down the home stretch. 
I wish I understood why this fallacy continues to permeate Martin's rookie season.  In 2012, his rookie season, Martin had:

Just 3 games he did not reach double digit points (PPR)

5 games w/ 100+ yds rushing

10 games with 100+ YFS

7 games with a TD (Two of which came in games where he struggled in yardage, so he even saved those weeks)

3 games with multiple TDs

Averaged 102.9 YFS if you don't include the two giant games (Oak 272yfs & Minn 214yfs).

**Why do people insist on disregarding the biggest games a player has when determining if they had a good season?  Aren't those a positive thing?**

You wanna pound on Martin for his poor seasons (13, 14, & 16), have at it, nobody can really defend those years.  His rookie season however, it was not just a few big games, he was a consistent performer throughout that season.

 
I've seen the other rbs they have, it's guaranteed.
Agree. This is so similar to SF situation, with the nonsense coachspeak in preseason that Hyde might get cut. I'm expecting Martin to get about 65% of the carries in his first week back. And then about 80-85% starting with his second game. Between having no competition for carries, running on fresh legs, and with a coach who seems to be tiring of Winston's turnovers......Martin will be heavily featured and should reward his patient owners with RB1 production down the stretch.

 
Agree. This is so similar to SF situation, with the nonsense coachspeak in preseason that Hyde might get cut. I'm expecting Martin to get about 65% of the carries in his first week back. And then about 80-85% starting with his second game. Between having no competition for carries, running on fresh legs, and with a coach who seems to be tiring of Winston's turnovers......Martin will be heavily featured and should reward his patient owners with RB1 production down the stretch.
This.  

 
Yeah, I watched the game. Quizz was turrible. 

This is not the hill you want to die on. Martin will have a stranglehold on this backfield as early as week 5. Sims will mix in on 3rd downs. 

Quizz goes to sleep at night and dreams of being able to do what Martin is able to do.
The guy might be right that he has a slow start, but I agree with you that these other guys are not very good. Playing against the league-worst Patriots's defense (did not expect to be saying that) in week 5 is a matchup that will make it tough to sit him.

I wish I understood why this fallacy continues to permeate Martin's rookie season.  In 2012, his rookie season, Martin had:

Just 3 games he did not reach double digit points (PPR)

5 games w/ 100+ yds rushing

10 games with 100+ YFS

7 games with a TD (Two of which came in games where he struggled in yardage, so he even saved those weeks)

3 games with multiple TDs

Averaged 102.9 YFS if you don't include the two giant games (Oak 272yfs & Minn 214yfs).

**Why do people insist on disregarding the biggest games a player has when determining if they had a good season?  Aren't those a positive thing?**

You wanna pound on Martin for his poor seasons (13, 14, & 16), have at it, nobody can really defend those years.  His rookie season however, it was not just a few big games, he was a consistent performer throughout that season.
This argument is just as bad, if not worse, than the argument against his rookie year. PPR is a flawed system that rewards volume/targets over production. It's also almost impossible to not score double digits if you are getting 20 carries and 4.4 targets per game, so noting that he only had 3 games without double digit points in PPR is basically meaningless. Any warm body is going to get you double digits with that kind of volume. You only need 70 yards from 23 touches to get 10 points, assuming you catch two thirds of your targets. Similarly, you only need to average 4.0 ypc and 7 ypr to reach 100 YFS. These are run of the mill statistics and thus these totals you are throwing around prove nothing more than that he got a lot of volume as a rookie.

And these two things bug me: (1) when people try to completely throw out or disregard big games (2) when people try to put big games in context and other people claim is akin to throwing them out.

Most of the time people are not actually throwing out the big games, they are just trying to put the whole season in context. If you do that with Martin's rookie year, he looks like a stat accumulator that came across a few bad defenses. In hindsight it becomes apparent that he was not in fact elite as fans of his rookie year believed, but he also was better than a stat compiler. He did come across a few bad defenses to pad his stats, but he was also saddled with Greg Schiano and Josh Freeman. 

My opinion on Martin is that he's a good RB. Above average NFL starter talent, but not elite. That makes him better than everyone else on that roster. He's a capable pass catcher, but the coaching staff seems to like to use Sims (certified JAG) in that role, so for fantasy purposes Doug is probably an 18 carry, 2 target per game type of back. When he's healthy and motivated, that's enough to put up top 10 RB PPG in a good offense. 

The offensive line looks suspect and Winston has been known to steal a goal line TD here or there, so I can't guarantee top 10 PPG for Martin, but I feel very confident he's going to provide some damn good value to anyone who drafted him in the RB20-RB30 range. 

 
The guy might be right that he has a slow start, but I agree with you that these other guys are not very good. Playing against the league-worst Patriots's defense (did not expect to be saying that) in week 5 is a matchup that will make it tough to sit him.

This argument is just as bad, if not worse, than the argument against his rookie year. PPR is a flawed system that rewards volume/targets over production. It's also almost impossible to not score double digits if you are getting 20 carries and 4.4 targets per game, so noting that he only had 3 games without double digit points in PPR is basically meaningless. Any warm body is going to get you double digits with that kind of volume. You only need 70 yards from 23 touches to get 10 points, assuming you catch two thirds of your targets. Similarly, you only need to average 4.0 ypc and 7 ypr to reach 100 YFS. These are run of the mill statistics and thus these totals you are throwing around prove nothing more than that he got a lot of volume as a rookie.

And these two things bug me: (1) when people try to completely throw out or disregard big games (2) when people try to put big games in context and other people claim is akin to throwing them out.

Most of the time people are not actually throwing out the big games, they are just trying to put the whole season in context. If you do that with Martin's rookie year, he looks like a stat accumulator that came across a few bad defenses. In hindsight it becomes apparent that he was not in fact elite as fans of his rookie year believed, but he also was better than a stat compiler. He did come across a few bad defenses to pad his stats, but he was also saddled with Greg Schiano and Josh Freeman. 

My opinion on Martin is that he's a good RB. Above average NFL starter talent, but not elite. That makes him better than everyone else on that roster. He's a capable pass catcher, but the coaching staff seems to like to use Sims (certified JAG) in that role, so for fantasy purposes Doug is probably an 18 carry, 2 target per game type of back. When he's healthy and motivated, that's enough to put up top 10 RB PPG in a good offense. 

The offensive line looks suspect and Winston has been known to steal a goal line TD here or there, so I can't guarantee top 10 PPG for Martin, but I feel very confident he's going to provide some damn good value to anyone who drafted him in the RB20-RB30 range. 
I'm not arguing whether he is an elite talent, a product of volume, or just another back.  I am simply pointing out that the argument that his rookie season was propped up by a few big games is not factually correct.  Nothing you just posted disproves that.

Whether you like PPR or not, it is not some fringe scoring system, it's quite common.  That makes his consistent performance in that system during his rookie season relevant, and definitely not meaningless.

I don't care how a RB gets there, if he averages 100+ yfs, he's quite valuable in any system, regardless of the number of touches.  Again, I'm not debating his talent, I'm just stating that his rookie season was most definitely not just a couple good games surrounded by a bunch you regretted starting him.

 
The guy might be right that he has a slow start, but I agree with you that these other guys are not very good. Playing against the league-worst Patriots's defense (did not expect to be saying that) in week 5 is a matchup that will make it tough to sit him.

This argument is just as bad, if not worse, than the argument against his rookie year. PPR is a flawed system that rewards volume/targets over production. It's also almost impossible to not score double digits if you are getting 20 carries and 4.4 targets per game, so noting that he only had 3 games without double digit points in PPR is basically meaningless. Any warm body is going to get you double digits with that kind of volume. You only need 70 yards from 23 touches to get 10 points, assuming you catch two thirds of your targets. Similarly, you only need to average 4.0 ypc and 7 ypr to reach 100 YFS. These are run of the mill statistics and thus these totals you are throwing around prove nothing more than that he got a lot of volume as a rookie.

And these two things bug me: (1) when people try to completely throw out or disregard big games (2) when people try to put big games in context and other people claim is akin to throwing them out.

Most of the time people are not actually throwing out the big games, they are just trying to put the whole season in context. If you do that with Martin's rookie year, he looks like a stat accumulator that came across a few bad defenses. In hindsight it becomes apparent that he was not in fact elite as fans of his rookie year believed, but he also was better than a stat compiler. He did come across a few bad defenses to pad his stats, but he was also saddled with Greg Schiano and Josh Freeman. 

My opinion on Martin is that he's a good RB. Above average NFL starter talent, but not elite. That makes him better than everyone else on that roster. He's a capable pass catcher, but the coaching staff seems to like to use Sims (certified JAG) in that role, so for fantasy purposes Doug is probably an 18 carry, 2 target per game type of back. When he's healthy and motivated, that's enough to put up top 10 RB PPG in a good offense. 

The offensive line looks suspect and Winston has been known to steal a goal line TD here or there, so I can't guarantee top 10 PPG for Martin, but I feel very confident he's going to provide some damn good value to anyone who drafted him in the RB20-RB30 range
This is totally OT and not really responsive to you directly, but it has always bugged me how suspended guys like Martin get ranked pre-draft.  

Say one guy is projected to give you 150 FPTS in 16 games, and another 150 FPTS in 12 games.  The second guy is much more valuable because you can get something greater than zero from a replacement in those first 4 weeks.  But they wind up ranked right next to each other in most lists, which is totally dumb.

Rant over.

 
I'm not arguing whether he is an elite talent, a product of volume, or just another back.  I am simply pointing out that the argument that his rookie season was propped up by a few big games is not factually correct.  Nothing you just posted disproves that.

Whether you like PPR or not, it is not some fringe scoring system, it's quite common.  That makes his consistent performance in that system during his rookie season relevant, and definitely not meaningless.

I don't care how a RB gets there, if he averages 100+ yfs, he's quite valuable in any system, regardless of the number of touches.  Again, I'm not debating his talent, I'm just stating that his rookie season was most definitely not just a couple good games surrounded by a bunch you regretted starting him.
If that's all you were trying to point out, I don't know why you bothered. Sure, a guy who got a ton of touches weekly was a relatively safe scorer in a volume driven scoring system... not really enlightening anyone there. But there were 2-3 games that undoubtedly greatly altered his end of year stat line (aka "propped it up") to make it appear elite and people who ignored that context got suckered into over-drafting him the next season. If people were only expecting 10 PPR PPG then they wouldn't have made him a top 3 pick the next year.

 
If that's all you were trying to point out, I don't know why you bothered. Sure, a guy who got a ton of touches weekly was a relatively safe scorer in a volume driven scoring system... not really enlightening anyone there. But there were 2-3 games that undoubtedly greatly altered his end of year stat line (aka "propped it up") to make it appear elite and people who ignored that context got suckered into over-drafting him the next season. If people were only expecting 10 PPR PPG then they wouldn't have made him a top 3 pick the next year.
I posted what I did in response to the post I quoted, which stated: 

"Even in his best beat (rookie), he basically compiled all his fantasy point Julio Jones style:  4 weeks of awesome and the rest I wish I didn't start him.  Since then he has been a fantasy wasteland."

Which was simply not true.  It's something that has been repeated numerous times on this board, and I just felt like pointing out that it was incorrect.  To go even further, the "Since then he has been a fantasy wasteland" is also not true, considering he was a RB1 by most scoring systems in 2015.

 Sorry, next time I'll check with you to see if it's worth bothering, or if what I have to contribute is in fact enlightening.

 
I posted what I did in response to the post I quoted, which stated: 

"Even in his best beat (rookie), he basically compiled all his fantasy point Julio Jones style:  4 weeks of awesome and the rest I wish I didn't start him.  Since then he has been a fantasy wasteland."

Which was simply not true.  It's something that has been repeated numerous times on this board, and I just felt like pointing out that it was incorrect.  To go even further, the "Since then he has been a fantasy wasteland" is also not true, considering he was a RB1 by most scoring systems in 2015.

 Sorry, next time I'll check with you to see if it's worth bothering, or if what I have to contribute is in fact enlightening.
Maybe that guy doesn't play in PPR.

 
But his point that those numbers were propped up by just a few games still stands. Half of those TDs and 25% of those yards came from 2 games.
I tell ya what, if you regretted starting Doug Martin in the 8 games (these are not including the 2 that "propped" him up) where he put up 100+ yards from scrimmage, or the two where he did not, but did manage to score 1 and 2 TD's, then I think your expectations might be a bit unreasonable.  

I stand by the facts and data I posted.

 
But his point that those numbers were propped up by just a few games still stands. Half of those TDs and 25% of those yards came from 2 games.
If Doug Martin singlehandedly wins me two games this year with 30+ point games, and scores around 10 points in the rest, I'll be thrilled.

 
FWIW, I dug deeper into the 32 games Martin played in his two fully healthy years (2012 and 2015).

7 stinkers (less than 8 points in standard scoring)

10 OK (8-12 points)

9 good (12-18)

3 very good (20-24)

3 amazing (30+)

 
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FWIW, I dug deeper into the 32 games Martin played in his two fully healthy years (2012 and 2015).

5 stinkers (less than 8 points in standard scoring)

10 OK (8-12 points)

9 good (12-18)

3 very good (20-24)

3 amazing (30+)
I assume (based on your first data set) that is all standard scoring results?

 
FWIW, I dug deeper into the 32 games Martin played in his two fully healthy years (2012 and 2015).

5 stinkers (less than 8 points in standard scoring)

10 OK (8-12 points)

9 good (12-18)

3 very good (20-24)

3 amazing (30+)
32 games or 30? The games listed here total to 30.

 
Was dropped after week 1. Picked him up.

If he can hold down the flex spot I'm going to be more than delighted.

Another stinker this week by J. Rodgers and the offense against the NYG D should solidify Marting being all go against NE. Especially if Winston throws a couple picks. 

 
Was dropped after week 1. Picked him up.

If he can hold down the flex spot I'm going to be more than delighted.

Another stinker this week by J. Rodgers and the offense against the NYG D should solidify Marting being all go against NE. Especially if Winston throws a couple picks. 
Why on earth would someone draft him then drop him after week 1?  It's almost like they didn't even know he was suspended, thought they got him at a great value, then rage dropped him after thinking he'd put up a goose egg in week 1 ?

 
Just Win Baby said:
32 games or 30? The games listed here total to 30.
My bad, it's 7 "stinker" games below 8 points.  I was originally going to set that bound at 6 points, and he's had 5 of those.  I edited.

 
Week 9 at the earliest? You don't think Martin will be startable until his fifth game after he comes back? Can you expand on that a little?
Week 9 is a bit of an exaggeration, admittedly.  But, I do think he is platooning the first couple weeks back.  And, he just makes me nervous generally given that he has a history of throwing up absolute dud weeks.  

Im in a "show me first" holding pattern.  

 
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Don't get me wrong, I am optimistic this year.  This could be a great offense. I just want to see first.  Hell, I drafted the guy and am on this train...

 
choo choo..hey if we get 80 rush yards and 30 rec yards per game thats 11 fantasy pts. ill take that every time.its like Sanu , 8 or 9 ppg ,every game ..

but I suspect DM is going to be the muscle hamster again..isnt he a f/a after the season? bellcow rb's like him are hard to find. Giants could use a guy like DM.

 
Week 9 is a bit of an exaggeration, admittedly.  But, I do think he is platooning the first couple weeks back.  And, he just makes me nervous generally given that he has a history of throwing up absolute dud weeks.  

Im in a "show me first" holding pattern.  
Makes no sense why he would platoon his first couple weeks back since he hasn't been missing time due to an injury. I fully expect him to get the vast majority, idk ~80%?, of RB touches the first week he comes back.

 
Kenny Powers said:
Makes no sense why he would platoon his first couple weeks back since he hasn't been missing time due to an injury. I fully expect him to get the vast majority, idk ~80%?, of RB touches the first week he comes back.
Doubt it.  He's been on the shelf for a month. Look at Bell's start.  You don't just sit for weeks and come in and play at game speed with guys who have been going for a month.  

Hope I'm wrong.  

 
Doubt it.  He's been on the shelf for a month. Look at Bell's start.  You don't just sit for weeks and come in and play at game speed with guys who have been going for a month.  

Hope I'm wrong.  
Bell wasn't at training camp and skipped the preseason. Martin was at training camp and played in the preseason.

 
Don't see how you could trust him this week unless there is some definitive info that comes out prior to the game. Roll of the dice. 

 
Don't see how you could trust him this week unless there is some definitive info that comes out prior to the game. Roll of the dice. 
Curious why you are skeptical. Do you feel the 3 weeks off hurts him? I don't view this as a great match up but I expect he should see a decent number of touches his first week back unless they fall way behind early, which is possible.

 
Curious why you are skeptical. Do you feel the 3 weeks off hurts him? I don't view this as a great match up but I expect he should see a decent number of touches his first week back unless they fall way behind early, which is possible.
I think the primary issue is going to be lack of PT with the team. Short week games give teams very little time to practice or install new game plans so it may be tougher to incorporate Martin into the game plan.  Plus Jaquizz was solid yesterday against a decent defense, so maybe the Martin talk lit a bit of a fire under him (even if it did Jaquizz's history shows it is unsustainable). Then there is the fact that New England is so dangerous and we all worry that they will crush anyone and everyone when coming off a loss.

I want to roll him out there but am very hesitant to do so. Bummer it's a Thursday night game.

 
Curious why you are skeptical. Do you feel the 3 weeks off hurts him? I don't view this as a great match up but I expect he should see a decent number of touches his first week back unless they fall way behind early, which is possible.
I just see a wide range of potential outcome and there is no data to support any of them.

Could he be the starter and get the lion's share of the snaps? Maybe.

Could he just split with J. Rodgers? Maybe.

Could he just get his feet wet with a handful of carries? Maybe.

I have him on my bench right now. Would absolutely love to start him, but need something to go on here.

 
I have to start him due to losing cook.  Agree he prob gets eased in but I bet he's gets a decent amount of touches

 
Choo Choo on Thrusday night against a surprisingly bad NE defense!
NE isn't that bad against the run.  They only have given up one 100+ yard rusher this year and that was week one with Hunt.  After that week, they really have tightened things up in the running defense.  No one has gone over 70 yards in the last 4 weeks. 

Contribute that to it will be a shoot out in the passing game, I'd only start him if you have no other options. 

 
NE isn't that bad against the run.  They only have given up one 100+ yard rusher this year and that was week one with Hunt.  After that week, they really have tightened things up in the running defense.  No one has gone over 70 yards in the last 4 weeks. 

Contribute that to it will be a shoot out in the passing game, I'd only start him if you have no other options. 
This has a lot to do with NE's atrocious passing defense. We just made 2017 Cam newton look like 2015 Cam Newton. 

 

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