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Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter captain_amazing
- Start date
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I think 8 wins is reasonable projection, 1 or 2 more it they catch some breaks n 1 or 2 less if they don’t.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
I believe so... as long as they are able to sustain their power rushing offense to keep their defensive players fresh throughout the season. I think Belichick will go back to his roots with ball-control offense and defense. Stidham is 2nd year and will be their QB / manager.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have seen discussion that BB is scheming the defense to be able to stop the RPO, adding faster, more athletic players that can play multiple positions. That was their weakness last year, and they should still have the best secondary in the league again (if healthy). The schedule is a lot tougher this year, but the defense should still be very good.
8-8 or 7-9 seem reasonable.
Honestly, I'm just hoping they are in the hunt for the playoffs until the end vs. some kind of depressing 2-6 start that has everyone yelling the sky is falling.
Boston
Footballguy
If Stidham is legit and the long term answer and you are able to build a young and cheap foundation with this year's draft along with unknowns (or still TBD) from the past few drafts like Wynn, Harry, Damien Harris, Cajuste, Frohlodt, Cowart, Rivers, Bentley, Joejuan and Winovich I will not be overly concerned about the record because if a good portion of those guys hit and you have your answer at QB you are set-up to turn this right around based on their cap situation not just next year but for the foreseeable future...the post Brady era will not be determined by BB the Coach it will be determined by BB the GM and how the group I listed above does this year will play the biggest role in it.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I see many similarities between the 2020 Patriots and the 2001 Patriots. Bledsoe was an established QB that ended up getting hurt and replaced by Brady, a complete unknown. While Bledsoe certainly never was the QB that Brady was, I would put forth that Brady at 42 was comparable to Bledsoe at 30 (the year he threw for 4350/24 with Buffalo in 2002).Like the 2001 Brady, 2020 Stidham is entirely unproven.
Like 2020, the offensive talent in 2001 was pretty much non existent. They had their version of Edelman (Troy Brown) and their version of Sony Michel (Antowain Smith) and then a whole lot of mediocre players. Defensively, they had their version of Gilmore (Ty Law) and McCourty (Lawyer Milloy). The only thing that team had as a huge plus that the current version doesn't have is Richard Seymour. Yes, several players on defense turned into solid players . . . but at the time they were relatively obscure.
Yeah, I get it. The game is way different now and it will be harder to win against high scoring offenses while being offensively challenged. I won't take the cheese and predict great things for the 2020 Patriots, as tempered enthusiasm with an outlook for future is a much more logical stance to have. Somehow they won in 2001 (which probably should never have happened . . . that team was about as no name and without playmakers as you could get). But the 2001 Patriots only threw for 3300/21/15 to go with roughly 1800/15 rushing the ball. They "only" scored 371 points. I say "only" because that ranked 6th in points scored. Last year, that total would have only ranked 16th best in the league. The 2001 team ranked 19th in yards gained on offense. The defense ranked 24th in yards allowed. They were a net -470 yards on the season.
The point being, if you ever looked at the roster and statistics from that 2001 season, you would have expected they would have gone 6-10 or 7-9. If we look at the 2020 roster, it would be very easy to conclude a similar prediction of 6 or 7 wins. Almost 20 years later, I can't imagine BB is worse as a coach / motivator / player developer. He likely is a worse drafter, but he has improved his salary cap management skills in that time.
Looking back at the 2000 draft, other than Brady, no one else of their other 9 draft picks did all that much for NE (or any other team). They hit on Richard Seymour and Matt Light in the 2001 draft . . . and the other players selected did close to nothing. Moving forward the rest of the decade, they usually hit on 2-3 players a draft . . .
2002 - Daniel Graham, Deion Branch, Jarvis Green
2003 - Ty Warren, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, Dan Koppen, Tully Banta-Cain
2004 - Vince Wilfork, Ben Watson
2005 - Logan Mankins, James Sanders, Matt Cassel
2006 - Stephen Gostkowski, Jeremy Mincey
2007 - Brandon Meriweather
2008 - Jerod Mayo, Matthew Slater
2009 - Patrick Chung, Darius Butler, Julian Edelman, Brandon Tate (Sebastian Vollmer)
2010 - Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Ted Larsen
Of the players I listed, they went on to play roughly 100+ games in the NFL. IMO, any player that lasted that long should be considered a plus draft pick (even if they never became a star). I included Vollmer, but he only played 88 games and had to call it quits sue to injury.
Those drafts typically bore some fruit . . . the recent drafts not so much (at least not yet anyway). It should be interesting to follow this team this year (assuming they play), as there will be a lot more in the UNKNOWN category than there's been in years.
Boston
Footballguy
A few things:
*There is one monster difference between 01 and 20 that can not be underestimated...no one was gunning for the 01 Patriots...they were a complete underdog that was able to sneak up on everyone...right now the Pats have as big of a bullseye on them as any team in NFL history...other teams smell blood right now and the fear factor of playing Brady and BB will not be there like it was in the past...they are not gonna be sneaking up on anyone and they have a very difficult schedule to boot...also, that 01 team is a once in a generation type of team...you can make a very good case that it was the biggest surprise Super Bowl Champ of all time...no one saw that coming, making the playoffs was a shock let alone winning it all
*I think you are forgetting some of the quality veteran talent that the 01 team had on D besides Lawyer and Law...Willie, Bruschi, Ted Johnson and Roman Phifer were all legit talents...BB had a lot of "his guys" there as well in Otis, Pleasant and Hamilton...not studs but guys who he could absolutely rely on and had a history with...add in Seymour who was a top 10 pick and Vrabel who came out of nowhere and this was a very good group that outside of Seymour were all basically grizzled veterans...the unit this year is gonna have to have youngsters step up and many of them are not blue chip talent on paper...I think this unit is gonna take a step backwards before they take a step forward, they lost five players who logged time last year and God forbid if Hightower or McCourty go down
*I keep hearing about the Pats going to a ball control offense...for that to happen Sony Michel is going to have to have a career year...did he look poised to do that last year? Hopefully Harris only did a redshirt year like White and Vereen did because I just don't see the run game being anything special without him contributing and you also have to factor in the respect Brady had as well as far as D's selling out and that is now gone as well
Overall, I think this team could be anywhere between a 5-11 and 10-6...if BB was not coaching 5 wins might be generous...but he is coaching and I will never doubt him but a real lot has to go right this year for them not to take a good sized step backwards and as I said before if that happens but Stidham is legit and the youngsters develop all is good as far as I am concerned.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
All valid points, although I will ask in theory . . . don't professional athletes and coaches plan and play to win every game? Yeah, the whole league is looking forward to stomping on NE. But does that make any team actually play better? If you want to say this team is weaker than others I won't argue that, but BB won in 01 and 18 with not a lot of elite producers. If that intangible element of "gunning for NE" actually translates into something, couldn't the same be said in reverse, that BB will be working extra hard to show the world we can win without Tom?
I have posted that the 2020 Patriots on paper look like an 8-8 team but BB can get them to 10 wins. Maybe this year will be a lot different, but NE has lost key players on offense and defense before and has been able to replace them many times over the years. True, they haven't had to fill holes AND replace Brady. I may easily be proven wrong, but I don't see a ton of expected drop off 2020 Brady to 2020 Stidham. If the master plan really is to shore up the defense in 2020, get Stidham's feet wet, and then go on a spending spree in 2021, I have no problem with that. To me, that's a sound strategy.
As I posted several times, the Pats still will get their fair share of young QBs, newish coaches, and some opponents they haven't faced in awhile. Historically, those have been weeks where BB outcoaches opponents and defensive scheming carries the day. I see a lot of ugly games upcoming (by that I mean not pretty to watch wins or losses with scores of 19-12 or 16-9).
I know you have brought up the line and run game several times. Those are concerns, but with better health, more depth this year, and some more able bodied TEs and a FB, that certainly would be a vast improvement over last year. We will have to see if Dante is truly gone and how much of an impact there will be if he is completely out of the picture. When he retired the last time, they still won the SB (to be fair, the 2014 team was likely more talented than the 2020 model . . . but that 2014 team had tons of RB injuries and didn't run great either).
I saw an interesting opinion by someone who said BB's coaching is worth 6 wins a year and the defense is worth 2 more. Anything the offense could give them would be layered on top of that. I forget who said it, but worse case was 8-8 with the worst offense in the league. Maybe that is a little exaggerated, but I think that line of thinking may not be that far off.
Boston
Footballguy
Overall I guess where we really differ is I see a bigger downside then you do...not saying it is gonna happen but there is a pathway to this team really falling off (as there is for being a playoff team)...if Stidham is not at least solid I think the O could be a disaster...if Hightower goes down the LB unit could be very subpar...if McCourty goes down I think this D takes a monster hit...if this kicker is nothing special winning close games becomes that much more difficult...in the past as long as Brady was there I had zero doubts that BB was gonna get them to the playoffs somehow, someway and after that anything goes...unfortunately the lack of success in the past few drafts and a bad salary cap situation (granted it is just one year) has left this team more vulnerable then they have been in 20 years because the options to plug and play/next man up are far more iffy then they have been during the BB era.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
You certainly are not wrong for any of those concerns . . . and multiple injuries to key players have frequently cratered many teams over the years. Tons of injuries this year would turn this season into a disaster in short order, but I am not going to worry about things that haven't happened yet.
Apparently people still don't believe in Stidham. I saw a text alert earlier from Yahoo that they suggested Aaron Rodgers could be the Patriots starter next year. Florio had the Patriots listed as the first option for Rodgers if he needs a new home. I find their lack of faith . . . disturbing.
Boston
Footballguy
I can easily see why people don't believe in him...he is a complete wildcard...he had an average Senior year and has played only a couple of snaps in the real season and actually got pulled by BB...if just being good in practice or preseason was all it took Michael Bishop would be in the Hall-of-Fame...if anyone else but BB was doing this he would not get the benefit of the doubt...it is very understandable why there is tremendous doubt...now being a Pats fan many of us subscribe to the "in Bill we trust" motto because there has been a 100 times he has made a move that looked very questionable only to turn out great...this is just another one although the stakes are far higher...BB lives for this type of move and I really don't see him putting himself in a position to bottom out the first year without Brady...not the optics he wants with regard to his legacy...it appears he is all in on Stidham so like you I trust him and am excited to see the kid play but until he actually produces there should be questions.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have heard Bishop's name come up a number of times recently, and while the "doing well in preseason" part may apply, I don't think the "doing well across the entire season in practice" part applies like it does to Stidham. Bishop got drafted in 1999 and was inactive pretty much the entire season. He was around for the 2000 season as well and barely played. I remember him looking good in the preseason, but I don't remember any feedback as to how well he did in practice. I remember people saying how great an athlete Bishop was, but I don't remember him having any pro level passing skills.
He only completed 50% of his passes at Kansas State. He averaged 14 rushing attempts a game his last season in college and was the prototypical dual threat QB . . . but he still wasn't much of a passer or pro ready QB. He was the precursor to Tim Tebow (but a lot less accurate). Tebow accounted for 3800 yards of offense and 35 TDs his final season. Bishop accounted for 3600/37. There was a reason why he was the 227th overall pick in the draft.
By comparison, NE had Bledsoe, Bishop, John Friesz, and Brady all on the roster . . . and they kept Brady for his work ethic and how he looked in practice. The 4th stringer stuck and the two guys in front of him got jettisoned. Bishop went to play in NFL Europe, the Arena League, and the CFL. At one point, the Packers brought him in but released him before he made the roster. After all that, just like in college, he completed half his passes in 125 games in the Canadian Football League.
What I think is funny with the media and Stidham, the consensus holds that if NE had picked up a veteran free agent, then they would be in the mix to win 11 or 12 games again this year (had they signed Winston, Newton, or Dalton). Plenty of people had them pegged to shoot up the draft board to get Tua (and again be in position to make a run this year). In all of those examples, I would have expected the team to have been much WORSE. Whoever they brought in would take a year to learn the playbook and they would have way less cap space than they do now. If they mortgaged the future to get into the Top in the draft, they would not have the recent crop of new defenders (and it would still take a year for someone to learn the system).
Essentially, I think the media has this situation completely backwards. Cam and Winston were not good fits. Dalton is Dalton (I don't think he is terrible, but he has average written all over him at this point). Had NE opted for any of those options, THEN I would have expected a 5 or 6 win season.
Boston
Footballguy
I agree their options were limited...Cam and BB is never happening...Winston is intriguing but his game is too wild for BB...Dalton wouldn't bother me as a band-aid because I think he is a guy BB could trust but what would that really accomplish in the long-term...Tua was never gonna happen because they had zero chance of moving that far up in the draft with what they have for assets, it would have taken a Ricky Williams offer and they have way too many leaks on their roster to do that...I know we disagree but I would have liked them to bring in another legit prospect so you'd have another shot at solving the QB issue should Stidham get hurt or just not work out...there is no downside to doing that because if Stidham is not the answer then this rebuild/retool or whatever you want to call it just got exponentially more difficult and if Stidham is the answer you may have also gotten your backup QB for the near future because I don't see Hoyer being around too long as he is already 34 and while a good locker-room guy I never want to see him on the field.
Deamon
Footballguy
Do we really thing Tom Brady, with one of the worst passer ratings in the NFL last year, won them 4-5 full games??
Only 1 of the Pats wins was under 6 points. Only 4 was under 14 points. I think they would still win those 14+ point wins even without Tom. Even if they win 1 of the 4 games they won by under 14, that's still a 9 win season.
Put me down for 9-7 and tied for the 7th playoff spot.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
You certainly made all valid points. One thing I'm optimistic about Sony Michel (yes, he's on my team in Dynasty PPR league) is how he finished in latter end of season last year and playoff. What held Patriots back was lack of playmakers on their receiving team, forcing them to see stacked box. Brady had no one to pass (Edelman was a completely shell of himself during latter end of the season). Belichick wisely drafted young and talent OL for past few years and a pair of TE this year while strengthening his team defense with increased emphasis of athleticism to combat the evolving trend of spread offense / RPO.Boston said:
Boston
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
Making your own thread about this wasn't enough? And yes, they have 6 of 8 games on the road during a stretch. That is brutal. It would be far more advantageous for the Pats to throw one of those final two home games into that 8 game stretch. If anything, the final two at home hurts them. This is the biggest stretch of a conspiracy theory I've ever seen.
Sorry, didn't mean to get Patriot folks upset. You get the Ravens and 49'ers (bye week before) at Home in 2020 and the NFL gave you back to back @ Chargers on Sunday the @ Rams on Thursday. It's good for business.
Deamon
Footballguy
I'm not a Pats fan at all.
What does the Ravens and 49ers at home have to do with it? You do know the home/away decisions and opponents aren't made by the NFL right? They're all predetermined.
nittanylion
Footballguy
I think a 9-7 record is well within the realm of possibility for this Pats team. Belichick. a strong running game and that defense alone gets them to .500. Oddsmakers are hedging that 8.5 with pretty expensive juice (-130)...
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Over. BB would not pass over Brady, Newton, Winston, Dalton, and second tier college kids if he didn’t think Stidham could play. The defense is still going to be at it near the top of the league. With better health, the offense will be better than they showed the end of last year. Even with a tougher schedule, they should still get to 10 wins.
Boston
Footballguy
If they are 8-8 and Stidham is legit I will be very happy...looking at the schedule the 8.5 makes sense...a lot of tough games...I think the D takes a pretty big step backwards the first half of the year and while I keep hearing speculation about running the ball I just don’t know if the personnel is there for it to be anything too special...x-factor is gonna be the kicker...they will probably be in a lot of tight games and the rookie kicker will be a wildcard...I really see this as a bridge year and it’s all about coming out of the year with a foundation of good young players and a ton of salary cap space to be able to compete at a high level as soon as 2021.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's a tough schedule this year for them. The two SB participants, a revamped LVR squad, a revamped DEN squad. The NFC West is no joke, nor is the AFC West. Looks like trouble. Drawing HOU and BAL as your opponents outside of your divisional and round robin divisional play can't make them too happy.
elguapo07
Footballguy
They went 5-1 vs AFCE and 4-0 vs NFCE plus Cin and Clev. The rest of the AFCE is slightly better they play NFCW and also KC and Balt. Their D was very good last year but they lost some key guys on the front 7.
They're getting younger and more athletic but I think it'll take a few yrs for BB to get this team to where he needs it to be assuming Stid is their guy.
I see far more downside with a limited ceiling. 6-8 wins
They're getting younger and more athletic but I think it'll take a few yrs for BB to get this team to where he needs it to be assuming Stid is their guy.
I see far more downside with a limited ceiling. 6-8 wins
I feel like this is a 6-8 win team, but the BB factor could be huge this year.
I've got to think the COVID-19 situation is going to screw up poorly coached/managed teams this year. BB will be prepared. Could see the BB factor accounting for 2 additional wins creating what should be a 6-8 win season more of a 8-9 win season.
I've got to think the COVID-19 situation is going to screw up poorly coached/managed teams this year. BB will be prepared. Could see the BB factor accounting for 2 additional wins creating what should be a 6-8 win season more of a 8-9 win season.
Boston
Footballguy
Agreed with this...as I I have said before it's more about BB the GM right now then BB the Coach...we all know that BB the Coach is the best...the issue right now is has BB the GM given the Coach enough to work with...their drafting recently has not been good and there is no doubt as far as veterans go they have lost far more then they have brought in for the upcoming season...you look at that roster and there is no way to really know what the talent level is...is Stidham legit, can Wynn stay healthy, is Andrews OK, can Harry play like a first rounder, can the youngsters at LB replace the three vets they lost and what happens if Hightower gets hurt, will the D2 Safety translate to the pros, is Beau Allen an upgrade or downgrade from Shelton, is Winovich ready to be a starter, can Wise finally get consistent, can they rely on their rookie kicker, can Asiasi and Keene take the TE position from a black hole to a plus, did Damien Harris redshirt or is he a bust, can Sony Michel play like a legit lead back and how will the locker-room and crunch time during games be without Brady...this team has so many questions and while BB the Coach is as good as you get get BB the GM has had his fair share of hits and misses...so the question is will BB the Coach make a 5 win team a 7 win team or is this a 8 win team that he will turn into a 10 win team...it's very easy to see this season has more questions then at any time since 2001 and I think realistically they could be anywhere from a 6 to a 10 win team.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have looked at some sites that have predicted game by game scores for the upcoming season. NE had a +195 scoring differential last year. Some sites have them at -50 or -60 this year. I get that Brady is gone and they lost some defensive players. And they have a tougher schedule this year. But a 255 point swing in scoring differential? That seems excessive.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
I watched some film on your guy Jared Stidham and the comparison I arrived to was:
Chad Pennington with legs. The guy is deceptively fast with a noodle arm. Has enough gusto to hit intermediate patterns and the patented Patriots 5 yard strikes are well in play.
You can make the playoffs with this guy if you defense cooperates. Although, the lack of a "home run" hitter on offense is concerning.
Chad Pennington with legs. The guy is deceptively fast with a noodle arm. Has enough gusto to hit intermediate patterns and the patented Patriots 5 yard strikes are well in play.
You can make the playoffs with this guy if you defense cooperates. Although, the lack of a "home run" hitter on offense is concerning.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Interesting read. I have the over-under on his 10 predictions for the new year at 1.5.
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
I just looked at your non-divisional schedule:
@Seahawks
Raiders
@Chiefs
Broncos
49ers
Ravens
@Texans
Cardinals
@Chargers
@Rams
I spy 5 winnable games. The winnability of those last two road west coast games will 100% on what your record is at that time.
The Patriots getting Trevor Lawrence will be great for the league.
@Seahawks
Raiders
@Chiefs
Broncos
49ers
Ravens
@Texans
Cardinals
@Chargers
@Rams
I spy 5 winnable games. The winnability of those last two road west coast games will 100% on what your record is at that time.
The Patriots getting Trevor Lawrence will be great for the league.
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NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Ive always thought of Schein as a bit of a clown not to be taken seriously and the "look at me" 5-11 as best case scenario seems to fit his mo. He emphasizes NEs tuff schedule and appears oblivious to the raiders difficult run schedule in proclaiming jacobs the rushing champ. 5-11 much more likely worse case scenario.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
On the road, I don't think so. The big variable is whether or not the Pats are playing for anything that late in the season.
Seems like that would be a big game for Watson and the Texans who are more likely to be playing for something, imo.
From what I've seen on tape, that 49ers defense would rattle Brady let alone the massacre they're gonna pull off against Stidham.
49ers are better in all stages of the game. I'd love to hear the argument on how Stidham and friends can pull that off.
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
The good news is that you guys get a decade of Trevor Lawrence after this!!!
ratbast
Footballguy
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I still have a hard time seeing NE go from +195 point scoring differential and +1250 yardage differential last year to god awful this year. Sure, a lot of that came in the cakewalk of the first half of the season.
Across the last 8 games and the playoff loss, without much contribution from the offense and against tougher competition, the Pats held a +188 yardage differential advantage. They had a -5 point scoring differential, but the offense turned the ball over and allowed 3 TDs on a fumble and 2 INTs. The point being, the NE defense over those 9 games only allowed 18 ppg while the offense was banged up and not doing a whole lot. Overall, NE only scored 16 fewer points from the year before (when they won the SB) . . . it was the defensive that allowed 100 fewer points than in 2018. Offensively, the team scored 47 TD in 2018 vs. 42 TD in 2019. Yet for some reason, people made it out like the offense was completely inept (which admittedly at times may have been the case).
NE has endured plenty of personnel losses over the years and didn't miss them too much . . . with the obvious exception being they have not had to restock at the QB position. We will have to see how things play out, but IMO the offense would not do any better with a 43-year-old Brady that clearly was not into the offense and didn't really want to be there anymore than it would with an eager Stidham and the same cast of characters on offense. With better health, I think the 2020 offense should be in line to do about the same as what they did last year (which was rank 15th in net yardage).
The team will go as far as the defense can take them . . . the offense scored 42 TD last year . . . the defense only allowed 20 TD. It's safe to project the defense to allow more points this year . . . but to the point where NE only wins 4-6 games? I don't see it. Plus we all know BB is chomping at the bit to show the universe he can win without Brady. I just don't see NE imploding, even if on the surface it looks like they don't have much talent or big names on the team. But that's why they (hopefully) play the games.
Across the last 8 games and the playoff loss, without much contribution from the offense and against tougher competition, the Pats held a +188 yardage differential advantage. They had a -5 point scoring differential, but the offense turned the ball over and allowed 3 TDs on a fumble and 2 INTs. The point being, the NE defense over those 9 games only allowed 18 ppg while the offense was banged up and not doing a whole lot. Overall, NE only scored 16 fewer points from the year before (when they won the SB) . . . it was the defensive that allowed 100 fewer points than in 2018. Offensively, the team scored 47 TD in 2018 vs. 42 TD in 2019. Yet for some reason, people made it out like the offense was completely inept (which admittedly at times may have been the case).
NE has endured plenty of personnel losses over the years and didn't miss them too much . . . with the obvious exception being they have not had to restock at the QB position. We will have to see how things play out, but IMO the offense would not do any better with a 43-year-old Brady that clearly was not into the offense and didn't really want to be there anymore than it would with an eager Stidham and the same cast of characters on offense. With better health, I think the 2020 offense should be in line to do about the same as what they did last year (which was rank 15th in net yardage).
The team will go as far as the defense can take them . . . the offense scored 42 TD last year . . . the defense only allowed 20 TD. It's safe to project the defense to allow more points this year . . . but to the point where NE only wins 4-6 games? I don't see it. Plus we all know BB is chomping at the bit to show the universe he can win without Brady. I just don't see NE imploding, even if on the surface it looks like they don't have much talent or big names on the team. But that's why they (hopefully) play the games.