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Alright. I figure this is as good of a place to do this as any. I've been on the Brady and Patriot hate train for a very long time. What we saw last night was the poise of a legendary QB and coach,

I heart BB when he talks X's and O's. Just heard radio interview with Hoodie and morphed into 15 minute discussion on Randy Moss. Said Moss is the smartest receiver he's ever seen.  Mentioned tha

Thumbs up to Julian Edelman, who has upped his game in the community service / goodwill category with Gronk retiring. For those that didn't know, Gronk was a staple in visiting sick kids at Boston are

The health and status of Cam Newton is a closely guarded secret. Basically, nobody knows. But it looks like if Cam can't go, Stidham will get the call to start against the Broncos on Monday (assuming there are no other setbacks before then). At least that's the rumor.

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  • 4 months later...
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The Athletic's Jeff Howe said the Patriots "have had conversations regarding every potential [quarterback] trade target in the league."

Howe reports that head coach Bill Belichick and the New England organization are keen on upgrading at the QB position but "have so far been thwarted by inflated prices in an offseason that is currently siding with the sellers." The Patriots spoke to the Lions about acquiring Matthew Stafford and to the Eagles about trading for Carson Wentz, though the team was never considered a serious contender to land either quarterback. Howe mentioned Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, and Jimmy Garoppolo as signal callers who could be pursued by Belichick in the coming weeks. The team is a decidedly unfavorable landing spot for incoming QBs unless and until they upgrade their skill position players -- some of the worst in the NFL. The Patriots haven't ruled out re-signing Cam Newton, whose season with the team could most charitably be described as forgettable. Howe said the team -- which holds the 15th pick in this spring's NFL Draft -- could trade up and take one of the top three or four QBs. 

RELATED: 

Marcus Mariota

, Jimmy Garoppolo

, Deshaun Watson

, Teddy Bridgewater

, Sam Darnold

SOURCE: The Athletic 

Feb 22, 2021, 8:16 AM ET

 

 

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Waiting for Anarchy or other informed party to stop by and verify or reputdiate my perception that half the defense are free agents this year.

We need Allen Robinson or some other dramatic skill player infusion more than we need an upgrade over Stidham / Newton.  That's considering the above list and assuming Watson is too expensive.

 

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10 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

Waiting for Anarchy or other informed party to stop by and verify or reputdiate my perception that half the defense are free agents this year.

We need Allen Robinson or some other dramatic skill player infusion more than we need an upgrade over Stidham / Newton.  That's considering the above list and assuming Watson is too expensive.

 

The answer is both...you need a major upgrade at both QB and the skill positions...gotta be both or the season is DOA before it begins.

Here is a list of Patriot FA's...the big defensive names are Guy, Butler and Jackson but he is a RFA...other names are Wise, Jason McCourty and Simon...will be interesting to see what they do here...Jackson is the big one, they need to get him signed long term...i like Guy but he is 31 and unless it is team friendly I would let him walk...as for the others i am so so with all of them and with the cap space they have they can figure it out if they walk.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/new-england-patriots/

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Catch 22. Tough to get a QB like Watson on board with no pass catchers. Tough to get pass catchers with a terrible QB situation. The money is there to lure the likes of  Allen Robinson and Hunter Henry and immediately be much better (on paper). Regardless of which FA targets may be worth the pricetag, it's just hard to sell anyone based on the current roster.

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21 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Catch 22. Tough to get a QB like Watson on board with no pass catchers. Tough to get pass catchers with a terrible QB situation. The money is there to lure the likes of  Allen Robinson and Hunter Henry and immediately be much better (on paper). Regardless of which FA targets may be worth the pricetag, it's just hard to sell anyone based on the current roster.

Money talks. 

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9 hours ago, Blackbear said:

Money talks. 

Gonna have to now...while it was a very nice run the days of getting players at 50 cents on the dollar are over...BB can not build this team the same way he did with Brady, if he does it's gonna be a very long time until we see another title.

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NE had worse receivers in 2006 and went out and added Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Gaffney. They have been able to address needs in the past. That being said, they had Brady entering his prime then, competent WR are way more expensive now, and the chances of transforming the offense to record setting levels again are zero. But they obviously will attempt to do something to bring in receiving help. Not having a QB certainly won’t help wow any free agents (unless they acquire one soon). They will likely have to overpay to get a legitimate WR1.

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3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

NE had worse receivers in 2006 and went out and added Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Gaffney. They have been able to address needs in the past. That being said, they had Brady entering his prime then, competent WR are way more expensive now, and the chances of transforming the offense to record setting levels again are zero. But they obviously will attempt to do something to bring in receiving help. Not having a QB certainly won’t help wow any free agents (unless they acquire one soon). They will likely have to overpay to get a legitimate WR1.

The issue is they don't need a WR...they need a whole unit...right now Meyers is your only viable WR (I am assuming Edelman is gone...if he isn't he could help but not sure he can stay healthy) and while I like him he is more of a #3...also, the TE unit is a mess, that was an embarrassment next year...it is still very early for Keene and Assiasi but there is no way you can go into this year without an upgrade there as well.

Can't believe I am saying this but I would rather have the 2006 unit of Caldwell, Troy Brown, Gabriel, Gaffney (he was on the team in 06) as well as Graham and Watson at TE...that was a bad unit (it cost them a Super Bowl) but last year's was the worst I have ever seen.

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2 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

why NE didn't pay for Wentz beats me .... then draft WR's and/or sign a couple and rebuild the passing game

right now, they don't have much :( 

I am not a Wentz fan and one of his issues appears to be he doesn't like to be coached hard so can't see him being a fit...it's going to be interesting to see what they do because under no condition can Cam Newton line up at QB for them again...if he does the season is over before it begins.

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11 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

why NE didn't pay for Wentz beats me .... then draft WR's and/or sign a couple and rebuild the passing game

right now, they don't have much :( 

It isn’t hard to believe... a QB that was worse than Cam was last season at 25 million and have to give up a conditional 2nd(likely becomes a 1st) and 3rd round pick for him?

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20 minutes ago, Boston said:

The issue is they don't need a WR...they need a whole unit...right now Meyers is your only viable WR (I am assuming Edelman is gone...if he isn't he could help but not sure he can stay healthy) and while I like him he is more of a #3...also, the TE unit is a mess, that was an embarrassment next year...it is still very early for Keene and Assiasi but there is no way you can go into this year without an upgrade there as well.

Can't believe I am saying this but I would rather have the 2006 unit of Caldwell, Troy Brown, Gabriel, Gaffney (he was on the team in 06) as well as Graham and Watson at TE...that was a bad unit (it cost them a Super Bowl) but last year's was the worst I have ever seen.

I forgot they added Gaffney mid season in 2006. Regardless, they added three productive receivers in one offseason. Theoretically they could sign a legit free agent, trade for a veteran, and draft someone early. They likely won’t do that, but they could. 

From what I have heard, the two TE’s they drafted last year likely aren’t going to amount to much. Asiasi apparently didn’t get what they were trying to get him to do in practice all season. Keene seems to have some utility doing a variety of things but seems to be a rotational guy that won’t catch a lot of passes. But they are young and maybe things will change. 

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On 2/23/2021 at 9:51 AM, Boston said:

The issue is they don't need a WR...they need a whole unit...right now Meyers is your only viable WR (I am assuming Edelman is gone...if he isn't he could help but not sure he can stay healthy) and while I like him he is more of a #3...also, the TE unit is a mess, that was an embarrassment next year...it is still very early for Keene and Assiasi but there is no way you can go into this year without an upgrade there as well.

Can't believe I am saying this but I would rather have the 2006 unit of Caldwell, Troy Brown, Gabriel, Gaffney (he was on the team in 06) as well as Graham and Watson at TE...that was a bad unit (it cost them a Super Bowl) but last year's was the worst I have ever seen.

I’m guessing Cleveland might be willing to part with Njoku. Harrison Bryant has made him expendable. Perhaps NE would trade for him. 
 

Your assumption on Edelman very easily can become true. Just read Edelmans recovery is slow and he may not be ready at beginning of the year. At age 34, he might not find it is worth it for him to play given his knee issues. 

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From what I am hearing and observing, Plan A for QB is Jimmy G. If they don’t end up with him, Plan B sounds like trading up in the draft to take one. It doesn’t sound like they have any interest in any of the current free agent QBs. If they end up with Garoppolo, maybe they  would take a Day 2 or Day 3 developmental QB. 

To me, it depends on how they end up with Jimmy G. If they trade real assets and have to pay him $25M a year, then I wouldn’t love the move. If the Niners end up with Bridgewater or move up in the draft and take one of the primary QBs and cut Jimmy G, I guess I could live with him coming back if he doesn’t get overpaid. 

I have seen talk and mock drafts where NE moves Gilmore for a 3 and a 4. That seems a little light in my book, but maybe I am out of touch. Sure, he’s older, but I don’t think his play has dropped off much. He’s 30 and only due $7M this year. I would think that would make him desirable (unless he insists on a big extension).  

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23 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

From what I am hearing and observing, Plan A for QB is Jimmy G. If they don’t end up with him, Plan B sounds like trading up in the draft to take one. It doesn’t sound like they have any interest in any of the current free agent QBs. If they end up with Garoppolo, maybe they  would take a Day 2 or Day 3 developmental QB. 

To me, it depends on how they end up with Jimmy G. If they trade real assets and have to pay him $25M a year, then I wouldn’t love the move. If the Niners end up with Bridgewater or move up in the draft and take one of the primary QBs and cut Jimmy G, I guess I could live with him coming back if he doesn’t get overpaid. 

I have seen talk and mock drafts where NE moves Gilmore for a 3 and a 4. That seems a little light in my book, but maybe I am out of touch. Sure, he’s older, but I don’t think his play has dropped off much. He’s 30 and only due $7M this year. I would think that would make him desirable (unless he insists on a big extension).  

*I am very comfortable with those two options...it is what they should be doing, those are your two best scenarios 

*If the Niners are sniffing around Bridgewater that is not to bring him in as a back-up, he makes way too much for a back-up...it would to bring him in as a bridge QB if they are drafting a rookie QB...one of the issues getting Jimmy G could be the Niners might want to get something back from the Pats (or another team) so they could add it into a package to move up.

*Would be shocked if Gilmore is not dealt...the potential issue with what they would get back is because he will be a FA after this year and at his age teams could be leery of extending him...he also seems like a Law/Revis type of guy where he is gonna try to max out his earnings...he is still a big time addition for a team that is close so they will get something solid in return...a #3 and a #4 is not a bad return...after the projected comp picks it would give them two #3's and four #4's which would give them a ton of draft flexibility or allow them to trade for a player as some teams may be really feeling the cap squeeze. 

Edited by Boston
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The Raiders get a 2022 fifth round pick while the Patriots get back the Raiders 2022 seventh round pick. 

ETA add: I have seen the trade listed two different ways. The second version is the teams swap 2022 5th round picks and the Pats give up their 7th. That would be giving up practically nothing to take on Brown. 

If they move on from Cannon, he was projected as a $9.6 million cap charge. They would take $2.5 million in dead cap money and save the difference toward the cap.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

The Raiders get a 2022 fifth round pick while the Patriots get back the Raiders 2022 seventh round pick. 

ETA add: I have seen the trade listed two different ways. The second version is the teams swap 2022 5th round picks and the Pats give up their 7th. That would be giving up practically nothing to take on Brown. 

If they move on from Cannon, he was projected as a $9.6 million cap charge. They would take $2.5 million in dead cap money and save the difference toward the cap.

So, salary cap-wise the addition of Brown (11 mil) and the subtraction of Cannon (saves 7.1 mil) means their cap gets dinged 4.9 mil for this season...right? 

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10 minutes ago, Boston said:

So that means salary cap-wise the addition of Brown (11 mil) and the subtraction of Brown (saves 7.1 mil) means their cap gets dinged 4.9 mil for this season...right? 

If my math is right and the salary info is accurate . . .

Brown ($11,000,000) + Cannon dead cap ($2,566,668) - Cannon salary ($9,622,918) = $3,943,750

(Your math was off by a million.)

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

If my math is right and the salary info is accurate . . .

Brown ($11,000,000) + Cannon dead cap ($2,566,668) - Cannon salary ($9,622,918) = $3,943,750

(Your math was off by a million.)

Even better...I like this move...it is the one area of the team I feel very good about although losing Andrews would be a step backwards.

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6 hours ago, Boston said:

Even better...I like this move...it is the one area of the team I feel very good about although losing Andrews would be a step backwards.

Even better still, apparently the deal is incentive laden worth up to that $11 million number in total. We will have to see what the actual trade is and the actual contract terms are (both of those have been reported differently by different places today). Depending upon how the incentives are structured, they may not be counted against this season's cap . . . so that $3.9 million difference between Brown and Cannon could potentially disappear altogether for this year.

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Their days of being super bowl contenders are gone but for some reason I am very interested to see what they do at QB. I don’t think they draft one in first round even though Mac Jones is constantly linked to them. Do they try and reunite with Jimmy G?

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26 minutes ago, Balco said:

Their days of being super bowl contenders are gone but for some reason I am very interested to see what they do at QB. I don’t think they draft one in first round even though Mac Jones is constantly linked to them. Do they try and reunite with Jimmy G?

:blackdot:

 

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1 hour ago, Balco said:

Their days of being super bowl contenders are gone but for some reason I am very interested to see what they do at QB. I don’t think they draft one in first round even though Mac Jones is constantly linked to them. Do they try and reunite with Jimmy G?

Jones is now getting mocked in some drafts in the Top 8-10 picks overall. I don't see NE moving up to take him. If the other 4 QB's do go quickly and Jones is the 5th QB selected, I can't help but wonder how often the 5th QB selected turns into a big time NFL QB. I have my reservations about Jones. He played on an offense full of future NFL talent. Most of the time, he had a clean pocket and all day to throw . . . which won't happen very often in the NFL. I heard an evaluator the other day point out that when he was pressured his productivity dropped substantially, and the NFL comp they guy gave was . . . Jarett Stidham.

As far as Jimmy G goes, there are so many moving parts that have to fall right for him to end up on NE. For starters, the Niners would need another QB before they moved on from him. Next, NE could either trade for him (if there is a reasonable deal to be made) or wait for him to be released (and hope no one else will sign him). I don't think NE would want him for two years and $50.5 million. He would have to agree to play for less. Oh . . . I forgot to mention he has a no trade clause, which could complicate matters even more.

While that situation sorts itself out, NE can't just sit around and simply hoped they land Garoppolo. Because who knows if he will be available and when that would be. Similarly, if SF opts to move up in the draft to take one of the rookie wunderkinds, that begs the question why the Patriots shouldn't consider doing the same thing. I don't think full price Jimmy is the solution, but a discounted Jimmy for a couple of years might not be so bad if they work on building up the rest of the team.

Bottom line, the Pats have both cash and draft capital (which is somewhat rare for them). They also need help in multiple places. Personally, I would rather they made a splash and drafted a rookie QB. Because if they don't and opt for a veteran instead, that guy will come with plenty of warts and blemishes . . . and anyone decent will most likely come with a decent size salary. So their pile of cash to spend could be half gone by bringing in an established QB.

If they somehow end up with a competent QB (said half the league pretty much every year), they have the resources to upgrade the offense if they sign, trade, AND draft a WR (or make one of those a TE instead). That being said, I don't have much faith that they can draft a stud WR (I mean, they thought Harry was going to light up the league . . . 'nuff said). I would much rather they just shock people and overpay for someone than do the usual (wait for weeks or months and get "good value" on leftover free agents that won't move the needle much).

Is it crazy to envision them trading for OBJ, signing Rudolph, and drafting a decent rookie? Probably, but those are the types of things they will have to do to give a jolt to the offense. We may see other veteran guys get whacked this week, so there may be some other decent players on the market. Maybe they find a team that would rather get a late pick instead of cutting someone go for nothing. I don't know who that might be, but it's POSSIBLE that could happen. As far as QBs go, I still think Jordan Love has to be someone available to be had in a trade. ARod can't want him around and Love is not going to see the field unless Rodgers gets hurt. I am on an island on this one, as I have not seen anyone suggest that Love is a potential trade target for the Patriots. I also don't know what it would take to get him, but I would guess less than it would take to move up in the draft to take a QB.

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7 hours ago, Boston said:

Even better...I like this move...it is the one area of the team I feel very good about although losing Andrews would be a step backwards.

How would you feel if they brought back Cannon to be a depth piece and not a starter, meaning he would renegotiate his deal from $9.6 million down to some much lower number (say $3.5 million)?

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29 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

How would you feel if they brought back Cannon to be a depth piece and not a starter, meaning he would renegotiate his deal from $9.6 million down to some much lower number (say $3.5 million)?

If they were competing for a title I would be more for it...where they are now I would rather go young...that being said you can never have enough O-lineman and with the unreliability issues both Wynn and Brown have it wouldn't bother me if they weren't confident in the youngsters.

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I actually think Rudolph would be a perfect fit for Pats. He can block and I think Vikings really underutilized him as a receiver. Can’t see him costing a ton. 

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23 hours ago, Boston said:

Even better...I like this move...it is the one area of the team I feel very good about although losing Andrews would be a step backwards.

To follow up, the trade does appear to be Brown + a 7th for a 5th. Ben Volin guesstimates the cap hit for Brown will be between $5-8 million. Nothing can be made official until 3/17, so we may not know more until then. Assuming they move on from Cannon entirely . . .

Brown ($5,000,000) + Cannon dead cap ($2,566,668) - Cannon salary ($9,622,918) = -$2,056,250
Brown ($8,000,000) + Cannon dead cap ($2,566,668) - Cannon salary ($9,622,918) = $943,750

Based off of those numbers, NE could conceivably save $2 million a year in cap space (on the low side) or pay just under $1 million more (on the high side) by swapping Cannon for Brown.

With the cap set for $182.5 million, OvertheCap has the Pats with $68.5 million of cap room before they add Brown. However, Gilmore could be shipped out, Hightower and McCourty will likely be asked to shave some money off, Cannon will probably be gone, and Edelman might be out of the picture entirely. They would get back $3.5 million by moving on from JE11, and given that he may not be able to play anytime soon and is effectively 35 years old, that seems to make the most sense. Let him join the rest of the gang down in Tampa.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

To follow up, the trade does appear to be Brown + a 7th for a 5th. Ben Volin guesstimates the cap hit for Brown will be between $5-8 million. Nothing can be made official until 3/17, so we may not know more until then. Assuming they move on from Cannon entirely . . .

Brown ($5,000,000) + Cannon dead cap ($2,566,668) - Cannon salary ($9,622,918) = -$2,056,250
Brown ($8,000,000) + Cannon dead cap ($2,566,668) - Cannon salary ($9,622,918) = $943,750

Based off of those numbers, NE could conceivably save $2 million a year in cap space (on the low side) or pay just under $1 million more (on the high side) by swapping Cannon for Brown.

With the cap set for $182.5 million, OvertheCap has the Pats with $68.5 million of cap room before they add Brown. However, Gilmore could be shipped out, Hightower and McCourty will likely be asked to shave some money off, Cannon will probably be gone, and Edelman might be out of the picture entirely. They would get back $3.5 million by moving on from JE11, and given that he may not be able to play anytime soon and is effectively 35 years old, that seems to make the most sense. Let him join the rest of the gang down in Tampa.

It is gonna be absolutely fascinating to see what they do in free agency and trades...anyone who says they know what they are gonna do is full of BS...this could go in so many different directions.

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Just now, Boston said:

It is gonna be absolutely fascinating to see what they do in free agency and trades...anyone who says they know what they are gonna do is full of BS...this could go in so many different directions.

I am pretty sure BB and his staff don't really have a feel for how things are going to go and there are a million and one potential outcomes. But I can bet they are hoping other vets start getting axed across the league so they have more options to choose from. Although I would suggest that for some spots they are looking to fill, they do THE OPPOSITE of what they've done in the past because they mucked things up so badly over the years.

There is definitely a bell curve at play here where there is a chance they make all the right moves and are right back in the mix as a true contender (if everything goes right) . . . all the way to they get a Top 5 pick next year (if they procrastinate, bomb on their draft picks, and load up on guys for low $$$ coming off of injuries and they don't work out). The middle ground is the most likely outcome . . . a .500 team or in contention for a wild card spot. They went from 5 wins in 2000 to 11 wins in 2001, so it is possible. Of course, they don't have a young TB12 on the roster, so that's why it is extremely unlikely they can catch lightning in a bottle again.

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18 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I am pretty sure BB and his staff don't really have a feel for how things are going to go and there are a million and one potential outcomes. But I can bet they are hoping other vets start getting axed across the league so they have more options to choose from. Although I would suggest that for some spots they are looking to fill, they do THE OPPOSITE of what they've done in the past because they mucked things up so badly over the years.

There is definitely a bell curve at play here where there is a chance they make all the right moves and are right back in the mix as a true contender (if everything goes right) . . . all the way to they get a Top 5 pick next year (if they procrastinate, bomb on their draft picks, and load up on guys for low $$$ coming off of injuries and they don't work out). The middle ground is the most likely outcome . . . a .500 team or in contention for a wild card spot. They went from 5 wins in 2000 to 11 wins in 2001, so it is possible. Of course, they don't have a young TB12 on the roster, so that's why it is extremely unlikely they can catch lightning in a bottle again.

Totally agree the swing is vast...last year's draft looks solid but the drafts the years prior are haunting them right now...I really hope BB understands that he can not build the team the same way he did with TB as well as the fact as currently constructed they are not going to be a destination for vets who will take a discount...I never worry about BB the Coach but right now it is BB the GM that controls the future...with all their cap space and a solid amount of draft picks as long as they have a functional QB they should be able to be a wildcard team with the makings of a solid foundation for the future.

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1 minute ago, Boston said:

Totally agree the swing is vast...last year's draft looks solid but the drafts the years prior are haunting them right now...I really hope BB understands that he can not build the team the same way he did with TB as well as the fact as currently constructed they are not going to be a destination for vets who will take a discount...I never worry about BB the Coach but right now it is BB the GM that controls the future...with all their cap space and a solid amount of draft picks as long as they have a functional QB they should be able to be a wildcard team with the makings of a solid foundation for the future.

Their recent drafts have been less than stellar, especially in the early rounds.

Obviously QB is their biggest need and most impactful question mark. I don't love the talk that Cam may return. Sure, I agree with all the reasons and explanations as to why things didn't work out (new team, no offseason, limited practice, complex playbook, COVID, injuries to other players, etc.). That being said, I think Newton can't be relied on when he needs to be, has shoulder issues, at times can't throw more than 10 yards, and is no longer close to the player he once was. His biggest contribution last year was he played for peanuts. Bill likes him, and that is a microcosm as to how they ended up in the situation they are in. Guys that are hardworking, coming off injuries, and cheap doesn't mean they are talented and productive.

When you look at their first round picks in recent years . . .

2020 - Traded out of the first round (Turned into Kyle Duggar)
2019 - Took N'Keal Harry at 1.32
2018 - Took Isaiah Wynn at 1.23 and Sony Michel at 1.31
2017 - Traded for Brandin Cooks (Who turned into the pick used on Wynn)
2016 - Pick forfeited due to Deflategate
2015 - Selected Malcolm Brown at 1.32
2014 - Picked Dominique Easley at 1.29
2013 - Traded out of first round (Turned into Jamie Collins and Logan Ryan)
2012 - Hit on both Chandler Jones at 1.21 and Dont'a Hightower at 1.25
2011 - Picked Nate Solder at 1.17
2010 - Moved down a few spots and took Devin McCourty at 1.27

They clearly had much better results from 2010-2013 than they did after that. Which is why when people hem and haw about trading draft picks to move up and draft a legit QB prospect I ask why are they so concerned? They haven't done great in recent drafts and the picks have been mostly wasted picks.

Unfortunately, their second round picks haven't done a heck of a lot either . . .

2020 - Traded pick for Mohamed Sanu
2019 - Traded up to draft Joejuan Williams
2018 - Drafted Duke Dawson
2017 - Traded pick for Kony Ealy
2016 - Drafted Cyrus Jones
2015 - Drafted Jordan Richards
2014 - Drafted Jimmy Garoppolo (After a series of trades, pick acquired for Jimmy G ended up turning into Damien Harris)
2013 - Drafted Jamie Collins and Aaron Dobson
2012 - Drafted Tavon Wilson
2011 - Drafted Ras-I Dowling and Shane Vereen
2010 - Drafted Rob Gronkowski, Jermaine Cunningham, and Brandon Spikes

It really boggles the mind that with that spotty draft resume they went to so many Super Bowls.

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37 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Their recent drafts have been less than stellar, especially in the early rounds.

Obviously QB is their biggest need and most impactful question mark. I don't love the talk that Cam may return. Sure, I agree with all the reasons and explanations as to why things didn't work out (new team, no offseason, limited practice, complex playbook, COVID, injuries to other players, etc.). That being said, I think Newton can't be relied on when he needs to be, has shoulder issues, at times can't throw more than 10 yards, and is no longer close to the player he once was. His biggest contribution last year was he played for peanuts. Bill likes him, and that is a microcosm as to how they ended up in the situation they are in. Guys that are hardworking, coming off injuries, and cheap doesn't mean they are talented and productive.

When you look at their first round picks in recent years . . .

2020 - Traded out of the first round (Turned into Kyle Duggar)
2019 - Took N'Keal Harry at 1.32
2018 - Took Isaiah Wynn at 1.23 and Sony Michel at 1.31
2017 - Traded for Brandin Cooks (Who turned into the pick used on Wynn)
2016 - Pick forfeited due to Deflategate
2015 - Selected Malcolm Brown at 1.32
2014 - Picked Dominique Easley at 1.29
2013 - Traded out of first round (Turned into Jamie Collins and Logan Ryan)
2012 - Hit on both Chandler Jones at 1.21 and Dont'a Hightower at 1.25
2011 - Picked Nate Solder at 1.17
2010 - Moved down a few spots and took Devin McCourty at 1.27

They clearly had much better results from 2010-2013 than they did after that. Which is why when people hem and haw about trading draft picks to move up and draft a legit QB prospect I ask why are they so concerned? They haven't done great in recent drafts and the picks have been mostly wasted picks.

Unfortunately, their second round picks haven't done a heck of a lot either . . .

2020 - Traded pick for Mohamed Sanu
2019 - Traded up to draft Joejuan Williams
2018 - Drafted Duke Dawson
2017 - Traded pick for Kony Ealy
2016 - Drafted Cyrus Jones
2015 - Drafted Jordan Richards
2014 - Drafted Jimmy Garoppolo (After a series of trades, pick acquired for Jimmy G ended up turning into Damien Harris)
2013 - Drafted Jamie Collins and Aaron Dobson
2012 - Drafted Tavon Wilson
2011 - Drafted Ras-I Dowling and Shane Vereen
2010 - Drafted Rob Gronkowski, Jermaine Cunningham, and Brandon Spikes

It really boggles the mind that with that spotty draft resume they went to so many Super Bowls.

The thing that makes zero sense to me is how they can be so good at digging up UDFA's but have issues early in the draft...as for Cam, he is absolutely awful, if they bring him back as a starter they are gonna feel the full wrath of Patriot Nation as the season will be over before it begins...it's too he is so bad on the field because everything else about him was great...I fully believe BB stayed loyal to him because it was a calming influence with the team...there is no doubt Cam is truly respected by his teammates and one of the big reasons, that despite a real rocky season there were no locker-room issues with them last year...that being said he can not ever be under center from them again. 

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5 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

At this point, I would be happy with trading Harry and a 4th to get back a 6th.

How much different would this team look with Metcalf, AJB, Deebo or McLaurin...this is truly one of the worst picks of the BB era, the kid shows nothing...I am 100% convinced that they looked at the wrong tape from ASU and were watching Aiyuk instead of Harry when they were scouting him.

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Furthering a little deeper dive into the NE draft situation since 2010 . . . I looked at each year's draft class separately, only looking at Career AV for each individual draft class. Here are the draft picks from each class and how they compared to the player's in that particular draft. Here were the players that ranked in the Top 100 in their class to date based on Career AV (out of 256 in a draft).

				AV Rank	Pick#
2020	Michael Onwenu		T-19	182
	Kyle Duggar		T-65	37
	Anfernee Jennings	T-65	87
	Justin Herron		T-65	195
2019	Chase Winovich		T-45	77
	Byron Cowart		T-54	159
	Damien Harris		T-86	87
	Jake Bailey		T-86	163
2018	Sony Michel		T-39	32
	Ja'Whaun Bentley	T-56	143
	Isaiah Wynn		T-95	23
2017	Deatrich Wise		T-60	131
2016	Joe Thuney		12	78
	Elandon Roberts		T-42	214
	Jacoby Brissett		T-49	91
	Ted Karras		T-62	221
	Kamu Griguer-Hill	T-95	208
2015	Malcolm Brown		T-18	32
	Shaq Mason		T-18	131
	Trey Flowers		T-36	101
	Darryl Roberts		T-98	247
2014	James White		T-37	130
	Jimmy Garoppolo		T-54	62
	Cameron Fleming		T-65	140
2013	Jamie Collins		7	52
	Logan Ryan		T-32	83
	Duron Harmon		65	91
2012	Chandler Jones		12	21
	Don’t'a Hightower	T-16	25
	Tavon Wilson		T-79	48
2011	Nate Solder		14	17
	Marcus Cannon		T-29	138
	Shane Vereen		T-60	56
	Stevan Ridley		T-60	73
2010	Rob Gronkowski		T-6	42
	Devin McCourty		13	27
	Ted Larsen		46	205
	Brandon Spikes		T-69	62
	Aaron Hernandez		T-72	113

Teams would be expected to have 3 Top 100 players per draft if they kept and made all their picks. Given that I covered 11 seasons, that would mean about 33 players in total. NE being who they are, they actually made 40 picks in the Top 100 (and forfeited two others) by trading a lot. They ended up with 39 players in their collective list of Top 100 players in their individual drafts.

HOWEVER, of their 40 picks they made in the Top 100, only 22 of them ranked in the Top 100 (55%) . . . meaning 45% of their Top 100 picks DID NOT rank in the Top 100. I have no basis for comparison, but I am going to take a guess and say that is probably lower than average. They had 9 players make the Top 100 that were drafted 150th or later (which I would guess is likely better than average) . . . with 8 of those in the last 6 draft classes.

I find it interesting that Malcolm Brown was shown the door pretty early on, yet performed well enough after he left to rank 18th in the 2015th class. Some drafts obviously are a lot stronger or weaker than others. EXHIBIT A is Gronk ranking 6th in his class while Jamie Collins ranks 7th in his.

I will add a full league comparison and analysis to my I'm-bored-and-the-weather-is-terrible-today-so-why-not-do-this list.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Furthering a little deeper dive into the NE draft situation since 2010 . . . I looked at each year's draft class separately, only looking at Career AV for each individual draft class. Here are the draft picks from each class and how they compared to the player's in that particular draft. Here were the players that ranked in the Top 100 in their class to date based on Career AV (out of 256 in a draft).


				AV Rank	Pick#
2020	Michael Onwenu		T-19	182
	Kyle Duggar		T-65	37
	Anfernee Jennings	T-65	87
	Justin Herron		T-65	195
2019	Chase Winovich		T-45	77
	Byron Cowart		T-54	159
	Damien Harris		T-86	87
	Jake Bailey		T-86	163
2018	Sony Michel		T-39	32
	Ja'Whaun Bentley	T-56	143
	Isaiah Wynn		T-95	23
2017	Deatrich Wise		T-60	131
2016	Joe Thuney		12	78
	Elandon Roberts		T-42	214
	Jacoby Brissett		T-49	91
	Ted Karras		T-62	221
	Kamu Griguer-Hill	T-95	208
2015	Malcolm Brown		T-18	32
	Shaq Mason		T-18	131
	Trey Flowers		T-36	101
	Darryl Roberts		T-98	247
2014	James White		T-37	130
	Jimmy Garoppolo		T-54	62
	Cameron Fleming		T-65	140
2013	Jamie Collins		7	52
	Logan Ryan		T-32	83
	Duron Harmon		65	91
2012	Chandler Jones		12	21
	Don’t'a Hightower	T-16	25
	Tavon Wilson		T-79	48
2011	Nate Solder		14	17
	Marcus Cannon		T-29	138
	Shane Vereen		T-60	56
	Stevan Ridley		T-60	73
2010	Rob Gronkowski		T-6	42
	Devin McCourty		13	27
	Ted Larsen		46	205
	Brandon Spikes		T-69	62
	Aaron Hernandez		T-72	113

Teams would be expected to have 3 Top 100 players per draft if they kept and made all their picks. Given that I covered 11 seasons, that would mean about 33 players in total. NE being who they are, they actually made 40 picks in the Top 100 (and forfeited two others) by trading a lot. They ended up with 39 players in their collective list of Top 100 players in their individual drafts.

HOWEVER, of their 40 picks they made in the Top 100, only 22 of them ranked in the Top 100 (55%) . . . meaning 45% of their Top 100 picks DID NOT rank in the Top 100. I have no basis for comparison, but I am going to take a guess and say that is probably lower than average. They had 9 players make the Top 100 that were drafted 150th or later (which I would guess is likely better than average) . . . with 8 of those in the last 6 draft classes.

I find it interesting that Malcolm Brown was shown the door pretty early on, yet performed well enough after he left to rank 18th in the 2015th class. Some drafts obviously are a lot stronger or weaker than others. EXHIBIT A is Gronk ranking 6th in his class while Jamie Collins ranks 7th in his.

I will add a full league comparison and analysis to my I'm-bored-and-the-weather-is-terrible-today-so-why-not-do-this list.

 

 

Nice here today. 🤪

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In other news, the Pats (who already had their own third round pick taken away for the Bengals sideline filming fiasco) were awarded 3rd and 4th round compensatory picks. However, they were expected to receive another 4th round pick (which they did not receive). Part of that may be due to the new rule that awards teams 3rd round compensatory picks for losing a minority staff member that became a head coach of GM at another franchise. There were 5 such picks awarded this year.

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