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Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter captain_amazing
- Start date
A half eaten bag of peanuts? We could give him a decent contract. 14 million with incentives.
NorrisB
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
With multiple suitors, the only way to get him will be by trade. NE only has $11M in cap space. Jimmy carries a $25M cap hit. Teams have to be able to take on a player and be under the cap. So they would need to clear the cap room first (and still have room for rookie picks). Short of that, they would need Garopollo to waive his no trade clause and tear up his contract with the Niners to a much lower number before he could be traded. What are the chances of that happening?A half eaten bag of peanuts? We could give him a decent contract. 14 million with incentives.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Schefter doubling down. Saying SF are telling him Jimmy is their guy this year and he’s not going anywhere. Could the Niners be yanking his chain? Sure. Could they change their mind? Sure. But they would need someone to start the season as their starter or at the very least have an experienced starter on the roster.
Boston
Footballguy
Since they are drafting a high-end rookie and he is a short-timer in in San Fran if this helps him go where wants to be there is a good chance he plays ball with his contract but by no means is he going to sign a cut-rate deal, it will still be real money...on the flip side as you point out I gotta believe the Niners don’t deal him unless they can bring in another solid bridge veteran (or keep Jimmy G for one more year), they are too good to be put in that position.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
We disagree here. I think Darnold's ceiling is higher than that of Tannehill or Josh Allen, and he's been squandered to date in the disfunction of the Jets organization. Salah is a good addition for them.
Boston
Footballguy
I am far more sold on Jones than Trask but if the Pats are sold on Trask it would appear he would be far more easy to obtain as he almost certainly will be there at #15...the other QB some like in the "second tier" is Mond from Texas A&M who doesn't do too much for me...overall I want the Pats to add two QBs...whether it is Jimmy G and a draft pick, a high pick and a vet like Minshew or a high draft pick and another lower one like Book or the kid from Cinncinati they need to get this position figured out this year...they have done a good job (on paper at least) reloading and if they can get competent QB play they could be a dangerous team.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
His best left the Bills in the Chief's dust in the playoffs.
Josh Allen? Did you see the stats he put up last year?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I am starting to get less convinced NE will be willing to invest what it takes to move up to #4 to ensure they get the 4th QB off the board while also outbidding multiple other suitors. And I am also inclined to think that a team behind them will want the #15 pick. So at this particular moment I see them trading down in the first round (but staying in the first round) while adding a second this year and a third next year. Then they use the first rounder on a tackle and a second rounder on Trask. I think that is a better plan than trading for Garoppolo, but that is certainly open for debate.
That being said, I haven't seen SF linked to Fields (who I like . . . especially over Lance and Jones). So as a fan I would love it if they swung for the fences. But as an historian, I would say the chances of hitting pay dirt on the 4th QB in a class isn't great. As we all know, taking a QB in the first round is a 50/50 proposition at best. But now multiply that times 3 because it would take 2 extra firsts to get up high enough to draft one. It's like praying for an inside straight on the river when two of the four cards neded were already folded by other players at the table.
That's my morning thought of the moment anyway.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I wonder what the odds are that NONE of the following are cut after draft day?
JG, Darnold, Tua, Ryan.
A related question: who would the Patriots be competing with if any/all are trade candidates?
JG, Darnold, Tua, Ryan.
A related question: who would the Patriots be competing with if any/all are trade candidates?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Curran wrote an article and had discussion on NE playing the waiting game again this year like they did last year and a QB will materialize after all the music stops (post free agency, post trades, post draft, post market correction after draft, etc.). By then there won’t be any openings and there won’t be any competition for NE. The problem with that strategy is you get the last possible QB to be your QB. Generally speaking, it’s hard to be a true contender shopping in the QB discount bin.
As for you question, I see SF, MIA, and ATL keeping who they have this year. And someone will trade for Darnold. But there could be someone like Bridgewater as one of the leftovers.
I think ATL will get a king’s ransom and will move down. DEN, CAR, and CHI could easily be candidates to move up. I also think if Watson looks like he might be in a better place in a month or two that maybe NE makes a run at him once teams are pretty much set at QB. I don’t think that will happen, but crazier things have happened (albeit not many).
I thought this was interesting. They are saying Patricia has been part of some negotiations this season in addition to signing some free agent contracts. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/28/matt-patricia-makes-his-mark-for-the-patriots-in-free-agency/
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think this is likely. I think Atlanta is closer to being a good team than people think. They’ve had a quiet offseason but efficient. They’re in a prime spot to trade back. If they were moving on from Ryan they would have traded him when there was a market for qbs. They were winning a lot of games last year that they simply blew leads in. No reason to drop jimmy g even if they draft a qb, especially if it’s trey lance, who probably needs a year to acclimate. Maybe the jets drop darnold, but there’s probably some team that would give something for him, and they may just keep him because 17 game season will require a competent backup.
I don’t know why you’d think Tua would be released. Maybe that was written before they traded that pick?
Pats trade competition? I don’t know, most teams seem settled at qb for this year, right? Bears probably should, but they’re making all sorts of wacky moves. I think a handful of teams are content with a stopgap starter and hope to maybe land a 2nd tier developmental guy for this year. Washington could make a move I suppose, but seems like they see a window with that defense.
Spike
Footballguy
Do we know what they are estimated to pay for their rookies (with the current slotting of their picks)?
Spike
Footballguy
Just tossing this out there. This is my speculation - I didn't hear it anywhere.
But if the 49ers take a project QB at 1.03 (like Trey Lance) as opposed to someone more ready to play right off (like Mac Jones), could it be possible the Patriots trade Cam and their 2nd this year for Jimmy G? I just cannot see Belichick trading a 1st for Jimmy G. Not saying he won't - just saying I cannot see it.
I really CAN see the 49ers wanting to keep Jimmy G this year if they draft Lance to give him a good amount of time, even up to the whole 2021 season, to come up-to-speed with the NFL; on the other hand, if they draft Jones, Cam could be there as a "let's start him for a few games" sort of QB for the 49ers. Cam IS more in line with the running/movement QB I believe the 49ers are set up for.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
With the league moving to a 17 game schedule, for some reason, that gave them another $700K in cap space to get them to $12.6M.
Accounting for rookies and the cap gets a bit murky.
If they use them all (they won't) at the positions that they are currently slotted . . . it would cost them $4.8M. But only the Top 51 contracts and dead money count against the cap, so it is estimated the draft picks would only count $3.3M against the cap.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't see any way NE would trade a first for Garoppolo. A first round rookie could be had for cheap dollars for 5 seasons. Jimmy G. would cost them $51M for only 2 seasons of control (unless they re-did his contract). As already mentioned, the logistics of getting him under the cap would be extremely tough and would require both Jimmy and the 49ers to do things on their end that would not help them at all in able to get Garoppolo into a Patriots uniform.
Moving Cam in the deal is mostly irrelevant to getting a deal done. The Niners could have shown interest in signing Newton as a free agency signing and didn't. I am sure if there was a better offer on the horizon that Cam would have taken it, but he instead took a backup level contract with incentives he mostly will never see unless he plays like 2015 and the Pats win the SB. The other issue for Newton is he strikes me as the type that needs a lot of time to get to know a playbook and requires a lot of practice time to learn what he needs to do. That was an issue in NE. He doesn't strike me as the cerebral type. I am not sure SF would pick him as the guy to come in and do a crash course and deep dive into their playbook to start at the beginning of the season. In fact, he'd probably be one of the last guys I would pick to do that.
One of the possible trade scenarios had Gilmore and a lower pick going to SF for Garoppolo, but it's looking more like Gilmore sticks around. Even that trade wouldn't free up enough money to bring back Garoppolo, as NE would be on the hook for $7.6M against the cap as soon as he is off the Patriots roster. Given that he is actually slotted as a $15M cap charge this year, they would actual net $7.3M in cap savings . . . but that only gets them about halfway to the cap space needed to absorb Garoppolo onto their 2021 books.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Oh . . . forgot to calculate for Chung's retirement. He can help out NE some by refusing something like $900,000 in bonuses. He has some roster bonuses due (technically he is still on their roster for now). If he retires after 6/1, then NE will have to take a $4.3M cap charge this year and a $3.6 million cap charge for 2022. I assume if the bonuses come off the books, they would only have to take a $3.4 million cap hit for 2021 instead of $4.3M. Bottom line, they have less cap space available than I posted.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Because he retired. He has no intention to play this year, yet he is still on the books and slated to get $900,000 for being on the roster. When the paperwork gets filed impacts the salary cap for this year and next year, so he could be nice and help them out and not take the money.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Isn't that kind of "nice" reserved for quarterbacks and superstars who have already banked 9 figures? I only ask because other than Drew Brees I don't recall any player being this "nice". Asking from ignorance.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I wish I had an informed answer to give you but all I can say is I don’t know either. NE may have decided not to fight giving him the money or essentially felt he earned it. Similarly, I believe they would be in the right to demand a portion of his signing bonus returned and credited to them and I have not seen anything written about that either.
Historically I think players retiring have had different wrinkles from player to player. Andrew Luck was gifted all he was due from the Colts and he kept all his signing bonus money. I don’t think there is a uniform outcome for these situations.
The Patriots may have already paid Chung his bonuses and could have moved on and don’t care. It’s not a ton of money and won’t impact their cap total all that much. Wish I could provide a better answer, but that’s all I’ve got.
What use would that be for them. Newton would need learn system. They could just sign back up to cheap money. I would guess they would want different player/s and or picks.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
That part is obvious. But from a trade value perspective, Cam couldn't find a team last year in free agency and wasn't going to get much consideration this year either (and thus opted to re-sign with NE). He was essentially a street free agent. The Niners are said to want a first round pick plus potentially more in return for Newton. That was the part that I chuckled at . . . trading a guy that 31 teams passed on twice for what the other team feels is a guy worth a first round pick for.
Speaking of diamond in rough, this safety Hufanga looks great. He’s projected as mid to late third rounder. Like see him get drafted by the Pats. https://youtu.be/HYAZGP2HCEo
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I was going to post "what are the chances a QB from the Missouri Valley Conference makes the HOF?" But I forgot about Kurt Warner (Northern Iowa).
Here is a decent summary for draftable QBs outside the top 5... https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/2021-nfl-draft-patriots-best-quarterback-options-outside-first-round
If it is likely Pats don’t trade up and likely they don’t trade for Jimmy G... then it must be likely one of the guys in that article comes to New England.
If it is likely Pats don’t trade up and likely they don’t trade for Jimmy G... then it must be likely one of the guys in that article comes to New England.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I heard the perfect summary of the non Top 5 QBs on a podcast with Evan Lazar as a guest. They are all a bunch of Jarrett Stidham's. They all have limitations, warts, and blemishes and have a long way to go to become competent NFL QBs. I forgot whose podcast he was on, but the point was if they DON'T get one of the Top 5 (Top 4 really, as they didn't feel Jones was in the same class as the others), then they are just wasting a pick. Essentially, Stidham with two years in the system would be more productive than starting over with another project that would have to be developed and would be where Stidham is now in two years.
That made sense to me, as they suggested the likely career path for the Day 2 and 3 guys in this class was as NFL backups. Lazar is not just some blowhard talking head media type . . . he actually watched tape on all the QBs and posted his analysis of all of them.
His opinion was that if they can't swing a trade up for one of the main rookies, they would be better off using their picks to continue to build up the talent and depth on the roster and either see who might become available between the draft and training camp as a better stop gap for this year and / or try again next year when there might be more cuts / free agents, trade options, or guys available in the draft. As for talk that next year's draft is said to be a week crop of QBs, remember that at the start of this season, Wilson and Jones were not slated to be hot commodities like they are now . . . so there could be guys that emerge.
Again, it seemed logical to me to see if maybe Watson, Ryan, Garoppolo, Bridgewater, etc. might become available if they come up short on the Big 4/5 rookies. Maybe they have a higher grade on one of the Day 2/3 QBs and feel they can work with one of them, but I am not convinced after so many QBs have come off the board that there will be a legit QB with franchise upside still available. The only QBs not named Brady that were drafted as the 6th QB or later in the last 20 drafts that amounted to much of anything were Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Kirk Cousins. Maybe there is a guy this year like one of them, but I think the chances are slim.
I don’t want them to be passive and not try drafting any QBs. It is what they did last season and didn’t work. Sure Newton fell to them in free agency. But he turned out not to be that great of a passer. Problem is that the Pats had already seen Stidham and didn’t start him even when Newton was out. He got mop up duty. He evidently isn’t the answer if they never trusted to play him despite Newton being bad down the stretch. So banking on Stidham seems like a blunder. Not addressing the QB position was an issue last season. I’d rather them take a shot on someone in the draft. They have plenty of picks to package together to trade up. Because of the free agency they had, there are not a lot of immediate needs if any if you can retain JC Jackson and Stephon Gilmore. So the Pats have to draft a QB somehow.
Boston
Footballguy
They absolutely need to upgrade their QB position this offseason, if not you have a ceiling on this season and are right back in the same spot next year (although it's probably worst because they should have a better record this year with all the FA signings)...we dealt with this nonsense last year and it did not work...neither Cam or Stidham are the answer and if there is not an upgrade than this franchise can make as many FA signings as they want or draft as many players as they want but they will not be a serious contender for a championship.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
First let me say that I agree with you . . . that being said, if the Top 5 rookie QBs are off the board, what other options are there? What else would would want them to do? We are 99% certain QBs will go 1-2-3 in the draft. Let's say the Falcons keep their pick and draft QB4. At that point, there is one QB left and plenty of teams in the market for a QB. NE may not have a shot at one of the main rookies, even if they want to move up.
There really are no viable options as free agents (Alex Smith)? Trading for Watson or Wilson is never going to happen. Say the 49ers keep Jimmy and other teams aren't willing to part with the veteran guys they are upgrading from. Is Sam Darnold an upgrade if he is available? Gardner Minshew? Nick Foles? Josh Rosen?
Like I mentioned earlier, some folks are grading out the Day 2/3 draft options in the same range as Stidham. Sure, I agree that Stidham isn't great, but any of the other guys will take time to stand any chance of developing (Trask, Neuman, Mond, Mills, etc.).
Bottom line, other than waving a magic wand, there's a chance they could get shut out at having a legit QB upgrade this season. I wouldn't be happy with that outcome either, but I am not sure there are guys that are true upgrades available. Maybe they get lucky and can move up in the draft to snag someone. Maybe they can get a veteran in somehow. We'll have to see how things go, but there is a decent chance they will end up like they were last year (trying to find a QB from whomever is leftover).
Boston
Footballguy
My answer is very blunt...anyone but Cam...he is horrible and it is a lost season with him...if you can't get a top 5 rookie or Jimmy G I would definitely take Darnold but I don't see the Jets dealing him to the Pats...I think you could have a viable passing game with Minshew and if you are going to have a D-first/grind it out team I would much rather have Alex Smith or Foles...worst case is you add one of them to Cam and after that I would draft two second-tier rookies and pray to the football Gods you get lucky...I love what they have done this off-season but would hate for it to be all for nothing because you have horrible QB play.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I am sure they have done a deep dive into the incoming rookies and kept tabs on everyone in the league already. But I don’t get the sense they will move heaven and earth to obtain a QB. Maybe they would trade a future first or a couple of lower picks. But I don’t see BB parting with two firsts and a 3rd to move up 10 or 11 spots. I’d love if ATL took a QB, got Ryan to rework his deal, and then shipped him to the Pats.
Just came out from Giardi says 49ers want a first round pick for Jimmy. Maybe this is a good option. But he’d probably need to be restructured. He might be willing to restructure contract since he’s looking at being phased out in SF.
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Boston
Footballguy
Until they address the QB they are running in-place...I get it about not mortgaging the future but there is no future until this position gets settled...if they make the move you said and hit on it that deal is a steal and allows the franchise to move forward...at some point you gotta rip the band-aid off because another sixth round pick is not gonna solve this issue.
Boston
Footballguy
They know him as well as anyone...if they think he can be a legit starter I would do it...I don't care about this overpay nonsense, if you think he is a quality starter in their system this maybe the least you have to give up to get this position settled.
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