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Don't sleep on Donte Moncrief: Draft Day steal


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For the Steelers, I'd say the fact that Ben keeps going to him.

Buy Low

Sure is a lot of Landry vs Diggs discussion in a Moncrief thread.

If the NFL passes on him in the 40-45 picks, there's a significant ding in his game somewhere (hands?). They don't pass on guys with his measurables otherwise.

meh tape this year. a lot of body catching, no my ball mentality, measureables don't show up on tape, just not much edge to his game. 2012 tape looks every bit the part of a first round pick with his measureables. will be interesting to see where he goes

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If the NFL passes on him in the 40-45 picks, there's a significant ding in his game somewhere (hands?). They don't pass on guys with his measurables otherwise.

meh tape this year. a lot of body catching, no my ball mentality, measureables don't show up on tape, just not much edge to his game. 2012 tape looks every bit the part of a first round pick with his measureables. will be interesting to see where he goes
yep, very underwhelming season on the field.
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If the NFL passes on him in the 40-45 picks, there's a significant ding in his game somewhere (hands?). They don't pass on guys with his measurables otherwise.

meh tape this year. a lot of body catching, no my ball mentality, measureables don't show up on tape, just not much edge to his game. 2012 tape looks every bit the part of a first round pick with his measureables. will be interesting to see where he goes

I was shocked with the numbers he put up at the combine. I was never all that impressed with him and have discussed it in other threads. Definitely going to be watching to see what the NFL is thinking on him with bated breath.

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Jonathan Baldwin all over again IMO. Great measurables that don't show up on the field. He makes playing WR harder than it should be.

Edited by jurb26
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I don't watch film at all, but I took a peek at Moncrief after the combine since I already owned him in some devy leagues. He seems to cradle the ball a lot, but the hands seemed to be there when the ball was away from his body. IMO you can't fix hands, so it'll be interesting to see how it's interpreted by the NFL.

Edited by wdcrob
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Jonathan Baldwin all over again IMO. Great measurables that don't show up on the field. He makes playing WR harder than it should be.

He moves better than Baldwin. Moncrief is a better version of Rueben Randle.

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He doesn't remind me of Randle at all. Randle was all instincts. Suspect measurables, but high football IQ and very fluid. Punt returner. Very slippery after the catch. Moncrief is the opposite type of player. Monster measurables. Spotty performance on the field. He wasn't bad in college. He just wasn't consistently great. I've had him in a dev league for the past year so I was following his progress every week. He had some big games and some games where he disappeared. He would come up with a big play here and there, but he wasn't a guy who controlled games in college like Blackmon or Crabtree.

I don't think he will qualify as a sleeper after the NFL draft because I think there's a good chance that someone will roll the dice on him in the first 40-60 picks. There are usually a couple guys in most FF leagues who draft primarily on height/weight/speed, so there will be audience for him. I don't really see him being consistent enough as a possession receiver right now to be a slam dunk projection as a #1 NFL WR, but I think he at least has the potential to become a false #1 like Torrey Smith or Mike Wallace. His vertical game is undeniable. Very dangerous on deep routes because of his speed. Inconsistent hands, but capable of making tough catches on contested balls. A threat after the catch because of his size/speed. If he can polish the edges, he has a high ceiling. Even if he remains what he was in college, he could be a 1000 yard WR as either a false #1 who's force fed the ball or a strong #2 where he isn't asked to do all the gritty stuff.

Edited by EBF
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I don't watch film at all, but I took a peek at Moncrief after the combine since I already owned him in some devy leagues. He seems to cradle the ball a lot, but the hands seemed to be there when the ball was away from his body. IMO you can't fix hands, so it'll be interesting to see how it's interpreted by the NFL.

Wouldnt say you can't fix hands but they are probably the top thing i look for in a receiver.

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How often do guys with great measurables and little production despite opportunity make it big without good reasons for their lack of productivity?

FWIW his sophomore and junior seasons in college:

2013 - 13 games, 59 catches, 938 yards, 6 TDs

2012 - 13 games, 66 catches, 979 yards, 10 TDs

Over that two year span he averaged 4.8 catches, 73.7 yards, 0.62 TDs per game.

Over a 16 game NFL season that equates to about 77 catches, 1180 yards, and 10 TDs.

That's not a huge negative in my mind. Ole Miss threw a lot and that probably helped pad his numbers, but they also played in a tough conference and had a pathetic QB.

Edited by EBF
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Moncrief was overshadowed last year by a guy who has the hands to be the next Fitzgerald so I'm discounting the fact he wasn't the leading receiver. However, he did lead the team his first two years and actually improved his YPC to a very good 15.9 (career 15.2). His career numbers are very close to AJ Green's.

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How often do guys with great measurables and little production despite opportunity make it big without good reasons for their lack of productivity?

FWIW his sophomore and junior seasons in college:

2013 - 13 games, 59 catches, 938 yards, 6 TDs

2012 - 13 games, 66 catches, 979 yards, 10 TDs

Over that two year span he averaged 4.8 catches, 73.7 yards, 0.62 TDs per game.

Over a 16 game NFL season that equates to about 77 catches, 1180 yards, and 10 TDs.

That's not a huge negative in my mind. Ole Miss threw a lot and that probably helped pad his numbers, but they also played in a tough conference and had a pathetic QB.

the QB was terrible; HS level

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By the numbers, he looks like a poor man's Julio Jones. Similar size, slightly less speed/explosiveness, slightly worse college stats. Apparently the resemblance isn't there on tape, or he would be projected to go much earlier.

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How often do guys with great measurables and little production despite opportunity make it big without good reasons for their lack of productivity?

It happens often. "Similar" H/W/S guys with limited production, for one reason or another, don't make it every year. From a similar production standpoint, Marcus Davis and Mark Harrison from last year come to mind, but they weren't even selected. Josh Morgan, Jerry Porter, Will Franklin and Kelley Washington are others that I recall that were drafted fairly high. Though not as explosive, Nick Toon is another higher profile guy that hasn't made much noise with similar production and physical metrics to Moncrief.

On the flip side, there have been a ton of guys with a similar athletic profile and crazy NCAA production that didn't make it either.....Kelley Washington, Greg Little, Jon Baldwin, Johnnie Morant, Stephen Hill, Tyrone Calico, Justin McCareins, Dez White, Chad Jackson and DHB were all drafted early.

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How often do guys with great measurables and little production despite opportunity make it big without good reasons for their lack of productivity?

It happens often. "Similar" H/W/S guys with limited production, for one reason or another, don't make it every year. From a similar production standpoint, Marcus Davis and Mark Harrison from last year come to mind, but they weren't even selected. Josh Morgan, Jerry Porter, Will Franklin and Kelley Washington are others that I recall that were drafted fairly high. Though not as explosive, Nick Toon is another higher profile guy that hasn't made much noise with similar production and physical metrics to Moncrief.

On the flip side, there have been a ton of guys with a similar athletic profile and crazy NCAA production that didn't make it either.....Kelley Washington, Greg Little, Jon Baldwin, Johnnie Morant, Stephen Hill, Tyrone Calico, Justin McCareins, Dez White, Chad Jackson and DHB were all drafted early.

Of course players bust. Maybe it's selective memory but it seems every time we find a player to fall in love with due to his speed / size etc. but he didn't produce well on the field, he ends up disappointing. None of those guys you mention have made it big, though a few had moments. Calico is a prime example of a guy with an apparent skill set but never put it together. In college he did not have "crazy NCAA production" but was drafted high as people (myself included) excused his stats due to his QB and thought they had a great sleeper WR, he was supposed to be another TO.

Moncrief actually produced better than Calico but otherwise they seem a reasonable comparison. Tyrone was slightly faster.

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Moncrief was overshadowed last year by a guy who has the hands to be the next Fitzgerald so I'm discounting the fact he wasn't the leading receiver. However, he did lead the team his first two years and actually improved his YPC to a very good 15.9 (career 15.2). His career numbers are very close to AJ Green's.

While this is undoubtedly true, it makes me cringe. I hope people don't get confused... Moncrief Green.

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late 1st early 2nd, what u go to lose

a better wr? One of the qb's? A stud te? An under valued rb?

I like him as a dice roll late 2nd if he slips, but this clas is too deep to take him before then. If he isn't there get another h/w/s guy like Coleman or Bryant.

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Moncrief was overshadowed last year by a guy who has the hands to be the next Fitzgerald so I'm discounting the fact he wasn't the leading receiver. However, he did lead the team his first two years and actually improved his YPC to a very good 15.9 (career 15.2). His career numbers are very close to AJ Green's.

While this is undoubtedly true, it makes me cringe. I hope people don't get confused... Moncrief Green.

Hopefully it didn't come across that way, simply meant that he didn't have a lack of production. Could it have been better, especially considering how he tested at the combine? Absolutely IMO.

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How often do guys with great measurables and little production despite opportunity make it big without good reasons for their lack of productivity?

FWIW his sophomore and junior seasons in college:

2013 - 13 games, 59 catches, 938 yards, 6 TDs

2012 - 13 games, 66 catches, 979 yards, 10 TDs

Over that two year span he averaged 4.8 catches, 73.7 yards, 0.62 TDs per game.

Over a 16 game NFL season that equates to about 77 catches, 1180 yards, and 10 TDs.

That's not a huge negative in my mind. Ole Miss threw a lot and that probably helped pad his numbers, but they also played in a tough conference and had a pathetic QB.

the QB was terrible; HS level

This part always interests me, not that DM is another Calvin but that part was similar in college.

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2014 Pro Days: Donte Moncrief highlights Ole Miss workout

By Derek Harper | The Sports Xchange/CBSSports.com
March 3, 2014 7:08 pm ET

Excerpt:

Wide receiver Donte Moncrief stood on the 4.40-second 40-yard dash he was credited with at the Scouting Combine, but took part in positional drills at Ole Miss' pro day Monday. The physically gifted big-play receiver also measured in at 6-feet-2 3/8 and 219 pounds, two pounds lighter than in Indianapolis.

Moncrief posted excellent agility test numbers at the combine, including a 39.5-inch vertical jump and 132.0-inch broad jump. He is currently the No. 67 overall prospect according to NFLDraftScout.com ratings, and No. 11 among wide receivers, projected as a second- to third-round pick.

Questions remain about the strength of his route-running, which he attempted to address by going through drills Monday. While NFL.com reported representatives from only a half-dozen teams were on hand for the workout with the Rebels lacking any other sure-fire draft picks among the 18 total prospects to work out, the school said at least 25 representatives from 22 different NFL teams were at Ole Miss' Manning Center.

Moncrief's workout is important as the junior jockeys for position with the likes of Vanderbilt's Jordan Matthews, Colorado's Paul Richardson, LSU's Jarvis Landry, Clemson's Martavis Bryant and South Carolina's Bruce Ellington - who are all rated between No. 55 and 99 by NFLDraftScout.com.

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How often do guys with great measurables and little production despite opportunity make it big without good reasons for their lack of productivity?

It happens often. "Similar" H/W/S guys with limited production, for one reason or another, don't make it every year. From a similar production standpoint, Marcus Davis and Mark Harrison from last year come to mind, but they weren't even selected. Josh Morgan, Jerry Porter, Will Franklin and Kelley Washington are others that I recall that were drafted fairly high. Though not as explosive, Nick Toon is another higher profile guy that hasn't made much noise with similar production and physical metrics to Moncrief.

On the flip side, there have been a ton of guys with a similar athletic profile and crazy NCAA production that didn't make it either.....Kelley Washington, Greg Little, Jon Baldwin, Johnnie Morant, Stephen Hill, Tyrone Calico, Justin McCareins, Dez White, Chad Jackson and DHB were all drafted early.

Of course players bust. Maybe it's selective memory but it seems every time we find a player to fall in love with due to his speed / size etc. but he didn't produce well on the field, he ends up disappointing. None of those guys you mention have made it big, though a few had moments. Calico is a prime example of a guy with an apparent skill set but never put it together. In college he did not have "crazy NCAA production" but was drafted high as people (myself included) excused his stats due to his QB and thought they had a great sleeper WR, he was supposed to be another TO.

Moncrief actually produced better than Calico but otherwise they seem a reasonable comparison. Tyrone was slightly faster.

Calico had hands of stone.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Rotoworld:

NFL Films' Greg Cosell stated on the Ross Tucker Podcast that he sees "style" similarities between Ole Miss WR Donte Moncrief, and Demaryius Thomas and Josh Gordon on Moncrief's college tape.

Cosell made it clear he wasn't wholeheartedly comparing Moncrief to Thomas and Gordon, but did liken their playing styles. "I really, really like this kid," Cosell said. "He's a big, physical kid who can run." Cosell also hinted he sees Moncrief as talented enough to be a "No. 1" NFL receiver. Moncrief measured 6-foot-2, 221 at February's Scouting Combine. His official forty time was 4.40.
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He'll never have the hip flexibility/elusiveness of Demaryius Thomas, but his sheer size/speed ratio is freaky.

Rare to see a big dude who can go through the gears like this:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combine/0ap2000000334732/2014-Combine-workout-Donte-Moncrief

I don't know if he's ever going to be a great possession guy. I don't see him having the consistency on the chain moving stuff to match guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant, and Brandon Marshall. As a deep threat though, he's an enticing proposition. Turn him loose and he could wreak havoc.

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Cosell seems to be getting lazy with prospect analysis. If you're a big qb with a strong arm he likes you. If you're a big wr that can run he likes you. He needs to stick with guys already in the nfl much like Mayock needs to stick with just prospects, guys are stretched too thin to analyze at the levels they used to.

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I have to agree, a lot of people have their rhetoric and opinion comparing a player in college to an already proven stud is always funny. These type of guys try for big splashes to get reads on whatever site they work. Rotoworld and there blurbs are even funnier. A "big physical kid who can run," thanks for telling us riveting info we cant see ourselves. Don't forget the part where he says "he really really likes him." That is top notch info. Not a fan of Cosell at all.

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I'll take a guy who understands how to play the game over the uber- athlete every time. The NFL is loaded with great athletes. I want the guy with the "my ball" mentality, who understands how to come back for the ball and how to shield with his body, who does the little stuff right like hand catching with his thumbs together above waist level when facing the QB, but switching to little fingers together below the waist or when turned away from the QB. Those are a few of the little things that separate the quality guys.

The saying "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" has been valid for a long time with some players for a reason.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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I'll take a guy who understands how to play the game over the uber- athlete every time. The NFL is loaded with great athletes. I want the guy with the "my ball" mentality, who understands how to come back for the ball and how to shield with his body, who does the little stuff right like hand catching with his thumbs together above waist level when facing the QB, but switching to little fingers together below the waist or when turned away from the QB. Those are a few of the little things that separate the quality guys.

The saying "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" has been valid for a long time with some players for a reason.

:goodposting:

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I'll take a guy who understands how to play the game over the uber- athlete every time. The NFL is loaded with great athletes. I want the guy with the "my ball" mentality, who understands how to come back for the ball and how to shield with his body, who does the little stuff right like hand catching with his thumbs together above waist level when facing the QB, but switching to little fingers together below the waist or when turned away from the QB. Those are a few of the little things that separate the quality guys.

The saying "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" has been valid for a long time with some players for a reason.

I assume you are a Bronco's fan? What was Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas out of college? They were great athletes that needed to be tought the game. You can teach the game, you can't teach athleticism. The real question may be do they have the drive to learn the game.

Look no further than the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks to see a team that drafts for athletisism and believes they can coach up players.

Edited by ImTheScientist
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The NFL really isn't loaded with 220 pound WRs who can run 4.40 and jump out of the gym. There are lots of "good" athletes, but that's another level and those guys don't grow on trees. There's almost nobody out there who combines the speed and the size of Moncrief, so he's in rare company.

I don't think Moncrief is one of the best WRs in this class in terms of intangibles and WR skills. He drops too many balls, isn't particularly elusive, and just doesn't seem to have the "it" factor for working in tight spaces and making things happen. However, he's not as bad as people make him out to be. People talk about him like he's some total workout warrior with zero football skills. I don't think that's very accurate. He wasn't a dominant player in college, but he wasn't bad either. 900+ yards each of his final two seasons in something like 13 games. While he isn't consistent, he has at least flashed the ability to do a lot of the "skill" things that a WR needs to do. I've seen him make leaping catches over defenders, catch the ball away from his frame, run crisp routes to get separation, and contort his body to catch poorly thrown balls. He might not be an A+ from a skill standpoint, but he's not an F either. More like a B or B-. When you combine that with his off the charts physical qualities, it will probably be enough to achieve considerable success at the next level.

I said it earlier in this thread, but I doubt that he has the football skill or athletic skill to become a jack-of-all-trades #1 like VJax, Demaryius, or Marshall. However, I think he compares pretty favorably to guys like Torrey Smith and Mike Wallace who have flawed football skills and even flawed physical skills, but have still been able to make a pretty significant impact because they have physical traits that are hard for defenders to cope with. I think Moncrief might even be better than both of those guys in terms of his overall athleticism/skill combo. So while he doesn't warrant the Demaryius comparisons, he could still end up giving you a nice return on your investment for the late 1st-early 2nd round rookie pick he's likely to cost.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Jonathan Baldwin all over again IMO. Great measurables that don't show up on the field. He makes playing WR harder than it should be.

He feels like Michael Westbrook to me.

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Jonathan Baldwin all over again IMO. Great measurables that don't show up on the field. He makes playing WR harder than it should be.

He feels like Michael Westbrook to me.

he could be the next Baldwin or he could be the next VJax... thats why we play the game.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The NFL really isn't loaded with 220 pound WRs who can run 4.40 and jump out of the gym. There are lots of "good" athletes, but that's another level and those guys don't grow on trees. There's almost nobody out there who combines the speed and the size of Moncrief, so he's in rare company.

I don't think Moncrief is one of the best WRs in this class in terms of intangibles and WR skills. He drops too many balls, isn't particularly elusive, and just doesn't seem to have the "it" factor for working in tight spaces and making things happen. However, he's not as bad as people make him out to be. People talk about him like he's some total workout warrior with zero football skills. I don't think that's very accurate. He wasn't a dominant player in college, but he wasn't bad either. 900+ yards each of his final two seasons in something like 13 games. While he isn't consistent, he has at least flashed the ability to do a lot of the "skill" things that a WR needs to do. I've seen him make leaping catches over defenders, catch the ball away from his frame, run crisp routes to get separation, and contort his body to catch poorly thrown balls. He might not be an A+ from a skill standpoint, but he's not an F either. More like a B or B-. When you combine that with his off the charts physical qualities, it will probably be enough to achieve considerable success at the next level.

I said it earlier in this thread, but I doubt that he has the football skill or athletic skill to become a jack-of-all-trades #1 like VJax, Demaryius, or Marshall. However, I think he compares pretty favorably to guys like Torrey Smith and Mike Wallace who have flawed football skills and even flawed physical skills, but have still been able to make a pretty significant impact because they have physical traits that are hard for defenders to cope with. I think Moncrief might even be better than both of those guys in terms of his overall athleticism/skill combo. So while he doesn't warrant the Demaryius comparisons, he could still end up giving you a nice return on your investment for the late 1st-early 2nd round rookie pick he's likely to cost.

Nice post.

He can't work all over the field, a deep threat only. He doesn't look interested in contact to me. He dances around when it's time to block and he seems to curl up before any hit or just run out of bounds. Maybe that's not much of a knock for a WR, but it turned me off. At best he's Robert Meachem in his early Saints days. Another bigger WR that plays small. His athleticism is worth being in the league. I think he's going to be a let down in the long-run. Maybe he'll be Josh Gordon/Cordarrelle Patterson-like where I underrate his athleticism and he's catching 80 yard slants for a TD every week while I'm here saying 'I don't get it' like a idiot.

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I have the 1.04 and 1.05 dynasty picks... I feel like I either trade both to get 1.01 or I go w Beckham and Moncrief...

I really want moncrief and there's no way he gets back to me (I dont have a 2nd rnd pick) - may be a MAJOR reach all things considered... but when you want a guy, how else do you work it?

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I have the 1.04 and 1.05 dynasty picks... I feel like I either trade both to get 1.01 or I go w Beckham and Moncrief...

I really want moncrief and there's no way he gets back to me (I dont have a 2nd rnd pick) - may be a MAJOR reach all things considered... but when you want a guy, how else do you work it?

take him at 1.05 - don't spend the next ten years going " why did I pass on him for [insert future bust]??"

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I have the 1.04 and 1.05 dynasty picks... I feel like I either trade both to get 1.01 or I go w Beckham and Moncrief...

I really want moncrief and there's no way he gets back to me (I dont have a 2nd rnd pick) - may be a MAJOR reach all things considered... but when you want a guy, how else do you work it?

Trade down to the late 1st and you should still get him.

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I have the 1.04 and 1.05 dynasty picks... I feel like I either trade both to get 1.01 or I go w Beckham and Moncrief...

I really want moncrief and there's no way he gets back to me (I dont have a 2nd rnd pick) - may be a MAJOR reach all things considered... but when you want a guy, how else do you work it?

Trade down to the late 1st and you should still get him.

Can't. I know from a drunken night w leaguemates that there are other guys who want him as well.

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