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Don't sleep on Donte Moncrief: Draft Day steal


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For the Steelers, I'd say the fact that Ben keeps going to him.

Buy Low

Sure is a lot of Landry vs Diggs discussion in a Moncrief thread.

He has passed the eye ball test 2 weeks in a row. Luck looks to him and when he's produced legitimately. Nothing fluky about his TDs.

His TD catches were definitely not flukey and he actually made his catch last week into a TD based on his YAC ability

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You think Moncrief can displace Hilton as WR1 on indy? Even when Hilton comes back healthy?

I am thinking it's possible, and I'm thinking I'm probably stupid for thinking it.

Hilton is boom or bust, and he has bad hands. He's definitely a homerun threat on any given play, but he's not a guy you can consistently rely on to catch a lot of intermediate passes.

I don't think it's crazy to think Moncrief is going to be a more valuable player in PPR leagues.

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You think Moncrief can displace Hilton as WR1 on indy? Even when Hilton comes back healthy?

I am thinking it's possible, and I'm thinking I'm probably stupid for thinking it.

Hilton is boom or bust, and he has bad hands. He's definitely a homerun threat on any given play, but he's not a guy you can consistently rely on to catch a lot of intermediate passes.

I don't think it's crazy to think Moncrief is going to be a more valuable player in PPR leagues.

I remember Hilton's rookie year, there were people saying he had bad hands - there was a drop stat that was very misleading when you actually watched his "drops". I know that offseason there were reports that he was working big time with Harrison on his hands and route running.

This year I know he has 17 targets in 2 games with no drops. Was just reading an article earlier about Ginn with Miami and how his hands are so bad, and they had a chart up listing drops through Week 2. I remember noticing that Moncrief had 1 drop on 13 targets.

I think that "bad hands" label has been shed by Hilton, if it ever was even an issue. I've been able to watch all his snaps this year and he's been fine. So has Moncreif. I still think Hilton holds that #1 for longer than many think, with Moncrief maybe challenging at some point late season, or next year.

*Edited* Just went and checked for last year - Hilton had a drop % of 5.3, which put him near the top. There were 140+ players that had a higher drop % than him. His hands are fine.

Edited by Hoss Style
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Just read Reception Perception. The way Matt Harmon is categorizing him, Moncrief may become a superstar.

I've been gathering Luck's WRs like a squirrel gathering nuts for a few years now. Some WR with size is going to become a super stud with Luck, someday - maybe it's Moncrief.

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Rotoworld:

The Colts have no plans to reduce Donte Moncrief's role.

Moncrief has been the Colts best receiver through two weeks. He's played the same amount of snaps (107) as Andre Johnson, and is expected to remain heavily involved. Moncrief could push Johnson to three-wide sets if his strong play continues. Moncrief is the No. 24 receiver in Rotoworld’s Week 3 rankings.

Source: colts.com

Sep 26 - 5:44 PM

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With Andre Johnson moving like LeRoy Hoard nowadays, hard not to like Moncrief's chances. Johnson may catch a few TD's based on sheer opportunity and his QB but he's not going to catch a lot of balls week in/out.

I don't think Johnson is an upgrade on either 2014 Wayne or Nicks or 2013 DHB. He simply can't move at all anymore. Nothing whatsoever out of his breaks and can't run.

Edited by Craig_MiamiFL
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You think Moncrief can displace Hilton as WR1 on indy? Even when Hilton comes back healthy?

I am thinking it's possible, and I'm thinking I'm probably stupid for thinking it.

Hilton is boom or bust, and he has bad hands. He's definitely a homerun threat on any given play, but he's not a guy you can consistently rely on to catch a lot of intermediate passes.

I don't think it's crazy to think Moncrief is going to be a more valuable player in PPR leagues.

I remember Hilton's rookie year, there were people saying he had bad hands - there was a drop stat that was very misleading when you actually watched his "drops". I know that offseason there were reports that he was working big time with Harrison on his hands and route running.

This year I know he has 17 targets in 2 games with no drops. Was just reading an article earlier about Ginn with Miami and how his hands are so bad, and they had a chart up listing drops through Week 2. I remember noticing that Moncrief had 1 drop on 13 targets.

I think that "bad hands" label has been shed by Hilton, if it ever was even an issue. I've been able to watch all his snaps this year and he's been fine. So has Moncreif. I still think Hilton holds that #1 for longer than many think, with Moncrief maybe challenging at some point late season, or next year.

*Edited* Just went and checked for last year - Hilton had a drop % of 5.3, which put him near the top. There were 140+ players that had a higher drop % than him. His hands are fine.

Looks like you're using Sporting Charts for your stats. Unfortunately "drops" aren't specified as a stat, so it's a bit subjective. I will say that they had him at a 6.7% drop rate in 2012, but Pro Football Focus had him tied for highest drop rate in the league at 16.67.

I guess it depends on who you read and who you believe.

Who would be better - Hilton or Brazil - was the big question when they were rookies. Seeing them both, live, I thought Hilton was the guy to own. However, I still say that Hilton does not have good hands. He is solid on deep routes and can make incredible adjustments on the ball in mid air...but then will drop ball that hits him in the hands on a 5 yard in route.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

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However, I still say that Hilton does not have good hands. He is solid on deep routes and can make incredible adjustments on the ball in mid air...but then will drop ball that hits him in the hands on a 5 yard in route.

He doesn't have what I would consider 'great' hands (someone like Antonio Brown or OB) but they are good, especially when you consider he runs a lot of deep routes with tougher catches.

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Had a somewhat pedestrian day compared to what he has been doing but still caught a TD. This guy is going to be gold. Waiver Wire Pick of the year?

I was only watching Red Zone, but in the looks I saw, even in 2 WR sets, it was Moncrief and TY, not Andre. Luck looks to him in the red zone too. Feeling good about this waiver pick up for sure. Plus I'd assume Luck and the Colts are going to improve....at least I hope so.

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However, I still say that Hilton does not have good hands. He is solid on deep routes and can make incredible adjustments on the ball in mid air...but then will drop ball that hits him in the hands on a 5 yard in route.

He doesn't have what I would consider 'great' hands (someone like Antonio Brown or OB) but they are good, especially when you consider he runs a lot of deep routes with tougher catches.

I think this is closer to reality. And the only year I've ever seen anyone say he had "bad" hands, was his rookie year, 2012, like the poster above said. Even then, I remember checking on Rewind, and a few of those drops were some pretty questionable long pass "drops".

You think Moncrief can displace Hilton as WR1 on indy? Even when Hilton comes back healthy?

I am thinking it's possible, and I'm thinking I'm probably stupid for thinking it.

Hilton is boom or bust, and he has bad hands. He's definitely a homerun threat on any given play, but he's not a guy you can consistently rely on to catch a lot of intermediate passes.

I don't think it's crazy to think Moncrief is going to be a more valuable player in PPR leagues.

I remember Hilton's rookie year, there were people saying he had bad hands - there was a drop stat that was very misleading when you actually watched his "drops". I know that offseason there were reports that he was working big time with Harrison on his hands and route running.

This year I know he has 17 targets in 2 games with no drops. Was just reading an article earlier about Ginn with Miami and how his hands are so bad, and they had a chart up listing drops through Week 2. I remember noticing that Moncrief had 1 drop on 13 targets.

I think that "bad hands" label has been shed by Hilton, if it ever was even an issue. I've been able to watch all his snaps this year and he's been fine. So has Moncreif. I still think Hilton holds that #1 for longer than many think, with Moncrief maybe challenging at some point late season, or next year.

*Edited* Just went and checked for last year - Hilton had a drop % of 5.3, which put him near the top. There were 140+ players that had a higher drop % than him. His hands are fine.

Looks like you're using Sporting Charts for your stats. Unfortunately "drops" aren't specified as a stat, so it's a bit subjective. I will say that they had him at a 6.7% drop rate in 2012, but Pro Football Focus had him tied for highest drop rate in the league at 16.67.

I guess it depends on who you read and who you believe.

Who would be better - Hilton or Brazil - was the big question when they were rookies. Seeing them both, live, I thought Hilton was the guy to own. However, I still say that Hilton does not have good hands. He is solid on deep routes and can make incredible adjustments on the ball in mid air...but then will drop ball that hits him in the hands on a 5 yard in route.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

I use Pro Football Focus as well as other sites. PFF had Hilton with great hands in 2013 & '14. 6.82% & 5.75%, respectively.

Everyone I've seen has Hilton with good to great hands after his rookie year.

But I will agree that it's a tough stat to track, and it sounds like you're in Indy (you watch it live), and I'm just going off of TV, which doesn't always give a great perspective. I just hope he keeps up what he's been doing this year with no drops so far. I own both him and Moncrief, so want them both to succeed.

*ETA* I couldn't argue with you in the playoffs, though. I remember he had some big drops last year, but it was just one game that I saw. Still, it was a bad game.

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From ESPN:

When targeting Moncrief in Week 2, Andrew Luck was 7-of-8 for 122 yards and a touchdown. Luck was 14-of-27 for 128 yards and 3 INTs targeting everyone else.

Doesn't this seem like something due for a correction though?

Based on lucks numbers to moncrief last year, not much of a correction

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"When in doubt, Thursday's out"

Why?

1) Thursday game is generally not fruitful even under good conditions

2) He's being thrown to by a QB who was in the emergency room getting treatment for a virus two days ago. I foresee lots of Gore tonight

I don't like it, I sat him last week and watched him have a decent game and told myself he's a weekly starter from here on out...but that's starting NEXT week

Edited by timbrah_ho
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No other options due to short bench, injuries, and byes. I am starting him tonight

Its either moncrief or cooks for me, rolling with moncrief since brees cant seem to look cooks way....
Same choice and same decision for me.
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Hasselbeck threw 47 times last week. 20 times to RB/TE and 27 times to WR. This while Gore had 17 rush attempts.

So adjust the numbers tonight to 22 rushes for Gore, 15 attempts to RB/TE and 24 attempts to WR, assuming the Texans can control the clock better than the Jags did last week. I think 7 targets for Moncrief tonight sounds right. Maybe he ends up with 5 for 60 and a 50% chance of a TD. I'll take those odds as my WR3. The only thing that concerns me is if they force the ball to Andre for some sort of "in your face" homecoming thing to the Texans. Pagano and Pep are dumb enough to do it.

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Hasselbeck threw 47 times last week. 20 times to RB/TE and 27 times to WR. This while Gore had 17 rush attempts.

So adjust the numbers tonight to 22 rushes for Gore, 15 attempts to RB/TE and 24 attempts to WR, assuming the Texans can control the clock better than the Jags did last week. I think 7 targets for Moncrief tonight sounds right. Maybe he ends up with 5 for 60 and a 50% chance of a TD. I'll take those odds as my WR3. The only thing that concerns me is if they force the ball to Andre for some sort of "in your face" homecoming thing to the Texans. Pagano and Pep are dumb enough to do it.

If Hasselbeck were 100% I'd agree with that analysis but dude was in the ER two days ago and I think they try and ride Gore this week. Also yeah I'd imagine this might be AJ's only solid game of the year which might take away from Moncrief's value too. When in doubt, THursday's out

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Been debating Moncrief all day today between other flex type choices of Cooks and Duke Johnson. My .02 on tonight...

Expect to see a lot of Gore like others. Hass will start but he isn't 100% which has to be like 60% of a regular starting NFL QB given his age and being on the road. PRO MONCRIEF: Will see a lot of the slot and has at least 3" on every Hou CB. Hass should be looking to get the ball out of his hands in a hurry when he wants to throw when he looks across and see Watt ready to take him apart. Their OL will not be able to holdup for any deep balls in this game so I think the offense in the air has to go through Moncrief and wouldn't be surprised to see a real poor 5ish game from Hilton. If Moncrief or Hilton have big games, it will have to be YAC.

CON MONCRIEF: This OL is going to be a problem tonight and this has all the makings of a lot of penalties, punts and lack of points. Moncrief will likely only have limited targets 5-7 imo and this game will likely remain close since I don't expect Hou to run away in this one. Don't think there will be much time for Hass to run PA and also knowing that Hass has been sick and not 100%, I am not convinced that he can even finish the game tonight. Ask yourself if you would start Moncrief if Johnson were starting and if the answer is 'hell no' factor that in slightly to your decision. Road national game also doesn't help.

I still haven't made up my mind but I think I am going to move Cooks over him but as of right now I have Moncrief in the starting lineup. This is a close call but at best I think we are looking at a 10 point game as the ceiling in a standard league for Moncrief and a 4 or so more likely. Thoughts?

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Been debating Moncrief all day today between other flex type choices of Cooks and Duke Johnson. My .02 on tonight...

Expect to see a lot of Gore like others. Hass will start but he isn't 100% which has to be like 60% of a regular starting NFL QB given his age and being on the road. PRO MONCRIEF: Will see a lot of the slot and has at least 3" on every Hou CB. Hass should be looking to get the ball out of his hands in a hurry when he wants to throw when he looks across and see Watt ready to take him apart. Their OL will not be able to holdup for any deep balls in this game so I think the offense in the air has to go through Moncrief and wouldn't be surprised to see a real poor 5ish game from Hilton. If Moncrief or Hilton have big games, it will have to be YAC.

CON MONCRIEF: This OL is going to be a problem tonight and this has all the makings of a lot of penalties, punts and lack of points. Moncrief will likely only have limited targets 5-7 imo and this game will likely remain close since I don't expect Hou to run away in this one. Don't think there will be much time for Hass to run PA and also knowing that Hass has been sick and not 100%, I am not convinced that he can even finish the game tonight. Ask yourself if you would start Moncrief if Johnson were starting and if the answer is 'hell no' factor that in slightly to your decision. Road national game also doesn't help.

I still haven't made up my mind but I think I am going to move Cooks over him but as of right now I have Moncrief in the starting lineup. This is a close call but at best I think we are looking at a 10 point game as the ceiling in a standard league for Moncrief and a 4 or so more likely. Thoughts?

You and i seem to have the same team, welcome to mediocrity. For me, the NO offense just has not clicked this year. The screen game that made me want Cooks is not there. While Hass is way past his prime, i believe he will still run the offense efficiently which gives me more comfort in Moncrief than Cooks. At this point, i would kill for the 6/75 and a TD from this slot in my lineup. I am rolling with Moncrief.

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