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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Carter_Can_Fly
- Start date
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Yes so many football fans don't know really how good this guy is. Case in point Bob missing the boat on him.
matuski
Footballguy
Ive been here since page one friend.Comical that you waited a week to reply.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Quick, what is the one universal grouping for the top tier in actual football for all positions, CB, S, LB (inside/outside), DE, DT, QB, RB, WR, TE, OT, G and C?
If there is the slightest variance in even one player, by definition, you should be ashamed of yourself, and there is no possibility other than you must not have been watching games??? That is a bit condescending, I doubt you would appreciate that characterization if the roles were reversed. Sometimes, imo, it isn't as black and white and is more complicated than you are making it in such stridently, intransigently absolutist and extremist terms, such as there are only two possible categories - your opinion, and wrong people. Maybe you're right, maybe not. I certainly don't think you should be ashamed of yourself or aren't watching games if we have a simple difference of opinion on a partly subjective matter. I think you are channelling the evil Sammy, not the good Sammy.
I'm not saying there is no possibility you could be rIght. Above I said it doesn't hold up, but qualified it with an imo. I just think Revis and Sherman are better. I'm certainly not confused by the fact that they have more recognition than Davis, or why that might be the consensus.
On my original point, unless you are suggesting Watkins is perfect and there is now way he could be better positioned for greater production in the future by improving on things like route running and separation, and other traits that help him beat tight coverage, than we sort of agree, at least on that.
Have you ever been wrong? Is it possible you are wrong here. If so, than imo your response was unfortunate.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I am curious about your theory that Davis doesn't get as many chances to make plays because he is so good he is rarely tested (compared to Revis and Sherman?). It is a good question worth putting to the test with target data.
jurb26
Footballguy
I hate to make this a CB thread. It here is some info on the top CBs from last year. Obviously scheme and responsibility varies for most guys so take it however you want.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/02/13/sig-stats-ypcs-cornerbacks/
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/best-cornerback-stats-2014
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/2yximp/looking_for_a_way_to_compare_cornerback/
Personally, I think Davis has a bad rep from his days in Mia and it has clouded many people's view on him since arriving in Indy. He's a much better player now than the one in Mia.
You referenced before Davis isn't paid like a top CB. I'm not going to get into all the specifics, but in reality it's for three reasons IMO. First, he hasn't been doing it as long as the guys who are getting paid. When he was in Mia he had a terrible rep of being a gambler, taking too many chances and getting beat. He wasnt disciplined. Secondly, he has poor ball skills in relation to other top CBs. This guy drops a LOT of picks. Lastly, he is somewhat one dimensional. He lacks eye discipline (there's that word again) to be a solid some zone guy... Hence how Indy uses him. He can also be susceptible to certain routes, which I won't name. All in all though, from a pure cover standpoint this guys is elite.
A lot of what troubled Davis early in his career was that because he is so naturally gifted and athletic he tried to get by on just that. Somehow he seems to have had the switch go on in Indy and started playing with technique and worked to fine toon his craft.
Rest assured if he continues to play at this level he will get paid.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/02/13/sig-stats-ypcs-cornerbacks/
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/best-cornerback-stats-2014
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/2yximp/looking_for_a_way_to_compare_cornerback/
Personally, I think Davis has a bad rep from his days in Mia and it has clouded many people's view on him since arriving in Indy. He's a much better player now than the one in Mia.
You referenced before Davis isn't paid like a top CB. I'm not going to get into all the specifics, but in reality it's for three reasons IMO. First, he hasn't been doing it as long as the guys who are getting paid. When he was in Mia he had a terrible rep of being a gambler, taking too many chances and getting beat. He wasnt disciplined. Secondly, he has poor ball skills in relation to other top CBs. This guy drops a LOT of picks. Lastly, he is somewhat one dimensional. He lacks eye discipline (there's that word again) to be a solid some zone guy... Hence how Indy uses him. He can also be susceptible to certain routes, which I won't name. All in all though, from a pure cover standpoint this guys is elite.
A lot of what troubled Davis early in his career was that because he is so naturally gifted and athletic he tried to get by on just that. Somehow he seems to have had the switch go on in Indy and started playing with technique and worked to fine toon his craft.
Rest assured if he continues to play at this level he will get paid.
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AngryPatriot
Footballguy
Suckfest... he's a bench warmer until he starts to prove it consistently. We'll see this week when the Pats put up some points on them and they need to throw. But the Bills looked good and have a lot of weapons, a good run game, young QB.... not good.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I don't see things as black and white or in such rigid terms.It would be a fallacy to think because some presidential historical appraisals are off the mark (some like Carter?), that they must all be tainted. If somebody praises Lincoln, I would have to agree. Are you suggesting Revis and Sherman are overrated, undeserving of Pro Bowls and somehow just got lucky? If so, agree to disagree. I do think Sherman benefits from the top safety in the game having his back, but also think he could excel in alternative schemes. Do you think Merlin Olsen and Bruce Matthews won something like 14 Pro Bowls each because they got really lucky, it was completely random and haphazard and all undeserved (I realize stars sometimes coast on reputation in their latter career, but not for the entirety). If the answer is no on some these, than maybe you aren't as disdainful of the Pro Bowl as you sound like.The Pro Bowl is a joke. By your measure Peterson is the best CB in the NFL, yet he was clearly the worst of that group last year. Hell, I love Peterson but he was bad last year. Bad for his standards and nothing near the top CB.Davis made the Pro Bowl in '14, so it isn't like he receives no recognition (also around #60 in the top 100 poll, not that authoritative and informal, but a sign he has the respect of his peers).How often were Revis, Sherman and Davis thrown at last season? It is kind of an empirical question, we can check the hypothesis that Revis and Sherman receive more recognition because they are inferior in coverage and therefore thrown at a lot and given the chance to make plays, and Davis is so superior he is rarely tested.
One reason Davis tends to not be commonly cited as the top CB in the league may have to do with contracts being viewed as a proxy for talent. For instance:
Revis - 5 yr, $70 million, 39 guaranteed('15)
Sherman - 4 yr, $56 mil, 40 guaranteed ('14)
Peterson- 5 yr, $70 mil, $48 guaranteed ('14)
Haden - 5 yr, $67 mil, 22 guaranteed ('14)
Davis - 4 yr, $39 mil, $20 guaranteed ('14)
Davis is getting half the guaranteed money of Revis and Sherman.
* Rightly or wrongly, Pro Bowls and All-Pro recognition are also generally viewed as another proxy for excellence. If you are seriously looking for reasons why Davis isn't as well known nationally, these could be more substantive reasons than ESPN. Ya think?
Revis has 6 Pro Bowls and 4 All-Pros
Sherman has 2 Pro Bowls and 3 All-Pros (not sure how the latter higher than former?)
Davis doesn't get a lot of picks, which hurts his name value and positional value. Also, he's not playing on a good overall defense, which again hurts his name value. He doesn't posses the ball skills of other top CBs, but that doesn't mean he isn't better at coverage. He blankets guys but doesn't make you pay as often. There is certainly something to be said for that. For sheer coverage, man to man. He's on an island by himself IMO.
We seem to be talking about different things at times than you think we are. You are responding as if I stated Pro Bowls are conclusive, definitive proof that one CB or another is superior in coverage. I mentioned contracts and Pro Bowls as examples of things that could be viewed as a proxy for relative talent, and CONTRIBUTE to a current consensus, of why some players are commonly viewed how they are, for better or worse. Peterson won some of those as a return specialist (he broke records as a rookie, for instance), I don't think he is as good in coverage, either. It wasn't an accident that I didn't list his Pro Bowls, but just those of Revis and Sherman. He was dealing with undiagnosed diabetes at least last season, if not for longer, so IF his condition is amenable to treatment, he could have upside on that basis.
Is the Hall of Fame a joke, too? Because Revis is far more likely to make it than Davis. It isn't by virtue of his run support skills, but for his coverage ability.
Contract status was another criteria listed, again, not as conclusive proof of relative talent, but as a proxy that tends to contribute to a consensus view of relative talent. If Davis thinks he is that talented, it isn't obvious why NFL personnel execs wouldn't concur, and he could have pushed for a contract more in line with the top ones (such as Revis and Sherman). Why would they criminally underrate him? The league makes mistakes on Kurt Warner-types all the time, but not usually when they have been in the league and playing at a high level for a while, so they aren't sneaking up on anybody.
You said yourself, his lack of ball skills negatively impacts his picks which hurts his positional and name value, so there ya go, that sounds like some good reasons other than ESPN why he doesn't receive wider league acclaim and popular recognition. To some scouts, ball skills and INTs are important. I'm not sure there is some universal criteria in place to say it is wrong to value that more than coverage ability. There seems to be a subjective element, and differences of taste at work in why some scouts and teams rank some traits higher than others, as far as an explanation of why Davis may seem "underappreciated" to you relative to Revis and Sherman (while you may not put much stock in the Pro Bowl, that isn't necessarily a common perspective, so the fact that Davis made it, does run counter to the belief that he is some kind of unknown).
It does help playing on a good team, but certainly there have been players that enjoyed a lot of recognition and high level of financial reward despite playing on bad teams. It isn't obvious as an explanation of why he would be offered (and SIGN) a contract about half the guaranteed money of Revis and Sherman?
* I wrote this before reading your most recent post, you addressed some of the questions about contract.
Earlier, you suggested maybe he has less opportunity to make plays because he isn't thrown to as much (prompting my response that it sounded like an empirical question to see if you were right or not - note I didn't say you are definitely wrong). You also alluded to a lack of ball skills and hands. An implication that follows from that is, even if he had the opportunity, it would probably have been a moot point anyways?
Lastly, you just listed a bunch or reasons that you seem to understand very well why Davis isn't commonly viewed in Revis and Sherman's tier (or Peterson or Haden, for that matter). I'm not seeing why it is so surprising that he is, as you put it, "criminally underrated". I get that Davis appears to be in the midst of a nice upward trajectory and is seemingly an ascendant player. But the fact that Revis and Sherman have been doing it longer is a non-trivial distinction, and is a good explanation to help understand, for the purposes of the thread, why it is no mystery that they may be more commonly held in higher esteem, by both league personnel execs and fans.
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jurb26
Footballguy
The NFL is about the here and now. I don't care what reputations Revis and Sherman have. Every game you watch and every season is an opportunity to examine new information in an objective way. Of course these things matter if you're an owner and about to sign over millions of dollars in a contract. The problem with most of the media sources when it comes to things like this is it's almost exclusively reactive. For instance just now are people calling Davis an ascendant player. The issue with this is it's largely out dated. Davis has been this player for over a year, basically 2 years. He started that accent in 2013. CB is an odd position for most fans to examine because more often than not they only get noticed when they make tremendous plays or terrible plays. Given that Davis lacks high end ball skills I don't think this plays very well to him. He's going to lock you up, but make few INTs so most just won't take notice. To be honest, I've been trying to tell people how good Davis is for about a year now because I watch the games and it's just flat obvious. I don't mean this to say others don't watch the games but I just don't think 99% of the people out there care enough about CB/DB play to look closely and that's understandable. For me however, it's the best part of the game.Bob Magaw said:
I find it odd that so many can't separate attributes when having these types of discussions. If you want to say there are other CBs who are better overall players, fine have at it. I won't really argue it that much. I would still argue Davis is in the debate, though. Schematically, comparing a guy like Davis and Sherman is almost silly. They don't play anything close to the same roles even though they play the same position.
I also find it ironic that if we look at the group of guys playing at a very high level, according to the data I provided, Davis plays with the clear worst supporting cast. The only other guy who can claim similarly putrid S play is Norman in Car (though his front 7 is light years better and that also matters), who I've also mentioned as a top CB in recent months. There really are no shut down CBs anymore. The modern game has essentially removed it. CBs all get more help today than top CBs of the past because the rules make it easier to pass, harder to cover. Schematically, There are guys left on a island more than others, Davis is one of the those guys. The major difference is that Davis can pretty much never count on his S help because his S's suck. Revis played with outstanding S's in NE. Again, the only guy on that list who might be in the running for equally bad S play is Norman.
So, if you want to talk about overall best CB, name recognition and things of that nature we can. If you want to talk about just pure coverage however, Davis is elite and the numbers back it. Again, this guy hasn't given up a TD pass in over 2 years. That is despite horrible S play, a below average front 207 in front of him and more targets than some other guys like Sherman and Revis. The body of work is there but if you don't want to see it fine.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I have a feeling Sammy may have been more injured than we were all led to believe.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
On the bright side, it looks like there's a decent chance that Tyrod Taylor won't suck.
I'm still on board this train.
I'm still on board this train.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
First, thanks for that stat links above.Second, in the three COVERAGE links you furnished:
Sherman finished ahead of BOTH the other two twice (first and second overall, in those cases)
Revis finished ahead of BOTH the other two once (first overall, in that instance)
Davis finished ahead of BOTH the other two zero times (in fairness, I think he was higher than Revis twice and Sherman once, just didn't receive a top grade in any of the three sets of numbers, unlike his more well known, decorated and compensated counterparts)
I assume they have nothing to do with ESPN, Pro Bowls, contracts or reps.
One question I had was about your theory that Davis may have less opportunity to make plays because he was so good he wasn't tested as much as Revis and Sherman. Thus the stat request. You concluded here by stating he is targeted more than them. So it sounds like the theory didn't hold up under scrutiny. We are jumping around a lot, sometimes not talking about the same thing, or it is morphing into a different discussion.
You keep saying he is just being recognized now, but the fact that he made the Pro Bowl and top 100 player list means that he was recognized as an upper echelon player (if not the best) at least as far back as last year. He did after all sign a contract last year, albeit more second tier, compared to Revis, Sherman and Peterson. For me, there is plenty of room to think that Revis and Sherman or better, but nonetheless, he is not some kind of complete unknown.
This year is only one game old. The last full season we have to go by is last year. You talk about the here and now, but I don't see any other possibility but that impressions and judgements are going to be formed largely by the past (even if as recent as last season), yourself included. Some kind of lag is inevitable (of course if a player like Martavis Bryant looks like one of the best WRs in the league in the preseason, that needs to be factored in, but it is still within the context of last year). Same with wider recognition, Pro Bowls, contracts. If one player has done it for two years, and another for 2-3-4 X as long, it would be odd if that didn't carry more weight (until the point a player begins to decline and/or gets alarmingly old). They are more proven, over a longer time.
Again, in the stat links you furnished, Davis is graded side by side with Revis and Sherman. Whether it is silly in your estimation, it is routine and conventional. Stat site don't say that systems are so different we just list the 32 teams separately, with no possibility for comparison. That would also be a very odd way to treat stats and relative comparisons within a position. I have no idea how things like Pro Bowl awards would factor in supporting cast (though I could see contracts accounting for it), such that a player with a worse supporting cast gets an award over a player that may have measured better statistically and benefitted from a better supporting cast. That starts to get a little speculative and subjective.
I don't want to put too fine a point on this, and am done discussing CBs after this post for now. But it could bear on Watkins development and future potential. Let's return the discussion to the overarching purpose of all this - what does it mean, what (if anything) are the implications for Watkins? I'm not saying Watkins is terrible based on one week. That would be absurd. But if he were going up against Revis (he will twice this season, health of both permitting) and Sherman the next two weeks, and similarly emerge with 0 targets, that is going to be pretty alarming and disturbing. If this keeps happening and others explain it away by stating, "Hey, other receiving weapons were more open", that is going to be small consolation. Unless Davis has zero targets every week for the rest of the season, it is natural to ask why other WRs fared better. As good as Davis might be, if he is facing top WRs like Julio, Bryant, Thomas, Green, I would be surprised if he completely shuts them down to zero targets on a regular basis (while that may be an unfair comparison, I think some have high aspirations for Watkins, see the OP). I doubt DEN coughed up two firsts and burned a fourth overall pick to use him as an expensive decoy against top CBs like Revis, Sherman, etc.
Note this doesn't even need to be "blaming" Watkins. It could reflect on the inexperienced QB (but if so, that could be an ongoing problem of indeterminate length, contingent on an unknown, Taylor's development)? Or coaching and play calling? But no matter how good Davis is, I have seen him get beat. You mentioned not yielding a TD since '12? I wasn't necessarily expecting a TD, but if Watkins continues to get 0 (or few) targets against tough matchups, and it becomes some sort of pattern, it will inevitably reflect poorly on him. No matter how good he is, it isn't controversial to suggest that he didn't exactly enter the league as a polished route runner. Any development and improvement on route running, separation and ability to defeat coverage (against even the best CBs) can only help to make situations like Sunday happen fewer times and further between.
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oldmanhawkins
Footballguy
I haven't read through all the overreaction, so forgive me if this has been said but - My ranking of Sammy is unchanged or even a little positive after this. The bills offense was way more effective than everyone expected and Tyrod is going to get the ball to his playmakers. Sammy will get his.
jurb26
Footballguy
The stats do hold up. Davis was targeted 71 times. That was second least to only Sherman who plays an entirely different scheme and he doesn't match up with WR1s like the rest of the man guys. Teams have regularly lined up their WR1s on the opposite side vs Sea and just avoid Sherman because it just makes sense. These are apples and oranges. Cover 3 based system vs. man coverage, which is why I alluded to it earlier.
He is just now getting recognized. He was nearly just as good in 2013 yet nobody talks about it. I'm in here defending his body of work to you (and I've done this in other threads the last several months) based on last years body of work. This shouldn't be necessary at all for the level he's played, yet here we are.
I think this portion of your post cuts right to the heart of things.
"Again, in the stat links you furnished, Davis is graded side by side with Revis and Sherman. Whether it is silly in your estimation, it is routine and conventional. Stat site don't say that systems are so different we just list the 32 teams separately, with no possibility for comparison."
So, Davis numbers are right in line with the guys universally considered the best CBs, he does it in a largely man system, with less support and yet nobody talks about him in the same regard. I could double this for Norman, who is perhaps even more so underrated.
As far as what it means for Watkins, I don't think much to be honest. QB play is going to be his problem much more than this. I don't consider Watkins an elite talent but you don't have to be elite at WR to beat elite CBs. The field is literally tilted the WR favor, especially when it's man coverage. Going against guys like Revis is going to be concerning because, well it's concerning for any WR facing the better CBs in the NFL. Sherman not so much because you can just line him up opposite and Sea won't move him, not often anyways.
The bottom line is that the offense has the advantage almost all the time in today's game. There is a saying in coaching defense that you can't stop a perfectly executed play. It's absolutely true. If Buf really wants to they can scheme Watkins into favorable positions and get him away from the best CBs like Davis. Motion him, line him in the slot, stack formations, all these things work to create the matchup you want on offense. With that in mind is say a lack of truly wanting to rely on Watkins and his QB are bigger limitations than what the defense is going to do.
He is just now getting recognized. He was nearly just as good in 2013 yet nobody talks about it. I'm in here defending his body of work to you (and I've done this in other threads the last several months) based on last years body of work. This shouldn't be necessary at all for the level he's played, yet here we are.
I think this portion of your post cuts right to the heart of things.
"Again, in the stat links you furnished, Davis is graded side by side with Revis and Sherman. Whether it is silly in your estimation, it is routine and conventional. Stat site don't say that systems are so different we just list the 32 teams separately, with no possibility for comparison."
So, Davis numbers are right in line with the guys universally considered the best CBs, he does it in a largely man system, with less support and yet nobody talks about him in the same regard. I could double this for Norman, who is perhaps even more so underrated.
As far as what it means for Watkins, I don't think much to be honest. QB play is going to be his problem much more than this. I don't consider Watkins an elite talent but you don't have to be elite at WR to beat elite CBs. The field is literally tilted the WR favor, especially when it's man coverage. Going against guys like Revis is going to be concerning because, well it's concerning for any WR facing the better CBs in the NFL. Sherman not so much because you can just line him up opposite and Sea won't move him, not often anyways.
The bottom line is that the offense has the advantage almost all the time in today's game. There is a saying in coaching defense that you can't stop a perfectly executed play. It's absolutely true. If Buf really wants to they can scheme Watkins into favorable positions and get him away from the best CBs like Davis. Motion him, line him in the slot, stack formations, all these things work to create the matchup you want on offense. With that in mind is say a lack of truly wanting to rely on Watkins and his QB are bigger limitations than what the defense is going to do.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
What is holding up? I was responding to the last paragraph of the previous post, in which you stated Davis had more targets than Revis or Sherman. Now you are saying he had more targets than Sherman, but not Revis. I'm doing my best to respond to your statements. But again, we continue to be all over the place, talk about different things and morph into different discussions.
At this point we are repeating ourselves. You keep saying he is just being recognized now. I don't concur, since he made the Pro Bowl, top 100 player list and got paid a second tier contract. Repeating it isn't going to change my perspective, but it is kind of a trivial point compared to the larger, Watkins-related ones. No need to pound our heads against a brick wall on this.
IMO, if he continues to get 0/low targets on a regular, ongoing basis, it will "mean much". But I agree with you that there could be systemic, scheme-related issues going on which could be more problematic for those hoping for consistent high level production from a Watkins. At least for the present.
At this point we are repeating ourselves. You keep saying he is just being recognized now. I don't concur, since he made the Pro Bowl, top 100 player list and got paid a second tier contract. Repeating it isn't going to change my perspective, but it is kind of a trivial point compared to the larger, Watkins-related ones. No need to pound our heads against a brick wall on this.
IMO, if he continues to get 0/low targets on a regular, ongoing basis, it will "mean much". But I agree with you that there could be systemic, scheme-related issues going on which could be more problematic for those hoping for consistent high level production from a Watkins. At least for the present.
jurb26
Footballguy
Bob, I said pretty clearly he hasn't given up a TD pass in 2 years.... It's a 2 year outlook, not 1. So you can't look at the 1 year numbers.
Also, he's been this player for over 2 years now and just made the Pro Bowl last year. Why didn't he make it in 2013 when he was essentially the same player?
For the same reason Norman didn't make it last year but will this year.
Also, he's been this player for over 2 years now and just made the Pro Bowl last year. Why didn't he make it in 2013 when he was essentially the same player?
For the same reason Norman didn't make it last year but will this year.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Jurb, we have talked about more than one thing, some things on a one year scale, others on a two year scale, and still more over longer time frames. From my perspective, throwing out one isolated stat isn't tantamount to a tacit agreement that EVERYTHING we are talking about is to be interpreted by this two season unit measure, never less, never more. Perhaps it would be clearer if you identified different time frames as we shift contexts.
Just to clarify, you earlier stated you thought Davis may get less opportunities than Revis and Sherman to make plays. So I asked to check the numbers (again, I wasn't stating you were wrong, it seemed like weren't sure yourself based on how you phrased it, so just checking out of curiosity, in a hypothesis testing sense). You came back with three sets of numbers. I was speaking to those, which referenced 2014. That is confusing, if you assumed I was speaking from a two year time frame, about the stats you provided, from a one year time frame. At two different times, you variously said Davis had more targets than Revis and Sherman, than later, that Davis had more than Sherman, but not Revis. Clearly they can't both be true over the same time frame. If you were speaking about two diffetent time frames but not identifying them, perhaps you can see how that might be a little confusing? Do we know what the relative two year target numbers for Davis, Revis and Sherman are? I was speaking to those stats you did link, not what you didn't.
We still seem to be talking about different things. You repeated several times that he is just now receiving attention as an upper echelon talent. I disagreed, based on his making the Pro Bowl and top 100 list based on LAST season. Here you are saying something different, that he should have been recognized in 2014, for what he did in 2013. I don't disagree with that. Just the statement that he is just NOW receiving recognition.
We could still check the numbers for 2014 AND 2013 COMBINED if you are interested, beyond that, as long as we are clear there may have been some confusion about time frames, let's just leave it as we agree on some things, and agree to disagree on what we don't. We'll see how 2015 plays out for Davis, Revis and Sherman. I will watch Davis more closely, and, accounting for scheme differences, if I think he has surpassed them and is the league's best in coverage, I'll acknowledge that and let you know.
Just to clarify, you earlier stated you thought Davis may get less opportunities than Revis and Sherman to make plays. So I asked to check the numbers (again, I wasn't stating you were wrong, it seemed like weren't sure yourself based on how you phrased it, so just checking out of curiosity, in a hypothesis testing sense). You came back with three sets of numbers. I was speaking to those, which referenced 2014. That is confusing, if you assumed I was speaking from a two year time frame, about the stats you provided, from a one year time frame. At two different times, you variously said Davis had more targets than Revis and Sherman, than later, that Davis had more than Sherman, but not Revis. Clearly they can't both be true over the same time frame. If you were speaking about two diffetent time frames but not identifying them, perhaps you can see how that might be a little confusing? Do we know what the relative two year target numbers for Davis, Revis and Sherman are? I was speaking to those stats you did link, not what you didn't.
We still seem to be talking about different things. You repeated several times that he is just now receiving attention as an upper echelon talent. I disagreed, based on his making the Pro Bowl and top 100 list based on LAST season. Here you are saying something different, that he should have been recognized in 2014, for what he did in 2013. I don't disagree with that. Just the statement that he is just NOW receiving recognition.
We could still check the numbers for 2014 AND 2013 COMBINED if you are interested, beyond that, as long as we are clear there may have been some confusion about time frames, let's just leave it as we agree on some things, and agree to disagree on what we don't. We'll see how 2015 plays out for Davis, Revis and Sherman. I will watch Davis more closely, and, accounting for scheme differences, if I think he has surpassed them and is the league's best in coverage, I'll acknowledge that and let you know.
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jurb26
Footballguy
I don't know why you're having so much trouble following the numbers. This is the post that started a lot of this and I never stated anyone in relation to Davis in it. I simply said;
"People don't throw at him because the rest of the Indy secondary has been garbage."
Later I used a clear paragraph break to suggest the new line of thought and shift to 2 year time line.
I'm just letting this go because you seem to want to argue for the sake of argument.
"
"People don't throw at him because the rest of the Indy secondary has been garbage."
Later I used a clear paragraph break to suggest the new line of thought and shift to 2 year time line.
I'm just letting this go because you seem to want to argue for the sake of argument.
"
Bob Magaw said:
Rex Ryan: Sammy Watkins' quiet Sunday will be rare
Sounds like it's going to be very game plan dependent, which means a lot of ups and downs for Watkins owners.
Sounds like it's going to be very game plan dependent, which means a lot of ups and downs for Watkins owners.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Hey Sammy, Delonte West called, he said "You betta have my donuts!"
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Watkins overall numbers in 2014 were outstanding for a rookie (he just happened to be overshadowed by the historic 1,000+ yard trio, OBJ, Evans and Benjamin - Watkins was less than 20 yards shy). From week to week, he was inconsistent. Some of that can be chalked up to QB issues, as well as stretches where he played, but was described as dinged, so likely less than 100% (it happens to vets, too, DeSean Jackson could miss a month).
Not to bash him, but just to try and shed light on '15 projections, based on his '14 scoring distribution profile.
Game, 100+ yardage games (receptions in parentheses) TD breakdown
8 - 157 (3) 1 TD
13 - 127 (7) 0 TD
7 - 122 (9) 2 TD
2 - 117 (8) 1 TD
His next best game was week 5 (7-87-0).
Ranges from the other 11 games:
Receptions (1 once, 2 twice, 3 six X, 4 twice)
Yards (11, 19, 27, 27, 28, 30, 31, 32, 35, 57, 75)
TDs (2 combined)
He could improve on his overall production in a few ways. A higher amplitude of outburst type games, with a similar distribution of sporadic, intermittent production, AND/OR, greater consistency of starter caliber/worthy games on a week to week basis. Some of that could be out of his control. Even if new QB Taylor is an improvement and we leave that aside, it could be for other reasons, such as matchups (not just his personal ones, but as dictated by the opposing defense's back seven coverage ability which could variably impact on whether other BUF receiving weapons are relatively more or less open and thus emphasized or deemphasized in a given week's game plan, a key initial concept by others that prompted aspects of this discussion), as well as philosophical/scheme concerns - maybe some weeks HC Ryan could prefer to run the ball more.
The main intent here isn't for predictive purposes. Just background and detail to provide context which may enable more informed projections, and if warranted, adjustment of expectations (especially on outburst games and inconsistency measures) accordingly. That said, I think 0 targets will prove an aberration, he can still be a top 20, WR2-type. It will be interesting to track his consistency and look for changes (if any) in the distribution pattern within his overall production, compared to his rookie season. To partly recap, external factors, not including things like personal route running improvement, also in need of accounting for in making that comparison - QB play and injury (already alluded to above).
Not to bash him, but just to try and shed light on '15 projections, based on his '14 scoring distribution profile.
Game, 100+ yardage games (receptions in parentheses) TD breakdown
8 - 157 (3) 1 TD
13 - 127 (7) 0 TD
7 - 122 (9) 2 TD
2 - 117 (8) 1 TD
His next best game was week 5 (7-87-0).
Ranges from the other 11 games:
Receptions (1 once, 2 twice, 3 six X, 4 twice)
Yards (11, 19, 27, 27, 28, 30, 31, 32, 35, 57, 75)
TDs (2 combined)
He could improve on his overall production in a few ways. A higher amplitude of outburst type games, with a similar distribution of sporadic, intermittent production, AND/OR, greater consistency of starter caliber/worthy games on a week to week basis. Some of that could be out of his control. Even if new QB Taylor is an improvement and we leave that aside, it could be for other reasons, such as matchups (not just his personal ones, but as dictated by the opposing defense's back seven coverage ability which could variably impact on whether other BUF receiving weapons are relatively more or less open and thus emphasized or deemphasized in a given week's game plan, a key initial concept by others that prompted aspects of this discussion), as well as philosophical/scheme concerns - maybe some weeks HC Ryan could prefer to run the ball more.
The main intent here isn't for predictive purposes. Just background and detail to provide context which may enable more informed projections, and if warranted, adjustment of expectations (especially on outburst games and inconsistency measures) accordingly. That said, I think 0 targets will prove an aberration, he can still be a top 20, WR2-type. It will be interesting to track his consistency and look for changes (if any) in the distribution pattern within his overall production, compared to his rookie season. To partly recap, external factors, not including things like personal route running improvement, also in need of accounting for in making that comparison - QB play and injury (already alluded to above).
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http://www.wgr550.com/JW-All-22-Review-Bills-Colts/21965610
if you look at this, you can see a few examples of how much attention the Colts gave to Watkins. Put their #1 corner on him and gave him safety help over the top.
Bills have enough other weapons that they don't need to force the ball to him. Plus, they were playing with a lead and not facing a lot of 3rd and long situations here thanks a dominant defensive effort and great QB play.
Tough matchup, but he's obviously going to draw a lot of attention every week because everyone knows how good he is. I'm hoping the coaches get a bit more creative in moving him around and finding other ways to get him some better matchups.
if you look at this, you can see a few examples of how much attention the Colts gave to Watkins. Put their #1 corner on him and gave him safety help over the top.
Bills have enough other weapons that they don't need to force the ball to him. Plus, they were playing with a lead and not facing a lot of 3rd and long situations here thanks a dominant defensive effort and great QB play.
Tough matchup, but he's obviously going to draw a lot of attention every week because everyone knows how good he is. I'm hoping the coaches get a bit more creative in moving him around and finding other ways to get him some better matchups.
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I think Davis played better than Revis last year. He's elite IMO.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
How about Sherman, point taken they have different roles within their respective schemes.
At any rate, another thing which can be tracked this season, for those with an interest in defense in general, and coverage skill specifically.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
More and more it's looking like Sammy Watkins is slowly becoming the WR version of Trent Dickardson
Sherman is elite as well.
the top cover corners in the league are Sherman, Revis, and Davis IMO. Wouldn't want my #1 WR facing off against any of them.
Chris Harris also gets a lot of love from PFF but I haven't watched him as much. I assume Peterson in Arizona is great but also don't watch much of him.
I don't know. Part of me worries they might just be content to let Watkins take 2 defenders away and attack the rest of the field. Worked this week.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
To paraphrase Parcells, Ryan is in the winning business. Fantasy football is the last thing on his mind.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
If Rex Ryan is in the "Winning" business, he may want to consider finding a new occupation.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Buf will take what defenses give them and, I suspect, play conservative ball with inexperienced QB and tough tough defense. Watkins seems more like a Terrance Williams type now...will draw double coverage/defensive attention while others rack up yards and TD opportunities. Watkins is more talented, but I think I'd rather have Williams because his offense and QB will be more aggressive.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'll be rolling with Stevie Johnson by week 3 if there is another repeat of this nonsense next week.
flapgreen
Footballguy
For real
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Ugh, thought I got a steal when I grabbed Watkins as my #3 WR in my auction redraft league. Now, I'm not even sure he's worth holding onto, especially with some decent PPR WR options floating out there. I'm guessing Watkins will get some love going forward, but I think the QB and offensive philosophy will severely limit his ceiling. I think he'll struggle to finish in the top 30-36 in PPR, which means he's not even on the WR #3/Flex landscape. Maybe I'm overreacting to week 1. Am I overreacting?
fightingillini
Footballguy
a little bit, but your concerns are real.
BUF D slowed down one of the best offenses in the league. They are going to be playing with the lead a lot. They like the run the ball. A lot.
In many ways, Watkins would be the perfect WR3, could get you that big game that helps you win, but has a low floor. But you have the pass the ball to potentially get Watkins points. I don't see many games where BUF will pass the ball more than 30 times.
I have heard that NE is a better matchup for Watkins.....not so sure about that. DeAngelo Williams had over 100 yards rushing against them. You know that BUF is going to want to run the ball and keep Brady off the field.
I agree with you that it's going to be hard for Watkins to finish inside the top 30 WRs this year, especially in PPR.
