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Sammy Watkins the next Andre Johnson...


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Watkins is Andre Johnson. The 2015 washed up version for fantasy purposes.

5-36-0.

Was a Vonta Davis caliber CB covering him, oh, that's right, Revis is withe Jets now.

* Scored as I wrote that. I still find the usage alarming. It was 5-36-0 late in the 4th.

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Watkins is Andre Johnson. The 2015 washed up version for fantasy purposes.

5-36-0.

Was a Vonta Davis caliber CB covering him, oh, that's right, Revis is withe Jets now.

* Scored as I wrote that. I still find the usage alarming. It was 5-36-0 late in the 4th.

And it was 6-60-1 at the end. Scores late in the 4th count, ya know.

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Watkins is Andre Johnson. The 2015 washed up version for fantasy purposes.

5-36-0.

Was a Vonta Davis caliber CB covering him, oh, that's right, Revis is withe Jets now.

* Scored as I wrote that. I still find the usage alarming. It was 5-36-0 late in the 4th.

And it was 6-60-1 at the end. Scores late in the 4th count, ya know.

He won't get bailed out of bad games with late TDs every week, ya know.

If he is 5-36 late into games on a regular basis, you may not be so cavalier about it going forward.

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Watkins is Andre Johnson. The 2015 washed up version for fantasy purposes.

5-36-0.

Was a Vonta Davis caliber CB covering him, oh, that's right, Revis is withe Jets now.

* Scored as I wrote that. I still find the usage alarming. It was 5-36-0 late in the 4th.

And it was 6-60-1 at the end. Scores late in the 4th count, ya know.

He won't get bailed out of bad games with late TDs every week, ya know.

If he is 5-36 late into games on a regular basis, you may not be so cavalier about it going forward.

How I am being cavalier? Just seeing it for how it is.

And for the record, I had major reservations about Watkins coming into the season, because of being on a Rex Ryan team and their uncertain QB situation, so I am not someone predicting a top 10 finish for him or anything. I just don't think he is going to be the disaster that some think he will be (barring injury).

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You are of course right, in the sense that, of course it makes no difference if you score in first, second, third, fourth quarter or OT.

All I meant, if he goes late into games on a regular basis with just a few receptions and yards, I'll be concerned, because it will be difficult to manufacture game salvaging late TDs on a regular basis. But that is an abstract concern at this point.

In week 1, Aaron provided a blurb that it was by design that Watkins was used as a decoy, and a high percentage of the game he was basically run up the field on go routes to clear out for others. If he had been given a more diverse route tree, it would have been interesting to see him battle the CB under better circumstances. He does get Revis twice, health of both permitting.

I saw him as a WR2 type in redraft (which may have been optimistic), long term WR1 in dynasty based on talent.

In post #1681 of the previous page, I broke down his rookie season scoring distribution, and it is very volatile. He had four monster games, some middling games and a lot of clunkers. The huge games made possible very impressive overall numbers for a rookie (he was overshadowed by OBJ, Evans and Benjamin - OBJ prorated would have been one of the best seasons ever for a WR, not just rookie, Evans I think had the second most TDs for a rookie WR ever after Randy Moss[[?]], but Watkins finished close to 1,000 yards, usually outstanding for a rookie). But super inconsistent. I chalked that up to QB struggles, and he was hurt at times. We'll see how Taylor works out, and Ryan's offensive philosophy is a joker in the deck, both which you accounted for and noted. What worries me, is how volatile and inconsistent he is going to be, and is he going to have a role as a go to WR1, or will they spread the ball around with Harvin, Clay, McCoy, etc., and not prioritize him in that way. I don't doubt his talent a bit, the concerns are more potentially systemic ones. I agree he could be fine given slightly attenuated expectations on the part of some. Thanks for your input.

* Where would you rank him, in dynasty, redraft or both (depending on what you play).

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Now is the time to be trying to acquire him in dynasty. I'll happily take him off your hands in redraft. His talent is so evident on the field by the acrobatic catches and the serious separation that he gets. And say what you want about his QB, but thus far Tyrod has been accurate and has a knack for extending the play and keeping his eyes downfield. He might not be the long term solution at QB, but he is way better than anyone could have hoped for. The Bills put up 27 and then 32 points in the first two weeks. Not exactly winning 6-3 like many expected. The short term downside is that the Bills have attempted the 2nd fewest passes in the league and there is legit competition for targets. Not a huge deal Sammy has already shown the ability to put up good numbers on average targets and Percy/McCoy are injuries waiting to happen.

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Just getting this out here for fun: I think he torches Miami sunday. Something along the lines of 8-150-TD....

I have a funny feeling about this too... not sure if I can pull the trigger and add him oo my lineup.

Why? He's a total stud and Tyrod is getting experience and getting more comfortable throwing the ball.

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Just getting this out here for fun: I think he torches Miami sunday. Something along the lines of 8-150-TD....

I have a funny feeling about this too... not sure if I can pull the trigger and add him oo my lineup.

I don't want to make this a WDIS post, but I have other viable options with higher floors than him. Not sure yet if I want the consistent play or if I will swing for the fences.

Why? He's a total stud and Tyrod is getting experience and getting more comfortable throwing the ball.

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I think Im putting him in as my WR2 over Stevie and Moncrief. I like the floors of the other players im flexing/RB2 with Lat Murray, Gore, and Eifert - so I feel like taking a bit of a swing for the fences with Watkins. Also since Im already starting Luck and Gore and that O hasnt looked pristine yet exactly, shying away from Moncrief for that reason as well.

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All I meant, if he goes late into games on a regular basis with just a few receptions and yards, I'll be concerned, because it will be difficult to manufacture game salvaging late TDs on a regular basis. But that is an abstract concern at this point.

Particularly since it is unlikely that the Bills are down a lot and need to throw.

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At this point, who is the more desirable Bills receiver to have - Watkins or Harvin?

Watkins and it isn't close. Harvin is benefitting from the double and triple coverage that Watkins is getting, but his skills at this point in his career fall way short of Sammy. Keep in mind that Watkins and Taylor have only played two games together and Sammy missed almost the entire preseason. They are still getting to know each other and will only get better.

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I don't really question the talent but I do recognize that he's going to be effected by game flow more than most WR1s in their respective offenses this year. Only CLE (23.5) has attempted less passes per game than BUF (24.5) so far this year. Imagine if he was on HOU who has averaged 52.5 passes a game thus far this year? It'd be a totally different story.

Edited by SameSongNDance
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At this point, who is the more desirable Bills receiver to have - Watkins or Harvin?

Watkins and it isn't close. Harvin is benefitting from the double and triple coverage that Watkins is getting, but his skills at this point in his career fall way short of Sammy. Keep in mind that Watkins and Taylor have only played two games together and Sammy missed almost the entire preseason. They are still getting to know each other and will only get better.

Thanks for the thoughts! And I agree, long term Watkins is the play. But week to week, right now at this point of season, it just seems like a coin flip between the two from a fantasy production standpoint. Which means Harvin is outperforming my expectations by a lot and Watkins is underperforming. Be it for rapport, double coverage or whatever, these two seem really close to me right now in the first half of the season.

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I don't really question the talent but I do recognize that he's going to be effected by game flow more than most WR1s in their respective offenses this year. Only CLE (23.5) has attempted less passes per game than BUF (24.5) so far this year. Imagine if he was on HOU who has averaged 52.5 passes a game thus far this year? It'd be a totally different story.

HOU only averages that many passes because they stink.

I see your point, however.

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Fantasy owners are so fickle. After game 1 I heard so many people going off the deep end on Watkins. Talking about how he may even be droppable. Ridiculous.

Then after week 2 he had a decent week and people are like "ok that's better but isn't trust him".

Now everyone is taking about how he might have a huge game this week vs Miami and everyone feels much better about him.

It's like bi-polar disorder in here lol.

I drafted him as my wr3 until m. Bryant comes back and he's glued to my lineup. He's way too talented to give up on after 1 stinker. I don't care who his qb is or if it's a run heavy team.

Carolina is a run heavy team yet kelvin Benjamin managed to be very fantasy relevant last year. Watkins is the cream in buffalo that will rise to the top.

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MIA hasn't been as fearsome on defense as advertised. They got lit up by JAX Sunday.

Lit up for 23 points. Now much of that ARob so hopefully Sammy can get those big plays. That said, the Fins offense hasn't been very good and isn't likely to force the Bills into having to throw the ball so much.
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Sammy Watkins' production has been largely disappointing since he entered the league. Always seems nicked up. Cant believe I started him over Lacy. The next time he sees my starting lineup will be when I am desperate for bye week coverage. Even then I may start Tavon Austin.

Edited by georg013
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His situation/opportunity is limited. If you didn't know that you should've. If he was getting 17 targets like Evans the points would be there. That said, if you look at the first 2 games its easy to break down his stat lines. In both the Indy/MIA games BUF rushed out to huge leads. Do you think he's gonna get targets and an opportunity for points in those cases? Hell no! Going forward he's strictly a game flow dependent wr3 w huge upside. Its gonna be tough picking which weeks to flex him and which weeks to sit him.

I'd love to see him in another situation but it is what it is. The good news is that Tyrod is a huge upgrade over what he's had and looks promising. I'm hoping they continue to grow together and we get to see Sammy shine. He's an elite talent waiting to erupt.

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