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Sammy Watkins the next Andre Johnson...


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23 minutes ago, Chaka said:

It also depends on how you measure the damage of a wasted early/mid round draft pick.

One missed pick isn't costing anyone a championship though.  Heck if someone told me I could forfeit my 3rd rounder and in exchange all of my other picks would stay healthy I would snap accept that.  Lots of ways to grab a spot starter to cover for a single guy.

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6 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

One missed pick isn't costing anyone a championship though.  Heck if someone told me I could forfeit my 3rd rounder and in exchange all of my other picks would stay healthy I would snap accept that.  Lots of ways to grab a spot starter to cover for a single guy.

One missed early/mid round pick ain't helping either.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 8/14/2017 at 0:40 PM, Hankmoody said:

Right, but that wasn't what you asked.  Watkins alone isn't going to cost anyone a league.

Yeah, pretty ridiculous statement/discussion that started this really.  Almost everyone has at least one if not multiple busts from the first few rounds on their team.

Here are some guys who went BEFORE Watkins last year via ADP.

Todd Gurley
DeAndre Hopkins
Allen Robinson
Dez Bryant
Rob Gronkowski
Eddie Lacy
Jamaal Charles
Brandon Marshall
Keenan Allen
Doug Martin
Alshon Jeffery
Cam Newton
CJ Anderson

That's literally 50% of the players picked before Watkins last year that ended up being busts.

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Quote

Sammy Watkins nabbed all five of his targets for 58 yards Sunday in the Rams’ Week 1 win over the Colts.

It was a nice debut for Watkins, who showed solid chemistry with Jared Goff despite having less than a month of practice time together. The Rams jumped out to an enormous lead thanks to a pair of pick-sixes and were able to kill clock by running the ball in the second half, which limited Watkins’ opportunities. We’ll see if Watkins draws Josh Norman in coverage next week against Washington.

Sep 10 - 8:35 PM

 

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i watched a bit of this game. 

i got giddy when they fed him twice early in the first few plays and i started fantasizing about having stretch run 2015 sammy back...

overall, his first performance was a bit of a mixed bag. goff looks competent, so the offensive pie is probably a bit bigger than most of us projected.

he had 4 targets/receptions in the 1st half. he only saw one more target (3rd quarter) after the game was decided.

i didn't see him on the field much in the 2nd half, but goff and gurley and kupp all kept getting reps. deep into the game.

on the one hand, that makes me feel like he's their "franchise receiver" and they're protecting him. on the other hand, considering he's new to the team and all the other major pieces continued to play together, i'd have liked him to get some more reps with the offense...

but i still feel like low end WR1 / high end WR2 is still a possibility here.

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2 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Based on some of the opinions on Watkins Ive seen in other threads and the terrible trade offers I'm getting, Watkins is a HUGE buy.

Watkins is in the Julio/AJ/ODB/Evans class of talent.  

People undervaluing him probably don't have a good concept of what a complete WR is, and you should take advantage of that in Dynasty. 

This!

I might wait a week and see if Norman gives him fits, then pounce. I think the talent of Sammy combined with the smarts of McVay will be $ in due time. Buffalo offense seems to be a sinking ship and the Rams offense is ascending, the trade looks to be for the better in the long run.

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Anybody trying to sell?

 

Quote

Sammy Watkins has NFL’s toughest schedule among wide receivers. Over the Rams’ first ten games, Watkins will face a murderer’s row of Josh Norman, Richard Sherman, Jalen Ramsey, Patrick Peterson, Janoris Jenkins, the Texans’ secondary, and Xavier Rhodes, then Peterson and Sherman again in the fantasy playoffs. I

 

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4 hours ago, dipandglide said:

Brutal day stat wise. Did anyone watch the game? 

Goff is terrified to throw downfield. Goff stares down his receiver from the moment the ball hits his hands. Doesn't progress through options well. And early on (obviously) is in love with Kupp. If I were an optimist, I'd say that he just needs more time playing with him to get more comfortable.

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On 9/15/2017 at 8:39 PM, kittenmittens said:

 

Watkins is in the Julio/AJ/ODB/Evans class of talent.  

 

People holding onto this sentiment are admirable.

4 years in, the guy is on the outside looking in of such lists even among his own WR draft class.

Edited by matuski
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4 hours ago, ShamrockPride said:

Goff is terrified to throw downfield. Goff stares down his receiver from the moment the ball hits his hands. Doesn't progress through options well. And early on (obviously) is in love with Kupp. If I were an optimist, I'd say that he just needs more time playing with him to get more comfortable.

Good post. He did have the nice play up the sideline to Everett and got the ball knocked out of his hands another time trying to wait for something. Part of the ardor for Kupp may come from the playcalling too. They got a nice gain on that short pass underneath to Watkins. I don't know if he's just running a lot of deep routes, but you would think they'd more overtly try to get the ball into Watkins' hands the way they run plays that appear designed for other guys.

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What should be remembered is that Watkins joined the team right at the end of training camp, so there hasn't been much time for Watkins and Goff to develop chemistry. To Goff's credit, he hasn't been forcing the ball to his receivers, but has he gains more confidence and gains that chemistry with Watkins, I would think those targets will go up considerably. Think Prescott and Dez last year when Prescott was very conservative last year and targeted Beasley a lot more than Dez in the early going.

Edited by zamboni
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10 hours ago, dipandglide said:

Brutal day stat wise. Did anyone watch the game? 

Yes--I watched the game--and Sammy didn't look bad.  You have to remember that Goff is a relatively inexperienced qb that is showing improvement--but still has a long way to go.   You also have to remember that Sammy came to the Rams at the very last minute and him and Goff are still trying to develop chemistry. You mix that in with the fact that Norman was shadowing Watkins a lot--and the only way Watkins would have had a good game is if he had one really big play on a busted coverage or something of that matter.  Heck--look at how quiet Norman kept Alshon week 1.   

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

Sounds like you look at stat lines but don't watch games. 

I'd love to give you the stat line argument, but again I can't say I've noticed one from Sammy in a couple years. 

Like I said, your sentiment is commendable at this point.  Admirable even.  

 

 

 

Edited by matuski
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4 hours ago, matuski said:

I'd love to give you the stat line argument, but again I can't say I've noticed one from Sammy in a couple years. 

Like I said, your sentiment is commendable at this point.  Admirable even.  

 

 

 

My sentiment is that he has elite talent.  If you watch him play when he is on the field it is blatantly obvious to anyone who knows how to discern good WR play from bad WR play. Other than staying healthy, I'd be curious as to how you are reaching your conclusion that he isn't an elite talent.  What doesn't he do well?  I'd love to hear your assessment.

I didn't think I needed to say that he has had trouble staying on the field - that's pretty apparent and nobody would deny it.

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I think at this point there's a legitimate question to be asked about whether he has "elite talent". Everyone assumes it to be so, no doubt in part because of college hype and his draft position in 2014. He's certainly a very good receiver but I don't know what he has shown that makes people put him in the OBJ/AB/Julio etc category (this is often stated to justify his high dynasty ranking). He's had a few big games with Tyrod throwing him the deep ball, but he doesn't have any amazing physical traits. He's benefited from the "if he could only stay healthy" excuse for a while so it will be interesting to see whether he can put together a full season on the field. If his output isn't great, there will be some who say that it's Goff's fault or he never was integrated into the offense enough. I have no doubt he will have some big games here and there, but it's quite possible that he's closer to a high end WR2 than a true focal point WR1 in the NFL.

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I admittedly wouldn't put him up there with Julio/Antonio/OBJ/Evans. But I would be willing to group him with the next tier down with Keenan/Amari/Alshon/Dez. His current situation with garbage QB play and a terrible offense really reminds me a lot of Hopkins and even AJ Green.

Edited by ShamrockPride
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I think AJ Green is a really good comparison - though I have Green right there with Julio and Antonio in terms of talent.  Green's situation is worse which hurts his numbers a bit, and as mentioned by others Watkins is in a really bad situation and not staying healthy doesn't look good.  Watkins and Green have a nearly identical athletic profile except for Green being taller.  Julio is a bit more of an athletic freak than the others guys mentioned, but maybe not quite as good of a route runner.

It's also worth noting that Watkins is only 3 months older than the Saints' Michael Thomas.  He's younger than everyone we're comparing him to here except Amari Cooper, who is also pretty damn high up on the elite talent list.

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13 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Yikes that schedule is rough, but what can you get?

 

i've had some people sniffing around in a 3 year contract league, mostly because his contract price is pretty low and he probably has some upside...

 

but nobody is making big offers and it seems they value him like a WR3.

 

so i think he's a definite hold in dyno formats. it's easy to see how his value could get back up to WR1 status as the year progresses but i have a hard time seeing how it can drop much lower...

Edited by strong
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19 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

My sentiment is that he has elite talent.  If you watch him play when he is on the field it is blatantly obvious to anyone who knows how to discern good WR play from bad WR play. Other than staying healthy, I'd be curious as to how you are reaching your conclusion that he isn't an elite talent.  What doesn't he do well?  I'd love to hear your assessment.

I didn't think I needed to say that he has had trouble staying on the field - that's pretty apparent and nobody would deny it.

This is the second post where you attempt to frame your knowledge of football as superior in some way.  Or that you are the only one watching the games each weekend. I love this schtick.  Never gets old. :thumbup:

What doesn't he do well?  Produce.  Live up to all the comparisons to greats, labels, and hype people like you heave upon him going on 4 years now.  

I'll leave you alone with your sentiment. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by matuski
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This guy fell on to me on a keep3 team this year. He's still in the top 24 dynasty rankings at fantasypros. I have never really gone after him, but he has produced 12 good/elite type games in his career in 37 games coming into the draft, which shows some promise considering he has never had a top10 passer. If he can continue to get 4+ elite type games a year coupled with just average 5-55 type games sprinkled in between he would be a nice addition from where he was drafted.

Can Goff get Watkins to that level of production?  I think people keep giving him a pass because of his past team/QBs and he still has youth.

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4 hours ago, matuski said:

This is the second post where you attempt to frame your knowledge of football as superior in some way.  Or that you are the only one watching the games each weekend. I love this schtick.  Never gets old. :thumbup:

What doesn't he do well?  Produce.  Live up to all the comparisons to greats, labels, and hype people like you heave upon him going on 4 years now.  

I'll leave you alone with your sentiment. 

 

Maybe my football knowledge is superior?   Certainly everyone on these forums does not have the exact same level of football knowledge.  

You condescendingly called out my statement that Sammy Watkins has elite talent (apologies if I took that the wrong way), and then defended your position with nothing other than saying he doesn't produce.   Production does not equal talent.

If you're watching Sammy Watkins play football and don't see anything close to elite talent, then I don't know what to tell you other than you don't know what you're talking about when it comes to WR play.  

 

Edited by kittenmittens
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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

Maybe my football knowledge is superior?   Certainly everyone on these forums does not have the exact same level of football knowledge.

You condescendingly called out my statement that Sammy Watkins has elite talent (apologies if I took that the wrong way), and then defended your position with nothing other than saying he doesn't produce.   Production does not equal talent.

If you're watching Sammy Watkins play football and don't see anything close to elite talent, then I don't know what to tell you other than you don't know what you're talking about when it comes to WR play.  

 

What does he do specifically that you would call elite?

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32 minutes ago, RushHour said:

What does he do specifically that you would call elite?

I wouldn't say he's elite at everything, but I think the combination of skills and athleticism that he has shown make him an elite talent overall at the position.  He has elite route running skills and is excellent on both short and long routes.  Very few WRs are so good at so many aspects of the game and have so few weaknesses.  Here is my assessment:

  • Route Running - ELITE
  • Catch Radius - ELITE
  • Athleticism - Excellent
  • Hands - Above Average
  • Footwork - ELITE
  • Body Control - ELITE
  • Release - Excellent
  • Height - Average
  • Strength - Excellent
  • Run After Catch - Excellent
  • Ball Tracking - ELITE
  • Blocking - Excellent
  • Football IQ - ELITE/Excellent
  • Maturity - Excellent
  • Durability - :(
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On 9/19/2017 at 8:36 PM, matuski said:

:lmao:  YES I love it!

:shrug:

On 9/19/2017 at 8:50 PM, matuski said:

The line for "woulda coulda shoulda been elitesTM" is long in the history of the NFL.

We were told ad nauseum Watkins was the most can't miss prospect in a decade.  Well, he missed.  Trading up for him was a disaster for the Bills.

 

He missed?  He's 24 years old.  

Edited by kittenmittens
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 I traded FOR Watkins in a 12 teamer "start 3 WR" league I am in a week ago.

I gave up Terrance West, for Sammy Watkins.

My RB depth was massive there after my draft,  the other owner was very RB needy.

Point is, after seeing him last week, I don't much know if I like this trade or not. (well, West is now gimpy, so there's  THAT)

Anyway, Watkins is now my WR3 there. I was looking for an upgrade over Marvin Jones. (Man I am not going to trot Jones out every week, I cut him promptly)

I really am not sold on Watkins.  Trust me, I know the talent is there, but he just isn't getting many targets.....although week 1 we can probably chalk up to game script.

So I own Watkins as my WR3 in one league, and I am rolling him out every week. But I am really trying not to get too excited just yet. NERVOUS is the more appropriate term.

 

 

 TZM

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39 minutes ago, TZMarkie said:

 

 I traded FOR Watkins in a 12 teamer "start 3 WR" league I am in a week ago.

I gave up Terrance West, for Sammy Watkins.

My RB depth was massive there after my draft,  the other owner was very RB needy.

Point is, after seeing him last week, I don't much know if I like this trade or not. (well, West is now gimpy, so there's  THAT)

Anyway, Watkins is now my WR3 there. I was looking for an upgrade over Marvin Jones. (Man I am not going to trot Jones out every week, I cut him promptly)

I really am not sold on Watkins.  Trust me, I know the talent is there, but he just isn't getting many targets.....although week 1 we can probably chalk up to game script.

So I own Watkins as my WR3 in one league, and I am rolling him out every week. But I am really trying not to get too excited just yet. NERVOUS is the more appropriate term.

 

 

 TZM

No risk involved when you're only giving up West and you have RB depth.

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7 hours ago, RushHour said:

No risk involved when you're only giving up West and you have RB depth.

 

 Of course.   It was essentially Watkins for basically FREE.

 

But the more I read and see this situation, it looks more and more like Watkins' upside might be capped.

 My main concern, is he ONLY got two targets, in a game which they lost.  That makes no sense to me.

I don't think  (nor do I expect) 12 targets a game, but I certainly see where 8 is pretty much mandatory. Especially in a close game where they wound up losing.

I can write off week 1 as game script, and he only got 5 targets.  But he went from 5 targets, in a game they won like they were playing pre-schoolers in a blowout.....to a closer game that they actually LOST and he had ONLY TWO TARGETS.

I'd like to hear the coaching explain that one.

(Just for the sake of being complete, I do realize that at least 2 of his targets were early on in week 1, so I can almost understand there being more targets that week, EARLY in the blowout)

 

If in the next two-three weeks, he gets say only 6 targets each week, and he has very good production on those, I will be looking to sell , sell, sell, to someone that is a believer. Regardless of how much talent he has, if he doesn't get the ball then it makes no difference.

The guy is one of the most talented playmakers in the game, and he is a WR1. Throw him the ball. Its really not rocket science.

 

 

TZM

Edited by TZMarkie
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