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Sammy Watkins the next Andre Johnson...


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6 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

:lmao:

You'd think people would have learned after the Kareem Hunt thread last week that there are two halves to a football game.

To be fair, through the first two and a half games, he was pretty underutilized. He won't be on too many benches going forward.

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1 minute ago, zamboni said:

To be fair, through the first two and a half games, he was pretty underutilized. He won't be on too many benches going forward.

Terrell Owens bouncing from team to team and achieving instant success made us forget that it normally takes a little while to gain chemistry and timing with the new QB/offense.

Cooper Kupp had the initial advantage because he had all of training camp to build chemistry and timing with Goff, but it looks like talent has won out.

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I think the buy low window for him closed tonight.   The question is now if you sell him high.  I think the Rams offense is looking more and more dynamic as the chemistry between Watkins and Goff grows.  Gurley is also running really well.   Looking at how the Rams offense is looking now--I personally see no reason why Watkins would not be worth at least as much as he was in early drafts when he was going in the 2nd+3rd rounds when he was on the Bills.   The Rams offense right now looks better than what most people thought the Bills offense was supposed to be at that time.  

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1 hour ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

I think the buy low window for him closed tonight.   The question is now if you sell him high.  I think the Rams offense is looking more and more dynamic as the chemistry between Watkins and Goff grows.  Gurley is also running really well.   Looking at how the Rams offense is looking now--I personally see no reason why Watkins would not be worth at least as much as he was in early drafts when he was going in the 2nd+3rd rounds when he was on the Bills.   The Rams offense right now looks better than what most people thought the Bills offense was supposed to be at that time.  

Its the Andrew Whitworth effect.  He makes the whole line tougher.  Look at Cincy after he left.  I think the Rams offense is on the upswing and Sammy has become the #1 redzone target, so I would never deal Sammy now unless blown away by the offer.

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6 hours ago, No. 4 said:

Sat him tonight after two weeks of nothing. Of course he blows up. 

 

6 hours ago, jtd13 said:

Yep. Pulled the trigger on Derrick Henry in the flex over Sammy at about 8PM. I felt smart at halftime...

 

6 hours ago, DirtyCashDylan said:

We all did. and it was the right move at the time.

I feel all your pain as well.  Next week i'll play him.  He'll put up a dud probably.  Such is the fantasy football life.

Edited by CentralPA
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1 hour ago, joey said:

I've successfully chosen incorrectly between Watkins and Martavis Bryant every week so far (though I guess Bryant could put up 2TDs this weekend). 

Hopefully this is a good sign of things to come for Watkins...

Sadly it never works out that both of the players you are choosing from play great.  I almost always choose the wrong one.

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50 minutes ago, Tool said:

Was thinking of trying to trade for him. Prob too late now 

Well, his price will certainly be higher than it was 12 hours ago, but there's a chance the Watkins owner in your league is one of the "one good game and I'll unload him" types. In which case you might still be able to buy low compared to potential future VBD. 

Doesn't hurt to sniff around.

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1 hour ago, GroveDiesel said:

Not really. He has put up decent numbers when he has been healthy no matter who the QB was. Gameplan did affect him some games too. But he played less than 100% quite a few games as well.

Kind of.  No concerns with Tyrod, that was pretty clear while he was there, but Goff was a new brand of scary.  He looked really bad last year and a lot like the kind of QB that Osweiler was that could kill a stud.  Going to LAR had all kinds of downgrade risks initially.  

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12 hours ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

I personally see no reason why Watkins would not be worth at least as much as he was in early drafts when he was going in the 2nd+3rd rounds when he was on the Bills.  

If somebody wants to give me this kind of value, I would probably break my mouse trying to accept it.

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12 hours ago, jtd13 said:

Yep. Pulled the trigger on Derrick Henry in the flex over Sammy at about 8PM. I felt smart at halftime...

That was 100% the right decision going into last night. Wouldn't have thought twice about it.

I'm just happy he and the Rams are starting to get it together. 

Still kind of surprised I drafted him at all, but the talent has never been in question.

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26 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

If somebody wants to give me this kind of value, I would probably break my mouse trying to accept it.

How so?  According to fantasy football calculator--these WR's had an adp of the 3rd; TY Hilton, Terrell Pryor, Deandre Hopkins, Demaryious Thomas, Alston and Crabtree.  While I might not put Sammy on the top of that list--he's certainly far from the bottom of it--and it's certainly not "mouse breaking" bad . 

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49 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

How so?  According to fantasy football calculator--these WR's had an adp of the 3rd; TY Hilton, Terrell Pryor, Deandre Hopkins, Demaryious Thomas, Alston and Crabtree.  While I might not put Sammy on the top of that list--he's certainly far from the bottom of it--and it's certainly not "mouse breaking" bad . 

Nothing against the player, but his usage by the Rams gives me great concern. A receiver would need some extreme talent to produce on Sammy's work load. 14 targets through 3 games; even his most heavily targeted game of 7 still doesn't cut it. And the Rams meanwhile have done pretty well as such. They have to pressing reason to change the formula. 

Except for Pryor, I would call any offer of the WRs mentioned a prayer answered.

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Watkins put those elite ball tracking skills on display last night.  That over the shoulder catch was beautiful. My favorite thing about Watkins is that his route running and zone beating skills are so good that he doesn't have to make a lot of contested catches even though he is fully capable of that.  When he does catch the ball away from the defenders he can put his run after catch skills on display.  Lots of great qualities that really compliment each other in Watkins' game.  

The guy is just a stud when he is on the field. 

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23 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Nothing against the player, but his usage by the Rams gives me great concern. A receiver would need some extreme talent to produce on Sammy's work load. 14 targets through 3 games; even his most heavily targeted game of 7 still doesn't cut it.

 

yeah. but probably not a great idea to simply analyze those targets per game in a vacuum. watkins came into camp really late and had only a few weeks to learn a playbook.

it's totally reasonable to expect usage to pick up as goff learns who his best receiver really is and sammy familiarizes himself with the new playbook and QB.

would you be surprised if sammy sat at 4.7 targets per game at season's end? i absolutely would be.

 

 

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57 minutes ago, strong said:

yeah. but probably not a great idea to simply analyze those targets per game in a vacuum. watkins came into camp really late and had only a few weeks to learn a playbook.

it's totally reasonable to expect usage to pick up as goff learns who his best receiver really is and sammy familiarizes himself with the new playbook and QB.

would you be surprised if sammy sat at 4.7 targets per game at season's end? i absolutely would be.

That's an interesting point. I buy that the Rams would ease in Watkins while he learns the new offense and gets familiar with his new team. Later in the year he should see more targets.

On the other hand, I don't see him getting into the 140 target range, or 8-9 targets/game. With Woods and Cupp playing well, and Gurley playing out of his mind - rushing and receiving, - Goff can continue to spread the ball around. He has the concerning preference to throw it short, not to Watkins. Game script hasn't yet forced Goff to go down field, but maybe they'll fall behind some games later in the season. :shrug:

I'd expect Watkins to get about 120 targets, with many of them the short to intermediate variety that Goff loves the throw. Through 3 games, I can only remember 1 deep ball to Watkins. 

 

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120 targets seems reasonable over 16 games. That would be 7.5 targets per game.

Watkins currently has an outstanding 92% catch rate on 14 targets. Much better than he had in Buffalo and his yards per reception of 14.9 is good, although slightly less than he averaged in Buffalo.

Over 3 games Watkins has 13.86 yards per target. With 120 targets this would be 1663 yards receiving.

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3 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

120 targets seems reasonable over 16 games. That would be 7.5 targets per game.

Watkins currently has an outstanding 92% catch rate on 14 targets. Much better than he had in Buffalo and his yards per reception of 14.9 is good, although slightly less than he averaged in Buffalo.

Over 3 games Watkins has 13.86 yards per target. With 120 targets this would be 1663 yards receiving.

i was just typing up something similar.

sammy was WR #20 on 96 targets in 2015 in only 13 games.

obviously, he's not catching 93% of his targets or averaging 13.8 yards per pass attempt going forward, but sammy has always been extremely efficient on a per target basis and that trend seems to continuing in LA.

if he ends up with around 120, i think there's a very good chance he'll be nibbling WR1 territory. and i don't see how he's out of the top 20 with that volume.

as a dyno sammy owner, i'd be very happy with that volume considering how bleak the outlook was for him going into the season (and how much i hated that dumpster fire of an offense he was stuck in).

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3 minutes ago, Dedfin said:

Anyone think last night was fools gold?  He went against the 49ers without their 2 best back 7 players.

He had one of the best games of his career. I think we just saw his ceiling. But his floor could be nice if he maintains this rapport with Goff. 

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5 minutes ago, Dedfin said:

Anyone think last night was fools gold?  He went against the 49ers without their 2 best back 7 players.

The Watkins formula remains the same: If he stays healthy, he usually produces.

Nobody scores from the bench.

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:thumbup:

I start him anyway, because the dread I would feel with him going for 30 points on my bench would be unbearable.  Glad I started him last night!  I think the argument of him needing to get up to speed on the offense makes sense to me.  I just don't want to get my hopes up for him to fizzle out.

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