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Sammy Watkins the next Andre Johnson...


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Yeah he isn't going to maintain 90% reception rate. Some of the best possession guys have managed 75% and Watkins will likely be lower than that with 100 or more targets.

It is 3 games though and so far so good aside from disappearing against Josh Norman. Which may be more about Goff than Watkins. Goff is going to take some time to trust Watkins on some of those more difficult throws and game plan may be to just avoid the best defensive back and get it to other players. We will get chances to test this against the Cardinals and Seahawks I think, although the Seahawks less likely to have Shrman shadow him that the Cardinals having Peterson do that I think.

1300 yards is likely more reasonable. 1100 of those yards remaining over 13 games is 85 yards per game. I think thats possible. With 80 or so receptions, which also seems possible if he gets 120 targets.

Maybe Watkins only gets say 100 or 110 targets over the year and catches 66% of them, would be 66-72 receptions, about 5 per game. I think he can do that. He would need more targets I think to catch 80 though. 120 is likely enough for him to hit that. At least so far he seems to be catching a lot more of his targets than he was in Buffalo.

Watkins has 2 TD over 3 games so .66 per game which would be double digit TD by the end of the season. I think he can do that too.

So using 72 receptions as the median projection, 14.9 ypr (this is below his career average of 16 ypr) 1072 yards and 10 TD or 239 fantasy points in PPR which is close to Crabtree last season who finished as WR 12.

There is upside here still from that projection. Downside of course is Watkins is injured again at some point.

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11 minutes ago, ATB said:

He had one of the best games of his career. I think we just saw his ceiling. But his floor could be nice if he maintains this rapport with Goff. 

 

he's gone off for 150 and one or two scores 4 times in his career. 

last night's game doesn't even make his top 5 in FF points and he's had more yards 10 times already in only 40 career games.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

I agree with Strong 100% on this one.

Sammy is going to demand targets and they should only increase as the season wears on, meaning more big games ahead.

That Goff is playing competently now is a huge bonus, and Gurley to keep defenses guessing is good for Watkins as well.

If he stays healthy, he's going to produce. Period! It all comes down to health with him moving forward. The talent is there and undeniable, all of the haters in here seem to forget that for some reason. It was only two seasons ago he won a lot of teams championships with his final 8 game flurry. This guy is easily in Evans and OBJ's class when healthy and given opportunity. 

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7 minutes ago, strong said:

 

he's gone off for 150 and one or two scores 4 times in his career. 

last night's game doesn't even make his top 5 in FF points and he's had more yards 10 times already in only 40 career games.

I said one of, not the the best. I doubt he does better in any game this year than he did last night. Which is fine. 

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9 minutes ago, dipandglide said:

If he stays healthy, he's going to produce. Period! It all comes down to health with him moving forward. The talent is there and undeniable, all of the haters in here seem to forget that for some reason. It was only two seasons ago he won a lot of teams championships with his final 8 game flurry. This guy is easily in Evans and OBJ's class when healthy and given opportunity. 

Yeah I always try to quantify things for fantasy, but when it comes to Watkins I am drafting the talent over situation big time. It's actually pretty simple for me.

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33 minutes ago, ATB said:

I said one of, not the the best. I doubt he does better in any game this year than he did last night. Which is fine. 

 

yeah. i guess i just wouldn't say one of his best games to refer to stats he eclipses about once every 8 games... 

and i will bet you all the internet points he has at least one other game over 20 points this year!

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5 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

Nothing against the player, but his usage by the Rams gives me great concern. A receiver would need some extreme talent to produce on Sammy's work load. 14 targets through 3 games; even his most heavily targeted game of 7 still doesn't cut it. And the Rams meanwhile have done pretty well as such. They have to pressing reason to change the formula. 

Except for Pryor, I would call any offer of the WRs mentioned a prayer answered.

Ty hilton without knowing the status of Luck vs Watkins is a prayer answered?   Hopkins qb situation is a prayer answered compared to Watkins? While I wouldn't fight too hard against anybody that likes those players better--calling them a prayer answered is beyond far fetched.  The fact that even you said that you might take Watkins over Pryor shows that you like him in the mix of 3rd rd wr's.   Watkins was going in the 3rd round of most leagues when people were drafting him on the expectation of him playing on the Bills.  What Goff and this new offense has shown in the first three games is that while they might not be the best offense in the league--they are definitely on the upswing--and pastures are looking greener here than they do in Buffalo.   His usage has been low--but he did arrive on the Rams last minute because of the trade and his chemistry with Goff is still a work in progress.   I fully expect him to get more targets as they learn each other more.  If you think otherwise--then your side of the argument makes clearer sense.  With that being said--I do want to make clear that I do think that Watkins will not be "dud" proof for the rest of the season.   He will inevitably have some quiet games--but I do think that last night showed that he still has elite upside.   

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38 minutes ago, matuski said:

Good game.  It is about what we have seen from him his career.

He is a good WR, good WRs have good games.  My beef isn't with him being good, it is with the desperate and persistent effort to label him elite.

I think people label him as being an elite talent--which is different than being an elite player.   An elite player will have a high floor and a very high ceiling--and many times--this is because they tend to be in elite situations.   An elite talent will have lower floors--but very high ceilings when their situations allow for it to happen.   If you were to put Watkins in the place of Michael Thomas, or Jordy Nelson--my guess is that his production would be amongst the elite group of wr's.  

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40 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

I think people label him as being an elite talent--which is different than being an elite player.   An elite player will have a high floor and a very high ceiling--and many times--this is because they tend to be in elite situations.   An elite talent will have lower floors--but very high ceilings when their situations allow for it to happen.   If you were to put Watkins in the place of Michael Thomas, or Jordy Nelson--my guess is that his production would be amongst the elite group of wr's.  

Your position seems to define "elite" talents based on potential... these are a dime a dozen in the NFL.

There are always "if this or if that's". 

 

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4 minutes ago, matuski said:

Your position seems to define "elite" talents based on potential... these are a dime a dozen in the NFL.

There are always "if this or if that's". 

 

I disagree.  Did you see the over the head catch that he made in last nights game?  You want to tell me that there are lots of WR's in the league that make that play?   The reality is that there are 32 teams in the NFL--and maybe there are 6-8 really elite qb's. Elite wr's that are lucky enough to play with those qb's will always have an advantage for production potential.   Do you think that Michael Thomas is actually more talented than Watkins?  I personally don't believe so--but he got drafted well ahead of Watkins in fantasy leagues because of his situation.   The point with Watkins is that the current situation with the Rams is not as desolate as many (including myself) expected it to be.  

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26 minutes ago, matuski said:

Your position seems to define "elite" talents based on potential... these are a dime a dozen in the NFL.

There are always "if this or if that's". 

 

Players with Watkins physical ability are a dime a dozen... but players who have that physical ability, plus advanced WR skills at the age of 20, plus the mental/attitude parts of the game Sammy has, are extremely, extremely rare. 

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9 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Players with Watkins physical ability are a dime a dozen... but players who have that physical ability, plus advanced WR skills at the age of 20, plus the mental/attitude parts of the game Sammy has, are extremely, extremely rare. 

Lets not go around this circle anymore.

If all you say is true, then he is a huge bust and underachiever.  With all the excuses that come with it.

Or he could just be a good WR. 

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58 minutes ago, matuski said:

Lets not go around this circle anymore.

If all you say is true, then he is a huge bust and underachiever.  With all the excuses that come with it.

Or he could just be a good WR. 

I'm not sure what I've said in particular that you dispute, but I don't know if it's possible to be both a good receiver and a huge bust.  Huge busts are out of the league by year 4.

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14 hours ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

Ty hilton without knowing the status of Luck vs Watkins is a prayer answered?   Hopkins qb situation is a prayer answered compared to Watkins? While I wouldn't fight too hard against anybody that likes those players better--calling them a prayer answered is beyond far fetched.  The fact that even you said that you might take Watkins over Pryor shows that you like him in the mix of 3rd rd wr's.   Watkins was going in the 3rd round of most leagues when people were drafting him on the expectation of him playing on the Bills.  What Goff and this new offense has shown in the first three games is that while they might not be the best offense in the league--they are definitely on the upswing--and pastures are looking greener here than they do in Buffalo.   His usage has been low--but he did arrive on the Rams last minute because of the trade and his chemistry with Goff is still a work in progress.   I fully expect him to get more targets as they learn each other more.  If you think otherwise--then your side of the argument makes clearer sense.  With that being said--I do want to make clear that I do think that Watkins will not be "dud" proof for the rest of the season.   He will inevitably have some quiet games--but I do think that last night showed that he still has elite upside.   

Nobody would take Hilton or Pryor in the third round of a draft today. So youre talking about players who aren't even third rounders anymore.

Hopkins on the other hand may have sustained some of his value. Unlike Sammy who is a talented player not heavily used, Hopkins has close to the most targets which should continue. Neither have the best quarterback but I will take the guy getting ball thrown to him.

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It looked like the Rams were loving the matchups with Kupp and Gurley.  Those guys are going to destroy linebackers in man coverage.  Goff did miss Sammy on a potential touchdown where Watkins sat down in a big hole in the zone.  It is very concerning how he can get so little attention from the offense. 

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Gotta remember he didn’t join the team til mid camp. There’s going to be some ups and downs as they build chemistry. Goff is doing the right thing in finding the open man and not forcing it.   

I’m not at all worried about the long term and will be trying to pounce on a frustrated Watkins owners.  

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4 hours ago, DarkKnightsGuru said:

Whats the Outlook here ..he's been like the stock market up then down ...any chance of cracking the top 20 rest of way 

More like the last beat of a heart on the machine that goes PING!

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Occam's Razor would indicate that Watkins was a decoy last week. 

He had a pretty good concussion and he's had a history of not playing well when he's not 100% anyway, so why risk it?

I think it's as simple as him being out there to force the defense to gameplan for him and to shift the defense when he's on the field. 

He's likely unleashed once again this week. I, for one, am rolling him out for his first start on my team of the year (partially bc of byes). 

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16 hours ago, DarkKnightsGuru said:

Whats the Outlook here ..he's been like the stock market up then down ...any chance of cracking the top 20 rest of way 

I finally cut bait and dumped him. I have been burnt by him so many times. Goff is spreading the ball around too much. Sammy had 1 good week. You can't expect the Rams offense to continue on this scoring pace for the remainder of the year. And even with it being so high right now, Sammy isn't getting much of the pie. I would have to imagine his outlook is getting worse by each passing week. He also will face some very tough DBs in the upcoming weeks. Probably one of the toughest WR schedules in the league moving forward (not just the defense's pass defense, but their #1 CB)

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9 hours ago, ATB said:

Occam's Razor would indicate that Watkins was a decoy last week. 

He had a pretty good concussion and he's had a history of not playing well when he's not 100% anyway, so why risk it?

I think it's as simple as him being out there to force the defense to gameplan for him and to shift the defense when he's on the field. 

He's likely unleashed once again this week. I, for one, am rolling him out for his first start on my team of the year (partially bc of byes). 

If you had any lingering effects from the concussion he would not have gotten out of the concussion protocol and wouldn't have been in the game at all.

Concussion protocol>>>>>Occam's Razor

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On 9/22/2017 at 2:58 PM, Biabreakable said:

Yeah I always try to quantify things for fantasy, but when it comes to Watkins I am drafting the talent over situation big time. It's actually pretty simple for me.

 

On 10/1/2017 at 11:58 PM, dkp993 said:

Gotta remember he didn’t join the team til mid camp. There’s going to be some ups and downs as they build chemistry. Goff is doing the right thing in finding the open man and not forcing it.   

I’m not at all worried about the long term and will be trying to pounce on a frustrated Watkins owners.  

Agreed and he was one of my prime trade targets. It's a good situation, but will take a while to gel.  

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10 hours ago, Tommy Collins said:

I finally cut bait and dumped him. I have been burnt by him so many times.

Likewise.

It was in a multi-player trade. Though it is likely the other owner viewed the trade differently than I, I had a price for each of my two players and my price for Sammy was Keenan.  All else being equal, I prefer the stable production of Allen to the (to this point) unpredictable scoring of Watkins especially with me thinking to myself, "With my luck, his 2 or 3 huge games this year will come on weeks that I'd have won anyway."  He's someone else's headache now.

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11 hours ago, Phantom Knight said:

Likewise.

It was in a multi-player trade. Though it is likely the other owner viewed the trade differently than I, I had a price for each of my two players and my price for Sammy was Keenan.  All else being equal, I prefer the stable production of Allen to the (to this point) unpredictable scoring of Watkins especially with me thinking to myself, "With my luck, his 2 or 3 huge games this year will come on weeks that I'd have won anyway."  He's someone else's headache now.

By "dumped him" I meant that I flat out released him. I'm surprised you were able to get Keenan Allen for him. That's excellent value

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1 hour ago, Tommy Collins said:

By "dumped him" I meant that I flat out released him. I'm surprised you were able to get Keenan Allen for him. That's excellent value

Wow. You are a braver man than I and my level of "dumped" pales next to yours!

There are still MANY who believe he is an elite wr who will produce at an elite level if he can remain healthy.

In my trade, I believe the other owner viewed it as a buy low opportunity, though that is just my guess.  That may prove to be correct. I am just glad to be done with the headache that Sammy has been.

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27 minutes ago, Phantom Knight said:

Wow. You are a braver man than I and my level of "dumped" pales next to yours!

There are still MANY who believe he is an elite wr who will produce at an elite level if he can remain healthy.

In my trade, I believe the other owner viewed it as a buy low opportunity, though that is just my guess.  That may prove to be correct. I am just glad to be done with the headache that Sammy has been.

He's gotten through the easy part of his schedule, and his production hasn't been there. It's only going to get tougher for Sammy. Goff is spreading the ball around as well. Cooper Kupp is outproducing Sammy at this point. He's due to come off Waivers tomorrow. I'm sure someone will take a flier on him, but when you're 1-3 and the middle of your draft looks like this (it's a 1 player keeper league so essentially these guys are 1 round later than you see), you make desperate moves:

2.(20)Isaiah Crowell (Cle - RB)

3.(21)Amari Cooper (Oak - WR)

4.(40)Spencer Ware (KC - RB)

5.(41)Kyle Rudolph (Min - TE)

6.(60)Andrew Luck (Ind - QB)

7.(61)Tevin Coleman (Atl - RB)

8.(80)Sammy Watkins (LAR - WR)

9.(81)Willie Snead (NO - WR)

 

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15 hours ago, Chaka said:

If you had any lingering effects from the concussion he would not have gotten out of the concussion protocol and wouldn't have been in the game at all.

Concussion protocol>>>>>Occam's Razor

I'm not sure that's what I implied... 

The fact that he was a decoy out there can be precautionary as well. Also, guys do pass concussion protocol with lingering effects. Albeit minor. But you have to remember, too, that concussions happen more often and much easier with more blows to the head after a recent concussion, so it stands to reason that a team would not force the ball to a recently concussed player if they didn't absolutely need them (and the Rams got on quite well without him last week). 

I still see the Rams being cautious with their relatively new toy as the Occam's Razor in this scenario. 

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17 minutes ago, Tommy Collins said:

He's gotten through the easy part of his schedule, and his production hasn't been there. It's only going to get tougher for Sammy.

But it should also only get easier as he continues to develop chemistry and timing with Goff.

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22 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

But it should also only get easier as he continues to develop chemistry and timing with Goff.

Sure, but when you're a young QB and your new WR that you haven't established much of a connection with is blanketed by excellent CBs each week, how often are you looking his way?

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wow. i wouldn't cut him. i'm still getting interesting offers. also, it seems unlikely that his value drops further in dyno than where it's been all preseason and now.

while i was hopeful after his big thursday night game that he was going to showcase that fringe WR1 we saw in 2014 & 2015, i'm back to where i was before: WR3 price and will give you good WR3 production with upside to be a lot more.

barring injury, i just don't see him slipping out of the top 30 by end of year.

i guess if it's an inactive league and people don't trade, then what's the difference...

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