Where's the love for Ka'Deem Carey?Posted: April 9, 2014 at 5:34 p.m.
I know the stopwatch isn't supposed to matter much in the evaluation process, but each year we see a talented prospect plummet down the charts because of a poor 40 time at the
NFL Scouting Combine. Although scouts repeatedly suggest that workouts are only a small piece of the evaluation puzzle, the numbers on the stopwatch prevents some from trusting what they witnessed with their own eyes.
During my time scouting with the
Carolina Panthers, I made the mistake of allowing the stopwatch to dictate my thoughts on a prospect's playing speed and pro potential when I changed my grade on
Brandon Browner -- who went on to become a
Pro Bowl CB -- after watching him post a pedestrian 40-time (4.63) at the combine. Despite grading Browner as a second-round talent based on my film study on the school visit, I changed my final grade after his disappointing workout in Indianapolis. While I wasn't alone in my assessment (Browner went undrafted in 2005 largely because of his questionable speed), I always regretted not sticking with my guns when he emerged as a
Pro Bowl player in Seattle.
That's why I continue to believe
Ka'Deem Carey will be a standout running back in the NFL despite his poor performance in the 40 in workouts. Although he is not an elite athlete, Carey is the most natural runner in the draft. He exhibits outstanding vision, balance and body control with the ball in his hands, yet is a violent runner who consistently runs through contact to fall forward at the end of runs. Carey's punishing running style belies his slender frame, but it is one of the reasons I believe he will excel as a feature back in a zone-based running scheme.
Watching Carey dominate the Pac-12 over the past two seasons, I'm convinced he excels largely because of his toughness, tenacity and physicality. He is best described as a grinder with a strong nose for finding creases in the middle of the defense on nifty cutbacks at the point of attack. Carey slithers into the open hole, but is also willing to punish defenders closing in for a big hit. By squarely delivering blows into the chest of would-be tacklers, Carey routinely falls forward at the end of the runs, which is critical to moving the chains at the next level.
From a production standpoint, I don't think there's any disputing Carey's effectiveness as a feature back at Arizona. He piled up 3,814 rushing yards and 42 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons, with 22 100-yard games during that span. More important, he has shown the ability to carry a heavy workload by averaging 26 carries per game the past two seasons. Even in a league where fewer running backs are being asked to carry the load, the fact that Carey has been an effective bell cow at the collegiate level will earn him high marks from coaches who covet tough-minded runners.
If there is a flaw in Carey's game, it is obviously his lack of breakaway speed. He lacks the speed, explosion and burst to score from anywhere on the field despite having a number of 20- and 40-plus-yard runs on his resume at Arizona. Although skeptics of Carey's game frequently cite his top-end speed as a major concern, it is important to note that the
Matt Forte and
C.J. Spiller tied for the league-lead with four runs of 40-plus yards (
Alfred Morris led the NFL with 10 20-plus yard runs). Thus, Carey's home-run speed shouldn't weigh heavily in the evaluation because of the lack of big runs that actually occur in pro games.
I must acknowledge Carey's character concerns possibly playing a role in his ranking on some boards. He faced an assortment of charges stemming from a domestic violence incident in 2012. Although the chargers were eventually dropped, Carey's involvement in that incident created concerns about his personality and behavior in the minds of evaluators. He also was kicked out of a basketball game in 2013 after a run-in with a police officer. It is possible that his slide down the charts is due to his behavioral issues. (Carlos Hyde and Jeremy Hill must also have to address some character issues to maintain their lofty rankings on draft boards around the league.)
Overall, I know that Carey's speed and character should play a role in his final evaluation, but I've been around the NFL long enough to know talent outweighs everything on draft day. Given Carey's production and natural running skills, I believe he should be in the conversation as one of the top running backs in the 2014 class, despite a slow 40-time that has scouts second-guessing their evaluations from the fall.