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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR)


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Hills value is based on the following situations:

Gio goes down BOOM you won the lottery

Blow out games, yes great value. (I don't think Hill gets the TD yesterday if Gio didn't come out of the game with the shoulder hit) I thought yesterday would be a blowout for cinni, you never know how teams will play

If I holding him for the injury card, I think I want Demarco M, back up more, that Dallas line is unreal

Hill has a low ceiling without an injury to Gio

Leagues with deep benches and 12 more more teams yes he is a hold. I don't see the value in ten team or 12 team with short benches

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If I holding him for the injury card, I think I want Demarco M, back up more, that Dallas line is unreal

Agree with much of what you said, except this.

Gio >>> Hill >>>>>>>>>>> Dallas backup RBBC

i.e. Hill is a much bigger lottery win than the Cowboy backups, IMHO.

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I don't really think people misunderstood, they just disagree. I think Hill's ceiling is much higher than you do.

Also, I don't put any stock in your "started" schedule. That's all going to be team specific, but I highly doubt he's in most starting line ups.

Every week I ask and every week people respond. I'm not making these up. Believe it or not, I'm interested in seeing if anyone can figure out a strategy for picking when to start the backup rb. So far, it seems like people are chasing points. We've gotten a couple responses since talking about other strategies. Maybe that will work better.
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I don't really think people misunderstood, they just disagree. I think Hill's ceiling is much higher than you do.

Also, I don't put any stock in your "started" schedule. That's all going to be team specific, but I highly doubt he's in most starting line ups.

Every week I ask and every week people respond. I'm not making these up. Believe it or not, I'm interested in seeing if anyone can figure out a strategy for picking when to start the backup rb. So far, it seems like people are chasing points. We've gotten a couple responses since talking about other strategies. Maybe that will work better.

You may not be making them up, but I'm pretty sure your sample size isn't large enough. According to yahoo, he was started by 15% of owners. CBS has it at 11%.

I own him in a dynasty. My strategy is to leave him on my bench all season until/unless there is a Gio injury, he earns a larger role, or I am forced to start him due to byes/injuries to my other RBs. That seems to be the same strategy as the vast majority of owners.

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I don't really think people misunderstood, they just disagree. I think Hill's ceiling is much higher than you do.

Also, I don't put any stock in your "started" schedule. That's all going to be team specific, but I highly doubt he's in most starting line ups.

Every week I ask and every week people respond. I'm not making these up. Believe it or not, I'm interested in seeing if anyone can figure out a strategy for picking when to start the backup rb. So far, it seems like people are chasing points. We've gotten a couple responses since talking about other strategies. Maybe that will work better.
You may not be making them up, but I'm pretty sure your sample size isn't large enough. According to yahoo, he was started by 15% of owners. CBS has it at 11%.

I own him in a dynasty. My strategy is to leave him on my bench all season until/unless there is a Gio injury, he earns a larger role, or I am forced to start him due to byes/injuries to my other RBs. That seems to be the same strategy as the vast majority of owners.

That's fine. The discussion this offseason was about using him as more than a backup rb. The people on this thread were higher on him than most, which is the sample size I'm interested in, some is precisely the people I was talking to this offseason. But if you've decided he's a pre backup rb/emergency start, I think youre right on target with my thoughts.
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I don't really think people misunderstood, they just disagree. I think Hill's ceiling is much higher than you do.

Also, I don't put any stock in your "started" schedule. That's all going to be team specific, but I highly doubt he's in most starting line ups.

Every week I ask and every week people respond. I'm not making these up. Believe it or not, I'm interested in seeing if anyone can figure out a strategy for picking when to start the backup rb. So far, it seems like people are chasing points. We've gotten a couple responses since talking about other strategies. Maybe that will work better.
You may not be making them up, but I'm pretty sure your sample size isn't large enough. According to yahoo, he was started by 15% of owners. CBS has it at 11%.

I own him in a dynasty. My strategy is to leave him on my bench all season until/unless there is a Gio injury, he earns a larger role, or I am forced to start him due to byes/injuries to my other RBs. That seems to be the same strategy as the vast majority of owners.

That's fine. The discussion this offseason was about using him as more than a backup rb. The people on this thread were higher on him than most, which is the sample size I'm interested in, some is precisely the people I was talking to this offseason. But if you've decided he's a pre backup rb/emergency start, I think youre right on target with my thoughts.

The discussion this offseason was mostly about the longer term (as it should be), so your informal poll of a couple of owners each week is meaningless. I drafted Hill in the early 2nd of a rookie draft and am very happy with that pick. Much happier than if I had take a guy like, say, Freeman there instead.

We may agree on his short term value, but you completely miss the mark on his ceiling IMO.

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If I holding him for the injury card, I think I want Demarco M, back up more, that Dallas line is unreal

Agree with much of what you said, except this.

Gio >>> Hill >>>>>>>>>>> Dallas backup RBBC

i.e. Hill is a much bigger lottery win than the Cowboy backups, IMHO.

I disagree. Randle would carry quite a good load in a good offense. Dunbar would take mostly COP and third-down.

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Personally, I think this 'higher expectation' that is being talked about stems from the initial hypothesis that Hill may immediately inherit the vast portion of BGEs carries.

Connected to this, there were also some questions marks running in to the season with Gio about whether or not he'd be used as a bell cow back. The answer was yes, so there has been a mild swing to the neg for Hill and pos to Gio from some very early and reasonable pontificating in the summer.

I drafted him in a re draft league and haven't started him one week so far. Perfectly happy to wait and see if Gio gets dinged up or if the Bengals start to lighten his load a little as we get to the murky depths of winter. There's a chance Hill becomes a solid flex play if he gets a little more action, but there's that upside that he could be an insta top tennish RB going forward if anything were to happen to Gio.

That's how I always viewed Hill anyway.

Edited by TartanLion
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What do you see changing this year for hill? Next year?

I don't have a crystal ball, but several things could change. Hill could earn more snaps by developing as a RB, learning the playbook, becoming better in pass pro, etc. Obviously a Gio injury would be the biggest boon to his value.

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I don't have a crystal ball, but several things could change. Hill could earn more snaps by developing as a RB, learning the playbook, becoming better in pass pro, etc. Obviously a Gio injury would be the biggest boon to his value.

So, a lot of people have made this basic argument over and over again. A couple things come to mind:

1) Yes, there's injury upside here. But that makes Hill no better than Knile Davis, Joeseph Randle, Carlos Hyde, probably Turbin... the guys who'd get meaningful looks (but perhaps not the whole pie) in good running offenses should the starter go down. Ownable, not startable.

2) I disagree about the "learning the playbook" thing. His intended touches (carries + targets) to date are 4, 17, 7, 6, 12. He is getting redzone and high impact touches. Obviously not as many as Gio. Hill is performing well enough in pass protection. Bottom line - I think he's got the trust of the coaches. His lack of touches isn't something that will get better as he "learns the playbook," because the coaches correctly see Gio as the better RB and thus the better guy to have around.

Over the first 5 weeks, Gio had 68 carries to Hill's 28. It's about as close to a 70/30 split as you can get, which seems to jive with what we see on the field. However, 30% of the Bengals' carries may actually be startable if you can pick the right games. Which is what Bostonfred has been trying to get at in the first place - how to predict when that 30% of the carries = quality fantasy production. Personally, my eye is on week 9 hosting the Jags.

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I don't have a crystal ball, but several things could change. Hill could earn more snaps by developing as a RB, learning the playbook, becoming better in pass pro, etc. Obviously a Gio injury would be the biggest boon to his value.

So, a lot of people have made this basic argument over and over again. A couple things come to mind:

1) Yes, there's injury upside here. But that makes Hill no better than Knile Davis, Joeseph Randle, Carlos Hyde, probably Turbin... the guys who'd get meaningful looks (but perhaps not the whole pie) in good running offenses should the starter go down. Ownable, not startable.

2) I disagree about the "learning the playbook" thing. His intended touches (carries + targets) to date are 4, 17, 7, 6, 12. He is getting redzone and high impact touches. Obviously not as many as Gio. Hill is performing well enough in pass protection. Bottom line - I think he's got the trust of the coaches. His lack of touches isn't something that will get better as he "learns the playbook," because the coaches correctly see Gio as the better RB and thus the better guy to have around.

Over the first 5 weeks, Gio had 68 carries to Hill's 28. It's about as close to a 70/30 split as you can get, which seems to jive with what we see on the field. However, 30% of the Bengals' carries may actually be startable if you can pick the right games. Which is what Bostonfred has been trying to get at in the first place - how to predict when that 30% of the carries = quality fantasy production. Personally, my eye is on week 9 hosting the Jags.

1) All of those guys are good stashes as well (although I think Hill would be better than Randle and Turbin)- not sure what your point is?

2) That's nice, but it's only your opinion. My opinion is that a rookie certainly can improve on weaknesses like pass pro and earn more trust/touches.

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Gio's AC sprain may be a minor concern as far as missing time, but could spook the Bengals a bit. It wouldn't be crazy for them to think they should scale back his work a little. I haven't seen them saying anything to that effect, just saying it would be a reasonable response.

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What do you see changing this year for hill? Next year?

Good question. He was a swing and miss for me this year. I expected the Bengals to AT LEAST give him BJGE touches.

It's really hard to say now. I think the hope is that it moves to a 50/50 split, and I don't think that's out of the question. But it's certainly not a given, obviously.

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Personally, I think this 'higher expectation' that is being talked about stems from the initial hypothesis that Hill may immediately inherit the vast portion of BGEs carries.

Connected to this, there were also some questions marks running in to the season with Gio about whether or not he'd be used as a bell cow back. The answer was yes, so there has been a mild swing to the neg for Hill and pos to Gio from some very early and reasonable pontificating in the summer.

I drafted him in a re draft league and haven't started him one week so far. Perfectly happy to wait and see if Gio gets dinged up or if the Bengals start to lighten his load a little as we get to the murky depths of winter. There's a chance Hill becomes a solid flex play if he gets a little more action, but there's that upside that he could be an insta top tennish RB going forward if anything were to happen to Gio.

That's how I always viewed Hill anyway.

:goodposting:

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Looking like he's becoming droppable in redraft leagues (unless he's your Gio handcuff). Rather see if the likes of Mason, BBrown, Shoelace or Dixon have a better chance of being a flex/starter by the end of the year. Quite unfortunate as I really like this kid.

I hope you're not saying that based on this last game. I think we just throw it out entirely. I guess it's good that Hill got 1/3 of the RB touches. If they put up any more stinkers like this, though, we have to downgrade the whole Cincy offense.

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Pedestrian class

Below average class

Underwhelming class

They are just not that good - that is why there was no 1st round pick.

Blah - blah - blah...

So many posters and professional writers here are missing the boat on this RB class!

This RB class is better than last years. It's a great year to get a RB - Sankey, Mason, Hill, Hyde, Freeman....... Not to mention West, Carey, Andre Williams, Storm Johnson, Crowell, Seastrunk, and McKinnon late

And you can get them so late because everyone is falling all over themselves to get WRs....

Hill and Mason are being drafted WAY TO LOW in rookie drafts!!

I just checked the footballguys Dynasty Rankings and 9 out of the top 40 ranked RBs are from the 2014 draft class. Man- 2014 was one hell of a stacked RB class...

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So I'm assuming people aren't starting him today, but a couple of you have been forced to spot start him. Is hill in the top 25 options for anyone? 40? Just trying to figure out where he's at on people's minds.

He is a well above average back who is very talented. A great long term dynasty play....

Look at McKinnon's situation now....

Victor Cruz tore his patellar - now OBJ is in a great situation.....

Things change - just draft talent and more often than not things will work out for you....

Your whole stance of "he has Gio in front of him" is a little obvious and tired.

Every team is going to be employing RBBC next year - everyone is going to have another guy...

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So I'm assuming people aren't starting him today, but a couple of you have been forced to spot start him. Is hill in the top 25 options for anyone? 40? Just trying to figure out where he's at on people's minds.

He is a well above average back who is very talented. A great long term dynasty play....

Look at McKinnon's situation now....

Victor Cruz tore his patellar - now OBJ is in a great situation.....

Things change - just draft talent and more often than not things will work out for you....

Your whole stance of "he has Gio in front of him" is a little obvious and tired.

Every team is going to be employing RBBC next year - everyone is going to have another guy...

That's a misrepresentation of my "whole stance". The issue want just gio. It was also aj green, Marvin jones, Mohammed sanu, Tyler eifert, Jermaine gresham... a ton of guys competing for pieces of the pre every week. For the lead back, a good offense could be a boon. But for a committee back, it really capped his upside. And for a committee back who is second fiddle between the 20s, and want getting receptions, he's a tight fit to even spot start because his value was so dependent on touchdowns.

That's what I said before the season, and I said that having guys like that cam derail your team because they tempt you to start them after a big game then do nothing and you end up chasing points. I called that roster poison, and was roundly mocked here, page after page. I said that ultimately, he was a high priced backup whose value would only spike if gio got hurt, and that paying full price for that value was a mistake when his price would go down after people saw what his role really was, so even if you really liked him, drafting him ahead of guys with a clearer path to starting carries was a mistake.

Now, it seems like people have mostly come around to my way of thinking on him. And I've addled repeatedly for help trying to figure out a way to predict these committee backs. I'm not here to be the thread villain, I'm actually interested in conversation about this stuff because a big part of the reason I avoid these types of players is that they're so hard to surat with any confidence. If I can learn something about when to start them is be very interested and would probably change my tune pretty quickly. I thought that had happened really in the season when jones and eifert went down because it would open up some td potential. That worked ok for a bit I guess.

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Giovani Bernard left Sunday's game with a fourth-quarter hip injury.

Although none have proven serious (yet), Bernard has now been banged up in three consecutive games. His return is considered questionable. Before exiting, Bernard had just 45 yards and a goal-line score on 16 carries, to go with two catches for two yards. Jeremy Hill is working as the feature back.
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That's a misrepresentation of my "whole stance". The issue want just gio. It was also aj green, Marvin jones, Mohammed sanu, Tyler eifert, Jermaine gresham... a ton of guys competing for pieces of the pre every week.

What?

Doesn't every team have other players on offense competing for "pieces of the pie every week". Is that collection of players anymore scary than what most backs have to "compete" with?

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Looking back to the beginning of the season i was thinking 12-15 carries a game and it just hasn't come close to that.

Same here. But to be honest, I think the Bengals might have to get Hill up to that level just to save Bernard's life. He's been getting killed weekly.

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Bernard didn't practice today (Wednesday). For those of us in bye/injury hell, Hill is looking like a decent option this week.

Fingers crossed that he gets the week off.

The looming Thurs game vs Cleveland could be a factor as well. I know it's the Browns but a short week to a 4-3 div opponent is at least some incentive to be cautious with Gio.

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Looking back to the beginning of the season i was thinking 12-15 carries a game and it just hasn't come close to that.

Same here. But to be honest, I think the Bengals might have to get Hill up to that level just to save Bernard's life. He's been getting killed weekly.

Hope Gio plays ... I need Hill for week 10 / 11 byes :topcat:

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That's a misrepresentation of my "whole stance". The issue want just gio. It was also aj green, Marvin jones, Mohammed sanu, Tyler eifert, Jermaine gresham... a ton of guys competing for pieces of the pre every week.

What?

Doesn't every team have other players on offense competing for "pieces of the pie every week". Is that collection of players anymore scary than what most backs have to "compete" with?

Yes? Aj green is elite. Bernard appears to be a stud. Jones was an absurd red zone target last year. Sanu had flashed the talent that he's shown this year m they have two first round picks at tight end. No, most teams don't have that kind of offensive talent.

But for the ones that do - I don't want the committee back who isn't the receptions guy or outside runner. And while I know that he is a capable recorder and has more than enough ability to run outside, when the coaches draw up the plays, they're thinking of gio, not hill. It's kind of like James starks. He's having a great year, he's managed to carve out a role, but it really doesn't matter because you wouldn't want to start him.

It's not the amount of talent alone. It's the combination of all those things that hurts him. Still, if gio gets hurt - and he may already be - then he has a ton of short term value. Until then, he's basically unstartable, but will put up just enough points once in a while to tease people into starting him.

Edited by bostonfred
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A lot of this comes down to how hurt gio is. If the Bengals think they can win with hill, I'm sure they'd rather not put gio in more than they have to. Nfl teams don't usually buy in to the idea of easy wins, and the jags are capable of putting a scare into them. But I can see them giving hill a lot of work this week even if gio starts. High ceiling, low floor play this week imo.

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What has Gio done to suggest he is a stud?

averaged over 4 yards per carry last year and again this year, caught 56 passes last year in a timeshare and on a similar pace this year, scored 8 tds as a rookie and on pace for 11+ this year, earned the starting role on a playoff caliber team that was recently 8 to 1 to win the superbowl, in large part because of how good the offense was doing, and contributed 1200 of the Bengals 4300 offensive yards last year and 625 of their 2470 this year, good for over a quarter of their total offensive output.
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